Bitcoin is a digital currency that is used by people all around the world. The goal of this paper is to give an idea about how much trust there is in bitcoin among its users. This paper has used an online survey aimed at bitcoinusers and a content analysis to collect data about this trust. The conclusions show that there seems to be some trust in bitcoin as a technology and this is based on that the users have a good understanding about how bitcoin works. They also share their knowledge about bitcoin to people around them. The trust between people in the bitcoin network on the contrary doesn’t seem as high because certain technological properties hurt this trust. The survey showed that only a small percentage of the users started to use bitcoin to buy and sell products, which may indicate a lower degree of trust in other people.

This thesis is one in a group of several theses that are researching different subjects in the development of a new cryptocurrency. For a few years now, the cryptocurrency market has grown dramatically, in the lead of the original cryptocurrency Bitcoin. Today, most cryptocurrencies' validation-technology, including Bitcoin's, are based on Proof-of-Work (PoW), i.e., a system where transaction validation is made by servers calculating mathematical problems. PoW results in high energy consumption and slow transaction speed. In this cryptocurrency, the validation mechanism will build on a technology called Proof-of-Stake (PoS). PoS does not yield as high energy consumption and often leads to faster transaction speed. The specific technique for validation in this system is that validators bet their coins to validate transactions and get rewards in the form of transaction fees if they end up conforming the transactions that reach consensus among the validators. In particular, the purpose of this report is to research the risk and reward for validators in the betting process and from this develop a reward policy which yields a fast and secure validation. The methods used for solving the problems are simulations based on Monte Carlo methods. From the simulations, the results are discussed and compared. Also, this report will cover economic theories behind cryptocurrencies, mainly focusing on monetary policy and the transaction markets. The findings of this report are several risk functions for different topologies and winning conditions considered during the development of the cryptocurrency. Further, a conclusion was that the expected value of profit for validators need to be constant, independent of when the bets are made with regard to previous bets. From this, a reward function which distributes rewards between winning validators was formed. Another, economical conclusion from this was that, in the long run, the expected value of profit of betting should converge to zero due to a perfect competition market. / Denna kandidatuppsats är en av era uppsatser som analyserar olika områden i utvecklingen av en ny kryptovaluta. Under de senaste åren har kryptovalutamarknaden vuxit dramatiskt, där Bitcoin har varit ledande. Idag bygger de flesta kryptovalutors valideringsteknik, inklusive Bitcoins, på Proof-of-Work (PoW), d.v.s. ett system där transaktionsvalideringen görs av servrar som beräknar komplicerade matematiska problem. Detta resulterar i en hög energiförbrukning och i många fall långsamma transaktionshastigheter. I denna kryptovaluta kommer valideringsmekanismen baseras på en teknik som kallas Proof-of-Stake (PoS) vilket leder till en substantiellt lägre energiförbrukning och högre transaktionshastigheter. Tekniken för valideringen i det här systemet är baserat på att validerare i systemet satsar sina egna mynt för att validera transaktioner och får belöningar i form av transaktionsavgifter om de validerar den transaktion som når konsensus i blockkedjan. I synnerhet är syftet med rapporten att formulera riskerna och de möjliga belöningarna för validerare i bettingprocessen och därmed hitta ett belöningssystem som leder till en snabb och säker kryptovaluta när det gäller validering. De metoder som används för att lösa problemen är simuleringar baserade på Monte Carlo metoder. Slutresultatet av denna rapport är era riskfunktioner för olika topologier och villkor för de vinnande validerarna, beräkningar för väntevärde och belöningsfunktioner för validering. Vidare har slutsatsen dragits att väntevärdet av att göra ett bet måste vara konstant med avseende på när bettet görs. Från detta togs en belöningsfunktion fram som fördelar belöningar mellan vinnande validerare. En annan, ekonomisk slutsats, var att i det långa loppet kommer väntevärdet av vinsten för att betta konvergera till noll på grund av att en perfekt konkurrensmarknad antas.

In this paper, the price fluctuations of Bitcoin under speculative environment is studied. It has been seen that the market trend points out an existence of a speculative bubble. Over the course of the period from 2014 to 2018, the trend in price movements of bitcoin has proved to be strongly speculative. In that regard, investors might be curious about what drivers might be instrumental in these speculative price changes.  After reviewing of NPV, it was seen that NPV is not applicable to the case of cryptocurrencies due to their nature and lack of free cash flows to base the asset valuation to some fundamental facts. Later, LPPL model is reviewed, however, that also proved to be insufficient since it does not reflect the investor speculations and inform much about price dynamics regarding behavioral finance principles. Then, some papers from the past price fluctuations of bitcoin (for the period from 2010 to 2013) was reviewed and three key variables were determined which might explain price movements. Public interest towards Bitcoin as interest-driven, regulatory and political news about cryptocurrencies as event-driven and VIX as overall investor approach to Bitcoin market have been taken. After running regressions, the only significant variable happened to be public interest and popularity of Bitcoin. Although, for some cases, VIX variable also explain price fluctuations for some intervals, in none of the cases event-driven variable has long- terms effect on price fluctuations under speculative environment. Lastly, a robustness test is also handled considering the “weekend effect” and it has been seen public interest variable again proved to be a significant price determinant.

Bitcoin's decentralized nature enables reasonably anonymous exchange of money outside of the authorities' control. This has led to Bitcoin being popular for various illegal activities, including scams, ransomware attacks, money laundering, black markets, etc.  In this thesis, we characterize this landscape, providing insights into similarities and differences in the use of Bitcoin for such activities.  Our analysis and the derived insights contributes to the understanding of Bitcoin transactions associated with illegal activities through three main aspects. First, it offers a comprehensive characterization of money flows to and from Bitcoin addresses linked to different abuse categories, revealing variations in flow patterns and success rates. Second, a temporal analysis captures long-term trends and weekly patterns across categories. Finally, an analysis of outflow from reported addresses uncovers differences in graph properties and flow patterns among illicit addresses and between abuse categories. These findings provide valuable insights into the distribution, temporal dynamics, and interconnections within various categories of Bitcoin transactions related to illicit activities.

No description available.

This paper examines the potential of Bitcoin, a decentralized digital currency, to pose competition to fiat currencies. To accomplish that, Bitcoin would have to become efficient as a store of value. Thus far, high volatility makes it inferior in that respect. We analyze the dynamics and drivers of Bitcoin volatility using GARCH and HAR models. Moreover, we test for presence of asymmetries displayed by stock, commodity and currency markets. That way we can conclude, whether volatility of Bitcoin behaves similarly to currencies, commodities or stocks. Lastly we reveal interconnections between these markets and market for Bitcoin. We find significant evidence for the leverage effect documented for stock market. Furthermore, the effect of trading volume, documented for currency markets, displays an opposite sign in our research. Results of spillover estimation suggest Bitcoin is the most interconnected with commodity market. Thus, we conclude Bitcoin does not behave similarly to currencies in terms of volatility; hence is not a good candidate to substitute them. JEL Classification E1, G1, G2, O3 Keywords Bitcoin, volatility, GARCH, leverage effect Author's e-mail 24805288@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's e-mail dedek@fsv.cuni.cz

Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management University Of Witwatersrand 07 September 2016 / The purpose of this study is to identify whether the Law of One Price theory holds across bitcoin exchanges in different countries given the uniquely defining characteristics of bitcoin. This was explored using Johansen’s Cointegration to extract the economic relationship between the time series sampled. It was demonstrated in the results that the Law does not always hold, however this was dependent on which bitcoin exchange is being used. Prices across the same bitcoin exchanges were likely to hold because of similar transaction costs and the ease of trading. For the time series where the Law of One price did not hold, the explanatory factors could include the bitcoin market illiquidity and purposeful disequilibrium. Bitcoin is a fairly new concept and has been press-worthy in the finance, economic and technological spheres. In South Africa, awareness of the digital currency is low, as is an understanding of its features and the impact on the economy as well as society as a whole. This study therefore aims to explore bitcoin in a finance context, in terms of the Law of One Price, while briefly gaining an understanding of the digital currency itself. / MT2017

Bitcoin is a new evolutionary development within the internet and payment system. Its price has a high volatile nature what brings a lot of attention to this cryptocurrency. This paper investigates the price formation of the Bitcoin by looking at three determinants: speculative position, transaction volume and the utility users obtain from joining the network. To see the correlation between these determinants and the influence it has on the Bitcoin price a multiple regression model has been built over the time period from 2017 to 2019.  The model shows that the effect of speculation is heavier than any other variable, reflecting the uncertainty brought by the sensible sentiment of speculators and users.

Thesis advisor: Vyacheslav Fos / In the first essay, I examine the role of cross-listings in the digital token marketplace ecosystem. Using a unique set of publicly available and hand-collected data from 3,625 tokens traded in 108 marketplaces, I find significant increases in price and trading activity around the date of a token’s first cross-listing. Tokens earn a 49% raw cumulative return in the two weeks around the cross-listing date. Global token-trading volume is almost 50 times higher after cross-listing. Using the uniquely heterogeneous characteristics of token marketplaces, I am able to identify specific value-creation channels. I provide the first evidence supporting value creation through network externalities proposed by recent token-valuation models. Consistent with equity cross-listing theory, I find higher returns for cross-listings that reduce market segmentation and improve information production. In the second essay, we analyze a dataset of 4,003 executed and planned ICOs, which raised a total of $12 billion in capital, nearly all since January 2017. We find evidence of significant ICO underpricing, with average returns of 179% from the ICO price to the first day’s opening market price, over a holding period that averages just 16 days. After trading begins, tokens continue to appreciate in price, generating average buy-and-hold abnormal returns of 48% in the first 30 trading days. We also study the determinants of ICO underpricing and relate cryptocurrency prices to Twitter followers and activity. In the third essay, I examine reputation building by activist hedge funds and document two new findings with regard to hostile activism. First, there is evidence of a permanent reputation effect to hostile activism. Activist hedge funds that have engaged in hostile tactics, receive on average a 3% higher CAR [-10,+10] on their subsequent non-hostile campaigns, compared to hedge funds that have never engaged in hostile tactics. This abnormal return is positively correlated with the level of hostile reputation of the campaigning hedge fund. Second, I find that activist hedge funds with more hostile reputation modify their non-hostile activism style to engage “hostile-like” targets and pursue “hostile-like” objectives, but withhold the use of hostile tactics. These findings imply that hedge funds are able to build reputation using their past engagement tactics and that market participants value such reputation as evidenced by the higher announcement return observed in their targets. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2019. / Submitted to: Boston College. Carroll School of Management. / Discipline: Finance.

Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Ciências Sociais, Departamento de Sociologia, 2018. / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq), Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) e Fundação de Apoio à Pesquisa do Distrito Federal (FAP-DF). / Buscando analisar o dinheiro como relação social nas sociedades que têm no capitalismo seu modo de reprodução, organização e gestão da vida socioprodutivas, a presente tese aborda os encadeamentos entre dinheiro, Estado e poder social na conjuntura presente. Para tanto, lança mão de um estudo interdisciplinar e multidimensional, tomando como caso ilustrativo os novos fenômenos monetários, como as criptomoedas e, em particular, o Bitcoin. Objetivando superar os problemas e limitações dos paradigmas dominantes nas ciências sociais e econômica sobre o dinheiro, bem como a divisão do trabalho intelectual operante entre esses, questionamo-nos: no contexto do capitalismo neoliberal e financeirizado, de que modo a teoria (marxista) do dinheiro nos ajuda a entender fenômenos monetários como o Bitcoin e, na volta, como a análise de um objeto como o Bitcoin nos permite (re) pensar o que é (teoricamente) entendido por dinheiro? Em meio a este esforço, o estudo procede inicialmente a uma pesquisa teórica, resgatando, para tanto, os debates em torno da natureza do dinheiro, assim como do Estado e da ideologia – a partir dos elos de correspondências entre tais dimensões – nos trabalhos de Karl Marx e de marxistas subsequentes, com especial dedicação às contribuições contemporâneas. Em seguida, parte-se para uma análise abrangente do Bitcoin como artefato técnico e monetário, incluindo sua economia política, antecedentes históricos, ideias-força e condições de possibilidade. Vê-se, assim, que, assentado na utopia tecnocrática de um dinheiro apolítico, o Bitcoin pode ser compreendido como um paradoxal “filho rebelde” do neoliberalismo – o que serve para nos revelar seu conteúdo ideológico. No entanto, é incapaz de se estabelecer enquanto alternativa ao sistema monetário vigente por não cumprir requisitos elementares do dinheiro, menosprezados pela ideologia de matriz liberal que o sustenta. A despeito de sua busca manifesta por uma substituição do dinheiro mundial, por estabilidade monetária contra a suposta “instabilidade” do dinheiro estatal e pela “despolitização”, descentralização e desconcentração do poder de emissão e gestão monetárias, o que se observa empiricamente é justamente o oposto: baixo volume e alcance de circulação, grande instabilidade frente ao dinheiro estatal e maior concentração relativa de poder político e econômico entre seus usuários. Finalizado o percurso de investigação, o não cumprimento das aspirações neoliberais que constituem o Bitcoin evidenciam que a tentativa, pretendida por seus criadores e entusiastas, de se esvaziar de conteúdo social, i.e., neutralizar, o dinheiro no capitalismo não é factível. / Seeking to analyze money as a social relation in capitalist societies, the present dissertation approaches the intersections between money, state and social power in the present conjuncture. To this end, it proceeds to an interdisciplinary and multidimensional study, taking as illustrative case the new monetary phenomena, such as the cryptocurrencies and, in particular, Bitcoin. In order to overcome the problems and limitations of the dominant paradigms in economics and social sciences about money, as well as the division of the intellectual labour among them, we ask: in the context of neoliberal and financialised capitalism, how (Marxist) theory of money helps us to understand monetary phenomena like Bitcoin, and on the way back, how does the analysis of an object like Bitcoin allow us to (re) think what is (theoretically) understood by money? In the midst of this effort, the study initially proceeds to a theoretical research, thereby rescuing the debates around the nature of money, as well as the state and ideology – from the correspondences between such dimensions – in the work of Karl Marx and subsequent marxists, with a particular dedication to contemporary contributions. It then moves on to a comprehensive analysis of Bitcoin as a technical and monetary artefact, including its political economy, historical background, strength ideas, and conditions of possibility. It is thus seen that, based on the technocratic utopia of apolitical money, Bitcoin can be understood as a paradoxical “rebellious son” of neoliberalism – which serves to reveal its ideological content. However, it is unable to establish itself as an alternative to the current monetary system because it does not meet elementary requirements of money, despised by the neoliberal ideology that sustains it. Despite its declared search for a substitution of world money, for monetary stability against the supposed “inflationary” state money and for “depoliticization”, decentralization and deconcentration of monetary power, what is empirically observed is precisely the opposite: low volume and range of circulation, great instability against state money and greater relative concentration of political and economic power among its users. At the end, the non-fulfilment of the neoliberal aspirations of Bitcoin shows that the attempt by its creators and enthusiasts of emptying money of its social content, i.e., to “neutralize” it, in capitalism, is not feasible. / Cette thèse analyse l’argent comme rapport social dans le capitalisme en tant que mode de reproduction, organisation et gestion de la vie socio-productive, en saisissant les enchaînements entre les concepts d’argent, d’Etat et de pouvoir social, dans la conjuncture actuelle. Elle présente une discussion interdisciplinaire et multidimensionnelle, en prenant comme étude de cas les nouveaux phénomènes monétaires des cryptomonnaies, en particulier, le Bitcoin. Afin de surmonter les problèmes et les limites des paradigmes dominants en sciences sociales et économiques sur l’argent, ainsi que la division du travail intellectuel entre eux, nous nous demandons, dans le contexte du capitalisme néolibéral et de la financiarisation, comment la théorie marxiste de l’argent aide à comprendre les phénomènes monétaires tels que le Bitcoin, et comment l’analyse d’un tel objet permet de penser l’argent théoriquement ? Dans cet effort, l’étude fait d’abord une recherche théorique, en reprenant les débats sur la nature de l’argent, ainsi que de l’État et de l’idéologie dans les oeuvre de Karl Marx et des marxistes subséquents, avec un intérêt spécial dans les contributions contemporaines. Ensuite, il procède à une analyse holistique du Bitcoin comme un artefact monétaire et technique, son économie politique, son contexte historique, et les idées et conditions de possibilité de son existence. En ce faisant, la thèse montre que le Bitcoin repose sur l’utopie technocratique d’un argent apolitique, pouvant être compris comme un paradoxal « fils rebelle » du néolibéralisme – utile à révéler son contenu idéologique. Cependant, il ne peut pas se présenter comme une alternative au système monétaire en vigueur, puisqu’il ne satisfait pas les príncipes élémentaires de l’argent, príncipes méprisés par l’idéologie neolibérale qui le soutient. Malgré avoir l’intention de remplacer la monnaie mondiale, garantissant la stabilité monétaire en opposition à ce qu’ils pensent être l’instabilité de l’argent de l’Etat; ainsi que de prendre position en faveur de la «des-politisation», la décentralisation et la déconcentration des émissions monétaires et de sa gestion, ce qu’on observe empiriquement est précisément l’opposé: faible volume et circulation, gros instabilité par rapport à l’argent de l'Etat et une plus grande concentration relative du pouvoir politique et économique. La conclusion, à la fin, montre le non-respect du Bitcoin aux aspirations néolibérales, montrant l’échec de la tentative de renoncer au contenu social de la monnaie et de la rendre « neutre », tel que le souhaitent ses enthousiastes.