In this thesis, the main focus is to formulate and test a suitable model forexogenous fault detection in swarms containing unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs), which are aerial autonomous systems. FOI Swedish DefenseResearch Agency provided the thesis project and research question. Inspiredby previous work, the implementation use behavioral feature vectors (BFVs)to simulate the movements of the UAVs and to identify anomalies in theirbehaviors. The chosen algorithm for fault detection is the density-based cluster analysismethod known as the Local Outlier Factor (LOF). This method is built on thek-Nearest Neighbor(kNN) algorithm and employs densities to detect outliers.In this thesis, it is implemented to detect faulty agents within the swarm basedon their behavior. A confusion matrix and some associated equations are usedto evaluate the accuracy of the method. Six features are selected for examination in the LOF algorithm. The firsttwo features assess the number of neighbors in a circle around the agent,while the others consider traversed distance, height, velocity, and rotation.Three different fault types are implemented and induced in one of the agentswithin the swarm. The first two faults are motor failures, and the last oneis a sensor failure. The algorithm is successfully implemented, and theevaluation of the faults is conducted using three different metrics. Several setsof experiments are performed to assess the optimal value for the LOF thresholdand to understand the model’s performance. The thesis work results in a strongLOF value which yields an acceptable F1 score, signifying the accuracy of theimplementation is at a satisfactory level. / I denna uppsats är huvudfokuset att formulera och testa en lämplig modellför detektion av exogena fel i svärmar som innehåller obemannade flygfordon(UAV:er), vilka utgör autonoma luftburna system. Examensarbetet ochforskningsfrågan tillhandahölls av FOI, Totalförsvarets forskningsinstitut.Inspirerad av tidigare arbete används beteendemässiga egenskapsvektorer(BFV:er) för att simulera rörelserna hos UAV:erna och för att identifieraavvikelser i deras beteenden. Den valda algoritmen för felavkänning är en densitetsbaserad klusterana-lysmetod som kallas Local Outlier Factor (LOF). Denna metod byggerpå k-Nearest Neighbor-algoritmen och använder densiteter för att upptäckaavvikande datapunkter. I denna uppsats implementeras den för att detekterafelaktiga agenter inom svärmen baserat på deras beteende. En förväxlings-matris(Confusion Matrix) och dess tillhörande ekvationer används för attutvärdera metodens noggrannhet. Sex egenskaper valdes för undersökning i LOF-algoritmen. De första tvåegenskaperna bedömer antalet grannar i en cirkel runt agenter, medande andra beaktar avstånd, höjd, hastighet och rotation. Tre olika feltyperimplementeras och framkallas hos en av agenterna inom svärmen. De förstatvå felen är motorfel, och det sista är ett sensorfel. Algoritmen implementerasframgångsrikt och utvärderingen av felen genomförs med hjälp av treolika mått. Ett antal uppsättningar av experiment utförs för att hitta detoptimala värdet för LOF-gränsen och för att förstå modellens prestanda.Examensarbetet resultat är ett optimalt LOF-värde som genererar ettacceptabelt F1-score, vilket innebär att noggrannheten för implementationennår en tillfredsställande nivå.

The exogenous shock that Russia's invasion of Ukraine entailed brought great challenges and demands for change in companies worldwide. Governing under these conditions is not easy, nor is knowing what is actually right to do. There is research on turbulent environments and exogenous shocks, divestments, and legitimacy, but research on the interaction between these is limited. In this study, we examine how companies have responded to exogenous shocks, more specifically how Swedish MNCs have acted and communicated as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. The study consists of 69 Swedish MNCs that were active in Russia pre-invasion and their communications and actions as a result of this event, with data drawn from press releases, company reports, state registers and the media. The results show that many of the examined companies have acted in a similar way and divested the Russian market, albeit with varying quickness and forcefulness, thus adopting an approach consistent with what may be considered to be a legitimate strategy, with a few exceptions where the companies' actions has not been as consistent. What this means is that despite the fact that these decisions are made by the respective company management, the measures are generally in line with each other, which may be a result of pressure from both internal and external stakeholders and society at large.

Due to the fact that there has been a dramatic increase in the number of adolescents with unhealthy eating habits there is a growing recognition on the part of professionals, educators and parents for the development and implementation of an intervention programme for the facilitation of healthy eating habits. Relevant literature on eating behaviour indicated that low self-concept is associated with health compromising behaviours such as unhealthy eating habits. The nature of self-concept and eating habits was explained in order to determine important exogenous and endogenous factors as well as perspectives to use as a background for the development of a Psychoeducational intervention programme. Theoretical principles and practical applications of cognitive-behaviour therapy and hypnotherapy were analysed and used as a foundation for the development of the intervention programme. The researcher developed an Interactionism Model of Self-concept and Eating habits and a Psycho-educational programme involving cognitive-behaviour therapy and hypnotherapy to improve eating habits of adolescents. Valid and reliable measuring instruments were used in order to measure self-concept and eating habits. A pre-test post-test design was implemented to nine participants using the Adolescent Self-concept Scale (ASCS), Eating Habits Questionnaire for Adolescents (EHQA) developed by the researcher (2001) and Body Mass Index (BMI). Diagnostic measuring instruments also included the Emotions Profile Index (EPI), Draw A Person (DAP), Sentence Completion, Dietary Record and interview. Results from the empirical study indicated that adolescents with low self-concept and unhealthy eating habits responded positively to the Psycho-educational programme involving cognitive-behaviour and hypnotherapy. Specifically, there was a significant increase in selfconcept and a satisfactory improvement in eating habits. Recommendations for psychotherapy practice, educators and parents were made, based on the current research results. The contribution of the study lies in the fact that a hands-on practical implementation of the Psycho-educational programme was developed to facilitate the improvement of eating habits and it further contributes to the psychological well-being and healthy life-style of adolescents having positive implications for society. / Educational Studies / D.Ed. (Psychology of Education)

La capture contingente de l’attention est un phénomène dans lequel les mécanismes d’orientation endogène et exogène de l’attention interagissent, de sorte qu’une propriété qui est pertinente à la tâche en cours, et donc qui fait l’objet de contrôles attentionnels descendants, endogènes, capture l’attention de façon involontaire, exogène, vers sa position spatiale. Dans cette thèse, trois aspects de ce phénomène ont été étudiés. Premièrement, en explorant le décours temporel de la capture contingente de l’attention et la réponse électrophysiologique à des distracteurs capturant ainsi l’attention, il a été établi que le déficit comportemental symptomatique de cette forme de capture était lié à un déploiement de l’attention visuospatiale vers la position du distracteur, et que ce traitement spatialement sélectif pouvait être modulé par le partage d’autres propriétés entre le distracteur et la cible. Deuxièmement, l’utilisation des potentiels liés aux événements a permis de dissocier l’hypothèse de capture contingente de l’attention et l’hypothèse de capture pure de l’attention. Selon cette interprétation, un stimulus ne peut capturer l’attention aux stades préattentifs de traitement que s’il présente le plus fort signal ascendant parmi tous les stimuli présents. Les contrôles attentionnels descendants ne serviraient donc qu’à désengager l’attention d’un tel stimulus. Les résultats présentés ici vont à l’encontre d’une telle interprétation, puisqu’un déploiement de l’attention visuospatiale, indexé par la présence d’une N2pc, n’a été observé que lorsqu’un distracteur périphérique possédait une caractéristique pertinente à la tâche en cours, même lorsque ses propriétés de bas niveau n’étaient pas plus saillantes que celles des autres items présents. Finalement, en utilisant un paradigme où la cible était définie en fonction de son appartenance à une catégorie alphanumérique, il a été démontré que des contrôles attentionnels en faveur d’un attribut conceptuel pouvaient guider l’attention visuospatiale de façon involontaire, rejetant une nouvelle fois l’hypothèse de la capture pure de l’attention. / Contingent involuntary orienting is a phenomenon in which endogenous and exogenous attentional mechanisms interact, such that an item captures attention only if it shares an attribute that is relevant for the task at hand. Hence, top-down attentional control settings are established endogenously in favour of the relevant attribute, but stimuli sharing this attribute draw attention to their location involuntarily. The present thesis explores three aspects of this phenomenon. First, by studying the time course of this contingent capture effect, and by measuring event-related potentials (ERPs) to capturing distractors, it has been established that the performance deficits linked to contingent capture are in fact due to a deployment of visuospatial attention to the location of the distractor. Moreover, this spatially selective processing of the capturing distractor can be modulated if the distractor shares another target attribute, beside the target defining attribute. The ERP technique also permitted the dissociation of the contingent involuntary orienting hypothesis and the pure capture with brief attentional dwell time hypothesis. According to the latter interpretation, only salient singletons have the ability to capture attention at preattentive stages of processing. Therefore, top-down attentional control settings serve only to disengage attention from the location of such singletons when they do not share target features. The present results argue against this interpretation, because a deployment of visuospatial attention, indexed by the presence of the N2pc, was observed only in response to peripheral distractors sharing the target-defining attribute, even when all items in the stimulus displays were equated in terms of bottom-up salience. Lastly, when alphanumeric category was used to define the target, it was shown that top-down attentional control settings in favour of such conceptual attributes could be successfully implemented and used to guide visuospatial attention in an exogenous fashion, providing further evidence against the pure capture hypothesis.

Eine biochemische Indikation des Anteils exogener organischer Kohlenstoffquellen (EOC), der nach dem Eintrag potenziell im Boden verbleibt (Cpot) wurde entwickelt. Haupthypothese dieser Studie war, dass der Abbau von EOC durch die biochemische Zusammensetzung vorhergesagt werden kann, welche bei Pflanzenrückständen von der Kulturart, dem Pflanzenrückstandstyp sowie dem Anbausystem und im Allgemeinen vom Ausgangssubstrat organischer Düngestoffe und der EOC-Kategorie (pyrogen , mikrobiell und pflanzlich) beeinflusst wird. Zunächst wurden Pflanzenrückstände im Energiepflanzenanbau zur Biogasgewinnung (Restpflanze / Stroh, Stoppeln, Grobwurzeln, Feinwurzeln, natürlicher Bestandsabfall) von Mais, Sorghum, Sudangras, Wintergetreide, Hafer, Erbse in Einzel-, Zwei- und Mischkultursystemen betrachtet. In einem zweiten Schritt wurden Pflanzenrückstände im Allgemeinen mit organischen Düngern, Komposten, Rückständen aus anaerober Vergärung in der Biogasproduktion (Gärrückstände) und Biokohlen verglichen. Die biochemische Zusammensetzung von EOC wurde durch die Konzentrationen von Kohlenstoff- (C), Stickstoff (N), wasserlöslicher Kohlehydrate (WSC), Hemizellulose (HEM), Zellulose (CEL) und Lignin (LIC) in g pro kg Trockenmasse dargestellt. In Inkubationsversuchen wurde EOC gleichmäßig mit Boden vermischt und über 310 Tage die Zugabe-induzierte Kohlendioxid-Freisetzung gemessen. Cpot wurde als Grenzwert der Modellschätzung für die Inkubationsdaten bestimmt. Die Beziehung zwischen biochemischer Zusammensetzung und Cpot wurde durch die Partial-Least-Squares-Regression-Methode abgeleitet. Cpot unterschied sich stärker zwischen verschiedenen organischen Düngestoffen, als speziell zwischen verschiedenen Pflanzenrückständen und konnte durch die biochemische Zusammensetzung vorhergesagt werden. Der Indikator für Cpot (in g C pro kg EOC) wurde als Ipot = 269 + 13 N – 0.5 WSC + 0.7 CEL + 1.5 LIC für Pflanzenrückstände und im Allgemeinen als Ipot = 924 – 1.9 C + 2.0 LIC vorgeschlagen. / A biochemical indication for the fraction of exogenous organic carbon (EOC), potentially remaining in soil after application (Cpot) has been developed. Main hypothesis of this study was that decomposition of EOC can be predicted by the biochemical composition, which in case of plant residues is influenced by the crop residue type, crop species and agricultural management and in general depends on the original substrate and category (pyrogen, microbial, and plant-derived EOC) of organic materials. A first set of EOC was created, containing plant residues in energy crop cultivation for biogas production (shoot / straw, stubble, coarse root, fine root, and litter) of maize, sorghum, sudan grass, winter cereal, pea, and oats in single-, double- and intercropping systems. In a second set of EOC, plant residues in general were compared with other organic fertilisers, urban composts, residues of anaerobic fermentation in biogas production (digestates), and biochar. The biochemical composition of EOC was characterised by the concentrations of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), water-soluble carbohydrates (WSC), hemicelluloses (HEM), cellulose (CEL), and lignin (LIC) in g per kg dry matter. In incubation experiments, EOC was homogeneously incorporated into soil and EOC-induced carbon dioxide-release was measured for 310 d. Cpot was determined as modelled limit for the incubation results. Finally, the relation between biochemical composition and Cpot of EOC was evaluated by the partial least squares regression method. Cpot largely varied between different types and categories of EOC, while less variation was obtained between different plant residues. The biochemical composition was predictive for Cpot (expressed as g C per kg EOC), proposing the biochemical indicator as Ipot = 269 + 13 N – 0.5 WSC + 0.7 CEL + 1.5 LIC specifically for plant residues and as Ipot = 924 – 1.9 C + 2.0 LIC for EOC in general.

本研究探討高齡者在視覺搜尋作業中，其由上而下（Top-down）與由下而上（Bottom-up）的注意力運作對於情緒刺激的反應，是否會因為注意力功能退化而與年輕成人的表現不同。過去研究指出，雖然高齡者注意力功能衰退，但是高齡者的由上而下注意力運作，仍可以幫助高齡者的表現。為了解由上而下注意力運作是否對於高齡者的反應有所幫助，本研究以兩個實驗分別探討內因與外因線索以及操弄訊息量所造成的影響。 實驗一包括80％有效的內因線索與25％有效的外因線索兩階段，外因線索階段為由下而上注意力運作，內因線索階段則為由上而下注意力運作，獨變項為年齡（高齡者、年輕成人）、情緒（生氣、快樂）以及線索有效情況（有效線索、中性線索、無效線索），記錄反應時間與正確率。實驗二的兩階段使用不同訊息量的外因線索（80％有效比例為高訊息量、25％有效比例為低訊息量），其餘操弄都與實驗一相同，低訊息量為單純的由下而上注意力運作，而高訊息量兼具由下而上與由上而下注意力運作。 研究結果發現，兩實驗高齡者與年輕成人都對於生氣情緒反應較快，符合威脅優勢。高齡者較年輕人更需要借助由上而下的注意力運作幫助反應，高訊息量的線索對於高齡者幫助也較年輕成人大。另外，實驗一增益效果的結果顯示，有效線索在高齡者搜尋生氣臉孔幫助較大，在年輕成人則搜尋快樂臉孔幫助較大，但是實驗二結果則顯示，有效線索在高齡者與年輕成人搜尋快樂臉孔的幫助都較生氣臉孔大，兩實驗的年齡與情緒的交互作用結果不同可能與高齡者異質性有關。由研究結果可知，由上而下注意力運作對於高齡者在情緒臉孔反應有幫助，在未來實務上，可以多運用由上而下注意力運作的線索幫助高齡者反應。 / This research is aim to understand attention in visual search of emotional faces in aging. Two types of attention process, that is top-down and bottom-up attention, were concerned in this study. In past researches, there are empirical evidences showing age-related declination in attention function, especially in bottom-up attention. But top-down attention is still playing an important role in doing task for the older adults. In order to understand the effect of top-down attention in aging, two experiments using endogenous or exogenous spatial cues were designed. Participants have to respond whether there is a different emotional face or not in a visual search task. The independent variables are age（aging and young）, emotional face（happy and angry）, and cue（valid, neutral, and invalid）. Dependent variables are reaction times and accuracy. In Experiment 1, there are two stages: 80％ valid endogenous cues and 25％ valid exogenous cues. The endogenous cues stage and exogenous cues stage were designed to probe top-down attention and bottom-up attention, respectively. In Experiment 2, there are two stages: 80％ valid exogenous cues（highly informative cues）and 25％ valid exogenous cues（non-informative cues）. Using highly informative exogenous cues involve both top-down and bottom-up attention. In contrast, non-informative exogenous cues only trigger bottom-up attention. The major results of this study support threat advantage hypothesis that both older and young adults respond to angry face target quicker than happy face. Benefit from top-down attention was larger in older adults than young adults. Highly informative cues help older adults more in searching emotional faces than young adults. The cuing effects in two emotional face conditions were different between Experiment 1 and 2. This inconsistent result maybe relates to aging heterogeneity. In conclusion, top-down attention can help older adults search for emotional faces.

La presente Tesis Doctoral tiene como objetivo profundizar en los conocimientos sobre ritmos biológicos y comportamiento alimentario de tres especies de peces teleósteos de interés en acuicultura: tenca (Tinca tinca), trucha alpina (Salvelinus alpinus) y lubina (Dicentrarchus labrax).Con este fin se ha investigado la influencia de factores bióticos y abióticos en la sincronización de los ritmos de actividad locomotora y alimentaria, así como el carácter endógeno y/o exógeno de estos ritmos. A su vez, se ha profundizado en el comportamiento individual de truchas alpinas mantenidas en grupo, mediante una nueva metodología que permite estudiar los ritmos de demanda voluntaria de alimento y la autoselección dietaria de los individuos. Asimismo, se ha analizado la influencia de los niveles endógenos de melatonina, modificados mediante la administración de melatonina exógena y de su aminoácido precursor (triptófano) en la dieta, sobre la concentración de cortisol y el ritmo de actividad locomotora en lubina. / This Doctoral Thesis deeps into the knowledge about biological rhythms and feeding behaviour in three teleostean fish species of interest in aquaculture: tench (Tinca tinca), Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus) and European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax). With this aim, the influence of biotic and abiotic factors has been researched in the field of synchronization of locomotor and feeding rhythms, as far as the endogenous or exogenous character of these rhythms. Moreover, individual feeding behaviour of Arctic charr kept in groups has been studied trying a new methodology which allows the monitoring of feeding demands and dietary self-selection of individuals. Furthermore, influence of endogenous melatonin modified through exogenous melatonin and its precursor amino acid (tryptophan) administration in the diet, in the cortisol levels and locomotor activity rhythms in sea bass were analysed.

La capture contingente de l’attention est un phénomène dans lequel les mécanismes d’orientation endogène et exogène de l’attention interagissent, de sorte qu’une propriété qui est pertinente à la tâche en cours, et donc qui fait l’objet de contrôles attentionnels descendants, endogènes, capture l’attention de façon involontaire, exogène, vers sa position spatiale. Dans cette thèse, trois aspects de ce phénomène ont été étudiés. Premièrement, en explorant le décours temporel de la capture contingente de l’attention et la réponse électrophysiologique à des distracteurs capturant ainsi l’attention, il a été établi que le déficit comportemental symptomatique de cette forme de capture était lié à un déploiement de l’attention visuospatiale vers la position du distracteur, et que ce traitement spatialement sélectif pouvait être modulé par le partage d’autres propriétés entre le distracteur et la cible. Deuxièmement, l’utilisation des potentiels liés aux événements a permis de dissocier l’hypothèse de capture contingente de l’attention et l’hypothèse de capture pure de l’attention. Selon cette interprétation, un stimulus ne peut capturer l’attention aux stades préattentifs de traitement que s’il présente le plus fort signal ascendant parmi tous les stimuli présents. Les contrôles attentionnels descendants ne serviraient donc qu’à désengager l’attention d’un tel stimulus. Les résultats présentés ici vont à l’encontre d’une telle interprétation, puisqu’un déploiement de l’attention visuospatiale, indexé par la présence d’une N2pc, n’a été observé que lorsqu’un distracteur périphérique possédait une caractéristique pertinente à la tâche en cours, même lorsque ses propriétés de bas niveau n’étaient pas plus saillantes que celles des autres items présents. Finalement, en utilisant un paradigme où la cible était définie en fonction de son appartenance à une catégorie alphanumérique, il a été démontré que des contrôles attentionnels en faveur d’un attribut conceptuel pouvaient guider l’attention visuospatiale de façon involontaire, rejetant une nouvelle fois l’hypothèse de la capture pure de l’attention. / Contingent involuntary orienting is a phenomenon in which endogenous and exogenous attentional mechanisms interact, such that an item captures attention only if it shares an attribute that is relevant for the task at hand. Hence, top-down attentional control settings are established endogenously in favour of the relevant attribute, but stimuli sharing this attribute draw attention to their location involuntarily. The present thesis explores three aspects of this phenomenon. First, by studying the time course of this contingent capture effect, and by measuring event-related potentials (ERPs) to capturing distractors, it has been established that the performance deficits linked to contingent capture are in fact due to a deployment of visuospatial attention to the location of the distractor. Moreover, this spatially selective processing of the capturing distractor can be modulated if the distractor shares another target attribute, beside the target defining attribute. The ERP technique also permitted the dissociation of the contingent involuntary orienting hypothesis and the pure capture with brief attentional dwell time hypothesis. According to the latter interpretation, only salient singletons have the ability to capture attention at preattentive stages of processing. Therefore, top-down attentional control settings serve only to disengage attention from the location of such singletons when they do not share target features. The present results argue against this interpretation, because a deployment of visuospatial attention, indexed by the presence of the N2pc, was observed only in response to peripheral distractors sharing the target-defining attribute, even when all items in the stimulus displays were equated in terms of bottom-up salience. Lastly, when alphanumeric category was used to define the target, it was shown that top-down attentional control settings in favour of such conceptual attributes could be successfully implemented and used to guide visuospatial attention in an exogenous fashion, providing further evidence against the pure capture hypothesis.

Due to the fact that there has been a dramatic increase in the number of adolescents with unhealthy eating habits there is a growing recognition on the part of professionals, educators and parents for the development and implementation of an intervention programme for the facilitation of healthy eating habits. Relevant literature on eating behaviour indicated that low self-concept is associated with health compromising behaviours such as unhealthy eating habits. The nature of self-concept and eating habits was explained in order to determine important exogenous and endogenous factors as well as perspectives to use as a background for the development of a Psychoeducational intervention programme. Theoretical principles and practical applications of cognitive-behaviour therapy and hypnotherapy were analysed and used as a foundation for the development of the intervention programme. The researcher developed an Interactionism Model of Self-concept and Eating habits and a Psycho-educational programme involving cognitive-behaviour therapy and hypnotherapy to improve eating habits of adolescents. Valid and reliable measuring instruments were used in order to measure self-concept and eating habits. A pre-test post-test design was implemented to nine participants using the Adolescent Self-concept Scale (ASCS), Eating Habits Questionnaire for Adolescents (EHQA) developed by the researcher (2001) and Body Mass Index (BMI). Diagnostic measuring instruments also included the Emotions Profile Index (EPI), Draw A Person (DAP), Sentence Completion, Dietary Record and interview. Results from the empirical study indicated that adolescents with low self-concept and unhealthy eating habits responded positively to the Psycho-educational programme involving cognitive-behaviour and hypnotherapy. Specifically, there was a significant increase in selfconcept and a satisfactory improvement in eating habits. Recommendations for psychotherapy practice, educators and parents were made, based on the current research results. The contribution of the study lies in the fact that a hands-on practical implementation of the Psycho-educational programme was developed to facilitate the improvement of eating habits and it further contributes to the psychological well-being and healthy life-style of adolescents having positive implications for society. / Educational Studies / D.Ed. (Psychology of Education)

Der tatsächliche Erfolg einer Immobilieninvestition wird maßgeblich von der zukünftigen Entwicklung des wirtschaftlichen Umfeldes bestimmt. Im Rahmen einer Immobilieninvestition sind für Investoren z. B. die zukünftigen Mieteinnahmen oder die allgemeine Wertentwicklung der Immobilie entscheidend. Da jedoch Entscheidungen in der Immobilienwirtschaft langfristiger Natur sind, kommt der Zukunftsorientiertheit und des damit verbundenen Risikos eine große Bedeutung zu. Die Entstehung von Immobilienzyklen kann nicht nur mit realen und monetären Fundamentaldaten (z. B. Bruttoinlandsprodukt, Zinsentwicklung) erklärt werden, sondern auch mit psychologischen Faktoren, wie beispielsweise Erwartungen und Einstellungen der Marktteilnehmer. Da mathematisch-statistische Prognoseverfahren diese Komponente nur unzureichend abbilden können, soll die Dissertation einen Beitrag zur Erforschung der Expertenbefragung als Prognoseinstrument darstellen. Ein weiterer Grund besteht darin, dass in der bisher veröffentlichten Fachliteratur der Expertenbefragung als Prognoseverfahren nur eine geringe oder gar keine Bedeutung beigemessen wurde. Ziel ist es herauszustellen, ob und unter welchen Voraussetzungen und Bedingungen Expertenbefragungen zur Prognose von Immobilienwerten geeignet sind und ob die Kombination der Ergebnisse der Expertenbefragungen mit den Ergebnissen mathematisch-statistischer Prognoseverfahren eine Erhöhung der Prognosegenauigkeit ermöglicht. Hierzu wird die zukünftige Entwicklung verschiedener Immobilienwerte für 2 bis 3 Jahre und für 5 Jahre durch Expertenumfragen und mit Hilfe ausgewählter mathematisch-statistischer Prognoseverfahren prognostiziert. Um die Güte der Expertenschätzungen beurteilen zu können, werden die Prognoseergebnisse mit der tatsächlichen Entwicklung und mit den Ergebnissen der mathematisch-statistischen Prognoseverfahren verglichen. In einer abschließenden Gegenüberstellung sollen Aussagen darüber getroffen werden, ob Expertenbefragungen für Prognosezwecke geeignet sind. Ein besonderer Schwerpunkt liegt dabei auch auf psychologischen Aspekten bzw. endogenen und exogenen Einflussgrößen, welche sich auf das Antwortverhalten der Experten auswirken können. Ziel ist es deshalb weiterhin, eine Handlungsempfehlung für die Durchführung von Expertenbefragungen - speziell für die Abgabe von mehrjährigen Trends und auch für Zwecke der Verkehrswertermittlung - zu geben.