以前在台灣房地產開發市場上主要的房屋銷售模式是預售制度，這是受限於當時政治、經濟的環境條件下，所形成的特殊制度，主要的原因就是需要從市場中，獲得足夠的營運週轉資金；但是台灣的房地產市場在這幾年來逐漸轉變，已經出現為數不少的成屋銷售個案，主要著眼於當房地產市場景氣上揚時，延遲銷售能夠使專案獲得更大的報酬，而且當房地產專案融資的取得逐漸放寬，資金來源不在成為限制條件時，預售房屋可能已不再是唯一的銷售模式，且可能不再是最適銷售模式，但市場上房地產業者仍延續以前的思考模式，以融資比例的大小（有錢沒錢），作為判斷銷售時機的決策依據。本研究所想要研究的方向是最適銷售時機的選擇與融資決策是否會影響銷售時機的選擇，在各種不同市場條件下最適銷售時機與選擇權價值的變化。 本研究以實質選擇權（Real Options）模式探討新建房屋最適銷售時機，但以應用以前學者所推導的模式並不做模式的推導；首先以建立市場中專案營收的模式與建立實質選擇權決策模式，模擬房地產業者營運情境，並以隨機亂數帶入房價與融資利率模擬模式中，以模擬房地產市場中房價與融資利率，將模擬結果帶入所建立的模式中，模擬不同房地產市場條件下專案的營收，並藉由不同的決策值所模擬的專案營收，探討房地產市場中新建房屋的最適銷售時機的選擇與選擇權的價值。並且將模式中所應用的各變數予以獨立（在其他條件不變下，僅改變該變數）做敏感性分析，探討各模式中變數對於選擇最適銷售時機與實質選擇價值變化所產生的影響，以瞭解房地產市場中各外生變數，對於房地產市場新建房屋最適銷售時機與實質選擇權價值所可能造成的影響，與所應該注意的涵義。 第壹章 緒論 第壹節 研究動機與目的 1 第貳節 研究範圍與限制 5 第參節 研究架構 7 第貳章 產業分析與個案訪談 第壹節 銷售時機 11 第貳節 不動產金融 25 第參節 文獻探討與個案研究對本研究的涵意 28 第參章 文獻探討 第壹節 最適銷售時機模式 32 第貳節 文獻探討與個案研究對本研究的涵意 51 第肆章 模式建構與模式設計 第壹節 最適銷售時機 56 第貳節 研究設計 67 第伍章 實證結果分析 第壹節 融資決策與最適銷售時機 75 第貳節 實質選擇權價值敏感性分析 81 第參節 最適銷售時機選擇敏感性分析 90 第陸章 結論與建議 第壹節 研究結果涵義 104 第貳節 建議 110 參考文獻 中文部份 114 英文部份 115

Submitted by Rickie Viana Costa (rickieviana@gmail.com) on 2016-12-28T19:02:12Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Rickie Costa_v. Final FGV (1).pdf: 2153965 bytes, checksum: 22fb7ed5dbf1929ddec7d091c3dedebe (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Janete de Oliveira Feitosa (janete.feitosa@fgv.br) on 2017-01-02T12:05:50Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Rickie Costa_v. Final FGV (1).pdf: 2153965 bytes, checksum: 22fb7ed5dbf1929ddec7d091c3dedebe (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-01-03T16:53:30Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Rickie Costa_v. Final FGV (1).pdf: 2153965 bytes, checksum: 22fb7ed5dbf1929ddec7d091c3dedebe (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-12-02 / Existe no Brasil uma dificuldade para se conseguir financiamento para um projeto de infraestrutura junto a bancos comerciais. Essa dificuldade está relacionada a fatores micro, como o desconhecimento de investidores sobre os processos de análise de projeto e risco em um banco brasileiro, até a fatores macro, relacionados à conjuntura econômica brasileira e setorial de infraestrutura. Cada banco possui um modelo de análise de crédito e risco particular para decidir se concede ou não um financiamento. Dado o grande volume de recursos que é necessário para se fazer uma obra de infraestrutura, sem o financiamento bancário, além de incentivos do governo, investidores não enxergam viabilidade e retorno suficientes para fazer esse investimento. Como forma de diminuir e diluir o risco entre bancos, investidores e outras contrapartes envolvidas em um projeto de infraestrutura, tende-se a adotar mundialmente a estrutura do Project Finance, que se tornou chave também no Brasil para se obter sucesso de financiamento junto ao BNDES e a bancos comerciais. O papel do BNDES é fundamental na estrutura de financiamento no Brasil, uma vez que este concede empréstimos a juros subsidiados, reduzindo o custo de capital médio ponderado (WACC) dos projetos, fator decisivo para torná-los atrativos à investidores. O Project Finance é importante não só por diluir os riscos entre as partes, mas principalmente por esta estrutura permitir aos bancos preverem e anteciparem diversos riscos que podem ocorrer naquele projeto. Esse maior conhecimento os permite criar mecanismos contratuais específicos para aquele financiamento e os protege desses riscos prováveis. Covenants, obrigações e garantias podem, então, se tornar um dos principais pontos de discussão entre os Sponsors e Lenders processo de estruturação de um financiamento, ponto este que será estudado neste trabalho por meio de dois estudos de caso reais de financiamento a portos marítimos em um banco brasileiro.

There has been a rapid growth of private participation in infrastructure projects throughout the world in the last three decades. China as the largest developing country in the world has a huge amount of demands for high quality infrastructure projects and public services. The government has actively developed and used the Build-Operation-Transfer (BOT) model to deliver public facilities and services, particularly after 2002. Certain benefits have been brought by the adoption of the BOT model in China's motorway and water sectors. However, issues were also found in the processes behind BOT applications. International organisations as well as scholars suggested that China should learn experiences and lessons from the UK and its PFI scheme. The UK has been the leading country to use private finance in developing public buildings and services. However, very little has been written addressing how lessons from British PFIs can be learnt by China to improve its BOT practice. This study is an attempt to address this vacuum in the existed literature. It was designed to explore the current problems of using BOTs in Chinese motorway and water sectors and looks at what needs to be improved, based upon the PFI lessons in the UK. A mixture of qualitative and quantitative methods has been employed and various methods of data collection used in this study. These included: 21 interviews, 2 observations and one focus group and the analysis on 14 government reports about BOTs in China. The governments' decision-makers, directors, project managers and contractors were involved in the research to explore the results and emerging issues involving the implementation of BOT models in 87 Chinese motorway and water projects in 10 cities covering six provinces. As a result of its findings, the research is able to discuss and identify the relevant experiences and lessons from PFIs in the UK to improve further application of China's BOTs. This study fills the gap in knowledge regarding comparisons between PFIs and BOTs. It also gives recommendations for good practice in relation to Chinese BOT policy decision making, development and evaluation. Finally, the study hopes to give recommendations that enable the implementation of BOT model in Chinese motorway and water sectors to be more successful in the future.

El presente trabajo de investigación tiene como objetivo principal establecer mecanismos contractuales de cobertura jurídica ante los riesgos en los Project Finance. Es importante indicar, que en todo negocio sin importar su magnitud y objeto social existen distintos tipos de riesgos, los mismos que se deben identificar, aislar y mitigar su impacto dentro de la organización empresarial. En concordancia con lo anterior, el presente trabajo académico se divide en tres capítulos. En el primer capítulo, se desarrolla el marco teórico sobre los riesgos empresariales, tales como, tipos de riesgos empresariales y la administración de los mismos. Asimismo, nos centramos en analizar el Project Finance y sus características. En el segundo capítulo, se desarrolla y analiza la problemática en torno a los riesgos en los Project Finance, es decir, los problemas que comúnmente se presentan desde el estudio del proyecto, en la construcción y operación del mismo. En el tercer capítulo, desarrollamos las propuestas como mecanismos contractuales de cobertura jurídica intra y extra-empresa ante los riesgos en los Project Finance, en consecuencia, buscando identificar, aislar y mitigar los riesgos correspondientes. En virtud de los tres capítulos indicados líneas arriba, la presente tesis establece una estructura de referencia ordenada y coherente; aportando mayores luces de los temas a considerar en el desarrollo de un Project Finance. / The main objective of this research assignment is establishing contractual mechanisms for legal coverage against Finance Projects Risks. It is important to specify that in every business, regardless of its magnitude and corporate purpose, there are different types of risks, which must be identified, isolated, and their impact mitigated within the business organization. In keeping with the foregoing, this academic paper is divided into three chapters. In the first chapter, the theoretical framework on business risks is developed, such as the classification of business hazards and their proper management. Likewise, we focus on analyzing Finance Projects and its characteristics. In the second chapter, the problem around risks in Finance Projects is developed and analyzed, that is, the difficulties that commonly arise from the study of the project, in its construction and operation. In the third chapter, Approaches as contractual legal coverage mechanisms intra and extra-business are developed against risks in Finance Projects, consequently, seeking to identify, isolate and mitigate the corresponding risks. In accordance with the three chapters mentioned above, this thesis establishes an organized and coherent structure for further reference; by providing greater insight into the topics to be considered in the development of a Finance Project. / Tesis

This thesis disserts on real estate development projects. The main targets are analysis of current situation in the field of real estate development and suitable ways of financing such projects. As a result this text should bring a detailed insight into how real estate development projects are managed and evaluated.

Cette thèse propose une étude globale sur les contrats build-operate-transfer (BOT). Ils sont traités dans leurs aspects financiers, juridiques et contractuels. Les investissements dans les infrastructures publiques telles que les transports, l’eau, l’énergie constituent non seulement un outil de développement économique, mais aussi contribuent à l’amélioration des conditions de vie humaine. Mais, pour réaliser ces projets souvent de taille importante, le financement est un des principaux soucis des décideurs publics. En particulier, le Cambodge figure parmi les États à bas revenus. Les contraintes financières sont telles que l’État recourt de plus en plus au secteur privé, notamment par le biais des contrats BOT. Par cette technique, l’État peut cibler ses besoins spécifiques, tout en évitant le déficit budgétaire. En contrepartie, le secteur privé bénéficie d’un droit d’exploiter une infrastructure en cause pour une durée généralement longue pendant laquelle il rentabilise ses investissements.En se basant sur l’association des intérêts publics et privés, la mise en œuvre des contrats BOT nécessite un cadre juridique adéquate, sans lequel les intérêts publics pourraient être menacés, et cela pourrait être dissuasif pour la décision des investisseurs, notamment étrangers. / This thesis suggests a comprehensive study on the build-operate-transfer contracts (BOT). They are analysed in their financial, legal and contractual aspects.Investment in public infrastructure such as transport, water, energy is not only a tool for economic development, but also contributes to the improvement of human life’s conditions. However, to achieve these major projects, funding is a major concern of policy makers. In particular, Cambodia is among the States with low income. Financial constraints are such that the State resorts increasingly to the private sector, including through BOT contracts. By this technique, the State can target their specific needs, while avoiding the budget deficit. In return, the private sector has a right to operate the infrastructure in question for a period generally long during which it recovers its investments.Based on a combination of public and private interests, the implementation of BOT contracts requires a proper legal framework, without which public interests might be threatened, and that could be a deterrent for the decision of investors, especially foreigners.

Les Partenariats Publics Privés (PPPs) peuvent être un outil efficace pour optimiser et moderniser la commande publique dans un contexte où les besoins en investissement public ne cessent d’accroître. Les fréquences importantes de renégociation et les difficultés à estimer correctement les revenus futurs demeurent un défi majeur lors de la structuration financière des PPPs. Ce travail propose d’incorporer des clauses financières flexibles afin de remédier à ce problème. L’approche développée se base sur les théories d’options réelles et d’optimisation multi-objectif. Dans un premier temps, une méthodologie adéquate pour la gestion des risques est développée. La volatilité du projet est déterminée par le biais de la simulation de Monte Carlo et un déflateur stochastique est introduit afin de conduire les différentes valorisations d’options sous la probabilité historique. Ce travail développe dans un second temps, quatre formes de flexibilité qui permettent de réajuster l'équilibre financier du projet, si le revenu est insuffisant. Enfin une approche d’optimisation multi-objectif est développée afin de permettre de visualiser les différents compromis auxquels l’introduction de la flexibilité donne lieu. / Public private partnerships can be a solution to the dilemma of how to do more with less available funds that public entities are constantly financing in the last decades. If implemented properly, Public Private Partnerships can contribute to the modernization of public service provision and can constitute efficient vehicles for the delivery of optimal value for money. The high incidence of renegotiation as well as the difficulty of accurately predicting the future demand on the projects is a matter of concern when it comes to the financial structuring of Public Private Partnerships. This work proposes a real-option- based optimization framework to boost the financial viability of the projects. This is done by introducing flexible financial clauses. First, an adequate framework for risk management, where volatility is derived by Monte Carlo simulation and the valuation is made without switching to the risk neutral measure, is presented. Four families of flexible clauses are, afterwards, investigated. Such clauses are triggerred, if the revenue level of the projet is not sufficient to guarnatee its financiel viability. Finally, this work develops a multi-objective optimization approach in order to assess the different trade-offs that the introduction of flexibility leads to. The proposed optimization problem is solved via multi-objective evolutionary algorithms.