新版巴賽爾資本協定的內部評等法中，銀行可自行對借貸戶進行評分，並且根據 評分估算信用風險以提領準備金，因此估算借貸戶評分分數的違約機率(PD)是相當 重要的一環。過去估算違約機率的研究中，大多假定評分分數為離散型式，本文針對 評分分數為連續形式時，提出一種利用曲線函數來配適估計模型。估計模型是使用伽 瑪的截尾分配去配適ROC曲線函數，再利用此ROC曲線函數來估計各評分分數下的 違約機率P(D|S)，在伽瑪分配中的兩參數則是用兩階段的方法求解。本文所提的估 計方法並無假設評分分數的分配，因此在數值方法中使用不同的分配、參數設定、違 約機率等，來驗證此方法的準確度與穩定度，並且與Van der Burgt (2008)、Tasche(2009)的估計方法比較。 / By the internal rating-based approach of Basel II, banks estimate borrowers' default risks to withdraw reserves independently. Hence, estimating default probability (PD) of borrowers is important. Most of previous studies estimating PD assume that evaluation scores are discrete, In this study, we use curve function to t estimation model in the condition that the evaluation scores are continuous . We use truncated gamma distribution to t ROC curve function. And we use the ROC curve function to estimate PD of dierent scores. And use two-step method to nd the value of two parameters in gamma distribution. The estimation method in this study doesn't assume the distribution of estimation scores,so we use dierent distributions, parameters, and default probabilities to test the accuracy and stability of this method. In the end, we also compare our methods with Van der Burgt (2008) and Tasche (2009)' methods.

>Magister Scientiae - MSc / Bank asset management mainly involves profit maximization through invest- ment in loans giving high returns on loans, investment in securities for reducing risk and providing liquidity needs. In particular, commercial banks grant loans to creditors who pay high interest rates and are not likely to default on their loans. Furthermore, the banks purchase securities with high returns and low risk. In addition, the banks attempt to lower risk by diversifying their asset portfolio. The main categories of assets held by banks are loans, treasuries (bonds issued by the national treasury), reserves and intangible assets. In this mini-thesis, we solve an optimal asset allocation problem in banking under the mean-variance frame work. The dynamics of the different assets are modelled as geometric Brownian motions, and our optimization problem is of the mean- variance type. We assume the Basel II regulations on banking supervision. In this contribution, the bank funds are invested into loans and treasuries with the main objective being to obtain an optimal return on the bank asset port- folio given a certain risk level. There are two main approaches to portfolio optimization, which are the so called martingale method and Hamilton Jacobi Bellman method. We shall follow the latter. As is common in portfolio op- timization problems, we obtain an explicit solution for the value function in the Hamilton Jacobi Bellman equation. Our approach to the portfolio prob- lem is similar to the presentation in the paper [Hojgaard, B., Vigna, E., 2007. Mean-variance portfolio selection and efficient frontier for defined contribution pension schemes. ISSN 1399-2503. On-line version ISSN 1601-7811]. We pro- vide much more detail and we make the application to banking. We illustrate our findings by way of numerical simulations.

The thesis focuses on the operational risk, its identification, measurement and regulatory requirements associated with it. It defines what is the role of internal audit, departments that perform its function and relationship to the organizational structure of the company. Similarly, it is depict the relationship between internal and external audit. These facts are set in the context of operational risk. In the form of comparison are confronted four major banking institutions operating on the Czech market. The aim is to find out how banks manage operational risk, what tools are used for the quantification and how the whole process involve internal audit services and, finally, how they deal with regulatory requirements on capital.

Bank failures during recent years continue to cause stakeholders to question how board and senior management are overseeing and managing Operational Risk. This research evaluated the use of Operational Risk tools by South African banks who have adopted Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA) for management and calculation of Operational Risk capital, based on the Basel II requirements (Bank for International Settlements, 2006). The research was conducted under the assumption that when Operational Risk tools are adopted and used as prescribed by the Basel II Framework, it will lead to enhanced risk management practices and allow banks to identify emerging risks where controls can be designed to mitigate risks from materialising. This study was conducted using a quantitative method – the survey was sent to Operational Risk managers in the main segments of 3 South African AMA banks (ABSA, FIRSTRAND and NEDBANK), and senior managers in the group Operational Risk departments. The study found that Operational Risk tools are used and have been implemented as per Basel II requirements even though there are minor gaps. These tools have also been integrated in day-to-day processes; however there are some improvements required when it comes to a full integration and the use of the tools in the decision making processes. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted

Having the author been involved in banking and finance for almost 25 years, this thesis intends to reflect on the role of banks with emphasis on cross border lending and credit rating, their effectiveness and the impacts of cultural differences. Perhaps this would not differ substantially from a researcher or a scholar, yet the exploratory approach taken in this research will be somewhat different as it deliberately seeks to answer a number of questions relevant to practitioners in today’s banking. In trying to achieve this goal, this thesis hopefully may find its way to international bankers wondering about the perspectives of their business in general and their profession in specific. It even may perhaps improve the understanding of their clients. The Basel committee which published the new Basel II framework on bank regulation and supervision was the result of long and careful discussions, wide consultations and comprehensive impact studies. Whereas Basel II covers the entire risk profile and supervision of financial institutions, this research is limited to the cross border lending by banks to companies and provides the views from both practicing international bankers and their customers on their 3 expectations regarding Basel II, credit rating and the relevance of context and culture differences. Bankers all over the world are being trained on how to read balance sheets, yet less attention is being paid as to by whom they are being created and how precisely these balance sheets came into existence, other than the accountancy standards applied. Bankers furthermore seem to agree on the fact that credit risks in large part are related to the management competencies, effective corporate governance and integrity of management and organization. The argument could be made that the assessment of management capabilities, governance and integrity may be hindered in those cases where the culture is little understood. In a three days conferences titled; “The Future of Relationship Banking”, 80 senior executives from international banks and large companies were gathered in Punta del Este, Uruguay and were asked to speak about these aspects. A transcript of the conference is provided as annex to this thesis (Annex 1) and serves to triangulate the findings of the research. Main findings of three management papers were presented by the researcher during the conference. A survey was performed during the conference and in addition, through an online survey, in total over 100 practitioners in the field participated in the survey. Results show a variation of conclusions, but very especially seem to confirm the view, contrary to the approach taken in Basel II, that cultural differences and context are felt to be highly relevant in cross border lending.

新巴塞爾資本協定(Basel II)之內部評等法(IRB)的運用關鍵，在建立一個有效的信用風險模型，而此模型的功用在於將銀行的風險程度，以量化的風險因子來表達；而本研究即是針對新巴塞爾資本協定，探討在新協定的最低要求(Minimum Requirement)下，銀行欲採用內部評等法(IRB)架構信用風險系統時，應如何建立信用風險模型中「違約機率(PD)」的量化流程。 本篇研究以國內某家金融機構的資料為例，利用羅吉斯迴歸來進行製作信用評分模型，在信用評分模型正確性的指標測試中，不論是在Kolmogorov-Smirnov值、ROC比率、Gini係數的測試上，皆比原此家金融機構在正確性指標測試中更為出色。 最後，更進一步依照該模型所預測之違約機率，建立信用評等，並同時探討不同等級之客戶特性，使金融機構能更有效率地加強其風險控管，進而改善其顧客關係管理系統。

中小企業是台灣經濟貿易發展的命脈，過去以中小企業為主的出口貿易經濟體系，是創造台灣經濟奇蹟的主要動力。隨著2006年底新巴賽爾協定的正式實施，金融機構為符合新協定規範，亦需將中小企業信用評分程序，納入其徵、授信管理系統，以求信用風險評估皆可量化處理。故本研究將資料採礦技術應用於建置中小企業違約風險模型，針對內部評等法中的企業型暴險，根據新協定與金管會的準則，不僅以財務變數為主，也廣泛增加如企業基本特性及總體經濟因子等非財務變數，納入模型作為考慮變數，計算違約機率進而建置一信用評等系統，作為金融機構對於未來新授信戶之風險管理的參考依據。而本研究將以中小企業中製造傳統產業公司為主要的研究對象，建構企業違約風險模型及其信用評等系統，資料的觀察期間為2003至2005年。 本研究分別利用羅吉斯迴歸、類神經網路、和C&R Tree三種方法建立模型並加以評估比較其預測能力。研究結果發現，經評估確立以1:1精細抽樣比例下，使用羅吉斯迴歸技術建模的效果最佳，共選出六個變數作為企業違約機率模型之建模變數。經驗證後，此模型即使應用到不同期間或其他實際資料，仍具有一定的穩定性與預測效力，且符合新巴塞資本協定與金管會的各項規範，表示本研究之信用評等模型，確實能夠在銀行授信流程實務中加以應用。 / To track the development of Taiwan’s economy history, one very important factor that should never be ignored is the role of small enterprise businesses (the SMEs) which has always been played as a main driving force in the growth of Taiwan’s export trade economic system. With the formal implementation of Basel II in the end of 2006, there arises the need in the banking institutions to establish a credit scoring process for the SMEs into their credit evaluation systems in order to conform to the new accords and to quantify the credit risk assessment process. Consequently, in this research we apply data mining techniques to construct the default risk model for the SMEs in accordance to the new accords and the guidelines published by the FSC (the Financial Supervisory Commission). In addition we not only take the financial variables as the core variables but also increase the non- financial variables such as the enterprise basic characteristics and overall economic factors extensively into the default risk model in order to formulate the probability of credit default risk as well as to establish the credit rating system for the enterprise-based at risk for default in the IRB in the second pillars of the Basel II. The data which used in this research is taken from the traditional SMEs industry ranging from the year of 2003 to 2005. We use each of the following three methods, the Logistic Regression, the Neural Network and the C&R Tree, to build the model. Evaluation of the models is carried out using several statistics test results to compare the prediction accuracy of each model. Based on the result of this research under the 1:1 oversampling proportion, we are inclined to adopt the Logistic Regression techniques modeling as our chosen choice of model. There are six variables being selected from the dataset as the final significant variables in the default risk model. After multiple testing of the model, we believe that this model can withstand the testing for its capability of prediction even when applying in a different time frame or on other data set. More importantly this model is in conformity with the Basel II requirements published by the FSC which makes it even more practical in terms of evaluating credit risk default and credit rating system in the banking industry.

This thesis deals with the regulatory rules issued by the so-called. Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. It is an informal organization without legal personality, which operates at the Bank for International Settlements, and her published documents lack legally binding. This work has focused on two areas of activity of the Basel Committee - capital adequacy and corporate governance in the banking sector. Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is a leading authority in the field of banking regulation, which dates back to the mid-70s of the 20th century. The Basel Committee is composed of the governors of the central banks of the member states and organizations and currently represents a major authority in the banking, because the content of the documents of the Basel Committee incorporated into their legal systems for more than 100 countries worldwide. Basel Committee began issuing complex documents capital adequacy in July 1988, when the first document was posted under the abbreviated name of Basel I. Although it was a very imperfect adjustment and largely based on compromises rather than deeper analysis, Basel I meant the first major step towards supranational control of the capital adequacy of banks in order to eliminate the risks arising from their activities. Although, as with other...

Subject of my thesis is a credit risk in the czech banking environment. It consists of five chapters. First one contains description of basic risks banks are exposed to. The next one addresses the credit risk itself and its management, including determination of credit policy and the process of credit granting. Related to this topic is hedging, in broader sense also including provisioning and reserves creation. Third chapter is about credit derivatives, via which the credit risk can be reduced. Closely related to this topic is a securitisation process and it's products. Fourth chapter deals with regulation, which is an essential part of the banking sector nowadays. I focus primarily on Basel II and its credit risk part. In the final chapter I describe credit risk management of one of the biggest czech banks, Ceska sporitelna, which granted most credits in 2010.

首先針對目前國內產物保險公司有關作業險管理尚未有完整之監理規範或管理實務，但是，因作業風險所導致之損失金額卻與日俱增，實為不可忽視之風險，故藉由探討產物保險公司建構作業風險管理機制，同時分析其中理論與實務之運作，盼能有助於國內產物保險公司在未來不論是主管機關的監理制度，或是與全世界風險管理趨勢的結合上，提供具有參考性之建議及方向作為研究的目的設定。 本研究透過文獻回顧及探討，對於國內外金融機構作業風險管理執行情況，可知作業風險管理與內部控制之關係應是互補的概念，不能單以內部控制取代作業風險控管，而唯有作業風險與內部控制相互充實，才能更能提昇作業風險管理之功能及能力。另對於產物保險相關之作業風險損失事件之收集彙整，瞭解作業風險損失可能產生重大的財務損失，或是影響公司之正常業務營運，由於作業風險與產險公司日常營運活動息息相關，且作業風險管理並非一全新之風險管理觀念，面對產險市場瞬息萬變，主管機關監理強度趨於嚴格，包括頒布保險業之風險管理實務守則，內容規範即可看出作業風險以結構化之管理，已成為潮流。如何透過管理流程，及輔以各項管理工具，與現行之內控、法令遵循等機制加以整合，將過去的被動轉換為主動的管理，不論是發生頻率低、損失幅度高的事件，或是發生頻率高、損失幅度低的事件，皆應平等重視。 個案研究則以作業風險管理之理論為基礎，逐一探討研究之標竿保險公司作業風險管理執行情形，可以得到下列四個結論：(一)落實風險管理之企業文化是關鍵成功因素、（二）作業風險管理專責單位或人員的建立應是有必要性、（三）建立完整之作業風險管理架構、（四）作業風險管理與內部控制制度是互補的、（五）無缺失不代表無風險。本研究最後提出以下建議：（一）師法目前Basel II銀行之作業風險管理經驗、（二）積極專業人才培訓是作業風險管理之成功要件、 (三)保險業者應儘速建立內、外部損失資料庫、(四)應設置隸屬董事會之風險管理委員會、(五)法令遵循自行評估之調整。以作為未來台灣產險業如何建制作業風險管理機制及有效控管作業風險之參考。 / Despite of the increasing exposure and loss due to operational risk to Taiwanese Non-Life insurance companies, an intergrated coorporate self-regulation or practical guidelines for operational risk management within financial institutions have not yet been developed. Therefore, through seriously study, discuss, and analyze the mechnisms on how to implement a thorough corporate operational risk management guidelines and a balanced operational point between theory and practice, I hope that this paper could give our local non-life financial institutes, regulators, and compliances some aspects on the regulatory governence development. Numerous articles and literature reviews on foreign and domestic businsses and financial institutions regarding operational risk management operations stated that interal control and operational risk management have substitutional effect. Therefore, only if both interal control and operational risk management simutaneously develop, will operational risk management’s functionality and ability be most effective. Massive information on opertaional risk loss event have been collected and compiled to study its impact to Non-life insurance companies, including the loss it may bring to the financial institution or the effect on daily business operation. Driven by legal changes and forever-changing business market, the local goverment have becoming tougher on regulatory governance, including promulgate the code of practice for operational risk management guildance, which we would see that structured operation risk management is the newfound trend. The intergration of current compliance, internal control and other mechanisms through management process in order for operational risk management corresponds to a much wider trend of “responsive” or “active”, not “passive” management is what we ought to act on. Also, we should treat low-frequency, high-magnitude events and high-frequency, how-magnitude events equally. This paper came up with five conclusions 1. implementing the enterprise culture of operational risk management is the key to success. 2. developing operational risk management response team is an ought to do 3. implementing thorough operational risk management structure 4. substitutional effect among operational risk management and internal control system 5. no merit does not mean no risk. At last, this conceptual paper gives some recommendations for future operational risk management development 1. take operational risk management experiences by Basel II as a model 2. cultivate ORM professionals actively is the key to success 3. develop internal and external risk loss database 4. The risk management committee should be subordinate to the board of director 5. adjustment of compliance’s interal accessment.