台灣信用卡市場自1982年全面開放以來，信用卡以驚人的速度不斷成長。但隨著信用卡簽帳金額、循環信用餘額的提高，以及2002年南韓信用卡泡沫危機的前車之鑑，信用卡逾期放款的風險控制也逐漸為政府相關主管機關所注意。藉由2003年7月至2004年10月，共16個月的月資料以及43間發卡機構，作追蹤資料的隨機效果模型分析，並採三種方向作為研究的角度，顯示較低逾放比的銀行，也許其風險管理及內部控制較為嚴謹，因此其信用卡部門之逾放情形也會較少。益本比則可以反映獲利能力較佳之銀行其放款品質較佳，因此可以推估其信用卡逾期放款的情形相對而言較不嚴重。持卡人循環信用餘額使用指數則反映出貸款者的還款能力。卡均循環信用餘額則是一項較為特殊的觀點。結果顯示台灣確發生了以卡養卡的情形，以致於在短期內，卡均循環信用餘額的提高反而會造成信用卡逾放比率的改善。最後，景氣動向指標成長率則反映出在景氣好的時候，持卡人比較有意願及能力償還其信用債款，因此持卡人逾期繳款的情形較不會發生。

台灣經濟屬於淺碟型經濟，且受限於缺乏自然資源，所以資本的形成相當的不容易。為求經濟的發展，資本的形成，尤其是固定投資的累積相當的重要。而資本形成的數種財源中，以僑外直接投資對國際收支與通貨膨脹的壓力影響較小，並能引進新生產技術及經營管理知識，從而促進產業的持續成長與企業管理現代化理想的實現。台灣之所以能成為經濟上的亞洲四小龍之一，這當中經濟成長的背後資金來源，僑外商的直接投資是不可或缺的。近年來，台灣的名目利率不斷下跌，甚至實質利率為負的情況下，投資動能卻仍顯不足。為瞭解構成廠商投資意願的決定因素，故以對投資具相當敏感度的僑外商為研究的主要對象，所以本文的主要目的即是探討僑外直接投資台灣的決定因素。 本研究使用1995年至2004年間的時間數列月資料，以普通最小平方迴歸模型，估計僑外資、僑資、外資、製造業及服務業等五種模型的直接投資決定因素。結果顯示在僑外資及外資的模型中，其顯著變數有工資、利率、世界競爭力及政黨輪替。僑資模型的顯著因素有犯罪率及政黨輪替。製造業模型的顯著變數有工資、匯率及利率。而服務業模型則有工資、利率及研究發展經費為顯著變項。另各模型時間變數方面，僑外資、外資及服務業等模型的第6年虛擬變數具顯著效果。在月虛擬變數上，投資正相關的月份僑外資為6、7月及10至12月；僑資為7、8兩月；外資於5月後各月；製造業則為3月及5月後各月；服務業則為7、11及12月。又僑資及服務業兩模型中，4月均為負相關。至於經濟成長率、每人國內生產毛額及政黨比率等不顯著變項，表示均非僑外商投資所關注的因素。 / Taiwan’s saucer-shallow economic scale and scarce natural resources make capital formation very difficult. Nevertheless, capital formation, especially accumulation of fixed investment, is essential to economic development. Among various sources of capital formation, foreign direct investment imposes least pressure on the balance of payments and inflation, introduces innovative technology and management skills, and hence contributes most significantly to sustainable industrial development and the realization of business management ideals. Taiwan ranks among the four newly-industrialized Asian tigers. Among the funding sources that have promoted Taiwan’s economic growth over the years, direct investment from overseas Chinese and foreigners plays an indispensable part. In recent years, however, even though nominal interest rates have continuously fallen, at times even to the level of negative real interest rates, investment momentum still appeared weakened. Based on this observation, this study tries to understand what drives decisions to invest in Taiwan by focusing on overseas Chinese and foreign investors who are highly investment sensitive. The main purpose of the study is to discuss the determinants of overseas Chinese and foreign direct investment in Taiwan. This study applies the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) Regression model to analyze the monthly time-series data during the period of 1995-2004. Determinants of direct investment are examined in five groups, i.e. overseas Chinese & foreign investment, overseas Chinese investment, foreign investment, the manufacturing sector, and the services sector. The result shows that wages, interest rates, world competitiveness, and the rotation of ruling parties are the most important factors for overseas Chinese & foreign investment, and foreign investment. Overseas Chinese investment is significantly affected by the crime rate and the rotation of ruling parties. For the manufacturing sector, wages, exchange rates and interest rates are important variables. Wages, interest rates and R&D spending significantly affect investment in the services sector. In terms of the time variables in each group, the sixth year dummy variable has a significant effect on overseas Chinese & foreign investment, foreign investment, and the services sector. With regard to monthly dummy variables, positively correlated to investment are June, July, and October to December for overseas Chinese & foreign investment; July and August for overseas Chinese investment; May to December for foreign investment; March, and May to December for the manufacturing sector; and July, November, and December for the services sector. In addition, April shows a negative correlation for both overseas Chinese investment and the services sector. Variables with insignificant effects, including economic growth rates, per capita GDP, and the congressional seats of political parties, are not among the concerns of overseas Chinese and foreign investors.

本文主要探討影響外資企業進入中國大陸外資企業獲利變動之因素，分析企業在大陸投資經營環境改變（1993年與1996年間），企業的獲利變動是否會受影響，進一步比較在不同外資來源與不同投資型態下，座落不同地區別與投資不同產業別其獲利變動及其決定因素有何不同 結果顯示，投資環境變遷對外商投資有影響，首先，大陸投資環境逐年改善，有利外商企業進行投資，但是仍須注意大陸內部的不穩定因素，如政治社會問題，不能只單純考慮經濟投資環境。且大陸外資政策逐漸進入調整階段，朝向與產業發展相結合的方向調整，廠商投資更應注意政策發展；其次，在影響外商企業獲利變動之決定因素方面，實證結果顯示，企業在設廠時的投資規模如果較大，顯然與賺取的利潤變動有正向相關之關係；另一方面，員工人數增加，獲利亦會增加。 就企業營運方面而言，根據實證結果顯示資金當地取得比例與企業的獲利變動呈現負相關，外商企業自大陸貸款取得資金比重愈高，其獲利反而愈不利，另外對外資企業之機器進口比例提高，對獲利變動有正面影響，亦即企業進口更多機器設備，對獲利是有幫助。另外筆者發現，員工報酬等級的變動，對獲利變動呈現明顯正相關。就企業成立時間長短對獲利變動影響而言，筆者研究發現，在大陸的外資企業，愈後進者愈能充分表現在搭便車效果，對企業獲利明顯有利。 / The goals of the thesis are researching the following： (i) Impact of investment environment and foreign investment policy changes in mainland China in recent years on foreign firms in mainland China； (ii) Determinant of Profitability change to foreign enterprises in Mainland China； (iii) Analysis determinant of different country firms, different industry firms, different entry modes and different locations of foreign firms in mainland China。 The project concludes the following： 1. The effort of liberalization and internationalization of Mainland China in recent years attracts the inflow of multinationals into Mainland China; with the entry into WTO the inflow will be further encouraged. 2. Foreign investment profitability affected by policies and environment of Mainland China, firms should be more cautious in evaluating their investments in Mainland China. 3. The scales and workers become larger and more, profits of firm will increase 4. More local finance loan rate decrease profits of firms, because cost of loan increase after 1993 5. Obtainment and keeping ability workers show well profits of firms and more efficient equipments do it, too. 6. Early entry firm will not get more profit than latter entry firms; profitability depends on competence of firms.

中國在經濟發展的過程中，由於面臨著資金不足和技術落後的問題，以致於在1978年確立改革開放政策後，企圖透過外商直接投資來加速工業化及促進產業升級。然而一直到1992年鄧小平南巡，宣布將堅持中國的改革開放政策後，外商直接投資才開始大量流入中國。本文的研究目的即是鎖定外商直接投資開始大量進入中國後，影響世界各國對中國直接投資的因素。 本文利用24個國家（地區）在1993年至2003年期間的資料，採固定效果模型研究外商對中國直接投資的原因為何。結果顯示在1993到1996年間，顯著的決定因素為相對國內生產毛額、相對每人國內生產毛額，以及相對工資率。而在1997到2003年間，顯著的變項轉變為相對國內生產毛額、相對借貸成本、以及相對國家風險。此外，兩階段的外商直接投資都有增加的趨勢，但1997到2003年間增加的速度有趨緩的現象。另由固定效果的分析中得知，地理距離與對中國的自發性直接投資具有負相關的關係，此可由引力模型和地理距離影響文化的擴散和交流解釋之。最後，為了降低實證模型發生錯誤的機會，並使研究過程更為嚴謹，於是對本文模型和估計結果使用更多的方法加以檢定。 / Since 1978, China has adopted the so-called “open door policy”, attracting foreign direct investment(FDI) has become one of the most important methods to facilitate its economic growth. However, foreign countries didn’t invest large amount toward China until Deng Xiaoping’s southern trip in 1992. The purpose of this study is thus to investigate the determinants of FDI from different foreign countries in China after foreign countries started to invest tremendous amount toward China. This study adopts fixed-effect model to investigate the determinants of FDI in China with 24 countries’ (regions’) data during the period of 1993-2003. The result shows relative GDP, relative GDP per capita, and relative wage are the most important factor in attracting FDI in China during 1993-1996. However, during 1997- 2003, the important factors change into relative GDP, relative borrowing cost, and relative country risk. In addition, the FDI at two periods both have a increasing trend, but the increasing speed during 1997-2003 isn’t increase so quickly as 1993-1996. Furthermore, from the analysis of the fixed effect knows the geographical distance has a negative relationship to FDI in China, and it can be explained by gravity equation and geographical distance influences the diffusion and exchange of culture. Finally, in order to reduce the mistakes occurred in positive models and enable the study more rigorous, then uses more methods to test the models and the result.

1978年中國大陸在經濟上採取改革開放政策後，中國大陸克服資金不足、技術落後等問題，經濟快速成長、人民生活水準和人均生產總值皆大幅提升。但中國大陸內部卻面臨各地區經濟發展的程度有極大落差的困局。為此，中國大陸政府提出多項區域發展政策，期能撫平區域發展不均衡的差距，「西部大開發」即為其中之一，希望能藉此一舉改善西部目前發展上的弱勢。但是西部地區要脫離落後狀態朝向發展所需要之條件究竟為何?西部大開發政策所切入之角度是否正中西部所需?本文將由影響外商投資西部的決定性因素，來評估西部大開發政策之成效。透過1997至2005年外商對中國西部地區投資的追蹤資料，搭配固定效果模型的估計，分析影響外商至西部進行投資的趨勢及決定性因素為何，並以估計之結果檢視「西部大開發」政策是否切中西部發展所需，確實改善西部投資環境。 根據實證結果顯示，吸引外商至西部進行投資的決定性因素有四，分別為相對工資率、基礎建設、礦產資源，以及外資開放程度。其他的變數如市場大小、勞動力素質、國營企業比重、中央移轉性支付比例以及優惠政策等，皆未有顯著影響。 關鍵詞：西部大開發、外來直接投資、固定效果模型、決定因素 分類號：B23、C33、F21、R58 / Since China has adopted the so-called “open door policy” in 1978, it has overcame its shortage of economic investment and lagged technology by accepting foreign direct investment（FDI） and the “east-tilted” policy. Two decades later, while China enjoys its high economic growth rate, it has to solve the dilemma of keeping economy growing or balancing the regional disparity. Hence the China government has proposed the “Western Region Development” policy to facilitate the slow-growing economy in west China. Since FDI has played an important role in China economical development, the purpose of this study is to investigate the foreign direct investment in West China, and the flowing issue is using the results to evaluate the efficiency of Western Region Development policy, to see if the policy meet the need of western regional development. This study has based upon the panel data for western region during the period of 1997-2005 and fixed-effect model to investigate the determinants of FDI in West China. The result shows relative wage rate, infrastructure, mine resource, and openness to the rest of the world. Finally, in order to reduce the mistakes occurred in models and enable the study more rigorous, uses more methods to test the models and the result. Keywords: Western Region Development, Fixed-Effect Model, Foreign Direct Investment, Determinants JEL Classification: B23、C33、F21、R58

台灣利率自由化的演進過程，是採取循序漸進的方式，先由貨幣市場實施，再逐步推及到存放款市場。自1989年利率自由化及1991年政府開放新商業銀行設立以來，台灣銀行業的競爭就進入了白熱化的春秋戰國時代，金融版圖重新調整，產業的競爭有增無減。這期間經過兩次的金融改革，體質較弱的銀行紛紛走向讓售及被併購的命運，尤其是2008年發生金融海嘯，對銀行業的經營更是一大挑戰。觀察近年來銀行業的經營困境，存放款利差持續走低，多數銀行採取價格競爭策略，企業授信市場採用低利削價的手段，造成銀行業獲利率降低，危及銀行健全經營體質。所以本研究從文獻回顧探討影響放款利率定價決定因素，從樣本銀行實務授信政策及放款定價辦法探討影響放款利率定價決定因素，並利用樣本資料從實證模型的估計及檢驗來推估假設變數與企業貸款利率定價之間的具體關係及影響方向與程度，最後將實證結果提供予銀行管理當局擬定授信政策及建立完善放款利率定價模型之參考。 / From money market to deposit and loan markets, the development of interest rate liberalization in Taiwan has been in gradual progress. Since interest-rate liberalization in the year of 1989 and governmental approval on the establishment of new commercial banks in 1991, the competition among banks in Taiwan has become severe. Market shares among banks have thus changed. During the period, the financial market experienced two banking reforms. Banks with relatively weak financial nature have been forced to be sold or merged. Moreover, the financial turmoil in the year of 2008 made the business environment of banking industry even more challengeable. Running business in banking has been more difficult in recent years. Interest rate spread for banks has been narrowing. Most banks have adopted price competition strategies. Such price-cutting policy in commercial loan market has resulted in the deterioration of bank management in the industry. This research reviews study-papers focusing on the factors affecting commercial loan interest rate pricing, using bank A as a sample to review its actual operation of credit policy and loan pricing means. In addition, by adopting technique of empirical model measurement and statistical test on the sample data, the concrete correlation and extent of influence between hypothetical variables and pricing on commercial loan interest rate are also estimated. The aim of this paper is to provide empirical tested results to the banking authorities for their reference when designing fine credit policies and commercial loan pricing model.

近十年來，台灣出現薪資成長停滯的現象，實質薪資更是停留在十年前的水準，究竟是什麼原因使得台灣薪資無法向上提升，是本研究所要討論的重點。 本文利用台灣1980年1月到2011年12月共384筆月資料，以普通最小平方法(Ordinary Least Square, OLS)進行迴歸估計，找出顯著影響台灣薪資成長的因素，實證結果發現消費者物價、名目放款利率、失業率、就業人數、人力派遣業員工人數、平均勞工保險投保薪資站平均經常性薪資比重、基本工資、非經常性薪資以及對外投資金額對於台灣的薪資有顯著的影響。本文並根據過去的數據資料，發現進十年來因為物價上漲吃掉名目薪資上漲的幅度，使得實質薪資倒退到十年前的水準；另一方面，由於失業率對於薪資是顯著負向的影響，而自1997亞洲金融風暴開始，台灣失業率節節攀升，因此近十年來相對較高的失業率是使得薪資無法成長的重要原因。本研究結果也發現，雇主對於勞工保險的沉重負擔、實質基本工資停滯並未給予勞工實質的保障，以及名目放款利率大幅下跌、非經常性薪資及對外投資金額快速增加、人力派遣業快速成長等因素，亦是使得台灣近十年來薪資都不漲的原因。 除了針對全國的薪資影響因素做討論之外，本文也針對工業部門、製造業、服務業部門以及金融保險業的薪資影響因素進行實證分析。實證結果發現，消費者物價指數、失業率、平均勞工保險投保薪資佔平均經常性薪資比重等變數對於工業部門、製造業、服務業部門以及金融保險業的薪資都有顯著影響。