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La chaîne logistique humanitaire (CLH) est essentielle pour assurer une réponse performante aux crises humanitaires. Les Organisations Humanitaires (OH) ont fait des efforts pendant les dernières décennies afin d'améliorer la réponse à la crise en termes d'efficience et d’efficacité. Tout de même, la performance est mise à l’épreuve dû au manque de fonds, et à l'augmentation des besoins humanitaires, le delta ne cessant pas de s’accroître. Les principaux donateurs exigent de plus en plus de transparence et de justification des dépenses. De plus, la pression de l’opinion publique et de la communauté internationale amène les OH à prendre en compte les enjeux du développement durable dans un futur proche. C'est dans ce contexte, et avec des études au terrain, qu'on a pu constater les difficultés pour intégrer le développent durable dans la prise de décision de la CLH. Le manque d'outils d'aide à la décision ainsi qu’une culture du développement durable spécifique à la CLH sont identifiés comme des freins pour améliorer la planification durable des opérations humanitaires. Le travail de recherche cherche à introduire la notion de développement durable dans la gestion des réseaux logistiques humanitaires. L'approche retenue est le développement d'un système d'aide à la décision basé sur la performance pour planifier les opérations de la CLH. Dans ce sens, trois directions de recherche ont été explorées : (a) Comment recueillir une connaissance exhaustive de la CLH pour la recherche terrain ainsi que pour développer des Systèmes d'Aide à la Décision adéquats ? La contribution proposée est une méthodologie pour la recherche terrain qui s’appuie sur un Meta-Modèle de la CLH. (b) Qu'est-ce que la durabilité signifie dans le contexte de CLH ? En base à une revue littéraire ainsi qu’aux recherches terrain, on a établi un cadre pour définir la performance durable d'une CLH. (c) Comment prendre des décisions durables au cours de la réponse humanitaire ? Cette contribution est basée sur un algorithme de Recherche Opérationnelle qui permet d'intégrer la performance durable dans la prise de décision avec une approche interactive. La thèse illustre les trois contributions avec des études de cas basées sur la CLH de la IFRC. / The Humanitarian supply Chain is a key element to enhance a performing response to humanitarian crisis. Because of the internal and external pressure, Humanitarian Organizations (HO) has done efforts during last decades to improve the crisis response in terms of effectiveness and efficiency. However, the performance is challenged by the increasing gap between funding and needs. The main donors ask for more transparency and accountability. Moreover, the pressure from the international community is pushing HO to integrate Sustainability challenges on a near future. Is in this context, and field research results, that the difficulties to consider sustainability on HSC decision-making. The lack of Decision Support Systems and a sustainability culture specific to the HSC have been identified as break to improve the planning of sustainable humanitarian operations. This research work seeks to introduce the sustainability notion to the management of the HSC. The approach followed is the development of a decision support system based on performance, to plan the HSC operations. Three research directions have been explored: (a) How to gather an exhaustive knowledge of a HSC, for both field research and development of DSS? The proposed contribution is a Meta-Model of the HSC, for field research porpoise and for developing adequate Decision Support Systems. (b) What sustainability means in HSC context? Based on a literature review and field research, a framework is established to define the HSC sustainable performance. (c) How to make sustainable decisions during humanitarian response? This contribution is based on an Operational Research Algorithm, which permits to integrate the sustainable performance on decision making with an interactive approach. The thesis illustrates the three contributions with use cases based on the International Federation of the Red Cross (IFRC).

A training method utilized in a few martial arts was found to agree strongly with current cognitive psychology theory. Further study extracted a procedural model for learning a complex set of whole-body, dyadic motor skills involving high-speed, interactive, continuous situation assessment and decision making. A broader literature survey found relevance in several fields of research, supporting the definition of four performance dimensions in the activity. Data collected from one experienced student partnering with each of ten students of various experience levels was analyzed on these four dimensions. These dimensions were found sufficient to show both individual differences and changes across an instructional intervention. Strong correlations found under linear regression were supportive of anecdotal evidence from the model??s long empirical history in training. Data provided evidence of a self-organizing dynamic emerging from the interaction of a dyad participating in this activity, and of individual differences in cognitive resource management dynamically setting allocation priorities among specific aspects of a complex motor/cognitive activity. Highly individual responses demonstrate a mechanism for insight into students that are difficult to read. Numerous comparisons and contrasts show interactivity of performance dimensions. Impact is foreseen for research, training and testing in motor learning fields, as well as situation awareness, decision making and military tactical training. Further research is recommended to replicate these findings, test hypotheses derived from them, and to extend testing of the drill-network model into other fields of learning.

<p>Finlands kamp mot det mycket större Sovjetunionen under vinterkriget skildras i denna uppsats i form av en fallstudie av slaget i Suomussalmi. Det görs även en beskrivning av de militärteorier som är centrala för analysen i uppsatsen.</p><p>Finlands sätt att strida och nyttja taktiken under detta slag är tillämpbart för att studera militärteorier som Försvarsmakten idag använder i sina doktriner för markarenan. Teorierna som slaget analyseras kring rör manövertänkande, krigföringsförmågan och de taktiska grundprinciperna.</p><p>Uppsatsen undersöker i vilken omfattning den finska sidan använde sig av manövertänkande och vilka förmågor som spelade en avgörande roll i slaget. Även sambandet mellan manövertänkande och de taktiska grundprinciperna undersöks.</p><p>Slutsatserna visar att rörligheten var den förmåga som spelade störst roll för den finska sidans framgångar. Det framkommer också att många finska chefer använde sig av manövertänkande. Slutsatserna visar även hur manövertänkande på ett positivt sätt påverkar chefens möjligheter att använda sig av de taktiska grundprinciperna.</p> / <p>Finland’s struggle against the much larger Soviet union during the Winter War is in this essay described as a case study of the Battle of Suomussalmi. Furthermore, descriptions of the theories of warfare that is essential for the final analysis of the essay.</p><p>The Finnish tactics during this battle are applicable for studies of the warfare theories that the Swedish Armed Forces use in their doctrines for ground combat. The theories that the battle is used for studying are those of maneuver thinking, warfare abilities, and the basic tactical principles.</p><p>The essay discusses to what extent the Finnish commanders used maneuver thinking and what warfare abilities played the essential role for the outcome of the battle. Moreover, the relation between maneuver thinking and the basic tactical principles is resolved.</p><p>The conclusions show that mobility was the ability that played the most significant part for the Finnish Army’s success. They also show that many Finnish commanders used maneuver thinking, and how maneuver thinking adds to the commander’s possibilities to use the basic tactical principles.</p>

<p>I början av 1950-talet utvecklades en idé att flottan skulle bli lättare. Detta berodde delvis på ekonomiska faktorer samt att flottans större system såsom pansarskepp började bli föråldrade. Den tekniska utvecklingen bidrog även till att system som radarn gjorde intrång. Sjömålsroboten och den trådstyrda torpeden kunde skjutas från mindre plattformar vilket gjorde det möjligt med en lättare flotta. Hotet vid denna tid sågs som Sovjetunionen. Ytstridskrafterna skulle i händelse av krig vara beredda att möta en starkare motståndares landstigningsoperationer. Denna uppsats undersöker vissa områden av den taktiska utvecklingen som skedde under denna period. Detta görs genom en textanalys av litteratur på ämnet. Analysen behandlar områden som hotbild, teknik samt egna sjöstridskrafter, organisation samt uppgifter. Slutsatser som dragits är bl.a. tekniken utvecklades i snabb takt och spelade stor roll. Hotbilden var viktig vid utformandet av egen doktrin och strategi vilket ledde till förändringar inom taktiken. Egna sjöstridskrafters utveckling hämmades av ekonomiska styrningar vilket ledde till att kompromisser fick göras som påverkade kvaliteten på enheterna.</p> / <p>In the early fifties the Swedish Navy wanted to get lighter. This development took place mostly because of economical factors and the fact that bigger ships in the navy was getting old. Important systems such as radar were implemented in the Swedish Navy. The ship to ship missile and the wire guided torpedo could be fired from smaller vessels and this contributed to the development. The Soviet union was regarded as the main threat and the Swedish surface warfare units would in warface a stronger opponent and try to prevent him from landing on Swedish shores. This study tries to examine certain areas within the subject tactical development during this period. This is made by analyzing literature in the subject. The analyze is conducted in three predefined areas. The areas are: Threats, technological advances and own surface warfare units and their organisation and tasks. Some of the main conclusions are that the technology advanced in a rapid pace and was vital to the development of tactics. The threat of the Soviet union made differences in the naval doctrine and strategy which made changes in tactics. Economical factors forced the Swedish Navy to compromise when building new ships which affected the quality of the units.</p>

I början av 1950-talet utvecklades en idé att flottan skulle bli lättare. Detta berodde delvis på ekonomiska faktorer samt att flottans större system såsom pansarskepp började bli föråldrade. Den tekniska utvecklingen bidrog även till att system som radarn gjorde intrång. Sjömålsroboten och den trådstyrda torpeden kunde skjutas från mindre plattformar vilket gjorde det möjligt med en lättare flotta. Hotet vid denna tid sågs som Sovjetunionen. Ytstridskrafterna skulle i händelse av krig vara beredda att möta en starkare motståndares landstigningsoperationer. Denna uppsats undersöker vissa områden av den taktiska utvecklingen som skedde under denna period. Detta görs genom en textanalys av litteratur på ämnet. Analysen behandlar områden som hotbild, teknik samt egna sjöstridskrafter, organisation samt uppgifter. Slutsatser som dragits är bl.a. tekniken utvecklades i snabb takt och spelade stor roll. Hotbilden var viktig vid utformandet av egen doktrin och strategi vilket ledde till förändringar inom taktiken. Egna sjöstridskrafters utveckling hämmades av ekonomiska styrningar vilket ledde till att kompromisser fick göras som påverkade kvaliteten på enheterna. / In the early fifties the Swedish Navy wanted to get lighter. This development took place mostly because of economical factors and the fact that bigger ships in the navy was getting old. Important systems such as radar were implemented in the Swedish Navy. The ship to ship missile and the wire guided torpedo could be fired from smaller vessels and this contributed to the development. The Soviet union was regarded as the main threat and the Swedish surface warfare units would in warface a stronger opponent and try to prevent him from landing on Swedish shores. This study tries to examine certain areas within the subject tactical development during this period. This is made by analyzing literature in the subject. The analyze is conducted in three predefined areas. The areas are: Threats, technological advances and own surface warfare units and their organisation and tasks. Some of the main conclusions are that the technology advanced in a rapid pace and was vital to the development of tactics. The threat of the Soviet union made differences in the naval doctrine and strategy which made changes in tactics. Economical factors forced the Swedish Navy to compromise when building new ships which affected the quality of the units.

Finlands kamp mot det mycket större Sovjetunionen under vinterkriget skildras i denna uppsats i form av en fallstudie av slaget i Suomussalmi. Det görs även en beskrivning av de militärteorier som är centrala för analysen i uppsatsen. Finlands sätt att strida och nyttja taktiken under detta slag är tillämpbart för att studera militärteorier som Försvarsmakten idag använder i sina doktriner för markarenan. Teorierna som slaget analyseras kring rör manövertänkande, krigföringsförmågan och de taktiska grundprinciperna. Uppsatsen undersöker i vilken omfattning den finska sidan använde sig av manövertänkande och vilka förmågor som spelade en avgörande roll i slaget. Även sambandet mellan manövertänkande och de taktiska grundprinciperna undersöks. Slutsatserna visar att rörligheten var den förmåga som spelade störst roll för den finska sidans framgångar. Det framkommer också att många finska chefer använde sig av manövertänkande. Slutsatserna visar även hur manövertänkande på ett positivt sätt påverkar chefens möjligheter att använda sig av de taktiska grundprinciperna. / Finland’s struggle against the much larger Soviet union during the Winter War is in this essay described as a case study of the Battle of Suomussalmi. Furthermore, descriptions of the theories of warfare that is essential for the final analysis of the essay. The Finnish tactics during this battle are applicable for studies of the warfare theories that the Swedish Armed Forces use in their doctrines for ground combat. The theories that the battle is used for studying are those of maneuver thinking, warfare abilities, and the basic tactical principles. The essay discusses to what extent the Finnish commanders used maneuver thinking and what warfare abilities played the essential role for the outcome of the battle. Moreover, the relation between maneuver thinking and the basic tactical principles is resolved. The conclusions show that mobility was the ability that played the most significant part for the Finnish Army’s success. They also show that many Finnish commanders used maneuver thinking, and how maneuver thinking adds to the commander’s possibilities to use the basic tactical principles.

Questa tesi è composta da 3 differenti lavori che ci confermano la prevedibilità degli extra rendimenti rispetto al mercato usando semplici strategie di portafoglio azionario utilizzabili sia dal semplice risparmiatore sia dall'investitore istituzionale. Nel primo capitolo è stata analizzata la profittabilità della contrarian strategy nel mercato azionario Italiano. In letteratura é stato già abbondantemente dimostrato che i rendimenti azionari sono caratterizzati da un’autocorrelazione negativa nel breve periodo e da un effetto di ritorno alla media nel lungo periodo. La contrarian strategy é utilizzata per trarre profitto dalla correlazione seriale negativa dei rendimenti azionari, infatti, vendendo i titoli che si sono rivelati vincenti nel passato (in termini di rendimento) e acquistando quelli "perdenti" si ottengono profitti inaspettati. Nel secondo paper, l'analisi si focalizza sulla strategia di portafoglio definita Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA). La Dollar Cost Averaging si riferisce a una semplice metodologia di portafoglio che prevede di investire una somma fissa di denaro in un'attività rischiosa a uguali intervalli di tempo, per tutto l'orizzonte temporale prefissato. Il lavoro si propone di confrontare i vantaggi, in termini di riduzione sostanziale del rischio, di questa strategia dal punto di vista di un semplice risparmiatore. Nell'ultimo capitolo, ipotizzando di essere un investitore istituzionale che possiede ogni giorno numerose informazioni e previsioni, ho cercato di capire come egli può usare tutte le informazioni in suo possesso per decidere prontamente come allocare al meglio il patrimonio del fondo. L’investitore normalmente cerca di identificare la migliore previsione possibile, ma quasi sempre non riesce ad identificare l’esatto processo dei prezzi sottostanti. Quest’osservazione ha condotto molti ricercatori ad utilizzare numerosi fattori esplicativi per ottenere un buona previsione. Il paper supporta l’esistente letteratura che utilizza un nuovo approccio per trasformare previsioni di rendimenti in scelte di gestione di portafoglio che possano offrire una maggiore performance del portafoglio.Partendo dal modello d’incertezza di Pesaran e Timmerman(1996), considero un cospicuo numero di fattori macroeconomici per identificare un modello predittivo che mi permetta di prevedere i movimenti del mercato tenendo presente i maggiori indicatori economici e finanziari e considerato che il loro rispettivo potere predittivo cambia nel tempo. / This thesis is composed by three different papers that confirm us the predictability of expected returns using different simple portfolio strategy and under different point of view (i.e. a generic saver and institutional investor). In the first chapter, I investigate the profitability of contrarian strategy in the Italian Stock Market. However empirical research has shown that asset returns tend to exhibit some form of negative autocorrelation in the short term and mean-reversion over long horizons. Contrarian strategy is used to take advantage of serial correlation in stock price returns, such that selling winners and buying losers generates abnormal profits. On the second chapter, the analyse is focused in another classic portfolio strategy called Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA). Dollar Cost Averaging refers to an investment methodology in which a set dollar amount is invested in a risky asset at equal intervals over a holding period. The paper compares the advantages and risk of this strategy from the point of view of a saver. Lastly, supposing to be an institutional investor who has a large number of information and forecasts, I tried to understand how using all them he decide with dispatch how to allocate the portfolio fund. When a wide set of forecasts of some future economic events are available, decision makers usually attempt to discover which is the best forecast, but in almost all cases a decision maker cannot identify ex ante the true process. This observation has led researchers to introduce several sources of uncertainty in forecasting exercises. The paper supporting the existent literature employs a novel approaches to transform predicted returns into portfolio asset allocations, and their relative performances. First of all dealing with model uncertainty, as Pesaran and Timmerman (1996), I consider a richer parameterization for the forecasting model to find that the predictive power of various economic and financial factors over excess returns change through time.

Försvarsmakten genomgår, sedan snart tio år tillbaka, en transformering mot ett insatsförsvar med ökad försvarsförmåga. Behovet av luftburen taktisk transport har i denna transformering blivit alltmer betydelsefullt, främst vid internationella insatser. Författaren ställer sig dock frågan hur den taktiska luftburna transporten är tänkt att användas vid nationella insatser. Syftet med uppsatsen är således att utifrån Försvarsmaktens doktriner, Militärstrategisk doktrin och Doktrin för luftoperationer, undersöka om den resurs som det taktiska transportflyget utgör i det framtida användbara försvaret vid nationella insatser är att anse som kritisk. För att svara på syftet analyseras hur det användbara försvaret är tänkt att nyttjas vid nationella insatser, vilka målsättningar som finns för det taktiska transportflyget samt hur denna förmåga ser ut i dagsläget. Författaren använder sig sedan av de teorier som hämtats från doktrinerna för att analysera hur taktisk luftburen transport kan kopplas samman med den nya insatsorganisationen. Det genomförs även en jämförelse mellan de målsättningar som finns för den taktiska luftburna transporten med situationen i dagsläget i syfte att analysera hur framtiden kommer att se ut. Slutsatsen är att det taktiska transportflyget är av vikt men att det ej utgör en kritisk resurs i det användbara försvaret vid nationella insatser. Författaren gör även bedömningen att tillgängligheten på de flygplan som används för luftburen taktisk transport kommer att vara betydligt lägre än vad som planerats. / The Swedish Armed Forces is, since approximately ten years back, experiencing a transformation towards an improved defence capability. The importance of tactical air transport has within this transformation become of greater importance, especially concerning international operations. The author is, however, curios about how tactical air transport is to be implemented within domestic operations. Hence the purpose of the essay is to analyze, with the help of the two doctrines: Militärstrategisk doktrin and Doktrin för luftoperationer, if the resource that the tactical air transport constitutes to the new Swedish Armed Forces is to be seen as a crucial one within domestic operations? To answer the purpose the author analyzes how the new Swedish Armed Forces is intended to operate when it comes to domestic operations, what goals are set up for the tactical air transport and what the situation is like at the moment. The author then uses the theories described in the military doctrines to analyze how tactical air transport can be linked to the new Swedish Armed Forces .There is also a comparison made between the current state of the tactical air transport and the goals set up within the new organisation with the purpose of analyzing what the future might look like. The conclusion is reached that tactical air transport is of great importance to the new Swedish Armed Forces but that it is not to be seen as a crucial resource. The author also predicts that the availability of the aircraft fleet used for tactical air transport will be lower then planned.

This essay is about the tactical basic principles as they are mentioned in the Swedish Doctrine for land based operations (2005) and the German side during the battle of Verdun 1916. The purpose of this essay is to clarify whether the used doctrine is appropriate to use on future attrition battles.         This is done by a case study of the German side during the battle ofVerdun. In this case study indicators of the basic principles are then identified and analysed with the starting point at the two questions that the essay is based around.  The essay starts with an introduction where above is attended, in the second part the basic principles, the background to the battle and the battle itself is described. Finally the tactical basic principles are analysed and discussed based on the questions that the essay is based on. In the analysis and the discussion the conclusion is drawn that the tactical basic principles were present on the German side during the battle of Verdun and that they are of a general character and may be applied on both attrition warfare of 1916 and modern battles of attrition. / Denna uppsats avhandlar de taktiska grundprinciperna som de står angivna i Doktrin för markoperationer (2005) och tysk sida under slaget vid Verdun 1916. Syftet med detta är att utröna om doktrinen gällande de taktiska grundprinciperna är generell nog för att tillämpa på ett framtida utnötningsslag. Detta har utförts genom en fallstudie av den tyska sidan under slaget vid Verdun. I denna fallstudie har sedan indikatorer på de taktiska grundprinciperna identifierats, analyserats och diskuterats utifrån de två frågor arbetet utgår ifrån. Arbetet är indelat i en inledning där ovanstående behandlas, en avhandling där de taktiska grundprinciperna och slaget beskrivs. Därefter analyseras slaget utifrån grundprinciperna och slutligen besvaras och diskuteras frågorna. I analysen framgår det att alla de taktiska grundprinciperna som de anges i Doktrin för markoperationer förekom på tysk sida under slaget vid Verdun. Dessa är generella och är aktuella både idag och 1916.