近年來，全球氣候變遷與環境惡化顯示目前人類活動與永續發展的衝突，如何減少能源消耗以降低溫室氣體排放成為當務之急。在都市規劃方面，以緊密都市理念探討都市發展與交通能源消耗最受到關注，然而都市發展與產業活動、家戶行為密切相關，因此若僅從交通方面分析能源消耗，恐忽略其他影響能源消耗的重要因素。故本研究著重於探討都市發展特性與能源消耗的關聯性，將產業活動與家戶行為納入模型分析，可更全面性了解都市與能源消耗的關聯性。此外，基於「全球思考、地方行動」的考量，如何落實節能減碳的目標，必須就各縣市的都市發展特性著手，透過追蹤資料模型，進一步了解各縣市的固定效果對能源消耗之影響以及能源消耗之時間趨勢。 透過對都市耗能部門進行分類，並以台灣改制後19個縣市為實證範圍，可以確認都市發展特性的幾個面向：土地使用密度、土地混合使用、交通屬性、產業屬性、家戶屬性、環境屬性與交通運輸、產業發展、家戶活動的耗能關係。實證結果發現，緊密都市有助於節能目標達成；道路增加可及性，但亦助長汽車使用，增加交通耗能；為提升大眾運輸使用率，需加強轉乘便利性以及改變私人交通運輸偏好；產業耗能與出口貿易關聯性高，不利能源減量；家戶居住行為與生活型態對能源消耗有正向影響；公園綠地能調節都市氣溫，減少耗能。 綜上所述，欲形塑一個節能減碳的都市必須透過多元途徑，在土地使用方面須維持適當的發展密度與混合程度；交通方面須加強大眾運輸便利性以提高民眾使用意願並抑制汽車使用；產業方面須透過政府獎勵節能措施及促進產業轉型以提升能源效率；家戶方面應透過教育及政策宣導以培養節能生活習慣，方能達成節能減碳的目標。 / In recent years, global climate change and environmental deterioration show a conflict between human activities and sustainable development. How to reduce energy consumption in order to mitigate greenhouse gas emission has become a top priority. According to the concept of compact city, urban planning is seen as the effective way to reduce transportation energy consumption. However, urban development is associated with industry development and household activities, so it would be improper to focus only on transportation sector. Thus the main motivation for this study is trying to illustrate urban development characteristics by combing transportation sector, industry sector and household sector, in order to understand the influence the urban development characteristics on energy consumption more comprehensively. In addition, on the concept of “global thinking, local action”, how to successfully implement energy saving policies should first understand the urban development characteristics of all counties. The purpose of this study is to empirically explore the influences of urban development characteristics on energy consumption by using panel data models, which uses the reorganization of nineteen counties areas in Taiwan as samples.In order to find out the fixed effect of all counties on energy consumption and trend of energy consumption. The empirical results show that the concepts of compact city still contributes the energy-saving goal；construction of roads increase accessibility, but also encourage car use, which increase energy consumption；to encourage the use of public transportation need to improve the convenience of transfer and change the preference of people；energy consumption in industry is highly associated to international trade, so it would be difficult for energy reduction；the trend of energy consumption has increased due to household lifestyle change；the green resources provides by park, which can adjust the temperature of city and reduce energy consumption. In sum, achieving the energy-saving city need diversified approaches, it can’t just keep increasing the density or land mixed-use. Traffic should be strengthened by improving transfer system. In order to increase the willingness to use public transport system and decrease car dependency；industry must trying to improve energy efficiency；households should cultivate the habit of saving energy by education in order to be a true energy-saving city.

城市化意味着城市的經濟結構、社會結構和空間結構變遷。隨着中國大陸城市化的推進，城市人口遷移、建成區面積增長，城市發展質量逐步提高，而同期內城市商品住宅價格亦呈現普遍而明顯的上漲趨勢。 過去雖有許多國內外文獻對全國城市商品住宅價格的影響因素進行了探討，但少有文獻從城市化的層面着眼進行研究；在部分集中討論城市化效應的文獻中，亦存在以省域代替城市作爲研究對象，以及採用橫截面數據進行實證研究，未能體現不同城市化和社會經濟發展階段之變動趨勢的缺憾。 有鑑於此，本文使用中國大陸2003年至2011年不同規模城市的相關追蹤資料，以“人口城市化”“土地城市化”和城市發展質量優化作爲城市化的主要體現，用從業人口、建設用地面積、房地產開發投資額等一系列指標作爲自變數構建追蹤資料固定效應模型，分析城市化對不同規模城市商品住宅價格的影響，探究中國大陸社會經濟重要發展來源的城市化能否繼續維持城市商品住宅市場的穩定。實證結果顯示，城市化發展對城市商品住宅價格上漲的貢獻明顯，而人口城市化的作用較之土地城市化更爲顯著；大城市和中小城市在城市化發展過程中商品住宅價格影響因素亦有所不同，城市發展中由政府主導的城市土地開發利用與基礎設施建設應集約化發展，土地城市化必須與人口城市化以及城市發展質量提升相互協調。 / Urbanization means changes of cities ‘economic structure, social structure and spatial structure. With the development of Chinese urbanization, the urban population and construction land area is growing, the urban development quality is improving gradually, in the same period city residential housing prices also presents common and obvious rising trend. In the past, although there were many domestic and external literature focusing on the influence factors of the national urban residential housing prices, but there were few literature based the study on the impact of urbanization; many of literatures in which the urbanization effect discussed, also taken provincial data as the research object instead of city , using cross-sectional data for empirical research, so failed to reflect changes in different stages of urbanization and social and economic development trend. In light of this, this article refer to mainland China from 2003 to 2011, 213 level panel data, related to "land urbanization" and "population urbanization" quality optimization as the main embodiment of urbanization, taking urban working population, construction land area, real estate investment and a series of indicators as independent variables to construct panel fixed effects model, in order to analyze the effect of urbanization on the urban residential property prices. We expect to explore whether if mainland China's urbanization, which is a source of important social and economic development of the nation, will continue to maintain the stability of the urban residential market. Empirical results indicates that the influence of urbanization on city residential housing price is evident, besides population urbanization plays a more important role than land urbanization. In the process of urbanization, the influential factors of residential housing price varying in metropolis and small cities, therefore development of urban land dominated by local government ought to realize intensification, and land urbanization should be coordinated with population urbanization and city development quality.

開放性與通貨膨脹之間的關係一直是總體經濟學中重要的議題。Romer (1993) 使用 Kydland and Prescott (1977) 和 Barro and Gordan (1983) 的模型進行分析，發現開放性增加會使的降低背離法則的誘因。本篇論文使用 Galvao (2008), Galvao and Montes-Rojas (2009), 和 Harding and Lamarche (2009) 的追蹤資料工具變數分量回歸模型進行分析，同時也以實證分析開放性和犧牲比率之間的關係。在考慮的開放性的內生性之後，我們發現在通膨越高的國家其開放性的影響越大，動態不一致性也越嚴重。 / The relationship between openness and inflation is an important issue in macroeconomics. Romer (1993) uses the models of Kydland and Prescott (1977) and Barro and Gordan (1983) to argue that greater openness will reduce the policymakers' incentive to deviate from the rule. Cukierman, Webb, and Neyapti (1992) and Romer (1993) have an idea that countries with less political stability have a higher probability to violate the pre-committed monetary policies. In addition, as proposed by Romer (1993), the openness may be endogenous when analyzing the relationship between openness and inflation. Thus, we apply instrumental variable quantile regression for panel data proposed by Galvao (2008), Galvao and Montes-Rojas (2009), and Harding and Lamarche (2009) to test whether or not the negative effects of openness is stronger when inflation is higher. We also do the empirical work between openness and the sacrifice ratio to test the mechanism that openness affects inflation established by Romer (1993). After dealing with the potential endogeneity of openness, we find that when the inflation is higher the negative effect of openness is stronger. As the argument of Romer (1993), our empirical results show that the time inconsistency problem is more serious in countries with higher inflation. But our empirical results show that the effect of openness on the sacrifice ratio is positive which is different from the mechanism established by Romer (1993).

經濟理論認為，長期持續的財政赤字將會因貨幣融通而造成通貨膨脹，而且通膨越高的經濟體越容易受到赤字的影響。本文依照Catao and Terrones (2005)的理論模型，以狹義貨幣衡量財政赤字的規模，並據此檢驗1960到2006年間91個國家赤字與通貨膨脹的關係。本文使用Lin (2010)的分量迴歸方法，藉以估計在不同通膨水準下赤字的影響，並且允許兩者之間的動態調整。實證結果發現：當通膨越高，赤字造成的影響將越嚴重；若通膨在低水準，赤字則影響很弱、甚至不會造成任何影響。因此，當通膨越高的時候，維持財政紀律將越能有效達成物價穩定。這層赤字與通膨間關係不會因為考量了其他變數而有所改變。此外，赤字通常在開發中國家影響較強，尤其是在高通膨的時候。最後，在1990到2006年間，卻沒有發現赤字具有任何的通膨效果。 / In economic theory, sustained fiscal deficits might cause inflation by means of money creation, and the economy in a higher inflation level would be more strongly impacted by an increase in deficits. Following the theoretical model of Cat\~{a}o and Terrones (2005), I scaled fiscal deficits by narrow money stock and examined the deficit-inflation relationship in 91 countries from 1960 to 2006. A dynamic panel quantile regression of Lin (2010) was employed, which can estimate the impact of fiscal deficits at various inflation levels and allows for a dynamic adjustment. The empirical results show that fiscal deficits will be more serious as inflation rises, and weakly or not related to inflation if it is at a low level. Therefore, fiscal consolidation would be more effective in price stabilization the higher the inflation. Moreover, the results remain robust while taking other possibly inflation-related factors into consideration. Furthermore, the impact of fiscal deficits on inflation is generally greater in developing countries, particularly when inflation is at a high level. Finally, the inflationary effect of deficits is not detected over 1990--2006.

開放經濟中，匯率可以透過競爭效果及進口型的通貨膨脹抬升價格，或藉由資產負債效果造成通貨緊縮。本文依循 Carranza et al. (2009) 的實證模型，控制美元化程度的影響，並使用Lin (2010) 的動態分量迴歸方法，針對1974Q1-2010Q4期間80個國家，檢驗不同通貨膨脹水準下的匯率轉嫁效果。總體而言，通膨愈高的時候，匯率貶值的擴張效果愈強；但當通膨降低，其強度也隨之減弱。此結果在考慮其他解釋變數或不同貶值情形後仍維持穩健。而當進一步檢視不同國家或期間的匯率轉嫁效果，匯率對通貨膨脹的正向效果，在中低所得國家中普遍較強，但在1995年後減弱，甚至轉為負向。Taylor（2000）的假說，得以在本文大部分的實證結果中證實。 / In an open economy, exchange rate could either increase prices by competitiveness effect and imported inflation, or be disinflationary through the balance-sheet effect. Controlling for the impact induced by the degree of dollarization, I follow the empirical model of Carranza et al. (2009) with a wide panel of 80 countries over 1974Q1-2010Q4. The exchange rate pass-through is investigated at various inflation levels in a dynamic panel quantile analysis suggested by Lin (2010). In general, exchange rate depreciation is more inflationary the higher inflation levels, but the magnitude of pass-through is reduced as inflation become lower. Also, the results are robust with respect to add other explanatory variables or take the depreciation cases into account. Furthermore, to investigate the pass-through across countries or periods, the positive impact of exchange rate on inflation is greater in middle- and low-income countries, but declines and even becomes negative after 1995. The hypothesis in Taylor (2000) is thus confirmed in most part of our empirical results.

本文以1999年第4季至2011年第3季24家銀行的追蹤資料，分析銀行資本與金融控股體系對銀行放款管道的影響。全體樣本銀行的實證結果顯示，沒有顯著證據支持放款管道的存在。銀行淨值及調整成本對放款有顯著的影響，支持銀行資本管道存在。另外，銀行加入金融控股體系之後，調整成本的影響增加。 大型銀行樣本的實證結果顯示，大型銀行放款管道的作用不顯著；但是，銀行資本管道呈現顯著影響。小型銀行放款管道及資本管道皆沒有顯著證據支持兩者存在，但非存款負債對小型銀行放款的影響顯著。除此之外，小型銀行在金融控股體系下，短期投資及非存款負債對放款的影響顯著。由此結果可知，大小型銀行皆可藉由資產負債的調整來抵銷貨幣政策的衝擊，維持放款的成長。

內政部消防署「104年消防白皮書」統計2005年至2014年建築物火災中，以獨立住宅火災最多，工廠火災次之，但工廠火災所造成的損失及使用消防人力、消防車輛數，卻超乎一般建築物甚多，也造成了許多警消及民眾之傷亡，因此有必要將其獨立於建築物火災之外，進行相關之資料分析與研討。 新北市轄區幅員廣闊，以人口數或工廠家數，都是全台灣最多，具有主要交通、消費市場及生產製造多重角色，且各行政區因歷史、環境或文化等因素，嚴然為另一個台灣縮影，與其他縣市相比也較具代表性，因此本研究使用2009至2015年新北市追蹤資料來作迴歸分析，探討消防概念因素(例如:工廠消防檢查次數等4項)、人口及區域概念因素(例如:大學以上教育人口比例等6項)與工廠火災指標【例如:火災發生件數、人員傷(亡)數量、火災件數/列管工廠數量比】關係。 在實證結果內，並扣除掉部分因素可能有內生性影響後，顯示「消防專用蓄水池」、「工廠消防檢查次數」及「老化指數」【(65歲以上年底人口數／0-14歲年底人口數)x100為代表】3項，有影響工廠火災指標。其中消防專用蓄水池與此地區有無發生工廠火災呈負相關，但與老化指數呈正相關。其次發現，消防安檢次數與工廠火災件數呈負相關。最後，工廠火災件數與工廠數量比，和老化指數呈正相關。 / According to the yearly fire report in Taiwan, factory fire has accounted for the highest proportion, and also cause lots of people and firefighters’ casualties. Therefore, it is necessary to separate factory fire from normal building fire cases, and use related data to analyze and discuss independently. New taipei city has a large territory, which including the largest population and highest number of factories in Taiwan, therefore, this study applied New Taipei city panel data from 2009 to 2015 to perform regression analysis,and explore the influence of concept fire factors, population, and conceptual regional factors on the index of factory fire. According to the research, after deducting the suspected endogenous problems, the result shows that fire water reservoir, factory fire safety inspection, and aging index 【(population age number of 65 years above / number of 0-14 years old )X100 】will have influence on factory fire index. Fire water reservoir have an inversely relationship with factory fire within the area, however, the aging index is proportional to factory fire. Second, the increasing number of fire safety inspection will reduce factory fire. finally , the number of factory fire is proportional to the number of factory and aging index.

學習表現為教育社會學中的重要議題，其中城鄉間的學習表現差距受到重視。過去研究認為家庭背景與地區的教育資源是影響學生學習表現的主要因素，然而這些研究缺乏班級因素與同儕效果的分析。因此本研究使用台灣教育長期追蹤資料庫（Taiwan Education Panel Survey, TEPS）在2001年與2003年的國中生樣本，以階層線性模型（Hierarchical Linear Modeling, HLM）分析國一班級同儕學習投入對國三數學表現的影響，學習投入以學生為課業所付出的時間為指標。分析結果發現：(1)學生數學表現的總變異中有24%來自班級因素的影響，76%為學生因素。(2)國三數學表現、個人學習投入與班級同儕學習投入有城鄉差距。(3)在控制其他變項下，個人學習投入、班級同儕學習投入對數學表現有正向效果。(4)班級所在地區的都市化程度透過班級同儕學習投入間接影響國三數學表現。 / Academic performance has been an important topic of research on educational sociology for a long time, while urban-rural differences have been already well documented in literatures. In the past, the literature indicated that the key factors to affecting academic performance are family background and the educational resources. But these researches have ignored the factors of class level and peer effects. In this study, the data are from Taiwan Education Panel Survey (TEPS) in 2001 and 2003, use Hierarchical Linear Modeling (HLM) to assess how peer engagement affects junior high students’ mathematics performance. The time students spend in studying is an index of engagement. The main finding are: (1) This research model accounts for 76% of the variation in student level and for 24% of the class variation in class level with regard to mathematical performance. (2) Students in the urban and rural city show a differences in their mathematics performance, student’s own engagement and peer engagement. (3) When controlling variables, student’s own engagement and peer engagement have positive effect on mathematics performance. (4) Urbanization levels indirectly affect mathematics performance through peer engagement.

近年來國人晚婚、不婚、晚育或不育的現象持續惡化，衍伸出高齡少子化所帶來之人口結構惡化已是國家安全層次議題。本研究以實證方式探討影響台灣地區生育率之主要因素，並著重住宅價格（房價所得比）、住宅交易數量（建物買賣移轉棟數）及存量（自有住宅率）之變化與總生育率之關聯性。探究近年我國房價變化、持有自有住宅比率及住宅市場之交易活絡程度是否會影響家戶單位生育決策。 研究針對西元2002年至西元2015年間台灣地區20縣市共280筆追蹤資料(Panel data)，在控制時間效果下運用傳統最小平方法、固定效果模型及隨機效果模型對資料進行迴歸分析。研究結果顯示：在考慮生育率落後一期情境下，同時控制時間及區域效果模型中發現：房價所得比與總生育率呈現顯著正相關，建物買賣移轉棟數與總生育率呈現顯著負相關，自有住宅率雖與總生育率為正相關但未達顯著水準。而其他影響總生育率之主要變數：女性受高等教育比率及粗結婚率與總生育率成顯著正相關。失業率與總生育率則為顯著負相關。研究結果可發現，可能由於我國高度自有住宅率之特性，房價上漲帶來之財富效果是導致房價所得比與生育率呈現正向關係之成因。建物買賣移轉棟數與總生育率呈現負向關係，研判來自於家戶購屋初期通常需付出一筆為數不小之頭期款，短期間內將耗用家戶較多經濟資源，進而排擠家戶單位短期生育決策。 / In recent years, more and more Taiwanese tend to marry at a later age, or remain unmarried, or bear children at a later age or not at all. The problems of population aging and low birth rate have led to the worsened population structure, which has become an issue of national security. This empirical study investigated the factors that contributed to the present low birth rate in Taiwan. The study emphasized the relationships between housing price to income ratio, the number of housing transferred, homeownership rate and total fertility rate (TFR). This study also tried to investigate how the aforementioned three factors affect the childbearing decision of family units. The study focused on a panel data set with 280 samples that was collected across 20 cities and counties in Taiwan from 2002 to 2015. Ordinary least squares, fixed effects model and random effects model were used, and time effect are controlled in all models. The results showed that, after controlling for the time and regional effects, the housing price to income ratio had a positive relationship with the lag TFR. The number of building transferred had a negative relationship with the lag TFR. The homeownership rate had an insignificant negative relationship with the lag TFR. Other factors also affected the lag TFR. For example, the ratio of females who received higher education and crude marriage rates had a significant positive effect. The unemployment rate had a significant negative relationship with the lag TFR. The results might imply that, given the high homeownership rate in Taiwan, the rise in housing price increase “wealth effect’’ which is the reason for the positive relationship between housing price to income ratio and lag TFR. The reason for the negative relationship between the number of building transferred and lag TFR could be the huge financial burden of down payment when a family purchases a house. This burden takes out a huge portion from the budget, and therefore family units might decide to delay having children for a short period.

觀光產業為現在世界主要產業之一，稱之為「無煙囪產業」，因其汙染少且外部成本相較許多工業產業來的低，許多國家都致力於發展觀光業，投入許多政策吸引觀光客到訪。我國政府近年來也推動許多政策是針對外籍旅客觀光計畫。如民國92年的「觀光客倍增計畫」預期於2008年達成目標，於是在同年於「觀光發展條例」中增訂的「外籍旅客購物退稅」，外籍旅客購物退稅的實施更是發展觀光產業的重要措施之一，觀光產業在觀光較為發達的已開發國家中，都十分重視旅客購物退稅這項措施，臺灣政府於民國92年實施政策至今，經歷了幾次重大改制，本文致力於研究於民國100年7月實施的「現場小額退稅」措施，是否對來臺外籍旅客的消費行為有顯著影響，並對今年實施的新制退稅措施是否再次影響旅客消費意願作出預期。 本研究以外籍旅客國籍及其消費金額之追蹤資料進行迴歸分析，蒐集位於臺北市區的某特定營業人2009年8月至2015年12月的外籍旅客退稅資料，針對來自七個國家及地區的外籍遊客消費行為建立來臺觀光需求模型。以政府實施的「現場小額退稅」措施當作主要的政策變數，並選取幾個影響旅客需求的重要變數為控制變數，建立以旅客總消費量、平均消費量、特定營業人之營業額為因變數的三個模型，觀察政策變數及其他控制變數對於外籍旅客消費行為的影響。 以全體樣本實證結果發現，本政策變動對於旅客總消費量、商店之營業額均有顯著正向影響，對於旅客平均消費量也是正面的影響；本文也將七個國家及地區分別討論，以美國、日本及中國旅客對於政策效果的影響最為顯著且正向，其他國家雖不顯著但多為正向關係。顯見政策的推動確實有助於提升外籍旅客來臺及消費意願，對發展臺灣觀光旅遊產業是一項助益。 / According to UNWTO, tourism industry has experienced continuous growth and become one of the fastest growing economic sectors in the world. Many countries have committed themselves to developing tourism industry nowadays due to lower externality. Taiwanese government also has some implemented plans on tourism industry of which foreigners are allowed to apply for “VAT Refund”, hoping that the increase in international tourist may give the economy a boost. Our study has conducted an empirical analysis on the policy of On-Site Small Amount Tax Refund, which is mainly concentrated in panel data estimation. The purpose of this thesis is to find out the effect of this policy. First, we use Dummy variable as a main variable to capture the influence of the policy. Second, we introduce both the demand factors and the supply factors to explain tourism spending in Taiwan. The span of the data is from August 2009 to December 2015, using Tax Refund data of foreigners from 7 countries and districts. Our empirical analysis show that the Tax Refund policy has had significantly positive effect on both dependent variables, including total consumption and store revenue, especially these from U.S.A., Japan and China. These three countries show the strongest response to the dependent variables. It also shows that implementation of this Tax Refund policy really contributes to our tourism industry by increasing international tourism receipts of Taiwan.