The Staffing for Adequate Fire and Emergency Responders (SAFER) Grant Program: An Analysis of Fiscal Federalism and How Local Governments Utilize SAFER Grant Funding. Thomas J. Layou ABSTRACT This dissertation presents a comprehensive analysis of the Staffing for Adequate Fire and Emergency Responders (SAFER) grant program's impact on Virginia's local governments, emphasizing their fiscal strategies, emergency management practices, and demographic relationships. By incorporating theories of fiscal federalism and the political economy, this study explores how SAFER grants, provided by the FEMA, influence local tax policies, economic stability, and the staffing levels in fire and emergency medical service departments, against the backdrop of a critical need for enhanced public safety post the 9/11 terrorist attacks. The second chapter provides a review of the literature tracing the evolution of fiscal federalism from its roots in the political philosophies of the Federalist Papers to its contemporary interpretations and applications. The study found gaps in the literature, providing opportunities for further exploration of how the current scholarship has been built upon the different generations of fiscal federalism. This study seeks to contribute to the literature by examining the relationship that federal grants have with local governments' preparation for emergencies through their local fire and emergency medical service staffing. The dissertation constructs a novel dataset covering SAFER grant allocations, local tax rates, and fire and emergency medical service budgets across Virginia's cities and counties from 2016 to 2022. It evaluates the grants' effects on budgetary decisions and staffing levels, utilizing a methodological framework that includes regression analysis, correlation coefficients, and event series analysis. The third chapter focuses on the socio-political and economic determinants affecting the distribution of the SAFER grant funding, revealing that jurisdictions with higher median household incomes receive more funding, contrary to expectations that economically disadvantaged areas are prioritized. This chapter also highlights the disparities in resource allocation and examines the equitable distribution between volunteer and professional fire departments and the relationship of political leanings on fund allocation. The fourth chapter explores the SAFER grants within the principal-agent framework, investigating their impact on local government tax policy and economic stability. It explores whether SAFER grants lead to changes in local tax policies and how they contribute to fiscal stability, especially during crises such as the 2007-2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The fifth chapter assesses the SAFER grants' effectiveness in increasing the number of full-time equivalent (FTE) employees and improving public safety. It scrutinizes whether these grants supplement or supplant local budgets and their broader implications for budget allocations and incident reduction, which tie closely with the federal government's national preparedness goals. This dissertation advances emergency management scholarship by offering new insights into the allocation of SAFER grants in Virginia and its impact. It provides a multifaceted understanding of how federal funding influences local emergency services, fiscal policies, and community welfare, contributing valuable knowledge for policymakers, grant administrators, and scholars interested in enhancing public safety and preparedness. / Doctor of Philosophy / The Staffing for Adequate Fire and Emergency Responders (SAFER) Grant Program: An Analysis of Fiscal Federalism and How Local Governments Utilize SAFER Grant Funding. Thomas J. Layou GENERAL AUDIENCE ABSTRACT This dissertation investigates how federal money, specifically the SAFER grants aimed at improving fire and emergency services, impacts local communities in Virginia. The SAFER grants are designed to provide a financial boost to a community's fire department in hiring more firefighters. This study goes beyond hiring to determine who receives the grant money and why. It examines if richer areas are more likely to receive funds than poorer ones. The study also considers whether a community's size or the number of emergencies they handle influences the amount of funding they receive. By analyzing the data from Virginia, this study sheds light on the process behind these grants. It finds that wealthier areas often receive more funding, supporting prior research and challenging the idea that such grants primarily benefit economically disadvantaged regions. Additionally, the study examines whether there exists a fair balance in funding between volunteer-based and professional fire departments and how politics may play a role in who receives more or less funding. Furthermore, this dissertation explores the ripple effects of the SAFER grants. It assesses whether these grants encourage local governments to adjust their spending and tax policies. The findings suggest that receiving a SAFER grant does not necessarily lead local governments to increase taxes or decreases spending in other areas. Instead, these governments appear to use these funds strategically to enhance public safety without overburdening local taxpayers. Ultimately, this dissertation not only provides valuable insights into the allocation and impact of the SAFER grants but also raises important questions about equity, fairness, efficiency, and the role of government at all levels in ensuring public safety.

This dissertation consists of three essays in theoretical and applied microeconomics: the first essay is in cooperative game theory, and the second and third essays relate to forest economics. The first chapter studies a class of cooperative games dubbed ``r-essential games''. Cooperative game theory has proposed different notions of powerful players. For example, big-boss games (Muto et al., 1988) and clan games (Potters et al., 1989) are particular cases of veto games (Bahel, 2016). The first chapter extends these veto games by assuming that there is a given subset of powerful (or essential) players, but only a few (as opposed to all) essential players are required for a coalition to have a positive value. The resulting games, which are called r-essential games, encompass convex games (Shapley, 1971) and veto games. We show that r-essential games have a nonempty core. We give a recursive description of the core. Moreover, it is shown that the core and the bargaining set are equivalent for every r-essential game. An application to networks is provided. The second chapter employs a two-principal, one-agent model to estimate the social cost of fiscal federalism in China's northeast native forests. China's key forested region is located in the northeast and consists of state forest enterprises which manage forest harvesting and reforestation. Deforestation is a major problem there and has resulted in several central government reforms. We develop a framework for assessing the social cost of state forest enterprise deforestation. We first develop a two-principal, one-agent model that fits the federalistic organization of state forests, in that state forest managers make (potentially hidden) decisions under influence of provincial and central government policies. This model is used to quantify the social cost of these hidden actions. We then use panel data from a survey conducted by Peking University to compute social welfare losses and to formally identify the main factors in these costs. A sensitivity analysis shows that, interestingly, command and control through lower harvesting limits and a more accurate monitoring system are more important to lowering social welfare losses than conventional incentives targeting the wages of forest managers. Through regression analysis we also find that the more remote areas with a higher percentage of mature natural forests are the ones that will always have the highest social welfare losses. The third chapter studies the problem of choosing a rotation under uncertain future ecosystem values and timber prices. This problem is nearly as old as the field of forest economics itself. A forest owner faces various uncertainties caused by climate change and market shocks, due to its long-term nature of production and the joint production of interrelated timber and amenity (non-harvesting) benefit streams. The vast literature in stochastic rotation problems simply assumes a known probability distribution for whatever parameter is uncertain, but this type of assumption may lead to misspecification of a rotation decision model if a forest owner has no such information. We study a more relevant question of how to choose rotation ages when there is pure (or Knightian) uncertainty, in that the forest owner does not know distributional features of parameters and further can be averse to this type of information deficit. This chapter is the first to investigate pure uncertainty in amenity benefit streams and is also the first to analytically solve a stochastic rotation problem under pure uncertainty in either amenity streams or market prices. We use robust methods developed in macroeconomics that are particularly suited to forest capital investment problem, but with important differences owing to the nature of forest goods production. The results show that newer models suggesting rotation ages could be longer under volatile parameter distributions do not hold generally when pure uncertainty and forest owner uncertainty aversion is considered. Rather, the earlier literature showing faster or greater harvesting with increases in risk under risk neutrality may actually be a more general result than current literature supposes. In particular, we find that a landowner tends to harvest more when his degree of uncertainty aversion is higher and the model is misspecified by assumption, or when the volatility of an uncertain process is higher. These situations tend to magnify model misspecification costs, especially because the forest manager always assumes the worst case will happen when there is uncertainty. This implies the decision maker is pessimistic in the sense that he or she is always trying to maximize the utility under the worst possible state of nature (the lowest amenity benefit or the lowest timber price). Whether landowners are in fact uncertainty averse and assume the worst case in their decisions remains to be empirically investigated, but our work suggests it is an important question that must be answered. / Doctor of Philosophy / This dissertation consists of three essays in theoretical and applied microeconomics: the first essay is in cooperative game theory, and the second and third essays relate to forest economics. The first chapter studies a class of cooperative games dubbed ``r-essential games''. Cooperative game theory has proposed different notions of powerful players. For example, veto games (Bahel, 2016) have powerful players that are named veto players. Any coalition needs to include all these powerful players to achieve a positive coalition value. The first chapter extends these veto games by assuming that there is a given subset of powerful (or essential) players, but only a few (as opposed to all) essential players are required for a coalition to have a positive value. The resulting games, which are called r-essential games, encompass two classic games, convex games (Shapley, 1971) and veto games. We show that each r-essential game has at least one solution that is an allocation guaranteeing that no coalition can do better on its own. We provide a process allowing to compute this allocation in each r-essential game. An application to networks is provided. The second chapter estimates the damage of deforestation in China's northeast forests. This region consists of state forest enterprises which manage harvesting and reforestation and have represented the most important source of wood supplies since the 1950s. Deforestation is a major problem there. We develop a framework for assessing the damage to the society because of deforestation. We develop a theoretical model to describe the forest management structure, in which state forest managers make (potentially hidden) decisions under influence of provincial and central government policies. This model is used to quantify the damage. We then use data from a survey conducted by Peking University to compute the damage and confirm the main factors in these damages in practice. We find that lower harvesting limits and a more accurate monitoring system are the keys to lowering the damage. These are more important than conventional instruments used by the governments such as the wages for managers that achieve certain targets. We also find that the remote areas with a higher percentage of mature natural forests are the ones that will always have the largest damage. These areas are the hardest to monitor, but our results show they must be a critical focus moving forward. The third chapter studies when should a forest owner harvest under uncertain future ecosystem values and timber prices. A forest owner faces various uncertainties caused by climate change and market shocks, due to its long-term nature of production and the joint production of interrelated timber and non-harvesting benefit streams (such as the recreation value, the biodiversity value and the clean air supported by forests). Previous studies assume a known probability distribution for whatever parameter is uncertain, but this type of assumption may lead to a wrong decision model if a forest owner has no such information. We study a more relevant question of how to choose when to harvest with pure uncertainty, in that the forest owner does not know distributional features of parameters and further can be averse to this type of information deficit. This chapter is the first to investigate pure uncertainty and is also the first to analytically solve a harvest decision making problem under pure uncertainty in either non-harvesting benefit streams or market prices. We use macroeconomics methods that are particularly suited to forest capital investment problem. We find that a landowner tends to harvest more when there is pure uncertainty. Because the forest manager is pessimistic and always thinks the worst case will happen when there is uncertainty.

O presente estudo volta-se à discussão do Federalismo Fiscal na América Latina, em particular nas quatro Federações Brasil, Argentina, México e Venezuela, como instrumento de integração. A proposta de integração desenvolve-se a partir da compreensão do sentido de pobreza, que na região está associado à desigualdade, inserido sobretudo a partir de uma primeira integração digamos, quando houve um encontro entre as civilizações pré-hispânicas e europeia, notadamente Espanha e Portugal, em decorrência da qual se enraízam a pobreza e a exclusão social na sociedade dela resultante. No entanto, passados cinco séculos, entende-se que a integração da América Latina poderá encontrar em oportunidades de participação da sociedade no debate político, e portanto, na inclusão social, uma outra realidade em que a pobreza possa ser reduzida ou extinta. Para tanto, o estudo ora apresentado utiliza da teoria sobre uma ética de participação e distribuição, construída nas democracias latino-americanas. Esse sentido de construção de relações sociais vincula-se à necessidade também de serem estruturadas relações sociais condizentes com a solidariedade social, estabelecendo-se na região instituições próprias que assegurem a redução das desigualdades sociais e que possam revelar um novo e autêntico modelo de integração. As normas jurídicas presentes no Federalismo Fiscal nas quatro Federações mencionadas são valioso instrumento do fortalecimento de um institucionalismo próprio ao ensejo de desenvolvimento regional, com inclusão social em que a conservação do meio ambiente reflete a preocupação com o ser humano. Enfim, a proposta de integração regional está expressa na distribuição e aplicação de receitas arrecadas por meio da tributação ambiental, enlaçando o Federalismo Fiscal próprio e comum às Federações latino-americanas. / This paper then turns to a discussion of Fiscal Federalism in Latin America, particularly in the four Federations Brazil, Argentina, Mexico and Venezuela, as an instrument of integration. The proposed integration is developed from the understanding of the meaning of poverty in the region that is associated with inequality , especially inserted from a first integration say, when there was a meeting between the pre - Hispanic and European civilizations , notably Spain and Portugal , as a result of which are rooted poverty and social exclusion resulting in her society. However, after five centuries, it is understood that the integration of Latin America can find opportunities in a society participation in political debate, and therefore, social inclusion, another reality in which poverty can be reduced or extinguished. Thus, the study presented here uses the theory of an ethic of participation and distribution , built in Latin American democracies. This sense of building social relationships linked to the need also to be structured social solidarity, settling in the region institutions that ensure the reduction of social inequalities and that may prove a new and authentic integration model . Legal norms present in Fiscal Federalism in the four Federations mentioned are valuable instrument of strengthening a institutionalism itself and the opportunity for regional development with social inclusion in the conservation of the environment, which reflects a concern with the human being. Finally, the proposed regional integration is expressed in the distribution and application of revenues collected through environmental taxation, linking the Fiscal Federalism itself and common to Latin American Federations.

Esta dissertação tem por objetivo analisar criticamente a governança das receitas públicas de recursos naturais não renováveis no Brasil. Considerando a característica essencial de finitude dos recursos naturais explorados, que importa também em negar às gerações pósteras o acesso aos bens minerais e petrolíferos, impõe-se reconhecer nos diversos aspectos dessa governança a necessidade de tratar essa receita de forma singular. Para compreender quais são estas especificidades, foram eleitos dois eixos de análise: o primeiro, com a revisão da literatura sobre a maldição dos recursos naturais, a doença holandesa, e fenômenos (especialmente econômicos) relacionados à exploração mineral; e o segundo, com consulta à doutrina de diversos ramos (no Direito e fora dele) sobre a noção de justiça, solidariedade ou equidade entre gerações, bem como com a busca de especificação do conteúdo desta perspectiva, que se aplica a diversas áreas do Direito, inclusive e especialmente ao Direito Financeiro. Com essas bases, elegem-se aspectos da governança brasileira de royalties a serem analisados: o federalismo fiscal dessas receitas públicas patrimoniais; a forma de tratamento financeiro-orçamentário dos royalties, especialmente sua classificação consoante a Lei nº 4.320/1964; a utilização de Fundos para gestão dessas receitas (o Fundo Social); a relação entre a arrecadação de royalties e a arrecadação tributária, especialmente nos entes subnacionais beneficiados em grande monta com essas receitas patrimoniais; os modos de direcionamento e coação que a lei impõe ao gestor no gasto dos royalties; a transparência fiscal brasileira; e, de forma ampla, as recentes alterações (efetivadas e propostas) nas leis que regem as explorações de minérios e de petróleo no país. Conclui-se que, apesar de o ordenamento jurídico brasileiro ter avançado significativamente em alguns desses aspectos recentemente (especialmente com a criação do Fundo Social no âmbito da União, e no que diz respeito à transparência fiscal relacionada à atividade exploratória), ele não está, sob as perspectivas de análise escolhidas, adequadamente aparelhado para a governança das receitas públicas de recursos naturais não renováveis. / This dissertation aims to critically analyze the Brazilian governance of public revenues from nonrenewable natural resources. Considering that finiteness is an essential characteristic of natural resources that are exploited, which implies in denying future generations the access to mineral and oil assets, one must acknowledge, in various aspects of governance, the necessity to treat these revenues singularly. To understand what these specificities are, two axes of analysis were elected: the first envolves revisiting the curse of natural resources, the Dutch disease, and phenomena (especially those of economic nature) related to the mineral exploitation; and the second involves consulting doctrine of different areas of study (in and out of Law) about notions of justice, solidarity or equity between generations, as well as searching for specification of this content, which applies to various areas of Law, including and especially Public Finance Law. Building on these foundations, some aspects of Brazilian governance of royalties were elected to be analyzed: fiscal federalism applied to these public revenues; the financial-budgetary treatment of royalties, especially its classification under Law nº 4.320/1964; the utilization of Funds to manage these revenues (the Social Fund); the relationship between the collection of royalties and the collection of taxes, especially in subnational governmental entities largely benefited by these revenues; the ways the law directs and coerces the expenditure of royalties; Brazilian fiscal transparency; and, broadly, the recent modifications (finished and proposed) in the laws that conduct the exploitation of minerals and oil in the country. It is concluded that, although the Brazilian legal system has advanced significantly in some aspects as of late (especially the creation of the Social Fund by the central government, and in respects to fiscal transparency related to the exploratory activities), it is not, under the elected perspectives of analysis, adequately prepared to regulate the governance of public revenues originating from exploration of nonrenewable natural resources.

Esta dissertação tem por objetivo analisar criticamente a governança das receitas públicas de recursos naturais não renováveis no Brasil. Considerando a característica essencial de finitude dos recursos naturais explorados, que importa também em negar às gerações pósteras o acesso aos bens minerais e petrolíferos, impõe-se reconhecer nos diversos aspectos dessa governança a necessidade de tratar essa receita de forma singular. Para compreender quais são estas especificidades, foram eleitos dois eixos de análise: o primeiro, com a revisão da literatura sobre a maldição dos recursos naturais, a doença holandesa, e fenômenos (especialmente econômicos) relacionados à exploração mineral; e o segundo, com consulta à doutrina de diversos ramos (no Direito e fora dele) sobre a noção de justiça, solidariedade ou equidade entre gerações, bem como com a busca de especificação do conteúdo desta perspectiva, que se aplica a diversas áreas do Direito, inclusive e especialmente ao Direito Financeiro. Com essas bases, elegem-se aspectos da governança brasileira de royalties a serem analisados: o federalismo fiscal dessas receitas públicas patrimoniais; a forma de tratamento financeiro-orçamentário dos royalties, especialmente sua classificação consoante a Lei nº 4.320/1964; a utilização de Fundos para gestão dessas receitas (o Fundo Social); a relação entre a arrecadação de royalties e a arrecadação tributária, especialmente nos entes subnacionais beneficiados em grande monta com essas receitas patrimoniais; os modos de direcionamento e coação que a lei impõe ao gestor no gasto dos royalties; a transparência fiscal brasileira; e, de forma ampla, as recentes alterações (efetivadas e propostas) nas leis que regem as explorações de minérios e de petróleo no país. Conclui-se que, apesar de o ordenamento jurídico brasileiro ter avançado significativamente em alguns desses aspectos recentemente (especialmente com a criação do Fundo Social no âmbito da União, e no que diz respeito à transparência fiscal relacionada à atividade exploratória), ele não está, sob as perspectivas de análise escolhidas, adequadamente aparelhado para a governança das receitas públicas de recursos naturais não renováveis. / This dissertation aims to critically analyze the Brazilian governance of public revenues from nonrenewable natural resources. Considering that finiteness is an essential characteristic of natural resources that are exploited, which implies in denying future generations the access to mineral and oil assets, one must acknowledge, in various aspects of governance, the necessity to treat these revenues singularly. To understand what these specificities are, two axes of analysis were elected: the first envolves revisiting the curse of natural resources, the Dutch disease, and phenomena (especially those of economic nature) related to the mineral exploitation; and the second involves consulting doctrine of different areas of study (in and out of Law) about notions of justice, solidarity or equity between generations, as well as searching for specification of this content, which applies to various areas of Law, including and especially Public Finance Law. Building on these foundations, some aspects of Brazilian governance of royalties were elected to be analyzed: fiscal federalism applied to these public revenues; the financial-budgetary treatment of royalties, especially its classification under Law nº 4.320/1964; the utilization of Funds to manage these revenues (the Social Fund); the relationship between the collection of royalties and the collection of taxes, especially in subnational governmental entities largely benefited by these revenues; the ways the law directs and coerces the expenditure of royalties; Brazilian fiscal transparency; and, broadly, the recent modifications (finished and proposed) in the laws that conduct the exploitation of minerals and oil in the country. It is concluded that, although the Brazilian legal system has advanced significantly in some aspects as of late (especially the creation of the Social Fund by the central government, and in respects to fiscal transparency related to the exploratory activities), it is not, under the elected perspectives of analysis, adequately prepared to regulate the governance of public revenues originating from exploration of nonrenewable natural resources.

[pt] Os três ensaios que compõem esta tese, têm como objetivo analisar o funcionamento do federalismo fiscal no Brasil. O primeiro analisa as tendências de longo prazo no grau de centralização e no crescimento do governo e sua relação durante o século XX. O achado mais importante deste ensaio é que os processos de descentralização fiscal promovidos pelas Constituições de 1946 e de 1988 aceleraram o crescimento do governo. Esses processos de descentralização provocaram crises no nível federal, que levaram o governo central a aumentar sua receita tributária para compensar a perda de receitas derivada da descentralização de recursos fiscais. Do outro lado, essa descentralização provocou o crescimento da despesa dos estados e municípios, que não foi compensado pela redução da despesa do governo federal. O segundo ensaio analisa a utilização de transferências intergovernamentais como mecanismo de financiamento dos níveis inferiores de governo. Esse ensaio desenvolve um modelo analítico para explicar o efeito expansivo das transferências sobre a despesa das unidades receptoras, conhecido como flypaper effect, e as diferenças regionais na sua intensidade. Usando um modelo de parámetros variando no espaço, o estudo demonstra empíricamente a presença do flypaper effect nas finanças dos municípios brasileros e suas diferenças regionais. Finalmente, o terceiro estuda os determinantes político institucionais do comportamento fiscal dos estados durante o período 1985-1997. O ensaio mostra a existência de ciclos políticos eleitorais, a influência expansionista da fragmentação do sistema partidário sobre a postura fiscal dos estados, a disciplina fiscal imposta pela da participação política da população e o fato de que que administrações estaduais de esquerda tendem a adotar posturas fiscais mais expansionistas do que as adotadas por administrações estaduais de centro ou de direita. / [en] The three essays in this dissertation analyze fiscal federalism in Brazil. The first studies the long run trends of the fiscal centralization and the size of government and their relationship during the XX Century. The most important finding of the first essay is that the process of decentralization inspired by the 1946 and 1948 Constitutions led to an overall expansion of government activities (at the federal, state, and municipal levels). The increase in state and municipal expenditures - because of the decentralization of fiscal resources - was not matched by an equivalent reduction in federal expenditures. Because federal expenditures did not decrease accordingly, and because the decentralization of fiscal resources resulted in a loss of federal revenues, the federal government needed to increase taxes in order to narrow the deficit. The second essay analyzes the use of intergovernmental transfers to finance lower levels of government. The essay develops an analytical model to explain both the expansive effects of transfers on the expenditures of recipient governments, called the flypaper effect. as well as reasons for their regional differences. Using an space-parameter varying estimation, the study empirically demonstrates the expansive effects of intergovernmental and detects their regional differences in Brazilian local governments finances. Finally, the third essay argues that political cycles strongly influenced the fiscal behavior of Brazilian states between 1985 and 1997. The study confirms the existence of political cycles, the influence of political fragmentation, the fiscal discipline induced by the participation of the population and that left wing administrations tended to adopt more expansionary fiscal policies than center or right wing administrations.

Il contributo si propone – attraverso anche l'individuazione di punti di forza e di debolezza, di opportunità e di sfide (c.d. “SWOT Analysis”) – l'esame di una delle principali Agenzie pubbliche (esecutive) italiane, l' “Agenzia delle Entrate”: l'analisi dell'internazionale processo di c.d. “Agencification”, unitamente alla più sensibile dottrina versata nell'argomento, ne costituisce il presupposto teorico e comparato. La considerazione dell'adattamento al contesto italiano della modellistica internazionale (sub specie esecutiva: “structural disaggregation”; “reregulation”; “performance contracting”) e l'esame degli antecedenti storico-istituzionali e giuridici (interni) si palesano importanti linee di ricerca percorse. Lo specifico approfondimento dei profili storici, funzionali, strutturali e comparati – utilizzando lo strumentario euristico della contemporanea Scienza dell'Amministrazione – della recente esperienza istituzionale “Agenzia delle Entrate” mostra una sensibile, ma ancora parziale (specie sotto il profilo della c.d. “reregulation”), attuazione della ricordata modellistica agenziale esecutiva, ed al contempo evidenzia interessanti ipotesi di sviluppo istituzionale, già avvenute od in corso di manifestazione, per un passaggio – nella gestione del fenomeno tributario italiano – da un sistema a “Government” (ovvero verticistico e centralistico-ministeriale) ad un modello a “Governance” (cioè partecipato e qualificato dal principio di “sussidiarietà” istituzionale, verticale ed orizzontale), prima monolivello e stellare (la situazione attuale) e, quindi, multilivello e plurinodale (con l'avvento del c.d. “federalismo fiscale”). / The paper proposes - through the identification of strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats (so-called “SWOT Analysis”) – the examination of one of the major public (executive) Italian Agencies, the “Agenzia delle Entrate”: the analysis of international process so-called “Agencification”, together with the more sensitive doctrine well-versed in the argument, constitutes the theoretical and compared assumption. The adaptation to the Italian context of international modelling (sub executive specie: “structural disaggregation”, “reregulation” and “performance contracting”) and the exam of the historical-institutional and legal antecedents reveal important covered lines of search. The specific deepening of historical, functional, structural and comparative profiles - using the heuristic tools of contemporary “Science of Administration” – of the recent institutional experience “Agenzia delle Entrate” shows a sensitive, but still partial (especially in terms of s.c. “reregulation”), implementation of the mentioned agencial-executive modeling, and, at the same time, highlights interesting hypothesis of institutional development, already happened or in course of show, toward a transition – managing Italian fiscal phenomenon - from a “Government” system (top - down and centralist - ministerial) to a “Governance” model (participated and qualified by institutional, vertical and horizontal “subsidiarity”), first monolevel and stellar (current situation), therefore, multilevel and networked (with the advent of s.c. “fiscal federalism”).

The UK, traditionally one of the more fiscally centralised of OECD countries, is currently in the midst of an extensive programme of tax decentralisation. This is most evident in Scotland. Ten years ago the Scottish Government was almost wholly reliant on a block grant from the UK Government to fund its spending, and debate was focussed on how the determination of this grant should be reformed. Today the Scottish Government has far greater fiscal autonomy. Income tax was almost fully devolved to the Scottish Parliament in April 2017, and around half of VAT revenues will be assigned to Scotland by 2020. As a result, the devolved Scottish budget will in future be linked much more closely to Scotland’s economy, and Scottish politicians will be able to deviate from UK policy on the setting of income tax and various smaller taxes. The objective of this PhD is to examine the economic and political motivations for and implications of greater fiscal decentralisation, with a particular focus on the Scottish case. Its key over-arching questions include: • Which fiscal powers are more and less suitable for decentralisation, and what might constraints might a devolved government face in exercising devolved tax powers? • To what extent are the objectives of fiscal decentralisation compatible with the goal of inter-regional equity in public good provision? • To what extent is fiscal decentralisation likely to enhance the incentives faced by politicians in a devolved parliament to pursue particular types of policy? And to what extent does the answer to this question depend upon the way in which supporting fiscal institutions, notably including the design of block grant arrangements, influence this? • What factors determine regional economic performance, and to what extent can devolved governments be held accountable for (or face the budgetary consequences of) those trends? • To what extent might fiscal decentralisation assuage or accentuate demands for Scottish independence? This PhD consists of four academic papers covering aspects of regional economics and constitutional change in the UK, with a particular focus on Scotland. Each of the four papers is preceded by an abstract. An introductory chapter provides theoretical and policy context within which the four papers are situated. A concluding section to the PhD is provided in Chapter 6. The four papers cover the following topics: • Paper 1 (Chapter 2) was published in the immediate aftermath of the Scottish independence referendum of 2014, and considers the issues and constraints involved in devolving further fiscal powers to the Scottish Parliament. • Paper 2 (Chapter 3) considers the scope for replacing the Barnett Formula (used to allocate funding to the Scottish Government) with a form of spending-needs assessment, based on a comparative analysis of formulae used within England and Scotland to allocate health funding to territorial health boards. • Paper 3 (Chapter 4) examines how regional labour markets in the UK responded to the 2008/9 recession and its aftermath, and considers which factors may have influenced regional resilience to the recession. • Paper 4 (Chapter 5) examines the factors that determine differential growth in regional income tax revenues, and considers the extent to which it is reasonable to hold devolved governments wholly to account for differential economic performance. • Chapter 6 concludes.

Submitted by Gustavo Gomes (gustavolascasas@gmail.com) on 2013-09-25T12:43:11Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Ensaios em finan??as p??blicas municipais.pdf: 875614 bytes, checksum: dc145cd22b82eaa33bc4cda649abe175 (MD5) license_rdf: 23599 bytes, checksum: 9e2b7f6edbd693264102b96ece20428a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Roger Guedes (roger.guedes@fjp.mg.gov.br) on 2013-09-27T00:07:13Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Ensaios em finan??as p??blicas municipais.pdf: 875614 bytes, checksum: dc145cd22b82eaa33bc4cda649abe175 (MD5) license_rdf: 23599 bytes, checksum: 9e2b7f6edbd693264102b96ece20428a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-09-27T00:07:13Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Ensaios em finan??as p??blicas municipais.pdf: 875614 bytes, checksum: dc145cd22b82eaa33bc4cda649abe175 (MD5) license_rdf: 23599 bytes, checksum: 9e2b7f6edbd693264102b96ece20428a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009 / Funda????o Jo??o Pinheiro / Esta tese busca discutir problemas relacionados ??s finan??as p??blicas municipais no pa??s. Um aprimoramento de nosso federalismo fiscal, com maior descentraliza????o de recursos e implementa????o de regras de transfer??ncias federativas com maiores incentivos pr??-efici??ncia ??? aumentando os incentivos pr??-obten????o de melhores resultados sociais por parte das unidades subfederadas ??? pode se revelar instrumento importante na melhoria de nossas condi????es sociais. Para isto, dividiu-se esta tese em quatro partes distintas. No primeiro cap??tulo, discutem-se os impactos das receitas petrol??feras sobre as finan??as p??blicas municipais. As mudan??as legais ocorridas no pa??s na d??cada de noventa do ??ltimo s??culo - relativas ao setor petrol??fero - levaram a crescente (e concentrada) transfer??ncia de recursos do setor para os estados e munic??pios brasileiros. A forte sensa????o que estes estariam sendo desperdi??ados de alguma forma vem suscitando discuss??es sobre a necessidade de se reformular sua distribui????o. As recentes descobertas de megacampos petrol??feros no pr??-sal do litoral brasileiro somente intensificaram este processo. Buscou-se identificar os efeitos destas transfer??ncias sobre as vari??veis fiscais municipais no pa??s. Detectou-se que n??o ocorreu substitui????o tribut??ria, ou seja, estes recursos n??o diminu??ram o esfor??o arrecadat??rio dos munic??pios. Em compensa????o, tanto os recursos cuja distribui????o ?? bem mais concentrada (referentes aos royalties excedentes) quanto aqueles mais bem-distribu??dos (referentes aos royalties originais) levaram as prefeituras a aumentar seus gastos correntes (piorando sua composi????o do ponto de vista social) e diminuir seus investimentos. O contr??rio parece ocorrer com os recursos cuja distribui????o se d?? de forma intermedi??ria (os royalties referentes ??s participa????es especiais. No segundo cap??tulo, discute-se o impacto das receitas petrol??feras sobre a profici??ncia dos alunos at?? a quarta s??rie prim??ria das escolas p??blicas municipais. As receitas petrol??feras ??? agregadas ou n??o ??? n??o se mostraram estatisticamente significativas na explica????o do desempenho observado pelos alunos da quarta s??rie prim??ria das escolas municipais em portugu??s ou matem??tica. Este resultado, entretanto, deve ser olhado com cautela, uma vez que n??o ?? trivial identificar como (e o tempo necess??rio) estes efeitos seriam gerados. Entretanto, diferentes fontes de receitas municipais impactariam de forma diferenciada as profici??ncias observadas nos testes de portugu??s e matem??tica, explicitando a necessidade de se entender melhor estas diferen??as para se desenhar mecanismo mais eficiente de repasse de recursos constitucionais aos munic??pios. No terceiro cap??tulo, estudam-se os impactos das emancipa????es municipais ocorridas na d??cada de 90 sobre o bem-estar das popula????es locais. Devido ?? Constitui????o Federal de 1988, o n??mero de munic??pios no Brasil multiplicou-se fortemente na d??cada de 90 do ??ltimo s??culo. Mais de mil munic??pios foram criados em todo o pa??s, fazendo seu n??mero ultrapassar a casa dos 5.500. Este processo tem sido interpretado de forma bastante negativa. Baseado em evid??ncias aned??ticas, se pressup??e que os atores pol??ticos locais o utilizaram para se apropriar de maior parcela dos recursos transferidos de outros n??veis governamentais. Entretanto, nenhum esfor??o mais sistem??tico foi realizado buscando calcular, de maneira efetiva, os resultados sociais l??quidos deste processo. ?? isto que se busca fazer aqui, utilizando dados sobre os munic??pios mineiros - cujo n??mero passa de 723 em 1991 para 853 em 2000. Foram detectados impactos positivos relacionados a diversas vari??veis educacionais e de sa??de. Ao mesmo tempo, o contr??rio ocorreu com os indicadores de pobreza e indig??ncia. Este resultado mostra que o movimento observado de emancipa????o municipal talvez tenha sido bastante ben??fico, sinalizando para a exist??ncia de mercados pol??ticos eficientes nestas localidades, o que indicaria a necessidade de se manter uma maior autonomia local relativa a processos de emancipa????o de distritos. Por fim, no quarto cap??tulo, analisam-se os impactos de lei (implementada em Minas Gerais) que buscou aumentar os incentivos pr??-efici??ncia das prefeituras municipais a partir das transfer??ncias federativas. Buscando melhorar as condi????es de vida dos munic??pios mineiros, o governo estadual mineiro instituiu, em 1995, a lei 12.040, conhecida como Lei Robin Hood. Esta permitia que 25% dos recursos de ICMS a serem distribu??dos aos munic??pios mineiros se dessem sobre resultados observ??veis em diversas ??reas tais como sa??de, educa????o, conserva????o ecol??gica, entre outras. Ou seja, esta institu??a, em rela????o a estas transfer??ncias, um contrato de alto poder com os munic??pios relacionados ??s pol??ticas p??blicas implementadas. O estudo destas transfer??ncias (relativas ?? educa????o e sa??de) mostrou resultados d??bios. Resultados positivos relativos ?? educa????o e ?? sa??de parecem ocorrer em todo o estado, mas os incentivos dados poderiam ser bem maiores - faz-se necess??rio um refinamento das regras da partilha destas transfer??ncias. Dada a relativa escassez deste tipo de contrato em transfer??ncias federativas, seja no Brasil, seja no restante do mundo, este resultado aponta a necessidade de utiliza????o de instrumentos de maior poder nas rela????es federativas, buscando incrementar as condi????es de vida locais. / This thesis aims to discuss municipal public finance issues. An improvement of the Brazilian fiscal federalism, with greater resources decentralization and the implementation of high-powered rules for the federative transfers may be an important tool in the improvement of our social conditions. To do so, this thesis was divided into four distinct parts. The first chapter discusses the oil revenues impacts on municipalities??? public finance. The legal changes that occurred in Brazil in the nineties in the oil and gas sector led to increasing royalties transfers to Brazilians states and municipalities. The annedoctical evidence that this transfers are not been used properly - in a way that would increment the local welfare - have originated a important discussion about these distribution rules. This paper tries to identify this revenues impacts over others municipalities??? fiscal variables. It seems that this did not impact the others sources of municipalities revenue. Unhappily, some of the resources (which distribution is either more or less concentrated) led the municipalities to increase their current expenditures and diminishes their investments efforts. At the same time, they are not spending this extra money in a way that would increment the local welfare. On the other hand, the resources which distribution is between these two limits has the opposite effect. The second chapter discusses the impact of oil revenues on the proficiency of fourth grade students of primary public schools. The oil revenues - bundled or not - were not statistically significant in explaining the observed student performance in Portuguese and mathematics. This result, however, must be analyzed with caution, since it is not trivial to identify how (and when) these effects would be generated. However, different sources of municipal revenue would impact differently the students??? proficiency scores, explaining why we need to better understand these differences to design more efficient constitutional transfer mechanisms to the municipalities. In the third chapter, we study the impacts of municipal emancipation occurred in the 90s on the well-being of local populations. More than a thousand of new municipalities were created at the nineties in Brazil, due the new Federal Constitution of 1988. There is anecdotic evidence that this was a pretty harmful process for the Brazilian welfare, but there were no systematic attempt to valuate it properly. This paper tries to do so using data from Minas Gerais municipalities which number has grown from 723 to 853 ones in that decade. The results suggest that this process strongly improved the welfare of the local population. This implies that local political markets are efficient and it should be allowed for any district to emancipate from its former municipalities, if their population wishes to do so. Finally, in the fourth chapter we analyze the impact of law (implemented in Minas Gerais) who sought to increase the incentives pro-efficiency of municipal governments. In order to improve the welfare of its citizens, the state government of Minas Gerais (Brazil) has imposed, at 1995, the state law 12.040, known as Robin Hood law. It stated that 25% of the revenue transferred to the municipalities should be allocated through observable results achieved in education, health, environment among others. In other words, this law established a high power contract between the state government and the municipalities, which is not very usual. This study shows that this law had a significant impact on the municipalities??? education and health. But it???s necessary to redesign these transfers??? rules, in order to improve its power and its results. These results shows that the use of high powered rules in federative transfers could be a strong mechanism in order to improve the population welfare. / Economia e Finan??as

Submitted by Afonso Yamaguchi (afonsomy@gmail.com) on 2014-08-31T19:40:49Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Afonso versao de entrega v6.2.pdf: 1877577 bytes, checksum: 1168740dfad490ae750f655794e79702 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by JOANA MARTORINI (joana.martorini@fgv.br) on 2014-09-01T12:26:26Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Afonso versao de entrega v6.2.pdf: 1877577 bytes, checksum: 1168740dfad490ae750f655794e79702 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-09-01T12:41:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Afonso versao de entrega v6.2.pdf: 1877577 bytes, checksum: 1168740dfad490ae750f655794e79702 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-08-11 / O trabalho visa mensurar os efeitos das transferências intergovernamentais sobre as políticas públicas voltadas à educação fundamental. A hipótese que investigamos é a de que as transferências incondicionais aumentam a variabilidade das políticas públicas adotas, enquanto as transferências condicionais diminuem a variabilidade das políticas, já as transferências semi-condicionais afetam as políticas públicas de modo intermediário entre esses extremos. Com base nestes argumentos desenvolvemos estratégicas empíricas baseadas em métodos de regressão em painel, com uso de variáveis instrumentais e de designs descontínuos de regressão. / The study aims to measure the effects of intergovernmental transfers on public policies aimed at primary education. The hypothesis we investigate is that unconditional transfers increase the variability of the public policies, while conditional transfers reduce the variability of policies, since the semi-conditional transfers affecting public policy intermediate way between these extremes. Based on these arguments we develop strategic empirical methods based on panel regression, using instrumental variables and regression discontinuous designs.