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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
961

Les aventures sonores : d’une éthique à une esthétique, par les gestes et concepts des labyrinthes de l’imagination

Sablich, Mirko 08 1900 (has links)
La version intégrale de ce mémoire est disponible uniquement pour consultation individuelle à la Bibliothèque de musique de l’Université de Montréal (http://www.bib.umontreal.ca/MU). / Ce mémoire présente les composantes et les résultats des applications d’une démarche de composition musicale basée sur deux approches à la fois complémentaires et indépendantes. L’une concerne une éthique de travail compositionnel qui conduit à de possibles esthétiques sonores, à travers les expérimentations, les questionnements et les observations et recherches des origines d’une pièce. L'autre se rapporte à l'esprit et à l'imagination, à des domaines connexes ou stimuli et à des gestes et concepts proprement musicaux. Les composantes des approches se présentent récursivement et simultanément et tissent un réseau de relations imprévues, chaotiques et ambiguës. Tout au long du processus, l’intuition, contemplative et modératrice, façonne une essence sonore. Deux pièces analysées font preuve des résultats de ces approches. / This thesis presents an approach to music composition based on two processes, which are both complementary and independent of each other, and their application to a musical work. The first process is based on a creative work ethic that involves observation, research of the origins of a piece of music, questioning and experimentation, which ultimately lends itself to create a certain aesthetic. The second process is based on the mind, the imagination, related domains or stimuli, and on musical gestures and concepts. The elements of these two processes can exist simultaneously, and can occur recursively creating a chaotic and ambiguous network of relationships. In this approach, intuition, contemplative and moderate, plays a primordial role in molding the essence of a musical work. Two musical pieces illustrate the validity of such an approach.
962

Déclinaisons, inclinations et déclins de la "Relation" dans l'espace Afrique-Caraïbes-Pacifique. La pensée d'Edouard Glissant et l'approche comparatiste de la littérature / Relationships in the Africa-Caribbean-Pacific setting : declensions, inclinations and decline The thought of Edouard Glissant and the comparatist approach in literatures

Sooriamoorthy, Anouchka 29 June 2012 (has links)
Ce travail tente d’établir, à partir de la pensée et de la vision que développe Edouard Glissant dans ses essais, une nouvelle approche, ou du moins une approche différente de la littérature comparée. Cette approche a pour fondement les concepts clés tels que le chaos-monde, le tout-monde, la créolisation et l’opacité. La relation surgit de ce que Glissant nomme le chaos-monde, cette rencontre, ce choc de cultures toujours à l’oeuvre dans notre monde. Cette confrontation, ce contact avec l’autre ne peut que produire de la relation. Nous vivons depuis toujours, et aujourd’hui bien plus que jamais, dans un espace pluriel caractérisé par la participation-confrontation, selon des modes variés, hétérogènes, voire conflictuels, de multiples cultures; quand bien même nous n’aurions jamais vu ces autres peuples, le fait d’avoir connaissance de leur existence contraint toujours déjà et nécessairement à l’instauration d’une relation. Cette relation, qui, chez Glissant, est avant tout à l’oeuvre dans le monde des hommes, comporte tous les éléments d’une approche comparatiste en littérature : mettre en relation des ouvrages différents mais néanmoins équivalents, analyser un ouvrage en gardant à l’esprit la multiplicité d’oeuvres existantes, comparer tout en respectant les différences propres à chaque oeuvre, telle est, semble-t-il, la tâche du comparatiste. Il s’agit, à partir du chaos-monde perçu comme confrontation de tous les ouvrages de notre corpus, de révéler une relation au sens glissantien du terme. Les termes de déclinaisons, inclinations et déclins nous engagent dans la description des trajets de lectures en montrant autant les capacités que les limites de cette approche. / Building on the theory developed by Edouard Glissant in his essays, this work attempts to draw up a different approach for the analysis of compared literature. This method is based on the key concepts developed by Glissant. All relationships are the offsprings of what Glissant calls the chaos-world, which is this encounter, this clash of cultures constantly at work in our world. This confrontation with the other cannot but give rise to relationship. Since time immemorial, we’ve been living and today we, more than ever, live in a plural setting, the defining characteristic of which is the cooperation and confrontation of multiple cultures on varied, heterogeneous and even conflictual modes; even if we have not seen these people who are so different and come into direct contact with their cultures as such, the very fact that we know of their existence always compels us to start some kind of relationship. In the works of Glissant, this relationship, which is at work in the world of human beings, comprises all the required elements for a comparative approach in the field of literature. Indeed, it would seem that the task of the comparatist consists in bringing together different but comparable works, in analyzing a piece of work while having in mind the multiplicity of works existing at the same time, and in comparing everything whilst respecting the differences exclusive to each work. Starting from the chaos-world perceived as a confrontation between all the works of our corpus, the whole point for us is to lay bare a relationship the way Glissant understands it. The concepts of declension, inclination and decline commit us to a description of reading journeys during which we show the scope as well as the limitations of this approach.
963

Perturbações em sistemas com variabilidade da dimensão instável transversal

Pereira, Rodrigo Frehse 01 March 2013 (has links)
Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-21T19:26:04Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Rodrigo Frehse Pereira.pdf: 4666622 bytes, checksum: b2dcf2959eef9f7fd82301c2e45ac87f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-03-01 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Unstable dimension variability (UDV) is an extreme form of nonhyperbolicity. It is a structurally stable phenomenon, typical for high dimensional chaotic systems, which implies severe restrictions to shadowing of perturbed solutions. Perturbations are unavoidable in modelling Physical phenomena, since no system can be made completely isolated, states and parameters cannot be determined without uncertainties and any numeric approach to such models is affected by truncation and/or roundoff errors. Thus, the lack of shadowability in systems exhibiting UDV presents a challenge for modelling. Aiming to unveil the effect of perturbations a class of nonhyperbolic systems is studied. These systems present transversal unstable dimension variability (TUDV), which means the dynamics can be split in a skew direct product form, i. e. the phase space is decomposed in two components: a hyperbolic chaotic one, called longitudinal, and a nonhyperbolic transversal one. Moreover, in the absence of perturbations, the longitudinal component is a global attractor of the system. A prototype composed of two coupled piecewise-linear chaotic maps is presented in order to study the TUDV effects. This system has an invariant subspace S which characterizes the complete chaos synchronization and UDV, when present, is transversal to it. Taking advantage of (piecewise) linearity of the equations, an analytical method for unstable periodic orbits’ computation is presented. The set of all unstable periodic orbits (UPOs) is one of the building block of chaotic dynamics and its properties provide valuable informations about the asymptotic behaviour of the system as, for instance, the invariant natural measure. Therefore, the TUDV’s intensity is analytically studied by computing the contrast measure, which quantifies the difference between the statistical weights associated to UPOs with different unstable dimension. The effect of perturbations is modelled by the introduction of a small parameter mismatch, instead of noise addition, in order to keep the model’s determinism. Consequently, the characterization of dynamics by means of UPOs is still possible. It is shown the existence of a dense set G of UPOs outside the invariant subspace consistent with a chaotic repeller. When perturbation takes place, G merges with the set H of UPOs previously in S, given rise to a new nonhyperbolic stationary state. The analysis of G ∪H provides a topological explanation to the behaviour of systems with TUDV under perturbations. Moreover, the relation between the set of UPOs embedded in a chaotic attractor and its natural measure, proven only for hyperbolic systems, is successfully applied to this system: the error between the natural measure estimated both numerically and by means of UPOs is shown to be decreasing with p, the considered UPOs’ period. It is conjectured the coincidence between both in limit. Hence, a positive answer to reliability of numerical estimation to natural measure in nonhyperbolic systems via unstable dimension variability is presented. / A variabilidade da dimensão instável (VDI) é uma forma extrema de não-hiperbolicidade. É um fenômeno estruturalmente estável, típico para sistemas caóticos de alta dimensionalidade, que implica restrições severas ao sombreamento de soluções perturbadas. As perturbações¸ s são inevitáveis na modelagem de fenômenos fíısicos, uma vez que nenhum sistema pode ser isolado completamente, os estados e os parâmetros não podem ser determinados sem incertezas e qualquer abordagem numérica dos modelos é afetada por erros de arredondamento e/ou truncamento. Portanto, a falta da sombreabilidade em sistemas exibindo VDI apresenta um desafio à modelagem. Visando revelar os efeitos das perturbações, uma classe desses sistemas não hiperbó licos é estudada. Esses sistemas apresentam variabilidade da dimensão instável transversal (VDIT), significando que a dinâmica pode ser decomposta na forma de um produto direto assimétrico, i. e. o espação de fase é dividido em dois componentes: um hiperbólico e caótico, dito longitudinal, e um transversal e não-hiperbólico. Mais ainda, na ausência de perturbações, o componente longitudinal é um atrator global do sistema. Um protótipo composto de dois mapas ca´oticos lineares por partes acoplados é apresentado para o estudo dos efeitos da VDIT. Esse sistema possui um subespaço invariante S que caracteriza a sincronização completa de caos e a VDI, quando presente, é transversal a esse subespaço. Valendo-se da linearidade (por partes) das equações, um método analítico para o cálculo das órbitas periódicas instáveis é apresentado. O conjunto de todas as órbitas periódicas instáveis (OPIs) é um dos fundamentos da dinâmica caótica e suas propriedades fornecem informaões, valiosas sobre o comportamento assintótico do sistema como, por exemplo, a medida natural invariante. Assim, a intensidade da VDIT é estudada analiticamente pelo cálculo da medida de contraste, que quantifica a diferença entre o peso estatístico associado às OPIs com dimensão instável distintas. O efeito das perturbações é modelado pela introdução de um pequeno desvio nos parâmetros, ao invés da adição de ruído, a fim de manter o determinismo do modelo. Consequentemente, a caracterização da dinâmica em termos das OPIs ainda é possível. Demonstra-se a existência de um conjunto denso G de OPIs fora do subespaço invariante consistente com um repulsor caótico. Na presença de perturbações, G se funde com o conjunto H das OPIs previamente em S, dando origem a um novo estado estacionario não-hiperbólico. A análise de G ∪H fornece uma explicação topológica ao comportamento de sistemas com variabilidade da dimensão instável sob a açãoo de perturbações. Mais ainda, a relação entre o conjunto de OPIs imersas em um atrator caótico e sua medida natural, provada apenas para sistemas hiperbólicos, é aplicada com sucesso nesse sistema: mostra-se que o erro entre as medidas naturais estimadas numericamente e pelas OPIs é decrescente com p, o período das OPIs consideradas. Conjectura-se, portanto, a coincidência entre ambas no limite . Logo, apresenta-se uma resposta positiva à estimativa numérica da medida natural em sistemas não-hiperbólicos via variabilidade da dimensão instável.
964

Novas finanças: um estudo sobre a fragilidade da hipótese de mercados eficientes / The new finance: a study about the fragility of the efficiency market hiperlink

Costa, Tiago Alves 29 April 2008 (has links)
Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-25T16:45:04Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tiago Alves Costa.pdf: 830440 bytes, checksum: 40b830a47bb712666dd4a4ecfbcde61c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-04-29 / The finance science, as all sciences, shows an evolutionary line and according to Kuhn (1970), it is marked by shortly periods of knowledge accumulation. However, according to the author, such periods are inserted with scientific revolutions. In other words, the scientific evolution is stamped by revolutions which abandon oldfashioned paradigm and create new ones. The revolution is followed by a period where the researches are guided by the new paradigm and its purpose is strengthen the own paradigm. In other way, the finance science has today a central paradigm well-known by efficiency market hyperlink (EMH) which was witnessed and adopted by the entire scientific community around the 70 s. And since those times, almost entire research done in finance, mainly until the de 90 s, was leaded and done to validate the EMH. This dissertation attempted to evidence that the finance evolutionary line proposed by Haugen (2000) follows the same principle evidenced by Kuhn (1970), and in the present-day, the EMH find itself in a period which precede the scientific revolution which is called by time crisis by Kuhn (1970). This time crisis could weaken the EMH and open a space to create a new paradigm. This way, the proposal of dissertation is to prove how the revolutionary process will happen in finance too, soon after, to prove what would the candidates more inclined to replace the EMH be as a central paradigm in finance. To do so, this work considered only two candidates: the behavioral finance and the chaos theory. To do this analyze it was used the schooling principles nominated by Mckinley, Mone and Moon (2002). Such authors propose that a thought must display a combination of novelty, continuity, and scope to achieve school status in organizational theory. The purpose of this dissertation is to do a theory ransom which intends to show the fragility of the EMH as a central paradigm that orients the finance researches. The dissertation concludes that the current finance faces a crisis, and in this period, the behavioral finance displays the biggest chance to replace the EMH in the near future, however, the chaos theory provides the bigger promise considering a far future / A ciência das finanças, como toda ciência, apresenta uma linha evolutiva que de acordo com Kuhn (1970) é marcada por períodos de breve acumulação de conhecimento. Porém, de acordo com o autor, tais períodos são intercalados com revoluções científicas. Em outras palavras, a evolução científica é marcada por revoluções que abandonam antigos paradigmas e criam novos. Posteriormente à revolução, segue se um período onde as pesquisas são guiadas pelo novo paradigma com o propósito de fortalecer o próprio paradigma. De outra forma, a ciência financeira possui hoje um paradigma central conhecido como a hipótese de mercados eficientes (HME) que foi reconhecida e adotada pela comunidade científica por volta da década de 70. E desde aquela época, quase toda pesquisa feita na área, principalmente até a década de 90, foi guiada, e feita para validar e fortalecer a própria HME. Nesse sentido, este trabalho procurou evidenciar que a linha evolucionária das finanças proposta por Haugen (2000) segue o mesmo princípio evidenciado por Kuhn (1970), e que no momento atual, a HME encontra-se em um período que antecede a revolução científica e que é chamado de período de crise por Kuhn (1970). Esse período de crise, que antecede as revoluções, poderia enfraquecer a HME e abrir espaço para a criação de um novo paradigma. Sendo assim, o trabalho também propõe a evidenciar como que o processo de revolução poderá acontecer em finanças, e em seguida, também propõe quais seriam os candidatos mais propensos a substituir a HME como paradigma central em finanças. Para tanto, o trabalho considerou apenas dois candidatos: as finanças comportamentais e a teoria do caos. Para fazer tal análise, foram utilizados os princípios de escolarização propostos por Mckinley, Mone e Moon (2002). Tais autores propõem que um pensamento tem que possuir três características (novidade, continuidade e escopo) para ser considerado uma escola em teoria organizacional. O propósito do trabalho é de um resgate teórico básico que procura evidenciar a fragilidade da HME enquanto paradigma principal norteador das pesquisas em finanças. Assim sendo, o trabalho conclui que as finanças atuais enfrentam uma crise, e que nesse período, as finanças comportamentais apresentam a maior chance de substituir a HME em um futuro próximo, porém, a teoria do caos fornece uma promessa maior considerando um futuro mais distante
965

A aplicação dos recursos da seguridade social, a partir da perspectiva da teoria dos sistemas, da teoria comunicacional e do caos / The use of funds from social security, from the perspective of systems theory, communication theory and chaos

Zarzana Júnior, Dávio Antonio Prado 26 April 2011 (has links)
Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:19:58Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Davio Antonio Prado Zarzana Junior.pdf: 545163 bytes, checksum: 24ed5e49b6e73973d3cf79e7f0d5042d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-04-26 / This work, focusing on the financing of Social Security, intends to conduct three checks: first, the existence of deviations in the application of the funds raised for this financing, including from a formulation of one concept of deviation. Second, to examine potential imbalances produced by these possible deviations, from the perspective of Systems Theory, using, in addition, terminology from Communicational Theory. And third, to probe the possibility of complementary application of Chaos Theory to the problem of deviations, if found. The overall result of these investigations, through the dialecticalempirical method, will contribute to the perception of the importance of compliance with the constitutional application of resources to finance the Social Security / Este trabalho, focalizando o custeio da Seguridade Social, pretende realizar três verificações: a primeira, a existência ou não de desvios na aplicação dos recursos arrecadados para este financiamento, inclusive a partir da formulação de um conceito de desvio. A segunda, examinar os desequilíbrios que esses possíveis desvios produziriam, sob a ótica da Teoria dos Sistemas, utilizando-se, em adição, terminologia própria da Teoria Comunicacional. E a terceira, perscrutar a possibilidade de aplicação complementar da Teoria do Caos à problemática dos desvios eventualmente encontrados. O resultado global destas investigações, por meio do método empírico-dialético, deverá colaborar para a percepção da importância do cumprimento constitucional da aplicação dos recursos para o custeio da Seguridade Social
966

Initiating Factors Affecting Information Systems Project Success

Afolabi, Jonathan Olubunmi 01 January 2018 (has links)
Information systems (IS) projects are complex and costly, but only a 3rd of IS projects are successful; the Standish Group reported that 32% of IS projects were successful in 2012. Although investments in research have led to improvements in practice, there is a general perception that management failures are responsible for the low rate of IS project success. The effects of initiating factors on project outcome had not been sufficiently explored; few IS researchers have explored the initiation phase. The purpose of this grounded theory study was to explore project initiation factors, including relational, as well as decision-making aspects, and how they might be addressed to enhance the possibility of success. The research questions were oriented at identifying key initiation factors, how they might be managed to promote project success, and how decision-making factors at initiation might facilitate project success. A conceptual framework consisting of chaos theory and Ashby's law of requisite variety was used. Purposive and snowballing sampling techniques were used, and 24 IS managers and project managers were interviewed. A 3-stage data analysis approach was used and included open coding, focused coding, and theoretical coding. Key themes identified included project governance and management, as well as stakeholder engagement. The emergent theory of IS project initiation indicated that the factors represented by the themes must be identified during initiation but implemented throughout the project lifecycle to ensure project success. Positive social change may be realized as IS managers, and project managers apply the findings and recommendations to achieve project success and avoid costly failures thus benefiting both companies and customers.
967

Supply chains behaving badly : a dynamic model of inter-organisational supply chain exchange behaviour under rational, relational and chaotic paradigms

Wilson, Mark M. J. January 2006 (has links)
Supply chain exchange relationships are complex and sometimes chaotic sociological and organisational phenomena. This complexity is compounded by the boundary spanning necessity of forming supply chain partnerships that are further exacerbated by goal divergence and asymmetric information. One of the main questions for consideration is how these dyadic exchange relationships are maintained and develop over time in response to the various channel behaviours of the actors (the buyer and seller)? In particular, exchange relationships are theorised to be sensitive in some degree to attempts at economic appropriation, and conversely coordinative efforts. Such efforts manifest themselves into the mutually opposing forces broadly labelled as opportunistic and collaborative behavioural paradigms. Drawing from the concepts of Systems and Chaos/Complexity theories, it is theorised that the movement from one form of relational arrangement to another is enacted in a non-linear and dynamic manner with periods of relational equilibrium disrupted by bifurcations resulting in the emergence of new levels of relationship. However, not all exchange relationships are susceptible to constant change, rather, there should be some threshold barrier or relationship inertia that must be overcome before a bifurcation occurs. Yet what is not known is how strong these bonds are to the enactment of opportunistic and collaborative partner behaviours. Hence, 189 manufacturing supply chain relationships were survey-interviewed in order to determine the impact that collaborative and opportunistic behaviours have on supply chain relational movement. The results show that generally exchange relationships do in fact change in response to these enacted behaviours, and that actual levels of supply chain behaviour over a range of 12 variables could be measured. Indeed, the level of opportunistic behaviour experienced by the sample was disturbing. In addition, the level of tolerance (zone of tolerance) for specific behaviours was measured for the first time in the field. Overall, it was found that supply chain exchange relationships do indeed evolve in a non-linear dynamic manner in response to opportunistic and collaborative manoeuvres by the dyadic actors. Finally, these ideas were summarised in the Dynamic Relational Development (DRD) concept that explains how supply chain relationships dynamically change. In addition, the dualistic nature of the collaborative versus opportunistic behaviour choice for exchange actors is tentatively reconciled by the deontological approach of the Supply Chain Citizen theory offered in this research.
968

類神經網路與混沌現象 / The Neural Network and Chaos

吳慧娟, Wu, Hui-Chuan Unknown Date (has links)
本研究設計了一些實驗來檢測學習完混沌資料的神經網路系統是否為混沌系統,驗證的方法是檢驗是否具有混沌資料的四個特性,這四個特性包括:有限性、非週期性、確定性、及對初始條件的敏感依賴。同時,更進一步地利用上述學習完的網路系統來預測所學習的混沌模型,這麼做的目的是想要了解:學習後的網路系統是一個混沌系統時,與學習後網路系統不是一個混沌系統時,其預測能力的比較。 此外,我們亦從理論上證明:學習完混沌資料後的神經網路系統無法重建其所學習的混沌模型。然而,有時網路系統卻能夠模擬成一個混沌系統;如果使用模擬成混沌系統的神經網路來預測具有混沌現象的資料,換句話說,也就可能是使用一個混沌系統去預測另一個混沌系統,根據混沌的特性 -- 對初始條件的敏感依賴,這樣的預測應該會造成相當大的誤差;不過,從本研究的實驗中發現,無論學習後的神經網路系統是否為一個混沌系統,對其預測能力並無顯著的影響。 本論文希望能給「用神經網路系統來預測具有混沌現象的金融市場或其他領域」一些貢獻與幫助。 / This paper uses some experimental designs to detect if the Neural Networks system after learning the chaotic data is a chaotic system. That is verified via testing four characteristics in chaotic data, inclusive of boundedness, determinism, aperiodicity and sensitive dependence on initial conditions. Further, this paper uses the result above to predict the learned chaotic model. The purpose is to probe into if the Neural Networks system after learning the chaotic data is a chaotic system and is used to predict, how good the short-term and the long-term predictions will be? And, compare with if the Neural Networks system after learning the chaotic data is not a chaotic system and is used to predict, how large the error will be? We present the Neural Network systems after learning the chaotic data never can rebuild the learned chaotic model. But, sometimes the Neural Network system would mimic as a chaotic system. So, if we take Neural Network system to predict something with chaotic phenomena, it is possible to use one chaotic system to predict another chaotic system. According to the property of sensitive dependence on initial conditions, it should make large errors. However, from the experiments we design, we find whether the Neural Network system after learning is a chaotic system or not, it has no influence on its predicting effect. This hint is applied to use ANN to predict in financial markets or other areas with chaotic phenomenon.
969

臺灣股票市場非線性現象之研究:傅利葉轉換與小波轉換之應用 / The Research of Nonlinear Phenomena of the Taiwan Stock Market: the Applications of Fourier Transform and Wavelet Transform

陳國帥, Chen, Kuo Shuai Unknown Date (has links)
本文採用傅利葉轉換與小波轉換以探討非線性現象:長期相依的碎形結構與混沌現象。藉由傅利葉轉換與小波轉換兩種研究方法,所得到臺灣股票市場加權股價指數的實證結論如下:1.藉由傅利葉轉換所得到的H值為0.4632;藉由小波轉換所得到的H值為0.4750。這兩種研究方法皆顯示臺灣股票市場具有負的長期相依的碎形結構。2.藉由傅利葉轉換的研究方法,臺灣股票市場加權股價指數的頻譜由初始向下與寬的連續的頻帶所組成;臺灣股票市場加權股價指數的自我相關函數則隨著時間差距的增加而遞減。此顯示臺灣股票市場具有混沌現象。3.小波轉換可以檢測出臺灣股票市場加權股價指數的奇異之處,並且指出存有一能說明臺灣股票市場碎形結構的複雜性的機制。藉由以上的實證結論,可以得知臺灣股票市場具有反持續性的碎形結構,股票價格的變動來自於臺灣股票市場尺度上的自我相似性。即使如此,由於混沌不可預測性的本質,使得股票價格的預測似乎是不可能的。 / The Fourier transform and the wavelet transform are utilized in this research to explore the nonlinear phenomena: the fractal structure of long trem dependence and the phenomenon of chaos.   In terms of the two research methods of the Fourier transform and the wavelet transform, the empirical conclusions of the Taiwan stock exchange weighted stock index are derived as follows:   1. The $H$ value of the research method of the Fourier transform is 0.4632; the $H$ value of the research method of the wavelet transform is 0.4750. The two research methods show that the Taiwan stock market has a fractal structure of negative long term dependence.   2. In terms of the research method of the Fourier transform, the power spectrum of the Taiwan stock exchange weighted stock index consists of initially downward and wide continuous band of frequencies; the autocorrelation function of the Taiwan stock exchange weighted stock index decreases as the time lag increases. These observations show that there exists the phenomenon of chaos in the Taiwan stock market.   3. The wavelet transform can detect out the singularities of the Taiwan stock exchange weighted stock index and can point out the heirarchy that illustrates the complexity of the fractal sturcture in the Taiwan stock market.   By the above empirical conclusions, there exists the antipersistent fractal structure in the Taiwan stock market. The variations of stock prices result from the self-similarity of the scales of the Taiwan stock market. Even so, the prediction of stock prices seems very impossible as a result of the unpredictability of chaotic nature.
970

A complex systems perspective on communities and tourism : a comparison of two case studies in Kaikoura and Rotorua

Horn, Chrys January 2002 (has links)
This thesis analyses research into the evolution and adaptation of the communities in Rotorua and Kaikoura by using a complex systems perspective. This perspective requires that the analyst look beyond the obvious impacts of tourism such as employment, crowding, and congestion, to the processes that underlie the experiences of local people in relation to tourism. The configuration of the destination, the flows of people in the area, the visitor types and the ratio of hosts to guests all influence a community's interactions with tourists. In small destinations, the effect of host interactions with guests is potentially much greater than is the case in larger destinations. However, in using a complex systems perspective to analyse the effects of tourism on these two destinations, it becomes clear that the impacts of tourism are more than just the impacts of tourists. The impacts of tourism are intertwined with the processes of trust, leadership and decision making occurring both within the community and within the wider regional and national socio-economic systems. As such, local perceptions of tourism are associated with history, geography, local politics and local social processes. As concepts, the meanings of both 'tourism' and 'community' emerge from the experiences people have, and the associations that they make with the two terms. Thus, the meaning of both 'tourism' and 'community' are idiosyncratic and locally defined. Each term means different things to residents in Rotorua and Kaikoura, and each affects how residents perceive tourism in their respective towns. For example, the associations that people make between historical events and processes such as restructuring are quite different in each of the two communities. In Rotorua, tourism is seen as a source of stability, as a phenomenon that confers a higher level of perceived control on the community. In Kaikoura, tourism is seen as a source of change and it confers a lesser sense of perceived control on the community overall. Likewise, the relationship between the local council and the community underlies the sense of security people feel about local decision making processes. This relationship is mediated by a range of processes including the effort that the council put into communicating with community members, the leadership shown by the council, the way in which they facilitate community visioning processes, which then provide a basis for both leadership and decision making. Underlying these processes are community processes of rivalry, competition, cooperation, labelling and stereotyping that all affect the levels of trust that the community have in those around them. Community cohesion (which is not the same as community agreement) underlies a community's ability to work together to manage tourism. Thus using a complex systems approach to analyse the impacts of tourism in two destinations has shown that there is much more to tourism than the impacts of tourists and their activities. Instead, the way the community system interacts with the tourism system gives rise to the impacts of tourism. Tourism can be usefully conceptualised as a process that is inextricably interwoven with history, politics and community interaction processes at the destination level. Perceptions of tourism reflect these processes and the understanding that local people have of them, and the level of control that they feel they have over tourism development. With little trust in local decision making processes, people have a low sense of control over how tourism development affects them. In tourism planning, therefore, it may be more effective to focus primarily on the processes by which tourism development and management occurs in the local area and to look at mitigating the effects of tourists only after building community capacity to adaptively manage tourism in their area. Communities need a sense of control over their world, and this is only undermined when experts and institutions try to advise courses of action without involving a range of community players in the process of managing tourism. Thus, government and other organisations and institutions at local level must focus on working with communities to build local capacity to manage tourism, without imposing on those communities to convince them to 'treat tourists well' or to manage their environment better, so they become more attractive as a destination.

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