我國所得稅係採年度申報自繳制度，具有大量、反覆之特性，因此稅捐稽徵機關在所得稅申報期間之前，即已進行各種課稅資訊之蒐集活動，除藉此定出各類所得、費用標準，以作為核課依據外，嗣人民申報其年度所得稅後，即將蒐集之課稅資料與申報資料互相勾稽，作為選定事後審查對象及釐正申報資料與核定所得額之依據；當年度之所得稅申報資料及核定情形復又成為次一年度之課稅基本資料來源及比較對象，二者環環相扣，互為因果關係，形成一個獨立體系，而得以單獨作為研究之對象。次為掌握稅務調查制度之全貌，必須對其作全面性之審視及檢討，故本文採用源自日本之行政法學研究方法「行政過程論」從實現稅務行政目的之過程，歸納、整理所得稅事前課稅資訊蒐集活動及事後審查階段之調查手段、程序、屬性、相關人之法律關係、調查效果及其救濟途徑，以宏觀角度檢視現行法制下之稅務調查制度，藉以發現問題並試圖提出解決方法或修法建議。 / Taiwan adopts an annual self-reporting system for income tax return. Such reporting system involves massive and recurrent information. Hence tax authorities would collect all kinds of tax information before the annual income tax reporting period and use such information to set out the norms for different types of income and expenses as basis for taxation. Upon receiving the annual income tax returns filed by taxpayers, tax officers would check the filed data against the collected tax information, and based on the results, determine the taxpayers to be audited and the assessed income tax. The information contained in an annual income tax return and the results of assessment become the source of basic tax information and comparison for following year’s return. Hence income tax returns of two successive years are interrelated and can form discrete units for research purpose. In order to grasp the full view of the tax investigation system, comprehensive examination of the system is necessary. Thus this study employs the methodology of the “theory of administrative process” originated in Japan to examine the tax investigation system under the prevailing law in a macroscopic manner, from the process of tax administration, pre-filing tax information collection, the means, procedure and attributes of post-filing investigation, legal relationship of the parties concerned, to the effect of investigation and remedies available. This study attempts to discover problems, and based on which, propose solutions or suggestions for regulatory amendment.

本研究旨在探討老年人寂寞及其相關因素模式。主要目的為：一、編擬老年人寂寞量表，以測量老年人寂寞。二、瞭解我國老年人的寂寞現況並比較不同背景變項之老年人在寂寞上的差異情形。三、建立人格特質（神經質與外向性）、自覺健康狀況、社會關係數量、社會供應（情緒共同感、價值肯定、社會共同感）與寂寞（情緒性寂寞與社會性寂寞）之間的結構方程模式，以瞭解變項之間的路徑關係。 為逹以上目的，本研究採用問卷調查法，以702位老年人為研究對象，施以「人格特質量表」、「社會關係量表」、「自覺健康狀況量表」，修訂之「社會供應量表」、自編之「老年人寂寞量表」等量表，並以描述性統計分析、t考驗、單因子變異數分析、結構方程模式進行統計分析。研究發現：1.老年人寂寞量表經因素分析，可區分為情緒性寂寞與社會性寂寞。2.我國老年人的寂寞程度為中度偏低，社會性寂寞顯著高於情緒性寂寞。3.不同年齡、性別、婚姻狀況、參與社團與居住狀況的老年人在寂寞上有顯著差異。4.去除解釋力低的自覺健康狀況，人格特質、社會關係數量、社會供應與寂寞所建構之結構方程模式的適配度獲得支持，可以有效解釋相關變項間的關聯性。 最後本研究根據研究結果進行討論，並對諮商實務及未來研究提出建議。 / The purpose of this study was to develop a 「Loneliness Scale for the Elderly」 and to explore loneliness and related factors in the elderly. Moreover, this study created the structural equation model of personality traits（neuroticis / extraversion）、quantity of social relationship、self-perceived health status、social provision（emotional togetherness / reassurance of worth / social togetherness）and loneliness（emotional loneliness / social loneliness）in the elderly, which served the purpose of illustrating the linear structural relationships among the relevant variables. The participants in this study were 702 elderly people in Taiwan. Research instruments included Personality Traits Scale、Quantity of Social Relationship Scale、Self-perceived Health Status Scale、Social Provision Scale, and Loneliness Scale for the Elderly. The collected data was analyzed by descriptive statistics, t-test, ANOVA, and structural equation model. The findings were as follows: 1. Two factors were extracted from the Loneliness Scale for the Elderly by factor analysis, they were emotional loneliness and social loneliness. 2. The level of loneliness among elderly was moderate and social loneliness is significantly higher than emotional loneliness. 3. There were significant differences in loneliness among different age groups, gender, marital status, group participations, and living arrangements. 4. The structural equation model of personality traits、quantity of social relationship、social provision and loneliness in the elderly could explain the relationship among main variables. Based on these findings, some suggestions were made for practice and future research.

中文摘要 有限離散條件分配相容性問題可依相容性檢驗、唯一性檢驗以及找出所有的聯合機率分配三層次來討論。目前的文獻資料有幾種研究方法，本文僅分析、比較其中的比值矩陣法和圖形法。 二維中，我們發現簡化二分圖的分支與IBD矩陣中的對角塊狀矩陣有密切的對應關係。在檢驗相容性時，圖形法只需檢驗簡化二分圖中的每個分支，正如同比值矩陣法只需檢驗IBD矩陣中的每一個對角塊狀矩陣即可。在檢驗唯一性時，圖形法只需檢驗簡化二分圖中的分支數是否唯一，正如同比值矩陣法只需檢驗IBD矩陣中的對角塊狀數是否唯一即可。在求所有的聯合機率分配時，運用比值矩陣法可推算出所有的聯合機率分配，但是圖形法則無法求出。 三維中，本文提出了修正比值矩陣法，將比值數組按照某種索引方式在平面上有規則地呈現，可降低所需處理矩陣的大小。此外，我們也發現修正比值矩陣中的橫直縱迴路和簡化二分圖中的迴路有對應的關係，因此可觀察出兩種方法所獲致某些結論的關聯性。在檢驗唯一性時，圖形法是檢驗簡化二分圖中的分支數是否唯一，而修正比值矩陣法是檢驗兩個修正比值矩陣是否分別有唯一的GROPE矩陣。修正比值矩陣法可推算出所有的聯合機率分配。 圖形法可用於任何維度中，修正比值矩陣法也可推廣到任何維度中，但在應用上，修正比值矩陣法比圖形法較為可行。 / The issue of the compatibility of finite discrete conditional distributions could be discussed hierarchically according to the compatibility, the uniqueness, and finding all possible joint probability distributions. There are several published methods, but only the Ratio Matrix Method and the Graphical Method are analyzed and compared in this thesis. In bivariate case, a close correspondence between the components of the reduced bipartite graph and the diagonal block matrices of the IBD matrix can be found. When we examine the compatibility, just as simply each diagonal block matrix of the IBD matrix needs to be examined using the Ratio Matrix Method, so does each component of the reduced bipartite graph using the Graphical Method. When we examine the uniqueness, just as whether the number of the diagonal blocks of the IBD matrix is unique needs to be examined, so does the number of the components of the reduced bipartite graph. The Ratio Matrix Method can provide all possible joint probability distributions, but the Graphical Method cannot. In trivariate case, this thesis proposes a Revised Ratio Matrix Method, in which we can present the ratio array regularly in the plane according to the index and reduce the corresponding matrix size. It is also found that each circuit in the revised ratio matrix corresponds to a circuit in the reduced bipartite graph. Therefore, the relation between the results of the two methods can be observed. When we examine the uniqueness with the Graphical Method, we examine whether the number of the components in the reduced bipartite graph is unique. But with the Revised Ratio Matrix Method, we examine whether each revised ratio matrix has a unique GROPE matrix. All possible joint probability distributions can be derived through the Revised Ratio Matrix Method. The Graphical Method can be applied to the higher dimensional cases, so can the Revised Ratio Matrix Method. But the Revised Ratio Matrix Method is more feasible than the Graphical Method in application.

研究目的：本研究旨在探究高功能自閉症類群障礙（High-Functioning Autism Spectrum Disorder, HFASD）兒童基本的運動知覺、動物生物性運動知覺、與人類生物性運動知覺之偏好注視表現與注意力時間歷程，逐步澄清HFASD兒童的生物性運動知覺表現與社會缺損的關聯性。此外，針對自閉症類群障礙的異質性，進一步探討HFASD兒童具智能優異特質者之生物性運動知覺表現。 研究方法：本研究共招募50名7至10歲之HFASD兒童與25名配對生理年齡與智力之TD兒童。本研究採偏好注視作業，以光點呈現三種運動刺激對比的視覺配對情境：（1）基本運動知覺：物體運動配對散亂運動；（2）動物生物性運動知覺：動物運動配對物體運動；（3）人類生物性運動知覺：人類運動配對動物運動。透過眼動追蹤技術測量受試兒童觀看各運動刺激之凝視時間比例與時間歷程之凝視可能性。研究亦涵蓋智力、症狀嚴重度、及適應行為評估。 研究結果：基本運動知覺方面，TD兒童與HFASD 兒童皆對散亂運動具偏好反應。生物性運動知覺方面，整體來說，TD與HFASD兒童皆較偏好動物與人類運動。時間歷程分析顯示，HFASD與TD兒童在相同的時間窗格對動物與人類運動產生偏好興趣。此外，在動物生物性運動知覺中，於時間歷程早期階段，HFASD兒童偏好動物運動之程度低於TD兒童，且偏好動物運動的程度與社會溝通缺損具相關性，於晚期階段，兩組偏好動物運動的程度無顯著差異。在人類生物性運動知覺中，於時間歷程早期階段，HFASD兒童偏好人類運動的程度與TD兒童相當，隨時間遞增，TD兒童維持對人類運動的偏好興趣，然而，HFASD兒童對人類運動的偏好興趣則逐步遞減，至晚期階段，HFASD兒童偏好人類運動的程度顯著低於TD兒童，且與自閉症狀具相關性。考量本研究HFASD兒童樣本之異質性，結果指出智能優異的HFASD兒童對動物生物性運動的偏好程度與TD兒童相當，但在人類生物性運動知覺中，智能優異組與非智能優異組皆隨時間遞增對人類運動的偏好興趣則逐步遞減。 總結：研究結果指出，HFASD兒童對生物性運動的偏好興趣及產生偏好的速度與TD兒童無明顯差異。但HFASD兒童對人類生物性運動偏好興趣的持續度較TD兒童低落，且不因認知優勢具補償作用。整體而言，顯示HFASD兒童的生物性運動知覺表現型態在反映其社會缺損上具有參考價值。本研究也進一步探討臨床應用、研究限制與未來的研究方向。 / Purposes: This study investigated the preferential attention and attentional processing on the basic motion perception, animal biological motion perception, and human biological motion perception in children with High-Functioning Autism Spectrum Disorder (HFASD). It aimed to explore the processing of biological motion perception in children with HFASD and the association to social deficit. Moreover, concerning the heterogeneity within ASD, the study examined the biological motion perception in intellectually gifted children within HFASD. Method: Fifty children aged 7 to 10 years with HFASD and twenty-five children with typically development（TD）matched on age and IQ were recruited. The current study utilized preferential looking paradigm and motion point-light displays, demonstrating three visual comparison: (1) basic motion perception: object motion paired with scrambled motion; (2) animal biological motion perception: animal motion paired with object motion; (3) human biological motion: human motion paired with animal motion. Eye-tracking techniques were applied to measure proportion of dwell time and time course of fixation probability on each motion stimuli. Cognitive function, symptom severity, and adaptive function were also measured. Result: In basic motion perception, children with TD and HFASD preferentially attend toward scrambled motion. In biological motion perception, generally, children with TD and HFASD preferentially attend toward animal motion and human motion. Time-course analysis revealed that children with TD and HFASD attended toward animal motion and human motion at the same time window. Moreover, in animal biological motion perception, children with HFASD showed lower preferential interest in animal motion than children with TD at the early stage of time course, and there were no significnant difference between groups at the late stage of time course. The results also found that the level of preference for animal motion was associated with the severity of social communication. In human biological motion perception, children with TD and HFASD showed similar level of preferential interest in human motion at the early stage of time course; afterthat, children with TD matained preferential interest in human motion across time, but children with HFASD reduced preferential interest in human motion across time. At the late stage of time course, children with HFASD showed significantly lower level preferential interest in human motion than children with TD, and it was associated to symptom severity. Concerning the heterogeneity within the study sample of HFASD, results indicated that there was no difference on the level of preferential interest in animal motion between intellectually gifted HFASD (IG-HFASD) and TD group; however, in human biological motion perception, IG-HFASD and nonIG-HFASD group reduced preferential interest in human motion across time course compared to TD group. Conclusion: Findings suggested that children with HFASD exhibit the equivalent preferential interest and speed of attending to biological motion as did TD children. However, children with HFASD reduced referential interest in human biological motion across time course compared to TD children, and not influenced by the intellectually gifted advantage with compensation. The results implicated that biological motion perception may play an important role to understanding the social deficit in children with ASD. Theoretical and clinical implications of the study were discussed.

「訴訟條件（Prozesvoraussetzung）」，乃德國民事訴訟法學者Oskar Bulow於一八六八年，在所謂「訴訟法律關係說」之相關論題下所提倡之訴訟法概念，嗣經德國Von Kries於一八八五年將其引入刑事訴訟法理論中，如今已然被廣泛地承認為民、刑事訴訟法學之共通財產。 自從Bulow於一八六八年創立「訴訟條件」後，訴訟條件在德國刑事法學界，隨著對「訴訟」本身性質之論爭，先後有「訴訟法律關係成立條件說」、「實體裁判條件說」、「實體審判條件說」、「全訴訟的許容性條件說」之出現，其發展可認為針對訴訟條件之「訴訟」要素，作了精密之考察與界定。該等理論先後引入日本後，與日本實定法上原先沿襲自法國之形式裁判立法發展（即有關公訴權消滅、免訴事由、公訴駁回事由以及管轄錯誤之立法，該等條文與事由之沿革與修訂，可認為在是訴訟條件之「條件」因素上進行類型化之工作）產生了一連串的交會、碰撞，進而導致密切之結合。表現此結合，最具代表性的是團藤博士之「公訴權理論否認論」、免訴裁判之「實體關係的形式裁判說」以及「形式訴訟條件與實體訴訟條件」之區分，「公訴權理論否認論」解釋了「公訴權消滅」相關條文之刪除，並使公訴權理論成為訴訟條件理論之一個面向；後二者，則使「免訴」與「不受理」判決之區別獲得理論基礎，並將法定形式裁判之事由，內化為訴訟條件之事由。在這樣的訴訟條件蓬勃氣象下，日本因戰敗，刑事訴訟法在承繼前開法、德大陸法之下，又強迫性地繼受了美國之當事人進行主義。在當事人進行主義之下，「當事人」凸顯為訴訟法之焦點，影響之下，檢察官之公訴權重獲重視（但重點在於抑制公訴而非強化公訴），被告之保障成為首要之考量，訴訟條件乃朝向「『起訴』條件說」發展，其表現則有「公訴權理論之復活」（引發「公訴權濫用論」之出現）、「訴訟條件之實質化與擴大化」（包括將訴訟條件之「訴訟」概念擴及「起訴」，「條件」概念則擴大成「超法規」）。我國由於刑事訴訟法主要繼受日本之大正刑事訴訟法，目前又有朝向當事人進行主義修法之種種提議與動向，有關訴訟條件之相關見解可認為是站在日本舊法發展之高點上（此所以學者多採團藤教授之見解），觀望日本新法之新動向（此所以平野、高田、青柳、松尾、田宮等教授之見解，日漸受到重視）。 本篇論文主要係以刑事訴訟上「訴訟條件」之相關課題作為研究對象與範圍。因此，方法上在確定相關問題點之後，即先嘗試回顧「訴訟條件」之理論構成與沿革，藉以重現訴訟條件之原始意涵與變革脈絡，期能有效掌握訴訟條件之理論基礎，以作為訴訟條件概念之思考基準；隨後則分析學者對訴訟條件之定義、分類以及類似概念之比較，並就訴訟條件之本質、機能及範圍加以檢討，以便界定訴訟條件之概念與地位，俾供往後相關課題討論之所本。此即【第二章 訴訟條件理論之歷史沿革】與【第三章 訴訟條件概念之掌握與界定】。至於【第四章 法定的訴訟條件】、【第五章 超法規的訴訟條件】，則透過分析訴訟條件與「判決」、「起訴」之關係，藉以釐清實定法上免訴、不受理、管轄錯誤以及絕對不起訴處分之事由與訴訟條件之關連，並進而明瞭超法規的訴訟條件事由之生成、內涵及發展動向。【第六章 訴訟條件在訴訟上之處理】則依據第二章、第三章之基準與前提，針對訴訟條件事由在刑事訴訟適用上所面臨之種種問題作個別之討論；至於【第七章 結論】，則為本論文報告之研究所得整理。

本論文包含兩篇獨立但主旨相關的文章， 目的均在探討融資契約與廠商投資的關聯，以分析融資契約的實質效果。第一篇文章「股價資訊外部性與新投資之採行」研究權益證券(股票)集訊、揭訊功能的實質效益，我們由股價資訊公開所產生的外部效果，分析股價資訊效率性與廠商投資效率之間的關聯。在1.眾多異質廠商，2.投資具實質選擇權(real options)特性的假設下，內生化廠商與股市交易者的資訊取得決策，發現1. 均衡時廠商的投資與資訊取得決策取決於廠商技術水準與股價效率性之高低：高股價效率性時，無廠商取得新資訊，皆根據股價判斷投資，低股價效率性時，僅較低技術廠商根據股價資訊投資。2. 股價有額外的資訊揭露效果：由於廠商僅能獲得新資訊的部份效益，且廠商利用資訊有機會成本，將投資證券化可提高新資訊被揭露的可能性，使得資訊可被充份利用，提昇投資效率。3. 股價資訊可提增投資效率，增加廠商期望報酬，但當體系平均技術水準落後，新資訊的實質效益低落時，股價資訊公開的外部淨效益亦趨薄弱，故經濟發展初期，股市資訊公開的外部效益相對不重要。 第二篇文章「抵押品、財務槓桿與廠商投資」研究借貸契約中，抵押品舒緩借貸限制的作用，及其可能產生的實質效果。我們採用Williamson(1986,1987)的狀態確認成本模型(costly state verification model)，在該訊息不對稱模型，廠商向外融資面臨借貸限制，僅較高自有資金廠商可獲融資。當借貸市場資金相當寬鬆，資金供給恆大於資金需求，資金成本(無風險利率)為一由模型外因素所決定的外生參數時，抵押融資不影響資金成本，此時抵押品具有舒緩借貸限制的作用，體系財務槓桿提高，期望查帳成本下降，投資的期望淨產出增加。若資金相對緊俏，無風險利率須由借貸市場均衡所內生決定時，長期而言，財務槓桿僅受體系資金寬鬆程度的影響，短期間抵押融資雖能提高財務槓桿，但隨槓桿之提高，資金需求增加，無風險利率上揚，在新的均衡，較低自有資金廠商投資的期望報酬下降，借貸利率上漲，反而增加其應負債務，資產狀況惡化，此即本文所欲突顯之抵押融資的潛在成本。 第一章 緒論 3 第一節 研究動機 3 第二節 研究內容與架構 5 第二章 文獻回顧 7 第一節 融資契約的功能 7 第二節 金融結構與實質經濟活動 13 第三節 股價資訊與廠商投資 18 第四節 抵押品與廠商投資 22 第三章 股價資訊外部性與新投資之採行 27 第一節 前言 27 第二節 基本模型 29 第三節 期中股市均衡與股價效率性 35 第四節 股價資訊外部效益 41 第五節 小結 46 附 錄 47 第四章 抵押品、財務槓桿與廠商投資 53 第一節 前言 53 第二節 基本模型 55 第三節 抵押融資模型-資金寬鬆時的抵押品效果 62 第四節 抵押融資模型-資金緊俏時的抵押品效果 66 第五節 小結 70 第五章 結論 72 第一節 研究限制 72 第二節 未來研究方向 77 參考文獻 79 / This dissertation collects two separate but related papers, both study the channel through which financing contracts can affect firms' investment decisions and the corresponding real effects. The first paper " Informational Externality of Stock Prices and Firms' New Investment Decisions" analyzes what real benefits the information acquisition and signaling function of stocks can produce. From the viewpoint of informational externality, stock prices may disclose some valuable information beneficial to firms' investment decisions. Under the assumptions of " heterogeneous technology" and "new investment as a real option", this paper finds 1. Firms' investment and information acquisition decisions are determined both by their own technology level and stock prices efficiency. With high price efficiency, no firms acquire information directly, all make investment decisions based on stock prices. With low price efficiency, most firms acquire information directly, only few low-tech firms make decisions according to stock prices. 2. Stock prices have additional signaling effect. Firms can ony get half benefits of new information, besides they have opportunity costs in using information. As a result, stock prices can enhance the possibility of information disclosure, improving investment efficiency. 3. When the economy is underdeveloped and the real benefit of new information is small, the net benefit produced by informational externality will be tiny. The stock prices externality effect is thus comparatively unimportant at the beginning stage of economy. The second paper " Collateral, Financial Leverage and Firms' Investment"analyzes the constraints-smoothing function of collateral and its real effects. By adopting Williamson's costly state verification model(1986,1987), I find that with this specific asymmetric information structure, there are financing constraints in capital markets, only firms whose own capital inputs are higher above some level can get borrowed capital. The question is " Can offering collateral smooth this kind of financing constraints?" In markets with abundant capital where capital supply always exceeds demand, capital cost(riskless interest rate)will be an exdogenously-determined parameter which won't be affected by collateral financing. In this scenario, collateral can smooth financing constraints, increase financial leverage and improve the net expected return of investment. On the contrary, if capital is not so abnudant that the capital cost should be determined endogenously by capital market equilibrium, then in the long run this economy's financial leverage depends only on the relative abundance of capital. Though collateral financing can increase financial leverage in the short run, as capital demand increases, capital cost will also increase. This will offset the initial smoothing effect of collateral. After full adjustment of capital cost, at the new equilibrium the financial leverage remains unchanged. However, the expected return of firms with lower own capital inputs become smaller, and their borrowing rates become higher which mean they have heavier debt burden and less net worth at the new equilibrium.

分析具有巢狀誤差結構的迴歸模式時，惹忽略隨機誤差項之間的相關性，而採用最小平方(OLS)估計量所導出的標準 F 統計量（以 F^S表之）進行檢定，會導致過大的型 I 錯誤機率；若將隨機誤差項之間的相關性納入考量，而採用廣義最小平方(GLS)估計量所導出的 F 統計量 （以 F^GLS表之），則計算上會較為繁雜。因此我們藉由轉換方式，將模式轉換成隨機誤差項之間彼此獨立的新模式後，再以 F^S 進行檢定，其結果與直接以 F^GLS 檢定相同，且可使計算較為方便。由於模式轉換所需的轉換矩陣為母體變異數的函數，因此當母體變異數未知時，我們以 Henderson 的常數配適 （fitting-of-constants）方法來估計之。藉由模擬結果得知，若各段的觀察個數相等，則不論巢狀誤差結構為二段式(two-stage)或三段式(three-stage)，廣義最小平方估計量(GLS)均較最小平方估計量(OLS)表現穩定，且 F^GLS 在檢定力及實際顯著水準方面的表現也都比 F^S 好。 / When analyzing the regression model with nested-error structure, if the correlations between errors are ignored, and conduting the model adequacy test by the standard F statistic (F^S) led from the ordinary leastsquares estimator (OLSE) , then the type I error rate will be inflated. However, if the corrlated structure is considered and the model is tested by F^GLS led from the general least-squares estimator (GLSE) , the calculation will be more complicate. The model can be transformed to a new model with independent random errors and then, tested by F^S . The result is the same as the one by F^GLS , also it is more convenient for calculation. Since the transformation matrix is a function of variance components, we estimate variance components by Henderson's fitting-of-constants when they are unknown. Through simulation, it is concluded that if the observations in each stage of nested-error structure are the same, the GLSE is more stable than the OLSE in both two-stage and tree-stage structures. Also, the power and the sizes of F^GLS will perform better than those of F^S .

本文採用可加性模型分析法建立台灣地區小型商用車市場之需求模型，並 引進Box-Jenkins時間序列模型處理具自我相關之誤差項，以利進行拔靴 推論設計時，能拔靴白干擾(bootstrapping white noise)，即重抽樣白 干擾的經驗分配。在此次研究過程中，除配適Box-Jenkins時間序列模型 外，所有分析步驟都是完全自動的，不須作假設和檢驗的工作，所以可降 低傳統上因統計人員主觀判斷錯誤所造成的估計偏誤。可加性模型改進傳 統迴歸模型須先假設模型形式的限制，可從商用車實證分析中，直接由資 料配適平滑函數，顯見其合理性。拔靴法免除傳統推論程序須強使隨機干 擾項分配為常態分配或漸近常態分配之束縛，改由殘差經驗分配模擬隨機 干擾項分配行為，在推論商用車市場上，也獲得不錯的結果。

面對國人的人口老化及老年人慢性疾病逐年升高趨勢，隨著國人生活水準改善，醫療技術提升，平均餘命亦逐年提高；尤其，近年來國人平均餘命上升幅度較往年更為快速，加上少子化現象，對於衍生之老人照護問題，值得政府及民間各界重視。政府近年來大力推動長期照護政策，2007年推動「我國長期照顧十年計畫」，2009年底將「長期照護保險法」草案送立法院審議，預定2011年後實施長期照護保險制度。給付型態以實物給付（服務提供）為主，現金給付為輔，給付水準區分四級，且有補助時數限制。草案中引進「部分負擔」作法，超過政府補助時數，將由民眾全部自行負擔照護費用，可見被照護者或家屬所須負擔之照護費用及精神壓力，仍是一項沈重的負擔。 依據經建會委託長期照護服務需求評估報告及我國長期照護資源供給調查報告，顯示未來長期照護服務需求與照護資源供給相差甚遠。綜觀各國政府所提供之長期照護保障，以基本保障及服務為原則，若要達到讓身心功能障礙者，能夠增進獨立生活能力，提升生活品質，以維持尊嚴與自主之目的，當然，須要靠商業長期看護保險的補充，才能架構完整的長期照護保障網絡。 觀察國內在1995年全民健保制度實施後，明顯激發了民眾對於商業保險之健康醫療保險商品需求的重視與認同。以全民健保制度開辦當年(即1995年)至2004年，此十年間的商業健康保險保費收入來看，十年之間健康險保費收入成長超過七倍。顯示政府推動全民健保制度後，不但激發民眾潛在需求意識，而且促進商業保險商品多元化快速發展。依照先進國家在長期看護保險商品市場的發展經驗，保險公司除重視其商品架構之開發，針對消費者對於長期看護保險的各種認知問題，也應要求業務人員在銷售過程說明清楚，以擴大潛在商機，及避免日後產生非必要之爭議。 有鑑於此，本研究除了詳細彙整介紹德國、日本及台灣政府長期照護制度現況，並對於美國、日本及台灣長期看護保險商品市場進行深入介紹與探討，且對於美國、英國長期看護保險消費者購買須知進行深入介紹與探討。目的在藉由本研究之介紹與探討之結果，提供台灣保險產業長期看護保險之商品開發、業務推動及編製長期看護保險消費者購買須知等實務運作之重要參考。拋磚引玉，期待保險產業有志之士一起掌握藍海商機，協助消費者購買到適合自己的長期看護保險保單。 / Aging population is a topical issue to today’s society, with improved living standard, advanced medical technology, and rising trend of chronic diseases; causing life expectancy to increase year by year. As a result of faster increase in life expectancy in recent years, together with the phenomenon of low birth rates, long-term care is an issue that should be taken seriously to both the public and the government. Recently, the government has been promoting long-term care policy vigorously, where it published “Taiwan’s 10 Years Long-term Care Program” in 2007, submitted “Long-term Care Insurance Law ” draft to the Legislative Yuan of Republic of China by end of 2009, and is scheduled to implement “Long Term Care Insurance” by 2011. Long-term care benefits provided by the government can be classified into four levels, and the benefits will mainly be service based, with hours limit, supported by cash payments. This means that, any long-term care exceeding government’s limit will have to be paid by the user, which may be a stress and burden, financially and mentally, to the family of those needing long-term care. According to “Long-term Care Service Needs Assessment Report” and “Supply of Long-term Care Resources Survey Report” consigned by the Council for Economic Planning and Development, it can be seen that the supply of long-term care resources can never quite meet the demand of long-term care services. After studying long-term care benefits provided by other governments, it is clear that commercial insurance is essential to allow people requiring long-term care to maintain a full standard of living. This may includes being able to live independently, to improve the quality of life, and to maintain one’s dignity. By observing the National Health Insurance （NHI） in Taiwan, implemented in 1995, it has stimulate people to be aware of their personal needs towards private health insurance products. The premium of private health insurance products had been increased by seven times from 1995 to 2004. It has been proven that government’s strong support on the NHI has help people to better understand the demands on their health protection, and at the same time, diversify private health insurance products. An overview on the experience of developing private long-term care insurance products in developed countries, insurance companies not only focus their core competence on developing insurance products but also pay attention on maintaining customers’ satisfaction, customer loyalty and customer retention. It is essential that insurance sales agents should help clients choose insurance policies that suit their needs by explaining policies in detail, in order to create new business opportunities and prevent from any future claim conflict or argument. In view of this, the purpose of this research is to firstly introduce the long-term care system in countries such as German, Japan and Taiwan, study on the experience of developing private long-term care insurance products in developed countries, and follow by an in-depth study and discussion about U.S. and U.K. shopper’s guide to long-term care insurances. Moreover, the findings of this dissertation can hopefully provide suggestions to insurance companies on development of long-term care insurance products and help building consumers satisfaction and consumer retention. To conclude, it is important to create a win-win solution to both customers and insurance companies, where insurers shall develop long-term care products that satisfy customers’ need and in return profit from the market opportunities.

Black and Scholes (1973)對於報酬率提出以B-S模型配適，但B-S模型無法有效解釋報酬率不對稱高狹峰、波動度微笑、波動度叢聚、長記憶性的性質。Merton (1976)認為不尋常的訊息來臨會影響股價不連續跳躍，因此發展B-S模型加入不連續跳躍風險項的跳躍擴散模型，該模型可同時描述報酬率不對稱高狹峰和波動度微笑兩性質。Charles, Fuh and Lin (2011)加以考慮市場狀態提出狀態轉換跳躍模型，除了保留跳躍擴散模型可描述報酬率不對稱高狹峰和波動度微笑，更可以敘述報酬率的波動度叢聚和長記憶性。本文進一步拓展狀態轉換跳躍模型，考慮不連續跳躍風險項的帄均數與市場狀態相關，提出狀態轉換跳躍相關模型。並以道瓊工業指數與S&P 500指數1999年至2010年股價指數資料，採用EM和SEM分別估計參數與估計參數共變異數矩陣。使用概似比檢定結果顯示狀態轉換跳躍相關模型比狀態轉換跳躍獨立模型更適合描述股價指數報酬率。並驗證狀態轉換跳躍相關模型也可同時描述報酬率不對稱高狹峰、波動度微笑、波動度叢聚、長記憶性。最後利用Esscher轉換法計算股價指數選擇權定價公式，以敏感度分析模型參數對於定價結果的影響，並且市場驗證顯示狀態轉換跳躍相關模型會有最小的定價誤差。 / Black and Scholes (1973) proposed B-S model to fit asset return, but B-S model can’t effectively explain some asset return properties, such as leptokurtic, volatility smile, volatility clustering and long memory. Merton (1976) develop jump diffusion model (JDM) that consider abnormal information of market will affect the stock price, and this model can explain leptokurtic and volatility smile of asset return at the same time. Charles, Fuh and Lin (2011) extended the JDM and proposed regime-switching jump independent model (RSJIM) that consider jump rate is related to market states. RSJIM not only retains JDM properties but describes volatility clustering and long memory. In this paper, we extend RSJIM to regime-switching jump dependent model (RSJDM) which consider jump size and jump rate are both related to market states. We use EM and SEM algorithm to estimate parameters and covariance matrix, and use LR test to compare RSJIM and RSJDM. By using 1999 to 2010 Dow-Jones industrial average index and S&P 500 index as empirical evidence, RSJDM can explain index return properties said before. Finally, we calculate index option price formulation by Esscher transformation and do sensitivity analysis and market validation which give the smallest error of option prices by RSJDM.