過去文獻少有探討不動產的收益穩定性，多重視市場租金或市場空置率的變化，但隨著辦公大樓證券化投資風潮，個別大樓的租金和空置率變化，以及大樓租金收益穩定性成為投資的重要判斷指標，而其中租戶結構更是辦公大樓租金收益穩定的主要來源，也是大樓空置率的重要影響因子，成為本文研究之焦點。本文實地調查台北市主要辦公室商圈中90棟辦公大樓，並以三階段最小平方法（3SLS）聯立模型分析影響個別辦公大樓租金及空置率的因素，研究結果發現，空置率增加1%將使每坪月租金減少13.09元，但每坪月租金增加100元會造成大樓空置率上升1.55%。其次，平均每層租戶數目多、租戶平均面積大、租戶以外商公司為主體、企業平均利潤率高、「金融及保險、不動產及租賃、專業科學及技術服務業」等行業佔大樓面積比例愈高等因素，皆能有效降低辦公大樓空置率，使投資人的租金收益更穩定。由此可知，成功的辦公大樓投資或證券化，租戶結構對於空置狀況的影響應加以重視，方能確保未來擁有穩定的租金收益。 因不動產證券化發展，辦公大樓投資組合情況也應受到市場重視，本文以90棟辦公大樓進行兩兩任意組合模擬，在現有資料下，結果為相較於個別辦公大樓投資，若將辦公大樓採兩兩投資組合，能獲得較高報酬及較低風險。而分析組合內容可發現，重視大樓的建物品質比重視租戶品質更能達到效率組合，若選擇「好建物」的大樓納入投資組合中，將能提高組合的報酬；若選擇「好租戶」的大樓納入投資組合中，將能降低組合的風險。 / Previous literatures mostly focus on the change in market rental and vacancy rate of office buildings, but rarely discuss the rental income stability of real estates investment. However, with the prevalence of office building securitization as investment targets goes on, the rental income stability of individual real estates has become an important indicator for investment purposes. Among many, tenant structure, the main focus of this study, is the major source of income stability of office buildings, and also an important factor to building vacancy rate. This study makes researches of ninety office buildings in the major business areas of Taipei, applying three stage least squares(3SLS) methods to analyze the factors that affect the rental and vacancy rate of individual office buildings. The empirical results of this study suggest that increasing per 1% in vacancy rate shall make decrease monthly rent by 13.09 $NTD/ping and increasing per 100$ NTD/ping in monthly rent shall make increase1.55% in building vacancy rate. Moreover, there are many factors, such as the average number of tenants on per floor, average rental size from per tenant, foreign firms are the main tenants of office building, the average firm return rate, can all efficiently lower the vacancy rate of office buildings, and make rental returns more stable for investors. Besides, if the industries of finance and insurance, real estate and rental, science expertise and technical service make up a high proportion of total floor surface will lower the vacancy rate.Therefore we know that, for a successful office building securitization or investment, the effect of tenant structure on vacancy rate should be more recognized in order to ensure a future possession of stable rental returns. Due to the development in the Real Estate Securitization, the situations in portfolio of office buildings should receive its share of attention from the market. This paper simulates 90 office buildings into random pairs and finds out that, in contrary to stand-alone investments, investing in pairs shall yield a higher return at a lower risk. Analyzing the contents of the portfolio, we can find out that, paying more attention on the quality of the building rather than on the quality of tenants can more easily attain efficiency. Putting a “good building” into an portfolio shall increase return, and putting in a building with “good tenants” shall reduce risk.

國外住宅租金普遍具有復歸性質，理性投資者應考慮此性質，於市場高峰期預期較低的未來租金成長率，而以較高資本化率進行評價，於市場谷底期預期較高的未來租金成長率，以較低的資本化率進行評價。故理性預期將導致市場波動穩定。近年相關研究發現，英國投資者對未來租金成長的預期相對較美國及澳洲的投資者理性，投資者理性程度可能具地區差異。本研究利用向量自我迴歸模型驗證台北地區住宅租金具有復歸性質。利用追蹤資料迴歸分析實證台北地區住宅資本化率資料，探討投資者是否具理性預期；研究發現投資者的評價未考慮租金的賦歸性質，不具理性預期，於市場租金低迷時期過於悲觀，於市場租金快速成長時期過於樂觀。此外，本研究探討投資者理性預期的地區差異，發現市場資訊流通較高的台北市，投資者預期相對較台北縣合理，其市場資本化率波動亦較穩定。顯示投資者理性程度對於住宅市場的穩定性具有重要意義。 / Housing rents are widely considered to be mean or trend reverting overseas. Rational investors should consider the reverting potential of rents so that they would expect lower / higher future rental growth rates at rental cyclic peaks / troughs, hence higher / lower capitalization rates. Investors with rationality could appropriately value their housing property, hence they help stability of housing market. Recent studies have found more rationality in the expectations of rental growth of English investors relative to the U.S. and Australian investors. In this study, we use a vector autoregression model to examine the reverting nature of housing rents in Taipei. We use a panel data regression analysis to explore the rationality of housing investors by examining the relationship between current rent level and capitalization rates. The empirical results suggest that investors were too pessimistic / optimistic while rent level is relatively low / high, they have not built the reverting nature of rents into their valuations / or their capitalization rates. Further, we have found more irrationality in Taipei County than that in Taipei City, as a result of the information sufficiency in Taipei City. Hence the volatility of capitalization rates in Taipei County is greater than in Taipei City, indicating that investor rationality plays an important role in housing market.

隨著社會經濟結構的轉型，目前台灣已邁向服務業為主的社會型態。為應該服務業及商業所需的辦公空間，因此辦公大樓陸續的興建。隨著近年來不動產的投資興盛，辦公大樓成為了外資或者保值的投資選擇。而判斷辦公大樓價值的標準即為該大樓所能創造的收益為何。辦公大樓的收益為租金，因此了解影響租金組成的因素，能夠提供我們在進行投資決策時一個參考的依據。但過去已有許多租金影響因素之研究，是以本研究擬從不同的觀點切入來探討租金的成因。 近十年來，國內許多豪宅或者知名的辦公大樓引進入物業管理的方式，取代了過去由管理委員會主導的管理模式。物業管理的興起，乃是人們對於住宅安全以及管理品質引申需求。對於物業管理的研究，國內目前仍著重在管理績效的衡量以及利用電腦提升物業管理效率的部分，鮮有探討辦公大樓租金與物業管理之間的關連。是以，本研究以台北市六行政區的辦公大樓為標的，利用特徵價格模型(Hedonic Price Model)和BOX-COX轉換，從物業管理的觀點來探討辦公大樓租金的影響因素。 / In Taiwan, business has become the main economic activity. The more prosperous business is, the more office spaces are requested. To understand the composition of office rent, hedonic price model is used as an analysis tool frequently. The varieties, such as age, distance of MRT, or standard floor, are usually used as the hedonic varieties. When property management is getting popular in the decade, there are few research use property management as varieties. To understand if the difference of property management style would affect the office rent, this essay used Box-Cox translation and Semi-Log regression to analyze the relationship between property management and office rent.

為因應市場變動性及解決租約僵固性，不動產租賃契約中多存在變動條款，以提供承出租雙方彈性管理使用。租金調整係不動產租賃契約中常見的選擇權條款，惟在契約自由原則下，不論歐、美國家租金僅向上調整方式，或國內以一固定比例向上調整租金方式，均造成租金下固性之情形，明顯獨厚出租人，導致承租人過度負擔市場變動風險，進而產生租約價值偏離理論價值之缺失。由於傳統評定租約價值之現金流量法無法評價租約中選擇權價值，近年來國外學者廣泛應用各種選擇權評價方法，期能求得理論上之租約價值，同時改善承出租雙方間權益不公之現象。 　　本研究基於租金僅向上調整隱含選擇權價值之觀點，應用二項式選擇權評價方法，建構不動產租賃契約評價模式。經由個案模擬，探討不同租金調整方式下租約價值之差異；同時運用敏感度分析，瞭解各變數變動對於選擇權價值將產生何種影響。最後藉由分析結果，對於承出租雙方在租金調整決策上提出建議。 / To manage more flexible and reduce transaction costs for both landlords and tenants, most clauses of real estate lease implicit option value. Rent review is a common option-like term. Leases with upward-only rent review clauses not only existed in USA and UK, but also in Taiwan. The rent will be merely adjusted upwards. Because of traditional discounted cash flow method can not deal with the option nature in leases, many scholars applied option pricing approaches to evaluate lease contract value in recent years. 　　This research assumes that upward-only rent review clause is embedded option value and uses binomial option pricing approach to develop the lease pricing model for real estate. Firstly, the author compares different rent review types and their value by case study. Moreover, this study uses sensitive analysis to probe how important variable affect option value. Finally, I provide suggestions to landlords and tenants in rent review policy decision.

過去雖有文獻探討國內房地產市場泡沫化問題，卻僅從租金收益的單一角度衡量房價基值，對於自有住宅比例較高的台灣而言，家戶所得不僅代表購屋者的負擔能力，更是構成房價基值的重要因素。有鑑於此，本研究分別從租金收益及家戶所得兩者不同角度下，透過資產市場現值模型，分別建立房價基值模型分析泡沫化現象。此外，過去文獻僅從檢定價格波動穩定性與否或將殘差項視為泡沫來研究泡沫化問題，然泡沫為不可觀察之變數，故本文使用具有可估計不可觀察變數特質的狀態空間模型（STATE-SPACE MODEL），推估泡沫價格，分析在不同時期下泡沫的規模大小。 在實證方面，本研究使用台北市1973Q2至2008Q1共140筆住宅價格資料，發現由租金與所得所計算之房價泡沫規模略為一致。在1988~1990年房市泡沫化時期，所得推估之泡沫規模達到高峰，泡沫價格占市價約47%；而由租金面亦計算出泡沫價格占市價約54%的高比例。而在2008年房價持續上漲的情況下，兩者泡沫價格亦呈現相同上升之走勢，泡沫價格近市價38%，租金推估泡沫價格占市價27%；此結果表示出目前房市有泡沫化之跡象，現階段欲購屋自住者不宜進入市場，宜審慎等待時機。而本文認為房價所得比或是房價租金比皆是作為衡量台北市房地產市場泡沫化現象之重要指標，另外就總體因素分析而言，房價上漲率、貨幣供給額、貸款利率與大盤股價指數皆為影響泡沫之重要因素，且經由實證發現所得所推估之泡沫價格較具有市場代表性。 / The past literatures about Taipei housing price bubble has only been measured the fundamental price by rent. However, the housing owner ratio is so high in Taiwan that housing income is not only regarded as affordability but also an important fundamental factor of housing price. According to the above, we focus on different fundamental models that define market fundamental price to analyses the bubble price from expected present value of both rent and permanent housing income. On the other hand, different from lots of literature testing the housing price volatility or residual to measure bubble prices, because housing bubble is an unobservable variable, we apply State-Space Model which is good for testing an invisible factor to estimate bubble in the housing markets of Taipei. This paper tries to test whether there was a housing price bubble using Taipei housing price index ranged from 1973Q1 to 2008Q1. The findings indicate that there appeared bubble ratio from 1988 to 1990, 47% of the housing price based on housing income and 54 % of the housing price based on rent. In 2008 when housing price continually keeps rising, bubble price ratios are close to 38% and 27% respectively. Those results show that Taipei seems to have sign of a bubble in this moment and housing buyers should concern it with more caution. Secondly, both price-income ratio and price-rent ratio are good indicators to measure housing bubble prices. Beside, we find macro economic factors change, such as the growth rate of housing price, M2, mortgage rate, and stock price index, are important to influence the size of housing bubble. Thirdly, bubble price estimated by housing income has a better performance than rent.

值此工商業蓬勃發展之際，辦公室活動早已取代製造業活動，成為都市中最重要之經濟活動基礎，然而國內有關商用不動產之研究卻仍方興未艾，未見系統化與學術上之專門研究，遠落後於國外之研究幾達二十年，是以本研究試圖從國內對住宅不動產研究之心得，加以嘗試引藉用於探討住宅與辦公室之租金差異，藉以瞭解面積、區位與產品特徵屬性等要素對於兩種租賃不動產租金之影響。其次，進一步加入國內合法與違規混合使用之住辦混合產品進行討論，以便於澄清住辦混合產品的相輔與轉換使用彈性優勢，是否使其享有更好的租金報酬。本研究第二部分探討國內大型企業辦公室最近十年間的區位選擇與遷徙活動，分析大型企業的主要辦公室區位是否與產業的變遷趨勢一致？並探討生產力函數中的效率參數--電子與面對面資訊，以及資本、勞力、產業類型與經營績效等變數，對大型企業廠商辦公室區位變遷決策的影響，藉以釐清大型企業辦公室的區位活動。最後，則是從一般性的辦公室活動討論中，進一步切入以分公司辦公室活動作為研究主題，探討廠商擴張後的分公司辦公室區位選擇，是否與一般辦公室活動相同？藉以澄清分公司辦公室活動對地區發展之影響。綜上三大研究課題，本文獲致如下結論： 一、從辦公室、住宅與住辦混合產品租金比較中發現，面積、區位與產品特徵屬性對辦公室和住宅租金的影響有顯著差異，而住辦混合產品在各要素對租金的彈性變動敏感程度普遍不及於其他兩種產品，顯示住辦混合產品在各要素對租金的影響上不如單一使用的產品，亦間接推論住辦混合產品的外部成本可能大於外部經濟，使得單純使用的辦公室或住宅所反映的高品質依舊能享有較高的租金。同樣的，住辦混合中間產品的轉換特性也未使其出現辦公室大於住辦混合，又大於住宅產品之經濟直覺般的競租順序。因此，未來廠商或出租者在產品的規劃設計上，應該要朝向以提供高品質單一用途之租賃不動產為主。其次，從產品特徵屬性對不同類型不動產租金的影響結果發現，辦公室比較重視總樓層所帶來的名望效果，以及業務吸引力；而住宅則比較看重所在樓層之效用可及性，顯示未來在產品規劃上，辦公室除了著重區位考量外，也應重視總樓層所帶來的效益，而住宅則可以加強對所在樓層特徵屬性之考量。 二、從大型企業辦公室的區位選擇與遷徙研究中發現，大型企業廠商的辦公室區位選擇與其產業的區位變遷並不一致；服務業的大型企業辦公室顯著的集中在市中心，但製造業的大型企業辦公室則因著區位先佔優勢與惰性，以及生產性服務業之特性，並未同其產業一樣顯著的遷徙至市郊，顯示製造業的外移，並未同時影響其企業主要辦公室同樣外移，反倒是若干服務業辦公室在擠不進市中心的情況下，只得選擇郊化外移。因此，未來應視大型企業之資訊需求種類與強度，誘導其向市中心或市郊聚集，對於僅需電子資訊的大型企業，應加強資訊技術提昇，以降低面對面接觸之通勤往返成本，並促使其向郊區搬遷，以便於獲得更廉價的辦公空間，並降低廠商營運之租金成本，而空出的市中心辦公大樓，也能為企業賺取一份租金收益。其次，面對大型企業辦公室的外移趨勢，未來應推動郊區辦公園區的規劃，以便於聚集日益增加的後勤辦公室，而市中心的再發展與更新，也有助於吸引更多需要面對面資訊的大型企業進駐。再者，從大型企業廠商辦公室的遷徙決策研究中發現，除了需要電子資訊的大型企業有顯著的遷徙以外，個別產業的遷徙仍不明顯，惟可察覺出遷徙的軌跡是由市中心移出，並向市區與市郊移動，是以為預防中心都市之衰頹與降低都市擴張，應儘早加強中心商業區之更新。 三、分公司辦公室區位選擇研究結果發現，分公司辦公室的區位活動並不完全像典型辦公室活動一般集中於市中心，不同類型的分公司辦公室明顯的集中在不同的核心地區。其中，輔助性活動型分公司顯著的集中在市中心，面對面營業型分公司辦公室則是聚集在人口密集地區，而業務集散轉運型分公司更是向聯外交通便捷地區發展。由於分公司屬於企業的分支機構與擴張，其區位選址除了廠商自身利益的追求考量以外，更是決定一個地區發展與就業成長的關鍵。因此，對於不同核心地區，提供適當的商業用地、公共設施，並在法令上規定允許的使用項目，將有助於分公司辦公室的活動與整個都市的成長。其次，本研究從影響分公司區位選擇的因素中發現，除了專技人員薪資、資本與稅捐及規費等顯著的影響分公司設立於市中心以外，資本、稅捐及規費也顯著的影響分公司設立於人口密集地區，而樓地板面積、一般職員薪資與租金則是顯著的影響分公司辦公室選擇聯外交通便捷地區，此一結果顯示影響一般辦公室區位選擇的因素，對於分公司辦公室區位選擇的影響呈現出明顯的差異，影響分公司辦公室設立於人口密集地區與聯外交通便捷地區的變數要多於市中心，凸顯了分公司辦公室區位選擇的不同，應在辦公室的區位選擇研究中加以有所區隔。 目 錄 第一章 緒論 …………………………………………………………1 一、研究動機 ………………………………………………………1 二、研究目的 ………………………………………………………3 三、研究方法 ………………………………………………………4 四、資料說明 ………………………………………………………5 五、名詞定義 ………………………………………………………5 六、研究限制 ………………………………………………………6 七、研究流程 ………………………………………………………7 第二章 相關理論與文獻回顧 ……………………………...8 一、辦公室、住宅與住辦混合租金相關理論與文獻回顧 ………8 二、區位和聚集理論與辦公室相關文獻回顧 ……………………9 第三章 辦公室、住宅與住辦混合租金比較分析 ………..15 一、前言 ……………………………………………………………15 二、理論基礎與研究假說建立 ……………………………………16 三、現況分析與資料樣本統計描述 ………………………………22 四、實證分析 ………………………………………………………23 五、小結 ……………………………………………………………30 第四章 大型企業辦公室區位選擇與遷徙分析 …………..33 一、前言 ……………………………………………………………33 二、理論基礎 ………………………………………………………34 三、台北都會區大型企業辦公室概況分析 ………………………38 四、實證分析 ………………………………………………………46 五、小結 ……………………………………………………………61 第五章 分公司辦公室區位選擇分析 ……………………..64 一、前言 ……………………………………………………………64 二、理論基礎 ………………………………………………………65 三、實證模型與資料分析 …………………………………………69 四、實證分析結果與說明 …………………………………………73 五、小結 ……………………………………………………………78 第六章 結論 ………………………………………………...80 一、結論 ……………………………………………………………81 二、後續研究 ………………………………………………………84 參考文獻 …………………………………………………….86 附錄 ………………………………………………………….93 索引 ………………………………………………………….96 / This dissertation consisted of three relative essays. In the first paper, I analyzes the differences in the rent of office, housing and the mix-used from three factors - floor area, location, and characteristics of products. Empirical results show that the effect of the increase in floor area on the rent of housing is larger than that of office and the mix-used. There is a difference in marginal rent between office and housing in the city, while not difference in downtown. Additionally, the marginal rent for the location in the mix-used falls behind the other two types. In the characteristics of products, office emphasizes the reputation and business attraction brought about by the total number of floor while the housing puts more accessibility on the located floor in the building. However, the marginal rent of housing is more than that of office in the accessibility. As for the rent between office and the mix-used or for that between the housing and the mix-used, the characteristic show little significance because of the mixed use between these two types. In sum, the effects of the mix-used on the marginal rent and factors elasticity are not superior to the single use in all factors, and office or housing still has the higher rent. Results also show that transformation characteristic of the mix-used does not support the intuitional bid-rent order of office greater than the mix-used and housing in Taipei. In the second paper, I examined the largest corporations office location change in Taipei metropolitan area. This study uses the data that collected by China credit Information Service, Ltd. to analyze the location choice and migration of largest corporations. The empirical results show that the location choice of largest corporations differs from the location change of industries. The corporation of service industry significantly concentrates downtown while the manufacturing industry have no trend to significantly concentrate downtown because of prior occupation advantages and inertia. Additionally, firms requiring face-to-face information significantly concentrate in downtown, and high-tech firms requiring electronic information have significantly chose the location in the suburbs. As for the part of the foreign investment enterprises, they choose the location in downtown as well because of information and prestige image. In the decision of migration, firms requiring electronic information have significant movement while others are not obvious. Nevertheless, the whole migration process is obviously from downtown to the city area and the outskirts. Furthermore, the location choice of largest corporations having movement is the same as that of aforementioned largest corporations in the capital, work force, foreign investment enterprises, and operation performance. The final paper examined the location choice of branch office. The empirical results show that the location activities of branch office do not as same as general office to concentrated in CBD. The ancillary service branch (such as the law) is concentrated in CBD significantly. The business branch (such as bank) is concentrated in highly density of population district. And then the type of branches with distribution and transport (such as storehouse) is even more concentrated in convenient communications district. Next, the influences of factors on general office location choice have obvious difference to branch office.

財產稅素來為政府重要財政收入，有關財產稅稅基計算為政府與民眾關心之重要議題。國際上財產稅稅基評估方式，依收益來源之不同，可分為由「租金收入」所得之年租金價值，或由「交易」所得之市場價值。我國財產稅稅基為土地申報地價與房屋評定現值，屬於以成本法評估之市場價值。 本研究經由稅基理論之文獻回顧，並針對臺北市觀光旅館與辦公大樓進行模擬分析與迴歸分析，研究結果發現，國際上財產稅稅基評估方式為市場價值或租金價值，應用於臺灣其實屬於「成本價值」與「收益價值」之爭。本研究認為，基於商業不動產經營獲利特性、交易型態與行政便利，並且符合量能課稅原則，商業不動產宜採用收益面之租金價值作為財產稅稅基；然而，現行制度僅反映不動產成本面，未反映不動產收益面。另外，若以租金價值作為稅基，需扣除無形資產之價值。 最後，若財產稅稅制轉變為以租金價值作為稅基，就旅館而言，於政策上可以鼓勵廠商興建大規模觀光旅館，並對經營初期業者有利，對於旅館產業發展有助益。就辦公大樓而言，於政策上可以鼓勵廠商興建大規模辦公大樓，可以促進開發者整合較大面積土地進行開發。 / Property tax is one of the important tax revenues of the government. People care about how to calculate property tax base. There are two values-based approaches that depends on different revenue sources one is “Annual Rental Value” which is based on rents, the other is “Market Value” which is based on sales. The Taiwanese property tax is based on market value and on cost approach. The study explores the tax base theories and use differential tax incidence and regression model to test the property tax bases of hotels and offices. According to the literature, there are two main ways to assess the property tax bases: Market Value Basis and Annual Rental Value Basis. However, it turns out to be the difference of Cost Value and Income Value in Taiwan. Due to the revenue-generating feature and transaction style of commercial properties, administrative convenience and the ability-to-pay principle, the study suggests that we should use annual rental value as the property tax base of commercial properties. Nevertheless, the Taiwanese property tax base only reflects the cost of properties, not the revenue-generating capacities of properties. On the other hand, the rent value includes the intangible assets such as famous brand names, the additional value which is not from the property should be excluded from the tax base. Nevertheless, if the rental value is substituted for the cost value as a tax base, there will be some possible situations as a reference for policy makers. For hotels, it will encourage firms to construct big scale hotels, and it will be beneficial for the initial operation of hotels. For offices, it will encourage firms to construct big scale offices and it will promote the developers to create more land area as well. Keywords: commercial property, property tax, house tax, cost value, rental value