Contexte général La Côte d'Ivoire est un pays de l’Afrique de l’Ouest qui a décidé, depuis 2001, d'étendre la couverture des prestations de santé à toute sa population. En effet, cette réforme du système de santé avait pour but de fournir, à chaque ivoirien, une couverture médicale et pharmaceutique. Toutefois, la mise en œuvre de cette réforme était difficile car, contrairement aux pays développés, les pays en développement ont un secteur « informel » échappant à la législation du travail et occupant une place importante. En conséquence, il a été recommandé qu’il y ait deux caisses d'assurance santé, une pour le secteur formel (fonctionnaires) et l'autre pour le secteur informel. Ces caisses auraient légitimité en ce qui a trait aux décisions de remboursement de médicaments. D’ores-et-déjà, il existe une mutuelle de santé appelée la Mutuelle Générale des Fonctionnaires et Agents de l'État de Côte d'Ivoire (MUGEFCI), chargée de couvrir les frais médicaux et pharmaceutiques des fonctionnaires et agents de l’Etat. Celle-ci connaît, depuis quelques années, des contraintes budgétaires. De plus, le processus actuel de remboursement des médicaments, dans cette organisation, ne prend pas en considération les valeurs implicites liées aux critères d'inscription au formulaire. Pour toutes ces raisons, la MUGEFCI souhaite se doter d’une nouvelle liste de médicaments remboursables, qui comprendrait des médicaments sécuritaires avec un impact majeur sur la santé (service médical rendu), à un coût raisonnable. Dans le cadre de cette recherche, nous avons développé une méthode de sélection des médicaments pour des fins de remboursement, dans un contexte de pays à faibles revenus. Cette approche a ensuite été appliquée dans le cadre de l’élaboration d’une nouvelle liste de médicaments remboursables pour la MUGEFCI. Méthode La méthode de sélection des médicaments remboursables, développée dans le cadre de cette recherche, est basée sur l'Analyse de Décision Multicritère (ADM). Elle s’articule autour de quatre étapes: (1) l'identification et la pondération des critères pertinents d'inscription des médicaments au formulaire (combinant revue de la littérature et recherche qualitative, suivies par la réalisation d’une expérience de choix discrets); (2) la détermination d'un ensemble de traitements qui sont éligibles à un remboursement prioritaire; (3) l’attribution de scores aux traitements selon leurs performances sur les niveaux de variation de chaque critère, et (4) le classement des traitements par ordre de priorité de remboursement (classement des traitements selon un score global, obtenu après avoir additionné les scores pondérés des traitements). Après avoir défini la liste des médicaments remboursables en priorité, une analyse d’impact budgétaire a été réalisée. Celle-ci a été effectuée afin de déterminer le coût par patient lié à l'utilisation des médicaments figurant sur la liste, selon la perspective de la MUGEFCI. L’horizon temporel était de 1 an et l'analyse portait sur tous les traitements admissibles à un remboursement prioritaire par la MUGEFCI. En ce qui concerne la population cible, elle était composée de personnes assurées par la MUGEFCI et ayant un diagnostic positif de maladie prioritaire en 2008. Les coûts considérés incluaient ceux des consultations médicales, des tests de laboratoire et des médicaments. Le coût par patient, résultant de l'utilisation des médicaments figurant sur la liste, a ensuite été comparé à la part des dépenses par habitant (per capita) allouée à la santé en Côte d’Ivoire. Cette comparaison a été effectuée pour déterminer un seuil en deçà duquel la nouvelle liste des médicaments remboursables en priorité était abordable pour la MUGEFCI. Résultats Selon les résultats de l’expérience de choix discrets, réalisée auprès de professionnels de la santé en Côte d'Ivoire, le rapport coût-efficacité et la sévérité de la maladie sont les critères les plus importants pour le remboursement prioritaire des médicaments. Cela se traduit par une préférence générale pour les antipaludiques, les traitements pour l'asthme et les antibiotiques indiqués pour les infections urinaires. En outre, les résultats de l’analyse d’impact budgétaire suggèrent que le coût par patient lié à l'utilisation des médicaments figurant sur la liste varierait entre 40 et 160 dollars américains. Etant donné que la part des dépenses par habitant allouées à la santé en Côte d’Ivoire est de 66 dollars américains, l’on pourrait conclure que la nouvelle liste de médicaments remboursables serait abordable lorsque l'impact économique réel de l’utilisation des médicaments par patient est en deçà de ces 66 dollars américains. Au delà de ce seuil, la MUGEFCI devra sélectionner les médicaments remboursables en fonction de leur rang ainsi que le coût par patient associé à l’utilisation des médicaments. Plus précisément, cette sélection commencera à partir des traitements dans le haut de la liste de médicaments prioritaires et prendra fin lorsque les 66 dollars américains seront épuisés. Conclusion Cette étude fait la démonstration de ce qu’il est possible d'utiliser l’analyse de décision multicritère pour développer un formulaire pour les pays à faibles revenus, la Côte d’Ivoire en l’occurrence. L'application de cette méthode est un pas en avant vers la transparence dans l'élaboration des politiques de santé dans les pays en développement. / Background Côte d'Ivoire is a West African country that decided, since 2001, to expand its health coverage benefit packages to the entire population. Indeed, this health care system reform was aimed at providing each Ivorian with medical and pharmaceutical coverage. However, the implementation of this reform was challenging since, unlike developed countries, developing countries have an « informal » sector escaping the labour law and occupying an important place. As a result, it was recommended to create two health insurance funds, one for the formal sector (government officials) and the other for the informal sector. These funds would have legitimacy in regard to drug reimbursement decision-making. There is, already, a health insurance fund called the Mutuelle Générale des Fonctionnaires et Agents de l’État de Côte d’Ivoire (MUGEFCI), responsible for covering medical and pharmaceutical expenses of government officials and agents. The latter is experiencing budgetary constraints. Moreover, the current process of drug reimbursement, in this organization, does not take into account the implicit values associated to formulary listing criteria. For all these reasons, the MUGEFCI aims at developing a new list of reimbursable drugs, which would include safe drugs with a major impact on health (high medical service), at reasonable costs. In this research, we have developed a formulary listing framework for low-income countries. This framework was then applied to the development of a new formulary for the MUGEFCI. Methods The formulary listing framework, based on Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), was composed of four steps: (1) the identification and weighting of relevant formulary listing criteria (combining both literature review and qualitative research approaches, followed by the conduct of a discrete choice experiment); (2) the determination of priority diagnostic/treatments to be assessed (determination of a set of treatments that are eligible for priority reimbursement); (3) the treatments scoring (assignment of numerical values to the treatments’ performance on the variation levels of each criterion), and (4) the treatments ranking by priority order of reimbursement (ranking of treatments according to an overall value, obtained after summing up the weighted treatment scores). After having defined the priority list of reimbursable drugs, we conducted a budget impact analysis (BIA). The latter was carried out to determine the costs per patient resulting from the use of drugs included on the new formulary, according to the perspective of the MUGEFCI. The temporal framework was 1 year and the analysis included all the treatments eligible for a priority reimbursement by the MUGEFCI. As for the target population, it was composed of people (MUGEFCI enrolees) with a positive diagnostic of priority diseases in 2008. The costs considered in this BIA included those of medical consultations, laboratory tests and medications. The cost per patient, resulting from the use of drugs on the formulary, was then compared to the per capita health care spending in Côte d'Ivoire. This comparison was made to assess the extent to which the new priority list of reimbursable drugs was affordable for the MUGEFCI. Results According to the results of the discrete choice experiment, carried out among health professionals in Côte d’Ivoire, cost-effectiveness and severity of diseases are the most significant criteria for priority reimbursement of drugs. This translates into a general preference for antimalarial, treatments for asthma and antibiotics for urinary infection. Moreover, the results of the BIA suggest that the cost per patient, resulting from the use of drugs on the formulary, would vary between 40 and 160 US dollars. Since the per capita health care spending in Côte d'Ivoire is 66 US dollars, one could conclude that the new priority list of reimbursable drugs will be affordable when the real economic impact per patient of drugs is under 66 US dollars. Beyond this threshold, the MUGEFCI will have to select the reimbursable drugs according to their rank in the priority list and their respective economic impact per patient (cost per patient). Particularly, this selection will start from the treatment on the top of the list and will end when the 66 US dollars are exhausted. Conclusion This study demonstrates that it is possible to use multi-criteria decision analysis to develop a formulary for low-income countries, Côte d'Ivoire for instance. The application of this method is a step towards transparency in the formulation of health policies in developing countries.

Le problème de tarification qui nous intéresse ici consiste à maximiser le revenu généré par les usagers d'un réseau de transport. Pour se rendre à leurs destinations, les usagers font un choix de route et utilisent des arcs sur lesquels nous imposons des tarifs. Chaque route est caractérisée (aux yeux de l'usager) par sa "désutilité", une mesure de longueur généralisée tenant compte à la fois des tarifs et des autres coûts associés à son utilisation. Ce problème a surtout été abordé sous une modélisation déterministe de la demande selon laquelle seules des routes de désutilité minimale se voient attribuer une mesure positive de flot. Le modèle déterministe se prête bien à une résolution globale, mais pèche par manque de réalisme. Nous considérons ici une extension probabiliste de ce modèle, selon laquelle les usagers d'un réseau sont alloués aux routes d'après un modèle de choix discret logit. Bien que le problème de tarification qui en résulte est non linéaire et non convexe, il conserve néanmoins une forte composante combinatoire que nous exploitons à des fins algorithmiques. Notre contribution se répartit en trois articles. Dans le premier, nous abordons le problème d'un point de vue théorique pour le cas avec une paire origine-destination. Nous développons une analyse de premier ordre qui exploite les propriétés analytiques de l'affectation logit et démontrons la validité de règles de simplification de la topologie du réseau qui permettent de réduire la dimension du problème sans en modifier la solution. Nous établissons ensuite l'unimodalité du problème pour une vaste gamme de topologies et nous généralisons certains de nos résultats au problème de la tarification d'une ligne de produits. Dans le deuxième article, nous abordons le problème d'un point de vue numérique pour le cas avec plusieurs paires origine-destination. Nous développons des algorithmes qui exploitent l'information locale et la parenté des formulations probabilistes et déterministes. Un des résultats de notre analyse est l'obtention de bornes sur l'erreur commise par les modèles combinatoires dans l'approximation du revenu logit. Nos essais numériques montrent qu'une approximation combinatoire rudimentaire permet souvent d'identifier des solutions quasi-optimales. Dans le troisième article, nous considérons l'extension du problème à une demande hétérogène. L'affectation de la demande y est donnée par un modèle de choix discret logit mixte où la sensibilité au prix d'un usager est aléatoire. Sous cette modélisation, l'expression du revenu n'est pas analytique et ne peut être évaluée de façon exacte. Cependant, nous démontrons que l'utilisation d'approximations non linéaires et combinatoires permet d'identifier des solutions quasi-optimales. Finalement, nous en profitons pour illustrer la richesse du modèle, par le biais d'une interprétation économique, et examinons plus particulièrement la contribution au revenu des différents groupes d'usagers. / The network pricing problem consists in finding tolls to set on a subset of a network's arcs, so to maximize a revenue expression. A fixed demand of commuters, going from their origins to their destinations, is assumed. Each commuter chooses a path of minimal "disutility", a measure of discomfort associated with the use of a path and which takes into account fixed costs and tolls. A deterministic modelling of commuter behaviour is mostly found in the literature, according to which positive flow is only assigned to \og shortest\fg\: paths. Even though the determinist pricing model is amenable to global optimization by the use of enumeration techniques, it has often been criticized for its lack of realism. In this thesis, we consider a probabilistic extension of this model involving a logit dicrete choice model. This more realistic model is non-linear and non-concave, but still possesses strong combinatorial features. Our analysis spans three separate articles. In the first we tackle the problem from a theoretical perspective for the case of a single origin-destination pair and develop a first order analysis that exploits the logit assignment analytical properties. We show the validity of simplification rules to the network topology which yield a reduction in the problem dimensionality. This enables us to establish the problem's unimodality for a wide class of topologies. We also establish a parallel with the product-line pricing problem, for which we generalize some of our results. In our second article, we address the problem from a numerical point of view for the case where multiple origin-destination pairs are present. We work out algorithms that exploit both local information and the pricing problem specific combinatorial features. We provide theoretical results which put in perspective the deterministic and probabilistic models, as well as numerical evidence according to which a very simple combinatorial approximation can lead to the best solutions. Also, our experiments clearly indicate that under any reasonable setting, the logit pricing problem is much smoother, and admits less optima then its deterministic counterpart. The third article is concerned with an extension to an heterogeneous demand resulting from a mixed-logit discrete choice model. Commuter price sensitivity is assumed random and the corresponding revenue expression admits no closed form expression. We devise nonlinear and combinatorial approximation schemes for its evaluation and optimization, which allow us to obtain quasi-optimal solutions. Numerical experiments here indicate that the most realistic model yields the best solution, independently of how well the model can actually be solved. We finally illustrate how the output of the model can be used for economic purposes by evaluating the contributions to the revenue of various commuter groups.

Die vorliegende Studienarbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Fragestellung, inwiefern sich Revealed-Preference-Daten aus der deutschen Mobilitätsbefragung "Mobilität in Städten" SrV 2008 dazu eignen, um basierend auf denen im Datensatz enthaltenen Wegen Verkehrsmittelwahlmodelle zu schätzen. Dazu wurden Wegedaten aus der Befragung verwendet, und die Wahlalternativen mit Hilfe der Google Directions API rekonstruiert. Mit den rekonstruierten Variablen Reisezeit und Reisekosten sowie verschiedenen sozioökonomischen und externen Variablen aus SrV 2008 wurden verschiedene Wahlmodelle geschätzt. Durch schrittweises Hinzufügen der Variablen konnte das Modell immer weiter verbessert werden. Wie zu erwarten, erwiesen sich dabei die Reisezeit und die Reisekosten als hoch signifikant. Von den restlichen Variablen waren jedoch lediglich das Geschlecht der befragten Person sowie die Wettersituation zum Zeitpunkt der Wahlentscheidung signifikant. Für das finale Modell wurden Zeitkostensätze errechnet und mit verschiedenen europäischen Studien verglichen. Die errechneten Zeitkostensätze erwiesen sich dabei als plausibel. Die SrV-Daten eignen sich also für die Schätzung von Wahlmodellen. / The following thesis analyzes, if revealed preference data from the German mobility survey "Mobilität in Städten" SrV 2008 is suited to estimate mode choice models. For that purpose, trip data from the survey was used and the different choice alternatives were reconstructed with the Google Directions API. Several mode choice models were estimated with the help of the reconstructed variables travel time and travel costs plus several socioeconomic and external variables from SrV 2008. The variables were added to the model step by step, thereby the quality of the model improved. As expected, travel time and travel costs were highly significant. However from the remaining variables only the gender of the person and the weather at the time of the trip were significant. For the final model, values of time were calculated and these were compared with values from different European studies. The calculated values of time proved to be feasible. Therefore, SrV data is suited to be used for mode choice models.

國內對於住宅需求的相關研究，多偏向住宅價格、合理房價與購買力、消費量等研究，但是對於消費者住宅選擇行為的研究則較少見。住宅需求的主體以個體的家戶為單位，家戶在所得的限制之下，追求效用的最大化，做出遷移決策、區位選擇、增建決策等。 觀察台灣的都市現象，台北市的房價所得比高達8倍以上，不但居全台灣之冠，更遠超過歐美國家的水準，國內高房價的壓力會影響家戶的遷移成本與區位選擇。另外，在台北市的住宅類型八成以上為公寓大廈，只能從陽台或屋頂平台小幅增建，增加的住宅面積有限，未申請建照的增建多屬不合法的違建行為，無法自由調整，因此家戶採取增建方式調整住宅需求的行為會受到限制。而國內住、商、工混雜，土地相容使用，就業區位可能與住宅區位相距不遠，因此通勤成本可能較低，這些與國外迥異的都市背景，使得本研究想解構在台灣家戶的住宅調整決策與區位選擇行為。 本研究將家戶的生命週期類型與住宅遷移、區位選擇、增建決策相連結，探討每個特殊的生命週期家戶，其住宅調整決策的差異，分析各生命週期家戶的區隔，其結果有助於了解住宅次市場區隔以及住宅下濾、換屋行為。進一步探討家戶的住宅區位選擇: 台北市女性就業，使家庭所得、通勤成本增加，其住宅區位選擇與通勤行為應與單薪家戶不同，並驗證是否受到房價與通勤成本的取捨、相關資源與夫妻決策權力、以及家庭責任義務的影響。最後，探討戶長及配偶對於區位選擇的影響，驗證戶長配偶模式是否比過去研究以戶長屬性代替家戶屬性的模式較佳，分析家戶屬性所引申的住宅需求如何影響家戶的住宅區位選擇，以及分析夫妻的資源與決策影響力的性別差異關係。女性身為戶長，其決策影響力的消長應與一般傳統家戶的成員不同，分析是否產生女性特殊的住宅區位需求，其結果可以作為住宅政策的參考。 本文回顧相關文獻，發現單從經濟學的模式不足以說明家戶的選擇行為，而社會學與性別方面的議題和假說也未深入探討家戶的住宅區位選擇，因此考量現實的背景，希望從實證主義，剖析不同生命週期家戶的住宅調整方式，以及從大幅改變住宅屬性的遷移方式中，進一步解構家戶的住宅區位選擇行為與通勤的決策，並討論家庭責任、性別差異等相關課題。實證資料係採1990年台閩地區戶口及住宅普查台北市的資料，探討家戶對於自有住宅的調整決策，將台北市各行政區中位置相鄰、性質相近者分為六區，作為住宅區位選擇的替選區位。本研究以效用理論為基礎，分析家戶的遷移決策、遷移選擇一個新的住宅區位、以及增建決策等，追求家戶住宅需求效用的最大化，以不連續選擇模型進行實證。 結果發現高所得家戶選擇遷移的機率較高，低所得、或小孩正在成長的家戶較傾向選擇增建，住宅區位選擇的結果，也可印證人口往新興發展的郊區移動，老舊的西區流動性較差，應用在都市發展的政策上，可以針對資源的流動與新興地區的住宅及公共設施建設、交通運輸建設等相關政策做出建議。 另外，藉由女性的決策權力與需求的結果，發現女性就業的特性與所得資源對於區位、通勤選擇的影響力較低，反而是照顧小孩的家庭責任是關鍵因素，女性同時在外工作與擔任母職的角色，非常需要工作地點與住宅區為方便的連結，工作與居住分離的都市形式或許不敷台灣社會的需要，方便的交通與大眾運輸工具、以及價格合理且鄰近社區的兒童扥育設施都是女性急需的公共服務。 同時考慮夫妻兩位家戶成員的戶長配偶模式比傳統的戶長模式較能解釋住宅區位選擇的決策，但是在1990年當時的已婚女性多是無酬的家屬工作者或未就業，因此較沒有顯著的經濟影響力，惟獨年輕、教育程度較高的女性展現較不同於傳統的決策行為，而且以女性為戶長的家戶的確有孑然不同的區位選擇影響力，與台北市全體家戶、以男性為戶長的家戶相比，女性的戶長影響力較大。 / This dissertation consisted of four relative essays. Due to lack of housing adjustment decisions and location choice issues in Taiwan’s housing research, this study focus on some specific background in Taipei City, and reference to the existing studies. The relative resources and couple’s decision-making power effect is an important discussion point to which I drew attention. Using the discrete choice model and the data from “1990 Census of Population and Housing in Taipei”, the empirical studies are tested. As we known, the housing price in Taipei is the highest in Taiwan, households choose moving decision would pay higher adjustment cost. The most popular housing types in Taipei are apartments, the addition behavior without government permission is normally illegal. But under the constraint of affordability, some families would choose home improvement instead of moving to satisfy their housing needs for saving adjusting cost. In the first paper, I examined different choices of moving decision, housing location choice, and addition decision, which every household made. Households in different life cycle stages, indicating different income level, number of members, marriage status or other specific characteristics, they how to adjust their housing demand and make their housing decisions. The results will provide housing market segmentation information and explain the housing filtering behaviors. This second paper explores the effects on housing location choice in single and double income households in Taipei, and examines the relative hypotheses, such as relative resources and couple’s decision-making power, and household responsibility constrains. Households’ residential location choice are subjected to income constrains, facing the trade-off between housing price and commuting cost. Husbands who are usually the financial resources of a family economy get more decision- making power than wives. However, it would not play more significant role on location and commuting choices for wife to taking care of children. The results would suggest the government to provide convenient public transportation mode and children care service. The last two papers examine the impact of aggregated needs of household members on the choice of housing location in Taipei. Especially the discussion of family decision- making issues was raised. The results indicate that the choice of housing location is significantly impacted by the age, family origin, past housing location, education and occupation status, and the location of workplaces of both spouses.　We also find that this decision is more significantly influenced by the attributes of the male spouse□than the female.　However, among the households with a female household head, the female spouse□characteristics are more likely to be significant.　Our results also offer a snapshot of today□Taiwanese culture that is dramatically different from the commonly understood male-dominance in the Chinese tradition.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T19:33:12Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 CARDOSO_Diego_2013.pdf: 1706794 bytes, checksum: 52ad0ebf4915ad86f6ac9a9529176b01 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-05-20 / Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos / The goal of competition policy, also known as antitrust policy, is promoting the welfare and economic efficiency by preserving fair competition in markets. Merger control is one of the main responsibilities of antitrust institutions. Prohibitions and restrictions of merger operations affect market structures, thus making these decisions relevant to economic agents. This Master's thesis analyzes the decisions made by Brazilian antitrust institutions regarding merger processes. Data was collected from public documents issued from 2004 to 2011. Bivariate analysis, discrete choice models and classification decision trees show that these merger control decisions are consistent with Brazilian antitrust law. Consistent competition policy reduces uncertainty, aligns expectations and increases the efficiency of antitrust law enforcement. Therefore, this research contributes to better understanding Brazilian competition policy related to merger control and its decision drivers. / As políticas de defesa da concorrência, ou políticas antitruste, visam ao maior bem-estar social por meio da manutenção de ambientes concorrenciais que promovam a eficiência econômica. No Brasil, os órgãos que compõem o Sistema Brasileiro de Defesa da Concorrência são os responsáveis pelas decisões sobre os agentes econômicos a fim de atingir os objetivos das políticas antitruste. Nesse âmbito, as decisões que influenciam a estrutura de mercados por meio das restrições e vetos a processos como fusões e aquisições de empresas - os julgamentos de Atos de Concentração - apresentam elevada relevância. Este trabalho realiza uma avaliação das decisões do Sistema Brasileiro de Defesa da Concorrência relativas aos Atos de Concentração. Para tal, foram coletados dados a partir dos documentos públicos emitidos pelos órgãos antitruste no período entre 2004 e 2011. Por meio da aplicação de modelos de regressão de escolha discreta e árvores de decisão induzidas, verificou-se que tais decisões são consistentes com as regras antitruste brasileiras. A consistência com regras estabelecidas possibilita uma maior eficiência na aplicação das políticas de defesa da concorrência, uma vez que reduz as incertezas dos agentes econômicos, alinha as expectativas e facilita a condução dos processos. Nesse sentido, esta investigação contribui para uma melhor compreensão dos fatores que influenciam as decisões dos órgãos brasileiros de defesa da concorrência, oferecendo também indicativos que auxiliam na verificação da eficiência da aplicação de tais políticas.

Submitted by Ramon Francisco Fernandez Gonzalez (ragonzalez82@hotmail.com) on 2016-04-29T01:08:08Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Versão Completa - Dissertação Ramon F F Gonzalez - Os determinantes da não racionalidade dos investidores no mercado de fundos brasileiros.pdf: 1256743 bytes, checksum: 8aee8712ff228f642b076f195caf2fce (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2016-05-02T13:22:46Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Versão Completa - Dissertação Ramon F F Gonzalez - Os determinantes da não racionalidade dos investidores no mercado de fundos brasileiros.pdf: 1256743 bytes, checksum: 8aee8712ff228f642b076f195caf2fce (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2016-05-06T20:17:47Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Versão Completa - Dissertação Ramon F F Gonzalez - Os determinantes da não racionalidade dos investidores no mercado de fundos brasileiros.pdf: 1256743 bytes, checksum: 8aee8712ff228f642b076f195caf2fce (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-05-09T12:18:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Versão Completa - Dissertação Ramon F F Gonzalez - Os determinantes da não racionalidade dos investidores no mercado de fundos brasileiros.pdf: 1256743 bytes, checksum: 8aee8712ff228f642b076f195caf2fce (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-05-25 / In this paper we seek to identify the determinants of demand for mutual funds in Brazil through the logit model, which is widely used in the theory of industrial organizations. Whenever possible we perform 'links' with the main concepts of behavioral finance. Thus, we clarify the main variables that impact variations of 'market share' in the mutual funds industry. We conclude that the main indicators observed by investors at the time of decision-making, are the CDI, inflation, the real interest rate, the variation of the dollar and the stock market, on the other hand the accumulated return of the last three months is factor decisive for investors to apply or redeem an investment fund. Risk variables and expected return we thought to have a strong impact, not significant for variations of 'share'. / Neste trabalho buscamos identificar os principais determinantes da demanda por fundos de investimento no Brasil através do modelo Logit, que é bastante utilizado na teoria das organizações industriais. Sempre que possível realizamos 'links' com os principais conceitos de finanças comportamentais. Assim, conseguimos aclarar as principais variáveis que impactam as variações de 'market-share' na indústria de fundos de investimento. Concluímos que os principais indicadores observados pelos investidores no momento de tomada de decisão são o CDI, a inflação, a taxa real de juros, a variação do dólar e da bolsa de valores, por outro lado a rentabilidade acumulada dos últimos três meses é fator decisivo para que o investidor aplique ou resgate um fundo de investimento. Variáveis de risco e de retorno esperado que imaginávamos ter forte impacto, não se mostraram significativas para as variações de 'share'. / En este trabajo buscamos identificar los determinantes de la demanda de los principales fondos de inversión en Brasil através del modelo Logit, que es ampliamente utilizado en la teoría de las organizaciones industriales. Siempre que posible hemos realizado 'links' con los principales conceptos de las finanzas comportamentales. Por lo tanto, fue posible aclarar las principales variables a que las variaciones de impacto de 'cuota de mercado' en la industria de fondos de inversión. Llegamos a la conclusión de que los principales indicadores observados por los inversores en el momento de la toma de decisiones, es el CDI, la inflación, la tasa de interés real, la variación del dólar y el mercado de valores, por otro lado, la rentabilidad acumulada de los últimos tres meses es un factor decisiva para que los inversionistas invirtan o salgan de un fondo de inversión. Las variables de riesgo y rendimiento esperado que pensabamos tener un impacto fuerte, no se demonstraran significativas para las variaciones de las cuotas de mercado.

Submitted by Guilherme Zamur (guizamur@gmail.com) on 2017-04-17T19:14:08Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2017_02 Master thesis vsubmt 3.pdf: 2110714 bytes, checksum: 15aa0ff21b00159ea7304482578f9ade (MD5) / Rejected by Pamela Beltran Tonsa (pamela.tonsa@fgv.br), reason: Boa tarde Guilherme, Para que possamos aceitar seu trabalho é necessário algumas correções. Seu nome no trabalho deve estar em negrito. Na folha de assinatura não pode ter SÃO PAULO 2017. A palavra AGRADECIMENTO deve estar em negrito e dever ter um agradecimento em INGLÊS e um PORTUGUÊS. Por seu trabalho ser em Inglês, deve seguir a seguinte ordem. ( lembrando que ABSTRACT E RESUMO deve estar em negrito ) ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ( Inglês ) AGRADECIMENTO ( Português ) A Citação. ABSTRACT RESUMO. Apos as correções por gentileza postar novamente. Obs: Lembrando que deverá imprimir apos a aprovação, ou seja, quando tiver a url. Qualquer duvida estamos a disposição. att. Pâmela Tonsa on 2017-04-17T20:22:15Z (GMT) / Submitted by Guilherme Zamur (guizamur@gmail.com) on 2017-04-17T23:43:30Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2017_02 Master thesis vsubmt 3.pdf: 2118517 bytes, checksum: 66bc86215a1faaaaba1fef6e6fbdad27 (MD5) / Rejected by Pamela Beltran Tonsa (pamela.tonsa@fgv.br), reason: Bom dia Guilherme, Notei que nesta submissão não foi colocado as palavras chaves ( inglês e português ) Apos o ajuste, você deverá fazer a nova submissão. Fico no aguardo para dar andamento ao processo. Qualquer duvida estamos a disposição. Att, Pâmela Tonsa on 2017-04-18T13:05:32Z (GMT) / Submitted by Guilherme Zamur (guizamur@gmail.com) on 2017-04-18T21:11:06Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2017_02 Master thesis vsubmt 3.pdf: 2118517 bytes, checksum: 66bc86215a1faaaaba1fef6e6fbdad27 (MD5) / Rejected by Pamela Beltran Tonsa (pamela.tonsa@fgv.br), reason: Bom dia Guilherme, Preciso que você coloque as palavras chaves no RESUMO / ABSTRACT. Apos a inclusão destes itens, você deverá fazer novamente a submissão. Qualquer duvida estamos a disposição. Pâmela Tonsa 3799-7852 on 2017-04-19T11:25:08Z (GMT) / Submitted by Guilherme Zamur (guizamur@gmail.com) on 2017-04-19T16:54:32Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2017_02 Master thesis vsubmt 3.pdf: 2115690 bytes, checksum: c702dcf002c2f3a41bb1ef842d32bf1b (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Pamela Beltran Tonsa (pamela.tonsa@fgv.br) on 2017-04-19T17:53:32Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 2017_02 Master thesis vsubmt 3.pdf: 2115690 bytes, checksum: c702dcf002c2f3a41bb1ef842d32bf1b (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-04-20T12:24:46Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2017_02 Master thesis vsubmt 3.pdf: 2115690 bytes, checksum: c702dcf002c2f3a41bb1ef842d32bf1b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-03-13 / Com base na teoria institucional e na teoria social cognitiva, foi realizado um experimento de escolha discreta com 128 gestores americanos, 105 brasileiros e 109 indianos para testar três causas alternativas de não atendimento por fornecedores às práticas de sustentabilidade da empresa focal da cadeia de suprimentos. Os resultados fornecem evidências preliminares de que o background institucional destes gestores pode impedir que eles percebam quando não cumprem as práticas de sustentabilidade da empresa compradora (focal) e de que certas configurações da cadeia de suprimentos influenciam a propensão a não cumprir as políticas de sustentabilidade da empresa focal. A generalização destes resultados é limitada devido à metodologia experimental utilizada. / Based on institutional theory and social cognitive theory, a discrete-choice experiment was conducted with 128 American, 105 Brazilian and 109 Indian managers to test three alternative causes of suppliers’ non-compliance with supply chain focal company’s sustainability practices. Results provide preliminary evidence to support that managers’ institutional background may prevent them from perceiving their non-compliance with buyer (focal) company’s sustainability practices and that certain supply chain configurations influence their likelihood not to comply with focal company’s sustainability policies. Generalization of such findings is limited because of the experimental methodology used.

Submitted by Miguel Stevanato Jacob (miguelsjacob@gmail.com) on 2018-02-28T20:13:31Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Jacob,S-Miguel_DissertaçãoMestrado_v18.pdf: 3304299 bytes, checksum: 084b8f9aa931deaa1ff15175ff93b4d9 (MD5) Script_1_Estimations.R: 255806 bytes, checksum: 493b1934f1ee31b494652755d301b09f (MD5) / Rejected by Pamela Beltran Tonsa (pamela.tonsa@fgv.br), reason: Conforme orientação. Por favor ajustar e submeter novamente. att, on 2018-03-01T20:10:31Z (GMT) / Submitted by Miguel Stevanato Jacob (miguelsjacob@gmail.com) on 2018-03-01T21:09:09Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Script_1_Estimations.R: 255806 bytes, checksum: 493b1934f1ee31b494652755d301b09f (MD5) Jacob,S-Miguel_DissertaçãoMestrado_v19.pdf: 3303324 bytes, checksum: c0955536ae88818027fe759bea5bff44 (MD5) / Rejected by Pamela Beltran Tonsa (pamela.tonsa@fgv.br), reason: Prezado Miguel, Favor verificar o e-mail enviado a você. Fazer os ajustes e submeter novamente, Pâmela. on 2018-03-02T13:05:29Z (GMT) / Submitted by Miguel Stevanato Jacob (miguelsjacob@gmail.com) on 2018-03-02T18:03:05Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Script_1_Estimations.R: 255806 bytes, checksum: 493b1934f1ee31b494652755d301b09f (MD5) Jacob,S-Miguel_DissertaçãoMestrado_v19.pdf: 3625404 bytes, checksum: 843fc5b8d3ff530a492f703ee7a00950 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Pamela Beltran Tonsa (pamela.tonsa@fgv.br) on 2018-03-02T18:21:24Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Script_1_Estimations.R: 255806 bytes, checksum: 493b1934f1ee31b494652755d301b09f (MD5) Jacob,S-Miguel_DissertaçãoMestrado_v19.pdf: 3625404 bytes, checksum: 843fc5b8d3ff530a492f703ee7a00950 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-03-02T20:16:09Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Script_1_Estimations.R: 255806 bytes, checksum: 493b1934f1ee31b494652755d301b09f (MD5) Jacob,S-Miguel_DissertaçãoMestrado_v19.pdf: 3625404 bytes, checksum: 843fc5b8d3ff530a492f703ee7a00950 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-02-08 / São Paulo se expandiu rapidamente durante o Século XX e se tornou uma das maiores cidades do mundo, com aproximadamente 12 milhões de habitantes que realizam cerca de 25 milhões de deslocamentos urbanos diariamente. Seu sistema de transporte público (ônibus e metrô) é responsável por 37% dessas viagens e é notavelmente importante, especialmente para seus usuários intensivos – majoritariamente pessoas pobres cujos deslocamentos dependem dele. Os subsídios ao transporte e o valor da tarifa vêm se colocando no centro de um debate sobre política urbana durante os últimos anos. A Prefeitura de São Paulo gasta quase 7% de seu orçamento em subsídios diretos à tarifa de ônibus que se mantém estagnada em termos reais desde 2005 – empreendendo um valor três vezes maior do que era há dez anos. Ao mesmo tempo, o sistema de ônibus em São Paulo aparenta ser inefetivo em tirar carros das ruas. O ambiente urbano da cidade e a sustentabilidade fiscal desse sistema podem ser colocados em risco se essa situação permanecer, uma vez que um ciclo vicioso de quedas no nível de usuários e aumentos no subsídio podem comprometer o transporte público. O preço e a forma de precificação da tarifa são pontos centrais nessa questão, uma vez que a literatura em finanças púbicas diz que um serviço público pode ser fiscalmente sustentável e ensejar eficiência alocativa à economia se a cobrança por elefor precificada corretamente. O presente trabalho estima a elasticidade preço da demanda por ônibus em São Paulo, uma informação importante para responder se sua tarifa ajuda a: gerar eficiência alocativa na economia; atingir sustentabilidade financeira para o sistema de ônibus e fazer com que as pessoas priorizem o ônibus em detrimento do automóvel privado – e, assim, atingir sustentabilidade urbana. Para tal, modelos de Escolha Discreta são estimados para os anos de 1997 e 2007. Utilizando-se a Pesquisa Origem-Destino do Metrô calculam-se as elasticidades de curto prazo para ambos os anos. Posteriormente, a implementação do Bilhete Único (2004) é considerada um choque exógeno no preço das passagens para aqueles que usam mais de um ônibus para seus deslocamentos, sendo assim uma oportunidade para a estimação da elasticidade de longo-prazo na medida em que é virtualmente um choque exógeno de preço. Os resultados sugerem que a demanda por ônibus é inelástica com respeito ao preço tanto no curto quanto no longo-prazo, o que corrobora literatura prévia. Ainda que mais estudos sejam necessários para avaliar se os subsídios devem ser diminuídos, outras políticas além da forma de precificação devem ser consideradas a fim de se tornar o transporte público mais atrativo. / São Paulo expanded rapidly during the 20th Century and became one of the biggest cities in the World, with almost 12 million inhabitants that make around 25 million urban trips per day. Its transit system (bus and subway) accounts for 37% of those trips and is remarkably important, especially for its heavy users – mainly poor people whose commuting might depend on it. Not by chance, subsidies and fare price have been at the heart of an urban policy debate during the last years. Nowadays, São Paulo’s local government spends almost 7% of its budget in bus subsidies - a threefold increase in real terms in ten years - since costs are soaring and fare remains almost constant in real terms since 2005. Despite high subsidies, the city’s bus system seems to be ineffective in taking cars out of the street and ridership is slightly decreasing. São Paulo’s bus system’s fiscal sustainability might be put at risk if things remain unchanged, in that a vicious cycle of ridership decreasing and fare or subsidies increasing might jeopardize transit and harm urban environment. Fare price and its pricing form are central in this question, since literature on public finance says that one public service’s system can be fiscally sustainable and causes allocative efficiency if fare is priced correctly. The present work calculates price elasticity of bus demand in São Paulo, an important piece of information to answer whether fare helps achieving allocative efficiency for the economy, reaching fiscal sustainability on bus system, and making commuters shift from car to transit – and, hence, keeping the city’s urban sustainability. Discrete Choice Models are estimated for the years of 1997 and 2007 using a household survey on commuting. They directly provide short-term elasticities for both years. Then, Bilhete Único implementation (2004) is considered an exogenous shock on trips’ cost for those who use two buses or more on their commuting, therefore being used as an opportunity for estimating long-term elasticity. The results suggest that bus demand is inelastic with respect to price both in short- and long- term, which corroborates previous literature and provides insight for public policies. This indicates that fare is ineffective in taking cars off the streets, but more studies should be conducted to assess whether subsidies should be reduced, especially for reasons of affordability. Policies other than the pricing form should be conducted to achieve transportation sustainability by modal shifting from cars to transit.

Submitted by Andre Maitan (andremaitan@yahoo.com.br) on 2011-07-25T18:57:36Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese MPFE - André Raj Maitan - 93280.pdf: 894819 bytes, checksum: cd191610788a5e242005e02d0e272ee3 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Gisele Isaura Hannickel (gisele.hannickel@fgv.br) on 2011-07-25T19:18:50Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese MPFE - André Raj Maitan - 93280.pdf: 894819 bytes, checksum: cd191610788a5e242005e02d0e272ee3 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Gisele Isaura Hannickel (gisele.hannickel@fgv.br) on 2011-07-25T19:20:01Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese MPFE - André Raj Maitan - 93280.pdf: 894819 bytes, checksum: cd191610788a5e242005e02d0e272ee3 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2011-07-25T19:28:19Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese MPFE - André Raj Maitan - 93280.pdf: 894819 bytes, checksum: cd191610788a5e242005e02d0e272ee3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-06-27 / Our target here is to understand how non observables factors on water heating choice can affect electricity usage by individual consumers. In order to understand this, we will apply a discrete/continuous model in order to understand the impact of household water heating system discrete choice on household electricity consumption, continuous choice. First it was used a LOGIT model as a way to understand which variables influence consumer discrete choice. Hereafter with Discrete model results we verified if consumer choice is relevant on electricity consumption intensity. Hausman method results demonstrated that if we do not specify discrete choice at continuous model, it will bring biased estimators to our model, this occurs due to the fact that discrete choice variable is significant and it helps to explain continuous model. Results show that we have roughly 10% differences on estimators when we ignore discrete choice. It’s important to note that this kind of miscalculation can bring a important difference on government investment decision. This work and the results obtained reinforced Dubbin and McFadden (1984) work that it was used as principal reference to this work. / O objetivo deste trabalho passa por entender o impacto dos fatores não observáveis na escolha do sistema de aquecimento de água na intensidade do consumo de eletricidade domiciliar. Para isto será aplicado um modelo discreto-contínuo para entender o efeito da escolha discreta do tipo de aquecimento de água domiciliar sobre o consumo de energia elétrica do mesmo domicílio, escolha contínua. Primeiramente foi usado um modelo LOGIT e por meio deste foram entendidos os fatores que influenciam a escolha discreta do consumidor. Com os resultados encontrados na escolha discreta, temos em um segundo momento que constatar se esta escolha é significante para a intensidade do consumo de energia elétrica. Os resultados obtidos usando o método de Hausmann demonstraram que ignorar este fator (escolha discreta) pode levar a estimadores viesados para a parte contínua do modelo, ou seja, a escolha discreta é significante e ajuda a explicar o consumo de energia elétrica domiciliar. Os resultados mostraram que temos diferenças de até 10% no estimador obtido quando ignoramos este fator. É importante notar que este tipo de falha no cálculo, pode trazer problemas na decisão e na quantidade de investimento de um país. Além disso, os resultados reforçaram e ratificaram o trabalho desenvolvido por Dubbin e McFadden (1984) que foram usados como base para o estudo.

Este trabalho teve como objetivo analisar a demanda potencial para um sistema de compartilhamento de bicicletas pedelecs no campus da USP de São Carlos, com foco nos deslocamentos de estudantes entre as duas áreas do campus. Para tanto, foi elaborado um conjunto de procedimentos, que constituem duas etapas: caracterização do público-alvo e análise da demanda potencial pelas bicicletas pedelecs compartilhadas. Na primeira etapa foi aplicado um questionário, elaborado com a técnica de preferência declarada, para verificar as preferências dos usuários em relação às pedelecs compartilhadas e ao ônibus operado pela USP. Os resultados desta consulta, que envolveu variáveis de condições meteorológicas, situação de ciclovias/ciclofaixas entre as áreas do campus e lotação do ponto de ônibus USP, foram posteriormente utilizados para calibrar um modelo logit e treinar uma Rede Neural Artificial (RNA). Na segunda etapa foi elaborada uma planilha eletrônica com os dados obtidos na coleta, a fim de analisar as probabilidades de escolha da pedelec (ao invés do ônibus USP). Nesta planilha também foram utilizados dados do histórico meteorológico de São Carlos no período entre 2011 e 2015. Alguns dos resultados obtidos são destacados na sequência. A probabilidade de escolha das pedelecs é, em média, três vezes maior quando existem ciclovias/ciclofaixas (em relação à ausência da referida infraestrutura cicloviária). A ocupação do ponto de ônibus USP também é impactante, pois as probabilidades de uso da bicicleta pedelec praticamente dobram quando o ponto está cheio. No caso da meteorologia, foi constatado que as maiores probabilidades ocorrem no Outono e no Inverno, ou seja, nas épocas em que se concentram os dias mais secos e com menores temperaturas. Para o período letivo de 2011 a 2015, considerando a situação atual (isto é, sem ciclovias/ciclofaixas entre as áreas), os valores de probabilidade de uso da pedelec correspondem a 9% com o ponto vazio e 19% com o ponto cheio. Se houvesse ciclovias/ciclofaixas, a probabilidade seria de até 54%. Desse modo, a estratégia de análise desenvolvida conceitualmente, bem como implantada em planilha eletrônica, se constitui em importante ferramenta de auxílio para a condução da política de transportes que a Prefeitura do campus irá adotar para os anos futuros. Além disso, evidencia uma possível demanda potencial para um sistema com pedelecs compartilhadas. / The objective of this study was to analyze the potential demand for a pedelec sharing system at the São Carlos campus of the University of São Paulo (USP), aiming at the displacements of students between the two campus Areas. The set of procedures developed to reach the objective has involved two steps: characterization of the target audience and analysis of the potential demand for shared pedelecs. The first step was accomplished with a questionnaire designed with a stated preference approach for identifying users\' preferences regarding shared pedelecs and the bus system operated by the university. The survey results, which involved variables of weather conditions, existence of bike paths/bike lanes between the campus Areas, and occupancy rates at the USP bus stop, were subsequently used to calibrate a logit model and to develop an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The survey data were also used in the second step of the process, in which an electronic spreadsheet was created to analyze the probabilities of choosing the pedelec alternative (instead of the bus route operated by university). The spreadsheet was also fed with meteorological data of São Carlos in the period between 2011 and 2015. Some of the obtained outcomes are highlighted in the sequence. The probability of a pedelec being chosen is almost three times higher if bike paths/bike lanes do exist than if they do not exist. The occupancy rates of the bus stop are also particularly relevant. The probability of someone choosing a pedelec nearly doubles when the bus stop is crowded. Regarding the weather conditions, the highest probabilities are observed in the Fall and Winter seasons, i. e. in the driest and coldest days. For the entire academic period comprised between 2011 and 2015, the probabilities range from 9% (empty bus stop) to 19% (full bus stop), considering the current situation (i. e. no cycleways connect the two campus Areas). In the presence of this cycling infrastructure, however, the probability goes up to 54%. Thus, the strategy of analysis conceptually developed, and made available through an electronic spreadsheet, may be an important support tool for the implementation of transport policies by the campus administration. In addition, it highlights a likely potential demand for a system of shared pedelecs.