Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Animal Sciences and Industry / Curtis Kastner / The U.S. agriculture industry is diverse and dynamic, plays a vital role in the nation’s economy, and serves as a critical component in providing the global food supply. Agriculture has and always will be susceptible to threats such as pests, disease, and weather, but it is also threatened by intentional acts of agroterrorism. One specific area of concern is foreign animal diseases (FAD) and the danger these diseases create for the U.S. livestock industry. Whether a disease outbreak is intentional or accidental, it could devastate animal agriculture and the food infrastructure and have a lasting impact on state, national, and global economies. One of the most economically devastating diseases that raise fear and anxiety in the livestock industry is foot and mouth disease (FMD). A number of administrative, regulatory, and legislative actions have been implemented at state and federal levels designed to protect the agriculture industry and to prevent, prepare for, and respond to an accidental or intentional introduction of an FAD. However, the consistency, clarity, and long-term commitment of these policy approaches remains in question. Effective policy decisions require a multidisciplinary approach that consider and balance science, economics, social factors, and political realities. A significant number of policy analysis tools exist and have been applied to animal emergency scenarios but few actually address the complexity of these policy dilemmas and provide information to policymakers in a format designed to help them make better decisions. Policy development needs to take a more multidisciplinary approach and better tools are needed to help decision makers determine the best policy choices. This dissertation analyzes three FAD policy dilemmas: mass euthanasia and depopulation, carcass disposal, and vaccination. Policy tools are developed to address the multidisciplinary nature of these issues while providing the information necessary to decision makers in a simple and useful format.

O MERCOSUL e a União Européia (UE) firmaram no ano de 1995, o Acordo Marco de Cooperação Inter-Regional, que tinha como objetivo fortalecer as relações bi-regionais e a preparar as condições para a criação de uma Associação Inter-Regional, que abrangesse a área comercial, cooperação econômica, tecnológica, financeira, e também cultural e social. A concretização da Associação representaria um grande ganho para o MERCOSUL devido à importância comercial que a UE representa para o bloco, sendo a sua principal parceira tanto nas exportações quantos nas importações. Desde a assinatura do acordo, os dois blocos realizaram diversas rodadas de negociações, mas não conseguiram avançar na direção de maiores realizações. Um dos principais entraves tem sido a intransigência da UE, principalmente no que diz respeito ao conceder melhores ofertas no setor agrícola. O presente trabalho objetiva, portanto, analisar a evolução das negociações comerciais entre os dois blocos, a fim de identificar os entraves no setor agrícola, que contribuíram para o impedimento da implantação da Associação Inter-Regional. A evolução das rodadas de negociações entre os dois blocos mostrou que o protecionismo agrícola é um dos pontos cruciais para a obtenção de um acordo de livre comércio. O fracasso das negociações provou para o MERCOSUL, que independemente das negociações acontecerem no plano multilateral ou bilateral, a UE não está disposta em maiores concessões. Portanto, enquanto a UE mantiver as subvenções, responsáveis por enormes excedentes na produção agrícola européia, não será possível a obtenção de melhores resultados, que conduzam a implantação de uma área de livre comércio entre MERCOSUL e União Européia. / MERCOSUR and the European Union (EU) signed in 1995, the Framework Agreement on Inter-Regional Cooperation, which aimed to strengthen bi-regional relations and prepare the conditions for the creation of an Interregional Association, covering the commercial area, economic cooperation, technological, financial and also cultural and social. The concretion of the Association would be a great gain for Mercosur due to the commercial importance that the EU accounts for the block, which is its main partner in both exports and imports. Since signing the agreement, the two blocks had several rounds of negotiations, but failed to move toward greater accomplishments. A major obstacle has been the intransigence of the EU, particularly with regard to grant better offers in the agricultural sector. This paper aims, therefore, to examine developments in trade negotiations between the two blocs, in order to identify the barriers in the agricultural sector, which contributed to impeding the implantation of the Inter-Regional. The evolution of rounds of negotiations between the two blocs has shown that agricultural protectionism is one of the crucial points for achieving a free trade agreement. The failure of the negotiations proved to MERCOSUR, that independently the negotiations occur multilaterally or bilaterally, the EU is not willing to further concessions. So, while the EU maintains subsidies, responsible for huge surpluses on European agricultural production, it is not possible to obtain better results, which conduce to establishment of a free trade area between MERCOSUR and the European Union.

Vor dem Hintergrund der Integration Polens in die Europäische Union (EU) werden in der vorliegenden Arbeit die Auswirkungen verschiedener agrarpolitischer Optionen untersucht. Als mögliche Varianten wurden dabei die Agenda 2000 sowie eine vollständige Liberalisierung der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitk (GAP) ausgewählt. Neben den Politikoptionen werden weitere Parameter variiert, die die Entwicklung der Agrarproduktion und des Handels beeinflußen. Insbesondere werden unterschiedliche Varianten zur Entwicklung der Produktivität im polnischen Agrarsektor simuliert. Die Simulationen erfolgen mittels eines komparativ-statischen, partiellen Gleichgewichtsmodells. Des weiteren wird eine politökonomische Betrachtungsweise unter Nutzung einer Politischen Präferenzfunktion durchgeführt. Die wichtigsten Resultate der Analysen lassen sich wie folgt zusammenfassen: Eine vollständige Liberalisierung der GAP führt bei vorher stark protektionierten Pro-dukten wie Rindfleisch, Milch und Zucker zu Weltmarktpreiserhöhungen. Die Mehrzahl der Erzeuger- und Konsumentenpreise in der EU hingegen sinkt. Es folgt ein starker Rückgang der landwirtschaftlichen Produktion, welcher ein Defizit in der Agrarhandelsbilanz der EU bewirkt. In den Agenda 2000-Szenarien steigt in der EU bei der überwiegenden Zahl der Agrar-güter die Produktion an, auch der Saldo der Agrarhandelsbilanz bleibt positiv. Die Simulation eines EU-Beitritts Polens mit einer vollständigen Liberalisierung führt zu deutlichen Preissenkungen auf den nationalen Märkten. Die Auswirkungen auf die polnische Agrarhandelsbilanz sind stark von der Produktivitätsentwicklung abhängig. Auch ein EU-Beitritt Polens mit der Einführung der Agenda 2000 bedingt Preis-senkungen bei allen landwirtschaftlichen Produkten, mit Ausnahme von Zucker. Doch kann die polnische Agrarhandelsposition eindeutig verbessert werden. Die Ergebnisse zeigen weiterhin die Unterschiede in der Beurteilung einer Politikoption in Abhängigkeit von dem gewählten Bewertungsrahmen. Aus der Berechnung sozialer Wohl-fahrtseffekte lassen sich oftmals keine Aussagen zur tatsächlichen Umsetzbarkeit einer Reform formulieren. Erst die Ergänzung der Analyse um politökonomische Parameter ermöglicht auch Aussagen zur politischen Akzeptanz und Machbarkeit einer Politikoption. / With regard to the approaching accession of Poland to the European Union (EU) this thesis analyzes the effects of different political options on agricultural production and trade. Here the Agenda 2000 and a complete liberalization of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) have been chosen. Furthermore, variations of other important parameters like population, income and different development paths for the productivity in the Polish agricultural sector are included. The simulations are run with a comparative static, partial equilibrium trade model accompanied by a Political Preference Function allowing for insights into the political economy of agricultural policy reform. The main results are as follows: A complete liberalization of the CAP leads to an increase in world market prices for once highly protected products like beef, milk and sugar. Concerning the national prices in the EU a decrease for most products is predicted. This will be followed by a drop in agricultural production and a negative agricultural trade balance for the European Union. The Agenda 2000 scenario shows an increase in the agricultural production and positive trade effects for the EU. The EU-accession of Poland under a fully liberalized policy leads to much lower prices on Polish agricultural markets. Here the production and trade effects are dominated by the development of the productivity in this sector. An EU-integration under the Agenda 2000 will also lower the prices for agricultural products, with the exeption of sugar. The trade situation will be improved. The derived Political Preference Function shows that the calculation of mere welfare effects is not sufficient for an assessment concerning the feasibility of a political reform. Here the additional analysis of the political influence of different interest groups might be a helpful tool.

À la suite des réformes successives de la Politique Agricole Commune (PAC), les soutiens publics par des prix ont diminué au profit de soutiens directs aux revenus agricoles. Cela a exposé les agriculteurs français à une grande volatilité des prix, reconnectés avec les prix mondiaux.Cette thèse mesure l'évolution de la productivité de l'agriculture française dans un modèle dynamique stochastique en intégrant la récente augmentation de la volatilité des prix. Nous étudions le lien dynamique entre le risque de prix, les décisions des agriculteurs et la productivité dans le cadre de l'estimation structurelle. La revue de la littérature présentée dans le chapitre 2 décrit la productivité comme un résidu et souligne les problèmes de mesure des données du capital et le problème de l’endogénéité dans l’estimation primale.Le chapitre 3 compare les méthodes numériques permettant de résoudre et d'estimer les modèles d'équilibre général dynamique stochastique (DSGE) ou de type DSGE, dans lesquels le capital et la productivité sont des variables d'état. Le chapitre 4 estime la productivité dans un modèle dynamique stochastique en utilisant l'approche d'entropie maximale généralisée (GME). Nous trouvons que la croissance de la productivité de l’agriculture française a diminué après la réforme de la PAC, à cause de l'augmentation de la volatilité des prix. En effet, le risque de prix impacte la productivité négativement à travers les choix de production, de consommation, d’investissement et d’emprunt des agriculteurs. Le chapitre 5 simule les impacts de marché des instruments de la P / The EU has adopted many reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in the past decades. Price support has decreased, and decoupled payments have been introduced. As a result, European agricultural prices have become more volatile, in line with world prices.This dissertation measures the evolution of the productivity of French agriculture in a dynamic stochastic farm decision model in the new economic context with increased price volatility. On this basis, it studies the dynamic link between price risk, farmer decisions, and productivity in the structural estimation framework. The literature review in Chapter 2 describes productivity as a residual and emphasizes the measurement issues from the unobserved capital data series and the endogeneity problem in primal estimation.Chapter 3 compares the numerical methods to solve and estimate nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) or DSGE-like models, in which capital and productivity are latent state variables. Chapter 4 estimates productivity in a dynamic stochastic decision model based on the generalized maximum entropy (GME) approach. We show that the productivity growth in French agriculture has slowed down and become more volatile following the rise in price volatility. Overall, price risk has an impact on productivity in the way that when exposed to high risks, farmers change their production, consumption, investment and financial borrowing decisions, which in turn affects the realized productivity negatively. Chapter 5 simulates the market impacts of the CAP instruments in a dynamic GTAP-AGR CGE mode

No description available.

No description available.

Esta dissertação tem como objetivo realizar um estudo da evolução da indústria de máquinas agrícolas em dois mercados diferentes: o mercado norte-americano e o brasileiro. Deseja-se analisar como esta indústria se desenvolveu levando em consideração fatores da estrutura industrial, como também questões relacionadas à política econômica e agrícola. Utilizou-se uma metodologia analítica descritiva, iniciando o trabalho com uma revisão teórica dos fatores industriais e de política agrícola que podem influenciar a indústria e o mercado de máquinas agrícolas. Após tal revisão teórica iniciam-se os estudos das indústrias nos países citados. Primeiramente analisou-se o caso dos Estados Unidos, desde a formação do setor até o atual estágio de desenvolvimento daquele mercado. Os capítulos subsequentes fazem a mesma análise, mas com vistas ao caso brasileiro, dando ênfase na importância que o Estado teve na formação da indústria de máquinas agrícolas e o papel por ele desempenhado para estimular as vendas de tratores e demais máquinas através do crédito agrícola para investimento. Analisou-se a evolução da indústria brasileira desde seu nascimento, seu auge ocorrido durante o período 1960-1980, a crise que enfrentou entre 1980 e 1990, bem como sua posterior recuperação com o início dos anos 2000. As principais conclusões que este trabalho chegou foram que, a evolução desta indústria nos países estudados se deu de forma diferenciada. Enquanto no caso norte-americano o setor se desenvolveu de forma mais autônoma, isto é, sem tanta interferência estatal, no caso brasileiro somente pode-se pensar o desenvolvimento desta indústria levando em consideração a intervenção estatal, tanto por meio de incentivos para a criação da indústria quanto por meio do crédito subsidiado que fomentou as vendas. No caso norte-americano a indústria se desenvolveu através da capacidade inovadora de seus empresários, sem a intervenção direta do governo. Quando esta ocorreu deu-se em termos de políticas agrícolas que, ao sustentar o preço dos produtos agrícolas via política de preços mínimos, induziu os produtores rurais a se tornarem mais produtivos, adotando as novas máquinas existentes. Outra conclusão foi que durante as décadas de 1980-1990 tanto no Brasil quanto nos Estados Unidos o Estado se manteve ausente, tanto em termos setoriais quanto em termos de política agrícola, mesmo período no qual ambos os mercados de máquinas enfrentaram graves crises Tal indústria somente voltaria a se recuperar em 1990, no caso americano, e nos anos 2000 no caso brasileiro. Nos Estados Unidos a recuperação foi acompanhada por uma nova onda de inovações, principalmente com o surgimento da eletrônica embarcada e com a agricultura de precisão. Tal tecnologia chegaria no Brasil por volta dos anos 2000, dando novo ânimo ao setor, juntamente com o novo programa de financiamento lançado pelo governo brasileiro para modernização da frota agrícola, o MODERFROTA, que impulsionou as vendas de máquinas. Em termos mundiais os Estados Unidos consolidaram-se como difusores de progresso técnico e exportadores de máquinas, enquanto o Brasil, ainda que seja um importante produtor entre os países em desenvolvimento, não chega a ultrapassar a marca de 1,1% em relação as exportações mundiais. / This paper aims to conduct a study of the evolution of the agricultural machinery industry in two different markets: the North American market and the Brazilian. Examining how this industry developed taking into account factors of industrial structure, as well as issues related to economic and agricultural policy. This paper used a descriptive analytical methodology, starting work with a theoretical review of industrial and agricultural policy factors that can influence the industry and the market of agricultural machinery. After this literature review begins the study of industries in the countries cited. First was analyzed the case of the United States, since the formation of the sector to the current stage of development of that market. Subsequent chapters did the same analysis, but with a view to the Brazilian case, emphasizing the importance that the State had in shaping the agricultural machinery industry and the role it has played to stimulate sales of tractors and other machines through the agricultural investment credit. Analyzing evolution of the Brazilian industry from its birth, its peak occurred during the period 1960-1980, the crisis that faced between 1980 and 1990 and their subsequent recovery with the early 2000s The main conclusions that this study came were that the evolution of this industry in the countries studied occurred differently. While the American case the industry has developed more autonomously, ie, without much government interference in the Brazilian case the development of this industry was influenced by state intervention, both through the creation of incentives for industry as through subsidized credit that boosted sales. In the American case, the industry developed through the innovative capacity of their business, without the direct intervention of the government. When this occurred was given in terms of agricultural policies, to sustain the price of agricultural products via the minimum price policy, induced farmers to become more productive, adopting the new existing machines. Another conclusion was that during the decades of 1980-1990 both in Brazil and in the United States remained absent from the state, both in terms of sectors and in terms of agricultural policy, the same period in which both markets faced serious crises Such machinery industry only back to recover in 1990, in the American case, and in the 2000s in the Brazilian case. In the United States recovery was accompanied by a new wave of innovation, especially with the emergence of embedded electronics and precision agriculture. Such technology would arrive in Brazil around the 2000s, giving new life to the industry, along with the new financing program launched by the Brazilian government to modernize the agricultural fleet, MODERFROTA, which boosted sales of machines. Globally the United States consolidated as diffusers of technical progress and exporters of machinery, while Brazil, even though it is a major producer among developing countries, does not quite surpass the mark of 1.1% over exports world.

The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in the European Union (EU) is one of the oldest fields of cooperation within the European Union. During the past decades the different Commissioners have made several proposals about changes in the CAP and many of them have not been passed but renegotiated. The present Commission has however published a report in 2011, which emphasizes that the CAP has three alternative ways to go in the future. This study aims to predict which one of these three alternative ways it is most likely that the CAP will take according to the historical institutionalist theory. When to be able to predict this text analysis is used. The analysis tools of the study are collected from the theory, which focuses on the conceptions: critical juncture, feedback effects, path dependency and sequencing. These tools as well as the theory are applied on the empirical material, which mainly consists of books about the earlier reforms and proposals from the Commission, academical journals and some reports. The analysis shows that the Luxembourg compromise can be seen as a critical juncture in the history of the CAP and this led to a path dependency, which is characterized by a decision-making procedure by consensus between the political institutions in the EU. The analysis also shows that most of the reforms regarding the CAP, are made with some sort of compromise or consensus (the Delors I budgetary package, the Mac Sharry reforms and so on). Therefore the conclusion of the study is that, from an historical institutionalist perspective, it is more or less possible for the CAP to go with any of the alternative ways that the Commission points out in the report. It is however most likely that the second way is the most prominent one. This is because that option emphasizes that major overhauls of the policy should be made, that the measures should be more targeted, and that the spending of the CAP should be more efficient. All of these changes have been made more or less during the history of the CAP and the institutional framework therefore allows this way.

Pagrindinis šio darbo tikslas- išsamiai ir kompleksiškai išanalizuoti ES bendrosios žemės ūkio politikos poveikį Lietuvos užsienio prekybai bei jos įgyvendinimo Lietuvos muitinėje teorinius ir praktinius aspektus. Lietuvos narystė ES - atsivėrusi bendroji rinka ir eksporto rėmimas - sudarė prielaidas sparčiam žemės ūkio produktų eksporto augimui, o suaktyvėjusi prekyba ir padidėjusi finansinė parama paspartino šio sektoriaus gamybos plėtrą. Magistro baigiamajame darbe išnagrinėta BŽŪP pagrindinės nuostatos ir instrumentai, žemės ūkio produktų importo ir eksporto reguliavimo tarifinės ir netarifinės priemonės, šių produktų importo ir eksporto pokyčiai Lietuvai įstojus į ES. Lietuvos muitinei tenka svarbus vaidmuo vykdant BŽŪP. Darbe nagrinėjamos muitinės funkcijos, vykdant BŽŪP, jų pasiskirstymas tarp struktūrinių padalinių, bendradarbiavimas su Nacionaline mokėjimo agentūra, vykdant Lietuvos muitinei deleguotas funkcijas, užduočių paskirstymo sistema, kontroliuojant eksportuojamus žemės ūkio produktus, už kuriuos mokamos eksporto subsidijos. Išsamiai išnagrinėta žemės ūkio produktų atranka eksporto kontrolei atlikti, remiantis rizikos analize, fizinių patikrinimų procesas, ūkio subjektų, susijusių su žemės ūkio produktų tarptautine prekyba, komercinės veiklos patikrinimas, reikalingų dokumentų tvarkymas, ataskaitų pateikimas ir bendradarbiavimo įsipareigojimai. Pagrindinės darbo išvados yra susijusios su atliktos užsienio prekybos ir muitinės funkcijų, vykdant BŽŪP, analizės... [to full text] / The main purpose of the work is to analyse the theoretical and practical dimensions of CAP implementation in the Lithuanian Customs and the impact of CAP on the Lithuanian foreign trade in integrated way. Lithuania’s membership in the European Union (EU), the common market with open borders and support for export have created the opportunities for the rapid growth of the export of agricultural products, more active trade and financial support have accelerated the development of the aforementioned manufacturing sector. The main CAP attitudes and measures, tariff and non-tariff instruments of trade regulation and changes in import and export since Lithuania’s entrance into the EU have been examined. The Lithuanian Customs have been assigned an important role in the implementation of CAP. The distribution of functions between the structural subdivisions in implementing the CAP, the cooperation with the National Paying Agency in pursuance of the functions delegated to the Lithuanian Customs, the distribution of tasks in inspecting exported agricultural products entitled to export refunds have been analysed in this work. The selection and export control of agricultural products on the basis of risk analysis, the audit of commercial activities of business entities involved in foreign trade in CAP products, the clearance of documents, submission of reports and obligations of cooperation have been looked into more exhaustively. The main finding of the work is associated with the... [to full text]

Klimato kaitos keliami iššūkiai yra aktualūs ir visuotinai pripažinti. Klimato kaita verčia prisitaikyti netik gyventojus, gamtą, bet verčia atitinkamai pritaikyti ir vykdoma politiką. BŽŪP reformų eigoje iš maisto gamybai skatinti skirtos politikos tapo į vartotojų poreikius bei aplinkosaugą orientuota politika. Kyla klausimas, kokią įtaką klimato kaita daro ES Bendrosios žemės ūkio politikos formavimui ir koks klimato kaitas vaidmuo yra netik dabartinėje BŽŪP, bet ir artimiausioje šios politikos perspektyvoje. Šio magistro baigiamojo darbo tikslas yra įvertinti klimato kaitos vaidmenį ES Bendrojoje žemės ūkio politikoje. Darbe nagrinėjama užsienio ir Lietuvos mokslinė literatūra padėjo suformuoti darbo uždavinius ir įsitikinti darbo temos pasirinkimo pagrįstumu. LR ir ES teisės aktų bei kitų dokumentų analizė leido identifikuoti kovos su klimato kaitos rizikomis instrumentus ir sąlygas jiems atsirasti BŽŪP, o taip pat įvertinti klimato kaitos rizikų teisinį reglamentavimą. Ši literatūros analizė bei Lietuvos ekspertų nuomonės leido patvirtinti iškeltą hipotezę, kad klimato kaita ES Bendrojoje žemės ūkio politikoje vaidina vis didesnį vaidmenį. BŽŪP gali būt tam tikras pagrindas tiek kovojant su klimato kaita, tiek prisitaikant prie jos, tačiau su šiuo ateities iššūkiu susijusių priemonių įgyvendinimas turi būti betarpiškai koordinuojamas su kitomis ES vykdomomis politikos sritimis. / Climate change challenges are relevant and universally accepted. Climate change requires not only accommodation of people and nature, but also it requires the adaptation of policy. During the development of CAP reforms this policy became more oriented towards needs of consumer and environment than addressing promotion of food production. The question is what kind of impact makes climate change to the development of the Common Agricultural Policy of the EU and what role climate change plays not only the current period of the CAP, but in the nearest future of this policy as well. The purpose of this work is to evaluate the role of climate change in the Common Agricultural Policy of the EU. The scientific literature of foreign and Lithuanian authors helped to indicate and set the tasks for this work and to support the validity of the chosen subject. Lithuania and the EU legislation and analysis of other documents allowed to identify the instruments for the fight against risks of climate change and evaluate the conditions for rise of these instruments in the CAP, as well as assessing the risks of climate change in the legal framework. This literature review and expert opinion of Lithuania has confirmed the hypothesis that climate change plays an increasingly important role in the Common Agricultural Policy of the EU. The CAP may be applied to a certain extent in the fight against climate change and adapting to it, but the implementation of the measures related to this... [to full text]