本研究主要探討台北都會區都市蔓延與氣候暖化之關係，實證分析是否都市蔓延的發展形態會造成氣溫的上升。有研究指出台灣的歷年氣溫上升是因為近年來工商業急速發展，人口增加，建築物型態改變，交通運輸量激增等所致。國內外許多研究也發現都市化與氣溫是呈現正相關，而綠地與氣溫呈現負相關。 本研究實證分析部分使用地理資訊系統之內差法和空間分析方法，以及迴歸分析使用panel data之固定效果模型等工具，內插法之結果得到台北都會區年平均氣溫自1996年至2006年約上升1℃，有些地區甚至上升約2℃，且上升之溫度範圍有擴大的趨勢，呈現放射狀的溫度分布，此與都市蔓延之放射狀發展形態類似。使用空間分析方法則證實了一地人口數的增加會造成該地氣溫上升，並且也發現近來人口數多增加在都市外圍地區，這與上述氣溫分布和都市蔓延之放射狀發展形態也相符合。 迴歸分析結果顯示人口數對於氣溫有相當大之正相關，耕地面積對氣溫則呈現負相關，可見得擁有廣大綠地可以降低區域之氣溫，減緩氣候暖化，因此建議政府需檢討當前農地政策，配合環境保護，適合時宜的提出正確之政策。另外在各鄉鎮市區固定效果估計量方面，可以歸納出若一地區有廣大的公園、綠地、或是有河川流域的經過，對於降低當地氣溫有明顯的幫助；時間趨勢之固定效果估計量顯示台北都會區隨著時間的經過，氣溫將持續上升。因此在未來都市規劃方面，規劃者必須了解各地區特性，善加利用其自然環境以調和氣候暖化之影響、多設置公園綠地、多種植綠色植物、在道路周邊行道樹的設置、建築物間風場之設計等。如此將可以降低都市蔓延對氣候暖化的影響，以及防止氣候暖化的發生。 / In this study, we research the relationship between urban sprawl and climate warming in Taipei metropolitan area. Analyze empirically whether the developed shape of urban sprawl causes the climbing of the temperature. Some studies indicate that the reasons why the climate is getting warmer in Taiwan are the high-speed developments of industry and commerce, the increase of population, the changes of the buildings and the huge increase of the traffic volume. Some other studies also find out that there is a positive correlation between the urbanization and the temperature, and there is a negative correlation between the green space and the temperature. The empirical analysis in this study is based on the Interpolation Method and Spatial Analysis of GIS. And the regression analysis is based on the Fixed Effect Model of Panel Data. The yearly average temperature increased about 1℃ to 2℃ in the Taipei metropolitan area from 1996 to 2006. Furthermore, the range of the increasing temperature has been trending up, and it reveals a radial distribution. It is similar to the radial developed shape of urban sprawl. By using Spatial Analysis, we prove that the temperature of an area increases when the population rises. And we find out that the population rises in most of the peri-urban areas. It also answers to the radial developed shape of urban sprawl and the distribution of the temperature as above. The result of using the regression analysis shows that there is a positive correlation between the number of the population and the temperature and is a negative correlation between the farmland areas and the temperature. So that if there is a big green space, it can decrease the temperature in an area, reduce climate warming. For this reason, I suggest that the government should review our current farmland policy, which should be worked with the environmental protection policy, and bring it into practice at the right time right place. From the fixed effect estimation, we concludes that it helps decrease the temperature in an area obviously when there is a big park, big green space or where a river passing through. The time trend of the fixed effect estimation indicates that the climate in the Taipei metropolitan area will be getting warming with time goes by. Therefore, the urban planner should know better of the feature in each area, using the natural environment to accommodate the influence of climate warming. To have more parks, green spaces and plants, plant more trees by the roads, design the wind flow between buildings. Cut down the carbon production by using either way. Thus and so, we can reduce the influence of urban sprawl to climate warming, and also prevent climate warming.

近幾年來，國人自殺死亡率不斷提高，且自殺死亡從1997年起已連續多年列於國人十大死亡原因之一，所以自殺防治工作刻不容緩。本研究採用自殺防治中心在桃園縣六家居家服務單位(龍祥、中國、仁愛、紅十字、家輔及寬福)所做之問卷調查資料，目的在於找出何種特性者，BSRS5 (The Five-Item Brief Symptom Rating Scale)分數及自殺意念分數可能較高。本研究屬於時序性追蹤資料，自民國96年5月份起，由居服人員針對受測對象進行訪談，大約每隔兩週收集一次，總共進行四次。 針對問卷進行基本敘述性統計、單項排名分析以及交叉分析後發現，在人口特質方面，男女性比例相當，年齡層主要皆在65~84歲，教育程度以不識字及國小為主；在BSRS5五題排名方面，以第一題「睡眠困難(難以入睡或早醒)」的平均分數最高，第四題「覺得比不上別人」平均分數最低；由交叉分析的結果發現身體狀況為一個重要的變數，身體狀況差的人BSRS5總分6分以上或自殺意念2分以上明顯較多。 對資料配適廣義估計方程式及Alternating Logistic Regressions的結果，發現在反應變數為BSRS5總分時，女性、身體狀況差及曾經看過精神科者BSRS5分數達到6分以上的可能性較高。若反應變數為自殺意念時，無論是利用廣義估計方程式或Alternating Logistic Regressions，從模型配適的結果發現只有BSRS5的效應顯著。不管利用BSRS5總分或是各題分開來看，BSRS5對自殺意念是一個相當有效的檢測工具，BSRS5分數愈高則自殺意念2分以上的機會也愈高。此外利用多層結構分析方法配適廣義估計方程式，針對BSRS5與受測次數間的關聯性分析，發現與配適傳統unstructured相關性矩陣的估計結果差異不大，但是可以減少許多參數估計，並且在電腦計算時間上是較快速的。 / In Taiwan, suicide has been among the top ten causes of death since 1997, and suicide prevention has thus attracted much attention since. Using the data provided by Taiwan Suicide Prevention Center (TSPC), this study is aimed to find out possible personal characteristics that might have some impacts on the BSRS5 (the Five-Item Brief Symptom Rating Scale) and suicide ideation scores The data come from a longitudinal study in which subjects from six elderly home service centers in Taoyuan County, Taiwan were visited four times between May and July, 2007, about two weeks between each visit. The total number of subjects is 1981. The proportions of male and female are nearly the same, the age range is from 65 to 84, and most of them have only an elementary school degree. Preliminary analyses indicate that among the five items in BSRS5, insomnia (the first item) is ranked the highest, and inferiority (the fourth item) is the lowest. In addition, health status is highly correlated to the BSRS5 and suicide ideation scores, the worse the health status, the higher the BSRS5 and suicide ideation scores. Fitting the data with Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) and Alternating Logistic Regressions models with respect to the BSRS5 score, we further find that female, those who have bad health status, and those who have ever consulted a psychiatrist have higher probability that the BSRS5 score is greater than 6. As far as the suicide ideation score is concerned, the BSRS5 score is the only covariate that is statistically significant, an indication that BSRS5 is a useful tool for screening subjects at risk of committing suicide. While the conclusions stay the same whether the data are analyzed through GEE with commonly used unstructured correlation structure or newly developed multiblock and multilayer correlation structure, the latter approach reduces the computer time significantly.

都市發展固然帶動了經濟成長、生活舒適、交通便利等諸多正面效益，但隨著都市不斷向外發展之成果，卻也帶來了都市內的空間擁擠、交通壅塞、空氣汙染、生活環境惡化等現象，以及都市外的分散、無秩序蔓延發展等環境問題。為解決這些問題，都市規劃者提出大眾運輸導向發展理念。從都市化之觀點來看，發展大眾運輸導向能降低都市蔓延，提昇都市內之使用密度，減少私人運具之使用，進而降低能源消耗、改善空氣品質。然而，運輸建設具有改變土地使用模式與活動區位，進而帶動人口、產業在空間上重新分布的特性；當運輸建設的興建促使周邊都市活動頻繁時，少有研究探討到大眾運輸導向帶來的效益，是否會隨著人口、產業往捷運沿線聚集，反而使交通流量增加，進而造成空氣品質愈加惡化之問題。因此，本研究從捷運營運前後台北市空氣品質變化之觀點，以台北市433個里之1995年至2006年為研究範圍，以懸浮微粒為汙染變數，運用空間分析法和長期追蹤資料實證分析法，探討捷運、人口及產業三者對空氣品質之影響程度。 / 研究結果顯示，人口密度和就業密度對懸浮微粒濃度有顯著正向影響，因此，政府在推廣大眾運輸導向理念，鼓勵人口和產業往捷運沿線發展時，需有完善配套措施，否則將導致反效果－空氣品質的惡化。而有捷運經過之村里對懸浮微粒濃度有顯著正相關；但是分析各年度懸浮微粒可發現，台北市年平均懸浮微粒濃度下降，且隨捷運路網愈加完善，空氣品質愈好。因此，捷運建設雖造成沿線懸浮微粒濃度的上升，但卻降低了整體懸浮微粒濃度，提昇台北市空氣品質。 / Urban development is driven by economic growth, comfortable living, convenient transportation and other positive benefits. However, the results of urban development also brought crowdedness, traffic congestion, air pollution, environment degradation inside the city, and sprawl development out of the city. To solve these problems, urban planners proposed mass transit-oriented development (TOD) concept. From the perspective of urbanization, developing TOD can reduce urban sprawl, enhance the use of space inside the city, and reduce the use of cars. Further, these can decrease energy consumption and improve air quality. However, a transportation system can change the land-use patterns and redistribute the population and industries. Few studies have discussed whether the benefits of TOD will gather people and industries along the mass rapid transit (MRT), where results in the increase in traffic and more deterioration of air quality are inconclusive. Therefore, from the perspective of air quality varies over time in Taipei before and after the operation of MRT, this study uses spatial analysis and panel data analysis to investigate the impact of MRT, population and industry on air quality in 433 villages of Taipei City from 1995 to 2006. / The results show that population density and employment density have significant positive effects on the concentrations of PM10. Thus, when promoting the concept of TOD and encouraging the development of population and industry along the rapid transit, the Government should plan and implement the proper procedure; otherwise they will result in rising air pollution. The villages along the rapid transit have significant positive effects on the concentrations of PM10. However, analysis of the annual PM10 concentration can be found that the annual average has declined in Taipei City; the air quality will be better with a more extensive rapid transit network. Although the construction of transit system will cause the increase in the concentration of PM10 along the rapid transit, it has decreases the overall concentration of PM10 in Taipei City.

本研究探討影響學生學業成就的學校、家庭、學生個人及背景因素，研究中以後設分析的方法計算出許多自變項的效應量大小。本研究的資料取自台灣教育長期追蹤資料庫（TEPS），包括2868名學生在2001年至2007年間接受的四波追蹤調查資料。研究結果發現，學校、家庭、學生個人及背景因素對學業成就之平均效應量具有顯著差異，其中以學生的「先前學業成就」具有最大的效應量，對綜合能力、數學能力及一般分析能力的效應量分別是2.39、1.45和1.90；其次為「背景因素」（效應量分別為.65、.53、.59）；再其次則為「家庭因素」及「學生投入」，但此兩者效應量小，且彼此間無顯著差異；而學校因素的平均效應量最小。最後，本研究針對研究結果提出多項教育實務的建議。 / The purpose of this study is to examine the longitudinal effects of school, family, student, and demographic factors on students’ academic achievement. A method of meta-analysis was used to estimate the magnitude of the effect size of various dependent variables. The data was obtained from Taiwan Education Panel Survey (TEPS). The members of the tracked panel of 2868 high school students were selected as samples for this present research. The tracked panel received four waves of questionnaires and standard tests from 2001 to 2007. The results of the present analysis shows significant differences between the mean effect sizes of the factors associated with academic achievement, and that students’ prior achievement had the largest effect size of 2.39, 1.45, and 1.90, respectively, based on the comprehensive ability score, the general analytic ability score, and the mathematic ability score. The demographic factor showed the second largest mean effect size (.65, .53, .59), larger than that of the family factor and students’ engagement, which both showed small effect without significant differences from each other. And the school factor showed the least mean effect size. In addition, it was found that the mean effect of all the variables based on the comprehensive ability score (.43) was significantly larger than that based on the general analytic ability score and on the mathematic ability score, specifically. Practical implications and suggestions are given in the present research after the general discussion of the research findings.

本文選取六個東南亞國家(泰國、印尼、菲律賓、柬埔寨、越南、馬來西亞)中105家本土以及外資銀行的財報資料，樣本期間為2005年至2013年，唯各國之研究期間不相同，是為不平衡追蹤資料的研究模型。本文期望藉由多元迴歸分析探討兩個問題:(一) 外資銀行占比的提升(下降)對於本土銀行獲利能力的影響；(二)外資銀行之績效是否顯著優於(劣於)本土銀行。 本研究的實證結論可歸納如下：(一)外資銀行的資產占比與本土銀行的資產報酬率(ROA)與股東權益報酬率(ROE)呈顯著負相關，與淨利息收益率(NIM)則呈顯著正相關；(二)外資銀行的淨利息收益率顯著優於本土銀行，資產報酬率和股東權益報酬率皆沒有顯著的差異；(三)在研究外資銀行占比的提升(下降)對於本土銀行獲利能力的影響時，自變數採用外資銀行家數占比結果較採用外資銀行資產占比不顯著。 / Using data from both country and bank level in 6 Southeast Asia Countries from 2005 to 2013, this paper examines the performance of foreign and domestic banks. The structure of data is unbalanced panel data. Our goal is to know whether the share of foreign banks impacts the performance of local banks, and whether foreign banks outperform or underperform local banks. By regression analysis, we conclude that foreign banks asset share is negatively correlated with domestic banks’ ROA and ROE, but positively correlated with domestic banks’ NIM. Furthermore, foreign banks outperform domestic banks in terms of NIM, while there is no significant difference between foreign and domestic banks in terms of ROA and ROE. We also find that when measuring the impact of foreign banks share, foreign banks asset share is more significant than foreign banks number share.

本論文的研究目的，主要是從理論的探討與實證的研究出發，評估國內以香菸稅做為反菸工具時的可行性與適當性。 　　由於近些年來，在反菸團體大力地宣導吸菸有害健康的警訊之下，香菸似乎被貼上了罪惡的標籤，除了對人體健康有直接的危害之外，吸菸行為在醫療資源上的浪費與經濟成本上的損失更是不容忽視的問題。因此，除了一般性的租稅課徵之外，許多的學者都主張應再對香菸課以重稅，以期減少社會大眾的香菸消費量。不過在另一方面，亦有學者指出，目前在探討吸菸行為所引起的疾病成本或外部成本時，都忽略了外在環境的改變與其他因素的影響，而使得菸害成本有被高估的可能，因此反對重課香菸稅。其次，由於香菸稅基本上是屬於銷售稅的性質，因此在課稅之後，勢必會對經濟體系造成若干程度的影響，所以本文在理論探討的部分，除了分析香菸稅的理論依據之外，亦將課稅之後所可能產生的經濟效果做一分析與整理。 　　而在實證研究的部分，本文則利用主計處「個人所得分配調查報告」的原始電腦資料，以橫斷面與虛擬長期追蹤模型資料(pseudo panel data)分別估計國內的香菸需求函數。根據研究的結果顯示，國內的香菸價格彈性在-1.35~-1.56之間，表示當價格上升10%之後，香菸的消費量將減少13.5%~15.6%，可見以香菸稅做為反菸工具的效果相當地顯著。 　　總之，若政府的政策是以維護國民的健康而欲減少國內的香菸消費時，透過對香菸課稅的方式確實能達到「以價制量」的既定目標，而且其政策的效果相當地顯著。不過值得注意的是，香菸稅的課徵，雖然可達成上述的反菸政策效果，但卻也會造成租稅累退與超額負擔的發生；甚至由於菸害成本的高估現象，而使得香菸稅率有偏高的趨劫。因此，政府在訂定香菸稅的政策時，除了考慮價格效果之外，同時也必須平衡其所產生的經濟影響，如此才能訂出適當的稅率以充分反映與矯正外部成本的發生。因此，一個最適香菸稅率的決定，則是未來所必須面對的問題了。

區域發展差異現象一直以來為國家政策所關注，而近年來台灣地區失業率有逐漸上升的趨勢，各縣市之表現亦大相逕庭，顯示各地區存在失業差異現象。過去研究較少以空間觀點觀察失業相關議題，此外，關於區域差異因素對失業率之影響鮮少納入政府規劃因素。因此，本研究以空間自相關分析方法檢測失業是否具有空間相關性及聚集性，並應用長期追蹤資料（panel data）迴歸模型，以人口、產業、所得、都市化程度及政府規劃因素，分析台灣22縣市1988至2008近二十年來各區域差異因素對失業率之影響，藉由實證結果提出相關都市及產業政策之建議。實證結果發現，台灣失業分佈具有一定程度的空間相關性，且高低失業率在各縣市間亦有聚集現象。再者，依固定效果模型實證結果發現人口數、工業及服務業就業者百分比、都市化程度、工業區面積百分比與失業率間呈現顯著正向關係；經濟發展支出百分比與失業率呈現顯著負向關係；區域固定效果，即排除自變數影響下，各縣市本身區域特質對失業率之影響，結果顯示台北縣及桃園縣之係數為負向，南投縣、嘉義縣、台東縣與花蓮縣之係數為正向；時間固定效果方面，大部分年度皆具顯著性，且係數有由負轉正之趨勢，代表特定時間衝擊會對失業率造成影響。 / Differences in regional development have been a focus on national policies. Recently, there is a increasing trend in the unemployment rate in Taiwan, and it also differs from cities and counties, indicating there exists differences in regional unemployment. Previous research rarely combined unemployment issues with spatial perspective. In addition, the effect of regional discrepant factors on the unemployment rate rarely take government planning factors into account. Therefore, this study uses spatial autocorrelation analysis to detect whether unemployment has spatial correlation and aggregation, and applies panel data regression model with population, industry, income, the degree of urbanization, and government planning factors to analyze the effect of regional discrepant factors on the unemployment rate in Taiwan's 22 cities and counties from 1988 to 2008. According to the empirical results, we come up with some urban and industrial policy proposals. Empirical results indicate that the distribution of unemployment in Taiwan has a certain degree of spatial correlation, and high or low unemployment rate also has aggregation among cities and counties. Furthermore, according to the results of the fixed effects model, population, the percentage of industrial and service sector employment, the degree of urbanization, and the percentage of industrial area show a significant positive relationship with unemployment rate. The percentage of expenditures for economic development shows a significant negative relationship with unemployment rate. Region-specific fixed effect, which exclude the influence of independent variables, is the effect of regional characteristics of counties and cities on the unemployment rate. This result shows the coefficient of Taipei County and Taoyuan County is negative, and the coefficient of Nantou County, Chiayi County, Taitung County and Hualien County is positive. As for time-specific fixed effect, almost all years are significant, and the coefficient has the trend from negative to positive, indicating that a particular time impact will affect the unemployment rate.

本研究目的探討：（一）家庭社經地位、父親參與、母親參與對學習成就結構的關係模式；（二）運用多群組樣本測量模式，比較不同家庭社經地位（高、中、低三群組）學生其父親、母親參與對學習成就的關係模式。 本研究採用「結構方程模式」建立上述模式，並採用TEPS 2001「台灣教育長期追蹤資料庫」中9,141位國一學生（只以親生父母親同住子女）及其父親、母親為研究樣本。 本研究歸納出以下結論茲分述如下： 一、 結構方程模式考驗結果顯示「家庭社經地位、父親、母親參與和學習成就模式」與TEPS次級資料達到良好適配，表示家庭社經地位對學習成就具有正相關直接影響效果，同時父親間接參與對學習成就無顯著影響，而母親間接參與則有達到正向顯著影響。 二、 不同社經地位學生，其父親參與對子女學習成就無顯著影響，但母親參與對子女學習成就則呈正相關顯著差異。 三、 「高家庭社經地位學生的父親參與、母親參與對學習成就的關係模式」為良好適配指標，但是父親參與未達顯著性，母親參與程度則達正相關顯著水準。 四、 「中家庭社經地位學生的父親參與、母親參與對學習成就的關係模式」亦為良好適配指標，其中父親參與仍然未達顯著性，母親參與程度則達正相關且顯著水準。 五、 「低家庭社經地位學生的父親參與、母親參與對學習成就的關係模式」適配度指標最佳，但是父親參與仍然未達顯著性，母親參與則依然呈正相關顯著。 最後，依據上述研究發現，就研究結果與研究方法兩方面，將提出相關研究建議以供教育實務上及未來研究之參考。 / The purposes of this study are to explore the effects of mother and father involvement between socioeconomic status（SES）and their children academic achievement. The data of the public released core panel data from the Taiwan Education Panel Survey（TEPS）in 2001 was used. The sample was drawn from TEPS and was constituted by 9,141 adolescents who were seventh graders and lived with their birth parents in 2001. This study explores that what role parental involvement plays between SES and academic achievement, and uses structural equation modeling (SEM) to create a mother and father involvement model that affects academic achievement. In addition, the multi-groups model was used to analyze how the SES affects mother and father involvement and children academic achievement. The results are summarized as follows: 1. The test result of SEM suggested that the proposed “Model of effects of SES/parental involvement on children academic achievement” fit the core panel data well. This showed SES had direct effect on academic achievement and had indirect effect through mother and father involvement. 2. Among all the SES groups, father involvement positively correlated with children’s academic achievement but not significantly. Mother involvement showed positive correlation and significantly. 3. The model of effect of parental involvement in higher SES family fits the data well, but father involvements positively correlated with children academic achievement and not significantly. Mother involvement positively and significantly correlated with children’s academic achievement. 4. The model of effect of parental involvement in middle SES family fits the data well. Father involvement still positively but not significantly correlated with children’s academic achievement; mother involvement positively and significantly correlated with children’s academic achievement. 5. The model of effect of parental involvement in low SES family fits the data best. Father involvement positively correlated with children’s academic achievement but not significantly; mother involvement also positively and significantly correlated with children’s academic achievement. Finally, the study discusses the implications of parental involvement and suggests directions for future research.

人民幣是否可能成為另一個重要的國際貨幣，甚至挑戰美元的國際地位？此即本論文的問題意識。對此，本論文進一步提出三個研究問題：一是如何測量當前的人民幣國際化程度？二是如何測量當前的人民幣資本開放程度？三是資本開放對於人民幣國際化程度的影響為何？ 為此，本研究利用主成分分析（PCA），以建構人民幣國際化程度（CIDI）與人民幣資本帳開放程度（CAOI）。其次再利用動態追蹤資料模型──系統一般動差估計法（SGMM），以檢證各項人民幣綜合競爭力對於貨幣國際化程度的影響。最後，本研究進一步梳理人民幣資本帳開放的進程，並結合上述所有實證分析的結果，進而預估漸進資本開放下人民幣國際化的前景。研究對象包括人民幣在內的33種國際貨幣，研究時間則起自1999年歐元成立，迄於2009年。 本論文的發現三：一是，當前人民幣國際化程度進展相當快速。但截至2009年年底，人民幣國際化程度還很低，遠落後於美元、歐元、日圓，以及英鎊等主要國際貨幣。不僅如此，人民幣國際化程度也遜於俄羅斯盧布、巴西里拉，以及印度盧比等開發中國家所發行的貨幣。 二是，過去10年來，人民幣資本帳開放程度不升反降，截至2009年年底，人民幣的資本帳開放程度維持在零，這表示：人民幣是世界上管制最為嚴格的貨幣。相對而言，美元、歐元、日圓，以及英鎊的資本帳開放程度至少都在70％以上，特別是英鎊的資本帳開放程度更趨近於完全開放。 三是，根據SGMM的實證結果顯示，網路外部性、經濟規模、金融市場規模、貨幣穩定度，以及資本開放程度都是影響貨幣國際化程度的關鍵因素。在此基礎上，本研究利用發生機率（odds ratio），以計算不同資本開放情境下，人民幣成為前10大國際貨幣的可能性。結果顯示，如果人民幣的資本帳開放到73％左右，人民幣便可擠進前10大國際貨幣（發生機率為65.6％）。 不過，這只是最為保守的估計。原因有二：一是，隨者中國經濟實力的崛起，以及人民幣預期升值的脈絡下，國際市場對於人民幣的需求原本就很高。此時，人民幣資本帳如果能適時開放，則人民幣的國際持有將大幅增加。換言之，本研究沒有考量到，各貨幣競爭力因素與資本開放程度之間的加乘效果。 二是，資本開放不僅直接對貨幣國際化程度產生影響，也會透過擴大金融市場規模與網路外部性等其他貨幣競爭力因素，間接對貨幣國際化程度造成影響。這間接效果，本研究也沒有考量到。因此，可以預期的是，只要人民幣資本帳能夠漸進開放，人民幣國際化的前景將比本研究所預估的高出許多。 / This paper discusses whether the Renminbi (RMB) will become an international currency, even challenging to the U.S. dollar. In order to examine above question, this paper take the following three steps: 1. By using principal component analyses (PCA), this paper constructs two indices: currency internationalization degree index (CIDI) and capital account liberalization degree index (CAOI); 2. By using dynamic panel data model-system generalized method of moment (SGMM), this paper analyzes factors affect the CIDI, including economic and trade size, financial system, network externalities, confidence in the currency’s value, and CAOI; 3. According to the PCA and SGMM results, this paper calculates the odds ratio of RMB becoming important international currency. The reserch achieved the following results. First, the degree of internationalization of the RMB progress very fast, but the RMB CIDI is still very low, its CIDI far behinds the dollar, euro, Japanese yen, and pounds. Second, over the past 10 years, RMB CAOI is not increased but decreased. Its CAOI is at zero in 2009, this means that: the RMB is the most stringent controls in the world currency. In contrast, U.S. dollars, euros, yen, and pound CAOI are at least in more than 70%. Third, according to the SGMM results, economic size, financial system, network externalities, confidence in the currency’s value, and CAOI are key factors affect the CIDI. Based on this output, this paper forecasted that if the RMB CAOI is open to about 73%, RMB could be squeezed into the top 10 of the international currency. (The odds ratio is 65.6%) It is noteworthy that this is only the lowest estimates. This is because that this paper did not consider the interaction effects of each currency competitiveness factors and CAOI. Therefore, if RMB CAOI continues open, the prospect of RMB CIDI is much higher than estimated by this paper.

本研究以Plantinga（2010）對退休金基金所提出之績效歸因模型應用於臺灣的壽險公司，並檢定每單位負債下，壽險公司的資產負債配置不匹配是否會影響到公司的投資收益；以及檢定在公司規模及壽險公司負債成本兩因素做為控制變數之下，資產負債不匹配程度是否會影響到壽險公司的投資報酬率的部分，得到以下結果： （一） 在2007年至2012年間，每單位負債下，壽險公司的資產負債配置不匹配會影響到公司的投資收益，且影響為負。 （二） 壽險公司的盈餘資產積極投資報酬率，與其負債成本間有顯著的正向相關；和公司規模間有正向相關；而與資產負債不匹配程度無明顯的相關性。 （三） 壽險公司的名目資產積極投資報酬率，與其資產負債不匹配程度有正向相關，但並不非常顯著；而與公司規模無明顯的相關性；與負債成本相關性之間的關係，亦不是非常顯著。 此研究應用Plantinga（2010）的內部績效衡量的模型，其以每單位負債表示報酬率，更能清楚看出，若在不增加自有資本的前提下，每個績效歸因對公司負債的影響大小，可以做為業界之參考。 關鍵字：資產配置、內部績效、追蹤資料、資產負債不匹配程度 / This research of pension fund is conducted based on Plantinga’s (2010) performance attribution model and applied to insurance companies in Taiwan; The research tested how insurance companies investment return per unit of liability and investment rate of return would be affected would be affected under the circumstance of asset-liability-mismatch based on two variables: company size and cost of capital. The result is shown below: （i） Under unit liability, the asset-liability allocation has negative effect on the return of insurer during 2007 to 2012. （ii） There is a significant positive relationship between insurer’s cost of liability and surplus asset active return rate; positive relationship between insurer’s liability scale and surplus asset active return rate; no significant relationship between asset-liability mismatch level and surplus asset active return rate. （iii） There is a positive but not significant relationship between asset-liability mismatch level and nominal asset active return rate; no significant relationship between insurer’s liability scale and nominal asset active return rate; no significant relationship between insurer’s cost of liability and nominal asset active return rate, either. The research, which is based on Platinga’s (2010) internal performance measurement model, demonstrates the degree of influence on company’s liability disregard of any capital injection. The result can be used as industry reference. Key words：asset-liability allocation, internal performance measurement model, asset-liability mismatch level, panel data