本文採用一階段隨機邊界分析方法，建立一多投入多產出之投入距離函數模型，衡量民國81~91年間台灣66家國際觀光旅館經營之相對技術效率，同時探討造成不效率之因素。並利用投入導向Malmquist生產力指數進一步分析國際觀光旅館產業生產力改變的原因與幅度。 整體而言，台灣國際觀光旅館產業之經營效率大致呈現緩慢進步之趨勢。造成整體產業生產力提升之原因，主要為業者對於投入產出配置使用之效率改善，而非生產技術進步。除了整體經濟景氣因素當然影響觀光產業之興衰外，個別國際觀光旅館業者之效率表現仍受到許多因素影響。諸如規模、國際化程度等內部原因，及旅館是否位處風景區、所在地縣市政府對觀光發展投注之資源預算和該地市場競爭程度等外在因素。 從政府政策方面來分析，若以整體國際觀光旅館產業經營效率來衡量我國觀光產業興衰，民國87年隔週休二日政策及民國90年實施之全面週休二日政策，的確有效帶動國人休閒旅遊之風潮，促進國內觀光發展。而各縣市政府觀光相關支出與國際觀光旅館生產力變動之關係，呈現正向相關，則表示政府支出增加有助於觀光產業蓬勃發展，並增加國際觀光旅館之經營效率。由於觀光產業生產具外部性，政府積極利用觀光產業以帶動經濟景氣繁榮成長的政策應當可行。 / In this paper a multi-output, multi-input and input oriented distance function is built by one-stage stochastic frontier approach (Battese and Coelli, 1995) to estimate the relative efficiency of the 66 international tourist hotels in Taiwan in 1992~2002 and to explore the determinants of technical efficiency. In addition, the Malmquist productivity index model is used to analyze the range and the causes of the productivity changed. The results reveal that managerial efficiency of international tourist hotel industry improves gradually. The productivity growth can be attributed to efficiency gains, but not the effects of technical progress. There are significant differences in efficiency due to difference not only in the macroeconomic situation, but also in many other individual factors, such as scale, joining an international chain, located in scenic area, local government other economic service expenditure and competitiveness. Analyzing the government policy, the implementations of two-day-off twice a month policy in 1998 and two-day-off per week policy in 2001 have fostered domestic traveling and expanded tourist hotel industry. The local government other economic service expenditure has positive effect on efficiency of international tourist hotels. That is to say, increasing in local government tourist expenditure will promote tourism market and improve efficiency of a hotel. Because of the production externality in tourism industry the idea that government tries to promote tourism to benefit economic development would be workable.

永續發展的概念現今已被運用於都市，其中，都市綠地在環境、生態、景觀、社會各層面之機能皆可提升都市永續性，在快速的都市化下，都市內綠地減少，土地利用變遷帶來之環境衝擊影響已自個體單元累積到全球。然而，過去研究中未有關注在綠地的變化趨勢與其他土地利用間的互動關係，以及在不同區域下的變化差異。因此，本研究採用GIS和景觀指數看在1995年至2006年間台北都會區綠地變遷趨勢，並分區探討土地利用間的互動關係，最後藉由二元羅吉斯迴歸分析綠地變化可能原因。 研究結果顯示，在1995年至2006年間，台北都會區整體發展是建地增加，林地也呈上升趨勢，而草地是土地利用轉移下被犧牲掉最多的土地，綠地轉移成其他土地利用情形以都會邊緣地區最嚴重。不同綠地型態在1995年至2006年間的變遷仍有差異，林地在整個台北都會區屬於景觀中的基質，主導性未受動搖，僅在都會中心減少並受破壞；而農地面積略微下降，呈破碎化發展，尤其以都會中心外圍區農地被破壞情形最明顯；草地面積亦下降，破碎化情形較農地更嚴重，在都會郊區、次中心之草地被破壞嚴重，草地各方面機能降低。透過二元羅吉斯迴歸分析發現自然環境、社會經濟與計畫環境皆影響台北都會區的綠地變遷。根據研究結果，建議未來政府於都市計畫上應將綠地空間納入考量，對於不同綠地型態應有不同管制措施，考量各區域綠地型態之差異性，以及自然環境、社會經濟和計畫環境對於綠地變遷的影響，以促進都市朝向永續發展。 / The concept of sustainable development has been applied in cities. Urban green space plays an important role in enhancing the sustainability of the city in regards to the environment, ecology, landscape and society aspects. Under rapid urbanization, green space has greatly declined in cities. Environmental impact resulting from land use change has grown from local to global proportions. However, researches did not pay attention to interactions between green spaces and other land-use change trends or different types of change in different areas. This research used GIS and landscape metrics to investigate the green space change trend and interactions among different land use types in the Taipei metropolitan area from 1995 to 2006. Furthermore, this research analyzed possible reasons that may have caused green space change through logistic regression. The results showed that, from 1995 to 2006, the built up area and the forest increased in Taipei Metropolitan Area; however, the grass decreased because of land use change. Urban fringe was the place that green space changed to other land-use most. There were differences of land use change for different types of green space. Forest was the matrix in the landscape of Taipei metropolitan area. It still kept the predominant role, only decreased and was destroyed in the center of metropolitan area. Farmland slightly decreased and became fragmented, especially in the periphery of the urban center. Grassland area decreased and became fragmented much more than farmland. In suburb and sub-center, grassland was destroyed seriously and became less functional. Through binary logistic regression, the study found that natural environment, socio-economic and government planning do have influence on green space changes in the Taipei metropolitan area. According to the result of the study, the recommendation was that government should take green space into consideration when doing urban planning. For different types of green space and different areas, the government needs to have different measures and needs to consider the impact factors of green space change in order to accelerate sustainable development in cities.

內政部消防署「104年消防白皮書」統計2005年至2014年建築物火災中，以獨立住宅火災最多，工廠火災次之，但工廠火災所造成的損失及使用消防人力、消防車輛數，卻超乎一般建築物甚多，也造成了許多警消及民眾之傷亡，因此有必要將其獨立於建築物火災之外，進行相關之資料分析與研討。 新北市轄區幅員廣闊，以人口數或工廠家數，都是全台灣最多，具有主要交通、消費市場及生產製造多重角色，且各行政區因歷史、環境或文化等因素，嚴然為另一個台灣縮影，與其他縣市相比也較具代表性，因此本研究使用2009至2015年新北市追蹤資料來作迴歸分析，探討消防概念因素(例如:工廠消防檢查次數等4項)、人口及區域概念因素(例如:大學以上教育人口比例等6項)與工廠火災指標【例如:火災發生件數、人員傷(亡)數量、火災件數/列管工廠數量比】關係。 在實證結果內，並扣除掉部分因素可能有內生性影響後，顯示「消防專用蓄水池」、「工廠消防檢查次數」及「老化指數」【(65歲以上年底人口數／0-14歲年底人口數)x100為代表】3項，有影響工廠火災指標。其中消防專用蓄水池與此地區有無發生工廠火災呈負相關，但與老化指數呈正相關。其次發現，消防安檢次數與工廠火災件數呈負相關。最後，工廠火災件數與工廠數量比，和老化指數呈正相關。 / According to the yearly fire report in Taiwan, factory fire has accounted for the highest proportion, and also cause lots of people and firefighters’ casualties. Therefore, it is necessary to separate factory fire from normal building fire cases, and use related data to analyze and discuss independently. New taipei city has a large territory, which including the largest population and highest number of factories in Taiwan, therefore, this study applied New Taipei city panel data from 2009 to 2015 to perform regression analysis,and explore the influence of concept fire factors, population, and conceptual regional factors on the index of factory fire. According to the research, after deducting the suspected endogenous problems, the result shows that fire water reservoir, factory fire safety inspection, and aging index 【(population age number of 65 years above / number of 0-14 years old )X100 】will have influence on factory fire index. Fire water reservoir have an inversely relationship with factory fire within the area, however, the aging index is proportional to factory fire. Second, the increasing number of fire safety inspection will reduce factory fire. finally , the number of factory fire is proportional to the number of factory and aging index.

從2015年統計數據來看，中國大陸涉農金融機構地方滲透性比重較高。03年中國大陸國務院下發《深化農村信用社改革試點方案》到現在為止雖然14年了，但是農村信用社還是存在很多問題。 所以研究農村信用社經營效率，對提高涉農金融機構質量和促進中國大陸農村金融市場的發展具有重大的意義。 本研究以數據包絡分析法為主，由於dea方法沒有考慮到誤差項的分配，因此加入了隨機前沿分析法。 本研究發現雖有個別農村信用社效率不足的情況存在，但福建地區整體農村信用社各項指標都很穩定。只是要針對個別經濟環境不景氣的地區重點研究，造成其效率低下的主要原因，改善其經營效率，也能提高整體指標。 從本研究對福建省地區農村信用社效率的比較影射到全國農村信用社。在國務院對農村金融改革後，雖農信社還存在部分問題，但也慢慢趨向穩定發展。可看出國務院的金融改革日漸成效。 / The statistical data of 2015 indicates that most of the Chinese local financial institutions are served as agriculture-related financial institutions.Although state council promulgated<The reform of rural credit cooperatives >in 2003, there are still lots of problems to be solved today. Therefore, the researches about the operating efficiency of rural credit cooperatives can help not only the improvement in the quality of agriculture-related financial institutions but also the development of rural financial market in China. This paper is mainly based on the data envelop analysis (DEA). Because the DEA doesn't consider the distribution of residuals, we also use the stochastic frontier analysis. In this paper, we find that the inefficiency problem still exists in some rural credit cooperatives, but all indexes of overall rural credit cooperatives in Fujian area are still stable. Moreover, we think that the improvement in the operating efficiency of individual rural credit cooperatives can also improve the overall indexes. Applying our analysis into whole districts of China, we find that the development becomes stable gradually, meaning the reform by state council works.

本研究旨在探討臺灣中型100 指數成分股調整事件之價量關係以及新聞報導效果。研究樣本分為純粹納入股、向下納入股、純粹剔除股以及向上剔除股，並分別以成份股調整之宣告日與執行日作為事件日，採用事件研究法，分析事件前後之價量變化，同時，進一步探討，宣告日至執行日期間，新聞報導對於成分股調整效果之影響。實證結果顯示，純粹納入(剔除)股於宣告日當天以及執行日前一天具有顯著的正(負)向異常報酬，且短期內皆有反轉的現象產生；向下納入(向上剔除)股，在宣告日與執行日前一交易日享有負(正)向異常報酬，且執行日後五日旋即反轉；此外，此四類個股於宣告日以及執行日附近，皆有異常週轉率生。在新聞效果部分，本研究將純粹納入(剔除)股分為有利多(空)新聞之組別以及無新聞之組別，探討其異常報酬現象。實證結果發現，有利多(空)新聞之純粹納入(剔除)股，相較於無新聞之純粹納入(剔除)股享有較高的正(負)向異常報酬率，顯見在成分股調整事件中，新聞報導亦會影響股價表現。 / This paper examines the effects of Taiwan mid-cap 100 index revision and news coverage on stock price and volume. Using event study method, the sample of this study is divided into four groups: pure additions, downward additions, pure deletions, upward deletions to analyze the changes of stock prices and volume on the announcement day and effective day. Furthermore, the effects of news coverage between announcement day and effective day are also investigated. Results of our analysis suggests that there are significantly positive (negative) abnormal returns (ARs) for pure additions (deletions) on announcement day and the day before effective day but transitory. For downward additions and upward deletions, there are significantly negative ARs for the former and significantly positive ARs for the latter. However, both ARs reverse within five days. Besides, there are abnormal volumes in the entire sample. As for the effects of news coverage, pure additions (deletions) are divided into two groups to examine the existence of ARs, one group with bullish (bearish) news and one group without. Results show that pure additions (deletions) with bullish (bearish) news have higher ARs than those without news coverage, supporting our hypothesis that in the event of index revision, news coverage do affect stock prices

過去實證研究多以時間序列模型搭配 GARCH 模型針對台灣股價指數進行分析。然而，Gourieroux and Zakoian(2017) 提出，當一時間序列具有泡沫現象時，noncausal Cauchy AR(1) process 是可能的優選模型。此外，Sarno and Taylor(1999) 的研究認為，台灣股價指數具有泡沫現象，故我們以 noncausal Cauchy AR(1) with Gaussian component 分析台灣股價指數，進而判斷其泡沫效果係來自 noncausal linear process 之 local explosive，並根據 noncausal Cauchy AR(1) 與 Gaussian component 之係數變動，捕捉泡沫效果之形成與來源。 / Most of the previous studies focused on analyzing Taiwan Stock Price Index using time series models with GARCH effects. However, Gourieroux and Zakoian (2017) have demonstrated that noncausal Cauchy AR(1) process may be a possible model in which the bubbles are observed. Besides, according to the studies of Sarno and Taylor (1991), some bubbles exactly existed in Taiwan Stock Price Index before 1990. Accordingly, this study aims at investigating the possible bubbles in Taiwan Stock Price Index from 2005 to 2015 by employing noncausal Cauchy AR(1) with Gaussian component method. As a result, we find out he bubbles which modeled by the noncausal linear process are local explosive. And based on the changes of the coefficients from noncausal Cauchy AR(1) and Gaussian component, this study successfully captures the form of bubbles.

本研究考慮重要且對台股大盤指數走勢有連動影響的因素，主要納入對台股有領頭作用的美國三大股市，那斯達克(NASDAQ)指數、道瓊工業(Dow Jones)指數、標準普爾500(S&P500)指數;其他對台股緊密連動效果的國際股票市場，香港恆生指數、上海證券綜合指數、深圳證券綜合指數、日經225指數;以及納入左右國際經濟表現的國際原油價格走勢，美國西德州原油、中東杜拜原油和歐洲北海布蘭特原油;在宏觀經濟因素方面則考量失業率、消費者物價指數、匯率、無風險利率、美國製造業重要指標的存貨/銷貨比率、影響貨幣數量甚鉅的M1B;在技術分析方面則納入多種重要的指標，心理線 (PSY) 指標、相對強弱(RSI) 指標、威廉(WMS%R) 指標、未成熟隨機(RSV) 指標、K-D隨機指標、移動平均線(MA)、乖離率(BIAS)、包寧傑%b和包寧傑帶狀寬度(BandWidth%);所有考量因素共計35項，因為納入重要因子比較多，所以完備性較高。 本研究先採用的贏者全拿(Winner-Take-All) 競爭學習策略的自組織映射網路(Self-Organizing Feature Maps, SOM)，藉由將相似資料歸屬到已身的神經元萃取出關聯分類且以計算距離來衡量神經元的離散特徵，對於探索大量且高維度的非線性複雜特徵俱有優良的因素相依性投射效果，將有利於提高預測模式精準度。在線性擬合部分則結合倒傳遞(Back-Propagation, BP)、Elman反饋式和徑向基底函數類網路(Radial-Basis-Function Network, RBF)模式為指數預測輸出，並對台股加權指數隔日收盤指數進行預測和評量。而在傳統的Elman反饋式網路只在隱藏層存在反饋機制，本研究則在輸入層和隱藏層皆建立反饋機制，將儲存在輸入層和隱藏層的過去時間資訊回饋給網路未來參考。在徑向基底函數網路方面，一般選取中心聚類點採用隨機選取方式，若能有效降低中心點個數，可降低網路複雜度，本研究導入垂直最小平方法以求取誤差最小的方式強化非監督式學習選取中心點的能力，以達到網路快速收斂，提昇網路學習品質。 研究資料為台股指數交易收盤價，日期自2001/1/2，至2011/10/31共2676筆資料。訓練資料自2001/1/2至2009/12/31，共2223筆;實證測試資料自2010/1/4至2011/10/31，計453個日數。主要評估指標採用平均相對誤差(AMRE)和平均絕對誤差 (AAE)。在考慮因子較多的狀況下，實證結果顯示，在先透過SOM進行因子聚類分析之後，預測因子被分成四個組別，分別再透過BP、Elman recurrent和RBF方法進行線性擬合，平均表現方面，以RBF模式下的四個群組因子表現最佳，其中RBF模式之下的群組4，其AMRE可達到0.63%，最差的AMRE則是群組1，約為1.05%;而Elman recurrent模式下的四組群組因子之ARME則介於1.01%和1.47%之間;其中預測效果表現最差則是BP模式的預測結果。顯示RBF具有絕佳的股價預測能力。最後，在未來研究建議可以運用本文獻所探討之其他數種類神經網路模式進行股價預測。 / In this study, we considering the impact factors for TWSE index tendency, mainly aimed at the three major American stock markets, NASDAQ index, Dow Jones index, S&P 500, which leading the Taiwan stock market trend; the other international stock markets, such as the Hong Kong Hang-Seng Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, Shenzhen Stock Exchange Composite Index, NIKKEI 225 index, which have close relationship with Taiwan stock market; we also adopt the international oil price trend, such as the West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil in American, the Dubai crude oil in Middle Eastern, North Sea Brent crude oil in European, which affects international economic performance widely; On the side of macroeconomic factors, we considering the Unemployed rate, Consumer Price Index, exchange rate, riskless rate, the Inventory to Sales ratio which it is important index of American manufacturing industry, and the M1b factor which did greatly affect to currency amounts; In the part of Technical Analysis index, we adopt several important indices, such as the Psychology Line Index (PSY), Relative Strength Index (RSI), the Wechsler Memory Scale—Revised Index (WMS%R), Row Stochastic Value Index (RSV), K-D Stochastics Index, Moving Average Line (MA), BIAS, Bollinger %b (%b), Bollinger Band Width (Band Width%);All factors total of 35 which we have considered the important factor is numerous, so the integrity is high. In this study, at first we adopt the Self-Organizing Feature Maps Network which based on the Winner-Take-All competition learning strategy, Similar information by the attribution to the body of the neuron has been extracted related categories and to calculate the distance to measure the discrete characteristics of neurons, it has excellent projection effect by exploring large and complex high-dimensional non-linear characteristics for all the dependency factors , would help to improve the accuracy of prediction models, would be able to help to improve the accuracy of prediction models. The part of the curve fitting combine with the back-propagation (Back-Propagation, BP), Elman recurrent model and radial basis function network (Radial-Basis-Function Network, RBF) model for the index prediction outputs, forecast and assessment the next close price of Taiwan stocks weighted index. In the traditional Elman recurrent network exists only one feedback mechanism in the hidden layer, in this study in the input and hidden layer feedback mechanisms are established, the previous information will be stored in the input and hidden layer and will be back to the network for future reference. In the radial basis function network, the general method is to selecting cluster center points by random selection, if we have the effectively way to reduce the number of the center points, which can reduces network complexity, in this study introduce the Orthogonal Least Squares method in order to obtain the smallest way to strengthen unsupervised learning center points selecting ability, in order to achieve convergence of the network fast, and improve network learning quality. Research data for the Trading close price of Taiwan Stock Index, the date since January 2, 2001 until September 30, 2011, total data number of 2656. since January 2, 2001 to December 31, 2009 a total number of 2223 trading close price as training data; empirical testing data, from January 4, 2010 to September 30, 2011, a total number of 433. The primary evaluation criteria adopt the Average Mean Relative Error (AMRE) and the Average Absolute Error (AAE). In the condition for consider more factors, the empirical results show that, by first through SOM for factor clustering analysis, the prediction factors were divided into four categories and then through BP, Elman recurrent and RBF methods for curve fitting, at the average performance , the four group factors of the RBF models get the best performance, the group 4 of the RBF model, the AMRE can reach 0.63%, the worst AMRE is group 1, about 1.05%; and the four groups of Elman recurrent model of ARME is between 1.01% and 1.47%; the worst prediction model is BP method. RBF has shown excellent predictive ability for stocks index. Finally, the proposal can be used in future studies of the literatures that we have explore several other methods of neural network model for stock trend forecasting.

本研究利用美國芝加哥商品交易所針對 18 個城市發行之冷氣指數／暖氣指數衍生性商品與相對應之日均溫進行分析與評價。研究成果與貢獻如下：一、延伸 Alaton, Djehince, and Stillberg (2002) 模型，引入跳躍風險、隨機波動度、波動跳躍等因子，提出新模型以捕捉更多溫度指數之特徵。二、針對不同模型，分別利用最大概似法、期望最大演算法、粒子濾波演算法等進行參數估計。實證結果顯示新模型具有較好之配適能力。三、利用 Esscher 轉換將真實機率測度轉換至風險中立機率測度，並進一步利用　Feynman-Kac 方程式與傅立葉轉換求出溫度模型之機率分配。四、推導冷氣指數／暖氣指數期貨之半封閉評價公式，而冷氣指數／暖氣指數期貨之選擇權不存在封閉評價公式，則利用蒙地卡羅模擬進行評價。五、無論樣本內與樣本外之定價誤差，考慮隨機波動度型態之模型對於溫度衍生性商品皆具有較好之評價績效。六、實證指出溫度市場之市場風險價格為負，顯示投資人承受較高之溫度風險時會要求較高之風險溢酬。本研究可給予受溫度風險影響之產業，針對衍生性商品之評價與模型參數估計上提供較為精準、客觀與較有效率之工具。 / This study uses the daily average temperature index (DAT) and market price of the CDD/HDD derivatives for 18 cities from the CME group. There are some contributions in this study: (i) we extend the Alaton, Djehince, and Stillberg (2002)'s framework by introducing the jump risk, the stochastic volatility, and the jump in volatility. (ii) The model parameters are estimated by the MLE, the EM algorithm, and the PF algorithm. And, the complex model exists the better goodness-of-fit for the path of the temperature index. (iii) We employ the Esscher transform to change the probability measure and derive the probability density function of each model by the Feynman-Kac formula and the Fourier transform. (iv) The semi-closed form of the CDD/HDD futures pricing formula is derived, and we use the Monte-Carlo simulation to value the CDD/HDD futures options due to no closed-form solution. (v) Whatever in-sample and out-of-sample pricing performance, the type of the stochastic volatility performs the better fitting for the temperature derivatives. (vi) The market price of risk differs to zero significantly (most are negative), so the investors require the positive weather risk premium for the derivatives. The results in this study can provide the guide of fitting model and pricing derivatives to the weather-linked institutions in the future.

近年來海峽兩岸利率持續走低，已經對壽險公司之財務產生負面影響，故銷售固定利率保險商品之壽險業者，其資金運用報酬與業務成本間之利差損現象日益擴增，為避免財務負擔日增而影響其清償能力，市場趨勢乃轉向能將風險大部分轉移給保單持有人並讓其分享大部分投資利得之投資型保險商品。本文就海峽兩岸投資型保險商品，從法規架構、監理體系、商品種類內容、市場行銷等方面加以詳細比較分析，並以1988-1994年英國銷售投資型保險商品所發生之退休金不當銷售弊案(mis-selling scandal)為借鏡，進而歸納出所面臨之各種問題，再針對此等問題提出可能解決之道，作為兩岸發展投資型保險之參考。 關鍵字：投資型保險、投資連結保險、變額保險、指數連結保險、指數連結年金、萬能壽險、變額萬能保險、分紅保險、利率風險、不當銷售、英國退休金不當銷售弊案、保險監理、保險法沿革。 / With the continued decline in interest rates having an adverse impact on Taiwan and Mainland life insurance companies' balance sheets, the insurance companies that sell the traditional guaranteed products have experienced the increasing interest loss resulted from the gap of their investment returns and operation costs. To avoid the companies from insolvency crisis arising out of the increasing financial burden, there is a trend, recently in both Taiwan and Mainland markets, that the insurance business focus has been averted from the traditional products toward investment-linked products that transfer most risk to policyholders and enable them to share in most investment gains. This paper compares the investment-linked insurance between Taiwan and Mainland markets in the viewpoints of the legal structure, regulation systems, variety of products and marketing of investment -linked products. This paper also analyses the famous U.K. mis-selling scandal in 1988-1994, and tries to make this scandal into a valuable lesson to both markets. After listing the issues and problems which are encountered by the insurance companies, the suggestions for resolving such issues and problems are submitted as the conclusion of this paper. Key Words: Investment-linked insurance, Variable insurance, Equity Index Insurance, Equity Index Annuity, Universal life insurance, Variable universal insurance, With-profit insurance. Risk of interest rate, Mis-selling, U.K. mis-selling scandal, Insurance regulation. History of insurance law

本論文的研究目的是在於分析在現階段的大環境下，即在利率低迷且經濟不景氣中，發行銀行如何針對投資者的需求，設計出可以吸引投資者前來投資的結構性新金融商品並從中獲取合理利潤。 本文以避險及保本兩大方向為出發點，選取了三個個案分析，分別是荷蘭銀行推出的『荷銀110%保證回報金價連動債券』、中國信託商業銀行推出的『中國信託商業銀行三個月期美元理財專案』、以及中國信託商業銀行推出的『中國信託商業銀行六個月期歐元理財專案』。 個案分析方式著重於在不同的利率下，計算出發行銀行發行商品之利潤、投資者之投資收益率、以及商品之避險部位分析，並針對商品之設計提出建議。