Consumption-based environmental impact trends for the Swedish economy have been generated and analysed in order to determine their levels compared to official production-based data, and to determine whether or not the Swedish economy has decoupled growth in domestic final demand from worldwide environmental impact. Three energy resources (oil, coal and gas use, as well as their aggregate fossil fuel use) and seven emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O, SO2, NOx, CO and NMVOC, as well as the aggregate CO2 equivalents) were studied. An augmented single-regional input–output model has been deployed, with world average energy and emission intensities used for products produced abroad. A new method for updating input–output tables for years missing official input–output tables, was also developed. For each of the resources and the emissions, two time series were generated based on two different revisions of Swedish national accounts data, one for the period 1993–2003, the other for the period 2000–2005. The analysis uses a recently revised time series of environmental data from the Swedish environmental accounts, as well as recently published global environmental data from the IEA and from the EDGAR emissions database (all data from 2010 or later). An index decomposition analysis was also performed to detect the various components of the time series. For fossil fuels consumption-based data don't differ much from production-based data in total. For the greenhouse gases there is a clear increase (CO2eq emissions increase approximately 20 % from 1993–2005, mainly driven by an increase in CH4 emissions), resulting from increased emissions abroad due to the increased demand for imported products. This suggests Sweden has not decoupled economic growth from increasing greenhouse gas emissions – contrary to what the slightly decreasing official production-based UNFCCC data say. For the precursor gases (SO2, NOx, CO and NMVOC), emissions are generally decreasing, with the exception of SO2 and NOx which increase in the second time series. For all emissions studied, consumption-based data lie at much higher levels than the official production-based UNFCCC data. However, further research is needed regarding the resolution of the data of the energy use and the emissions generated abroad by the Swedish domestic final demand. Also, extension of the time series and of the environmental parameters to such things as material use is needed to find out with more certainty to what extent Swedish growth has been sustainable or not. / I den här studien har konsumtionsbaserade tidsserier på svensk fossilbränsleanvändning och på svenska utsläpp av luftföroreningar tagits fram i avsikt att jämföra dessa med de officiella produktionsbaserade tidsserierna. Syftet har varit att avgöra om det svenska samhällets påverkan på resurser och miljö ur ett konsumtionsperspektiv har minskat eller ökat över tiden, och framförallt om en frikoppling har skett mellan den svenska ekonomiska tillväxten och den påverkan Sverige har på miljön i Sverige och utomlands. Tre fossila bränslen (olja, kol, gas samt aggregatet fossila bränslen) och sju luftföroreningar (CO2, CH4, N2O, SO2, NOx, CO och NMVOC samt aggregatet CO2-ekvivalenter) har analyserats. En enkelregional input–output-modell har tagits fram, utökad med globala medelintensiteter för den produktion som sker utanför Sverige. En ny metod har också utvecklats för att generera input–output-tabeller för år där officiella sådana tabeller saknas. För samtliga energiresurser och luftföroreningar, upprättades två stycken tidsserier, baserat på två olika revisioner av ekonomiska data från nationalräkenskaperna. Den första tidsserien täcker åren 1993–2003, och den andra åren 2000–2005. Miljödata togs från nyligen reviderade tidsserier från de svenska miljöräkenskaperna samt från IEA och den internationella luftföroreningsdatabasen EDGAR (alla data reviderade 2010 eller senare). En komponentanalys utfördes också, för att identifiera olika bidragande komponenter i tidsserierna. Vad gäller fossila bränslen i sin helhet, uppstår ingen markant skillnad mellan konsumtionsbaserade och produktionsbaserade data. Vad gäller växthusgaserna kan en klar ökning urskiljas (20 procents ökning av CO2-ekvivalenter mellan 1993–2005; CH4-utsläppen har där bidragit mest), vilket beror på stigande utsläpp utomlands orsakade av ökad efterfrågan på importerade produkter. Detta antyder att den svenska tillväxten ännu inte frikopplats från ökade utsläpp av växthusgaser, vilket står i motsats till den minskning i utsläpp som de officiella produktionsbaserade siffrorna från UNFCCC-rapporteringen redovisar. För övriga luftföroreningar (SO2, NOx, CO och NMVOC), sker i allmänhet en minskning, förutom för SO2 och NOx som ökar i den andra tidsserien. Samtliga luftföroreningar ligger vidare på en betydligt högre nivå jämfört med UNFCCC-rapporteringen. Mer detaljerade studier behövs dock på den energiförbrukning och de utsläpp som svensk slutlig användning för med sig utomlands. Tidsserierna behöver också förlängas och fler miljövariabler som t.ex. materialanvändningen behöver studeras för att kunna dra säkrare slutsatser kring i vilken utsträckning som den svenska tillväxten har varit hållbar eller ej.

En 2015, lors de la COP21, à l’occasion de l’accord global sur le climat de Paris, l’Afrique s’est engagée sous le Leadership du Groupe de la Banque Africaine de Développement (BAD) et de ses autres Partenaires Techniques et Financiers, à installer à l’horizon 2030 une capacité de 300 GW d’énergies renouvelables. Cet ambitieux objectif de l’Initiative Africaine pour les Energies Renouvelables (AREI) dont la BAD est agence d’exécution, vient compléter son engagement sur la décennie 2005- 2015, qui a permis de faire passer la part des énergies renouvelables de 4% à 20% de son portefeuille. Et pourtant, l’Afrique reste le continent qui, malgré son fort potentiel en énergies renouvelables (solaire :10 TW ; hydroélectrique : 350 GW ; éolien :110 GW, et géothermie : 15 GW), a 2/3 de sa population (645 millions) sans accès aux sources modernes d’énergie (BAD, 2016).C’est dans ce contexte d’urgence d’une part et de besoin de solutions durables d’autre part que notre thèse, en s’appuyant sur des projets structurants d’énergie renouvelables instruits et suivis sur la période 2010-2015 comme Economiste Principal de l’Energie au sein de la BAD, a consisté à analyser comment la BAD, en tant que première Institution Africaine de financement du développement couvrant les 54 pays africains, peut-elle mieux appuyer l’Afrique à faire face aux défis de l’économie post-pétrole grâce à une promotion plus efficace des énergies renouvelables. Cette analyse, normative, nous a permis d’aboutir à une double série de recommandations à la fois internes et externes à la BAD, dans la perspective d’une amélioration de l’efficacité de l’aide publique au développement drainée par cette Institution. / In 2015, during the COP 21, on the occasion of the global climate agreement in Paris, Africa committed under the Leadership of the African Development Bank Group (AfDB) and its other technical and financial partners, to install a capacity of 300 GW of renewable energy by 2030. This ambitious target set in the framework of the African Renewable Energy Initiative (AREI) for which AfDB is the executing agency, completes its commitment of the decade 2005-2015, which permitted it to increase the share of renewable energy from 4% to 20% of its energy portfolio. Yet, Africa remains the continent which, despite its strong renewable energy potential (10 TW of solar, 350 GW hydroelectric, 110 GW wind and 15 GW of geothermal potential), is paradoxically characterized by two third of its population (645 millions) without access to modern energy sources (AfDB, 2016). It is in this context of energy emergency in one hand and the need for sustainable energy solutions on the other hand, that our thesis, based on renewable energy projects designed or implemented as Principal Energy Economist within the AfDB over the period 2010-2015, analyzes how AfDB, as the first African Development Financing Institution covering the 54 African countries, can assist this continent to better meet the challenges of the post-oil economy, through a more effective development of renewable energy. This analysis, essentially normative, allows us to achieve a double set of recommendations both internal and external to the AfDB in the perspective of enhanced effectiveness of Official Development Aid channeled by this institution, from the specific angle of the promotion of renewable energy.

In the literature, some studies argue that affluence and the financial sector encourages low-carbon investments which result in lower emissions while others find that they enhance emissions. Contemporary studies barely consider agriculture, employment generation and the degree of financial development as determinants of emissions. In view of these, the thesis investigates the impact of economic and financial development on CO2 emissions in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Applying the EKC and STIRPAT framework, the study modelled three functional forms which were estimated using an unbalanced panel data of 45 SSA countries by employing static and dynamic analytical methods. The models were re-estimated for 24 low (LIC), 13 lower-middle (LMIC), six upper-middle (UMIC) and two high-income countries (HIC). The study found evidence that empirical results differ in terms of the (sub-) sample of countries, estimation methods and functional forms. In detail, the study found different CO2 emissions-economic development relationships for the income groups. However, there is evidence of a linkage between later developments of the economies with lower emissions in LIC and UMIC while this linkage does not exist in LMIC and HIC. The study also found that financial development lowers CO2 in UMIC while it enhances emissions in LIC, LMIC and HIC. Despite this, there is evidence of a linkage between later developments of financial sectors with higher emissions in LIC and HIC and a linkage between later developments of financial sectors with lower CO2 in UMIC in SSA meanwhile no linkage was found for LMIC. The study concludes that not all economic development increases the level of CO2 emissions and not all financial development limits CO2 emissions in SSA during the study period. Generally, the main contributory variables to CO2 emissions are income, trade openness, energy consumption, population density and domestic credit to private sector to GDP. The main reducing factors of CO2 emissions are agriculture and official exchange rate. The thesis recommends that SSA needs to be more responsive to a cleaner CO2 environment by moving away from the conduct of unclean development strategy to intensified green investments. / Economics / D. Phil. (Economics)