Submitted by Fabio Tirolli de Sousa (fabio.tirolli@gmail.com) on 2016-09-02T18:26:37Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Estratégia de arbitragem estatística da variância implícita versus realizada por meio da replicação dinâmica do swap de variância no mercado de ações brasileiro.pdf: 1514163 bytes, checksum: cc43a0b3c95a6cd7176653b05d122953 (MD5) / Rejected by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br), reason: Fabio, boa tarde Por gentileza, nas páginas que constam seu nome, deve estar completo. Referente ao título, houve solicitação de alteração? Pois em ata e no protocolo o título é: SWAPS DE VARIÂNCIA NO MERCADO BRASILEIRO DE AÇÕES: VIABILIDADE DE TRADING Se não houve tal solicitação, deverá retornar o trabalho para o título inicial. Em seguida realizar uma nova submissão. Grata, Renata. on 2016-09-02T18:34:16Z (GMT) / Submitted by Fabio Tirolli de Sousa (fabio.tirolli@gmail.com) on 2016-09-02T19:20:50Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Estratégia de arbitragem estatística da variância implícita versus realizada por meio da replicação dinâmica do swap de variância no mercado de ações brasileiro.pdf: 1514608 bytes, checksum: 0eb56c70fbb454f0f8fa254456f6431e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2016-09-05T17:19:44Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Estratégia de arbitragem estatística da variância implícita versus realizada por meio da replicação dinâmica do swap de variância no mercado de ações brasileiro.pdf: 1514608 bytes, checksum: 0eb56c70fbb454f0f8fa254456f6431e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-09-05T17:25:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Estratégia de arbitragem estatística da variância implícita versus realizada por meio da replicação dinâmica do swap de variância no mercado de ações brasileiro.pdf: 1514608 bytes, checksum: 0eb56c70fbb454f0f8fa254456f6431e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-08-10 / Nos últimos anos, o uso da volatilidade como uma classe de ativo tem ganhado relevância para investidores e gestores de portfólios, e a maneira mais eficaz de se obter proteção ou exposição pura a esse instrumento é através dos derivativos de volatilidade. No entanto, no Brasil, ainda não temos contratos específicos para esses derivativos, sendo uma das principais razões para isto a baixa liquidez no mercado de opções, dado que as opções são os ativos essenciais para se estabelecer um portfólio replicante. O objetivo deste trabalho é apresentar um modelo para encontrar oportunidades de arbitragem estatística entre a variância implícita e a variância realizada das ações preferencias (PN) da Petrobras (PETR4). Assim que uma oportunidade é identificada durante o período de backtesting, para implementar a operação, compramos ou vendemos um contrato logarítmico (variância implícita) sob o ativo-objeto e utilizamos uma estratégia de replicação dinâmica deste contrato log para capturar a variância realizada do ativo-objeto. Veremos que essa dinâmica replica o payoff de um swap de variância. Os resultados obtidos durante o período de backtesting, considerando os custos de transação, demonstram que é possível gerar retornos atrativos. / In recent years, the use of volatility as an asset class has gained relevance for investors and portfolio managers, and the most effective way to get protection or pure exposure to this asset is through the volatility derivatives. However, in Brazil, we still have no specific contracts for these derivatives, and one of the main reasons for that is the low liquidity in the options market, since the options are critical assets to establish a replicating portfolio. The main purpose of this paper is to present a model to find out statistical arbitrage opportunities between the implied variance and the realized variance on the Petrobras preferred shares (PETR4). As soon as an opportunity is identified during the backtesting period, to implement the deal, we buy or sell a logarithmic contract (implied variance) of the underlying asset and then we use a dynamic replication strategy of this log contract to capture the underlying asset realized variance. We will see that this dynamics replicates the payoff of a variance swap. The results obtained during the backtesting period, considering the transaction costs, show that it is possible to generate attractive returns.

Submitted by Renata Junqueira (repajunqueira@hotmail.com) on 2016-09-12T19:57:23Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Renata de Andrade Junqueira Ribeiro.pdf: 1064886 bytes, checksum: baad34290f965fc38c8c027553d693be (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2016-09-21T14:11:27Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Renata de Andrade Junqueira Ribeiro.pdf: 1064886 bytes, checksum: baad34290f965fc38c8c027553d693be (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2016-09-23T17:12:07Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Renata de Andrade Junqueira Ribeiro.pdf: 1064886 bytes, checksum: baad34290f965fc38c8c027553d693be (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-09-23T17:12:24Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Renata de Andrade Junqueira Ribeiro.pdf: 1064886 bytes, checksum: baad34290f965fc38c8c027553d693be (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-08-29 / This paper uses an econometric model and identifies the relation between the perception of mining company Vale S.A.’s credit risk, measured by Credit Default Swap (CDS), and earnings surprises, measured by the difference between reported earnings per share (EPS) and EPS expected by market analysts. Conclusion is that a surprise in earning announcement significantly impacts Vale’s CDS and negative surprises tend to have higher influence than positive ones. Results suggest caution upon announcing future goals, since maintaining market expectations at reasonable levels could prevent sudden increases in funding costs. / Neste trabalho, é utilizado um modelo econométrico reduzido a fim de identificar a relação entre a percepção de risco de crédito da empresa mineradora Vale S.A., medida pelo Credit Default Swap (CDS), e a surpresa na divulgação de resultado, medida pela diferença entre o lucro por ação divulgado e o esperado pelos analistas de mercado. Conclui-se que uma surpresa no anúncio do resultado influencia significativamente o CDS da Vale e as surpresas negativas têm influência maior que as positivas. Os resultados sugerem cautela no anúncio de metas futuras, uma vez que a manutenção das expectativas de mercado em patamares moderados ajuda a evitar aumentos súbitos no custo de captação.

Submitted by Rodolfo Nunes Luterman (rluterman@gmail.com) on 2013-03-04T23:00:25Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Rodolfo Luterman - MPFE - Final.PDF: 1375397 bytes, checksum: 34f856bb109f53df096fcee82bee8a89 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2013-03-05T13:20:00Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Rodolfo Luterman - MPFE - Final.PDF: 1375397 bytes, checksum: 34f856bb109f53df096fcee82bee8a89 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-03-05T13:27:59Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Rodolfo Luterman - MPFE - Final.PDF: 1375397 bytes, checksum: 34f856bb109f53df096fcee82bee8a89 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-02-04 / Volatility risk plays an important role in the management of portfolios of derivative assets as well as portfolios of basic assets. This risk is currently managed in financial markets abroad with the use of several instruments, including volatility derivatives. However, a volatility derivatives market in Brazil is still a gap to be fulfilled in the future, maybe due to the lower liquidity of options or even the lack of all the required assets for the replicating portfolio. The objective of this paper is to introduce a straightforward model for pricing volatility swaps on BRL, encouraging further dialog between the academic and practitioner communities on this theme that would lead to the development of such market drawing on the best of both worlds. In order to value this instrument, the design and valuation of it is presented in details as the basic ingredients of a successful financial product. The numerical results show that the proposed model can be considered as a powerful instrument to hedge volatility risk. An additional benefit of this work is that it will provide the risks and benefits from using such instrument with BRL. / A volatilidade possui um papel central na gestão de risco tanto de portfólios de derivativos como de portfólios de ativos não alavancados. Este risco é gerenciado nos mercados financeiros através de diversos instrumentos, incluindo o uso de derivativos de volatilidade. No entanto, um mercado de derivativos de volatilidade no Brasil ainda é uma lacuna a ser preenchida, talvez pela baixa liquidez em determinadas opções ou mesmo pela falta de todos os ativos necessários para se estabelecer o portfólio replicante para os mesmos. O objetivo deste trabalho é apresentar um modelo simples de se apreçar swaps de volatilidade sob o BRL, estimulando um diálogo entre a comunidade acadêmica e os praticantes do mercado que permita o desenvolvimento de derivativos de volatilidade ao considerar o melhor de cada grupo. Para se apreçar este instrumento, a modelagem e os ativos utilizados são apresentados em detalhes como sendo os ingredientes básicos de um produto financeiro de sucesso. Os resultados numéricos demonstram que o modelo proposto pode ser considerado um poderoso instrumento para se realizar o hedge do risco de volatilidade. Um benefício adicional deste trabalho é apresentar os riscos e benefícios de se utilizar este instrumento com o BRL.

Memoria (magister en derecho tributario) / No autorizada por el autor para ser publicada a texto completo / Los instrumentos derivados adoptan su denominación a causa de que su precio deriva o depende del precio del activo que los subyace. Dentro de las categorías de instrumentos derivados más utilizados se puede mencionar a los futuros y los forwards, contratos en los que las partes se comprometen a comprar y vender un activo determinado en una fecha futura a un precio que se fija en la negociación; los swaps, contratos que básicamente consisten en un intercambio de flujos monetarios o de valores en el tiempo; y las opciones, contratos que otorgan a una de las partes el derecho a comprar o a vender en el futuro a un determinado precio a cambio del pago de un precio o prima. Vemos así que el denominador común de estos instrumentos es el futuro. En este sentido se contraponen a las operaciones que se desarrollan en el mercado spot o efectivo, constituido por los mercados en tiempo presente

International companies perform business transactions in different countries all over the world and must be able to manage their financial assets in various currencies. Significant foreign exchange alteration can markedly harm market value of any company. The companies use so called 'hedging' to avoid such situations. The aim of this master thesis is to analyze specifics of currency operations based on a case study in the international company and its transaction exposure. The thesis discovers that the selected company uses only two types of 'hedging'.

The purpose of this research is to highlight if contemporary practices for using interest rate derivatives in large non-financial Swedish corporations are consistent with theoretical incentives for using such derivative instruments. Most theoretical incentives were developed before the financial crisis of 2007-08. The introduction of new regulations, accounting practices and pricing methods has changed the prices of derivatives and the administrative burden related to hedging. Traditional academic literature commonly gives eight incentives for why corporations use interest rate derivatives (described further in the thesis). Following surveys and interviews with 13 relevant corporate professionals, the study finds that three of the theoretical incentives strongly motivate corporate managers’ use of interest rate derivatives. Four other theoretical incentives are found to partially explain motives for corporate managers’ hedging practices, whilst one of the theoretical incentives is found to be an irrelevant motive for corporate managers in practice.   In addition to the tested incentives, the study finds that Swedish corporations which occasionally raise capital in non-functional currencies actively use cross-currency swaps to convert outstanding non-functional debt currency to the company’s functional currency. The practice is commonly recognised amongst industry professionals but not widely cited in academia.   Compared to 10-15 years ago, treasury functions in Swedish corporations are found to require more knowledge in accounting and administration and less market savvy. During this period, the number of dealers in Swedish corporate treasury departments has been reduced significantly, as corporations have effectively outsourced part of their market operations to banks. / Denna uppsats undersöker om verkliga motiv och praxis för användning av räntederivat i svenska storföretag är förenliga med teoretiska incitament för räntederivatanvändning som ofta förekommer i akademisk litteratur. De flesta teoretiska förklaringsmodeller för företags användning av räntederivat utvecklades och beskrevs innan den globala finanskrisen 2007-08. Efter krisen har värderingen av räntederivat samt det administrativa arbetet kring instrumenten förändrats till följd av implementering av nya finansiella regler, bokföringsregler och prissättningsmetoder. Akademisk litteratur beskriver generellt åtta teoretiska incitament om varför företag använder räntederivat (vilka finns sammanfattade i detta arbete). För att verifiera teoretiska grunder och medvetenhet kring dessa teorier genomfördes en enkätundersökning samt djupintervjuer med totalt 13 beslutsfattare inom räntederivat i svenska storföretag. Studiens resultat ger starkt stöd till att tre av de teoretiska incitamenten i hög grad överensstämmer med verkliga motiv för användning av räntederivat, samt att fyra incitament delvis kunde förklara verkliga motiv, medan stöd saknades för ett teoretiskt incitament. Utöver de åtta testade incitamenten visar studiens resultat att det finns ett ytterligare motiv för användning av räntederivat: räntevalutaswappar används av flera svenska storföretag som emitterar obligationer i utländsk valuta för att konvertera pengar till företagets funktionella valuta. Förfarandet är känt inom industrin men understuderat i akademisk litteratur. Studien visar att kunskap inom bokföring och administration relaterat till finansiella derivat har blivit allt viktigare för svenska storföretags internbanker, medan vikten av att ha en aktiv marknadssyn minskat, jämfört mot 10-15 år sedan. Över denna tidsperiod har antalet handlare i storföretagens internbanker minskat kraftigt, då flera av funktionerna i praktiken har outsourcats till banker.

In this thesis, the pricing of counterparty credit risk on an OTC plain vanilla interest rate swap is investigated. Counterparty credit risk can be defined as the risk that a counterparty in a financial contract might not be able or willing to fulfil their obligations. This risk has to be taken into account in the valuation of an OTC derivative. The market price of the counterparty credit risk is known as the Credit Value Adjustment (CVA). In a bilateral contract, such as a swap, the party’s own creditworthiness also has to be taken into account, leading to another adjustment known as the Debit Value Adjustment (DVA). Since 2013, the international accounting standards (IFRS) states that these adjustments have to be done in order to reflect the fair value of an OTC derivative. A short background and the derivation of CVA and DVA is presented, including related topics like various risk mitigation techniques, hedging of CVA, regulations etc.. Four different pricing frameworks are compared, two more sophisticated frameworks and two approximative approaches. The most complex framework includes an interest rate model in form of the LIBOR Market Model and a credit model in form of the Cox-Ingersoll- Ross model. In this framework, the impact of dependencies between credit and market risk factors (leading to wrong-way/right-way risk) and the dependence between the default time of different parties are investigated. / I den här uppsatsen har prissättning av motpartsrisk för en OTC ränteswap undersökts. Motpartsrisk kan definieras som risken att en motpart i ett finansiellt kontrakt inte har möjlighet eller viljan att fullfölja sin del av kontraktet. Motpartsrisken måste tas med I värderingen av ett OTC-derivat. Marknadspriset på motpartrisken är känt som Credit Value Adjustment (CVA). I ett bilateralt kontrakt, t.ex. som en swap, måste även den egna kreditvärdighet tas med i värderingen, vilket leder till en justering som är känd som Debit Value Adjustment (DVA). Sedan 2013 skall, enligt den internationella redovisningsstandarden (IFRS), dessa prisjusteringar göras vid redovisningen av värdet för ett OTC derivat. En kort bakgrund samt härledningen av CVA och DVA ar presenterade tillsammans med relaterade ämnen. Fyra olika metoder för att beräkna CVA har jämförts, två mer sofistikerade metoder och två approximativa metoder. I den mest avancerade metoden används en räntemodell i form av LIBOR Market Model samt en kreditmodell i form av en Cox-Ingersoll-Ross modell. I den här metoden undersöks även påverkan av CVA då det existerar beroenden mellan marknads

This dissertation aims to study the behavior of intermediaries under market imperfections and the consequences of that for the financial market's functioning. To do so, I focus on two classes of market frictions: funding constraints and information asymmetry. Chapter 1 studies how the dealers' capital constraints affect the market liquidity in the presence of imperfect competition and how recent regulations have shifted the competitive landscape of interest rate swaps. On the subject of informational frictions, Chapters 2 and 3 study empirically and theoretically the pace at which prices incorporate private information under the limited learning capacity of the informed traders. Understanding the microstructure of the swap markets is of interest to both policymakers and academics, especially for it helps in the efficient implementation of post-crisis regulations, namely the Dodd-Frank Act. An understudied dimension of the swap market microstructure is the determinants of the cost of the market-making activity. Using a proprietary regulatory dataset collected by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on both the interest rate swap transactions and the collateral requirements at the London Clearinghouse (LCH), in Chapter 1, I study the key balance sheet constraints that affect the ability of the bank-affiliated dealers to provide intermediation service to the end-users. Most of the interest rate swaps are now mandated to be centrally cleared. This has increased the dealer's need for collateral in the form of highly liquid assets (cash and cash equivalents) to back their swap exposures. Facing capital adequacy measures such as Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR), dealers find it even costlier to increase the size of their balance sheet to fund these margins. I show that a 1-percentage point increase in SLR leads to an increase of 1.09 percentage points in the bank's cost of capital per unit of margin requirement. Furthermore, I find the funding spread of the dealers (the difference between the cost of external funding and the risk-free rate) is also a relevant factor for determining the dealer's marginal cost of swap transaction; a cost that is evidently transferred to the end-users in the form of less favorable prices. Measuring the cost of intermediation for the dealer-to-client interest rate swap market is challenging because of the high concentration in the market-- the first seven dealers intermediate more than 50% of the total notional traded. Therefore, one must consider the nontrivial effect of markups in transaction prices to estimate the marginal cost of intermediation reliably. For this reason, I model a differentiated product demand for swaps in the spirit of empirical Industrial Organization (IO) literature and structurally estimate this model to account for the markups in the transaction prices using estimated price elasticities. The demand estimations show economically interpretable heterogeneity among the end-users in their taste for duration risk hedging. The structurally estimated equilibrium model of intermediation can serve as a basis for answering counterfactual policy questions, especially in the debate on the social costs and benefits of excluding initial margins in calculating supplementary leverage ratio. In Chapter 2, I turn the focus to the impact of informational frictions on market-making activity. More specifically, we study the informed trading under random stopping time. Empirical evidence is provided based on an episode of time when the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) unintentionally disclosed security filings to some investors before the public for several years. For technological reasons, the delay between the private and public disclosure was exogenously random. We exploit the variation in the time window of private information to show the intensity of trades and the speed at which market prices reach their efficiency, decrease with the expected arrival time of public announcement. In addition, we find the learning capacity of the insider determines the evolution of trading intensity over time. In Chapter 3, inspired by the stylized facts observed in the earlier chapter, I extend the Kyle (1985) model of strategic trading to a case with limited learning capacity of both the dealers and the informed traders (insiders). The insider does not perfectly observe the true value of the security, but he continues to hone his knowledge by using private information sources over time. Two classes of equilibria emerge from this model. In one class, the insider trades excessively patiently, and the market efficiency is reached only asymptotically. In the second type, the insider optimally chooses a deterministic time T, before which he trades patiently as in Kyle (1985) until the price reaches its full efficiency. After T, the insider keeps revealing every piece of new information immediately, and the market price stays efficient while the insider keeps making profits. Which equilibrium emerges depends on the insider's learning capacity, initial informational advantage, and the private source's informational content.

In recent years European airspace has become increasingly congested and airlines can now observe that en-route capacity constraints are the fastest growing source of flight delays. In 2010 this source of delay accounted for 19% of all flight delays in Europe and has been increasing with an average yearly rate of 17% from 2005 to 2010. This paper suggests and evaluates an approach to how disruption management can be combined with flight planning in order to create more proactive handling of the kind of disruptions, which are caused by congested airspace. The approach is evaluated using data from a medium size European carrier and estimates a lower bound saving of several million USD.

Market makers such as large banks are exposed to market risk in fixed income by acting as a counterparty for customers that enter swap contracts. This master thesis addresses the problem of creating a cost-effective hedge for a realistic swap book of a market maker in a multiple yield curve setting. The proposed hedge model is the two-stage stochastic optimisation problem created by Blomvall and Hagenbjörk (2020). Systematic term structure innovations (components) are estimated using six different component models including principal component analysis (PCA), independent component analysis (ICA) and rotations of principal components. The component models are evaluated with a statistical test that uses daily swap rate observations from the European swap market. The statistical test shows that for both FRA and IRS contracts, a rotation of regular principal components is capable of a more accurate description of swap rate innovations than regular PCA. The hedging model is applied to an FRA and an IRS swap book separately, with daily rebalancing, over the period 2013-06-21 to 2021-05-11. The model produces a highly effective hedge for the tested component methods. However, replacing the PCA components with improved components does not improve the hedge. The study is conducted in collaboration with two other master theses, each done at separate banks. This thesis is done in collaboration with Swedbank and the simulated swap book is based on the exposure of a typical swap book at Swedbank, which is why the European swap market is studied.