Dans cette thèse sur travaux, l’auteur part de deux travaux précédents sur la rentabilité de la fidélisation et la détermination du potentiel client pour faire un constat : une partie de la rentabilité de la fidélisation et du potentiel pour une marque est basée sur la part captable du chiffre d’affaire fait à la concurrence ; le taux de captation.Dans ce nouveau travail il s’agit de montrer que le taux de captation est basé sur l’élasticité du taux de nourriture. A partir d’une analyse de la littérature et de plusieurs modélisations sur des données de panel scannérisées, l’auteur démontre, sur plusieurs marchés, que l’élasticité du taux de nourriture est contrainte et prévisible.C’est donc en tenant compte de cet écart limité qu’une marque peut estimer le taux de captation et donc la rentabilité de la fidélisation ainsi que le potentiel client. / In this thesis based on works the author goes from two previous studies on the profitability of loyalty and customer potential determination to make a statement : part of the profitability of loyalty and of the potential for a brand is based on the reachable share of turnover done by the competition ; the catch rate.In this new work it is shown that the catch rate is based on the elasticity of the share of category requirement. From a review of the literature and several modeling on scanning panel data the author demonstrates on several markets that elasticity of the share of category requirement is limited and predictable.Then it’s in taking into account this small difference that a brand can estimate the “catchable” rate and therefore the profitability of loyalty and potential of a customer.

Real estate financing is one of the key figures for financial success and fundamental to a successful business. Funding will come in several different ways , from existing cashflows and assets to new capital requirements which are aimed at different markets. These markets are constantly changing and since the recent financial crisis , there have been adjustments and austerity measures which led to that the banks have become more restrictive in their lending. The real estate industry is characterized by both long-term and short-term thinking that is characterized by a solid continuity. Our thesis discuss how the demand is in the real estate business and how mature the Swedish market is for junior financing with focus around mezzanine debt and where are we headed in the near future. We've reached out to the key players in the industry on both the buy and sell side of real estate financing but also people between lenders and borrowers that handles transaction advice . To have been able to implement the analysis a survey and simulation of an investment calculation was created . This questionnaire was answered by many real estate companies with senior people that had operational positions most associated with corporate commitments. These companies are active in growth areas and especially in the Stockholm area of commercial real estate. After conducting the study , we have determined that the Swedish market is mature and ready for junior financing and it tends to be a gap between the smaller and the larger real estate companies in terms of demand for mezzanine debt . / För fastighetsbolag är tillgång till f inansiering en av nyckelfaktorerna för att uppnå en framgångsrik verksamhet. Finansiering sker på flera olika sätt, allt från befintliga kassaflöden och tillgångar till nytt behov av kapital där man vänder sig till olika marknader. Dessa marknader förändras hela tiden och sedan den senaste finanskrisen har det skett regleringar och åtstramningar vilket lett till att banker blivit mer restriktiva i sin utlåning. Fastighetsbranschen präglas av både långsiktighet och kortsiktighet som kännetecknas av en gedigen kontinuitet och vår uppsats behandlar hur efterfrågan ser ut i fastighetsbranschen och hur mogen den svenska marknaden är för juniorfinansiering med fokusering kring mezzaninekapital och om vi därigenom kan dra någon slutsats vart vi är på väg. Vi har lokaliserat de viktigaste aktörerna i branschen på både köp- och säljsidan vid fastighetsfinansiering men också personer mellan långivare och låntagare som sköter transaktionsrådgivning. För att ha kunnat implementera analysen gjordes en enkät och simulering av en investeringskalkyl. Denna enkät besvarades av flertalet fastighetsbolag med högt uppsatta personer med operativa befattningar samt flertalet bolagsengagemang knutna till sig. Dessa bolag är verksamma i tillväxtorter och framförallt i Stockholmsområdet mot kommersiella fastigheter. Efter att ha genomfört studien har vi fastställt att juniorfinansiering är något den svenska marknaden är mogen för och det tenderar till att uppstå en klyfta mellan de mindre och de större fastighetsbolagen när det gäller efterfrågan på mezzaninekapital.

本研究同時探討房貸違約與提前清償終止行為，並對提前清償動機『出售』與『轉貸』予兼容並蓄。蒐集自H銀行房貸資料，運用多項式邏吉斯廻歸模型分析法，以總體經濟因子之有無分兩階段，對應變數-房貸終止行為(Y1)及提前清償動機(Y2)，採取雙層次深入實證。 實證結果：從機率模型配適度與解釋力之實證分析中，獲得一致結論，對於含有總體經濟因子-經濟成長率與CPI 年增率之模型，其所計算Cox & Snell及Nagelkerke之假 值分別為0.534及0.611，均大於0.5以上，其相對性與獨立性上，均具備較高的模型解釋力，為一較優之房貸違約與提前清償終止行為模型，其相關顯著影響因子如下： 一、對違約具有顯著影響之因子，包括：借款年限、初貸利率、LTV、保證人、次級房貸、部分提前清償、購屋投資、 PTI、DBR＞22、軍警公教人員、設二胎、區域台北市、區域新北市及CPI年增率等14項。 二、對提前清償具有顯著影響之因子，包括：初貸利率、次級房貸、部分提前清償、購屋投資、購屋自住、年資、設二胎、CPI年增率及經濟成長率等9項。 三、對提前清償動機-『出售』之顯著因子：次級房貸、部分提前清償、購屋投資、設二胎等4項。 四、對提前清償動機-『轉貸』之顯著因子：初貸利率、次級房貸、購屋自住、年資、設二胎、CPI年增率及經濟成長率等7項。。 本實證結果所建構含有總體經濟因子之房貸終止行為機率模型，以其顯著影響因子再深入探討提前清償-『出售』與『轉貸』之動機，使提前清償行為模式更精確性地呈現，有助於提供金融機構，在計算違約機率與提前清償機率之模型架構上及授信審核評估上，具貢獻價值之參考資訊。 / This research explores the default and prepayment on the termination behaviors of residential mortgages, as well as the motives of prepayment in house selling or refinancing. Mortgage data are collected from the H bank in Taiwan, using the multi-nominal logistic regression analytic method to explore the factors affecting the default and prepayment behaviors. Empirical results show that loan period, initial mortgage rate, loan-to-value ratio (LTV), the existence of the guarantor, subprime mortgages, curtailment, investment purpose, payment-to-income (PTI), debt burden ratio exceeded 22 (DBR＞22), government employees or teachers, second lien, location in Taipei city, the new Taipei city and CPI annual rate of increase are the significant factors of default behavior. As for the variables on prepayment, the initial mortgage rate, subprime mortgages, curtailment, investment purpose, residential use, DBR＞22, the age of professional career, second lien, CPI annual rate of increase and economical growth rate are significant. For more detailed curtailment behavior, the empirical results show that house sale subprime mortgages, curtailment, residential investment purpose, second lien are significant factors. As for the variables in inter-bank refinancing initial interest rate, subprime mortgages, residential investment purpose, the age of professional career, second lien, CPI annual rate of increase and economical growth rate are significant factors. Results of this research may provide financial institutions precious references on the mortgage default and prepayment behaviors. The mortgage industry can take into account of the significant results on the capital planning in the future.

Dans cette thèse sur travaux, l'auteur part de deux travaux précédents sur la rentabilité de la fidélisation et la détermination du potentiel client pour faire un constat : une partie de la rentabilité de la fidélisation et du potentiel pour une marque est basée sur la part captable du chiffre d'affaire fait à la concurrence ; le taux de captation.Dans ce nouveau travail il s'agit de montrer que le taux de captation est basé sur l'élasticité du taux de nourriture. A partir d'une analyse de la littérature et de plusieurs modélisations sur des données de panel scannérisées, l'auteur démontre, sur plusieurs marchés, que l'élasticité du taux de nourriture est contrainte et prévisible.C'est donc en tenant compte de cet écart limité qu'une marque peut estimer le taux de captation et donc la rentabilité de la fidélisation ainsi que le potentiel client.

Every auditory event provides an information-rich signal to the brain. The signal constitutes perceptual attributes of pitch, loudness, timbre, and also, conceptual attributes like location, emotions, meaning, etc. In the present work we examine the timbre perception of time-varying signals in particular. While stationary signal timbre, by-itself is complex perceptually, the time-varying signal timbre introduces an evolving pattern, adding to its multi-dimensionality. To characterize timbre, we conduct psycho-acoustic perception tests with normal-hearing human subjects. We focus on time-varying synthetic speech signals(can be extended to music) because listeners are perceptually consistent with speech. Also, we can parametrically control the timbre and pitch glides using linear time-varying models. In order to quantify the timbre change in time-varying signals, we define the JND(Just noticeable difference) of timbre using diphthongs, synthesized using time-varying formant frequency model. The diphthong JND is defined as a two dimensional contour on the plane of percentage change of formant frequencies of terminal vowels. Thus, we simplify the perceptual probing to a lower dimensional space, i.e, 2-D even for a diphthong, which is multi-parametric. We also study the impact of pitch glide on the timbre JND of the diphthong. It is observed that timbre JND is influenced by the occurrence of pitch glide. Focusing on the magnitude of perceptual timbre change, we design a MUSHRA-like listening test using the vowel continuum in the formant-frequency space. We provide explicit anchors for reference: 0% and 100%, thus quantifying the perceptual timbre change on a 1-D scale. We also propose an objective measure of timbre change and observe that there is good correlation between the objective measure and subjective human responses of percentage timbre change. Using the above experimental methodology, we studied the influence of pitch shift on timbre perception and observed that the perceptual timbre change increases with change in pitch. We used vowels and diphthongs with 5 different types of pitch glides-(i) Constant pitch,(ii) 3-semitone linearly-up,(iii) 3 semitone linearly-down, (iv)V–like pitch glide and (v) hat-like pitch glide. The present study shows that timbre change can be measured on a 1-D scale if the perturbation is along one-dimension. We observe that for bright vowels(/a/and/i/), linearly decreasing pitch glide(dull pitch glide)causes more timbre change than linearly increasing pitch glide(bright pitch glide).For dull vowels(/u/),it is vice-versa. To summarize, in congruent pitch glides cause more perceptual timbre change than congruent pitch glides.(Congruent pitch glide implies bright pitch glide in bright vowel or dull pitch glide in dull vowel and in congruent pitch glide implies bright pitch glide in dull vowel or dull pitch glide in bright vowel.) Experiments with quadratic pitch glides show that the decay portion of pitch glide affects timbre perception more than the attack portion in short duration signals with less or no sustained part. In case of time-varying timbre, bright diphthongs show patterns similar to bright vowels. Also, for bright diphthongs(/ai/), perceived timbre change is most with decreasing pitch glide(dull pitch glide). We also observed that listeners perceive more timbre change in constant pitch than in pitch glides, congruent with the timbre or pitch glides with quadratic changes. The main conclusion of this study is that pitch and timbre do interact and in congruent pitch glides cause more timbre change than congruent pitch glides. In the case of quadratic pitch glides, listener perception of vowels is influenced by the decay than the attack in pitch glide in short duration signals. In the case of time-varying timbre also, in congruent pitch glides cause the most timbre change, followed by constant pitch glide. For congruent pitch glides and quadratic pitch glides in time-varying timbre, the listeners perceive lesser timbre change than otherwise.

房地產市場與銀行放款業務間，因為存在著密不可分之關係，本研究主要目的為釐清貸款利率與貸款成數對住宅價格是否具有顯著影響，進而探討中央銀行之選擇性信用管制政策，對於貸款利率、貸款成數與住宅價格之間，是否具有政策效果，最後再針對不同的需求族群，給予購屋行為選擇之參考或為銀行選擇貸款客群之參考。 本研究透過實證分析發現，貸款成數對於住宅價格為正向顯著影響，但貸款利率對住宅價格，則未呈現顯著影響。而政府之選擇性信用管制措施，在實證結果中，並未達到抑制房價之目的。但是在實施信用管制之後，購屋者對與貸款利率，相對更為敏感。在需求族群的分析上，發現高所得族群相對較重視貸款利率，而中所得與低所得族群，則相對較重視貸款成數。低年齡族群較高年齡族群而言，相對較為重視貸款利率之增加。 對於持續關心貸款利率、成數與住宅價格關聯之研究者，本研究建議後續研究者在資料取得之允許下，可嘗試拉長研究期間，及考慮增加了解政策鬆綁後之影響。在資料完整度許可下，建議可以增加個人屬性變數，並考量都更效應之變數。 / There is an inextricably linkage between the real estate market and the bank lending business. The main purpose of this study is to identify the relationships among mortgage interest rate, loan to value (LTV) ratio, and housing price. Further, we discuss the policy effect among them, due to the central bank's selective credit control policy. Finally, the supply-demand sides, our study hopes to give the choice of purchase behavior on demand groups or the selection of bank on loan-customers In our study, we found that the loan to value ratio has a significant positive effect on the housing price, but the mortgage interest rate has no significant effect on the housing price. In the empirical results, we found that the government's selective credit control policy did not achieve the purpose of curbing housing prices. However, after the implementation of selective credit control policy, the housing-buyer is relatively more sensitive to the mortgage interest rate. In the analysis of demand groups, the study found that high-income groups pay more attention to the mortgage interest rate. However, the middle-income and low-income groups emphasize on loan to value relative to the high-income groups. Finally, the young age groups relatively emphasize on the increase of the mortgage interest rates. For the researchers who continue to care about the relationships among mortgage interest rate, loan to value ratio, and housing price, the study suggests that follow-up researchers, with the permission of the data, may attempt to lengthen the study period and consider increasing the impact of easing the policy. Under the data integrity permission, it is advisable to add personal attribute variables and take into account the variables of the urban renewal effect.