政務官面對急速變遷的環境，必須洞察時代的脈動，妥為因應，才能永續發展組織的業務。因此，不論工作計畫的擬定、問題的解決、或危機處理，必須掌握先機，蒐集資訊，並運用決策模型，縝密分析後採取行動，才能達到預期的目標，而正確的決策，對於機關業務的推動，更具關鍵性的影響。 　　本研究主要採取文獻探討、比較分析、深度訪談等研究方法。為能更深入了解我國政務官決策之方法、過程及面臨之困境，本研究參考決策相關理論，諸如，認知性決策過程、理性選擇、結構式溝通、利益團體、影響決策過程因素、政治系統過程等問題設計訪談題綱，並抽樣分別向行政院所屬相關部會，如法務部、經濟部、教育部、大陸委員會、勞工委員會、青年輔導委員會、蒙藏委員會等機關首長深度訪談，從其決策經驗及實案分析，以了解其決策之模型，並避免本研究流於理論之空談。 　　本研究發現：一、政務官在決策前，對於政策都能充分理解。二、政務官的決策方式，都有採用有限理性模型。三、政務官的決策方法，都有採用群體決策。四、政務官對於利益團體的活動，都認為有其必要性。五、政務官認為影響其決策的因素，可歸納為時間的壓力、輿論的反應、預算的通過、高層意見、立法院、法律限制等。六、政務官對於國內的政治生態環境皆能適應。 　　根據文獻探討及深度訪談發現，本研究提出以下建議，作為政務官決策之參考：一、理解政策問題。二、確定政策目標。三、建構備選方案。四、設定篩選準則。五、爭取政策支持。六、監督政策執行。 / Government officials especially for those who are responsible for ministerial portfolio have to make decisions in response to the constantly changing environment. Hence, it requires takes excellent foresight, good data mining skills, superior strategic models and deliberate analysis to draft plans, solve problems, and deal with the crisis. Making the right decision serves as the key factor in the process of successful governance. 　　In this research, the author applies the methods of literature review, comparative analysis, and in-depth interview in order to understand the decision-making process, decision methods, as well as decision dilemma confronting ministerial officials with portfolio. Further more, this research uses relevant decision -making theories, such as cognitive decision process, rational choice, structured communication, and factors affecting decision-making process, such as interest groups & political system process. Based on the parameters of literature review, the author designs the outlines of interviews and selects ministerial officials with portfolio from the ministry of justice, ministry of economic affairs, ministry of education, mainland affairs council, national youth commission, and Mongolian and Tibetan affairs commission and conducts in-depth interviews. 　　There are several important findings derived from our 〝empirical〞case studies. First, before a government official makes his decision, he has a full grasp with the policy issue. Second, the decision models of government officials are mostly based on limited-rational model. Third, government officials often make decisions based on group consensus. Fourth, government officials think it is necessary to take opinions of interest groups into account. Fifth, government officials spend a lot of time in response to public pressure, budget & legal constraints demands of Legislative Yuan and in fathoming the attitudes of higher authorities before they make their decisions. Sixth, most government officials are quite accustomed to the political environment. 　　According to our literature review and in-depth interviews, this study makes the following suggestions before a government official makes his or her policy decision. First, fully comprehend the content and implications of a policy. Second, set an objective for the policy. Third, keep a substitute project on hand. Forth, set criteria or standards for policy implementation. Fifth, to garner for support from government and related actors. Sixth, monitor the execution of a policy.

Thèse numérisée par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal.

Children nowadays are exposed to a huge amount of advertisements wherever they go. It appears that children are a very attractive target group because of their ability to influence their parents to buy them preferred products and brands. This Thesis focuses on analysis of children's influence on their parents' purchase decisions. The Thesis consists of 5 chapters. First three parts are theoretical. The introductory chapter deals with the consumer's purchase decision-making process and factors that affect this process. The second part describes family as a special consumer unit which forms individual consumer behaviour. Final theoretical chapter focuses on the child as a specific consumer and customer. In the practical part the reserach is conducted to reveal into what extent children influence their parents about purchase. At the end the recommendations for successful children advertisement are set up.

Customers today use travel agencies that exist on the internet more frequently. However, what makes the customer trust a specific website? The purpose of this study is to examine if a customers’ trust towards a travel agency is affected by the agency’s website and the role trust plays in customers’ decision-making process. To examine this purpose a web survey and interviews were carried out. The web survey totals 110 responses and 15 people were selected through snowball sampling for the interviews. Results demonstrate that customers are affected by the design of the website in a way that it decides whether or not the customer will invest time and use the website. Furthermore, after getting past the first stage customers then decide whether or not a website is trustworthy depending on a set of factors including but not limited to security, information and navigation. The customers’ decision-making process is affected by trust in a later stage when the customer evaluates the possible alternatives. However when it comes to choosing a website, a customer might choose to buy a product from a website he/she has previously used due to already having built a trust towards the website and therefore refrains from using an unknown website. In that sense, trust is present from previous experiences and affects the customer in an earlier stage of the decision-making process. / Användningen av internet i vardagen har ökat under de senaste två decennierna. Som en form av marknadsföring är internet rätt ny och kan därmed medföra utmaningar för marknadsförare. För att kunna locka till sig kunder via internet samt behålla dem måste ett företags hemsida kunna tillfredsställa kunderna på olika sätt. Om en hemsida misslyckas med detta kan resultatet bli att kunderna avstår från att använda sig av en hemsida och använda andra företags hemsidor. Kunder använder idag resebyråer som finns på internet oftare. Men vad får kunden att ge sitt förtroende till en viss hemsida? Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka om kunders förtroende mot en resebyrå påverkas av resebyråns hemsida och vilken roll förtroendet spelar för kundernas beslutsprocess. För att undersöka detta syfte genomfördes en websurvey och intervjuer. Websurvey uppgick till 110 svar och 15 personer valdes genom snöbollsurval för intervjuerna. Resultatet visar att kunderna påverkas av designen på ett sätt som avgör om kunden kommer investera tid och använda hemsidan eller inte. Efter att ha tagit sig förbi det första steget bestämmer kunderna huruvida en hemsida är pålitlig eller inte beroende på en uppsättning faktorer, inklusive men inte begränsat till säkerhet, information och navigering. Kundernas beslutsprocess påverkas av förtroende i ett senare skede när kunden utvärderar möjliga alternativ. Men när det gäller att välja en hemsida kan en kund välja att köpa en produkt från en webbplats som hen tidigare använt på grund av att hen redan har byggt upp tillit till hemsidan och därför avstår från att använda en okänd hemsida. På så sätt är förtroendet närvarande från tidigare erfarenheter och påverkar kunden i ett tidigare skede av beslutsprocessen.

Esta tese tem como objetivo analisar os processos decisórios, as condições causais e os principais atores, seus interesses e suas influências que culminaram na criação da Política de Regularização Fundiária da Amazônia (PRFA), conhecida como Programa Terra Legal (Lei Federal nº 11.952/2009), durante o governo do presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003-2011). O propósito dessa política pública é regularizar ocupações consolidadas em terras públicas da União, situadas na Amazônia Legal, transferindo-as para domínio particular. Ao mesmo tempo que ela tem sido criticada por eventuais legalizações de grilagens e consumação de danos ambientais, tem recebido aplausos por fazer justiça social. A questão central que orienta esta pesquisa é a seguinte: por que o Estado brasileiro, no ano de 2009, adotou a PRFA? As hipóteses para a pergunta formulada consideram que, no interior do heterogêneo governo Lula, a política pública foi resultado da prevalência dos interesses de atores que utilizam a terra como um instrumento de poder e exploração predatória de elementos naturais (setores do agronegócio, políticos ruralistas, latifundiários e grileiros), ou então a política pública resultou da preocupação do Estado em regularizar pequenas e médias ocupações, sendo que eventuais legitimações de grilagens e danos ambientais seriam o resultado de imperfeições da lei. Para tanto, dentro da perspectiva interdisciplinar da Ciência Ambiental e utilizando-se de elementos teóricos do modelo dos Múltiplos Fluxos, de John W. Kingdon (1995), esta tese procura integrar conhecimentos da geografia, da ciência jurídica e, notadamente, da ciência política, de onde se extrai a base teórica e metodológica de análise. Assim, tendo como pano de fundo o neoinstitucionalismo, estudado por Hall e Taylor (2003), Immergut (2006) e outros, complementado pelo incrementalismo de Charles Lindblom (1959/2009; 1979/2009), este trabalho analisa a formação da agenda alusiva ao caos fundiário e ambiental da Amazônia, no começo do governo Lula (2003), a elaboração de alternativas de regularização fundiária e a tomada de decisão que resultou na PRFA (2009), identificando os atores chaves dentro e fora do governo, seus interesses e os espaços institucionais que ocuparam, as sequências históricas e os mecanismos causais que resultaram na política pública. O trabalho colheu evidências que corroboram a hipótese levantada a respeito da participação de membros da bancada ruralista, mas descortinou outros fatores que tiveram um peso muito maior dentro de um intricado xadrez político, como a pressão de vários atores que redundou em um humor amazônico para a regularização fundiária, a heterogeneidade da coalizão partidária do governo Lula, a saída da ministra Marina Silva do Ministério do Meio Ambiente (2008), o trabalho empreendedor o ministro Mangabeira Unger e de atores do Ministério do Desenvolvimento Agrário e do INCRA e disputas por jurisdição. / This thesis aims to analyze the decision-making processes, the causal conditions and the main actors, their interests and their influences that culminated in the creation of the The Amazonian Public Policy for Land Regularization (PRFA), known as Legal Land Program (Federal Law 11.952/2009), during the government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003-2011). The purpose of this public policy is to regularize consolidated occupations on public lands of the Union, located in the Legal Amazon, transferring them to private domain. But, at the same time that it has been criticized for possible legalization of land-grabbing and consummation of environmental damage, it has been receiving applauses for doing social justice. The central question that guides this research is the following: why did the Brazilian State, in 2009, adopt the PRFA? The hypotheses for the asked question consider that within the heterogeneous Lula government, the public policy was the result of the preponderance of actors who use the land as an instrument of power and perpetuation of the predatory exploitation pattern of natural resources (agribusiness sector, rural parliaments, landowners and land-grabber), or by the public policy derived from the State\'s concern to regulate small and medium occupations, and any legitimations of land grabbing and environmental damage would be the result of natural imperfections of the law. To do so, within the interdisciplinary perspective of Environmental Science, this thesis seeks to integrate knowledge of geography, legal science and, especially, political science, from where it has extracted the theoretical and methodological basis of analysis. Thus, in the context of the neoinstitutionalism, studied by Hall and Taylor (2003), Immergut (2006) and others, complemented by the incrementalism of Charles Lindblom (1959/2009, 1979/2009), this thesis analyzes the elaboration of the allusive agenda to the land and environmental chaos in Amazon in the beginning of Lula government (2003), the elaboration of land regularization alternatives and the decision-making process that resulted in the PRFA (2009), using theoretical elements of the Multiple Stream Model of John W. Kingdon (1995). In this sense, the thesis identifies and analyzes the key actors inside and outside the government, as well as the historical sequences and mechanisms, as well as the causal processes that have resulted in public policy. The thesis has gathered evidences that support the raised hypothesis regarding the participation of members of the ruralist parliments, but it revealed other factors that had a much greater weight within an intricate political chessboard, as the pressure of several actors that resulted in an amazonian mood for the land regularization, the heterogeneity of the party coalition of the Lula government, the departure of Minister Marina Silva from the Ministry of Environment (2008), the entrepreneurial work of Minister Mangabeira Unger, of actors from the Ministry of Agrarian Development and INCRA and jurisdiction disputes.

A presente Tese de Doutorado tem como objetivo analisar o comportamento do Brasil nas negociações comerciais multilaterais no sistema GATT/OMC, mediante o estudo do processo decisório doméstico que estruturou a atuação do país nas negociações agrícolas na Rodada Uruguai (1986-1994) e, na Rodada Doha (2001 2008), com foco no entendimento do processo de formulação das posições apresentadas, no Grupo de Cairns e, no G-20, respectivamente. A partir desses dois estudos de caso e da análise comparada do processo decisório, incorporando parte da literatura de Análise de Política Externa, pretendemos analisar, em dois momentos, no mesmo tema, a receptividade da política externa brasileira às pressões domésticas. O trabalho procura suprir certa lacuna da literatura sobre coalizões no sistema GATT/OMC, pois, a maior parte dos estudos tem dificuldade em incluir aspectos que se localizam, no interior dos sistemas decisórios nacionais, enquanto variáveis relevantes que ajudam a entender o comportamento dos países em coalizões. / The objective of this thesis is to analyze Brazilian behavior in multilateral trade negotiations in the GATT/WTO system, through the study of the domestic decision making process that structured the country positions in the agricultural negotiations during the Uruguay Round (1986 1994) and the Doha Round (2001 2008). Our focus is to understand the domestic decision making process that structured the positions presented by Brazil in the Cairns Group and in the G-20, respectively. From these two case studies, the comparative analysis of the decision making process and incorporating the Foreign Policy Analysis literature, we intend to analyze at two different moments on the same issue, the openness of the Brazilian Foreign Policy to domestic pressure. The work seeks to fill the gap in the literature on coalitions in the GATT/WTO since most studies do not include aspects related to the national decision making process as important variables useful to understand countries behavior in coalitions.

Afin d’expliquer la diversité des pratiques des agriculteurs, cette thèse explore le rôle des caractéristiques du processus de décision dans les choix opérationnels réalisés. Sur la base d’une méthode à deux volets (modélisation et enquêtes), nous avons proposé un modèle conceptuel du processus de prise de décision des agriculteurs, caractérisé les différences possibles au sein de ce processus (appelées modes de décisions), mis en évidence le lien entre ces modes et les pratiques, précisé les modalités de simplification du processus de décision et identifié de nouveaux leviers d’action pour l’accompagnement des agriculteurs. De nature générique, les modèles et les méthodes d’enquêtes proposés ont été appliqués à un cas d’étude qui à permis d’expliquer l’hétérogénéité des pratiques antifongiques des agriculteurs sur le blé tendre en MidiPyrénées par leurs caractéristiques personnelles, par les caractéristiques de leurs exploitations et par leurs modes de décision / In order to explain the diversity of farmers’ practices, this these explores the decision-making process features involved in operational choices. Using a modeling and survey-based approach, we built a conceptual model of the farmer’s decision-making process, distinguished different use of the decision-making process (referred to as decision modes), highlighted the link between thesedecision modes and farmers’ practices, showed some simplification made by farmers in their decision-making process and offered suggestions for improving the decision support means to farmers. Both the models and the survey design are generic. They have been applied in a case study that makes it possible to explain the heterogeneity of fungicide use on soft wheat between farmers in the Midi-Pyrénées region by their personal characteristics, the characteristics of their production situation and their decision modes.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-10-13T14:10:07Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Caroline de Andrea Picolli.pdf: 3118070 bytes, checksum: 3205a40c321003097e540fadeacc88ce (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-12-02 / The market requires decision making increasingly rapid and consistent. The technology has put the world connected in real-time: people, markets, exchanges and information. In agribusiness decisions depend on uncontrollable variables like: exchange rate, price, climate and environmental conditions. In this context of pressure and speed that the individual uses a process of simplifying decision making, using shortcuts to simplify the cognitive process (heuristics), which in turn can lead to errors (biase). In hedonic perspective taking decision to purchase a product is based on the set of attributes of each product, which in turn have different capacities to provide the benefits and satisfy a need. And these attributes are evaluated by their values, beliefs or past experiences of individuals. Thus for the study of decision making regarding herbicide rancher for grazing in Brazil was based on three grounds: attributes through the utility function that has a more economical approach (LANCASTER, 1971) given an emphasis on the attribute country of origin, the heuristics and biases that has a psychological approach ( HASTIE; DAWES , 2001) , and the third the values prevalent in cattle ranchers , also with a psychological approach ( HOMER; KAHLE, 1988, HG, 1982) . The methodology has two steps with the first qualitative approach using three methods: TCIP, Laddering and conjoint analysis. The second step has the data collection through an online survey with 75 farmers. To analyse the data were used factorial analysis and cluster analysis. At the end based on all the results we propose a model of farmer decision making regarding herbicide grassland in Brazil that includes: values, heuristics and biases prevalent; attributes that make up the image of the herbicide, the set of preferred attributes and sue respective levels, the resulting factors of decision making, as well as segments of ranchers. / O mercado exige tomadas de decisões cada vez mais rápidas e consistentes. A tecnologia colocou o mundo inteiro conectado em tempo real: as pessoas, os mercados, bolsas de valores e informações. No negócio agropecuário as decisões dependem ainda de variáveis incontroláveis como taxa cambial, preço, condições climáticas e ambientais. É neste contexto por pressão e agilidade que o indivíduo se utiliza de um processo de simplificação na tomada de decisão, utilizando atalhos para simplificar o processo cognitivo (heurísticas), que por sua vez podem induzir a erros (vieses). Na perspectiva hedônica a tomada de decisão de compra de um produto ocorre com base no conjunto de atributos de cada produto, que por sua vez possuem capacidades diferentes de prestar os benefícios anunciados e satisfazer uma necessidade. E estes atributos são avaliados por seus valores, crenças ou experiências passadas dos indivíduos. Desta forma este trabalho tem como objetivo caracterizar a tomada de decisão do pecuarista quanto ao herbicida para pastagem no Brasil. Para isso, o estudo se baseia em três fundamentos: atributos por meio da função utilidade que possui uma abordagem econômica (LANCASTER, 1971) com ênfase no atributo país de origem; as heurísticas e vieses que possui uma abordagem psicológica (HASTIE; DAWES, 2001); e os valores predominantes nos pecuaristas, também com uma abordagem psicológica (HOMER; KAHLE, 1988; GUTMAN, 1982). A metodologia possui duas etapas sendo a primeira com abordagem qualitativa que usa três métodos: TCIP, Laddering e Análise conjunta. E a segunda etapa a coleta é através de uma survey online com 75 pecuaristas e como análise dos dados são feitas análise descritiva, fatorial e de aglomerados. Ao final, com base em todos os resultados, propõe-se um modelo de tomada de decisão do pecuarista quanto ao herbicida para pastagem no Brasil que contempla: valores; heurísticas e vieses predominantes; atributos que configuram a imagem do herbicida; conjunto dos atributos preferenciais e seus respectivos níveis; os consequentes fatores da tomada de decisão; assim como os segmentos de pecuaristas.

O Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) é uma das instituições mais importantes do país, e tem recebido cada vez mais atenção da sociedade brasileira. Ano a ano, a corte é acionada para julgar dezenas de milhares de casos, muitos deles com impacto direto na vida econômica, política e social do país. Investigar quais são os fatores que influenciam o comportamento dos ministros do STF é fundamental para compreendermos o processo de tomada de decisões do Tribunal. Apesar de existirem estudos importantes sobre o resultado das ações de controle de constitucionalidade, ainda existe espaço para estudar o comportamento individual dos ministros. O objetivo do presente trabalho é analisar o comportamento individual dos ministros do STF, utilizando-se as votações dos ministros frente às ações de controle de constitucionalidade que foram decididas de forma colegiada. A proposta de trabalho é verificar como os ministros se agrupam e quais fatores influenciam sua divisão. Para isso, propomos a utilização do método de estimação de pontos ideias. Nossa hipótese primária de trabalho é que existe uma influência da indicação presidencial no comportamento dos ministros do Supremo Tribunal Federal. Dessa forma, haveria uma divisão da Corte entre os ministros nomeados por diferentes partidos. A hipótese secundária seria que as trajetórias profissionais dos ministros também influenciam em sua forma de decidir, sendo possível, portanto, identificar divisões entre os ministros a partir desta variável. Os resultados do presente trabalho indicam que variáveis associadas aos modelos atitudinais do comportamento judicial, partidos dos presidentes que indicaram os ministros, ideologia e filosofia judicial dos ministros, são variáveis mais relevantes para explicar as agrupamentos e dissensos no STF do que as que dizem respeito as trajetórias profissionais dos juízes. / The Supremo Tribunal Federal - STF (Federal Supreme Court) is one of the most relevant institutions in Brazil, and it has increasingly gained attention from Brazilian society. Year after year, the Court is demanded to rule thousands of cases, a lot of them with direct impact in the countrys economic political and social life. To investigate which factors influence the Justices behavior is paramount to understand the decision-making process of the Court. The goal of this work is to analyze the Justices individual behavior, by looking at the Justices individual vote in Constitutional Review cases that were decided in collegiate manner. This dissertation verifies how the Justices cluster themselves and which factors influence their division. For that, we employ the ideal point estimation method. Our primary hypothesis states that the presidential nomination exerts influence in the Justices behavior. In this way, it would be possible to identify a division in the Court among Justices nominated by different parties. Our secondary hypothesis states that the Justices professional background also exerts influence in how they decide, therefore making possible to identify divisions among Justices by taking this variable as a dividing line. The results of the present work indicate that the variables associated with the attitudinal models of judicial behavior, presidential party responsible for Justice nomination, ideology and Justices judicial philosophy are more relevant variables to explain the clusters and dissensus in STF than variables linked to magistrates professional background.

O presente trabalho analisa o papel desempenhado pelo Congresso Mexicano em temas de política externa no período de 1994-2006 (LVI a LIX Legislaturas), correspondente aos mandatos de Ernesto Zedillo e Vicente Fox, à luz dos processos de liberalização econômica e política experimentados pelo país nas últimas décadas. Adotando como referencial os indicadores nível de atividade e nível de divergência, a hipótese formulada é que, durante o período estudado, o Congresso mexicano apresentou um elevado grau de ativismo, mas sua assertividade foi baixa. Nos momentos de maior confronto com o Executivo, o Congresso demonstrou uma reduzida capacidade institucional de impor suas preferências. As limitações dos congressistas para atuar no domínio da política externa estariam relacionadas a fatores estruturais, como os custos de rejeição de um tratado internacional, e conjunturais, a exemplo da dificuldade de construir consensos no interior das Casas Legislativas a respeito de qual seria o papel do Congresso nesta seara. / This work analyses the role of Mexican Congress in foreign policy issues during the period of 1994-2006 (LVI-LIX Legislature), corresponding to the presidencies of Ernesto Zedillo and Vicente Fox, based on the processes of economic and political liberalization faced by the country in the last decades. Taking into account indicating levels of activity on foreign policy issues and disagreement over foreign policy, the hypothesis formulated is that, during the period studied, the Mexican Congress has shown a high level of activism, however its assertiveness was low. In the moments of confrontation with Executive, the Congress has shown little institutional capacity to impose its preferences. The congressmen limitations to act in the realm of foreign policy could be related to structural factors, such as the costs of an international treaty´s rejection, or conjunctural, such as the difficult of constructing consensus in the Upper and Low chambers about what Congress´s role in foreign affairs issues should be.