This dissertation is divided into six chapters, as foHows: Chapter 1 of this dissertation discusses the growing significance of FDI for developing countries. It compares FDT in developed and developing countries and analyses recent evidence ofFDI flows to developing countries. Chapter 2 analyses the (endogenous and exogenous) detenninants ofFDI flows into developing countries. Chapter 3 discusses the importance of FDI flows, which are essential for new investments or for financing fortuitous deficits in host countries, and looks at the adjustment mechanisms for the equilibrium of the balance of payments. Chapter 4 gives attention to FDI flows, the liberalisation of financial markets and the financial account of the balance of payments in developing countries in providing more opportunities and mechanisms for development and economic growth. Finally, chapter S examines and compares FDI flows tu South Africa and Angola - the biggest FDI recipients on the African continent. / Economics / MCom (Economics)

Net relationships are coordinated by the action of participants interconnected in many scales and geographic spatiality; in a social, political, economic, and solidarity character. The rural space presents a complexity of processes from such relationships in the 21st Century, with production restructuring and new organization and spatiality dynamics. In despite of the fact that the net relationships are not new, the study of their processes are relevant currently. In some specific spatialities the increasing importance of agrindustrial integration is highlighted, connected to the CAIs and familiar agrindustries. This way, the research aimed to distinguish and analyze the establishment and presence of production nets that coordinate and organize the productive processes in the rural space through vertical and horizontal relationships. The empirical referent was the town of Caibi in the state of Santa Catarina. The set of theoretical, methodological, and conceptual approaches led to a dialectical analysis and a systemic methodology. Different data collection techniques have been applied for the investigation. The conceptual thought conveyed to the terminology net and its current diffusion, as well as the establishment of nets in Brazilian agriculture, its processes and dynamics for the restructuring, approaching different types of nets and the implications for the involved participants. The modernization process in agriculture, from 1960, increased socio-economic inequality among participants, products, and nets. It has also caused the increase of rural exodus, making visible the structures and products specificities. This process led to new ways of net production in the vanguard of the 21st Century, due to the restructuring of the capitalist production mode. Different participants, products, and nets develop relationships through exogenous and endogenous paths, willing to enable the production system. The first makes the vertical spatiality, resulting into production increase and, consequently influencing the economic growth with innovations that, to a certain extent, enable the social group to stay in the rural area. A production mode integrated to the competitive market and cheap workforce exploitation contribute to the market fragility. The second is set horizontally and characterized by trusting bonds, learning, and innovation; it preserves the autonomy of the rural participant constituted by their know-how and culture. These nets might contribute for possible development ways simultaneously approaching welfare based on social, environmental, and economic harmony. / As relações em rede são coordenadas pelas ações dos atores interligados em diversas escalas e meios da espacialidade geográfica, seja de caráter social, político, econômico, familiar ou solidário. O rural apresenta uma complexidade de processos oriundos de tais relações na aurora do século XXI, com reestruturação da produção e de novas formas de organização na dinâmica das espacialidades. Apesar das relações em redes, não serem novas, o estudo de seus processos no rural ganharam relevância nos dias atuais. Em determinadas espacialidades evidencia-se a importância crescente do sistema de integração agroindustrial, ligado aos CAIs e as agroindústrias familiares. Deste modo, se objetivou distinguir e analisar a formação e a presença das redes de produção que coordenam e organizam os processos produtivos no meio rural, por meio de relações verticais e horizontais, configurando-se nas dinâmicas dessas espacialidades. Usou-se como referencial empírico o município de Caibi/SC, para isso, lançou-se mão de arcabouço teórico-metodológico-conceitual, embasado na análise dialética e na metodologia sistêmica. Os procedimentos de investigação se serviram de diferentes técnicas de coleta de dados e de ferramentas para seu tratamento. A reflexão conceitual se remeteu a origem da terminologia rede e a difusão deste termo na contemporaneidade, bem como do estabelecimento de redes na agricultura brasileira, seus processos e dinâmicas de reestruturação, abordando os diferentes tipos de redes e as implicações para os atores envolvidos. O processo de modernização na agricultura, a partir de 1960, agravou as desigualdades socioeconômicas entre atores, produtos e redes, provocando o aumento do êxodo rural e tornando visíveis as estruturas, as especificidades dos produtos e entre os atores. Este processo levou ao surgimento de novas formas de redes de produção na vanguarda do Século XXI, provocadas pela reestruturação do modo de produção capitalista. São diferentes atores, produtos e tipos de redes de produção tramando relações por vias exógenas ou endógenas ao local, no afã de garantir sua reprodução no sistema. As primeiras tramam a espacialidade verticalmente resultando no aumento da produção e, consequentemente influindo no crescimento econômico, com inovações que, de certo modo, possibilitam a permanência do grupo social no campo. Mesmo que para isso altere a cultura sob um sistema de produção integrado ao mercado competitivo e de exploração da mão-deobra barata, contribuindo para a fragilidade do mercado e debilitando o local. As segundas, estabelecidas na horizontalidade e em laços de confiança se regem pela aprendizagem e inovação, preservando a autonomia do ator rural constituída pelo seu saber-fazer e sua cultura. Estas redes podem estar contribuindo para possíveis caminhos do propalado desenvolvimento que concirna simultaneamente, a tríade do bem-estar, com base na harmonia do social, do ambiental e do econômico.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-07-29T15:07:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Priscila Pereira do Nascimento.pdf: 474011 bytes, checksum: b6cbafa02ec15e7743df5d1aebdcb5db (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-10-29 / The objective of the research to verify the feasibility of using an enzyme complex for pigs in the nursery phase, by evaluating the performance and digestibility of diets containing two types of carbohydrates with or without addition of enzyme complex containing carbohydrases, proteases and phytase . There were two experiments were conducted in the Department of Poultry Department of Animal Production, School of Veterinary UFG. In the first experiment was to evaluate the digestibility of the nutrients with the use of twelve animal hybrids, the genetic line Dalland barrow. The design was randomized blocks in time, with four treatments (T1: maize and soybean meal without the EC, T2: low tannin sorghum and soybean meal without the EC, T3: corn and soybean meal with CE, T4: low tannin sorghum and soybean meal with CE) and six replicates using a 2x2 factorial design, with them, carbohydrate and enzyme. The digestibility of experimental diets were formulated to isonutrient digestible amino acids. In Experiment II were weight gain, feed intake and feed conversion, besides the economic viability analysis of the diets to be tested. A total of 48 animals, 24 barrows and 24 females. The treatments were the same used in the metabolism trial, but T2 and T4 were formulated with lower levels of MS (-50 Kcal / kg) Ca (- 0.1%) and P (- 0.1%). The results were subjected to analysis of variance (ANOVA) and comparison of means by Tukey test (5%). For the digestibility experiment were not significant differences (P> 0.05) for the variables shown in any of the stages studied, except for calcium (P <0.05) which was absorbed in greater proportion with the addition of the enzyme. For the performance trial, according to analysis of variance no significant differences were observed in relation to food source of variation for the following variables PI, and CRT and CRD source of variation for enzyme parameters PI, PF, GPD, GPT did not suffer significant differences. As the interaction of food and enzyme differences were observed only for PF, and GPT and GPD CA. It was concluded that the substitution of corn by sorghum and the inclusion of the enzyme complex is feasible on the growth performance / Objetivou-se com a pesquisa verificar a viabilidade da utilização De um complexo enzimático para suínos em fase de creche, através da avaliação do desempenho e da digestibilidade de rações contendo dois tipos de carboidratos com e sem adição de complexo enzimático contendo carboidrases, proteases e fitase. Foram realizados dois experimentos foram realizados no Setor de Suinocultura do Departamento de Produção Animal da Escola de Veterinária da UFG. No Experimento I foi avaliada a digestibilidade dos nutrientes das rações, com a utilização de doze animais híbridos, da linha genética Dalland, machos castrados. O delineamento foi em blocos casualizados no tempo, com quatro tratamentos (T1: milho e farelo de soja sem o CE; T2: sorgo baixo tanino e farelo de soja sem o CE; T3: milho e farelo de soja com o CE; T4: sorgo baixo tanino e farelo de soja com o CE) e seis repetições utilizando-se esquema fatorial 2x2, sendo eles, carboidrato e enzima. As dietas do experimento de digestibilidade foram isonutritivas formuladas para aminoácidos digestíveis. No Experimento II foram avaliados ganho de peso, consumo de ração e conversão alimentar, além da análise de viabilidade econômica das dietas a serem testadas. Foram utilizados 48 animais, sendo 24 machos castrados e 24 fêmeas. Os tratamentos consistiram nos mesmos utilizados no ensaio de metabolismo, porém T2 e T4 foram formuladas com níveis mais baixos de EM (-50 Kcal/Kg) Ca (- 0,1%) e P (- 0,1%). Os resultados foram submetidos a análise de variância (ANOVA) e a comparação das médias pelo teste de Tukey (5%). Para o experimento de digestibilidade não foram observadas diferenças significativas (P>0,05) para nenhuma das variáveis apresentadas em nenhuma das fases estudadas, exceto para cálcio (P<0,05) que foi absorvido em maior proporção com a adição da enzima. Para o experimento de desempenho, segundo a análise de variância não foram observadas diferenças significativas em relação a fonte de variação alimento para as seguintes variáveis PI, CRD e CRT e para fonte de variação enzima os parâmetros PI, PF, GPD, GPT também não sofreram diferenças significativas. Quanto a interação dos fatores alimento e enzima foram observadas diferenças apenas para PF, GPD e GPT e CA. Concluiu-se que a substituição do milho pelo sorgo e a inclusão de complexo enzimático é viável quanto ao desempenho zootécnico

La douleur chronique est l’un des problèmes les plus complexes auxquels sont confrontées la médecine et les neurosciences. Au fil des siècles, il a été un casse-tête et reste encore un défi pour la recherche étant donné la complexité de sa nature. Parmi la quantité considérable de douleurs chroniques existantes, la douleur du membre fantôme est l’une de plus difficiles à traiter. Les études récentes montrent que les changements corticaux majeurs qui apparaissent après une amputation sont la conséquence de la douleur chronique fantôme. Je soutiens que la cause principale de la douleur fantôme est la non-acceptation de la perte d’une partie du corps, autrement dit, que la douleur mentale provoquée par la transformation de l’image de soi devient une douleur chronique physique, et que c’est l’esprit qui contrôle les réseaux cérébraux : bien qu’il émerge du cerveau, l’esprit arrive à le modifier du fait d’influences exogènes. L’analyse des études que j’ai réalisée pour tester mon hypothèse, m’a permis de constater que la perception douloureuse dépend de diverses influences externes qui sont indépendantes de l'entrée (signal) nociceptive. Je conclus que la plasticité corticale mise en évidence lors de l'expérience douloureuse chronique ne dépend pas seulement de l'action et de l'interaction entre les réseaux neuronaux dynamiques, mais aussi de la communication entre ces réseaux neuronaux (système endogène) et les réseaux environnementaux (système exogène), ces derniers étant capables de moduler la perception de la douleur. Je souligne donc l’importance de la reconnaissance du caractère mental de la douleur chronique et le besoin d’analyser sa dimension émotionnelle afin de la moduler. / Chronic pain is one of the most complex problems facing medicine and neuroscience. Over the centuries, it has been a puzzle and remains a research challenge given the complexity of its nature. Among the large number of existing different kinds of chronic pain, phantom limb pain is one of the most difficult to treat. Recent studies show that major cortical changes that appear after amputation are the result of chronic phantom limb pain. I argue that the main cause of phantom limb pain is the non-acceptance of the loss of a part of the body, that is to say, that the mental pain caused by the transformation of the self-image becomes a chronic physical pain. It is the mind that controls the cérébral networks : even if it emerges from the brain, the mind manages to modify it as a consequence of external influences. The analysis of the studies I performed to test my hypothesis, allowed me to confirm that the perception of pain depends on various external influences that are independent of the nociceptive signals. I conclude that the cortical plasticity highlighted during chronic painful experience does not only depend on the action and interaction between dynamic neural networks, but also on the communication between these neural networks (endogenous system) and environmental networks (exogenous system). These latter networks are capable of modulating the perception of pain. I therefore emphasize the importance of recognizing the mental nature of chronic pain and the need to analyze the emotional dimensions which modulate it.

Temps Inter-véhiculaire (TIV) est une variable microscopique fondamentale dans la théorie du trafic, et a été étudié depuis le début du développement de cette théorie, vers 1930. La distribution de probabilité du TIV décrit la répartition des arrivées des véhicules en un point donné et reflète dans une certaine mesure le comportement de conduite. Beaucoup d'applications en ingénierie du trafic viennent de la connaissance fine de cette variable. La thèse a pour but d'approfondir cette connaissance en modélisant la distribution du TIV dans différents contextes selon différents points de vue. Tout d'abord, deux méthodes d'échantillonnage, la méthode de groupement et la méthode de raffinement sont considérées. L'application numérique concerne deux bases de données, celle de la route nationale RN118 et celle de l'autoroute A6. Ensuite, trois types de modèles probabilistes sont analysés et classifiés. Une comparaison exhaustive des modèles et des méthodes d'estimation est réalisée ce qui conduit à considérer que le modèle gamma-GQM est supérieur aux autres modèles en matière de performance statistique et en efficacité de calcul. Différentes procédures d'estimation sont testées, celle qui est proposée et retenue favorise la stabilité des paramètres estimés. Six nouveaux modèles de TIV sont proposés, calibrés, analysés. Mis à part deux modèles de performance inférieure aux autres et au modèle gamma-GQM, quatre modèles sont équivalents voire meilleurs que le modèle gamma-GQM. Pour une raison pratique, le modèle Double Gamma est choisi à côté du modèle gamma-GQM, comme modèle de comparaison, dans toute la modélisation des TIV. Le calibrage des modèles et l'analyse des paramètres des modèles sont menés, à partir des données réelles, en considérant trois dimensions d'étude du trafic: les échelles macroscopique, mésoscopique et microscopique. Une quatrième dimension d'étude des TIV est constituée des facteurs exogènes au trafic. La prise en compte de ces facteurs exogènes, à chaque échelle macroscopique entraîne la distinction de deux types de facteur exogène : « empêchant » et « impulsant». Finalement, différentes approches de validation sont testées. L'approche proposée par « enveloppe des distributions » semble prometteuse pour le futur / Time Headway (TH) is a microscopic variable in traffic flow theories that has been studied since the 1930s. Distribution of this fundamental variable describes the arrival pattern of vehicles in traffic flow, so probabilistic modeling is the main approach to study TH and represent driving behaviour. The applications of the variable in traffic engineering are varied; include capacity calculation, microscopic simulation, traffic safety analysis, etc. This dissertation aims at modeling the TH distribution in different contexts. Firstly, the short-time sampling method and long-time sampling method are applied to obtain TH samples from the two data bases (the RN118 national roadway and the A6 motorway). Then, three probabilistic TH model types are analyzed and classified. An exhaustive comparison between the existing models and between the corresponding estimation methods lead to consider that the gamma-GQM is the best TH model in the literature. An estimation process is also proposed in order to obtain good and stable estimated results of the parameters. After that, the TH probabilistic modeling is developed by six new models. Except for the two ones which are worse, the four other models are statistically equivalent and/or better than the gamma-GQM. For practical reason, the Double Gamma model is selected, as a comparison model, with the gamma-GQM to calibrate all TH samples. Three traffic levels are considered: macroscopic, mesoscopic and microscopic. The effects of exogenous factors are also examined. Examining this factor in each macroscopic variable level leads to distinguish two following factor types: impeding factor and propulsive factor. Finally, different approaches for TH validation are tested. The proposed approach of “envelope of distributions” seems to be promising for future applications

由於傳統探討逃漏稅行為之文獻皆假設商品之消費可無限細分，然而假設商品之消費皆可無限細分並不符合現實世界的情況。因此，本文設定一模型包含了可無限細分之財貨及不可無限細分之財貨，目的在於探討納稅人在存在不可無限細分之財貨的環境下是否會改變其逃漏稅決策，進而得出不同於傳統逃漏稅文獻之結論。而為了與傳統逃漏稅文獻相對應，除了商品具不可分割性的假設之外，其餘參數仍沿用傳統逃漏稅文獻之設定：所得、稽徵機率和處罰倍率皆為外生。 透過模型設定，本文得到了三個和傳統逃漏稅文獻十分不同的結論。第一，在商品不可無限分割之下，納稅人願意進行逃漏稅的條件相對於藉由傳統逃漏稅模型所得之條件寬鬆，甚至是願意在對其不利的條件之下進行租稅逃漏。第二，逃漏稅額與稅率之間不全然為單調遞減的關係，其方向並不明確。因而可以改善傳統逃漏稅模型預測最適逃漏稅額與稅率之間為單調遞減關係之結果，使其更加符合現實世界的情況。 第三，在商品具有不可分割性的假設之下，納稅人的風險偏好會因而改變使其不為一純粹的風險趨避者。因此，本文發現若是政府藉由調降政策變數以允許納稅人進行租稅逃漏，則政府之預期稅收會因為允許納稅人逃漏稅而提高，進而得以提升整體之社會福利。最後，在本文的設定之下，最適的處罰倍率不必然為無窮大。 / Traditional tax evasion researches all assumed that consumptions of goods are divisible, but those assumptions do not conform reality. Thus, our research set a model include one divisible good and one indivisible good in order to inquire that if taxpayers change their tax evasion decision under the assumption. In order to correspond to traditional tax evasion researches, our model still practices the settings of traditional tax evasion researches, which include exogenous income, fine rate and probability rate. Through the setting, our research obtained three important conclusions that are different from traditional tax evasion researches. First, under our assumption, taxpayers are more willing to evolve in tax evasions even the conditions are unfavorable to them. Second, the relationship between tax evasion and tax rate is no longer monotone decreasing. Therefore, the conclusion is able to reform the impractical conclusion obtain by traditional tax evasion researches. Third, under our setting, taxpayers are no longer pure Risk-Averter. Hence, we discover that if government slash the policy parameter to encourage taxpayers evolve in tax evasions, expect revenue of government will rise. Since the expect revenue of government rises, social welfare rises as well.

The current understanding of lactate metabolism in fish is based almost entirely on interpretation of concentration measurements that cannot be used to infer changes in flux. Moreover, the transporters regulating these fluxes have never been characterized in rainbow trout. My goals were: (1) to quantify lactate fluxes in rainbow trout under normoxic resting conditions, during acute hypoxia, and exercise by continuous infusion of [U-14C] lactate; (2) to determine lactate uptake capacity of trout tissues by infusing exogenous lactate in fish rest and during graded exercise, and (3) to clone monocarboxylate transporters (MCTs) and determine the effects of exhausting exercise on their expression. Such information could prove important to understand the mechanisms underlying the classic “lactate retention” seen in trout white muscle after intense exercise. In normoxic resting fish, the rates of appearance (Ra) and disappearance (Rd) of lactate were always matched (~18 to 13 µmol kg-1 min-1), thereby maintaining a low baseline blood lactate concentration (~0.8 mM). In hypoxic fish, Ra lactate increased from baseline to 36.5 µmol kg-1 min-1, and was accompanied by an unexpected 52% increase in Rd reaching 30.3 µmol kg-1 min-1, accounting for a rise in blood lactate to 8.9 mM. In exercising fish, lactate flux was stimulated > 2.4 body lengths per second (BL s-1). As the fish reached critical swimming speed (Ucrit), Ra lactate was more stimulated (+67% to 40.4 μmol kg-1 min-1) than Rd (+41% to 34.7 μmol kg-1 min-1), causing an increase in blood lactate to 5.1mM. Fish infused with exogenous lactate stimulated Rd lactate by 300% (14 to 56 μmol kg-1 min-1) during graded exercise, whereas the Rd in resting fish increased by only 90% (21 to 40 µmol kg-1 min-1). Four MCT isoforms were partially cloned and characterized in rainbow trout: MCT1b was the most abundant in heart, and red muscle, but poorly expressed in gill and brain where MCT1a and MCT2 were prevalent. MCT4 was more expressed in the heart. Transcript levels of MCT2 (+260%; brain), MCT1a (+90%; heart) and MCT1b (+50%; heart) were stimulated by exhausting exercise. This study shows that: (i) the increase in Rd lactate plays a strategic role in reducing the lactate load imposed on the circulation. Without this response, blood lactate accumulation would double; (ii) a high capacity for lactate disposal in rainbow trout tissues is elicited by the increased blood-to-tissue lactate gradient when extra lactate is administered; and (iii) rainbow trout may be unable to release large lactate loads rapidly from white muscle after exhausting exercise (lactate retention) because they poorly express MCT4 in white muscle and fail to upregulate its expression during exercise.

Ce mémoire porte sur l’étude des modèles autorégressifs avec variables exogènes et sélection d’indices. La littérature classique regorge de textes concernant la sélection d’indices dans les modèles autorégressifs. Ces modèles sont particulièrement utiles pour des données macroéconomiques mesurées sur des périodes de temps modérées à longues. Effectivement, la lourde paramétrisation des modèles complets peut souvent être allégée en utilisant la sélection d’indices aboutissant ainsi à des modèles plus parcimonieux. Les modèles à variables exogènes sont très intéressants dans le contexte où il est connu que les variables à l’étude sont affectées par d’autres variables, jouant le rôle de variables explicatives, que l’analyste ne veut pas forcément modéliser. Ce mémoire se propose donc d’étudier les modèles autorégressifs vectoriels avec variables exogènes et sélection d’indices. Ces modèles ont été explorés, entre autres, par Lütkepohl (2005), qui se contente cependant d’esquisser les développements mathématiques. Nous concentrons notre étude sur l’inférence statistique sous des conditions précises, la modélisation ainsi que les prévisions. Notre objectif est de comparer les modèles avec sélection d’indices aux modèles autorégressifs avec variables exogènes complets classiques. Nous désirons déterminer si l’utilisation des modèles avec sélection d’indices est marquée par une différence favorable au niveau du biais et de l’écart-type des estimateurs ainsi qu’au niveau des prévisions de valeurs futures. Nous souhaitons également comparer l’efficacité de la sélection d’indices dans les modèles autorégressifs ayant des variables exogènes à celle dans les modèles autorégressifs. Il est à noter qu’une motivation première dans ce mémoire est l’estimation dans les modèles autorégressifs avec variables exogènes à sous-ensemble d’indices. Dans le premier chapitre, nous présentons les séries temporelles ainsi que les diverses notions qui y sont rattachées. De plus, nous présentons les modèles linéaires classiques multivariés, les modèles à variables exogènes puis des modèles avec sélection d’indices. Dans le deuxième chapitre, nous exposons le cadre théorique de l’estimation des moindres carrés dans les modèles autorégressifs à sous-ensemble d’indices ainsi que le comportement asymptotique de l’estimateur. Ensuite, nous développons la théorie pour l’estimation des moindres carrés (LS) ainsi que la loi asymptotique des estimateurs pour les modèles autorégressifs avec sélection d’indices (SVAR) puis nous faisons de même pour les modèles autorégressifs avec variables exogènes et tenant compte de la sélection des indices (SVARX). Spécifiquement, nous établissons la convergence ainsi que la distribution asymptotique pour l’estimateur des moindres carrés d’un processus autorégressif vectoriel à sous-ensemble d’indices et avec variables exogènes. Dans le troisième chapitre, nous appliquons la théorie spécifiée précédemment lors de simulations de Monte Carlo. Nous évaluons de manière empirique les biais et les écarts-types des coefficients trouvés lors de l’estimation ainsi que la proportion de fois que le modèle ajusté correspond au vrai modèle pour différents critères de sélection, tailles échantillonnales et processus générateurs des données. Dans le quatrième chapitre, nous appliquons la théorie élaborée aux chapitres 1 et 2 à un vrai jeu de données provenant du système canadien d’information socioéconomique (CANSIM), constitué de la production mensuelle de fromage mozzarella, cheddar et ricotta au Canada, expliquée par les prix mensuels du lait de bovin non transformé dans les provinces de Québec, d’Ontario et de la Colombie-Britannique pour la période allant de janvier 2003 à juillet 2021. Nous ajustons ces données à un modèle autorégressif avec variables exogènes complet puis à un modèle autorégressif avec variables exogènes et sélection d’indices. Nous comparons ensuite les résultats obtenus avec le modèle complet à ceux obtenus avec le modèle restreint. Mots-clés : Processus autorégressif à sous-ensemble d’indices, variables exogènes, esti mation des moindres carrés, sélection de modèle, séries chronologiques multivariées, processus stochastiques, séries chronologiques. / This Master’s Thesis focuses on the study of subset autoregressive models with exoge nous variables. Many texts from the classical literature deal with the selection of indexes in autoregressive models. These models are particularly useful for macroeconomic data measured over moderate to long periods of time. Indeed, the heavy parameterization of full models can often be simplified by using the selection of indexes, thus resulting in more parsimonious models. Models with exogenous variables are very interesting in the context where it is known that the variables under study are affected by other variables, playing the role of explanatory variables, not necessarily modeled by the analyst. This Master’s Thesis therefore proposes to study vector subset autoregressive models with exogenous variables. These models have been explored, among others, by Lütkepohl (2005), who merely sketches proofs of the statistical properties. We focus our study on statistical inference under precise conditions, modeling and forecasting for these models. Our goal is to compare restricted models to full classical autoregressive models with exogenous variables. We want to determine whether the use of restricted models is marked by a favorable difference in the bias and standard deviation properties of the estimators as well as in forecasting future values. We also compare the efficiency of index selection in autoregressive models with exogenous variables to that in autoregressive models. It should be noted that a primary motivation in this Master’s Thesis is the estimation in subset autoregressive models with exogenous variables. In the first chapter, we present time series as well as the various concepts which are attached to them. In addition, we present the classical multivariate linear models, models with exogenous variables and then we present subset models. In the second chapter, we present the theoretical framework for least squares estimation in subset autoregressive models as well as the asymptotic behavior of the estimator. Then, we develop the theory for the estimation of least squares (LS) as well as the asymptotic distribution of the estimators for the subset autoregressive models (SVAR), and we do the same for the subset autoregressive models with exogenous variables (SVARX). Specifically, we establish the convergence as well as the asymptotic distribution for the least squares estimator of a subset autoregressive process with exogenous variables. In the third chapter, we apply the theory specified above in Monte Carlo simulations. We evaluate empirically the biases and the standard deviations of the coefficients found during the estimation as well as the proportion of times that the adjusted model matches the true model for different selection criteria, sample size and data generating processes. In the fourth chapter, we apply the theory developed in chapters 1 and 2 to a real dataset from the Canadian Socio-Economic Information System (CANSIM) consisting of the monthly production of mozzarella, cheddar and ricotta cheese in Canada, explained by the monthly prices of unprocessed bovine milk in the provinces of Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia from January 2003 to July 2021. We fit these data with a full autoregressive model with exogenous variables and then to a subset autoregressive model with exogenous variables. Afterwards, we compare the results obtained with the complete model to those obtained with the subset model. Keywords : Subset autoregressive process, exogenous variables, least squares estimation, model selection, multivariate time series, stochastic process, time series.

Thesis advisor: Geoffrey Sanzenbacher / Labor unions are generally considered to be beneficial for workers wages and benefits, but have been on the decline for decades. This analysis questions why workers appear more hesitant to vote for labor unions now than in the past by investigating what factors influence individual labor union votes. Specifically, this analysis aims to pinpoint the effect that outside minimum wages have on union election outcomes. Using data from the United States National Labor Relations Board, Michigan State, IPUMS USA and the US Census Bureau, I generated two models – a logistic regression, and an ordinary least squares regression – that each predict the likelihood of union support based upon outside minimum wages, after controlling for a variety of factors including but not limited to the county unemployment rate, the existence of the Right to Work law, and county-level demographics. I find that the difference between state-level or city-level minimum wages and the federal minimum wage has a positive relationship with the likelihood of union certification. Specifically, I find that union support is most likely in areas where the local-level minimum wage is $4.18 higher than the federal minimum wage in the logistic model, and $5.13 higher than the federal minimum in the ordinary least squares model, ceteris paribus. Put differently, with a federal minimum wage of $7.25, areas with minimum wages around $12 are most likely to see union elections pass. Overall, these results suggest that workers are more likely to vote for a union when local exogenous economic environments are strong. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2022. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Departmental Honors. / Discipline: Economics.

In this thesis, the main focus is to formulate and test a suitable model forexogenous fault detection in swarms containing unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs), which are aerial autonomous systems. FOI Swedish DefenseResearch Agency provided the thesis project and research question. Inspiredby previous work, the implementation use behavioral feature vectors (BFVs)to simulate the movements of the UAVs and to identify anomalies in theirbehaviors. The chosen algorithm for fault detection is the density-based cluster analysismethod known as the Local Outlier Factor (LOF). This method is built on thek-Nearest Neighbor(kNN) algorithm and employs densities to detect outliers.In this thesis, it is implemented to detect faulty agents within the swarm basedon their behavior. A confusion matrix and some associated equations are usedto evaluate the accuracy of the method. Six features are selected for examination in the LOF algorithm. The firsttwo features assess the number of neighbors in a circle around the agent,while the others consider traversed distance, height, velocity, and rotation.Three different fault types are implemented and induced in one of the agentswithin the swarm. The first two faults are motor failures, and the last oneis a sensor failure. The algorithm is successfully implemented, and theevaluation of the faults is conducted using three different metrics. Several setsof experiments are performed to assess the optimal value for the LOF thresholdand to understand the model’s performance. The thesis work results in a strongLOF value which yields an acceptable F1 score, signifying the accuracy of theimplementation is at a satisfactory level. / I denna uppsats är huvudfokuset att formulera och testa en lämplig modellför detektion av exogena fel i svärmar som innehåller obemannade flygfordon(UAV:er), vilka utgör autonoma luftburna system. Examensarbetet ochforskningsfrågan tillhandahölls av FOI, Totalförsvarets forskningsinstitut.Inspirerad av tidigare arbete används beteendemässiga egenskapsvektorer(BFV:er) för att simulera rörelserna hos UAV:erna och för att identifieraavvikelser i deras beteenden. Den valda algoritmen för felavkänning är en densitetsbaserad klusterana-lysmetod som kallas Local Outlier Factor (LOF). Denna metod byggerpå k-Nearest Neighbor-algoritmen och använder densiteter för att upptäckaavvikande datapunkter. I denna uppsats implementeras den för att detekterafelaktiga agenter inom svärmen baserat på deras beteende. En förväxlings-matris(Confusion Matrix) och dess tillhörande ekvationer används för attutvärdera metodens noggrannhet. Sex egenskaper valdes för undersökning i LOF-algoritmen. De första tvåegenskaperna bedömer antalet grannar i en cirkel runt agenter, medande andra beaktar avstånd, höjd, hastighet och rotation. Tre olika feltyperimplementeras och framkallas hos en av agenterna inom svärmen. De förstatvå felen är motorfel, och det sista är ett sensorfel. Algoritmen implementerasframgångsrikt och utvärderingen av felen genomförs med hjälp av treolika mått. Ett antal uppsättningar av experiment utförs för att hitta detoptimala värdet för LOF-gränsen och för att förstå modellens prestanda.Examensarbetet resultat är ett optimalt LOF-värde som genererar ettacceptabelt F1-score, vilket innebär att noggrannheten för implementationennår en tillfredsställande nivå.