本論文運用Box-Jenkins 隨機時間序列模式與Winters 趨勢季節平滑模式，進行廿一 縣市液化石油氣需求預測，依模式之配合度、穩定度及預測能力予以評估上述兩種模 式之優缺點，并探討各模式於運用時之限制，以供企業界與學者運用此兩種模式之參 考。 本論文共壹冊，約為五萬餘字，分為八章，茲分述如下： 第一章：闡述研究之動機目的與方法。第二章；介紹Box-Jenkins 模型之理論與建立 方法。第三章：介紹指數平滑法之發展、種類及模式之建立方法。第四章：探討良好 預測模式所應具備之條件，以為評估之標準。第五章：運用Box-Jenkins 模式進行液 化石油氣需求模式之進立與預測。第六章：運用Winters 趨勢季節平滑模式從事液化 石油氣需求預測。第七章：比較前述兩章預測之結果。第八章：結論與建議。

第一章 為緒論，首先陳述地價指數之基本概念，其次闡述指數理論之發展，再次 說明選定台北市、桃園市、新店鎮為研究範圍，及整體研究程序之概要。 第二章 為地價指數的價值分析。大凡理論的提出，皆需確定其價值所在，因而闡 明地價指數的功能所在、編制目的及其用途，乃為必要。 第三章 為當前編制地價指數面臨的基本問題。由於地價指數的編制方法，猶屬初 創階段，舉凡分類標準、查價基準、查價對象、查價技術、查價方式、指 數公式、權數選擇及編佈程序等項目，概需詳盡討論，以期紮下良好根基 ，益臻其健全性。 第四章 為各國編制不動產價格指數方法之舉要。編制地價指數，需參酌各國編制 之先例，引為借鏡。惟各國編制不動產價格指數的方法，不易求得，僅得 例舉美、日編制方法之概要，並敘明我國中位數法的編制過程、及其試編 結果，並作動態分析。 第五章 為各國編制不動產價格指數方法的評價。由指數公式的選擇、調查方法等 項加以比較分析，並對中位數法的效益予以評估。 第六章 結論。綜合前節各項所述，進一步提出編制地價指數應注意的問題。

本論文推導具有特殊條款的高階經理人員工認股權的評價模型與避險比率，依序為績效評估型員工認股權、指數型員工認股權、重設型員工認股權。相對於一般的員工認股權，本論文探討的員工認股權給予發行公司更多的調整彈性，也提供高階經理人與股東更多的保障。接著更進一步推導信用風險下的評價模型，並且比較無信用風險與信用風險下評價模型之間的差異。本論文完成前尚無任何學術研究於信用風險下高階經理人員工認股權的評價模型與避險比率，這是一個重要的貢獻。

本研究欲了解有無集團企業背景對本國產險公司經營效率之影響，並透過本國有無集團企業背景產險公司之效率比較，求證關於代理理論之審慎管理假說及費用偏好假說是否成立。本研究運用資料包絡分析法(Data envelopment Analysis, DEA)及cross-frontier analysis評估民國81至90年，17家本國產險公司具集團背景及無集團背景各年度效率情況。另外，採用多元迴歸分析討論產險公司不同經營特性對經營效率的影響。本文亦利用Malmquist生產力指數分析具集團背景及無集團背景產險公司十年來生產力的變動。 　　本研究之實證研究結果如下： 一、於技術效率，具集團背景及無集團背景產險公司無技術效率差異，表示不論有無集團背景，皆有各自的經營技術優勢，符合審慎管理假說。於成本效率，發現81至85年時具集團背景產險公司之成本結構於生產無集團背景產險公司的產出相對較具成本效率，符合費用偏好假說；但86至90年時，則無集團背景產險公司之成本結構對於自己的產出較具成本效率，不符合費用偏好假說。 二、以多元迴歸分析於81至85年、86至90年，影響無集團背景產險公司效率之因素。本文發現於86至90年，當無集團背景產險公司總資產越小、再保比例越高，其以自己的成本結構進行生產，越顯著較以具集團背景產險公司的成本結構進行生產來得具成本效率。 三、二類產險公司於民國81至90年間生產力皆呈現衰退，且具集團背景產險公司衰退情況較嚴重。二類產險公司生產力衰退主因皆為生產技術的衰退；此外，具集團企業背景產險公司十年來的技術效率有衰退的趨勢，而無集團背景產險公司之技術效率則持續進步。若綜合前面成本效率的結果，則十年來具集團背景產險公司平均效率表現沒有進步跡象；而無集團背景產險公司有改善其效率。 / The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of“group”background on the property-liability insurance industry in Taiwan. We test the managerial discretion hypothesis and the expense preference hypothesis by comparing the efficiency of the group and independent property-liability insurers. Using the property-liability insurance industry in Taiwan from 1992-2001 as our sample, we use DEA and cross-frontier analysis, and adapt multiple regression analysis to examine the variables which affect the efficiency performance in the property insurance company. We also measure the productivity changes of the group firms and independent firms over ten years. The empirical results are summarized as follow. First, we find that the technical efficiency results are consistent with the managerial discretion hypothesis, in that there is no difference in the technical efficiency between the group firms and independent firms. The results of cost efficiency between 1992 and 1996 show that the group frontier dominates the independent frontier for independent outputs, supporting the expense preference hypothesis. However, the results of cost efficiency between 1997 and 2001 no more support the expense preference hypothesis in that the independent frontier dominates the group frontier for independent outputs. Second, we find that the independent firms tend to have a comparative advantage over the group firms in the independent cost frontier when the independent firm’s size is smaller or when its reinsurance proportion is higher. Finally, the results of the Malmquist productivity analysis show that the productivity of group firms declines in 1992-2001, and the decay is due to their technical efficiency decreases. Conversely, the productivity of the independent firm improves.

由於電腦革命的成功，在短暫的幾年之間，更加速了經濟的成長，而金融的投資分析，是社會經濟發展的原動力，因此研究這方向的財務數學也相對的提高了專家、學者的研究熱潮。就以股票、匯率市場來說，如果能比别人早一步掌握行情走勢，就能獲得較高的利潤。但影響股價、匯率波動的因素很多，尤其是在複雜多變及不確定性的資訊下。因此；如何進行更精確的趨勢分析與預測，是本文研究的主題。由於，傳統的期望值是二元的邏輯思考(非1即0)，比較無法符合多變與不確定的財金問題，因此本文考慮以模糊統計方法，以模糊期望值的方法來作趨勢分析與預測，期望能對複雜多變的財金體系提共一套更精確合理的投資分析方法，可以提供投資者更多的訊息，做出明確的抉擇。最後；以我國集中市場加權股票指數、台幣對美元匯率及台積電股價為例，做一實例上的詳細探討。 / Based on computer revolutionary coming off, economics grows fast in previous several years, then the investment analyze of finance is the impetus of development of society economic. Therefore, many experts and scholars are interested in the research of financial mathematics. Taking stock market and exchange market for example, if you can predict the future trend of market, you obtain more profit. However, there are many factors that act on stock prices and exchange rate. Especially, the market information is complicated and incomplete. How to go along accurate trend analysis and divination is the important point of the text research. Because traditional expectation value is dibasic logic thought (either 1 or 0), that can’t conform to the highly changeable and uncertain finance problems. For this reason, in this research we propose an integrated procedure for fuzzy expectation value modeling and forecasting through fuzzy relation equations. We apply this technique to construct a fuzzy expectation value model for Taiwan Weighted Stock Index and exchange rate and forecast future trend. We strongly believe that this model will be profound of meaning in forecasting future trend of financial market.

為了提升競爭優勢與生產能力，並進而達到永續經營的目的，突破現況、持續改善產品品質、降低產品成本與服務成本則成為提昇競爭力的重要因素之一，因此產品在設計開發階段就必需要考量品質與成本的問題。 本研究以電源轉換器為對象。該電源轉換器目前已設計完成且已通過美國UL安規認證，並已在國內量產銷售，但因為該電源轉換器的溫升及其變異很大，仍然會導致該產品的壽命過短，因此降低電源轉換器的溫升及其變異是一急需解決的問題。 透過了田口與實驗設計的方法規劃及進行實驗並收集數據。並利用十二種分析方法(包括：田口方法、主成份分析、主成份＋倒傳遞類神經網路＋基因演算法、主成份灰關聯＋倒傳遞類神經網路＋基因演算法、指數型理想函數＋倒傳遞類神經網路＋基因演算法、MSE方法、MSE方法＋倒傳遞類神經網路＋基因演算法、SUM方法、SUM方法＋倒傳遞類神經網路＋基因演算法、重要零件加總法、重要零件加總法＋倒傳遞類神經網路＋基因演算法)對實驗數據進行分析，以決定最適因子水準組合。 由改善後的確認實驗得到：雖然平均溫升下降的程度不大，然而大部份量測點的溫升標準差都顯著變小了。因此本研究在降低該電源轉換器溫升變異的效果十分顯著。對於電源轉換器的生產者而言，品質提升就是提升銷售量的保證，因此本研究所得到的最適因子水準組合，雖然產品在成本上有些微的增加，但品質改善後之產品將可為生產者帶來更多有形與無形之利益。

金融商品的價值是否可以預測呢？由避險基金的操作績效以及華爾街著名分析師的事前看法和事後印證來看，答案幾乎是肯定的。不過，大多數的投資人卻依然無法獲利。站在學術的角度上來看，[Fama ,1970]的效率市場假說告訴我們，一個有效率的市場是無法獲得超額報酬的，這論點也經常被學者用來檢驗市場是否具有效率性，研究的結果也都是證明市場是無效率的。因此，我們希望藉由發展專家對於股價指數的漲跌推論規則之本體論來提升金融商品領域之知識管理的廣度與深度。 本體論(Ontology)是知識管理的表現方式之一，[Gruber ,1993]闡述本體論是一種詞彙的規格，用來呈現我們想要分享的領域；可以定義類別、關係、功能、與其他物件。由於本體論提供的是一個領域嚴謹豐富的理論因此相當適合使用在知識工程的領域上[劉紅閣、鄭麗萍與張少方 ,2005]。另外，本體論的建構過程和物件導向設計非常的類似[Chandrasekaran, Josephson & Benjamins ,1999]，因此，在研究的過程中，我們將以物件導向設計來輔助本體論的分析。最後，使用Protégé 3.0這套相當普及化的本體論編輯工具作為系統實做的工具。 / Is the value of Financial banking products predicable? In view of the operating performance of hedge fund and the preliminary insights and the evidences afterward from the well-known analyst of Wall Street, the answer is almost positive. Nevertheless, the majority of investors still can not make profits from it. Based on the Academic points, (Fama, 1970) the theory of hypothesis if efficient market showed us that we can not make extra profits from the efficient market. And it is often used to examine whether the market is of efficiency. And the result of research also proved that the market is inefficient. Therefore, it is desired that we enhance the width and deepness of knowledge management of financial banking products with the Ontology of the inferred up-and-down principal of stock index developed by the efforts of experts. Ontology is one of the ways presenting knowledge management. (Gruber, 1993) explains that the ontology is the specifications of terminology which presents the domains we would like to share with. Classes, Relations, functions and other objects could be defined by that. Ontology provide us with the theory of strictness and richness of domains, therefore, it is very suitably utilized in the domains of knowledge engineering[劉紅閣、鄭麗萍與張少方 ,2005]. Besides, the construction process of Ontology is very similar to the object-oriented design. [Chandrasekaran, Josephson & Benjamins ,1999] Based on this, we will use the object-oriented design to assist the analysis of Ontology through our research . At last, Protégé 3.0 which is the very popular editing tool of Ontology is used as a tool for the system implementation.

本文以摩根台指與台灣50指數成分股調整的股價效應做比較，兩者對於成分股調整的宣告及生效是否存在異常報酬，而異常報酬的不同是否與其指數編制方式有關。實證結果發現摩根台指新增股具有 顯著正報酬、剔除股具有顯著負報酬，且在宣告日二十天後價格呈現反轉，符合價格壓力假說。而台灣50指數新增股異常報酬則不顯著異於零，兩種指數的新增股在宣告成份股調整後皆有超額成交量、流動性持續增加。再者摩根台指的宣告效果比台灣50指數強，且透過加權的方式較能表現出指數成份股調整所帶來的現貨價格影響。 / The study examines both the price and volume effect of stock additions or deletions on both the MSCI Taiwan index and Taiwan50 index. We document significant abnormal returns of stock additions and deletions for the MSCI Taiwan Index both on the announced period or on the effective period. In addition, we also find a significant abnormal return of stock deletions for Taiwan 50 Index either announced period or the effective period. While we do not find any significant abnormal return of stock additions. Further more, both the announced date effect and the effective date effect for MSCI Taiwan Index are stronger than those for Taiwan 50 Index. Our results support the price pressure hypothesis.

波浪理論是由 Nalph Nelson Elliott在1938年所發表的價格趨勢分析工具，它也是近年來技術分析界運用相當廣泛的一種工具。艾略特認為：「不管是股票或是任何商品價格的波動，都與大自然潮汐一樣，具有一種相當程度的規律性。」。其實這個原理和產業周期循環也很接近，運用於越多人參與的市場會越準確，因為人性也是一種大自然的現象。 台灣加權股價指數是以民國55年為基期100來編製，本文雖由民國55年談起，但由於資料繁多，故集中採用民國76年1月至民國95年12月的二十年資料做為資料收集期間，以艾略特波浪理論的原則找出在台灣股市的應用規則，進而推演出未來的走勢。 / Wave Principle is a trend analysis method that was developed by Nalph Elliott in 1938. Today, the principle is one of the most widely adopted methods for technical analysis in finance. Elliott discovered that the ever-changing path of stock market prices reveals a structural design that in turn reflects a basic harmony found in nature. In fact this principle is also similar to industry cycle. When this principle is utilized in a market, especially when a lot of people participate in this market, the principle will be rather accurate, because humanity is also a natural phenomenon. The Taiwan Weighted Stock Index was at 100 in 1966, the base period. Although the discussion in this paper starts from 1966, due to the abundance of the data, I decide to focus my research on the recent twenty years. The purpose of this study is to identify the usability of Eilliott’s Wave Principle by applying it in Taiwan’s stock market and to figure out the trend for the future.

本研究探討費率自由化政策與台灣產物保險市場經營效益，利用實證資料評估產物保險公司之整體經營績效及核保利潤。本研究自保險年鑑、台灣經濟新報資料庫及保險市場重要指標，選取1998年至2006年間財務及業務資訊來進行實證分析。 依Klein (1999)分類，台灣產物保險市場屬於類似獨占性競爭市場，產物保險公司高度競爭。依實證結果顯示，實施費率自由化政策，公司自留費用率持續緩慢增加，自留綜合成本率亦呈現上升趨勢。多數產物保險公司之實際核保利潤仍大於依Fairley (1979)計算之均衡核保利潤。 實證結果摘要如下： (1) 類似獨占性競爭市場：赫芬多指數皆小於0.1，市場呈現競爭狀態。1996年後，火險及車險之簽單保費成長率似乎每四、五年會呈現負成長。另外，1998-2003年費用率與公司規模呈現顯著負相關(p=0.01)。2004-2006年，此負相關並不顯著(p=0.1)，顯示大公司漸不具有成本優勢，即產險市場之進入障礙有減少之趨勢。 (2) 成本費用支出增加：除2001年外，1998至2006年之產物保險公司自留綜合成本率介於91.09% 和 93.49%。2006年之自留綜合成本率為93.49%。2006年之產物保險公司費用率上升至40.51% 且損失率下降至52.97%。 (3) 核保利潤呈現正值：依Fairley(1979)計算之2006年預期均衡核保利潤。20家產物保險公司，17家實際核保利潤大於預期均衡核保利潤。 / This paper provides an empirical study of rate deregulation plan and profit performance in Taiwan property-liability insurance market. The data used in this study are from Insurance Year Book, Taiwan Economic Journal Data Bank, and Important Indexes of Insurance Industry (Taiwan) during the period from 1998 to 2006. Based on the classification by Klein (1999), the market structure of Taiwan property-liability insurance industry is similar to monopolistic competitive market and the property-liability insurers are engaged in intense competition. The results of this study show that the expense ratios of insurers rise slightly from year to year and the combined ratios also follow a trend of increase. The actual underwriting profits of most property-liability insurers are larger than the expected numbers estimated by using the methodology in Fairley (1979). The empirical results are as follows: (1) The market structure is similar to monopolistic competitive market for that the Herfindahl indexes are all below 0.1. The growth ratios of written premium on fire insurance and automobile insurance seem to become negative every four or five years after 1996. Besides, the negative correlation between expense ratio and the scale of economics in insurance market from 1998 to 2003 was significant at the p = 0.01 level. However, this correlation from 2004 to 2006 was not significant at the p = 0.1 level. It seems that larger insurers do not have significant cost advantages over smaller insurers in the recent years, namely the entry barriers decline. (2) The expenses and costs keep increasing. Except 2001, the combined ratios ranged from 91.09% in 1998 to 93.49% in 2006. The expense ratio increased to 40.51% while the net loss ratio decreased to 52.97% in 2006. (3) The underwriting profits of most insurers are positive. The expected underwriting profits by using the methodology in Fairley (1979) is less than the actual ones in 2006. Among the 20 property-liability insurers, the actual underwriting profits of 17 insurers were larger than their expected underwriting profits.