國內企業失敗的研究大都定位在財務危機的領域，且幾乎完全以股票上市 公司為研究對象。因受限於國內證券市場規模太小，研究樣本受到相當大 的限制，歷年來發生財務危機的案例甚少，所以財務預警系統只說明模式 本身區別成效，至於樣本外的測試，則付之闕如，無法了解此一模式對不 同時期的樣本是否仍有相同的區別能力，模式穩定性也就無從得知了。本 研究採用洪榮華（民82）的研究，擴大解釋危機的定義，以企業發生虧損 為一觀察事件，找尋足夠的樣本來建構財務危機預測模式，並從事樣本外 的預測，以驗證區別模式的穩定性。前人的研究結果顯示：大多數的預測 模式在樣本內的測試均有相當不錯的區別能力，樣本外的預測能力卻大幅 下降。Platt & Platt（1990）對於模式不穩定的原因歸納出兩個結論： 財務報表資料會隨時間的經過產生不穩定的現象、產業間財務資料的差異 ，經由產業相對財務比率的調整可以消除產業效果使得模式的區別能力趨 於穩定。Marquette（1980） 指出，良好的預測模型必須具有動態模型、 經得起時間考驗、以及不受時間約束等特性。也就是說，一個優良的財務 預警模型不會受到產業與時間因素的影響，可以適用在不同產業、時期， 即模式具有高度的穩定性。因此，基於上述理由本研究之目的有三：1.比 較以產業相對財務比率與公司財務比率所建立的預警模式對企業財務危機 的預測，何者有較佳的區別能力。2.驗證由原始樣本所建立區別模式對同 一時期的保留樣本，是否有顯著的區別能力，用以了解模式是否有同期的 適用性。3.驗證由原始樣本所建立區別模式對後期樣本，是否有顯著的預 測能力，用以了解模式是否有跨期的適用性。結論有四：1.公司財務比率 模型並非一穩定模型。模式本身具有區別能力，但卻不具有同期的適用性 與跨期的適用性。2.相對而言，產業相對財務比率模型為一穩定模型。模 式本身不僅具有區別能力，也同時具有跨期的適用性。3.就模式的區別能 力與預測能力而言，除危機前一年外，產業相對財務比率模型的區別效果 ，並未顯著優於公司財務比率模型。4.從本研究中發現，無論公司或產業 相對比率模型，對財務危機事件的預測，短期的預測能力高，長期則顯著 下降。

本文證明對∂－方程式在橢圓域中的解皆可用積分形式表現出來而且滿足均勻估計。在此估計中的常數可用橢圓的長短軸表達之。而且，我們也證明了此常數具有穩定性。 / In this thesis, we prove that, given any smooth closed (0,1)-form f near an ellipsoid Ω in Cⁿ, the Henkin's solution H_Ωf of the ∂-equation on Ω satisfies the uniform estimate 　　　　║H_Ωf║_∞≦C_Ω║f║_∞　　， 　　where is the Henkin's constant of Ω which can be explicitly estimated in terms of the maximum and minimum axes of the ellipsoid Ω. Also, a special version of the stability result of the Henkin's constant C_Ω is obtained.

本研究的目的有二： 1. 針對台灣前五百大製造業做研究，了解環境不確 定程度對公司使用資本預算方法精密程度的影響，及資本預算程序精細程 度和公司績效的關係。 2. 針對環境不確定程度、資本預算程序精密程度 、公司績效三者，進行假說檢定，以了解在何種環境不確定程度下，應採 用何種資本預算程序，以提高更多的績效，幫助經理人選擇合適的資本預 算方法。主要的研究方法有四： 1. 文獻探討，包括資本預算理論及國內 外的實證研究。 2. 問卷調查，以郵寄方式寄給國內前五百大製造業廠商 的財務部門。 3. 人員深度訪談，於問卷回收後，針對有寄回問卷的廠商 ，以隨機抽樣方式，抽取數家廠商，作深度的訪談，以確定回收問卷資料 的正確性。 4. 統計分析，主要以複迴歸模式來驗證假說。研究結果顯示 如下：（一）國內製造業者傾向於使用較不精細的資本預算程序。國內製 造業者除了在專案的事先規劃方面有較多的努力外，不論在管理科學工具 的使用、敏感性分析與電腦模擬技術及事後的稽核與檢討等重要的資本預 算程序，似乎沒有特別的重視與執行。再者，在專案的評估技術方面，還 是以會計報酬率法、回收期間法較受製造業者的歡迎。（二）上市公司比 非上市公司採用較精細的資本預算程序。而推估其原因可能是上市公司的 規模較大，有足夠的資源及評估專案來支持專責部門的成立與運作，而且 受到投資大者的監督，因而採用較精細的資本預算程序。（三）環境不確 定程度愈高的公司傾向於使用愈精細的資本預算程序。無論以經理人對環 境的主觀知覺或是資產報酬率的標準差來衡量環境的不確定性，公司所面 臨環境的不確定程度與公司所使用資本預算精細程度間存有顯著的正向關 係。（四）環境不確定性較高的公司採用愈精細的資本預算程序將可產生 愈高的公司績效。故對於環境不確定性較高的公司應採用較精細的資本預 算方法，而環境不確定性較低的公司則在成本效益的考慮下，只需作基本 的分析即可達到一定的績效水準。

在全球經濟化形式下，新資訊時代的變化帶來企業所面臨環境有更高的不確定性，市場變幻莫測，國際經濟環境動盪，企業的生存面臨著前所未有的挑戰，世界金融危機所帶來的困境、裁員、企業升級等危機，這些都迫使企業經營者不得不去思考如何應對環境快速變化之特性及採取必要的經營策略。企業在劇烈的環境變化中如何發揮自身的競爭優勢，並與其他企業合作互贏，來應對外部持續變化的不確定環境。 本研究由文獻資料分析出企業所面臨不確定環境中所應用的策略，確認不確定環境中可採用的策略方法，對競合策略、企業文化、企業創新與轉型、SWOT分析法及平衡計分卡進行歸納總結。 本文以膠帶行業一集團中的子公司為研究對象，對膠帶行業的產業結構進行分析，重點介紹大陸PVC市場並對膠帶行業未來的發展趨勢進行預測展望。再對企業目前所處的策略地域、經濟環境、企業環境、環保趨勢進行分析。運用價值網、SWOT分析法、平衡計分卡等分析方法對企業目前的運營狀況進行總結，研究企業現推行的經營策略及未來發展之路，並在最後得出企業實施策略後的成長效益進行總結。 / In the global economic times, the change of new information age cause the business has to faced greater uncertainties environment, the market is uncertain, international economic environment unrest, the enterprise is faced with unprecedented challenges and the world financial crisis brought difficulties, downsizing and enterprises upgraded etc. All these forces managers to think how to solve the problem of environmental rapid changes and take necessary measures . Enterprises how to play its own competitive advantage and cooperation with other enterprises in the severe changes environmental , how to fit the constantly changing environment. This research based on the documentation to analysis of strategy when enterprise in the unsure environment.This research to confirm the strategy could adopted in the unsure environment. Summarize the Co-opetition,corporate culture, innovation and change, swot analysis and balanced scorecard This thesis study with a group of the subsidiary in the tape industry.To analysis the industrial structure and focus on the plastic PVC market of China.The future development tendency of tape industry forecasted.Then analysis strategic areas of enterprises, business environment, corporate environment and the trend of environmental protection.Analysis the present state of the enterprise with the vuale net,SWOT anaylsis and balanced scorecard to research the present operate strategy and the direction of future development.At last,come to the benefits of growth after the enterprises implement strategy.

本文將探討當一販售耐久財的獨佔廠商面臨到商品產量限制以及市場上存在著個人需求不確定性時的最適訂價模式。此外本文也透過分析不同時期消費者所面臨的每期使用價格變化來說明當消費者存在個人需求不確定性時，廠商於兩期使用價格的設定會出現異於Coasian耐久財模型的兩期使用價格設定。當商品效用在第二期出現壞結果時低於一定標準時，廠商兩期使用價格訂價模式將出現第一期使用價格下降而第二期使用價格反而上升的現象，甚至可能出現第二期使用價格高於第一期使用價格的現象。而這與Coasian耐久財模型所呈現的兩期使用價格訂價模式是大不相同。 我們發現當廠商採取非價格承諾的訂價策略且廠商產能處於一定的數值時，廠商採取讓消費者面臨限量風險的訂價策略可獲得較Coasian耐久財模型更高的利潤。由此可見產能限制將可使廠商在採取非價格承諾的訂價策略下仍能透過讓消費者面臨限量的風險來保有獨佔力並且賺取較高利潤。 / This paper will investigate the best pricing strategy for durable goods monopolist with capacity constraint and individual demand uncertainty. We also introduce the concept of “per-period usage price” and illustrate the difference between traditional Coasian durable goods pricing strategy and ours. When the product utility turns out to be a bad outcome and its value is lower than the certain standard, first period’s per-period usage price will decrease while second period’s per-period usage price will increase simultaneously. This consequence is totally different from Coasian durable goods model. When monopolist use non-commitment pricing strategy and face capacity constraint, monopolist will set the price for exerting the risk of rationing to consumers which will help monopolist gain higher profit than Coasian durable goods model. This shows that capacity constraint will help monopolist keep monopoly power and gain higher profit.

本文探討匯率不確定性與台灣對中國大陸出口之關係，模型中參考Cushman (1986) 觀點加入第三國變數之效果。研究期間以1997年至2010年之季資料，同時考慮總合資料以及部門別資料，並以GARCH估計實質匯率波動性。第三國則利用出口近似度的計算選擇了前四大競爭國，分別為南韓，日本，馬來西亞及新加坡。此外，部門則以HS二碼分類選擇出口至中國大陸前四大之部門，包括機械與電子、精密儀器、橡膠與塑膠類產品及化學品。 本文檢定變數是否有單根。若有單根則進一步檢定這些變數是否存在共整合關係。在確定存在共整合關係後，利用完全修正最小平方法及誤差修正模型進行估計。本文實證結果顯示：匯率不確定性對出口量有負向之影響關係。就部門而言，本文探討的四個部門之結果也反映匯率不確定性對出口具有負向影響，但是以電子產品及塑膠橡膠類之影響最為顯著。 / This paper investigates the relationship between exchange rate volatility and Taiwan’s exports to Mainland China. In the empirical model, the third country effects suggested by Cushman (1986) are considered. GARCH model is employed to estimate real exchange rate volatility. Both aggregate and sectoral quarterly data covering 1997 to 2010 are used in our sample. The third countries are determined by export similarity. The top 4 countries with the highest degree of export similarity are chosen, including South Korea, Japan, Malaysia and Singapore. In addition, the top 4 Taiwan’s exporting sectors are examined respectively, including machinery and electronic equipment, precision equipment, rubber and plastics, chemicals industries. We first test for unit root of the variables used in the study, and then check the existence of co-integration between the variables with unit root. After confirming the existence of co-integration relationship, we use FMOLS (Fully Modified OLS) and VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) to estimate the coefficients. Our empirical results suggest that there is a significantly negative effect of exchange rate volatility on Taiwan’s total exports. They also indicate that there is a negative relationship between exchange rate volatility and Taiwan’s sectoral exports. Among the top 4 exporting sectors, exchange rate volatility tends to have higher impacts on the machinery and electronic industry as well as chemical industry.

本文建立模型，加入許多現實社會存在的現象，包括有限責任限制、景氣榮枯的不確定性以及將決策「階段化」，以探討廠商的產出與逃稅的行為。在逃漏稅行為方面，引入有限責任可能使廠商的逃稅決策呈現「兩極化」。在產出行為方面，未來景氣的不確定性將使利潤稅不具中立性。在無景氣考量下，不論有無有限責任，也不論決策是否具「階段性」，利潤稅對產出仍具中立性。當廠商必須面臨景氣的不確定性且為一風險趨避者的時候，在兩階段決策模型之下，不論有無有限責任的存在，利潤稅的中立性都不會成立。且若存在有限責任，其產量會比不存在有限責任的產量還多，在階段模型下，引入有限責任仍使廠商傾向採取風險較大的行為。

在此論文中，我們利用第一原理計算研究多鐵材料Cu3Mo2O9的磁性、電子態及多鐵性質。我們發現在此系統中，電子與電子間的庫倫排斥力必須被考慮，以致於導帶與價帶間能隙能夠被良好地描述。由於晶體結構所導致的幾何不穩定性，系統的磁結構尚未在實驗測量中被確定。在我們的理論計算當中得到的磁結構與Vilminot等研究人員根據實驗結果猜測出的非線性反鐵磁結構類似。交換作用與自旋軌道耦合間的爭競決定了電子自旋方向的傾斜。計算所得到的交換作用係數與實驗結果吻合良好。利用Berry’s phase計算，我們得到了系統自發電極化的理論值，其強度與實驗量測值在同一個數量級。然而，在我們計算中得到的電極化方向(平行於b軸)與實驗(平行於c軸)不符。此外，我們發現一磁結構之理論電極化方向與實驗相符，然而其磁結構之對稱性與實驗不符。目前，尚未有第一原理計算研究此氧化物，我們希望此論文能夠對同樣有興趣研究此材料的研究人員有所幫助。 / In this thesis, we used the ab initio method to study a multiferroic oxide Cu3Mo2O9. The correlations of electrons must be considered in this system so that a reasonable energy gap can be obtained. Due to the geometric frustration of magnetic structure caused by crystal structure, the ground state spin configuration in this system still has not been determined experimentally. We found some spin configurations similar to the non-collinear anti-ferromagnetic spins configuration suggested by Vilminot et al.. Competition between exchange interactions and spin-orbit coupling effect determines the canting of spins on Cu atoms. The calculated exchange parameters agree with the experimental results well. By using Berry phase calculations, we obtained the theoretical value of spontaneous electric polarization. The strength of polarization in our results is in the same order of results of experiments. However, the direction of electric polarization we found (along b-axis) is different from the experimental measurements (along c-axis). We have found a spin configuration that the theoretical electric polarization of the state agrees with the experimental results. However, the symmetry of the spin configuration does not satisfy the conditions suggested by results of the neutron diffraction experiment. And, spins on neighboring Cu2 and Cu3 do not form a singlet dimer. Since there still is no ab initio calculation studying this oxide, we hope that our studies can help those who are also interested in this material.

With the increase of the spans in the last decades, new concepts of projects and perceptions about bridges around the world have imposed the need of the development of new design techniques. Aerodynamic instabilities, which were not being of concern not long time ago, started to demand special care during all phases of the projects. Among them, coupledflutter instability has gained remarkable importance, due to its catastrophic consequences and impacts on the safety of the structure. Concerning coupled-flutter, aerodynamic derivatives have been regarded as fundamental components for the assessment of the stability of long-span bridges, resulting in that the focus during the proposition of the bridge deck geometry has been put essentially on the control of those empirical indices. The relationships between bridge deck geometric characteristics and the values assumed by those indices are recognized to be non-linear and straightforward approaches for their prompt evaluation are still not available. Because of that, trial and error experimental techniques based on wind tunnel tests have been regarded as main tools in the search of geometric configurations of bridge decks that satisfy the flutter stability requirements from the aerodynamic derivatives point of view. Since aerodynamic derivatives are resultant from the unsteady pressure characteristics developed along the bridge deck, it must be more rational to search for relationships between deck geometry and flutter stabilization from the unsteady pressure characteristics point of view. However, the complex geometric characteristics associated to modern longspan bridges may impose difficulties on the pressure measurements in wind tunnel tests, becoming counter-productive. So, the direct evaluation of the aerodynamic derivatives through alternative methods has been preferred in wind tunnel tests. In this research, the impacts of the deck geometric characteristics on the aerodynamic derivatives and, consequently, on flutter stabilization are assessed from the unsteady pressure characteristics point of view. Rectangular cross-sections arranged in single box and twobox configurations are used as base geometries and the influences of different geometric singularities (geometric modifications as leading edges, vertical plates and slots) on the unsteady pressure characteristics of those cylinders are systematized through the proposition of semi-empirical formulations. The knowledge generated herein may serve as a base for the development of a design framework based on the direct manipulation of the unsteady pressure characteristics of the deck through the use of geometric singularities, aiming the flutter stabilization by controlling indirectly the aerodynamic derivatives. Such a framework is to be used in substitution of some stages of wind tunnel test campaigns, and its feasibility is evaluated along the study. It was concluded that the relationships of geometric singularities with the unsteady pressure characteristics are much more linear and predictable than their relationships with the aerodynamic derivatives, opening a new methodology for the proposition of geometric improvements. Data regarding the geometries studied herein are also provided along the study, as reference for future development. / Kyoto University (京都大学) / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第14914号 / 工博第3141号 / 新制||工||1471(附属図書館) / 27352 / UT51-2009-M828 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科社会基盤工学専攻 / (主査)教授 白土 博通, 教授 杉浦 邦征, 教授 河井 宏允 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(エネルギー科学) / 甲第23539号 / エネ博第430号 / 新制||エネ||81(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院エネルギー科学研究科エネルギー応用科学専攻 / (主査)教授 白井 康之, 教授 土井 俊哉, 教授 下田 宏 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Energy Science / Kyoto University / DGAM