<p>Today's highly integrated supply chains are exposed to various types of risks which disrupt the normal flow of goods or services within a supply chain network. Since most of these individual risks are interconnected, a mitigation strategy to tackle one risk may result in the exacerbation of another.</p> <p>Risk dependencies have been modelled using two approaches in the financial insurance literature : (i) random variables, and (ii) copulas. In this dissertation these studies are reviewed and extended. Also, applications for these models for different supply chain network configurations are presented. Then, a Poisson process model for risk propagation is proposed. Unlike the existing models, the transition rate of the proposed model not only expresses the time dependency, but also captures other possible dependencies in the network. Finally, the thesis is summarized and general directions and suggestions for future research on risk dependency and propagation modelling are provided.</p> / Master of Science (MSc)

企業為有效提高生產效率、降低成本與找尋最佳解決方案，促成專業高效率、有彈性與低成本合作夥伴遍及全球各地的現象。而當前產業趨勢為專業化分工、企業全球化，此情況也使企業、顧客與供應商等合作夥伴形成關係極為複雜的全球化供應鏈網路，但伴隨而來是發生機率大幅提高之供應鏈風險等相關問題。2011年3月日本發生芮氏規模8.9地震，且併發如海嘯等災害造成日本企業減產停工、並出現供應鏈中斷的情況，使蘋果公司產品i-Devices、波音七八七客機、美國汽車廠商都受其影響。2011年7月泰國發生水災，除造成電腦產業硬碟短缺，亦造成相關電腦資訊產業鉅額損失。近年來關於供應鏈風險管理文獻研究也指出，全球化使供應鏈網路錯綜複雜，使供應鏈網路更容易受政治及經濟變化影響而出現混亂、崩潰，進而產生更大的風險。因此對企業而言供應鏈風險管理議題是非常重要的。有鑑於此，本研究將針對「如何有效減低供應鏈風險發生之衝擊」為主要議題進行研究。 本研究使用陳有慶(2013)相互影響關聯之供應鏈風險因子表，且從文獻蒐集相關風險因子之供應鏈風險管理策略，並運用系統動態模擬方法(System Dynamics; SD)建立以SCOR流程模式為整體框架基礎架構的供應鏈風險管理策略評估模擬模式。藉由此模擬模式可評估測試供應鏈風險管理策略對不同風險因子的影響，驗證各策略降低風險的有效性，並觀察不同策略對各風險因子的控制及降低對供應鏈衝擊的效果，最後針對各風險因子策略彙整並分析出對應之最佳風險管理策略。 / To reduce cost, increase productivity enterprises, and find the best solution. Enterprises cooperate with professional efficiency, flexible, and low-cost partners all over the world. Industry specialization, corporate globalization is the current trend of the times. The phenomenon also contributed to the enterprise, customers and suppliers, and other partners to form a highly complex relationship between global supply chain networks, it is accompanied by the occurrence of risk related issues. The earthquake happened on Japan in March 2011, it caused related subsequent disaster also caused Japanese companies cut downtime or the disruption of supply chain situation. In recent years, research on risk management of the supply chain literature also prove that the globalization cause the supply chain network complexity, and it have a greater risk happen because of political and economic environment changes. Therefore this research concentrates on a topic: how to effectively mitigate risk impacts in supply chain. About the topic, the System Dynamics (SD) method and the risk factor framework of supply chains by Chen&Lin (2013) will be used to construct a risk management strategy evaluation simulation model to evaluate the performance of risk management strategies. The risk management strategies will be examined by the proposed simulation model, and the proper strategy for each risk factor will be found. The risk assessment and risk management strategy evaluation simulation model proposed in this research could be as useful tools for managers to assess risks and to select proper risk management strategies in supply chains.

The modern supply chain is long, complex, interconnected and global, and plays a fundamental role in business competitiveness. These conditions, along with various supply chain management trends in recent years have increased risks in supply chains which threaten supply chain performance. Greater impact, especially on cost, from an increased threat of supply disruptions is one area of particular concern. Companies today are struggling to find effective means to manage this increased risk and avoid adverse financial impacts. An approach to managing supply disruption risk in supply chains based on the minimization of the total cost of ownership (TCO) of the supply chain is explored in this thesis. Insights are provided into an appropriate view of supply chain risk and a general four step risk management process to guide the design and evaluation of a new risk management tool based on such an approach. A prototype of the new total cost-based, modeling and simulation tool was created in partnership with ProModel Corporation and a government contractor that requested to remain anonymous. A preliminary assessment of the effectiveness of this tool in minimizing TCO and providing an interface useable by non-modelers is provided. This study also reviews and compares a sample set of current supply chain risk management methods and tools and compares them with the new tool for relevance in aiding users in managing supply disruption risk. Based on literature findings and preliminary feedback from pilot contextual demonstrations of the tool, the total cost approach to risk modeling appears promising, although the execution needs to be improved with further enhancements made to the prototype tool. In this preliminary study and evaluation, sufficient evidence is not available to determine that the new prototype tool is any more effective than other currently available risk management tools to provide necessary information to make supply chain risk management decisions that minimize TCO of a supply chain. Suggestions for further development of the tool, especially for improvement of the total cost approach, are provided as well as a preliminary evaluation procedure and survey instruments for a more robust evaluation of the new tool.

Supply chain disruptions are detrimental to the performance of companies due to the associated loss of profitability and reduced sustainability. In 2016, organizations lost at least $1.2 million in a single supply chain disruption. Guided by the contingency theory of fit, the purpose of this exploratory multiple case study was to explore the strategies agribusiness managers use to prevent and mitigate the effects of disruptions in the agro-food supply chains. A total of 5 purposefully-selected agribusiness managers from Harare, Zimbabwe participated in semistructured interviews. Participants were senior agribusiness managers who implemented successful strategies for preventing and mitigating the effects of disruptions in agro-food supply chains. Three themes emerged from the thematic analysis of interview data and review of organizational documents: collaboration among supply chain partners, business continuity management, and the use of a multiple supplier base. Agribusiness managers must first understand the sources of disruption risk, assess the impact of the risk, and then select an appropriate strategy based on the level of uncertainty and risk. By managing the risks effectively, managers can improve the performance and competitiveness of their businesses. The implications for positive social change may include a reduction in supply chain costs, provision of better services and products to consumers, and lower prices of agro-food products to consumers which could lead to an improvement in the lives of consumers.

Submitted by Claudia Alessandra Barbuio (claudiaalessandra.barbuio@alumni.esade.edu) on 2018-01-19T21:32:17Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Thesis VFINAL for Upload post-discussion + Ficha.pdf: 3631268 bytes, checksum: 41c463a1f715d81b0c5c398c7ecc4c40 (MD5) / Rejected by Josineide da Silva Santos Locatelli (josineide.locatelli@fgv.br), reason: Dear Claudia, It’s necessary to correct some details in your work, please, see below: The title is different of the informed initially, we have: SUPPLY CHAIN RISK MANAGEMENT IN BRAZIL: INDUSTRY ANALYSIS: REVERSE LOGISTICS' PLAYERS, if the change was authorized by your advisor, she needs to send this information for us; Page 3: It is missing the “Ficha Catalográfica” number, given by Library, please withdraw the last page. Page 4: Put a line below each professor members, according the model sendt; Pages 5 and 6: The texts (abstract and resumo) cannot be in Capital letters; After corrections, please, post again. on 2018-01-23T10:17:05Z (GMT) / Submitted by Claudia Alessandra Barbuio (claudiaalessandra.barbuio@alumni.esade.edu) on 2018-01-25T21:32:30Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Thesis VFINAL for Upload post-discussion + Ficha.pdf: 3589584 bytes, checksum: cd6ee048257547f7d3a9010c863aefb6 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Josineide da Silva Santos Locatelli (josineide.locatelli@fgv.br) on 2018-01-29T11:17:05Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Thesis VFINAL for Upload post-discussion + Ficha.pdf: 3589584 bytes, checksum: cd6ee048257547f7d3a9010c863aefb6 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-01-29T11:32:07Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Thesis VFINAL for Upload post-discussion + Ficha.pdf: 3589584 bytes, checksum: cd6ee048257547f7d3a9010c863aefb6 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-01 / The research objective of this dissertation is to identify the main risks and challenges that affect the recycling industry in Brazil and the practices adopted by this industry’s players to face them. The recycling industry is an expanding sector that still presents many obstacles. an exploratory research based on one case study, is developed with the aim of identifying the risks specifically related to recycling in Brazil and the strategies that have been implemented by recycling players in Brazil. The case selected for this study is TriCiclos, a company based in Brazil that is inserted in the recycling supply chain of the city of São Paulo. The data collected on this company through interviews and observations are analyzed in the light of the literature review on the topic to obtain results in terms of strategy definition for facing risks. The contribution of this work to management and organizations will be a thorough review and presentation of possible improvements, based on interviews results, of those strategies used to stem risks away and build an effective recycling supply chain considering the barriers peculiar to the recycling industry. The final purpose is to create a basis for a future discussion on the best strategy for realizing an efficient integration of the different players in the recycling supply chain. / O objetivo desta pesquisa é identificar os principais riscos e desafios que afetam a indústria de reciclagem no Brasil e as práticas adotadas pelos atores dessa indústria para enfrentá-los. A indústria de reciclagem é um setor em expansão que ainda tem muitos obstáculos. Uma investigação exploratória baseada em um estudo de caso, é desenvolvida com o objetivo de identificar os riscos especificamente relacionados com a reciclagem no Brasil e as estratégias que foram aplicadas por os atores desta indústria no Brasil. O caso selecionado para este estudo é TriCiclos, uma companhia baseada no Brasil que é incluída na cadeia de fornecimento de reciclagem da cidade de são Paulo. Os dados coletados sobre esta companhia através de entrevistas e observações são analisados à luz da revisão da literatura sobre o tópico para obter resultados em termos de definição de estratégia para enfrentar os riscos. A contribuição deste trabalho à gestão e organizações será uma realização e apresentação de possíveis melhorias, resultados de entrevistas, das estratégias utilizadas para enfrentar os riscos e construir uma cadeia de fornecimento de reciclagem eficaz considerando as barreiras peculiares à indústria de reciclagem. O objetivo final é criar a base de uma discussão futura sobre a melhor estratégia para realizar uma integração eficiente dos diferentes atores na cadeia de fornecimento de reciclagem.

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No. of bitstreams: 1 Amanda Veit Braune Alvarez.pdf: 3256884 bytes, checksum: 8bc5e93bc57f146f1519c7695a8d09ca (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-02-28 / Esse estudo tem como objetivo analisar como os membros da cadeia de suprimentos de cacau no Brasil percebem a influência da variação climática nos riscos existentes nesta cadeia. Essa cadeia foi escolhida devido a sua grande importância na economia brasileira. Para que essa análise fosse possível, foram identificados os principais riscos desta cadeia, bem como eventos climáticos recentes, suas possíveis influências e as ações mitigadoras adotadas pelos membros da cadeia. Foram feitas 17 entrevistas semiestruturadas com respondentes de todos os elos da cadeia: produtores, atravessadores, moageiras e indústrias de chocolates. Alguns dos resultados da pesquisa apontam que essa cadeia é afetada por riscos relacionados à carência de informação entre os elos, baixa manutenção dos equipamentos e pouca tecnologia na produção, baixa precisão de previsão de safra e, inclusive, problemas na qualidade e produtividade na produção. Mudanças de temperaturas, ventos e umidade também foram considerados como riscos nesta cadeia. Essas alterações climáticas aumentam a incidência dos outros riscos, por exemplo: pragas na produção, necessidade de importação, riscos financeiros e dificuldade logística. A seca de 2016 afetou diretamente a exposição e vulnerabilidade dessa cadeia aos riscos, tendo como consequências diretas a redução da produtividade e da qualidade das amêndoas. Além disso, este evento causou rupturas na cadeia, ocasionando a saída de alguns produtores e indústrias do mercado. Ações mitigadoras têm sido implementadas por associações que auxiliam produtores de cacau, indústrias moageiras e de chocolates e, por grandes produtores. Grande parte dessas ações são referentes a como os produtores podem lidar com as influências das variações climáticas em suas produções. Um dos objetivos dessas ações é que as fazendas possam aumentar a produtividade e qualidade de suas amêndoas, com inclusão de tecnologias para o manejo do cacau e de outras culturas na produção. Como consequência, moageiras e industrias de chocolate também poderão reduzir seus riscos, minimizando a necessidade de importar amêndoas e aumentando a qualidade de seus produtos. / The aim of this study is to analyze how members of the Brazilian cocoa supply chain perceive the influence of climate variations on other supply chain risks. This chain was chosen due to its importance in the Brazilian economy. Conducting this analysis entailed identifying not only the main risks to the Brazilian cocoa supply chain but also recent climatic events and their likely influence; the mitigating strategies adopted by supply chain members were also analyzed. A total of 17 semi-structured interviews were conducted with respondents belonging to all nodes of the chain: producers, middlemen, and the grinding and chocolate industries. Some of the research results indicate that the Brazilian cocoa supply chain is affected by risks related to a lack of information among its members, low equipment maintenance and poor production technology, low precision of crop forecasting, quality problems, and low productivity at production. Temperature variations, winds and humidity were also considered as chain risks. Climate variations increase the incidence of other risks, such as pests in production, import necessity, financial risks and logistical bottlenecks. The 2016 drought directly affected the exposure and vulnerability of this chain to risks, resulting in reduced productivity and quality of cocoa beans. In addition, the drought caused supply chain disruptions, which caused some producers and industries to leave the market. Mitigating actions have been implemented by associations that provide help to cocoa producers, grinding and chocolate factories, and large scale producers. Many of these actions are related to how producers can deal with the influence of climate variations on their crops. One of the goals of these actions targets the fact that farms can increase their cocoa bean productivity and quality by learning about additional technologies for handling cocoa and about new crops that could be incorporated into production. By adopting these strategies, the grinding and chocolate industries could also reduce their risks, minimizing the need to import cocoa beans while increasing the quality of their products.

Global supply chains (GSCs) are formed with the primary objective of cost minimization. Apart from cost reductions, GSCs also have other benefits like opening up new markets, reduction in the price of the product sold, and increasing production capacity. The benefits of GSCs are significant only when the environment it works in is stable. But in real life, almost all the systems are stochastic. While companies try to globalize their supply chains (SC), it is important to understand and evaluate the risks associated with global expansion. Several risk events arise in global supply chains and efficient management of these probable risk events plays a crucial role. Supply chain risk management (SCRM) is the implementation of strategies to manage both everyday and exceptional risks along the SCs based on continuous risk assessment to reduce vulnerability and ensure continuity. But there is a need to differentiate risk management of domestic and global supply chains due to additional risk elements involved in the functioning of GSCs. COVID-19 pandemic is one such risk event that has disrupted the GSCs of many companies around the world. Hence, the purpose of this study is to examine whether the framework of risk management in global supply chains needs reviewing after the manifestation of the COVID-19 pandemic. To fulfill the purpose, the study is divided into 2 sections. A literature review is done in supply chain management, supply chain risk management using the keywords mentioned below. Interviews were conducted with companies having GSCs. The interviews help in primary data collection for understanding the impact of COVID-19 on GSCs. Questions regarding company background, strategy for RM, the impact of COVID-19 on the GSC, and previous catastrophic impacts &amp; future plans were asked. The collected data is processed and analyzed to arrive at findings. These findings are compared with theory to conclude by answering the research questions.  The findings prove that the existing risk management (RM) framework is sufficient to handle risk events such as pandemics. The benefits of implementing risk monitoring are visible with the comparison of the impact of RM strategies prior to and during the pandemic. Disruptive events such as COVID-19 cannot be completely avoided but can be mitigated. Several risk types occur due to catastrophic events as risk types are interconnected. Hence, all risk types must be evaluated for the RM plan. The impact is also dependent on local restrictions. Hence, it should also be considered in RM plans. Coordination mechanisms and robust strategies have shown that resiliency and flexibility improve and have reduced the impact of COVID-19 both proactively and reactively. So, it shows that the existing RM framework has the capability of mitigating the impacts of future pandemics and does not require updating.

Supply chain resilience has become an important topic within supply chain management, as increasingly complex supply chains set out for increased risk in these networks. Supply chain resilience is a risk management approach that includes the ability to mitigate disruptions through specific capabilities. The previous disruptive events of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Suez Canal blockage-21 have highlighted the vulnerabilities of global trade and the need for more resilient supply chains. The purpose of this thesis was to analyse supply chain resilience and the need for dynamic and operational capabilities in the global maritime transport sector to mitigate impacts from slow-onset and sudden-onset disruptions. In specific, the vulnerabilities highlighted through the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Suez Canal blockage-21 over time. This study was conducted as a multiple case study investigating the maritime transport sector’s resilience during COVID-19 and the Suez Canal blockage-21. The data was triangulated through semi-structured interviews, industry podcasts, and business reports and further analysed using a grounded analysis approach. The study showed that the continuous disruptions on supply chains caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Suez Canal blockage-21 generated economic consequences, congestions, and capacity constraints that the maritime transport sector could not fully mitigate. The study also provides evidence that severe impacts on supply chains were not necessarily caused by a lack of resilience, but rather the persistency of disruptions did not diminish over time. Even though the maritime transportation sector is considered flexible and agile in adapting to the new market situation, increased collaboration, integration, innovation, and digitalization were found necessary to improve the resilience of the maritime transport sector to become even better prepared for future disruptions.

Worldwide globalization has made supply chains more vulnerable to risk factors, increasing the associated costs of outsourcing goods. Outsourcing is highly beneficial for any company that values building upon its core competencies, but the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic and other crises have exposed significant vulnerabilities within supply chains. These disruptions forced a shift in the production of goods from outsourcing to domestic methods. This paper considers a multi-echelon supply chain model with global and domestic raw material suppliers, manufacturing plants, warehouses, and markets. All levels within the supply chain network are evaluated from a holistic perspective, calculating a total cost for all levels with embedded risk. We formulate the problem as a mixed-integer linear model programmed in Excel Solver linear to solve smaller optimization problems. Then, we create a Tabu Search algorithm that solves problems of any size. Excel Solver considers three small-scale supply chain networks of varying sizes, one of which maximizes the decision variables the software can handle. In comparison, the Tabu Search program, programmed in Python, solves an additional ten larger-scaled supply chain networks. Tabu Search’s capabilities illustrate its scalability and replicability. A quadratic multi-regression analysis interprets the input parameters (iterations, neighbors, and tabu list size) associated with total supply chain cost and run time. The analysis shows iterations and neighbors to minimize total supply chain cost, while the interaction between iterations x neighbors increases the run time exponentially. Therefore, increasing the number of iterations and neighbors will increase run time but provide a more optimal result for total supply chain cost. Tabu Search’s input parameters should be set high in almost every practical case to achieve the most optimal result. This work is the first to incorporate risk and outsourcing into a multi-echelon supply chain, solved using an exact (Excel Solver) and metaheuristic (Tabu Search) solution methodology. From a practical case, managers can visualize supply chain networks of any size and variation to estimate the total supply chain cost in a relatively short time. Supply chain managers can identify suppliers and pick specific suppliers based on cost or risk. Lastly, they can adjust for risk according to external or internal risk factors. Future research directions include expanding or simplifying the supply chain network design, considering multiple parts, and considering scrap or defective products. In addition, one could incorporate a multi-product dynamic planning horizon supply chain. Overall, considering a hybrid method combining Tabu Search with genetic algorithms, particle swarm optimization, simulated annealing, CPLEX, GUROBI, or LINGO, could provide better results in a faster computational time.

In recent years, the frequency of disruptive events in supply chains has increased. This is partly due to the fact that supply chains are more globalized and more complex, with deeper tiering among suppliers. This makes the supply chain more vulnerable to risks. Supply chain risks that come with the dependencies of global suppliers have been evident due to unexpected global events such as the Covid-19 pandemic, the obstruction in the Suez Canal, and the Russia-Ukraine war. To mitigate supply chain risks, a company needs to have a resilient supply chain. Volvo Construction Equipment, a world-leading manufacturer of premium construction equipment, has experienced some particularly challenging years due to global occurrences with material shortages, capacity constraints, and supply routes disruption. This has built up stress in the organization, both among processes and employees. To be able to plan for the coming years of high uncertainty, Volvo CE wants to investigate how they can anticipate and mitigate various risks and resist market fluctuations to create a more resilient supply chain. Therefore the purpose of the research was formulated as: The purpose of the research is to suggest how Volvo Construction Equipment AB can mitigate supply chain risks to secure the future supply chain in a volatile market. To facilitate the fulfillment of the research’s purpose, three research questions were developed concerning risk identification, assessing resilience capabilities, and assessing risk mitigation strategies. The first research question, RQ1, identified Volvo CE’s supply chain risks and the vulnerability of the risks. The supply chain risks were identified through focused group discussions with Volvo CE employees and the most vulnerable risks were determined through a survey with responses from the participants in the group discussions. Three risks were considered the most vulnerable in Volvo CE’s supply chain; lack of raw material and component shortage, lack of labor and competence in production at supplier, and shutdown of supplier factory due to unexpected events. The second research question, RQ2, answered which resilience capabilities Volvo CE possesses today and which should be improved. The resilience capabilities were assessed qualitatively through semi-structured interviews. The interview answers were then interpreted into what SCRES elements Volvo CE possess. It was concluded that all resilience capabilities can be improved but two out of five capabilities, ability to anticipate and ability to recover, were considered to have the most improvement potential as they contain a large proportion of SCRES elements that are not fully possessed today. Through semi-structured interviews and a cross-question analysis with RQ1 and RQ2, the third research question, RQ3, regarding the assessment of risk mitigation strategies could be answered. Based on the result of all research questions, five risk mitigation strategies were suggested for Volvo CE. These aimed to improve Volvo CE’s resilience capabilities with the most improvement potential to be able to mitigate the most vulnerable supply chain risks. The suggested risk mitigation strategies were supply chain understanding, SCRM culture, supplier relationship, backup supplier, and scenario planning. By working with these strategies, Volvo CE could significantly increase its resilience and thus create an organization better able to mitigate supply chain risks to secure the future supply in a volatile market.