北京市為解決嚴重的道路堵塞問題，自2010年12月23日實施汽車限購政策。北京市於2010年10月傳出將要實施汽車限購政策，而本研究使用差中差方法估計消息傳出至開始實施日期間，政策消息對於汽車銷售量之影響。 研究中所使用之汽車銷售資料來源為中國「車輛登記管理所」中的「全中國登錄各月新增車輛」，以及「太平洋汽車網」的汽車詳細特性資料整理而成。以北京市為實驗組，其他非北京城市，與重慶市、天津市等為對照組，在控制了汽車特性以及加入了時間趨勢之後，可從實證結果得知，不論是以哪些城市當作對照組，在這段期間內，北京市的汽車銷售量皆有顯著的增加，與預測的結果相符。 在研究最後進一步使用穩定性檢驗，證明北京市汽車銷售量的突然增加是否真的為政策消息影響。最後結果亦與預期相符，證實北京市的汽車銷售量突然增加是由汽車限購政策消息所影響。 / To solve the serious road congestion problems, Beijing has implemented the restrictions on car ownership. In October, 2010, news started to spread that Beijing would bring the automobile purchase limit policy into practice. This study, using a method named “difference-in-difference”, estimated the policy’s impact on automobile sales volume in the period from when the news was launched to the day the policy was actually implemented. The data in this paper come from “Monthly Increase in Registered Vehicles Across China” of “Vehicle Registration and Management Bureau of China”, and the detailed characteristic data of vehicles from “Pacific Automobile Network”. We set Beijing as the experimental group, and the non-Beijing cities such as Chongqing and Tianjin as the control group. After controlling the characteristics of vehicles and adding time trend, we can learn from the experimental result that no matter which city is used as the control group, during the period, the vehicle sales volumes in Beijing increase significantly, which meets our expectation. In the last step of the research, stability test is used to prove whether the sudden increase of Beijing’s automobile sales volume is affected by the spread news. And the final result is also in accord with our expectation: the sudden increase in Beijing’s automobile sales volume is affected by the spread news of the automobile purchase limit policy.

本論文採用實地實證研究，以一家專業晶圓代工廠商為研究對象，詳細分析在晶圓代工的製造環境下，產品多樣性及製造彈性對生產品質、生產週期時間、設備生產力與生產成本之影響。不同於過去研究，以外部彈性(例如：產品組合彈性、新產品彈性等)為研究重心，本論文以內部彈性為研究範疇，涵蓋機器彈性與路徑彈性兩種彈性型態，據以彌補現存製造彈性文獻的缺口。 關於產品多樣性與製造彈性對生產績效與生產成本之直接影響，本論文首先以等候理論與整數規劃模型為基礎，加入實地環境特性的考量，推導研究假說與實證模型；繼而，蒐集來自個案公司6個月的詳細生產資料，包括兩類資料型態：機台水準(machine-level)與生產批量水準(lot-level)進行實證分析。綜合理論模型與實證分析結果，本論文發現：在晶圓代工的製造環境中，由於製程高度自動化之故，產品多樣性對生產績效的直接影響並不顯著，但因研發與工程實驗所產生的環境變異性則對生產績效具有顯著的負面影響；在製造彈性方面，吾人則發現路徑彈性不僅有助於生產週期時間的縮短，也對品質與成本績效具有顯著的正向影響，而機器彈性雖有助於設備生產力的提昇與生產成本的降低，但對生產品質則有顯著的負面影響，此外，本研究也發現：製造彈性與設備生產力、生產週期時間及生產成本之間存在非線性關係，並呈現報酬遞減的趨勢，隱含：極大化製造彈性並非最佳，有限的彈性水準即可達到最大的彈性利益。 考慮製造彈性的價值高低與環境不確定性密切相關，本研究進一步採用路徑分析檢視產品多樣性、製造彈性、環境不確定性與生產績效之間的關聯性，基於本研究以內部彈性為研究範疇，並以製造環境為研究客體，依據生產管理文獻，由製程時間變異性、到達時間變異性及產品需求變異性三項指標定義製造環境的不確定性。實證結果顯示：產品多樣性主要係透過環境不確定性間接影響生產績效，而機器彈性與路徑彈性則有助於調和內部不確定性對生產績效的負面影響，進而達成生產績效的提昇。本論文之分析結果隱含：過去管理會計研究認為產品多樣性對生產績效的影響主要來自於批量作業活動(batch-level activities)與產品支援活動(product-sustaining activities)的增加，而忽略產品多樣性對環境不確定性的影響，可能低估產品多樣性的攸關成本，尤其在一高利用率與高度動態的生產環境中，產品多樣性透過環境不確定性對生產績效的間接影響可能大於產品多樣性對生產績效的直接影響；另一方面，本研究指出：在一動態環境中，廠商可透過製造彈性的提昇，降低環境不確定性對生產績效的負面影響，但最適彈性水準的決定則須取決於製造彈性與其他生產績效衡量之間的函數關係。 / This thesis reports the results of a field empirical study examining the impact of product variety and manufacturing flexibility on production quality, cycle time, equipment productivity, and production cost within the context of semiconductor wafer fabrication facilities. To fill the gap in existing research, I attempt to study internal flexibility, rather than external flexibility (e.g., product flexibility, mix flexibility). Two types of internal flexibility are selected, which are machine flexibility and routing flexibility. Using both machine-level and lot-level production data from one dedicated wafer fabrication plant, this thesis examines the direct impact of product variety and manufacturing flexibility on production performance and production cost. Empirical results suggest that greater product variety does not have a significant impact on equipment productivity but does have a significant adverse impact on production quality. Moreover, I find support for the hypotheses that greater routing flexibility has a significant positive impact on quality, time, and cost performance. As for machine flexibility, it has a significant positive impact on equipment productivity and cost performance, but has a significant negative impact on production quality. Furthermore, I also find a non-linear relation between manufacturing flexibility and equipment productivity, cycle time, and production cost. This implies that maximizing the level of manufacturing flexibility is not necessarily optimal for firms. Limiting the flexibility level may actually have the greatest benefit. To further clarify the mechanisms through which variety and flexibility impacts performance, I move beyond the direct effects and investigate the linkage between product variety, manufacturing flexibility, environmental uncertainty and production performance. Based on the operations research, environmental uncertainty is operationally defined as the process time variation, inter-arrival time variation, and output variation. Results from path analysis indicate that product variety negatively affects production performance through environmental uncertainty. This finding stands in direct contrast to the general belief in management accounting research that greater product variety leads to an increase in the number of batch-level activities and product-sustaining activities, which thus increase the production cost. In other words, the reported cost of product variety may be underestimated, because we do not consider the impact of product variety on environmental uncertainty. The magnitude of the underestimation is especially greater in a highly congested and stochastic environment. Empirical results also show that machine flexibility and routing flexibility mitigate the adverse impact of environmental uncertainty on production performance.

本文建立一個小型開放經濟的內生成長模型，並且以貨幣進入生產函數的方式，將貨幣引入經濟體系。據此，我們分別探討勞動外生及勞動內生的狀況下，央行以釘住通貨膨脹率作為貨幣政策，民眾的信念是否可以造成景氣的波動，並探討央行採行未預料到的貨幣政策及預料到的貨幣政策會如何影響經濟體系相關變數的成長率。 　　根據本文的分析，我們發現在勞動外生的狀況下，通貨膨脹率與Tobin q值呈現負向關係，由此我們可以推論，提高通貨膨脹率目標將對經濟成長率造成負面的影響。當央行採取通貨膨脹率指標作為貨幣政策時，經濟體系呈現均衡的確定性，表示民眾的信念不會造成景氣的波動。若央行調整通貨膨脹率目標時，名目貨幣供給成長率和通貨膨脹率呈現不同比例的變動，且變動方向不確定，需端視實質餘額成長率下降的效果與通貨膨脹率調整的效果何者較大才可決定。在政策宣示的部分，宣告期間的長短僅影響經濟成長率、實質資本成長率及實質貨幣餘額成長率的跳動幅度，不影響動態調整路徑的形狀。 　　在勞動內生化的狀況下，通貨膨脹率增減不影響Tobin q值的變動，故提高通貨膨脹率目標不會影響經濟成長率。當央行採取通貨膨脹率指標作為貨幣政策，勞動需求線斜率大於勞動供給線斜率時，經濟體系呈現均衡的不確定性，表示民眾的信念可以造成景氣的波動在央行調整通貨膨脹率目標時，名目貨幣供給成長率和通貨膨脹率呈現同方向、同比例變動。最後，政策宣示部分，政策宣告期間的長短會造成經濟成長率、實質資本成長率及實質貨幣餘額成長率呈現不同的動態調整路徑。

在經濟發展的過程中，環境污染往往是其代價。石化產業在台灣經濟發展過程中扮演著火車頭的角色，帶動相關產業的勃興，但也帶來日益增加的環境污染與其社會爭議，成為政府部門必須面對的課題。在傳統的環境管制政策當中，科學評估被視為中立、理性客觀之分析技術，能夠有效處理環境問題的方法，其強調專業中立的形象，也與官僚理性所強調的中立性相似。因此這不僅是環境行政程序設計之核心，也是行政正當性的重要來源。但因著環境議題的複雜化、科學不確定性的增加，在行政程序當中，僅著重專家角色的行政程序，相信專家能夠帶來各樣問題的解答，不僅在程序上限制了多元知識類型的進入，既無法共同建構問題、也無法形成決策基礎的一部分；同時行政機關也此程序將決策責任移轉給專家；然而因著科學不確定性，使得專家必須在未知的情況下進行決策，因而使得決策內容會更加保守，讓環境爭議窄化成「如何收集更多資訊」等技術問題。行政機關原欲以專家作為決策正當性的來源，但狹隘的科學想像框架不僅使程序無法有效地處理環境爭議、無法回應來自多元參與者的提問，反而使得決策正當性更加受到嚴重的挑戰。 本研究以國光石化開發案的健康風險議題與六輕工安大火事件兩個案的環評過程為分析案例。在國光石化環評過程，健康風險議題是主要爭議焦點。當時有學者研究指出國光石化營運之後，將對台灣民眾的健康風險帶來重要影響，並指認環評書中所低估或錯估的部分。面對不同的科學研究爭議，環保署依其狹隘的科學框架，欲創制一套評判程序以解決爭議，卻適得其反。與此同時，六輕也在 2010年7 月傳出工安大火事件，地方陸續傳出有吳郭魚、文蛤、雛鴨等大量死亡的農業損失情事，使六輕營運後所造成的環境影響與健康風險問題，受到社會高度矚目。環保署因而要求台塑提出「環境影響調查報告書」進行審查。但環評專案小組因著科學不確定性而難以依科學論證作為基礎做出決策。最終則是以法院判決來作為決策的正當性來源。 本文透過多重資料來源的蒐集，包括田野訪談、環評專案小組會議、專家會議等相關之會議紀錄、相關事件的剪報資料，以及相關會議的參與觀察紀錄等。藉由兩個案的分析，探討行政程序建立在狹隘的科學框架之上時，為何產生行政決策的僵局，探討結構上的侷限與受到的正當性挑戰。並以論述應邁向具社會強健性的知識建構為基礎的開放行政程序，以強化決策正當性的根基。 / The scientific assessment in the traditional environment regulation policy is generally regarded as a rational technique. The common impression of scientific assessment is neutral and specialized, which is similar to the major principle of Bureaucracy, organization by functional specialty, defined by Max Weber. Therefore, the scientific assessment has been not only a foundation of environmental administration procedure, but also a resource of legitimacy. On the contrary, while the government just focuses on the scientific evidence in administrative procedure, there will be the political debates unable to resolve effectively. Because administrative procedure is unable to include multi-knowledge from different stakeholders, administration deal with environmental problems only limits to the sufficiency of scientific evidences. Consequently, administration transfers the responsibility about decision making to the experts committee. But experts committee could not make decision definitely, and the decision would be conservative, because of scientific uncertainty. As a result, the interpretation of environmental problems is narrowed to the proof of causal relationship between pollutants and environmental impacts. Since unknown causal relationships always exist, there will be ongoing arguments and disputes of environmental problems. Taking two examples of the environment impact assessment of a fire accident in the sixth naphtha cracking project in July, 2010, and the KuoKuang Petrochemical Project, 2011, the research analyze the hidden science framework and limitation behind the administrative procedure. The finding is that the technicalization of administration leads to government role shrinking and erodes the legitimacy of decision. In order to strengthen the foundation of legitimacy, administration should rebuild an open administrative procedure to foster socially robust knowledge.

科学研究費補助金 研究種目:基盤研究(A)(1) 課題番号:11304004 研究代表者:三井 斌友 研究期間:1999-2001年度

本文研究主題，係以歷史制度主義研究途徑來建構、實證和比較台灣與南韓政黨體系與民主鞏固的連結關係與影響程度。研究範圍設定在第三波民主化後的1986年至2012年。為達成預期研究目標，本文引用及修正Mainwaring建構的「政黨體系制度化」四種分析面向與Jones設計的附加測量指標，做為研究架構與比較工具，茲以比較兩國政黨體系制度化的高低程度，從而進行優劣排比，最後分析與評估對於兩國民主鞏固的影響程度及發展條件。 修正後的「政黨體系制度化」四個比較面向分別為：「政黨穩定性」、「政黨代表性」、「政黨正當性」及「政黨組織化」。透過四個比較面向進行實證測量和分析後，歸納後，得出以下幾項重要的研究發現：(一)台灣與南韓政黨體系制度化四個面向的表現各有優劣、互見利弊，但總體表現優於南韓，因此民主鞏固正面發展條件將比南韓更為有利。(二)台灣雖然政黨體系制度化總體表現略優於南韓，但兩國均未達成健全制度化政黨體系，故要有效提升民主鞏固的品質，仍有相當大的改善空間。(三)經過深入研究後，本文認為台灣及南韓政黨體系與民主鞏固存在因果關係，政黨體系制度化的程度也是影響民主鞏固發展的因素之一，但並非是影響民主鞏固因果關係的特定必然條件或單一直接因素。 經由上述三點研究發現，總結以下幾項研究建議：(一)政黨體系制度化的概念內涵分析面向與測量指標，在觀察、分析與比較新興民主國家政黨體系與民主鞏固的因果關係上，雖然有解釋效果與檢證作用，但運用或移植在台灣與南韓的配對比較案例上，受到區域差異化的影響，確定有部份的非相容性及侷限性，因此必須有所修正與調整。(二)要解決台灣及南韓政黨體系制度化不足或缺陷的問題，雖然考驗極大，問題甚多，但現階段建議可由制度面上進行政治改革，包括南韓總統任期可從現行的「五年單任制」修改為「四年兩任制」。台灣與南韓應儘速通過或修改「政黨法」，以健全政黨體系運作的規範。

絕大多數在台灣的企業屬於年輕的中小企業，他們所熟知的商業模式是生產代工，並無技術與市場的不確定性問題。如何從生產代工的商業模式跳躍到美國新創公司的知識經濟模式實在是一個對雙方都是很大的挑戰。由於雙方的不對稱性太大有必要讓其它人界入並彌補中間落差。開放式創新中需要技術仲介聯結買方與賣方。而技術仲介則是辦識(破壞式)創新機會的來源之一。在維興國際公司目前所專注的四個不同技術中，同時包括B2B及B2C的產品領域。但無論是B2B及B2C，市場拉力與技術推力在技術仲介的領域中均同樣必須受到重視。 本研究由相關文獻探討，推展出以(買方)目標工業的選擇與管理、(賣方)管理並降低市場的不確定性、技術仲介的需求缺口三構面的研究架構來探討技術仲介業在美國新創公司的技術仲介服務活動的關鍵因素與管理項目。本研究採用個案研究法深入訪談個案公司的高階主管以了解其新創過程的實務作為。由個案分析與研究發現得出研究結論如下： 結論一：成功的技術仲介業對技術賣方的選擇與管理應考慮(1)新創公司生態(2)新創公司的動態管理(3)新創公司的選擇(4)新創公司的管理。 結論二：成功的技術仲介業對技術買方的管理應考慮到(1)社會氛圍與使用者的認知(2)使用者的吸收能力(3)創新與使用(4)降低技術與市場的不確定性。 結論三：技術仲介的成功因素包括(1)技術仲介的加值能耐(2)技術仲介的承諾(3)專利/技術加值增加原供應商的仰賴(4)經營策略的創新與新事業開發。 結論四：技術仲介屬於知識管理的一環，在開放式創新中需要技術仲介聯結買方與賣方。而技術仲介則是辦識(破壞式)創新機會的來源之一。 結論五：台灣目前的技術服務業的主導者是以工研院技轉中心為主要的供需中心，輔以少數私人的智財買賣。 結論六：全世界都在鼓勵創新，國家的競爭力表現於創新與創業教育的養成。 / Most companies in Taiwan are belong to young SMEs, their business model is known for everybody and mainly the foundry model, there is no technology and market uncertainties. It is indeed a great challenge from the production foundry jumping into the knowledge based US startups. Since the dissymmetry from both sides are huge there exist a need for others to bridge the gap. Technology broker links buyer and seller in the area of open innovation. It is also one of the sources of innovation opportunities. WH International currently focused on four different technologies, including both B2B and B2C products. But whether it is B2B and B2C, market pull and technology push in the field of technology brokers are also to be taken seriously. From the related literatures survey, based on a technology transfer company, this study is to promote the technology sales (the seller) and management of technology uncertainty, to help (the seller) to manage and reduce market uncertainty, to meet market demands of the technology broker, and compose the three dimensions of framework: the seller, the buyer and the broker. This research adopts case study method to analyze the practice of the case company. The research results are as below. 1. The selection factors of a successful technology broker facing technology vendor should consider (1) ecosystem of start ups (2) the dynamic management of start ups (3) the choice of start ups (4) the management of start ups. 2. The management of technology buyers from a successful broker should take into consideration of(1) the user's cognitive and social atmosphere (2) the absorptive capacity of users (3) innovation and the diffusion (4) reduce uncertainty of market. 3. The successful factors for technology broker include (1) the value-added capability (2) the commitment to technology (3) patents / technology development to increase value-added services to suppliers (4) innovation of business strategy and new business development. 4. Technical brokering is a part of knowledge management. Technology broker links buyers and sellers in open innovation while it is also one of the sources of innovation opportunities. 5. Technology Transfer Center of the ITRI is the clear leader of technology services industry in Taiwan. There also existed some small private firms that handled intellectual property transactions. 6. Innovation is encouraged worldwide and national competition is reflected in the cultivation of innovation and entrepreneurship education.

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本文於確定提撥退休金制度下，探討基金經理人如何決定最適資產策略規避薪資所得及通貨膨脹之不確定風險，求得期末財富效用期望值極大化。本研究首先擴展Battocchio與Menoncin (2004)所建構之資產模型，我們不僅探討來自市場之風險，同時考量薪資所得、通貨膨脹與費用率之不確定性，研究其對最適資產配置行為的影響，建構隨機控制模型，以動態規劃方法求解Hamiltonian方程式，研究結果顯示，我們可利用五項共同基金分離定理來描述投資人之最適投資決策：短期市場基金、狀態變數避險基金、薪資所得避險基金、通貨膨脹避險基金與現金部位。數值結果顯示，股票持有部位中通貨膨脹避險基金佔有最大的成份，債券持有部位中通貨膨脹避險基金與狀態變數避險基金佔有最大的成份。 關鍵字：確定提撥、薪資的不確定性、通貨膨脹、隨機控制、動態規劃 / In this study, we investigate the portfolio selection problem in order to hedge the labor income and inflation uncertainties for defined contribution (DC) pension schemes. First, we extend the previous work of Battocchio and Menoncin (2004) that allowed the state variables (i.e., the risks from the financial market) and a set of stochastic processes to describe the inflation, labor income and expense uncertainties. A five-fund separation theorem is derived to characterize the optimal investment strategy for DC pension plans to hedge the labor income and the inflation risks. Second, by solving the Hamiltonian equation in the three-asset framework, we show that the optimal portfolio consists of five components: the myopic market portfolio, the hedge portfolio for the state variables, the hedge portfolio for the inflation risk, the hedge portfolio for the labor income uncertainty and the riskless asset. Then we explicitly solve the optimal portfolio problem. Finally, the numerical results indicate that the inflation hedge portfolio comprises the overwhelming proportion of stock holdings in the optimal portfolios. In addition, the inflation hedge portfolio and the state variable hedge portfolio constitute the overwhelming proportions of bond holdings. Keywords: defined contribution; salary uncertainty; inflation; stochastic control; dynamic programming.

本文分成兩個部分探討失業者的工作搜尋決策，第一部分利用遞延選擇權模型模擬市場景氣、預期工作機會出現機率、不確定性等因素對失業者工作搜尋決策的影響。第二部份利用2006年至2010年主計處的「人力資源調查」及「人力運用調查」資料從事實證分析。本文從實證分析中驗證以下的模擬結果：一、市場上的工資波動率與失業者的保留工資有正向關係，與移轉到就業的機率有負向關係。二、失業者對工作機會出現機率的預期較高時，擁有較高的保留工資，移轉到就業的機率較低。另外，學習速度較快的失業者在搜尋工作的過程中會以較快的速度下降保留工資，移轉到就業的機率較高。三、失業者對於工作搜尋報酬的不確定程度較高時，擁有較低的保留工資，移轉到就業的機率較高。 / This thesis consists of two parts. The first part is devoted to applying a real option approach to simulate the impacts of market prospect, expected offer arrival rate, and uncertainty on job search decisions. The second part provides an empirical illustration to validate the simulation results by using unemployment data from the 2006-2010 Taiwan Manpower Utilization Survey. The main findings of this thesis can be summarized as follows: (i) The wage volatility is related positively with the reservation wage of the unemployed, but inversely with the transition probability into employment. (ii) If a rising offer arrival rate is expected, the unemployed increase reservation wages and thus decrease transition probabilities. Furthermore, higher learning speed acts to intensively lower the reservation wage. (iii) When the degree of payoff uncertainty is higher, the unemployed decrease reservation wages and thus increase transition probabilities.