This thesis explores the possibility of using Bayesian Structure Learning and Do-Calculus to perform causal inference on data from tactical combat simulations provided by Saab. A four-step approach is considered whose first step is to find a Bayesian Network from the data using Bayesian Structure Learning and Probability Distribution Fitting. These Bayesian Networks describe a set of conditional independencies ambiguously. This ambiguity gives rise to a set of feasible Structural Causal Models that describes feasible causal relationships in the data. The approach then continues in its second step by selecting at least one of these Structural Causal Models that can be utilized for performing causal inference using Do-Calculus and Probabilistic Inference in the approach’s third and fourth steps respectively. The thesis concludes that there exist several difficulties with the approach that together with a lack of a methodology for error estimation reduces the method’s reliability. The recommendation is thus to consider the possibility of performing randomized controlled experiments using the tactical simulator before continuing the development of this approach. / Det här examensarbetet utforskar möjligheten att använda Bayesiansk Strukturinlärning och Do-Calculus för att utföra Kausal Inferens på data från taktiska stridsimuleringar framtagna av Saab. En fyrastegsmetod beaktas vars första steg är att hitta ett Bayesiansk Nätverk genom användandet av Bayesiansk Strukturinlärning och Sannolikhetsfördelnings-anpassning. Dessa Bayesianska Nätverk beskriver en mängd betingade oberoendet i datamängden på ett icke-entydligt sett. Denna icke-entydlighet ger upphov till en mängd av möjliga Strukturella Kausala Modeller som beskriver möjliga kausala strukturer i datamängden. Metodens andra steg fortsätter med att välja minst en av dessa Strukturella Kausala Modeller som kan användas för att åstakomma Kausal Inferens med hjälp av Do-Calculus och Stokastisk Inferens i metodens tredje respektive fjärde steg. Slutsatsen från examensarbetet är att det finns ett flertal svårigheter med metoden som tillsamans med en avsaknad av en feluppskattningsmetodik minskar metodens tillförlitlighet. Rekommendationen är därför att undersöka möjligheten att genomföra kontrollerade slumpmässiga experiment innan metodiken vidareutvecklas.

<p dir="ltr">With increasing frequency, American schools have been plagued with mass casualty events perpetrated by offenders using various types of firearms. In recent years, several studies have used AnyLogic®, an agent-based computer modeling software, to model some of these mass shooting events. More specifically, researchers have modeled mass shooting events and how changes in police response and victim response affect casualty rates in these scenarios. Another model has used the same agent-based software to model mass-casualty events of various venues. The model goes further by integrating what will be known throughout this paper as “the bleed-out model”. The bleed-out model uses known data from these mass casualty events to model types of injuries and their related probability of resulting in a fatality. The model also uses known data about traumatic wound interventions from mass casualty scenarios, as well as law enforcement and military applications, to model life-saving measures to counteract traumatic injuries and decrease the probability of a victim becoming a fatality. This research used AnyLogic® software to integrate agent-based school shooting models with an agent-based bleed-out model. Once combined, individual first aid kits (IFAKs) geared toward traumatic wound/hemorrhaging care were introduced into the environment and their placement was arranged in several different ways. AnyLogic® software and quantitative analysis were used to make recommendations about best practices for implementing IFAKS in schools. This research specifically examines whether the placement distance for IFAKS in schools during an active shooter incident could have a statistically significant impact on the survivability of active shooter victims. Different scenarios are assessed in the AnyLogic® model varying the placement of a fixed number of IFAKS throughout the school during an incident.</p>

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Games have been a field of interest for researchin artificial intelligence for decades. As of now, it is over 5years ago an AI for the strategy game Go, AlphaGo, beat worldchampion Lee Sedol 4-1, which was considered to be an enormousmilestone for AI. Our goal is to make an AI that can play theclassic strategy board game Stratego at a competent level. Thisis achieved by making the AI learn by repeatedly playing againstitself to figure out what strategy to use in various situations byusing CFR - counterfactual regret minimization. According toour experiments, we were able to accomplish our goal in makinga Stratego AI that could play at a sophisticated level for a smallerversion of the game. We concluded that it was able to play betterthan an amateur human player. / Spel har varit ett intresseområde inomutvecklingen av artificiell intelligens i årtionden. Det är redanfem år sedan AlphaGo slog världsmästaren Lee Sedol i Go 2016,vilket betraktas vara ett stort steg för utvecklingen av AI. Vårtmål är att skapa en AI som kan spela strategispelet Stratego på en kompetent nivå. Detta kommer att implementeras genom att AI:n spelar mot sig själv en stor mängd gånger och uppdaterarsin strategi baserat på konceptet CFR counterfactual regretminimization. Enligt våra experiment lyckades vi med vårt mål i att skapa en kompetent Stratego AI för en mindre version avStratego. Vår uppfattning är att den spelar bättre än en människapå amatörnivå. / Kandidatexjobb i elektroteknik 2021, KTH, Stockholm

Stressors stemming from tactical policing such as social isolation and increased work responsibilities often spill over into the home and affect personal relationships. Using attachment theory as the guiding framework, this mixed methods study aimed to obtain a better understanding of the factors involved in maintaining long-term relationships between tactical officers and their romantic partners. Phase I consisted of surveys administered to tactical officers in Kentucky and measured romantic partner attachment, organizational and operational police stressors. Research questions examined how operational and organizational stress correlated with attachment while controlling for demographics. Analysis indicated that holding a rank above an officer has a significant relationship to both operational and organizational stress. Influenced by the findings from phase I, phase II consisted of 30 qualitative interviews with both tactical officers and their romantic partners. Using elements of attachment theory, symbolic interactionism, and components comprising the spirit of grounded theory, four primary themes with supporting subthemes were discovered: (1) communication, a key component of successful relationships; (2) isolation, particularly from socializing with those outside policing or tactical policing; (3) job related stress, where participants indicated more stress with tactical duties; and (4) tactical team as family and trust where participants indicated that personal support among team members was essential to building the mutual trust needed for the dangers of tactical policing. These themes indicated important findings including better communication between couples who had a romantic partner working in a criminal justice related field and discovery of stressors unique to tactical policing including increased job-related stress pertaining to the higher physical, moral and intellectual standards needed for tactical policing. Participant-based advice and recommendations for more tailored support services for tactical officers and their families were also developed from the findings of phase II and included a need for family notification systems and creation of family-oriented trainings. Relationships between the phases highlighted unique aspects of police subculture within tactical policing and its effects on the personal and occupational lives of tactical officers.

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / The Marine Corps is fielding the MTVR Truck as a replacement for its aging fleet of five-ton cargo trucks. The MTVR is an Acquisition Category II program that was a multi-service Army-Marine Corps program. The purpose of this thesis is to examine the effectiveness of having an Army Product Office execute a Marine Corps Program. The study analyzes the effectiveness of the timing of the program's transition from the Army to the Marine Corps. A detailed literature search, as well as information gathered from attending various IPRs and conducting interviews with program officials and contractors, provided the basis for the in-depth background study presented. Analysis of the data gathered led to a justification for multi-service managed programs, as well as to recommendations on the timing of the MTVR program transition. / Civilian, United States Army

I tested two pairs of captive chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) in the informed forager paradigm: a subordinate saw the location of hidden bait, and then searched with a naïve dominant. This paradigm has tested what subjects know about others' states of knowledge, but my focus was to determine how subjects used different movement types and different gaze types to modify their competitive tactics. In particular, I investigated whether chimpanzees follow opponents' gaze to gain information. Learning more about how primates use visual information to predict others' behaviour can shed light on the continuing debate over to what degree apes possess theory of mind capacities. Previous published studies in this paradigm included narratives of ignorant competitors exploiting informed subjects by following their movement and gaze, and informed subjects avoided this exploitation by walking away from hidden food. The subordinate's behaviour can be considered tactical deception, which is a good place to seek strong evidence of second-order intentionality. Analyses with descriptive statistics, however, fail to capture the complexity of these interactions, which range from single decision-making points to larger patterns of following and misleading. I introduced a novel method of statistical analysis, cross correlations, that enabled me to examine behavioural patterns quantitatively that previous authors have only been able to describe in narrative form. Though previous studies on chimpanzees' understanding of gaze found that they were unable to use (human-given) gaze cues to locate hidden food, the subjects I tested followed their conspecific opponent's gaze, and used information gained from the gaze interaction to modify their own movement towards the hidden bait. Dominants adjusted their physical following of the subordinates as the interaction progressed, which reflected their changed states of knowledge. Subordinates used their movement and gaze differentially to manipulate dominants' behaviour, by withholding information and by recruiting towards a less-preferred bait.

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) are now being introduced into the fleet to improve Mine Warfare capabilities. Several AUVs are under government-contracted development. Mission planning and data reporting vary between vehicles and systems. This variance does not pose an immediate problem, as only one AUV is currently in production. However, as more AUVs are put into production, commands will begin to get multiple AUVs. Without a single mission command language, multiple systems will require familiarity with multiple languages. Extensible Markup Language (XML) and related technologies may be used to facilitate interoperability between dissimilar AUVs and extract and integrate mission data into Navy C4I systems. XML makes archive maintenance easier, XML documents can be accessed via an http server, and, in root form, XML is transferable on the fly by stylesheet. This thesis presents an XML-based mission command for the command and control of AUVs. In addition, this thesis discusses XML technology and how XML is a viable means of achieving interoperability. Furthermore, this thesis provides an example mission file using existing software, and demonstrates the future of XML in AUV technology. Finally, this work ends with a compelling argument for the use of an XML-based mission command language to command all AUVs. / Ensign, United States Navy / Captain, United States Air Force

[pt] A importância das Compras organizacionais pode ser explicada, em parte, pelo alto impacto dos custos envolvidos. A estratégica das atividades de Compras vem se evidenciando nas organizações, independentemente do tamanho e da natureza do negócio. Essa importância fez surgir um estudo profundo das categorias de produtos e do mercado fornecedor, tendo como consequência, além da melhoria dos processos, a padronização dos itens de um mesmo produto para diversas unidades de um negócio; a seleção e qualificação de fornecedores; avaliação do desempenho dos prestadores de serviço e fornecedores de materiais; negociação entre as partes interessadas em uma contratação; e o monitoramento dos níveis de estoque para planejamento de futuras aquisições. Nessa dissertação, é abordada a gestão de categorias de compras a partir da análise crítica das categorias de compras de itens de tecnologia da informação e comunicação (TIC) em uma empresa de petróleo. Este estudo se torna relevante devido à importância do tema que gera desafios e oportunidades de formalizar, organizar e padronizar os processos de gestão de suprimentos na área de TIC da empresa. Para tanto, os itens da carteira de compras da área TIC foram classificados de acordo com a Matriz de Kraljic (1983), segundo a visão do pessoal da própria área de TIC e das áreas responsáveis pela gestão do macro processo suprir bens e serviços e gestão de contratos. Assim, foram identificados os fatores ao longo da cadeia de suprimentos que contribuem para a divergência da classificação entre as áreas. Desta forma, foi feita a validadação da análise nas dimensões: redução de custo da cadeia de suprimentos, melhoria do nível de serviço, redução do risco de descontinuidade de suprimento e priorização de materiais e produtos. Esta validação procurou verificar a aderência do modelo utilizado às premissas estabelecidas pela empresa. Como conclusão, são propostas alterações necessárias na classificação e recomendações em relação aos procedimentos e estratégias de compras a serem adotados pela área de TIC. / [en] The importance of organizational Purchases can be explained partly by the high impact of the costs involved. Strategic Purchasing of activities has been evident in organizations, regardless of size and nature of business. This importance made a deep study of the product categories and vendor market, resulting in addition of process improvement, standardization of items of the same product to different units of a business arise; the selection and qualification of suppliers; assess the performance of contractors and suppliers of materials; negotiation between the parties in a contract; and monitoring of inventory levels for planning future acquisitions. In this dissertation, we discuss management of categories of purchases from the critical analysis of the categories of purchases items of information and communication technology (ICT) in an oil company. This study is relevant because of the importance of the topic that generates challenges and opportunities to formalize, organize and standardize the processes of supply management in the ICT area of the company. To do so, the items of ICT area portfolio were classified according to Kraljic Matrix (1983), according to the vision of their own area of ICT staff and the areas responsible for managing the macro process supplying goods and services and management of contracts. Thus, the factors were identified along the supply chain that contributes to the divergence between the areas of classification. Thus, it was made validation analysis dimensions: cost reduction of supply, improving the level of service, reduces the risk of supply interruption and prioritization of materials and products chain. This validation tried to check adherence of the model used the premises established by the company. In conclusion, we propose necessary changes in classification and recommendations regarding procedures and sourcing strategies to be adopted by the ICT area.

O presente trabalho aborda o Problema de Coleta Domiciliar Urbana (PCDU) de resíduos sólidos, tratado no nível tático de planejamento, em que zonas de coleta são definidas para cada dia da semana e designadas aos veículos coletores, cuja frota deve ser dimensionada. O problema estudado é baseado em um caso real, o qual possui como particularidades: cada zona de coleta é formada por regiões adjacentes e será representada por um nó-semente; a demanda de cada zona deverá ser atendida dentro do período de uma semana, conforme múltiplos programas possíveis de coleta; em um turno de um dia de trabalho um veículo poderá realizar múltiplas viagens; e há uma garagem para a frota e uma estação de transbordo, a qual possibilita que o veículo seja esvaziado para realizar outras viagens. A literatura apresenta alguns métodos heurísticos para a resolução de variantes deste problema, sendo os métodos exatos utilizados somente na resolução de instâncias pequenas, dado que o problema de VRP (Vehicle Routing Problem) é classificado como NP-hard. A imposição de adjacência é uma característica particular, a qual é justificada pela possível melhoria na utilização dos veículos em posterior planejamento operacional. São propostos um modelo matemático e um método heurístico para resolver o problema, sobre os quais são realizados experimentos computacionais. O método heurístico é aplicado sobre um estudo de caso de um problema de escala real, sendo obtida solução heurística como resultado. / The present work addresses the Urban Household Solid Waste Problem (UHSWP) on a tactical planning level, wherein collection zones are assigned to every week daywork and collection vehicles, which fleet is to be sized. The studied problem is based on a real case, such peculiarities as: each collection zone is a set of adjacent areas and a seed node represents it; the demand each zone must attended within a week, according to the several possible collection schedule; on a work day shift a vehicle can be assigned to multiple trips; and there is a base depot for the fleet and a transfer station, where the vehicles are unloaded, restoring their load capacity for the next trips. Literature presents heuristic methods for the solving of its problem variants, in which exact methos are only applied to small instances, due to the VRP (Vehicle Routing Problem) NP-hard property. The adjacency imposition is a peculiar feature, which is justified by the potential improvement on vehicle usage considering a posterior operational planning. A mathematical model and a heuristic method are proposed for the problem solving and evaluated by computational experiments. A real scale problem case study is solved by the heuristic method and the results are presented.