Nesta pesquisa foi estudada a prática de prospecção do futuro (estudos do futuro) como suporte à busca de informações para a decisão empresarial. Dentre os objetivos da pesquisa se encontram a busca de associações entre os métodos de prospecção e as diferentes categorias de informação, a avaliação da importância atribuída à atividade de prospecção, a identificação da frequência de uso e dos horizontes de tempo para os quais os métodos são utilizados, bem como a obtenção do grau de satisfação percebida com os resultados obtidos. A pesquisa é realizada por metodologia mista, quantitativa e qualitativa. Foram feitos levantamento de dados quantitativos e estudos de casos, e os resultados foram analisados de forma complementar. Na amostra de respondentes foi identificado que há associação entre a categoria da informação que está sendo prospectada e os métodos de estudos do futuro. Determinados métodos são mais utilizados para algumas categorias de informação, a exemplo do método de Cenários para buscar informações sobre Política e Sociedade. Por outro lado, determinadas combinações apresentaram menor uso, como o método Roadmap Tecnológico para buscar informação sobre Tecnologia. É atribuída elevada importância para a prospecção do futuro. Tal avaliação depende do tipo de decisão ser estratégico ou tático, e este último fator também influencia a frequência em que a atividade é praticada. O horizonte de tempo da prospecção também está associado aos métodos, sendo que Cenários apresenta maior uso para horizontes de mais de cinco anos. Há métodos que apresentam maior satisfação dos respondentes da amostra, sendo eles: Cenários, Previsões e Projeções de Executivos e Pesquisas de Mercado. Os métodos mais praticados são os que apresentam a possibilidade de interatividade pessoal, como Cenários e Previsões e Projeções de Executivos. Por outro lado, os métodos mais objetivos, como os que utilizam modelos matemáticos e os que possuem metodologia mais estruturada, não figuraram entre os mais praticados. Nos casos estudados foi identificado que os métodos mais praticados são baseados em opinião e julgamento e utilizam a interatividade pessoal como principal forma de condução. Houve também preocupação manifestada sobre a necessidade de estruturação da atividade nas empresas e sobre a prática da mesma seguindo recomendações metodológicas. / The use of future studies methodologies to provide information for decision making has been studied in this research. The objectives of the research are to analyze the association of methods to different information categories, to evaluate the importance of future studies, to identify the frequency of use of future studies and the time horizon in which the methods are used in searching information, and to gather users perceived satisfaction with the results. The research is implemented through a mixed-methods methodology, quantitative and qualitative. Quantitative survey and case studies have been made and combined results have been analyzed in a complementary approach. Results from the sample indicate that there is an association of methods with information categories. Some methods are more used to deal with some information categories, e.g. Scenario method with Political and Social information. On the other hand, some method-information category combinations are less used, e.g. Technology Roadmap method with Technology. Evaluation of the importance of future studies is high and depends on the decision type to be strategic or tactical. These types of decision influence the frequency of use of future studies methodologies. Time horizon is associated to methods, as in Scenario method to time horizons greater than five years ahead. There are methods with higher satisfaction ratings: Scenario, jury of Executive Opinion and Market Survey. The most used methods are the ones with high personal interaction possibility, e.g. Scenario and jury of Executive Opinion. On the other hand, objective methods, as those that make use of mathematical techniques or more structured methodologies are not among the most used. In the case studies results, methods based on judgment and opinion with high personal interaction are the most used. There were concerns about the need for more structure to deal with future studies in the company and also about its practice in accordance with methodological recommendations.

Avaliou-se prospectivamente 19 pacientes com obstrução infravesical por hiperplasia prostática benigna selecionados pra prostatectomia transvesical. Obteve-se um fragmento da parede da bexiga e quantificou-se o colágeno no epimísio, perimísio e endomísio do detrusor. Amostra vesicais de oito doadores cadavéricos de órgãos serviram como controles. Observou-se padrão focal de aumento do colágeno na camada muscular da bexiga dos pacientes com obstrução. Demonstrou-se que a idade correlaciona-se positivamente com o aumento da quantidade de colágeno com a diminuição da complacência vesical, o aumento da prevalência de hiperatividade detrusora e a maior chance de retenção urinária / We prospectively evaluated 19 patients with bladder outlet obstruction by benign prostatic hyperplasia selected for transvesical prostatectomy. A sample of the bladder wall was obtained and the collagen was measured at the level of epimysium, premysium and endomysium. Bladder samples from eight cadaveric organ donors were used as controls. A focal pattern of collagen increase was observed at the bladder smooth muscle layer of obstructed patients. Age was shown to correlate with increased collagen quantity. Increased collagen quantity also correlated with decreased bladder compliance, higher prevalence of detrusor overactivity and of urinary retention

Foram estudados prospectivamente os linfonodos, em 19 pacientes com adenocarcinoma de reto distal através de tomografia pélvica e linfocintilografia pélvica e realizado o estudo comparativo dos métodos, tendo como base à anatomia patológica e o estadiamento clinico-cirúrgico. Foram comparados os exames obtendo-se que os métodos não são concordantes. E a linfocintilografia é método mais sensível para linfonodos do que a tomografia / They were studied prospectivamente the lymph nodes, in 19 patient with adenocarcinoma of distal rectum through pelvic tomography and pelvic lymphoscintigraphy and accomplished the comparative study of the methods, having as based to the pathological anatomy and the staging practise-surgical. It compared the exams to each other obtaining itself that the methods are not concordant. And the lymphoscintigraphy is more sensitive method for lymph nodes than for

Desde o primeiro choque do petróleo, em 1973, os países têm despendido esforços para reduzir sua dependência pelo produto, produzido principalmente em regiões politicamente instáveis. Os Estados Unidos são os maiores consumidores mundiais do combustível, e cerca de 70% são destinados ao transporte. Desde o final da década de 70, o governo americano tem incentivado o uso de etanol como substituto parcial da gasolina. No entanto, o crescimento do biocombustível levantou polêmicas porque a matéria-prima utilizada na sua produção no país é o milho, o que poderia estar afetando a oferta do grão para a produção de alimentos. Dessa forma, foi aprovado em 2007 o RFS2, uma legislação que prevê o consumo mandatório de volumes crescentes de etanol até 2022, mas limita a produção a partir de milho. Os investimentos em pesquisas de combustíveis alternativos passaram a se focar no desenvolvimento de etanol de segunda geração, que utiliza material celulósico como matéria-prima. Sua viabilidade técnica já foi confirmada, mas ainda são necessárias melhorias no processo de produção para que o produto possa ser ofertado em escala comercial. Por outro lado, o Brasil tem uma indústria de etanol madura e também tem feito pesquisas na tecnologia de segunda geração. Se bem sucedida, o país tem planos de exportar o excedente de produção, e os Estados Unidos são um mercado de interesse. O objetivo desta dissertação é auxiliar na avaliação das necessidades de os Estados Unidos importarem etanol de outros países, o que pode criar uma oportunidade para o Brasil. Para isso, foi utilizada a abordagem lógico-intuitiva de construção de cenários - voltada a aspectos qualitativos - para estudar o mercado de etanol combustível nos Estados Unidos até o ano de 2022. A coleta de informações foi feita por meio da revisão bibliográfica, focada em artigos internacionais. A política energética americana e a evolução da tecnologia de segunda geração de etanol foram identificadas como as principais incertezas que devem moldar o futuro do mercado em estudo. A partir delas, foram gerados quatro cenários, nomeados como \"Filho pródigo\", \"Pais esperançosos\", \"Filho independente\" e \"Filho preterido\". Concluiu-se que, enquanto o governo americano continuar incentivando o consumo de etanol, haverá boas oportunidades de exportação do biocombustível brasileiro. Os maiores volumes são esperados em \"Pais esperançosos\". Por outro lado, caso outras alternativas energéticas sejam priorizadas, nossas exportações podem reduzir substancialmente, e o volume comercializado dependerá do preço do nosso produto em relação ao deles e à gasolina. / Since the first oil shock in 1973, countries have made efforts to reduce their dependence on the product, mainly produced in politically unstable regions. The United States is the world\'s largest consumer of the fuel, and about 70 % is allocated to transport. Since the late 70s, the U.S. government has encouraged the use of ethanol as a partial substitute for gasoline. However, the growth of the biofuel arose controversy because the raw material used for the domestic production is corn, which could be affecting the supply of the grain for food production. Thus, it was approved in 2007 the RFS2, a legislation that requires mandatory use of increasing volumes of ethanol until 2022, but limits production from corn. Investments in alternative fuels research started to focus on the development of second generation ethanol, which uses cellulosic material as feedstock. Its technical feasibility has been confirmed, but improvements are still needed in the production process so that the product can be offered on a commercial scale. On the other hand, Brazil has a mature ethanol industry and is also doing research on second-generation technology. If successful, the country plans to export the surplus production, and the United States is a market of interest. The objective of this thesis is to assist the assessment of the United States needs to import ethanol from other countries, which may create an opportunity for Brazil. The logical-intuitive approach of scenario building - focused on qualitative aspects - was used to study the market for fuel ethanol in the United States until the year 2022. Data collection was done through literature review, focused on international articles. The U.S. energy policy and developments in the technology of second generation ethanol were identified as the major uncertainties that are shaping the future of the market under study. Four scenarios were generated from these two uncertainties and named as \"Prodigal Son\", \"Hopeful parents\", \"Independent Son\" and \"Deprecated Son\". It was concluded that while the U.S. government continues to encourage the consumption of ethanol, there are good opportunities to export the Brazilian biofuel. The largest volumes are expected in \"Hopeful parents\". On the other hand, if other energy alternatives are prioritized, our exports can reduce substantially, and sales volume will depend on the price of our product relative to theirs and gasoline.

Développée dès la fin des années 1960 en France à partir de l’application des principes de la prospective, issus des travaux du philosophe Gaston Berger, à l’aménagement du territoire, la prospective territoriale fait aujourd’hui l’objet de nombreuses démarches tant au niveau étatique qu’au niveau des collectivités territoriales. Cette recherche propose d’interroger le sens des pratiques hétérogènes auxquelles elle a donné lieu, et entreprend pour ce faire de dénaturaliser la prospective devenue, au gré de ses différentes traductions dans les mécanismes de la décision publique, un « objet » aux contours imprécis. Nous proposons d’appréhender la prospective, d’abord présentée par Berger comme une « technique rationnelle » œuvrant à rendre l’action efficace pour l’homme, comme un « instrument de gouvernementalité » ou encore un « instrument d’action publique » producteur de normes (et en particulier de normes territoriales), ainsi que de mettre en exergue les conséquences des métamorphoses de la régulation politique sur l’état de cet « instrument prospective » et ses effets. En tant que rationalité cognitive (mode de connaissance du territoire), la prospective territoriale semble d’une part opérer un retour à la question anthropologique : elle se fait sociétale, toujours plus attentive aux pratiques spatiales. En tant que rationalité politique (mode d’administration de l’institution et du territoire), ses démarches deviennent d’autre part le lieu d’une mise à l’épreuve des catégories démocratiques encore liées à l’idéal moderne du territoire. Il appert ainsi que l’examen des dispositifs de prospective territoriale présente un intérêt pour l’analyse de la dimension spatiale de l’action politique, comme pour celle des modalités évolutives de l’action publique. / Territorial Foresight Studies, developed in France at the end of the 1960s based on the application of philosopher Gaston Berger’s work to territorial management, has today become an area for numerous approaches at the state level as well as at the level of regional and local authorities. This thesis proposes to question the meaning of the heterogeneous practices to which it has given rise, and undertake, to that end, to denaturalize Foresight Studies which have become, in their various translations into the mechanisms of public decision, an “object” of imprecise outline. We propose to understand Foresight Studies, first presented by Berger as a “rational technique” working to render action effective for Man, as an “instrument of governmentality”, or again, an “instrument of public action” productive of norms (and in particular territorial norms), as well as to underline the consequences of the metamorphoses in political regulation on the state of this “foresight tool” and its effects. As a cognitive rationality (a mode of knowledge about territory), territorial foresight appears, on the one hand, to prepare for a return to the anthropological question: it becomes societal, ever more attentive to spatial practices; yet as political rationality (a mode of institutional and territorial administration), its approaches become, on the other hand, the site at which are tested democratic categories still tied to the modern ideal of territory. Evidently, the examination of apparatuses of territorial foresight are of interest for the analysis of the spatial dimension of political action, as well as for the evolutionary modalities of public action.

In this project we evaluated the perception of speedin a driving simulator. The study provides a preliminary survey that focuses onhow human beings can perceive moving in space. We have developed and implemented some techniques to study how we modify the perception of speed in adriving simulator. We targeted the driving perspective, trying to create certain effects in order to affect the perceived sense of speed. Changing the contrast of the scene we studied how the perception of the speed has been modified. Testing this modification we saw a change in the perception of the speed by the driver, who noticed an increase of the perceived speed through the alteration of the contrast of the scene.

Planet Earth seen from outer space, as shown by numerous satellites photographs, reveals an impressive beauty. What is the cause of such beauty? Surely it is water. Throughout the centuries, the complexity of the multiple uses of water by man increased and produced an enormous set of degradation and pollution. On the other hand, the excessive multiple uses and permanent extractions for diverse means has decreased, considerably, the availability of water and has produced many problems of scarcity in many regions and countries. In 2004, after announcing an investment of 3 billion reals (approximately 1.6 billion dollars) in forestry and the opening of a cellulose industry for the manufacturing of paper in the southern half of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Votorantim Celulose e Papel, began to be criticized. The main criticisms claim that eucalyptus is an exotic specie which increases water deficit, reduces soil fertility and pH, frightens the fauna, the plantations form great landed estates and monoculture, presents little contribution for the generation of jobs, provokes rural exodus, diminishing property value and which could cause a serious environmental damage in Rio Grande do Sul. This paper shows subsidies for discussion and elaboration of prospective scenarios, about matters related to hydric, social, economic, environmental, technological, political and legal resources, previewing a temporal horizon of the year of 2020, for the Ibicuí River Hydrographic Basin. Key points were identified through future bearer events and the perception of the principal factors which influence the current system. The general objective of research is to evaluate the perception of the involved factors on the effects caused by the substitution of the use of the soil for eucalyptus in relation to hydric resources, motivating a stage setting as a tool for the management strategy and basing committee decision planning, with the intuition to avoid future surprise and unpredictability. It was used the "Grumbach method" and the "Lince method" obtaining as result three sceneries More Probable Scenery, Ideal Scenery, Scenery of Tendency. / O planeta Terra visto do espaço, como mostram as inúmeras fotos de satélite, revela uma beleza impressionante. Qual é a causa da beleza? Seguramente é a água. Através dos séculos, a complexidade dos usos múltiplos da água pelo homem aumentou e produziu enorme conjunto de degradação e poluição. Por outro lado, os usos múltiplos excessivos e retiradas permanentes para diversas finalidades têm diminuído consideravelmente a disponibilidade de água e produzido inúmeros problemas de escassez em muitas regiões e países. Em 2004, após anunciar o investimento de R$ 3 bilhões em florestamento e a abertura de uma indústria de celulose para a fabricação de papel na Metade Sul, a Votorantim Celulose e Papel (VCP), passa a ser criticada. As principais críticas alegam que o eucalipto é uma espécie exótica que aumenta o déficit hídrico, reduz a fertilidade e o pH do solo, afugenta a fauna, as plantações formam grandes latifúndios e monocultura, apresenta pouca contribuição na geração de emprego, provocam o êxodo rural reduzindo o valor da propriedade e que causariam um grave dano ambiental no Rio Grande do Sul. Neste trabalho são apresentados subsídios para que se discuta a elaboração de cenários prospectivos, sobre as questões relacionadas aos recursos hídricos, sociais, econômicos, ambientais, tecnológicos, políticas, e legais, vislumbrando um horizonte temporal do ano 2020, para a Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Ibicuí. Foram identificados os pontos chaves do estudo através de eventos portadores de futuro, e a percepção dos principais atores que influenciam o sistema no presente. O objetivo geral deste estudo foi o de avaliar a percepção dos atores envolvidos sobre os efeitos causados pela substituição do uso do solo pelo eucalipto com relação aos recursos hídricos, motivando a cenarização como uma ferramenta para o planejamento estratégico de gestão e de decisão do comitê de bacia, com o intuito de evitar surpresa e imprevisibilidade de futuro. Foi utilizado o Método Grumbach e o Método Lince obtendo como resultado três cenários Cenário Mais Provável, Cenário Ideal, Cenário de Tendência.

Dans cette thèse nous avons étudié le stade débutant de la maladie d'Alzheimer par deux approches distinctes. D'un point de vue fondamental, nous avons étudié le rôle des oligomères d'Aß dans un modèle d'injection intracérébrale de ces espèces solubles chez la souris sauvage. Nous avons notamment montré que ces injections engendraient chez l'animal des désordres mnésiques aigus et réversibles qui s'apparentent à la maladie d'Alzheimer. Nous avons aussi mis en évidence une diminution d'expression d'une protéine post-synaptique (PSD95), une augmentation de la phosphorylation de la protéine Tau et une hyperactivation neuronale induites par ces injections, Ces modifications histo-fonctionnelles généralisées concordent avec le profil de dissémination diffus des solutions peptidiques injectées comme en atteste la mise en évidence de peptide Aß dans des régions distantes du site d'injection en immunohistochimie mais aussi en spectrométrie de masse. D'un point de vue clinique nous avons étudié la valeur du Rappel Libre/Rappel Indicé 16 items (RLRI16), un test de mémoire épisodique, au sein d'une cohorte de patients consultant pour une plainte mnésique ayant participé à un essai thérapeutique multicentrique national. Dans cette cohorte, le RLRI16 s'est avéré être le meilleur prédicteur de la survenue d'une démence d'Alzheimer probable dans les 5 ans qui ont suivi son administration. Le grand nombre de participants, la durée de l'étude et le mode de recrutement (par les généralistes) nous ont permis de proposer des valeurs seuils qui pourront aider le clinicien dans sa pratique quotidienne et permettront de définir des critères d'inclusion dans de nouveaux essais thérapeutiques. / We studied the early phase of Alzheimer’s disease with two approaches, experimental and clinical. Firstly, experimentally, we injected Aβ oligomers in the brain of wild type mice. We showed that these soluble species elicited memory impairment reminiscent of those found in AD although in our case they were both acute and reversible. We also evidenced a decrease in the expression of a postsynaptic protein (PSD95), an increase in the phosphorylation of Tau and a neuronal hyperactivity one week after these injections. These histo-functional changes were observed throughout the brain. The diffusion of the Aß injectate shown by immunohistochemistry and by mass spectrometry imaging was widespread. Clinically, we confirmed the usefulness of a memory test, the Free and Cued Selective Reminding Test (FCSRT) to predict the risk of dementia of the Alzheimer’s type (DAt) up to 5 years prior to its onset. This was made possible by the study of a cohort of patients who consulted for memory complaints and were then included in a multicentric national clinical trial conducted in France. In this cohort, the FCSRT proved to be the best predictor of the further conversion to a DAt. The large number of participants, length of the follow-up and recruitment type (mainly by the general practitioners) allowed us to derive thresholds to be used by clinicians in their daily practice or as inclusion criteria in new clinical trials.

The major goal of this dissertation is to enhance software security by provably correct enforcement of in-depth policies. In-depth security policies allude to heterogeneous specification of security strategies that are required to be followed before and after sensitive operations. Prospective security is the enforcement of security, or detection of security violations before the execution of sensitive operations, e.g., in authorization, authentication and information flow. Retrospective security refers to security checks after the execution of sensitive operations, which is accomplished through accountability and deterrence. Retrospective security frameworks are built upon auditing in order to provide sufficient evidence to hold users accountable for their actions and potentially support other remediation actions. Correctness and efficiency of audit logs play significant roles in reaching the accountability goals that are required by retrospective, and consequently, in-depth security policies. This dissertation addresses correct audit logging in a formal framework. Leveraging retrospective controls beside the existing prospective measures enhances security in numerous applications. This dissertation focuses on two major application spaces for in-depth enforcement. The first is to enhance prospective security through surveillance and accountability. For example, authorization mechanisms could be improved by guaranteed retrospective checks in environments where there is a high cost of access denial, e.g., healthcare systems. The second application space is the amelioration of potentially flawed prospective measures through retrospective checks. For instance, erroneous implementations of input sanitization methods expose vulnerabilities in taint analysis tools that enforce direct flow of data integrity policies. In this regard, we propose an in-depth enforcement framework to mitigate such problems. We also propose a general semantic notion of explicit flow of information integrity in a high-level language with sanitization. This dissertation studies the ways by which prospective and retrospective security could be enforced uniformly in a provably correct manner to handle security challenges in legacy systems. Provable correctness of our results relies on the formal Programming Languages-based approach that we have taken in order to provide software security assurance. Moreover, this dissertation includes the implementation of such in-depth enforcement mechanisms for a medical records web application.

Since 2000, the educational landscape in South Africa has been undergoing immense changes, which have impacted on the perceptions and consumer behaviour of prospective students. Public tertiary institutions were merged during the period 2000-2004 to form new institutions, while a National Qualifications Framework (NQF) was implemented to regulate the programmes that should be provided by tertiary institutions. Due to the above changes, universities and technikons (now known as universities of technology) have been reorganised to meet the needs of different target markets in South Africa (Department of Education, 1998:19-20). In the Cape Metropole, there are now three FET colleges and four universities. There were previously nine of the former and five of the latter. All the current institutions continue to serve the same geographical area as before, while continuing to recruit students from the same target market. Against these changes in the market place, the objective of this study was to determine what the information needs and preferred sources are of high school learners in the Cape metropole, and what definitive subgroups exist within this target market, in order to develop a tailor made IMC plan to effectively reach this market. A review of the literature shows that limited studies have been carried out to measure the high school learner’s information needs regarding further study (Bruwer, 1996; Gaika, 2002; Imenda&Kongolo, 2002). Certain studies have focussed on the perceptions of students attending a university or a technikon. Studies on Further Education and Training colleges have evaluated marketing strategies from the perspective of internal publics, but have not researched the actual information sources used by the market at whom the strategies are aimed. The main component of the research was quantitative empirical research, using questionnaires to determine the information sources high school learners use, the factors they consider important when selecting a tertiary institution and their specific characteristics. Grade 11 learners residing in the Cape Metropole were surveyed, using their secondary schools as the disseminating and surveying point. Nineteen schools in the above areas were surveyed, and just over 920 surveys were administered. It was found that five distinct subgroups exist within the target market, each sharing similar information needs and source preferences when obtaining information about attending a tertiary institution. This information was suitable to be used in proposing an IMC plan for a tertiary institution within the Cape Metropole. Information needs of different subgroups were found to be varied. Information is not limited to only one type of need for the entire target market, but it is recognised that subgroups value certain types of information in order to make decisions about studying further. These needs seem to be impacted by the individual’s socio-economic circumstances, needs that the potential student wishes to meet, and career ambitions. In the same light, the types of sources that the members of different subgroups prefer to consult indicate that each subgroup has specific preferences and that these, too, are influenced by the individual’s socio-economic circumstances. Within the media sources category, the use of specific media vehicles is also specific to each subgroup. The study therefore shows that, for an institution to target the potential student target market as a whole within the Cape Metropole, it has to take cognisance of the different subgroups that exist, and tailor-make the content, presentation and media used according to the preferences of each. The study shows that treating the target market as a single homogeneous market with one message to ‘fit all sizes’ will not successfully reach the market or meet their individual needs. Finally, as in an IMC approach, these individual messages and media need to be integrated and co-ordinated in the institution’s overall marketing strategy. / Dissertation (MCom)--University of Pretoria, 2007. / Communication Management / MCom / Unrestricted