摘 要 　　國內銀行傳統上最擅長及投注最多資源之領域即是企業金融業務，然經驗顯示此處亦為金融業者蒙受最多損失之處，甚至導致中興銀行及高雄企銀退出市場，大型行庫兩、三年前，每年打銷呆帳之金額係以新台幣數十億元、甚至上百億元計。其後消金業務盛行，信用卡循環信用業務之興起尤為引人注目，而現金卡亦在萬泰銀行的「George & Mary」之強勢促銷下製造出另一波高峰。然由於風險控管之鬆散，在卡債呆帳暗潮隱然成型，外資券商開始對現金卡業務暴衝至前幾名之銀行投以質疑的眼光之際，部份銀行也在此刻宣布停掉現金卡之業務。「財富管理」便是在銀行亟思轉向提高以手續費收入為基礎之殷殷期盼下，在國內銀行的業務領域中逐漸萌芽、茁壯。 在短短兩三年間，財富管理業務從在銀行營業廳一隅的小規模經營，到現在引領國人開啟投資理財之風潮，其方興未艾之勢頗值吾人加以探討。其成因包括人口老化問題衍生之退休規劃需求，因經濟活動之暢旺，造成富裕人口及富裕家庭數目之提昇，因微利時代的來臨等，皆實質地催化民眾對於理財之迫切需求，而「財富管理」即順應這種經濟金融環境之變遷，此其時地走入人群，成為眾所矚目之焦點，也成為這一年來銀行短兵相接之處。 　　其次，國際金融法規之變動，尤其是新巴塞爾資本協定(The Basel Capital Accord II)即將在2006年底實施，導致銀行在經營策略上不得不思考導入既能獲利，又屬低度資本需求業務之必要性，更何況銀行本身本應多元化其業務收入來源，以分散業務經營之風險。本文即從這些角度，探討財富管理業務之確具經營價值。 　　然財富管理業務之經營，終究有其須注意之風險，一為「策略風險」，一為「作業風險」。雖「策略風險」難以量化，也未普遍為業者所重視，然有謂「錯誤的決策，比貪污更可怕」，姑不論此言之對錯，但錯誤之決策會造成績效之不彰及資源之浪費，確屬不爭之事實。故本文專章論述經營策略，期所提出之分析與探討有助於業者經營時之省思。另有關「作業風險」，亦是日常之業務經營中稍有不慎即有可能對銀行造成重大損失、甚至被迫退出市場之風險。霸菱銀行殷鑑不遠，甚至以國際知名之花旗集團，其日本之私人銀行亦因涉未注意洗錢防制及資訊揭露等作業風險問題，而被勒令關閉。故內部稽核及內部控制等基本功之具體落實，確有其必要。本文就作業風險部份亦專章論述，從主管機關之相關規範，到國外相關機構之規範及做法，作業風險案例介紹，相關作業風險之管理等，皆做一分析與探討，期從所提出之案例，讓銀行業者於從事財富管理業務時，非僅注意手續費收入之多寡，或僅專注於市場佔有率之提升，而是實質注意到伴隨手續費收入而來之風險；盼所提出之風險分析，讓業者因瞭解風險之無所不在，而正視其重要性與迫切性，期將財富管理業務之作業風險減至最低。 / Abstract Just not long ago, domestic banks in Taiwan, with little differentiations, claimed their expertise in corporate finance and have allocated simultaneously most of their resources in this business. Ironically, however, corporate finance was also the area where the banking industry suffered the most. The problematic exiting of Chung Shing Bank and Kaohsiung Business Bank were obviously costly examples. Actually, almost all major banks were writing off their bad loans every year in billion of New Taiwan dollars for the past few years. Banking institutions tried to develop alternative business models by engaging in consumer banking, and some has indeed found its success. One of the stars that owned the spotlight was the revolving interest income from credit cards. Later, with the aggressive and successful marketing campaign of so-called “George & Mary” Cash Card by Cosmos Bank, the importance of consumer banking was pushed to its plateau. Nonetheless, loose risk management caused the bad debts of credit/cash cards to mount up and become potentially a serious problem. Foreign securities firms have already indicated their reservation of those top cash card business banks. A few banks have even suspended their cash card business. In light of the challenging environment facing corporate and consumer banking, banking institutions gradually turned to “Wealth Management” and holds high expectation that it will become a means to enhance their fee income. Indeed, wealth management has, in a matter of two to three years, started from a neglected corner of a bank’s business lobby developed progressively as a business trend leading how Taiwanese invest their wealth. The rapid pace of development in wealth management business certainly warrants our closer examination of various major issues relate to this phenomenon. To begin with the backgrounds, the aging of population has derived the need for retirement planning. The economic success of Taiwan over the years has contributed to the growth of numbers of wealthy families. The low interest rate environment has directed people to manage their wealth more actively. It was against this background that wealth management made its debut in the financial market, and caught the attention of the market, and became the central focus of the banking battleground. Additionally, recent changes in banking regulations, particularly, the introduction and planned implementation of Basel Capital Accord II, also pressured banking institutions to adjust their business strategy. Under Basel II, a bank will be required of more capital when engaging in corporate or consumer banking to cover credit risks. In contrast, wealth management needs to cover only operational risks. Not to mention that it also helps to diversify a bank’s source of income and risks portfolio. In terms of risks relate to wealth management, there are basically strategic risks and operational risks. Strategic risk may be difficult to quantity and certainly was not paid enough attention than it deserves. As people often said, “an erroneous strategic decision is worse than embezzlement”. Wrong decision often caused underperformance and waste of resources. This thesis, accordingly, attempts to analyze business strategies as it relates to a bank’s engagement in wealth management business. Furthermore, operational risk is also an area which could cause significant damages to a banking institution. In its worst case, operational risks might even cause the collapse of a bank. Baring’s scandal doesn’t seem to have happened that long ago. Even Citicorp private banking was sanctioned by the Japanese authority for failed to comply with the money laundry and disclosure requirements. It is therefore, essential that banks pay enough attention to its internal control and audit. This paper will also discuss operational risks issues, including relevant regulations, the practices in other major jurisdictions, case studies, and management of operational risks. The desire of the author is to alert the banking institutions that when engaging in wealth management, neither fee income nor market share should be their only focus. The effectiveness to control operational risks to its minimum is equally if not more important for a bank wishing to achieve success in wealth management business.

Notre intérêt dans cette thèse est de combiner les différentes techniques de mesure du risque opérationnel dans les secteurs financiers, et on s'intéresse plus particulièrement aux conséquences du risque d'estimation dans les modèles, qui est un risque opérationnel particulier. Nous allons présenter les concepts mathématiques et actuariels associés ainsi qu'une application numérique en ce qui concerne l'approche de mesure avancée comme Loss Distribution pour calculer l'exigence en capital. En plus, on se concentre sur le risque d'estimation illustré avec l'analyse des scénarios de l'opinion d'experts en conjonction avec des données de pertes internes pour évaluer notre exposition aux évènements de gravité. Nous concluons cette première partie en définissant une technique de mise l'échelle sur la base de (MCO) qui nous permet de normaliser nos données externes à une banque locale Libanaise.Dans la deuxième partie, on donne de l'importance sur la mesure de l'erreur induite sur le SCR par l'erreur d'estimation des paramètres, on propose une méthode alternative pour estimer une courbe de taux et on termine par attirer l'attention sur les réflexions autour des hypothèses de calcul et ce que l'on convient de qualifier d'hypothèse "cohérente avec les valeurs de marché" serait bien plus pertinente et efficace que la complexification du modèle, source d'instabilité supplémentaire, ainsi mettre en évidence le risque d'estimation qui est lié au risque opérationnel et doit être accordé beaucoup plus d'attention dans nos modèles de travail / Our interest in this thesis is first to combine the different measurement techniques for operational risk in financial companies, and we highlight more and more the consequences of estimation risk which is treated as a particular part of operational risk. In the first part, we will present a full overview of operational risk, from the regulatory laws and regulations to the associated mathematical and actuarial concepts as well as a numerical application regarding the Advanced Measurement Approach, like Loss Distribution to calculate the capital requirement, then applying the Extreme Value Theory. We conclude this first part by setting a scaling technique based on (OLS) enabling us to normalize our external data to a local Lebanese Bank. On the second part, we feature estimation risk by first measuring the error induced on the SCR by the estimation error of the parameters, to having an alternative yield curve estimation and finishing by calling attention to the reflections on assumptions of the calculation instead of focusing on the so called hypothesis "consistent with market values", would be more appropriate and effective than to complicate models and generate additional errors and instability. Chapters in this part illustrate the estimation risk in its different aspects which is a part of operational risk, highlighting as so the attention that should be given in treating our models

The thesis focuses on internal management and control systems in connection with operational risk management (ORM) process. The Basel II concept is outlined from the operational risk point of view, incl. methods for capital requirement for operational risk. Consequently, essential regulatory requirements and bank standards for effective management and control systems are specified. ORM tools that are potentially able to capture business environment and internal controls factors (to be regarded within AMA models) are disserted, specially concentrating on key risk indicators. Construction of this ORM tool is designed on a theoretical basis and also on an example related to payment systems. There is an evaluation of advantages, challenges and possible ways to use this method.

Bakgrund: Relationen mellan avkastning och risk har länge varit debatterad. Den klassiska modellen Capital Asset Pricing Model, CAPM, är en av standardmodellerna inom finans. CAPM har dock brister och kompenserar inte investerare för den företagsspecifika risken som tas. Senare forskning har visat på att det är den företagsspecifika risken som utgör den största delen av total aktierisk och har fortsatt att öka under de tre senaste decennierna. Detta medför att det finns ett intresse att undersöka och analysera sambandet mellan den interna risken som företag har och den aktievolatilitet som återfinns på marknaden. Syfte: Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka och analysera sambandet mellan företags interna risk i form av nyckeltal och aktievolatilitet på svenska noterade bolag på Nasdaq OMX Stockholm under perioden 2007 till 2018. Studien kommer att specifikt undersöka sambandet mellan två typer av risk; finansiell risk och operationell risk. Metod: För att uppnå syftet med studien har en deduktiv ansats och en kvantitativ metod tillämpats för att undersöka och analysera två dataset bestående av aktievolatilitet och nyckeltal baserad på data från kvartalsrapporter. Studien har använt en obalanserad paneldata av kort karaktär. Resultat: Studiens resultat tyder på att omkring hälften av aktievolatilitet kan förklaras av den interna risken. Intressant är att resultaten även indikerar att investerare värderar den finansiella och operationella risken som lika värdefulla vid bedömningen av den interna risken. Författarnas slutsats blir att den företagsspecifika risken har en relativt stor påverkan på aktievolatilitet och att det är värt i framtiden att diskutera hur investerare adekvat ska kompenseras för den faktiskt tagna risken. / Background: A long debated area within financial theory is the relationship between risk and return. The classic Capital Asset Pricing Model, CAPM, has long been the preferred model within finance. CAPM is however not without its flaws and do not compensate the investors for the idiosyncratic risk that is taken. Recent research has suggested that it is the idiosyncratic risk that is the main driver of the total risk in stock volatility, and that the impact of this risk have continued to increase over the last three decades. Considering this, it is of interest to examine and analyze the relationship between the internal risk of companies and the stock volatility reflected on the market. Aim: The aim of this study is to examine and analyze the effect the internal risk, in the form of key ratios, has on stock volatility on Swedish public companies listed on Nasdaq OMX Stockholm during the time period of 2007 to 2018. The study will especially focus on two types of internal risk; financial risk and operational risk. Methodology: This study has used a deductive approach and a quantitative methodology to fulfill the aim of the study. The study has used an unbalanced panel data of short character to examine and analyze the datasets consisting of stock volatility and data retrieved from quarterly reports. Results: The results indicate that approximately half of the stock volatility can be attributed to the internal risk. The results further indicate that investors value the financial and operational risk equally when assessing the internal risk in the company. The authors conclusion from the study is that the idiosyncratic risk has a relatively large effect on stock volatility and that a future discussion, about the compensation investors receive is adequate to the actual risk that is taken, is needed.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-25T18:40:23Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Luiz Fernando Fabbrine Lima.pdf: 1119544 bytes, checksum: 2fc6e3d62d479c91ff20df0ef58db12e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007-06-20 / The corporate governance proposes guidelines for qthe company management to be put into practice from the high administration to the lowest hierarchical levels through a group of devices, which includes the operational risks management. Such an argument has got an increasing importance in the last years because of the constant losses due to the lack of adequate controls on operational events in financial institutions mainly. Therefore, the mainly codes of corporate governance propose guidelines for the operational risk management. Otherwise we verify some difficulties on the application of these practices of qualitative management of risks due to the lack of successful publicizing methods (benchmark). The problem is finding how to accomplish the operational risk management in order to decrease the losses. This study investigates the qualitative practices of operational risk management (Basel II), which were adopted in financial institutions in Brazil, as well all the main advantages and difficulties found by the managers or improvement to be done. That is why it has been done an exploring research to analyze six financial institutions. The instruments of the present research consisted on the accomplishment of some interviews, the application of questionnaires as well as the analysis of internal documents. The results show that the foreigner institutions settled in Brazil are on an advanced stage in comparison to the national institutions when it refers to the application of auto-evaluating practices of the risks and controls as well as indicators monitoring of operational risks. Among the contributions carried by these practices there are the prioritization and the improvement those critical fragile control processes. There is also the necessity to warrant more independence to the area of operational risks in relation to the other areas of the institution in order to reduce fortuitous interest conflicts and permitting an adequate operational risk management in the financial institutions / As práticas de governança corporativa propõem diretrizes de gestão empresarial a serem praticadas desde a alta administração até os níveis hierárquicos mais baixos, por meio de um conjunto de mecanismos no qual se inclui a gestão dos riscos operacionais. O tema adquiriu importância crescente nos últimos anos, em virtude das constantes perdas ocasionadas por falta de controles adequados em eventos operacionais, principalmente em instituições financeiras. Dessa forma, os principais códigos de governança propõem diretrizes para a gestão dos riscos operacionais. Porém, verificam-se dificuldades na aplicação de práticas de gestão qualitativa dos riscos operacionais, em virtude da falta de divulgação de métodos bem sucedidos (benchmark). A questão é descobrir como efetuar a gestão do risco operacional a fim de minimizar as perdas. Este estudo investiga as práticas qualitativas de gestão de risco operacional (Basiléia II) adotadas em instituições financeiras no Brasil, bem como os principais benefícios e dificuldades encontradas pelos gestores e possíveis melhorias a serem implementadas. Para tanto, foi realizada uma pesquisa exploratória e foram estudadas seis instituições financeiras, tendo como instrumento de pesquisa a realização de entrevistas, a aplicação de questionários e a análise de documentos e relatórios internos. Os resultados mostram que as instituições estrangeiras no Brasil estão em um estágio mais avançado em relação às instituições nacionais na aplicação de práticas de auto-avaliação de riscos e controles e no monitoramento de indicadores de riscos operacionais. Dentre as principais contribuições trazidas por essas práticas têm-se a priorização e o aprimoramento de processos críticos com controles frágeis. Porém, há a necessidade de garantir uma maior independência da área de riscos operacionais, em relação às demais áreas da instituição, a fim de minimizar possíveis conflitos de interesses e permitir uma adequada gestão do risco operacional no cotidiano das instituições financeiras

The debate on quantitative operational risk modeling has only started at the beginning of the last decade and the best-practices are still far from being established. Estimation of capital requirements for operational risk under Advanced Measurement Approaches of Basel II is critically dependent on the choice of risk measure, which quantifies the risk exposure based on the underlying simulated distribution of losses. Despite its well-known caveats Value-at-Risk remains a predominant risk measure used in the context of operational risk management. We describe several serious drawbacks of Value-at-Risk and explain why it can possibly lead to misleading conclusions. As a remedy we suggest the use of coherent risk measures - and namely the statistic known as Expected Shortfall - as a suitable alternative or complement for quantification of operational risk exposure. We demonstrate that application of Expected Shortfall in operational loss modeling is feasible and produces reasonable and consistent results. We also consider a variety of statistical techniques for modeling of underlying loss distribution and evaluate extreme value theory framework as the most suitable for this purpose. Using stress tests we further compare the robustness and consistency of selected models and their implied risk capital estimates...

Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:25:23Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Arthur Monteiro Gabbay.pdf: 425008 bytes, checksum: 1824b9dbd4b1080b887305933b95be36 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-08-11 / Fundo Mackenzie de Pesquisa / Many authors consider Operational Risk as a key variable for maintaining the balance of the global financial market. The objective of this dissertation is to study the development of a Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA), specifically the Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) on a database of actual operational losses. Being more specifically, this study promotes an analysis about the results and possible limitations related to the implementation of the model. To achieve these goals, it is needed to discuss the definitions of Operational Risk, Monte Carlo Simulation and value-at-risk (VaR), considering that these concepts are crucial to the implementation of the LDA. / O risco operacional é considerado por muitos autores uma variável determinante para a manutenção do equilíbrio do mercado financeiro global. O objetivo desta dissertação é estudar o desenvolvimento de uma modelo de Abordagem de Mensuração Avançada (AMA),mais especificamente a Loss Distribution Approach (LDA), sobre um banco de dados reais de perdas operacionais. Mais especificamente este estudo promove uma análise sobre os resultados e sobre eventuais limitações relacionadas à aplicação do modelo. Para realização destes objetivos, abordam-se as definições do risco operacional, simulação de Monte Carlo e value-at-risk (VaR), haja vista que estes são conceitos cruciais para a aplicação do LDA.

Bakgrund och Problem: Det har visat sig att en gemensam nämnare bland de bakomliggande orsakerna till den senaste finanskrisen var bristande intern kontroll. Det var även en av orsakerna till att en svensk bank i augusti år 2010 gick i konkurs och det kan ses som högst oväntat med tanke på de utvecklade regler, ramverk och granskningar som finns för de svenska bankerna idag. För att den interna kontrollen i ett företag ska fungera väl måste den integreras i hela verksamheten. I dagsläget finns det tecken på att det råder en lucka mellan den interna kontroll som styrelse vill uppnå och den som når fram till medarbetarna i banken. Syfte: Uppsatsens syfte är att studera hur de fyra svenska storbankerna arbetar med intern kontroll idag samt analysera kommunikationen och integrationen av den interna kontrollen i verksamheten. Vidare vill vi bidra till en insikt om hur intern kontroll integreras och blir en del av det dagliga arbetet i banken. Metod/Empiri: Då studien undersöker hur kommunikationen och integrationen av intern kontroll ser ut i de svenska storbankerna, ansågs en enbart kvalitativ metod med intervjuer av personer som aktivt arbetar med intern kontroll inte vara tillräckligt. Det empiriska materialet består därför av intervjuer med personer som arbetar aktivt med den interna kontrollen i de fyra svenska storbankerna samt en enkätundersökning bland medarbetarna ute i verksamheten. Slutsats: Arbetet med den interna kontrollen i de svenska storbankerna fungerar väl och det går att märka en tendens till ökat fokus inom området. En samlad bedömning och en jämförelse av intervjurespondenternas svar och enkäternas svar visar att ett gap i kommunikationen angående den interna kontrollen kan anas. Det finns därmed också en brist i integrationen av den interna kontrollen. / Background and Problem: It was shown that the lack of internal control was a common denominator among the reasons for the recent financial crisis. It was also one of the reasons that a Swedish bank in August 2010 went bankrupt and this can be seen as highly unexpected due to the developed rules, frameworks and reviews that exist for the Swedish banks today. In order for a company to accomplish a well functional internal control it must be integrated throughout the whole organization. In the current situation there is evidence confirming an existence of a gap between the internal control a board request and what is accessible to employees in the bank. Aim: The purpose of this thesis is to study how the four major Swedish banks are operating the internal control today, also, analyzing the communication and integration of the internal control within the organization. We also wish to contribute to an understanding of how internal control is integrated and how it becomes a part of the daily work in the bank. Method/Empirics: Since this study examines how communication and integration of internal control appears in the major Swedish banks, a purely qualitative approach with interviews of people who actively work with the internal control was not considered as sufficient. Therefore, the empirical data consists of interviews with employees who are actively working with internal control in the four major Swedish banks and additionally, a survey was sent to the employees working in the daily business. Conclusions: The work with internal control in the major Swedish banks is well functioning and it is possible to notice a tendency for increased focus for the subject. An overall assessment and comparison of responses from the interviews and the survey indicates a gap in communication regarding internal control. Thus, there is a lack of integration of the internal control.

銀行是商業金融活動中不可或缺的一環，其經營管理的良窳直接與經濟、財政之穩定息息相關。近年來，銀行經營環境丕變，業務日趨龐雜，不論是金融界或監理機關，都已意識到作業風險管理的重要性。對於銀行業這樣一個關乎國計民生的重要產業，深入了解其作業風險應有之程序，以及其進行作業風險管理時之內控作為，應有見微知著之管理意義。 新版巴塞爾資本協定(The New Basel Capital Accord，亦稱”Basel II”)已於2004年6月底正式定案，預計2006年底開始實施，其中進階方法將在2007年底適用，Basel II的修訂範圍頗大，將對各國銀行業及金融監理機關產生重大影響，各國為因應新巴塞爾資本協定的實施也早已開始進行各項研究評估及法案研擬。我國金管會為使國內銀行資本適足性管理及風險管理能力符合國際水準，已於民國九十三年九月二十一日發函通知銀行，參照國際規範修訂我國「銀行資本適足性管理辦法」及「銀行自有資本與風險性資產計算方法說明」等規定，預定將與國際同步於民國九十五年底正式實施新巴塞爾資本協定，因此各家銀行必須及早規劃以因應新巴塞爾資本協定相關措施，並建立妥善風險管理機制，以確保法規遵循及提昇競爭力。 而美國國會為強化證券市場之監控及公司治理，亦已於2002年7月30日公布SARBANES-OXLEY ACT OF 2002(沙氏法案)，為美國自30年代推行公司治理架構以來，影響最為重大之財經改革法案。沙氏法案針對公司治理提出一系列的要求，為避免企業在資訊揭露方面造假或扭曲，特別針對內部控制的建立、維持及其有效性，要求企業管理階層必須負起責任，同時亦要求企業必須出具對有關財務報導之內部控制有效性的評估報告。 Basel II與沙氏法案有其相異之處，前者係對全世界銀行業者之規範，後者則係美國針對公開發行等級以上公司所作之規範，舉凡已屬公開發行之公司，其任何資訊揭露均足以影響投資人決策，而發行公司任何不實或虛偽資訊揭露，均可能影響資本市場，使廣大投資人權益受損。雖然Basel II著眼在銀行，沙氏法案重點在證券市場公司之治理，然則兩者均著重有系統的由內而外、由上而下的控制機制，不獨要求業者必須建立良好之控制機制，同時在各項控制機制上亦必須有書面做為佐證，而兩項規範亦均導入外控機制，在Basel II為第三支柱之市場紀律，在沙氏法案則為會計師對企業內控有效性之意見，兩者自有其神似之處。 作者任職於美商銀行從事後台管理工作多年，擬藉本論文之撰寫及探討，補強銀行業者對銀行作業風險及控制自評全貌之了解。

Our interest in this thesis is first to combine the different measurement techniques for operational risk in financial companies, and we highlight more and more the consequences of estimation risk which is treated as a particular part of operational risk. In the first part, we will present a full overview of operational risk, from the regulatory laws and regulations to the associated mathematical and actuarial concepts as well as a numerical application regarding the Advanced Measurement Approach, like Loss Distribution to calculate the capital requirement, then applying the Extreme Value Theory. We conclude this first part by setting a scaling technique based on (OLS) enabling us to normalize our external data to a local Lebanese Bank. On the second part, we feature estimation risk by first measuring the error induced on the SCR by the estimation error of the parameters, to having an alternative yield curve estimation and finishing by calling attention to the reflections on assumptions of the calculation instead of focusing on the so called hypothesis "consistent with market values", would be more appropriate and effective than to complicate models and generate additional errors and instability. Chapters in this part illustrate the estimation risk in its different aspects which is a part of operational risk, highlighting as so the attention that should be given in treating our models