Les fluctuations macroéconomiques dans les pays émergents sont plus prononcées que celles observées pour les pays développés. On explique cet écart par des imperfections de marché plus importantes dans ce groupe de pays, sous la forme de rigidités nominales comme c’est le cas dans le modèle Néo-Keynésien standard. On y ajoute également des rigidités réelles, ce qui rend les réactions des agents économiques à des chocs exogènes sous-optimales, en comparaison avec le cadre de la théorie des cycles réels. A ces imperfections de marché s’ajoutent des imperfections institutionnelles, où le rôle du secteur public est modélisé suivant une relation d’agence entre ce dernier comme agent fournisseur du bien public, et les ménages qui sont les principaux, demandeurs de ce bien. Les préférences endogènes du planificateur social entraînent également des distorsions entraînant une exacerbation du cycle économique. / Macroeconomic fluctuations in small, open emerging economies 5 have only recently been of interest to the literature. This is due to a host of issues, ranging from data reliability and quality, to the relevance of the business cycle concept when applied to those economies. Nonetheless, this dissertation presents general equilibrium model applications to emerging economies. The central theme of this dissertation is that imperfect market and institutional structures can account for the excess volatility in macroeconomic fluctuations, as compared against developed economies. We extend the New Keynesian Synthesis framework to accommodate the distinctive features and stylised facts compiled for emerging economies.

Cette thèse a pour objectif d’apporter de nouveaux éclairages sur certaines questions liées aux mésalignements de change réels et aux régimes de change dans les pays en développement et les économies émergentes. Dans un premier axe de recherche, nous réexaminons le lien entre les mésalignements de change et la croissance, en intégrant un canal de transmission dit de "la dette en devises". Nous montrons l’existence d’un canal financier de la dette en devises à travers lequel les mésalignements de change exercent un effet opposé, par rapport au canal traditionnel de la compétitivité-prix, sur la croissance. En outre, nous mettons en lumière le rôle joué par le régime de change dans la relation mésalignements de change-croissance et l’importance de la compatibilité du régime monétaire en vigueur avec la structure de la dette extérieure libellée en devises. Dans le second axe de recherche, nous nous intéressons à l’efficacité de la politique de change dans la prévention/correction des mésalignements de change. Nous montrons tout d’abord qu’en l’état actuel des choses, il est difficile d’établir une relation robuste entre les régimes de change et les mésalignements de change en raison notamment des définitions différentes des régimes monétaires adoptées par les classifications de facto des régimes de change. En particulier, seules les classifications permettant de distinguer les régimes monétaires défectueux permettent de discriminer les performances des régimes de change en matière de mésalignements de change. Nous montrons enfin que la transmission des variations du taux de change nominal au taux de change réel n’est pas systématiquement liée à l’ampleur de l’ajustement nominal mais qu’elle dépend fortement de la distorsion initiale du taux de change réel. / The aim of this PhD thesis is to provide new insights on some key issues related to currency misalignments and exchange rate regimes in developing countries and emerging economies. The first focus explores and enlarges the issue of the transmission channels from currency misalignments to economic growth by including the foreign currency-denominated (FCD) debt channel. We first evidence the existence of this FCD debt channel through which currency misalignments affect growth. More specifically, we find that this channel attenuates the traditional impact of price competitiveness on economic growth. Second, we highlight the role played by the exchange rate regime in the currency misalignments-growth nexus as well as the importance of the compatibility between the existing monetary arrangement and the structure of the external debt denominated in foreign currencies. The second research topic focuses on the effectiveness of the exchange rate policy for the prevention/correction of currency misalignments. We first seek to better understand the impact of exchange rate regimes on the levels of currency misalignments, by relying on different de facto classifications of exchange rate regimes. The evidence appears to be mixed. We do not find a clear relationship, but, the classifications that distinguish nonfunctioning monetary regimes seem more willing to discriminate exchange rate regimes on the basis of their performances regarding currency misalignments. Finally, we show that the transmission of nominal exchange rate variations to real exchange rates is not necessarily linked to the magnitude of the nominal adjustment but rather depends on the initial distortion of the real exchange rate.

Por que mesmo entre os países com condições econômicas semelhantes o nível de desenvolvimento financeiro é tão diferente? Diversas variáveis políticas e institucionais já foram ressaltadas pela literatura, no entanto desconectadas uma das outras. Esse artigo visa contribuir para a questão fornecendo um modelo que analise as principais variáveis de forma concomitante, tornando endógena a interação entre elas. Para tanto, selecionamos uma amostra de países de renda média alta que compartilham de outras variáveis econômicas centrais e utilizamos o QCA (Qualitative Comparative Analysis), como método de análise. O estudo conclui que a estabilidade política é a única condição necessária, porém não suficiente. Entre aqueles países estáveis politicamente foi necessário mais um de dois atributos: um alto grau de proteção aos investidores minoritários ou, surpreendentemente, um regime político autocrático. / Why even among countries with similar economic conditions the financial development level is so different? Several political and institutional variables have already been highlighted in the literature, however disconnected from each other. This article aims to contribute to the issue by providing a model to analyze the main variables simultaneously, making endogenous the interaction between them. To achieve this, we selected a sample of middle-income countries who share other core economic variables and use the QCA (Qualitative Comparative Analysis) as the analysis method. The study concludes that political stability is the only necessary condition, but still not sufficient. Those politically stable countries need another one of attributes: a high degree of protection to minority investors or, surprisingly, an autocratic political regime.

Die lateinamerikanischen Währungskrisen lenkten erst kürzlich wieder das Augenmerk auf die Gefahren wechselkursbasierter Stabilisierungen (WKBS). Dies sind Inflationsstabilisierungsprogramme, die den nominalen Wechselkurs als vorrangiges geldpolitisches Instrument einsetzen. Die vorliegende Dissertation dokumentiert die Wirkung der Stabilisierungen und präsentiert Erklärungsmodelle für deren stilisierte Fakten. Das erste Kapitel untersucht in Burns-Mitchell-Diagrammen typische reale und monetäre Effekte von 13 Stabilisierungsepisoden. Der anfängliche Anstieg des Konsums und des BIPs, die reale Aufwertung und die Verschlechterung der Leistungsbilanz sind dabei die auffälligsten stilisierten Fakten. Auf die Expansion folgt eine wirtschaftliche Abschwächung, d. h. niedrigeres oder Nullwachstum, falls die Stabilisierung noch andauert, und negative Wachstumsraten, falls das Programm bereits aufgegeben wurde. Die Kapitalimporte folgen einem ähnlichen Zyklus: Dem Anstieg zu Beginn der Stabilisierung folgt drei bis sechs Jahre später eine drastische Umkehr, die häufig mit dem Zusammenbruch des Programms einhergeht. Die Kurzlebigkeit von WKBS ist ein weiterer stilisierter Fakt: 70 % der betrachteten Stabilisierungen scheiterten innerhalb von 10 Jahren. Die anfängliche reale Aufwertung während WKBS wird meist als Anstieg des relativen Preises nicht-handelbarer Güter modelliert; empirische Ergebnisse hingegen unterstreichen die Bedeutung der internationalen Preisunterschiede handelbarer Güter. Kapitel 2 untersucht diese Ursachen durch die Anwendung von Engels Methode der Varianzzerlegung auf den realen Wechselkurs zwischen Brasilien und den USA. Die Ergebnisse bestätigen dabei sowohl die Modelle als auch den empirischen Befund: Bei Betrachtung der gesamten Stichprobe (von Januar 1981 bis Mai 2001) bestimmen Veränderungen der Preise handelbarer Güter und des nominalen Wechselkurses nahezu die gesamten Bewegungen des realen Wechselkurses. Während Perioden fester Wechselkurse hingegen sind die Preise nicht-handelbarer Güter von ähnlicher Bedeutung. Aufgrund dieses Ergebnisses wird in den in Kapitel 3 und 4 präsentierten Modellen der reale Wechselkurs in Abhängigkeit des relativen Preises nicht-handelbarer Güter dargestellt. Diese Modelle bilden kleine, offene Volkswirtschaften ab, die von nutzenmaximierenden repräsentativen Agenten mit perfekter Voraussicht bevölkert sind. Monetäre Größen sind aufgrund von cash-in-advance- Beschränkungen von Bedeutung. Weitere wichtige Modellelemente sind die Existenz von Marktimperfektionen (Preisstarrheiten und unvollständige Kapitalmobilität) sowie die mangelnde Glaubwürdigkeit der Stabilisierung. In Kapitel 3 ist diese durch die Antizipation einer Währungskrise à la Krugman (1979) begründet. Die reale Aufwertung kann dann mit vorausblickender Preissetzung der monopolistischen Produzenten nicht-handelbarer Güter erklärt werden: Aufgrund von Preisstarrheiten erhöhen diese ihre Preise in Erwartung der Währungsabwertung. Da die Preise handelbarer Güter durch das Gesetz des einheitlichen Preises bestimmt werden, folgt daraus ein Anstieg des relativen Preises nicht-handelbarer Güter und eine reale Aufwertung. Zudem wird aufgrund intertemporaler Konsumsubstitution der anfängliche Konsumboom reproduziert. Ökonometrische Evidenz bestätigt den Preissetzungsmechanismus: KQ-Schätzungen mit monatlichen mexikanischen Daten zeigen für Perioden fester Wechselkurse einen signifikanten positiven Zusammenhang zwischen dem relativen Preis nicht-handelbarer Güter und dem mexikanisch-US-amerikanischen Zinsdifferential als Approximation der Abwertungserwartung. Während das Ende der Stabilisierung in obigen Modell durch eine fundamentale Inkonsistenz von Wechselkursziel und Staatsausgaben bedingt ist, zeigt Kapitel 4, daß der Zusammenbruch auch aus sich-selbst-erfüllenden Erwartungen resultieren kann. Ein wesentliches Element ist dabei die Begrenzung der internationalen Kapitalmobilität. Diese erlaubt es, sowohl den anfänglichen Konsumboom als auch das Ende der Stabilisierung mit Erwartungen bezüglich der Dauer des Pegs und der nachfolgenden Geldpolitik zu erklären. Zusammenfassend zeigt die Dissertation die Gefahren wechselkursbasierter Stabilisierungen auf: Im Gegensatz zur herkömmlichen Meinung sind sogar relativ erfolgreiche und langlebige WKBS mittelfristig mit einer Kontraktion verbunden; nur wenige Programme erzielen eine nachhaltige Reduktion der Inflation. Die hier präsentierten Modelle zeigen, daß die mangelnde Glaubwürdigkeit der Programme - selbst wenn diese nicht durch Fundamentaldaten gerechtfertigt ist - zu Allokationsverzerrungen führt und den Erfolg der Stabilisierungsmaßnahmen gefährdet. / Exchange rate crises in Latin America recently put a spotlight on the perils of Exchange Rate-Based Stabilizations (ERBS), which use the nominal exchange rate as the main policy target for stabilizing inflation. This dissertation documents the effects of ERBS in high inflation economies and develops models to explain these stylized facts. The first chapter assesses the empirical regularities associated with ERBS. Based on a sample of 13 stabilization episodes, typical real and monetary dynamics are investigated in Burns-Mitchell diagrams. Stylized facts of ERBS are the initial increases in consumption and GDP, the real appreciation and the current account deterioration. Moreover, consumption and output are found to follow a boom-slowdown cycle, where slowdown means reduced or zero growth if the ERBS is still in effect, and negative growth rates for failed ERBS. Capital inflows follow a similar boom-bust cycle: Their increase at the stabilization''s inception is followed by a sharp reversal three to six years later, very often coinciding with the program''s collapse. This transitoriness of ERBS constitutes an additional stylized fact: 70 % of the programs under consideration failed within 10 years after their implementation. The origin of the initial real exchange rate appreciation during ERBS has been subject to controversy: Most models assume an increase in the relative price of non-traded goods. Empirical findings, in contrast, emphasize the contribution of traded goods'' cross-country prices. Chapter 2 sheds light on this issue by applying Engel''s (1995) method of variance decomposition on Brazilian-US real exchange rate fluctuations. The results confirm both the models and the empirical findings: When considering the full sample (from January 1981 to May 2001), changes in traded goods'' prices and the nominal exchange rate account for almost all of the observed real exchange rate movements. During periods of pegged exchange rates, however, non-traded goods'' prices are equally important for real exchange rate fluctuations. Thus, changes in relative non-tradables'' prices are incorporated as a determinant of real exchange rate fluctuations during ERBS in the theoretical frameworks presented in chapters 3 and 4. These explain the stylized facts in models of small, open economies populated by a utility-maximizing representative agent endowed with perfect foresight. Money matters due to cash-in-advance constraints. Further important features are the existence of market imperfections - price stickiness or imperfect capital mobility - and the stabilization''s deficient credibility. In chapter 3, the latter is due to the anticipation of a Krugman (1979)-style currency crisis. The initial real appreciation during ERBS can then be explained with forward-looking price setting by monopolistic non-tradable goods'' producers: These are subject to staggered price setting and incorporate the peg''s anticipated termination - i.e. higher future devaluation rates - by increasing their current prices. As tradables'' prices are determined by the law of one price, this implies higher relative non-tradables'' prices and thus a real exchange rate appreciation. Furthermore, due to intertemporal consumption substitution, the observed initial consumption boom is reproduced. Econometric evidence confirms the proposed price setting mechanism: Using the Mexican-US interest rate differential as an indicator for devaluation rate expectations, OLS regressions with monthly Mexican data find a significant positive relation between relative non-tradables'' prices and the interest rate spread during periods of pegged exchange rates. In the previous model, the stabilization effort collapses due to a fundamental inconsistency between the exchange rate target and government finance. Chapter 4 shows that the collapse can also result from self-fulfilling expectations. This is achieved by introducing partial international capital mobility. Given this constraint, both the initial consumption boom and the stabilization''s collapse can be shown to result from expectations about the duration of the peg and post-stabilization monetary policy. In conclusion, the dissertation points to the perils of ERBS in high inflation countries: Contrary to what is commonly believed, even relatively successful and long-lived exchange rate pegs are associated with a late slowdown; only very few ERBS are successful at stabilizing inflation rates in the medium and long run. The models show that stabilizations'' deficient credibility - regardless if justified by fundamentals or not - engenders real dynamics which distort economic activity and jeopardize the stabilization effort: The miracle of ERBS turns into a mirage.

Submitted by JOSIANE SANTOS DE OLIVEIRA (josianeso) on 2018-02-09T13:55:59Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Jefferson Marlon Monticelli_.pdf: 2132135 bytes, checksum: 7734ff90d7d8d8c8f8541fd6fea4da57 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-02-09T13:55:59Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Jefferson Marlon Monticelli_.pdf: 2132135 bytes, checksum: 7734ff90d7d8d8c8f8541fd6fea4da57 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-12-11 / Nenhuma / A coopetição é uma estratégia de relacionamento multifacetada, multinível e paradoxal entre firmas (LUO, 2004; CHEN, 2008; GNYAWALI; PARK, 2009). Apesar do número significativo de estudos relacionados com o conceito, a coopetição é ainda considerada como um conceito em andamento. Os estudos se limitaram em explorar uma série de firmas, principalmente pequenas e médias empresas (PMEs), embora a coopetição possa criar benefícios relevantes para essas firmas (BOUNCKEN et al., 2015). A coopetição deve ser analisar a partir de uma perspectiva multidimensional, considerando a influência de arranjos institucionais em estratégias de competição, cooperação e coopetição entre firmas. Além disso, há um aumento da pressão competitiva. As empresas buscam a coopetição para alcançar um posicionamento no mercado internacional (FESTA et al., 2017). Minha tese foca-se na lacuna que associa coopetição, instituições formais e desempenho internacional, uma vez que os estudos sobre esses construtos são raros e inconclusivos. Desse modo, minha tese objetiva enfatizar como a coopetição influencia a performance na internacionalização de firmas de mercados emergentes considerando o papel da coopetição. Apesar de essa pesquisa focar em diferentes indústrias, as firmas competem e cooperam em uma mesma indústria, caracterizando a coopetição. Conectando os campos teóricos e empíricos, a questão de pesquisa é: “Qual é a relação entre instituições formais e desempenho internacional das firmas de uma economia emergente considerando o papel da coopetição?”. Esta pesquisa está dividida em duas fases: uma etapa qualitativa e uma quantitativa. A etapa qualitativa é exploratório-descritiva. Foi baseada em 21 entrevistas realizadas com representantes de firmas e instituições formais e com pesquisadores acadêmicos para estabelecer um estudo de caso sobre o contexto. A etapa quantitativa foi realizada com a pesquisa com firmas das indústrias de calçado, vinho e tecnologia da informação, resultando em 166 respostas válidas. A técnica de análise aplicada foi a análise de regressão. As principais contribuições deste estudo são duplas. A primeira contribuição é enfatizar o papel das instituições formais na discussão sobre coopetição. A segunda está relacionada com a pesquisa sobre coopetição associada com a performance na internacionalização de firmas. Poucos estudos lidam com a performance das firmas e geralmente focam-se no desempenho de inovação (GNYAWALI; PARK, 2009; GNYAWALI et al., 2008). Como resultado, é apresentado um quadro que sustenta o conceito de abordagem institucional. Além disso, os resultados mostraram uma relação direta ente instituições formais e desempenho internacional mediada pela coopetição. As limitações deste estudo baseiam-se no fato de a investigação ter ocorrido em um único país. Ao final deste estudo, outros caminhos de investigação surgiram. Em primeiro lugar, esta pesquisa focou-se no nível entre firmas, desconsiderando os níveis individuais, intrafirmas e de rede. Segundo, a coopetição como contexto poderia analisar cadeias de agentes que adicionam valor às firmas (BRANDENBURGER; NALEBUFF, 1995). / Coopetition is a multifaceted, multilevel, and paradoxical strategy of relationship between firms (LUO, 2004; CHEN, 2008; GNYAWALI; PARK, 2009). Despite the significant number of studies related to the concept, coopetition is still considered as a concept in progress. Studies have been limited in exploring a variety of firms, mainly small and medium enterprises (SMEs), although coopetition can generate relevant benefits for these firms (BOUNCKEN et al., 2015). Coopetition must be analyzed from a multi-dimensional view, considering the influence of institutional arrangements on competition, cooperation, and coopetition strategies between firms. Moreover, there is an increased competitive pressure. Firms search for coopetition to gain positioning in international markets (FESTA et al., 2017). My thesis focus on the gap that associates coopetition, formal institutions, and international performance because there are rare and inconclusive studies about these constructs. Thus, this thesis aims to highlight the relationship between formal institutions and international performance of firms from an emerging economy taking into account the role of the coopetition. Although this research focuses on different industries, they compete and cooperate in the same industry, characterizing coopetition. While connecting theoretical and empirical topics, the research question is the following: what is the relationship between formal institutions and international performance of firms from an emerging economy taking into account the role of the coopetition? This research is divided into two stages: a qualitative and a quantitative step. The qualitative stage is exploratory-descriptive. It was based on 21 interviews realized with representatives from firms and formal institutions and academic researchers to establish a case study about the context. The quantitative stage was carried out with the survey with firms from footwear, winery, and information technology industries, resulting in 166 valid responses. The analysis technique applied was regression analysis. The main contributions of this study are twofold. The first contribution is to stress the role of formal institutions in the discussion about coopetition. The second contribution is related to the research about coopetition associated with the performance in the internationalization of firms. Few studies deal with firm performance and usually focus on the innovation performance (GNYAWALI; PARK, 2009; GNYAWALI et al., 2008). As a result, a framework supporting the concept of Institutional Approach is presented. Also, results showed a direct relationship between formal institutions and international performance mediated by coopetition. Limitations of this study are based on the investigation to have occurred in a single country. At the end of this study, other avenues of the investigation appeared. First, this research focused on the inter-firm level, disregarding individual, intrafirm and network levels. Second, coopetition as context could analyze chains of agents that add value to the firms (BRANDENBURGER; NALEBUFF, 1995).

Dans cette thèse nous examinons différents aspects des fluctuations dans les économies émergentes. Premièrement, afin d’établir les régularités empiriques de ces pays nous examinons le contexte économique des pays du Moyen Orient et d’Afrique du Nord. Ensuite, nous estimons un modèle des cycles réels pour essayer de reproduire les faits stylisés de ces pays, mais aussi pour évaluer la performance de ces modèles néoclassiques augmentés de deux types de chocs de productivité transitoire et permanent. Ceci fait l’objet du chapitre 2 dont le résultat est en faveur de l'hypothèse "Le cycle c'est la tendance" . Le deuxième aspect porte sur l’importance des frictions financières, il est traité dans le troisième chapitre qui introduit des chocs financiers au modèle de croissance stochastique. Nous identifions le rôle des frictions financières dans l’économie tunisienne comme étant un amplificateur de l’effet des chocs de productivité. Le quatrième chapitre porte sur l'analyse de la politique monétaire. Premièrement, nous examinons le régime de ciblage d’inflation où nos résultats empiriques supportent une implémentation de la stricte version du ciblage d’inflation avec une fonction de réaction basée sur des prévisions de l'inflation. Deuxièmement, nous exploitant les règles monétaires optimales en présence de la rigidité d l'information dans le cadre d’un modèle stochastique d’équilibre général (DSGE). Nos résultats, révèlent que les chocs du taux de marge de la force de travail jouent un rôle important dans les fluctuations de l’économie tunisienne, la règle de Taylor produit un taux satisfaisant de bien être, alors que les règles qui ciblent le niveau de prix ne sont pas efficaces. / This thesis investigates different aspects of the fluctuations in emerging economies. First, it examines the MENA countries’ context to establish the empirical regularities. Then, to replicate the MENA countries’ business cycle patterns observed in the annual data, we estimate a standard real business cycle (RBC) model to assess the performance of the neoclassical model with transitory and permanent shocks. This is the purpose of chapter 2 which results support the assumption "The cycle is the trend". The second aspect refers to the importance of financial frictions and is addressed in the third chapter which adds new financial shocks to the stochastic growth model. We determine the role of financial frictions in the Tunisian economy not as the source of business cycle fluctuations but as an amplifier of the effects of total factor of productivity shocks.The fourth chapter analyzes monetary policy in emerging economies. Firstly, we examine the inflation targeting regime under the lens of a New Keynesian forward-looking model. We also, estimate a Taylor rule and some other alternatives in order to determine which rule to adopt within this framework. Empirical results support the implementation of a strict inflation targeting regime, with an inflation forecast based rule as a reaction function. Secondly, we explore the optimal monetary policy rules using a New Keynesian DSGE model. In particular we assume that information stickiness as the only type of rigidity in the model. We find that Whereas, Taylor rule in its original version provides substantial welfare gains, price-level targeting regime was suboptimal.

Esta pesquisa inova ao investigar a associação de práticas de governança e de características específicas de fundos de pensão brasileiros com o desempenho dos investimentos. Déficits crescentes observados desde 2011, combinados com casos de corrupção e gestão temerária, são fatores que podem contestar a efetividade de fundos de pensão e lançar questionamentos sobre a previdência complementar fechada. O estudo utiliza dados coletados de demonstrações contábeis anuais auditadas de 2011 a 2015 de 41 fundos de pensão do país e que possuem sob a gestão 72% dos investimentos do total das entidades do Brasil. As informações sobre práticas de governança foram obtidas de relatórios internos dos fundos de pensão disponíveis em seus sítios eletrônicos e, também de plataformas eletrônicas como Bloomberg, LinkedIn e Google. Foi desenvolvido estudo quantitativo para investigar o problema de aspectos de governança e de características específicas em fundos de pensão brasileiros e que podem impactar de forma diferenciada o retorno dos ativos sob a gestão. O experimento do trabalho testou dados em painel através do método dos momentos generalizados em dois estágios com uso de variáveis instrumentais. Os resultados indicam evidências de impacto positivo no desempenho dos investimentos quando há uso de melhores práticas de governança como o comitê de investimentos. Sugere-se que estão sendo efetivos a avaliação e o controle de riscos sob esta prática e em benefício dos planos sob a gestão. Porém, há evidências de associação negativa de características no nível destas organizações sobre o retorno dos investimentos. Dentre as características que puderam ser observadas, os resultados sugerem que conexões com governo pelo tipo de patrocínio e existência de contratos de gestão externa dos investimentos por fundo de pensão com patrocinador do setor financeiro, podem influenciar a busca de outros interesses que não o melhor retorno aos planos de benefícios. Entretanto, a partir das mesmas características apresentam-se evidências de associação positiva com uso de melhores práticas de governança. Entende-se que pode haver o incentivo de se manter as condições para atendimento dos interesses políticos de suas relações. Os resultados desta pesquisa trazem contribuições para a discussão de características no nível dos fundos de pensão que podem influenciar o comportamento de seus executivos e para o debate da governança dessas organizações no país. Entende-se que estas contribuições podem ser aplicadas no contexto de demais economias emergentes. Por fim, a pesquisa sugere não ser óbvio que o monitoramento e controle pelos órgãos de supervisão e regulação atual sejam suficientes para evitar a evolução de déficits nos fundos de pensão e de impacto social no longo prazo. O argumento é que sem mecanismos de governança adequados às características no nível das entidades, os executivos em fundos de pensão podem não atuar no interesse único dos participantes dos planos de benefícios. / This research innovates by investigating the association of governance practices and specific characteristics of Brazilian pension funds with the performance of investments. Increasing deficits observed since 2011, combined with cases of corruption and reckless management, are factors that can challenge the effectiveness of pension funds and raise questions about closed private pension plans. The study uses data collected from audited annual financial statements between 2011 and 2015 from 41 pension funds that accounting for 72% of investments in this system. Information on pension fund governance practices was obtained from internal reports available on its websites and also from electronic platforms such as Bloomberg, LinkedIn, and Google. A quantitative study was developed to investigate the problem of governance aspects, and specific characteristics of them that may have a different impact on the return of assets under management. The work experiment tested panel data through the generalized method of moments (GMM) in two stages and use of instrumental variables. The results indicate evidence of a positive impact on the performance of asset under management in the use of governance best-practices such as investment committee. It is suggested that under this practice, risk assessment and control are being effective for the benefit of plans under the management of pension funds. However, there is evidence of a negative association at the organization-level on the return of investments. The results demonstrate that characteristics such as the government connections by the type of sponsorship and the outsourcing of the investment management by pension funds with sponsor from the financial sector can influence the pursuit of interests other than the best return of investments for the benefit plans. However, these same characteristics present evidence of a positive association with the use of governance best-practices. It is understood that the incentive would be to maintain the conditions to attend the political interests of their relations. The results of this research bring contributions to the discussion of characteristics at the level of pension funds that can influence the behavior of its executives and to the debate of their corporate governance in the country. It is understood that these contributions can be applied in the context of other emerging economies. Finally, this paper suggests that it isn´t obvious that monitoring and controlling by current supervisory and regulatory bodies are sufficient to avoid the evolution of deficits in pension funds and greater social impact in the long term. The argument is that without appropriated governance mechanisms to entity-level characteristics, pension fund executives may not act in the sole interest of participants.

Cette thèse met en lumière la confiance dans les nouvelles relations entre un subordonné et sa hiérarchie qui s’établissent après une fusion-acquisition (fusac) dans un pays émergent multiculturel. Un grand nombre de chercheurs s’est intéressé à la question du taux d’échec de plus de 50% des fusac. De nombreuses difficultés caractérisent le processus d’intégration d’une entreprise après son acquisition, y compris pour les employés. L’établissement de la confiance est un facteur clé du succès. S’appuyant sur des travaux effectués sous l’angle culturel des fusacs, ces trois essais traitent d’une lacune dans la connaissance de la dynamique de confiance et de la dynamique culturelle lors de l’intégration d’entreprises dont le personnel est multiculturel. L'essai 1 développe un cadre théorique pour l’étude de la confiance d’un subordonné issu d’une entreprise multiculturelle acquise envers la direction des acquéreurs étrangers, sur la base de la similitude ethnique ou religieuse. L’essai 2 teste plusieurs hypothèses sur la (dis)similitude religieuse et la confiance à partir du cadre théorique élaboré, modérées par trois facteurs spécifiques à l’acquisition. L’essai 3 examine la dynamique culturelle et la dynamique de confiance au travers de deux études de cas : une acquisition malaisienne locale comparée à l’acquisition d’une entreprise malaisienne par une entreprise sud-africaine. L’analyse par abduction de 35 interviews d’employés des entreprises acquéreuses et acquises met en évidence que la perméabilisation des frontières managériales a facilité le développement de la confiance entre les subordonnés et leur direction. / This dissertation illuminates trust in new subordinate—leader relationships arising from mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in multicultural emerging economies. A large body of researchers has probed the notorious M&A failure rate of over 50%. Complexity and uncertainty characterize post-acquisition integration including for the personnel. Trust is a key success factor. Building on research into the cultural perspective of M&As, three related essays address a knowledge gap in trust and cultural dynamics when integrating firms with multicultural personnel. Essay 1 develops a theoretical framework of multicultural acquired-firm subordinate trust in foreign acquirer leaders, based on ethnic or religious similarity. The M&A concept of multiculturalism is combined with self-categorization and similarity-attraction theories to explicate how subordinates alleviate integration uncertainty to develop trust. Essay 2 tests religious (dis)similarity—trust hypotheses from this framework, moderated by three acquisition-specific factors. Policy-capturing data from 411 multifaith Malaysian personnel demonstrates the nuanced role of religion as a catalyst (constraint) of trust in cross-border M&As. Essay 3 examines the cultural and trust dynamics in two case studies, comparing a domestic Malaysian acquisition and a South African—Malaysian acquisition. Abductive analysis of 35 interviews of acquirer and acquired-firm personnel reveals that managerial boundary spanning facilitated subordinate—leader trust development. Paradoxically, integrating the domestic rather than cross-border acquisition was more complex when within-country religious diversity and linguistic diversity are considered.

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We employ income projection models based on human capital dynamics in order to assess quantitatively the role that educational improvements are expected to play as a driver of future income convergence in Europe. We concentrate on income convergence dynamics between emerging economies in Central and Eastern Europe and Western European countries during the next 50 years. Our results indicate that improvements in human capital contribute significantly to the income convergence potential of European emerging economies. Using realistic scenarios, we quantify the effect that future human capital investments paths are expected to have in terms of speeding up the income convergence process in the region. The income projection exercise shows that the returns to investing in education in terms of income convergence in Europe could be sizeable, although it may take relatively long for the poorer economies of the region to rip the growth benefits. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series