[pt] O objetivo desta dissertação é investigar a existência de retornos anormais no contrato de dólar futuro de primeiro vencimento nos momentos próximos à realização dos leilões de câmbio pelo Banco Central do Brasil. Em respondendo positivamente à primeira indagação, avaliamos a persistência de tais retornos que, em última instância, descreverá o quão rápido novas informações são difundidas e incorporadas aos preços. Para isso, aplicamos os arcabouços de estudos de eventos e microestrutura do mercado de câmbio aos dados de alta frequência obtidos junto à BMEFBovespa e ao BC. A disponibilidade dos dados dos negócios permite que se utilize da variável de fluxo de ordem e, assim, se corrijam potenciais problemas relacionados a viés de variável omitida, não considerados na literatura sobre intervenções dos bancos centrais. Encontram-se retornos anormais estatisticamente positivos nos minutos que seguem à abertura de um leilão e negativos nos minutos seguintes ao fechamento do mesmo. Adicionalmente, as evidências mostram que o horário do leilão pouco afeta os resultados. / [en] The goal of this dissertation is to investigate the existence of abnormal returns in U.S. dollar futures contract maturing in the first moments near to the realization of exchange auctions by the Central Bank of Brazil. On the occasion of a positive response to the first question, we evaluated the persistence of these returns that ultimately describe how fast new information is disseminated and incorporated into prices. For this, we apply the frameworks of Event Studies and Microstructure of the exchange market to high-frequency data obtained from the BMANDFBovespa and the CB. The availability of transactions data allows the use of variable order flow and thus to correct potential problems related to omitted variable bias, not considered in the literature on Central Bank intervention. We found statistically positive abnormal returns in the minutes following the opening of an auction and negative in the minutes following the closure of the same event. Additionally, the evidence points to the direction that, among the times chosen by the monetary authority in the database, there is no statistically significant difference with respect to the effects of such events on the movements in the exchange rate on intraday basis.

Etableringen av sociala medier har skapat ett nytt medielandskap där beslutsfattare och politiker kan kommunicera direkt med allmänheten. Donald J. Trump är en politiker som valt att kom- municera med sin publik via twitter. Han misstror traditionell medias förmåga att objektivt återge hans utsagor och underminerar journalistiken genom att använda begrepp som ’fake news’. Att en amerikansk presidenten twittrar är inget nytt fenomen men frekvensen och reto- riken i Donald J. Trumps tweets är något nytt. Dessa nya medievanor kan få konsekvenser inom flera sektorer inte minst på finansmarknaden. Vilken påverkan hans twittrande har på aktiemarknaden är frågan som behandlas i denna uppsats. Uppsatsens syfte är således att studera om Donald J. Trumps tweets påverkar Dow Jones In- dustrial Average (DJIA). Studien avgränsas till handelskriget mellan USA och Kina. Vidare avgränsas studien till en tidsperiod om ett år, från februari 2018 till februari 2019. Uppsatsen studerar enbart USA:s president Donald J. Trumps tweets. Studien genomförs genom event study som jämför normal returns innan händelsen (tweet) med den abnormal returns efter. Tweetsen är utvalda baserat på ett antal nyckelord som testas inom varaktighetsfönster på 5, 10, 15 och 20 minuter, vilket ger uttryck för hur länge effekten varar. Resultatet visar att 8 av 12 tweets har en statistisk signifikant påverkan på DJIA på antingen 1%, 5% eller 10% signifikansnivå. Studien tyder således att presidentens twittrande påverkar DJIA. Slutsatsen av studien är att Donald J. Trumps tweets utgör information som påverkar värde- ringen på aktiemarknaden (DJIA) och dess avkastning. Därför kan konstateras att sociala me- dier, såsom Twitter, är informationskällor som är högst väsentliga att följa för aktörer på finansmarknaden. Vidare får resultatet implikationer för rådande lagstiftning och regleringar, något som redan diskuteras i USA. Studier på området har varit svåra att finna varför vidare forsk- ning på området vore önskvärt.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of a stock recommendation from the leading financial magazines in Sweden. The study aims to measure the impact a recommendation illustrates in true value. The measurements are mean abnormal returns (AR), mean cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) and mean abnormal volume (AV). Conducting an event study to monitor, not only the date of announcement, but to also validate or invalidate the recommendation as a fundamental changer in the stock case. Where the calculations are made before, on and after the event occurs. With the aim to test if the market is efficient and in line with the rational theories, or if there are other explanatory theories, like the behavioral financial approach, that can explain the results. The sample consists of 571 recommendations that have been announced 2017 and 2018, divided into categories of buy and sell. The sample of buy and sell are also tested in subcategories of small and large companies, to measure the impact due to size of the firm, as a dependent variable. The empirical results shows that there are AR and AV existing due to recommendations. Small companies have the highest measured AR, with sell recommendations having the largest effects. The sell recommendations changes the value and the fundamentals of the stocks, while buy recommendations react positive to the recommendations on the day of announcement, then reverses back to the same price in the end of the event window. Suggesting that the market act both efficient and rational, but also irrational and ineffective, depending on what type of recommendation that is being released and how large and well monitored the company, that gets the recommendation is.

Desde 2010, os bancos brasileiros são obrigados a publicar suas demonstrações financeiras anuais consolidadas em dois padrões contábeis diferentes, COSIF e IFRS. Este estudo buscou conhecer e apontar impactos do peculiar processo de adoção dos bancos brasileiros ao IFRS, tanto sob o ponto de vista de quem fornece as informações, quanto dos investidores. Para tanto, buscou-se inicialmente conhecer a população brasileira de bancos e quais as mudanças divulgadas em suas demonstrações financeiras. Por meio de uma análise comparativa das demonstrações financeiras, foram encontradas diferenças entre os valores publicados em praticamente todas as contas das DREs das instituições e com uma aparente independência entre as decisões de reclassificação uma vez que ocorreram em amplitudes e sentidos diferentes. Por meio de uma amostra de 16 bancos, observou-se que o Lucro Líquido apresentado em IFRS foi menor em nove e o Patrimônio Líquido aumentou em 14 bancos. Pela ótica dosinvestidores (usuários externos da informação) o impacto foi mensurado por meio de variações de valor de mercado e de um estudo de evento. Os resultados do estudo de evento evidenciaram a existência de retornos anormais acumulados (CAR) entre -16,9% e +12,5%, sugerindo que a adoção de IFRS foi Value Relevant. O relacionamento entre as variáveis foi obtido por meio de uma matriz de correlações de Spearman e indica que o mercado reagiu em sentido inverso ao risco, com correlação de -0,89. A reação do mercado foi mensurada pelo CAR e o risco pelos betas. Esta correlação fornece indícios de que o mercado reagiu mais negativamente a instituições de maior risco. Logo, pode-se supor que o novo padrão contábil apresentou informações que podem ter aumentado a percepção dos investidores ao risco. / Since 2010, Brazilian banks are required to publish their consolidated financial statements in accounting standards: IFRS and COSIF. This study aims to know and point impacts of particular adoption process of Brazilian banks to IFRS, both from the point of view of who provides the information and investors. It sought to know the population of Brazilian banks and the changes disclosed in its financial statements. The results showed differences between the values published in all accounts of Income Statement, in all institutions, with rare exceptions, and an apparent independence of the reclassification decisions as they occurred in different directions and amplitudes. Given a sample of 16 banks, net income presented in accordance with IFRS was lower in nine and equity increased by 14. From the standpoint of investors (external users of information) impact was measured through changes in market value and an event study. The results of the event study indicated the existence of cumulative abnormal returns between -16.9% and +12.5%, suggesting evidence that the adoption of IFRS was Value Relevant. The relationship between variables was obtained from a matrix of Spearman and showed evidence that the market reacted to the risk in reverse, with a correlation of -0.89. Market reaction was measured by the CAR and risk betas. This correlation points to evidence that the market reacted more negatively the greater the risk, where one can assume that the new accounting standard may have increased investors\' perception of risk.

Ce travail de recherche s’évertue à mieux comprendre les effets d’un ou plusieurs chocs exogènes dans un marché financier. Plus précisément, nous tentons d’étudier l’impact d’un choc informationnel sur les comportements des prix des actifs, les bulles spéculatives, la volatilité des prix, le volume de transactions et les prévisions des analystes. Ainsi, pour ce faire,nous décomposons la problématique en trois articles. Le premier article présente une analyse empirique qui teste les effets d’un choc exogène attendu - l’annonce du Brexit - sur la performance à court terme et à long terme des entreprises britanniques et européennes cotées en bourse. Nos résultats montrent que l’annonce du Brexit impacte négativement la performance à long terme des firmes britanniques et des firmes européennes puisque celles-ci font la plupart de leurs activités commerciales avec la zone britannique. Dans le deuxième essai,nous testons les effets d’un choc exogène attendu et inattendu de la valeur fondamentale dans un marché expérimental. Nos résultats montrent que les chocs ont un effet négatif sur la déviation des prix par rapport à la valeur fondamentale et un effet positif sur l’hétérogénéité des croyances quel que soit le type de choc, attendu ou inattendu, et quelle que soit sa direction,à la hausse ou à la baisse. Le troisième article se concentre sur les effets de multiples chocs inattendus dans un marché expérimental. Nos principaux résultats sont les suivants : les multiples chocs à la baisse réduisent le volume de transactions et la volatilité des prix tandis que les multiples chocs à la hausse n’ont pas d’effet sur le volume de transactions et augmentent la volatilité des prix. Enfin, nous observons, seulement dans les marchés sans chocs, un lien positif entre le volume de transactions et l’hétérogénéité des croyances. / This thesis investigates the effects of one or multiples exogeneous shocks in stock market. More precisely, we are interested in the impact of a news shock on the behaviour of stock prices,bubbles, price volatility, transactions volume and analyst’s forecasts. To tackle this question,we depicted the subject in three axes. The first essay presents an empirical analysis that tests the effects of an expected shock - the Brexit vote announcement - on the long-run market performance of British listed firms and European listed firms. Our results show that the Brexit announcement affected negatively the long-run market performance over a 12 months’ horizon of UK firms in any of their business activities and European non-British firms having most oftheir business activities within the British area. In the second paper, we investigate experimentally the effects of expected and unexpected shock on an asset’s fundamental value.Our findings show that shocks have a negative effect on the price deviation from the fundamental value and a positive effect on the differences of opinion regardless of the type ofshocks - expected or unexpected - and regardless of the direction - upward or downward. The third paper focuses on the effects of unexpected multiple shocks in an experimental market.Our main findings are as follows: Multiple downward shocks reduce transactions volume andprice volatility, while multiple upward shocks have no effect on trading volume and increase price volatility. Finally, we observe, only in markets without shocks, a positive link between the volume of transactions and the differences of opinion.

This paper investigates the reliability of the stock market’s initial reaction to M&A announcements as a predictor of actual post-acquisition performance. The two prevailing methods for evaluating M&A performance are event studies (stock market-based measures) and accounting-based measures. The present study combines these two performance evaluation approaches in a single empirical examination. Both the post-merger buy-and-hold abnormal returns and changes in ROA are used as actual post-acquisition performance variables. The acquirer’s cumulative abnormal return (CAR) around the announcement is used as the market predictor variable. An econometric model is employed to test the predictive power of the announcement-period CAR on the actual performance variables using a sample of 3,208 acquisitions by U.S. public companies from 2010 to 2014. This paper’s main contribution lies both in its methodology and its findings: on the one hand, long-term market and accounting variables are used as dependent variables measuring post-acquisition performance. On the other hand, this paper finds that short-term CAR is not a good predictor of subsequent M&A performance. The results suggest that the acquirer’s prior M&A experience is a positive predictor of post-acquisition performance.

This research attempts to provide an explanation for the firm's choice of using either a dividend or a stock repurchase for distributing cash to its stockholders. It also provides an examination of the impact of the firm's disbursement decision on the stock market's resulting reassessment of the value of the firm. Before analyzing the disbursement decision, I examine the stock market effects of dividends and stock repurchases using an event study methodology that corrects for the possible variance change effects of cash distribution announcements. I find that the measured wealth effects are statistically significant and similar, for the most part, to that reported in earlier studies, notwithstanding increases in the variance of the abnormal returns distribution. I apply LIMDEP's full information maximum likelihood estimator (FIML) to investigate the factors influencing a firm's disbursement decision. I use proxies to represent the major theories put forward in the literature to explain firms' rationales for making cash disbursements, namely, signaling / asymmetric information, undervaluation hypothesis, agency theory, dividend clientele, corporate control, optimal capital structure theory, managerial incentives hypothesis, financial flexibility and cash flow permanence. I find that the firm's payout choice is related to the change in annual earnings per share, the residual volatility in daily stock returns prior to the distribution, the level of undervaluation, the free cash flows of the firm, the size of the firm, the extent of available managerial stock options, the average dividend yield, the volatility of operating earnings, the average daily stock return prior to announcement, the relative proportion of permanent cash flows, and the difference in the levels of permanent cash flows pre and post announcement. I evaluate the stock market impact of the disbursement choice by using a self-selectivity limited-dependent variables model. The findings indicate that while open market repurchasing firms make optimal disbursement choices, that is reflected in the reaction of the stock market to the disbursement announcement, firms using repurchase tender offers make disbursement decisions detrimental to the welfare of their stockholders. However, similar results were inconclusive with regard to firms choosing to utilize dividends as their cash payout mechanism.

<p>En av de största och viktigaste marknaderna i dagens samhälle är den finansiella marknaden.Denna marknad består dels av valutamarknaden, där det handlas med olika konvertibla valutor, dels av kapital-marknaden som består av penningmarknaden och aktiemarknaden. Aktie- marknaden har en oerhört viktig roll när det gäller marknadsekonomin bland annat på grund av att den tillhandahåller riskvilligt kapital till företag samt ger möjlighet till spridning och omfördelning av risk. Aktörerna på aktiemarknaden strävar ständigt efter att öka värdet på sina placeringar. Värdet på dessa beror på hur företagets ekonomiska ställning ser ut. Aktörernas ambition att försöka öka värdet på sina placeringar förekommer främst på marknader som sägs vara effektiva. En effektiv aktiemarknad består av korrekt prissatta aktier och all tillgänglig information är avspeglad i aktiekursen. Här antas också att alla investerare har tillgång till samma information vilket minskar möjligheten för insatta placerare att skapa abnormala avkastningar. Hur effektiv är då den svenska aktiemarknaden?</p><p>Studiens problemformulering lyder: Är aktiemarknaden effektiv vid publicering av kvartalsrapporter?</p><p>Syftet är att genom en event study studera om aktiemarknaden är semi-starkt effektiv vid publicering av ny information i form av kvartals-rapporter. Vi ska studera om marknaden anpassar sig direkt till den nya informationen eller om det finns en anpassningsperiod då aktörer på marknaden kan göra abnormala avkastningar. Vi ska även se om marknaden är effektiv under dagarna innan publiceringen av kvartals- rapporten. Vi utgår från hypotesen om effektiva marknader för att med en kvantitativ metod studera problemet.</p><p>Vi har studerat publiceringen av kvartalsrapporter under 2003 till 2006 för 30 stycken av de mest omsatta aktierna på Large Cap-listan på Stockholmsbörsen. Fyra kvartalsrapporter per år ger 480 kvartal som delas in i tre portföljer beroende på om det verkliga resultatet som publicerades i kvartalsrapporten var bättre, sämre eller ungefär lika som det prognostiserade resultatet. För aktierna har vi beräknat den kumulativa abnormala avkastningen från 10 dagar innan publiceringen av kvartalsrapporten till 20 dagar efter publiceringen och har genom statistiska test prövat hypotesen att marknaden är effektiv. De perioder vi studerar är 10 dagar efter publiceringen av kvartalsrapporten, 20 dagar efter publiceringen, publiceringsdagen och 10 dagar innan publiceringen.</p><p>Resultatet visar att aktie- marknaden ej är effektiv fullt ut för de aktier vi valt att studera. För de aktier där det verkliga resultatet var sämre än förväntat eller ungefär lika som förväntat så är marknaden effektiv för perioderna omkring publiceringen av kvartalsrapporten förutom dagen då publiceringen sker. För de aktier där kvartalsrapporten visade ett resultat som var bättre än det prognostiserade fann vi att marknaden inte är effektiv för perioden direkt efter publiceringen, den längre perioden efter publiceringen, publiceringsdagen eller perioden innan publiceringen. Detta betyder att för de aktier där resultatet var bättre än det prognostiserade så kan aktörer på marknaden göra abnormala avkastningar.</p>

<p><strong>Background:</strong> The reasons why this study is conducted is because of the latest recession in the global economy. The current recession has made a lot of companies more aware of its cost, and in order to fit the new harsher economic climate the companies has to be more cost efficient. In order to do so many companies choose to reduce their amount of employees. When this happens in a recession, most of the layoffs are an effect of reactive causes, such as lower incoming orders, and fewer customers. This leads to a problem for the companies that don’t know how these kinds of layoffs will affect the value of the company’s stock. This leads to a question whether there is a significant pattern between layoffs that are a result of reactive reasons and the number of employees that are being laid off, in percentage of the total number of employees of the companies in question?</p><p><strong>Purpose:</strong> The reason for this study is to find out if there is any correlation between how many employees that is laid off, in percentage of the company’s total employees, and if different percentages have different impact in the valuations of the company’s stock.</p><p><strong>Approach:</strong> This study is made in the form of a modified event study and narrows down to the recession during 2008-01-01 to 2009-10-01, and only involves companies that are on trade on the stock market in Stockholm Sweden. The objects that are involved in this study are from the stock markets large and mid-cap sections. The criteria for companies in this study are that they should have made layoffs for reactive reasons in the time period that we are interested in. The variations in the company’s stock are compared to Stockholm’s stock markets OMX-index. The information needed to conduct this study is gathered from press realises and from financial reports made by the companies.</p><p><strong>Result and conclusions:</strong> The study shows that there is a correlation between how large percentage of the company’s total employees that are laid off and the effect of variations in the stock. The correlation is -0,306 but it is not statistical verified. This result was not in line with our hypotheses that we had concluded from earlier research and theories that are in the study. Earlier research on the American stock market shows a stronger connection between large percentage layoffs and how this makes the stock value to decrease.</p>

<p>Huvudsyftet med uppsatsen är att se hur ett företags annonsering om återköp av aktier påverkar dess börskurs i Sverige. Som delsyfte kommer även en undersökning göras om huruvida reaktionen skiljer sig mellan olika branscher samt om Sveriges reaktion skiljer sig från den tidigare forskningen i USA och i Storbritannien.<strong><em> </em></strong></p><p>Undersökningen har genomförts med hjälp av en eventstudie där den abnormala avkastningen beräknas. En intervju utförs för att bekräfta resultatet.</p><p>Resultatet gav en sammanlagd kumulativ avkastning på 0,57 %. Det visade även att det finns en skillnad mellan olika branschers reaktion på en annonsering av ett återköp. Sveriges reaktion jämförs bäst med Storbritanniens som har en abnormal avkastning på 1,14 % än med USA som har en abnormal avkastning på 3,5 %.<strong><em></em></strong></p> / <p>The purpose with this study is to examine how a company’s announcement of a repurchase of stocks affect the stock price in Sweden. There will also be an investigation about how the reaction differ between branches and if the reaction found here in Sweden is different than the ones that has been found in USA and the United Kingdom.</p><p>The examination has been carried out with an event study where the abnormal return has been calculated. An interview has been performed to confirm the result.</p><p>The result showed a cumulative abnormal return with 0,57 %. It also showed that there is a difference in reaction between branches. Sweden is more comparable with the United Kingdom who has an abnormal return with 1,14 % than it is with USA which has an abnormal return with 3,5 %.</p>