Magister Artium - MA / This dissertation explores the potential contributions of the mechanisms for early warning and intelligence sharing to regional security in Africa. The Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) and the Committee on Intelligence and Security Services of Africa (CISSA) are centrally concerned with the dissemination of information to enable decision-making on continental security. The main focus of the dissertation is on the manner in which the information generated by the CEWS and CISSA can contribute to regional security. In order to analyse the potential contribution of the CEWS and CISSA to regional security, a sound theoretical framework is proposed so as to explore how and why states choose to cooperate, as well as addressing multifaceted cooperation and integration at inter-state, government department and nonstate levels. Constructivist interpretations of international cooperation are utilised to explore the role of ideas, meanings and understandings in shaping behaviour. The focus is placed on the manner in which interaction as provided for by the CEWS and CISSA can shape understandings of reality and potentially impact on the definition of actors' interests. This is based on the assumption drawn from security community and epistemic community theory that, enabling the creation of shared meanings and shared knowledge there is the potential for both the CEWS and CISSA to have a positive influence on the choices that stakeholders take in favour of peaceful change. / South Africa

The central question addressed by this thesis is whether and to what extent ASEAN and SADC provide a regional response to security challenges from within and without the region respectively. In the examination of a regional response to security challenges in Southeast Asia and Southern Africa, this study investigates each regional organisation’s efforts and methods of how to approach and deal with regional security problems. In examining the processes and patterns of ASEAN and SADC regionalism in terms of the security dimension, the focus is on political security in its regional context. In doing so, the mechanisms of both ASEAN and SADC politico-security regionalisms are explored. This study also aims to compare SADC and ASEAN to find similarities and differences in terms of the way in which ‘politico-security regionalism’ as a regional project is used to respond to global challenges, as well as to internal needs. Moreover, this study seeks to explore what can be learnt from the experiences of both ASEAN and SADC with regard to regionalism and regionalisation in response to political security threats. This will, as a result, be conducive to understanding the character, nature and type of contemporary regionalism and regional security in the South, including Southeast Asia and Southern Africa. Furthermore, in discussing the question of whether and how ASEAN and SADC attempt to shape and modify or change the process of globalisation and regionalisation in politico-security terms, this study emphasises a multi-dimensionality of contemporary regionalism – so called ‘new regionalism’ – which would normally be based on constructivism. Therefore, this study argues that the theoretical problem relates to the insufficiency of neo-realist and neo-liberal institutionalist accounts that call for a much needed attempt to bring ASEAN and SADC into contemporary discussions about the mechanisms of politico-security regionalisms within the context of a (social) constructivism of international relations (IR) theory. / Thesis (DPhil (International Relations))--University of Pretoria, 2007. / Political Sciences / unrestricted

Late in 2004, King Abdullah of Jordan coined a controversial phrase that still dominates the heart of the geopolitics of the Middle East: The Shia Crescent. “If pro-Iran parties or politicians dominate the new Iraqi government, a new ‘crescent’ of dominant Shia movements or governments stretching from Iran into Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon could emerge to alter the traditional balance of power between the two main Islamic sects and pose new challenges to U.S. interests and allies. What the King of Jordan saw as a threat, Iran saw as the bedrock of its newfound regional power. However, what the King of Jordan and his Arab-Sunni aides downplayed was Iran’s ties with non-Shia groups, ranging from Sunni parties to secular and even non-Muslim groups. More importantly, they neglected Iran’s presence in the Middle East before the 1979 Islamic Revolution. In fact, the seeming omnipresence of Iran’s proxies in the Middle East is not a recent, nuanced phenomenon; rather, it dated back to the Shah’s foreign policy in making connections with both the Iraqi Kurds and Shia Lebanese. While much ink has been spilled on Iran’s foreign policy under the Islamic Republic, there has been a void in the analysis of Iran’s ties with Non-State Actors (NSAs) in the pre-1979 Revolution Era. v From this point of view, the present study is an attempt to set forth a new understanding of the emergence and fluctuation of Iran’s ties with NSAs at the heart of the Middle East during the Shah’s era. I will accomplish this by identifying the Iran-NSA relationships within an examination of the larger historical context of state-NSA relationships in the region. Here, the story of the evolution of Iran’s ties with NSAs can be narrated as the unfolding of constant interaction between states and non-state forces in the Middle East. Analyzed from this perspective, my research examines the actors, processes, and mechanisms that Iran has used to construct ties with NSAs from 1961 until 1979. “What actors and processes at what levels of analysis and through what mechanisms have constructed Iran’s ties with NSAs?” This is the central question that guides the analytical narrative in the present survey. Therefore, the dependent variable for this research is the evolution of Iran’s ties with NSAs, while the intervening variable is a set of actors and processes that have brought about such sub-state ties. In this framework, the proposed work will undertake these main tasks: A) Tracing the history of the ebbs and flows within Iran’s ties with non-state actors through a geopolitical lens. B) Explaining how Iran’s ties with non-state actors unfolded and understanding why Iran’s proxies evolved in the way they did. C) AssessingthebroadcontoursoftheevolutionarytrajectoryofIran’stieswithNSAs and its possible future path(s) for the geopolitics of the Middle East and its regional balance of power.

This research set out to develop a deeper theoretical component to the emerging discipline of hydropolitics by studying the political aspects of institutional developments in the water sector. The focal point was the four international river basins that are shared between South Africa and six of its neighbouring states. The study found that while there is a lot of evidence for the securitization of water resource management in South Africa’s international river basins, there are also a number of examples of regimes. The creation of these regimes was driven primarily by threat perceptions relating to state security, mostly during the period of apartheid and the Cold War. These regimes were mostly robust and served as a valuable instrument for the de-escalation of conflict, which was primarily of a high politics nature. Examples of both plus-sum and zero-sum outcomes have been isolated. Plus-sum outcomes arose when the non-hegemonic state chose to view the offer of a regime in terms of national self-interest with four examples of this condition. In all four cases the non-hegemonic state benefited from cooperation with South Africa. Zero-sum outcomes arose when the non-hegemonic state chose to view the offer of a regime in terms of ideology with two examples of this condition. In both cases the non-hegemonic state did not benefit and was sidelined to the extent that they became marginalized and worse off than before. In all cases the hegemonic state benefited from the regime. The research consequently showed that a hydropolitical complex is emerging in Southern Africa, clustered around two international river basins, the Orange and Limpopo, which have been defined as pivotal basins. Both of these basins have reached the limit of their readily available water resources and future development is not possible on any great scale. Four of the most economically developed states in Southern Africa (Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and South Africa) are riparians on these two international river basins, and have been defined as pivotal states. Other less developed countries that share any international river basin with a pivotal state have been defined as an impacted state, because their own development aspirations have been capped through this association. Any international river basin that has at least one of the pivotal states in it has been defined an impacted basin. Finally, this research showed that regimes create a plus-sum outcome in closed international river basins because they reduce the levels of uncertainty and institutionalize the conflict potential. As such regimes are a useful instrument with which to regulate inter-state behavior, leading over time to the development of institutions consisting of rules and procedures. / Thesis (DPhil (International Politics))--University of Pretoria, 2005. / Political Sciences / unrestricted

The thesis analyzes the development of the security discourse in Southeast Asia namely on the ground of the ASEAN organization and in its member states. The thesis main aim is to find out whether the region of the ASEAN can be considered as the Regional Security Complex. The theoretical basis of the thesis is drawn from the theoretical concept of the Copenhagen school, specifically on researchers such as, Barry Buzan, Ole Wæver and Jaap de Wilde, who formulated the theory. The theory applicability is studied through the securitization processes elaborated on the sectoral analysis. On the military, political, economic, environmental and societal sector the thesis strives to analyze the essential securitization and desecuritization processes, attempts to name the main securitization actors, referential objects and confront them with the theory. Based on the elaboration on the current issues connected with the securitization logic the thesis describes the security dynamic in the region. At the end of analysis, the thesis evaluates the current regional setting of the ASEAN as the Regional Security Complex and gives the recommendations for its next developments.

No / Nowhere in the world is the demand for peace more prominent and challenging than in Africa. From state collapse and anarchy in Somalia to protracted wars and rampant corruption in the Congo; from bloody civil wars and extreme poverty in Sierra Leone to humanitarian crisis and authoritarianism in Sudan, the continent is the focus of growing political and media attention. This book presents the first comprehensive overview of conflict and peace across the continent. Bringing together a range of leading academics from Africa and beyond, "Peace and Conflict in Africa" is an ideal introduction to key themes of conflict resolution, peacebuilding, security and development. The book's stress on the importance of indigenous Africa approaches to creating peace makes it an innovative and exciting intervention in the field.

Cette thèse se propose d’étudier un cadre général d’interprétation de l’évolution du comportement de la République islamique d’Iran dans sa région, comportement considéré comme la principale problématique internationale de cette dernière décennie. En d’autres termes, les éléments de focalisation de ce travail se situeront principalement au niveau de la région du Golfe, et plus précisément, au niveau de l’interaction existant entre l’Iran et son environnement immédiat. L’idée que sous-tend ce travail est qu’il existe une cohérence dans le cheminement politique et sécuritaire iranien qui se reflète suite à la problématique soulevée par l’intrusion d’un acteur global. Plus précisément, ce travail a pour objet la mise en lumière d’une corrélation forte entre, d’une part, les hypothèses offertes par l’analyse des dimensions sécuritaires, et d'autre part, l’évolution du positionnement iranien dans un système international à la structure singulière. / This thesis deals with the evolution of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s behavior in its region, this behavior being considered as the main international problem of the last decade. This research will focus on the Gulf Region and more precisely on the interaction existing between Iran and its immediate environment. The idea behind this work is that Iran’s political and safety evolution has been influenced by the issues arising from the intrusion of a global player. More precisely, this work intends to highlight a strong correlation between, on the one hand, theories coming from the analysis of safety aspects and, on the other hand, the evolution of Iran’s positioning within the new structure of the international system.

從歷史淵源而言，「東突厥斯坦」乙詞緣於19世紀沙俄試圖從地理名稱、宗教信仰與民族識別等深層的滲透方式，藉由「泛突厥主義」與「泛伊斯蘭主義」拉攏新疆信仰伊斯蘭教的少數民族，以東突的概念，將之納入已遭其併吞的中亞突厥斯坦地區，復以此話語的界定權，取得全世界對於俄國版地理分隔線的認同。復由於國共內戰時期，蘇聯鼓動成立「東突厥斯坦共和國」，毛澤東亦以「三區革命」稱許之，以期掀起遍地革命火種，給予現代新疆少數民族留下以語言及信仰為基礎的革命建國歷史記憶。 從中國的內政視野，政治穩定與否是東突問題載浮載沉的關鍵，清末與民國時期的內憂外患時期自不待言。中共建政之初，對少數民族採取相對溫和的社會主義改造政策，漸次形成了認同的政治文化，然而卻隨著左右傾路線發展遭到破壞；雖然1989年中共實施經濟改革後，新疆少數民族亦從中獲利，但幅度始終跟不上漢族的移入者，以致無論是民族關係、經濟關係乃至政治關係上均惡化為破碎的政治文化，即漢族始終自認是政策利多的給予者，而少數民族則自視為被剝奪者與受害者。1991年蘇聯解體之後，中亞五國獨立對新疆少數民族造成磁吸效應，成為東突議題再起的火種。然自江澤民上台之後，對於東突治理的基調仍採取軍事過硬的鎮壓手段，並未從根本解決少數民族的問題，以致民族融合更加困難，暴力衝突的數量與規模屢創新高。 從區域安全角度，新疆與其隔鄰的中亞自古以來就是伊斯蘭、儒家、斯拉夫與佛教等四大文明邊緣的交會破碎區，少數遊牧民族逐水草而居的生活型態更打破國家之間的界線，伊斯蘭宗教信仰與突厥方言的識別取代了國家認同。以致本地區所謂的認同兼具有脆弱性與包容性。因此，自古以來外在強權對於本地區並不刻意建立有形的實質統治，而是透過優勢文化或軟實力滲透，讓區域內的少數民族對強勢帝權國家產生有形與無形依賴，前者是物質與經濟力量，後者是文化與心理作用。兩相交替，造成被影響國家邊境少數民族出現認同危機。過去是沙俄與前蘇聯藉此覬覦中國的領土，現今則有美國、歐洲乃至日本加入競逐天然資源蘊藏豐富的中亞地區，以各種優厚的條件，取得天然資源開發特許權。 從治理成果評估，新疆少數民族、東突議題與中共政權之間不僅在中國大陸境內出現認同分離現象，並隨著全球資訊化的發展，使得國內問題惡化為國際議題。衝突雙方藉由印象管理、符號黏合等方式，在各自的舞台上展示政治訴求。雖然在以主權國家為主體的國際體系中，東突組織屈居下風；然而受到網際網穿透性、民族宗教關懷，或者，如中共政權所認定之「國際陰謀」作用，使得部分東突組織與成員雖然不足以影響大局，但仍透過相關議題在特定國際社會場域形成動靜觀瞻之國際影響。 / From the historical aspect, Russia mixed the concepts of geography, religion and nation to establish the title of “East-Turkistan” in 19th century, and then attracted the minorities of Xinjiang into her Center Asia provinces by the ideas of Pan-Islam and Pan-Turkism. By the power of discourse, Russia’s new map about the East-Turkistan got the recognitions in the world. In 1944, the eve of Chinese Civil War, Soviet Union supported the Xinjiang minorities to establish the “Republic of East-Turkistan”. Mao Zedong praised it “Three Regions Revolution” to combine the spirit of revolution in the China Mainland. All these give the modern Xinjiang minorities fresh founding memory till now. Tracing the development of Chinese internal affairs, there are significant relations between the issues of East-Turkistan and domestic political stable. It goes without saying the worse situation during the late Qing dynasty and the early Republic of China (ROC). In the beginning of People’s Republic of China (PRC) regime, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) taking the warm socialism reform policies, got the Xinjiang minorities’ identity and formed the unify political culture, which been broken by following political conflicts in a short time. In 1978, the CCP promoted the economic reform policies, the Xinjiang minorities got some profit from it, but the earnings could not compare with the Han immigrations. All of those led the ethnic, economic and political relations becoming a cracked political culture. In other words, the Han thought themselves as givers of the profit, but the Xinjiang minorities felt been exploited. The independent tide of the five former Central Asia Republics after dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 produced the magnetic effect to Xinjiang minorities and stimulated the revival of East-Turkistan issues. Since Jiang Zemin, the Secretary General of CCP still compressed the problem by military means in 1992; the ethnic integration in Xinjiang becomes more difficult. The number of violence accidents hits higher and higher level. According to the regional security, Xinjiang and Central Asia locate at the crossroad of four civilizations, including Islam, Confucius, Slavs and Buddhism. In addition to the living style of nomads breaking the boundaries in this area, the Islamic belief and Turkic dialect take place the national identity, which are full of the vulnerability and tolerance. The outside superpowers penetrate this area by excellent culture and soft power instead of creating functional institutions, causing the crisis of identity or loyalty. For example, the Russia and Soviet Union invaded the vast land of Xinjiang in the 19th; the US, Europe and Japan rapidly join the great competition of natural resources in Central Asia nowadays. Evaluation the policy of CCP toward East-Turkistan is not easy. This is not only the identity crisis in China, but also transfers into the international field. Both sides take the strategies of impression management and exegetical bonding to show their political appeals. Although the realistic international system is composed by the sovereignty states obstructed the East Turkistan organizations, which still take advantages of internet, ethnic and religious methods to attract some specific concerns. This study found that: First, the proper noun “East Turkistan” does not created by the Uyghur themselves, but by the Russia in the 19th. In addition, The Republic of East Turkistan (1944-1949) organized by many minorities of Xinjiang, not by Uyghur only. Therefore, the Uyghur can’t be referred to the East Turkistan totally. Second, the definition of East Turkistan problem is rebellion or terrorist attack is decided by the Chinese central government. The Republic of China thought it as the Soviet Union agitated the local minorities’ armed rebellion. The CCP took the same viewpoints before 1990s. While, the CCP highlights the terrorism about the East Turkistan’s issues that got few recognition from the US and UN after September 11 attack. Although the change let the CCP wins tiny interest in a short period, the foreign countries use the excuse of human rights and against radical anti-terrorism strategy to intervene the CCP domestic issues. Third, the exile Uyghur does not get the general agreement about resistance movement and the core attitude toward the CCP. Those are the obstacles for the exile Uyghur to form the unify action and power. Forth, the CCP always declares to the world that the Xinjiang Uyghur relates closely with the East Turkistan terrorism organizations. That enrages some Uyghur to take fierce actions against the CCP. Now the most important duty for the CCP is to find a balance between the removals of terrorism label from the Uyghur and increasing the budget for the anti-terrorism mission. Fifth, the appeals of Rebiya Kadeer and the overseas Uyghur groups which she leads do not want to establish an independent state. Instead, she struggles to ask a higher autonomy. The idea is familiar to the Soviet republics, but refused by the CCP.

Magistro darbo problema yra susijusi su situacija, kuomet nedidelė valstybių tarpusavio priklausomybė ir nenoras riboti savo suverenitetą lemia globalių aplinkosauginių režimų neefektyvumą. Tuo tarpu regioninis bendradarbiavimas, sąlygojamas valstybių tarpusavio priklausomybės, leidžia efektyviau spręsti kylančias problemas. Regionai, siejami iniciatyvų įveikti specifines ekologines grėsmes, gali būti ypatingai suinteresuoti bendradarbiauti ir kurti ekologinio saugumo kompleksus. Todėl bendradarbiavimas ekologinėje srityje gali skatinti tolesnę regiono integraciją. Tyrimo objektu darbe laikomas dėl ekologinių grėsmių vykstantis regioninis bendradarbiavimas bei institucionalizuotos jo formos. Darbe keliamas klausimas, kokiomis sąlygomis ekologinės grėsmės skatina regioninį bendradarbiavimą? Taip pat keliamas šalutinis klausimas, kokie faktoriai riboja ekologinio bendradarbiavimo procesus? Tiesioginio ryšio tarp ekologinių grėsmių ir regioninio bendradarbiavimo nėra užfiksuota, o tai leidžia teigti, jog ekologinės grėsmės gali skatinti regioninį bendradarbiavimą tik egzistuojant tam tikroms sąlygoms, kurių identifikavimas ir analizė yra pagrindinis darbo tikslas. Darbe keliama prielaida, kad ekologinės grėsmės skatina regioninį bendradarbiavimą, egzistuojant trims būtinoms sąlygoms: - ekologinės grėsmės regiono valstybių yra suvokiamos kaip gyvybinės; - bendradarbiavimas ekologinėje srityje sukuria potencialą regiono ekonominei plėtrai; - regionas patiria išorės jėgų įtaką... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Relatively weak interdependence of the states and unwillingness to limit one’s sovereignty determines inefficiency of global environmental regimes. This fact forms the main problem of the MA thesis. The MA thesis is based on the presumption that regional cooperation which is determined by the interdependence of the states allows to resolve current issues easier. Certain regions which have intentions to cope with common environmental threats may be especially interested in cooperation and establishment of environmental security complexes. Therefore, cooperation may encourage the further integration. The key question of the MA thesis is when and in what circumstances the environmental threats encourage regional integration? The additional question is what factors restrict the processes of regional cooperation on the basis of the environmental threats? The analytical parts encompass the analysis of cases of Nile and Mekong regions. The object of the research is the regional cooperation and its institutionalized forms, as a consequence of the environmental threats. The aim of the analytical parts of the thesis is to examine whether the environmental threats encourage the regional cooperation on three main conditions: - the environmental threats are regarded as existential issues by the states of the certain region; - cooperation in the environmental field creates an opportunity for the economic development of states; - the regions are influenced by the external actors, which... [to full text]

能源是攸關人類生存的一大課題，它提供熱能、照明和運輸，而且是經濟發展不可或缺的帶動因素。國家的經濟成長需仰賴充足可靠且價格合理的能源供應。對外政策重大議題尤其需要依賴安全可靠且價格合理的能源供應，像是民主、貿易、替代能源發展、消弭貧窮和環保等等相關發展支援計劃。 東北亞是具有高度經濟與政治價值的重要區域。在此區域內約有17億人口以及世界第二、第三大經濟體，不論在政治、經濟和文化上皆有莫大影響力。 俄罗斯是世界上碳酸氫化合物與鈾的主要出口國，也擁有名列前茅的核能發電廠運作技術。中國和日本不論在東北亞與世界都佔有重要地位，且高度依賴能源進口。而俄罗斯鄰近中國和日本，可以快速有效提供石油和天然氣等能源。故而俄罗斯與中日兩國在能源供應合作上顯然具有極高的發展潛力。 掌握能源供應的俄罗斯可以鞏固其東北亞的地位，進而成為該區域的超級強權。 研究目標在於解讀俄罗斯對中日兩國的能源關係以及對東北亞情勢的影響。筆者將採用地緣政治學中的「策略性操縱」理論和「區域安全複合體」的概念作為主要假設，分析俄罗斯與中日兩國能源關係的內容與後續走向，以及對區域情勢所造成的影響。 研究架構如下：第一章是本研究的背景、目標及方法；第二章詳細分析俄罗斯的石油、天然氣與核能燃料蘊藏量、該國的能源策略及其理論上的影響範圍；第三章的焦點為中國的能源需求、能源政策和外交，俄罗斯與中國能源供應合作的內容、發展與問題以及理論方面的評估；第四章探討日本的能源需求、能源政策和外交，俄罗斯與日本能源供應合作的內容、發展與問題以及理論方面的評估；第五章就俄罗斯對中國及對日本的能源關係進行比較分析，以ESPO的建設為例，探討其結果及影響；第六章則是回應研究目標、評估俄罗斯與中日兩國的能源關係，並且對俄罗斯在東北亞的能源政策提出建議。 / Energy is one of the most important factors for the survival of humanity. It provides the fuel of the economy, heat, light and mobility. The country’s economic growth depends on adequate, reliable and affordable supplies of energy. Key foreign policy objectives, including support for democracy, trade, sustainable economic development, poverty reduction and environmental protection rely on the provision of safe, reliable and affordable energy supplies. North East Asia is an important region in terms of its economic and political value. With a population of 1,7 billion people, and containing the world's second and third largest economies, it is a region of enormous political, economic and cultural significance. Russia, a major exporter of hydro carbonates and uranium, is one of the world’s leaders of nuclear plant operating technology. China and Japan are the main actors in NEA and highly depend on the import of energy resources. Moreover, Russia’s close proximity to China and Japan enables a fast and a reliably efficient supply of oil and gas. These attributes highlight and emphasize the excellent opportunities for energy cooperation between these countries. Russia’s strength in this field allows them to fortify their position in NEA as it aspires to become a regional super power. The goal of this research is to study Russian energy relations with China and Japan and how it affects the positions of the country in the region. The author would adopt the main assumptions of the Geopolitics, theory of “Strategic manipulation” and the concept of “Regional Security Complex” to analyze the content and consequences of Russian energy relations with China and Japan and its impact on the situation in the region. The framework of the research is illustrated as follows: chapter one gives the background, goals and methodology of the research; chapter two provides the detailed analysis of Russian oil, natural gas, nuclear power reserves, the country’s energy strategy and its theoretical implications; chapter three focuses on energy demand, energy diplomacy and strategy of China, the content, development, problems of Russo-Chinese energy cooperation and its theoretical evaluation; chapter four focuses on energy demand, energy diplomacy and strategy of Japan, the content, development, problems of Russo-Japanese energy cooperation and its theoretical evaluation; chapter five is devoted to the comparative study of Russian energy relations with China and Japan at the example of ESPO constructing, its results and implications; and chapter six concludes with responses to research goals, evaluation of energy relations between Russia, China and Japan and recommendations for Russian energy policy in North East Asia.