Esse trabalho contribui com o desenvolvimento de um novo modelo para dados de sobrevivência com sobreviventes de longo termo visando uma formulação e interpretação mais realista do que a apresentada pelos modelos com fração de curados usuais. Motivados pelo estudo do tempo de sobrevivência residual para pacientes oncológicos, o modelo usa o processo de nascimento e morte para permitir a variação do número de fatores de risco latentes durante um período precedente ao acompanhamento médico, considerando, então, um cenário de riscos competitivos para obtenção da função da sobrevivência (imprópria) dos pacientes. Simulações a aplicações à dados do Instituto do Câncer do Estado de São Paulo mostraram vantagens sobre o modelo de tempos de promoção. / This work contributes with a new cure rate survival model developed aiming more realistic formulation and interpretations than the usual long-term survival models. Motivated by studying residual survival times in oncological patients, the model uses birth and death process to allow free variation on the number of latent risk factors during a pre-follow up period, then considers competing risks scenario for accessing the patients survival. Simulations and application to Instituto do Câncer do Estado de São Paulo data showed improvement over the promotion time model.

La mise en place de Solvabilité II conduit les actuaires à s'interroger sur la bonne adéquation entre modèles et données. Aussi, cette thèse a pour objectif d'étudier plusieurs approches statistiques, souvent méconnues des praticiens, permettant l'utilisation de méthodes multi états pour modéliser et gérer les risques individuels en assurance. Le Chapitre 1 présente le contexte général de cette thèse et permet de faire positionner ses principales contributions. Nous abordons les concepts de base liés à l'utilisation de modèles multi-états en assurance et décrivons les techniques d'inférence classiques adaptées aux données rencontrées, qu'ils soient markoviens ou non-markoviens. Pour finir, nous présentons comment il est possible d'utiliser ces modèles pour la gestion des risques de crédit. Le Chapitre 2 se concentre sur l'utilisation de méthodes d'inférence non-paramétriques pour la construction de lois d'incidence en assurance dépendance. Puisque plusieurs causes d'entrée sont susceptibles d'intervenir et d'intéresser les actuaires, nous nous concentrons sur une méthode utilisée pour l'estimation de modèles multi-états markoviens en temps continu. Nous comparons, dans un second temps, ces estimateurs à ceux utilisés classiquement par les praticiens tires de l'analyse de survie. Cette seconde approche peut comporter des biais non négligeables car ne permettant pas d'appréhender correctement l'interaction possible entre les causes. En particulier, elle comprend une hypothèse d'indépendance ne pouvant être testée dans le cadre de modèles à risques concurrents. Notre approche consiste alors à mesurer l'erreur commise par les praticiens lors de la construction de lois d'incidence. Une application numérique est alors considérée sur la base des données d'un assureur dépendance / With the implementation of the Solvency II framework, actuaries should examine the good adequacy between models and data. This thesis aims to study several statistical approaches, often ignored by practitioners, enabling the use of multi-state methods to model and manage individual risks in insurance. Chapter 1 presents the general context of this thesis and positions its main contributions. The basic tools to use multi-state models in insurance are introduced and classical inference techniques, adapted to insurance data with and without the Markov assumption, are presented. Finally, a development of these models for credit risk is outlined. Chapter 2 focuses on using nonparametric inference methods to build incidence tables for long term care insurance contracts. Since there are several entry-causes in disability states which are useful for actuaries, an inference method for competing risks data, seen as a Markov multi-state model in continuous time, is used. In a second step, I compare these estimators to those conventionally used by practitioners, based on survival analysis methods. This second approach may involve significant bias because the interaction between entry-causes cannot be appropriately captured. In particular, these approaches assume that latent failure times are independent, while this hypothesis cannot be tested for competing risks data. Our approach allows to measure the error done by practitioners when they build incidence tables. Finally, a numerical application is considered on a long term care insurance dataset

<p>Enzymes are useful tools as specific analytical reagents. Two different analysis methods were developed for use in the separate fields of protein science and organic synthesis. Both methods rely on the substrate specificity of enzymes. Enzyme catalysis and substrate specificity is described and put in context with each of the two developed methods.</p><p>In <strong>paper I </strong>a method for C-terminal peptide sequencing was developed based on conventional Carboxypeptidase Y digestion combined with matrix assisted laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry. An alternative nucleophile was used to obtain a stable peptide ladder and improve sequence coverage.</p><p>In paper<strong> II </strong>and <strong>III</strong>, three different enzymes were used for rapid analysis of enantiomeric excess and conversion of O-acylated cyanohydrins synthesized by a defined protocol. Horse liver alcohol dehydrogenase,<em> Candida antarctica</em> lipase<strong> </strong>B<strong> </strong>and pig liver esterase were sequentially added to a solution containing the O-acylated cyanohydrin. Each enzyme caused a drop in absorbance from oxidation of NADH to NAD⁺. The conversion and enantiomeric excess of the sample could be calculated from the relative differences in absorbance.</p>

From the Proceedings of the 1971 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - April 22-23, 1971, Tempe, Arizona / In the semiarid southwestern U.S. where competition for water is fierce between competing users, no regional agency controls water allocation, and as a result, much court litigation ensues. This paper attempts to develop a model for optimal allocation of water resources and to apply the model to a specific case study. In November 1969, the largest farming interest in the Sahuarita-continental area near Tucson filed a court suit seeking first to reduce the amount of groundwater used by 4 nearby copper mines, and then to allocate the water more evenly among various interests in the area. The farming interest maintained that the mines' drawdown on the groundwater table would soon deplete the supply to the point where agriculture would become impossible. The model utilizes the concept of collective utility which postulates the existence of an economic decision maker (edp). To get around the problem of determination of net revenue functions, the theory compares the relative desirability of neighboring economic states. The edp has the power to impose groundwater-use taxes in such a way as to maximize overall growth of collective utility in the Sahuarita-continental area, taking into account the externalities of the resource consumption. The mathematical analysis is presented in detail.

From the Proceedings of the 1978 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - April 14-15, 1978, Flagstaff, Arizona / The relationships between the separate disciplines of hydrology and law are analysed in this study into how water law and its strictures may impose upon the development of urban runoff in the metropolitan Tucson area. Brief descriptions of the doctrine of appropriation, diffuse surface waters and developed waters are presented to illustrate the complexities of the problem of urban runoff development. It is suggested that planners must not only be aware of the legal issues involved but also must understand the philosophy and principles of water law.

Background: Factors predicting survival in men with lymph node-positive prostate cancer are still poorly defined. Patients and Methods: 193 prostate cancer patients with histopathologically proven lymph node involvement with a median follow-up of 7.3 years were studied. 94% of patients received immediate hormonal therapy. Kaplan-Meier curves were calculated to evaluate overall survival rates and compared with the log-rank test. Cumulative disease-specific and competing mortality rates were calculated by competing risk analysis and compared with the Pepe-Mori test. Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine the independent significance of predictors of all-cause mortality. Results: Age (70 years or older vs. younger), Gleason score (8–10 vs. 7 or lower) and the number of involved nodes (3 or more vs. 1–2) were identified as independent predictors of all-cause mortality. When patients with 0–1 of these risk factors were compared with those with 2–3 risk factors, all-cause (rates after 10 years 21% vs. 71%, p < 0.0001), disease-specific (12 vs. 37%, p = 0.009) and competing mortality (9 vs. 33%, p = 0.02) differed significantly. Conclusions: Some of the excess mortality in patients with poor-risk lymph node-positive prostate cancer may be attributed to increased competing mortality, possibly caused by an interaction between comorbid diseases and hormonally treated persistent or progressive prostate cancer. / Dieser Beitrag ist mit Zustimmung des Rechteinhabers aufgrund einer (DFG-geförderten) Allianz- bzw. Nationallizenz frei zugänglich.

本研究旨在探討競值架構下國民小學校長領導行為、學校組織文化與教師教學效能之間的關聯。研究採用調查研究法，以新北市公立國民小學教師為對象，共發出748份問卷，共獲得有效問卷646份，有效問卷回收率為86.36％。正式問卷回收之後，分別以描述統計、t考驗、單因子單變量變異數分析、單因子多變量變異數分析、皮爾森積差相關、多元逐步迴歸分析及結構方程模式等統計方式對回收資料進行分析。 本研究獲得以下十一項結論： 一、國民小學校長領導行為在中上水準，以競爭層面表現較突出。 二、國民小學組織文化表現達中上水準，趨向於團隊和層級層面。 三、國民小學教師教學效能平均達高表現水準，以良好學習氣氛得分最高、教學計畫準備得分最低，且顯著低於其他四個教學效能層面。 四、國民小學校長領導行為與學校組織文化以右上象限層面得分均低。 五、教師職務在校長領導行為方面有差異、教師年齡、學歷、服務年資與職務在教學效能上有差異。 六、校長年齡在校長領導行為與學校組織文化方面有差異。 七、學校規模、所在地、校齡在校長領導行為、學校組織文化與教師教學效能均有顯著差異。 八、校長領導行為、學校組織文化與教師教學效能之間具有顯著正相關。 九、校長領導行為、學校組織文化與教師教學效能之間具有顯著預測力。 十、校長領導行為與學校組織文化不僅與對應象限的分層面有正相關與預 測力，與非對應象限甚至對立象限的層面也有顯著正相關與預測力。 十一、校長領導行為可顯著影響教師教學效能，也可透過學校組織文化的 中介作用，正向影響教師教學效能。 本研究分別就實務應用及未來研究兩方面提出如下建議： 一、實務應用方面： (一) 建立回饋機制，使校長瞭解自身領導風格，靈活轉換各種領導行為，並善用競爭領導優勢，成為學校成員學習的榜樣。 (二) 校長應瞭解並協助學校成員認識學校組織文化類型，透過形塑願景與組織對話，使組織在文化生命週期中有效能的運作。 (三) 教師應兼顧每一個教學效能層面，並加強提升教學計畫準備。 (四) 校長應培養創新的領導能力，帶動發展革新求變的組織文化氛圍。 (五) 校內應建立教師教學對話與教學研討機制，藉以傳承資深優良教師教學經驗與觀摩學習。 (六) 校長對於經營校務發展應勇於任事、完全承擔，不應因性別、年齡、學歷、到任時間自我設限，虛與尾蛇。 (七) 校長與學校成員應詳加瞭解所處學校環境，研擬策略面對學校所處位置之有利與不利條件，以營造學校文化及提升教學效能。 (八) 校長應不斷強化自身領導的能力與行為複雜度，並且形塑優質學 校組織文化，以提升教師教學效能表現。 (九) 校長與學校成員應建立深厚的教育夥伴情感，體認共享學校教 育成果之重要性與榮辱休戚與共的使命感，以提供良好教育環境。 (十) 校長應展現兼容並蓄的多元領導風格，以面對諸多領導弔詭與兩 難的困境。 (十一) 營造兼容並蓄學校組織文化，發揮促進教師教學效能中介效果。 二、未來研究方面： 本研究分別就研究對象、研究變項、研究方法，對未來研究提出建議。 / The objective of this study is to understand the relationships among principal’s leadership behavior, school organizational culture and teaching effectiveness in elementary schools by Competing Values Framework. Study on survey research. A total of 646 usable questionnaires were collected from 748 teachers of public elementary schools in New Taipei City. The effective response rate was 86.36％. The statistical techniques applied to this study such as: “describing statistics”, “t-test”, “one-way ANOVA”, “one-way MANOVA”, “Pearson product-moment correlation”, “stepwise multiple regression analysis” and “structural equation modeling”. With the data analysis result, researcher reached the conclusions as following： 1.Principal’s leadership behavior performance of public elementary schools achieves upper-moderate level, and “Compete” is the highlight among all of the dimensions. 2.School organizational culture performance of public elementary schools achieves upper-moderate level, and “Clan” and “Hierarchy” are the highlight among all of the dimensions. 3.The perception of teacher’s teaching effectiveness gets high score level, and “Good instructional climate ” is the highlight among all of the dimensions of teaching effectiveness, and "teaching plan preparation" is significantly weaker than the others four dimensions. 4.Both of principal’s leadership behavior and school organizational culture of public elementary schools in upper right quadrant of CVF scores are low. 5.There is a significantly divergence for “teacher job position” in principal’s leadership behavior and such as teachers’ “age”, “education”, “srevice year” and “job position”, there is a significant divergence in teaching effectiveness. 6.There is a significant divergence for “principal age” between principal’s leadership behaviors and school organizational cultural. 7.Such as “ school size”, “ location” and “school history”, there are significant divergences among principal’s leadership behaviors , school organizational cultural and teaching effectiveness. 8.There are significant positive correlation among principal’s leadership behavior, school organizational culture and teaching effectiveness. 9.There are significant predictive power among principal’s leadership behavior, school organizational culture and teaching effectiveness. 10.Between principal’s leadership behavior and school organizational culture are not only the corresponding quadrant, but also the non- corresponding and even opposing corresponding quadrants, and there are significant positive correlation and predictive power. 11.Principal’s leadership behavior could positively affect teaching effectiveness through the mediate effect of school organizational culture. Otherwise, this study provides suggestions of practical application and future study respectively.

Submitted by Johnny Rodrigues (johnnyrodrigues@ufcg.edu.br) on 2018-08-22T19:52:23Z No. of bitstreams: 1 ANA EMÍLIA VICTOR BARBOSA - DISSERTAÇÃO PPGCC 2007..pdf: 1669761 bytes, checksum: f47054507fe9200c8d1d56d2848ae276 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-22T19:52:23Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ANA EMÍLIA VICTOR BARBOSA - DISSERTAÇÃO PPGCC 2007..pdf: 1669761 bytes, checksum: f47054507fe9200c8d1d56d2848ae276 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007-04-20 / Capes / Neste trabalho propomos uma técnica que visa detectar violações de propriedades comportamentais automaticamente durante a execução de sistema de software concorrentes. A técnica foi inspirada na metodologia de desenvolvimento Design by Contract (DbC). DbC permite que os desenvolvedores adicionem aos programas asserções para que sejam verificadas em tempo de execução. O uso de asserções para expressar propriedades de programas concorrentes (multithreaded)eparalelos, entretanto,não ésuficiente. Nesses sistemas,muitas das propriedades comportamentais de interesse, como vivacidade e segurança, não podem ser expressas apenas com asserções. Essas propriedades requerem o uso de operadores temporais. Neste trabalho, utilizamos Lógica Linear Temporal (Linear Time Logic - LTL) para expressar o comportamento desejado. Para dar suporte a checagem do comportamento dos programas em tempo de execução, propomos uma técnica baseada em Programação Orientada a Aspectos, que permite que o programa seja continuamente monitorado (o comportamento é checado através do uso de autômatos que permite a deteção de comportamentos inesperados). Associada a cada propriedade comportamental existe um conjunto de pontos de interesse do código-fonte que devem obedece-la. Esses pontos são então monitorados durante a execução do sistema através do uso de aspectos. Entre outros benefícios, a técnica permite que o sistema de software alvo seja instrumentado de maneira não intrusiva, sem alterar o código-fonte — particulamente, nenhum código do software alvo deve ser modificado para execução da monitoração. Para validar este trabalho, desenvolvemos como prova de conceitos um protótipo que implementa a técnica e permite a monitoração de programas Java multi-threaded, chamado DesignMonitor. Essa ferramenta é apresentada e discutida através de um estudo de caso para demonstrar a aplicação da técnica / In this work we propose and develop a technique that allows to detect the violation of behavior properties of concurrent systems. The technique was inspired by the Design by Contract (DbC) programming methodology, which proposes the use of assertions and their evaluation at runtime to check programs behavior. The use of simple assertions to express properties of concurrent and parallel programs, however, is not sufficient. Many of the relevant properties of those systems,s uch as liveness and security, can not be expressed with simple assertions. Thesepropertiesrequiretheuseof temporal operators. In our work, we used Linear Time Logic (LTL) to specify the expected behavior. To support the runtime checking of the program against the expected behavior, we propose a technique, based on Aspect-Oriented Programming, that allows the program to be continuously monitored (behavior is checked against automata that allows the detection of unexpected behaviors). Each property is mapped to a set of points of interest in the target program. Those points are then monitored during the system execution through aspects. Among other benefits, the technique allows the instrumentation of the target software to be performed automatically and in a non-intrusive way — in particular, no code must be changed toturn monitoring on or off. To validate the work, we developed a proof of concept prototype tool that implements the technique and allows the monitoring of multi-threaded Java programs, called DesignMonitor. The tool was used in case study that has allowed the evaluation and the discussion of practical issues related with the technique.

SANTOS, Francisco Ednardo Pinho. Restrições à atribuição de funções semânticas e sintáticas: um estudo funcionalista sobre inadequações na construção do enunciado em redações escolares. 2010. 121p. Dissertação (Mestrado em Linguistica) – Universidade Federal do Ceará, Departamento de Letras Vernaculas, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Linguística, Fortaleza-CE, 2010. / Submitted by nazareno mesquita (nazagon36@yahoo.com.br) on 2012-08-07T13:20:17Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2010_diss_FEPDOSSANTOS.pdf: 756574 bytes, checksum: d55e9c0b62aa49d00b059d0fa40805d0 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Maria Josineide Góis(josineide@ufc.br) on 2013-10-10T14:10:44Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 2010_diss_FEPDOSSANTOS.pdf: 756574 bytes, checksum: d55e9c0b62aa49d00b059d0fa40805d0 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-10-10T14:10:44Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2010_diss_FEPDOSSANTOS.pdf: 756574 bytes, checksum: d55e9c0b62aa49d00b059d0fa40805d0 (MD5) / This research analyzes some aspects of the question of the factors through which it can be considered that a sentence is inadequate concerning the interaction event in which it is used and the grammar of the specific language, according to a functionalist view of language as a system flexible when faced with usage pressure. It proposes a typology contemplating the types of inadequate usages found in the corpus, related to a frame in which the inadequate usage is seen as the non-satisfaction of a functional demand. Considering that pragmatic and semantic motivations compete for the morphosyntactic expression (DUBOIS, 1987), the basic hypothesis is that competing motivations can be left unsolved so that an inadequate construction is produced. The analysis is based on the theory of Functional-Discourse Grammar (HENGEVELD; MACKENZIE, 2008). This theory comprehends the grammar as part of a wider model of verbal interaction, so that it can account of the cognitive, interactive and textual factors which have an impact on the grammatical aspects of the predication. The corpus takes a set of presumably inadequate sentences collected from a bank of high school students’ texts. / Esta pesquisa investiga alguns aspectos da difícil questão dos fatores pelos quais se pode considerar um enunciado inadequado à situação de interação em que é usado e à gramática da língua, conforme concepção funcionalista de gramática como sistema sensível às pressões do uso. Propõe uma tipologia que engloba os tipos de inadequação encontrados no corpus de análise, correlacionados a um quadro em que a inadequação seja vista como não-satisfação de uma demanda funcional. A hipótese básica, considerando que demandas internas e externas ao sistema competem entre si pela expressão morfossintática (DUBOIS, 1985), é a de que essa competição entre motivações pragmáticas, semânticas e morfossintáticas pode não se resolver satisfatoriamente em algumas situações de uso da língua, produzindo-se construções inadequadas quanto a algum tipo de motivação. A análise serve-se do instrumental teórico da Gramática Discursivo-Funcional (HENGEVELD; MACKENZIE, 2008), que, ao compreender a gramática como parte de um modelo de interação verbal, permite dar conta dos fatores cognitivos, interacionais e textuais que têm impacto nos aspectos gramaticais da predicação. Trabalhamos com um corpus constituído principalmente por um conjunto de enunciados considerados inadequados, retirados de um banco de redações escolares de estudantes do Ensino Médio da rede pública em Fortaleza, coletado por nós.

Em vista da tentência de se criarem intefaces entre humanos e máquinas que cada vez mais permitam meios simples de interação, é natural que sejam realizadas pesquisas em técnicas que procuram simular o meio mais convencional de comunicação que os humanos usam: a fala. No sistema auditivo humano, a voz é automaticamente processada pelo cérebro de modo efetivo e fácil, também comumente auxiliada por informações visuais, como movimentação labial e localizacão dos locutores. Este processamento realizado pelo cérebro inclui dois componentes importantes que a comunicação baseada em fala requere: Detecção de Atividade de Voz (Voice Activity Detection - VAD) e Localização de Fontes Sonoras (Sound Source Localization - SSL). Consequentemente, VAD e SSL também servem como ferramentas mandatórias de pré-processamento em aplicações de Interfaces Humano-Computador (Human Computer Interface - HCI), como no caso de reconhecimento automático de voz e identificação de locutor. Entretanto, VAD e SSL ainda são problemas desafiadores quando se lidando com cenários acústicos realísticos, particularmente na presença de ruído, reverberação e locutores simultâneos. Neste trabalho, são propostas abordagens para tratar tais problemas, para os casos de uma e múltiplas fontes sonoras, através do uso de informações audiovisuais, explorando-se variadas maneiras de se fundir as modalidades de áudio e vídeo. Este trabalho também emprega um arranjo de microfones para o processamento de som, o qual permite que as informações espaciais dos sinais acústicos sejam exploradas através do algoritmo estado-da-arte SRP (Steered Response Power). Por consequência adicional, uma eficiente implementação em GPU do SRP foi desenvolvida, possibilitando processamento em tempo real do algoritmo. Os experimentos realizados mostram uma acurácia média de 95% ao se efetuar VAD de até três locutores simultâneos, e um erro médio de 10cm ao se localizar tais locutores. / Given the tendency of creating interfaces between human and machines that increasingly allow simple ways of interaction, it is only natural that research effort is put into techniques that seek to simulate the most conventional mean of communication humans use: the speech. In the human auditory system, voice is automatically processed by the brain in an effortless and effective way, also commonly aided by visual cues, such as mouth movement and location of the speakers. This processing done by the brain includes two important components that speech-based communication require: Voice Activity Detection (VAD) and Sound Source Localization (SSL). Consequently, VAD and SSL also serve as mandatory preprocessing tools for high-end Human Computer Interface (HCI) applications in a computing environment, as the case of automatic speech recognition and speaker identification. However, VAD and SSL are still challenging problems when dealing with realistic acoustic scenarios, particularly in the presence of noise, reverberation and multiple simultaneous speakers. In this work we propose some approaches for tackling these problems using audiovisual information, both for the single source and the competing sources scenario, exploiting distinct ways of fusing the audio and video modalities. Our work also employs a microphone array for the audio processing, which allows the spatial information of the acoustic signals to be explored through the stateof- the art method Steered Response Power (SRP). As an additional consequence, a very fast GPU version of the SRP is developed, so that real-time processing is achieved. Our experiments show an average accuracy of 95% when performing VAD of up to three simultaneous speakers and an average error of 10cm when locating such speakers.