自2005年起，台灣面臨不斷擴張的卡債問題，類似南韓及香港的信用卡危機的困境。現金卡及信用卡本為銀行爭相發展的業務，但是自從雙卡危機發生後，卻轉變為不被看好的業務。本研究主要探討台灣的雙卡危機，並介紹香港、南韓、及美國曾經歷的消費金融問題。此外，我們也分析它的發生原因及影響，並從中提出建議。 本研究發現，自從1997年亞洲金融危機後，南韓、香港、及台灣的金融機構減少企業部門的貸款，把焦點轉向消費金融業務。由於民眾消費習慣的改變，加上金融機構急於擴展個人信貸市場，卻忽視風險的控管，信用市場氾濫無度的情形終於暴露出來，許多人被推到破產的邊緣。雖然這些國家的政府已採取措施，對信貸擴張降溫，但是信用破產風險仍然揮之不去。 依據本研究結果提出以下的建議: (1) 監理機關應加強落實事前管理工作，並對銀行的授信政策執行情況嚴格檢查，要求銀行適當的公開資訊揭露，對於問題金融機構能及早干預；(2) 金融業者善用本身的特色致力於創新，參酌內部及聯徵中心的信用評分結果，採取差別利率並檢視債信變化，為因應「消費者債務清理條例」辦理消費金融業務應更謹慎；及 (3) 建議消費者養成正確的消費觀念，維護及重視個人信用，並有積極正確的理債態度。 / Since 2005, Taiwan has facing a serious card debt problem and widespread default of loan similar to those effects in South Korea and Hong Kong. Due to the outburst of the twin-cards crises, the bad debt issue made these financial tools from profit provider into trouble maker. The purpose of this paper is to research the crisis of twin cards in Taiwan. Besides, we introduce several cases of consumer financing dilemma in South Korea, Hong Kong and the United States. Furthermore, we analyze the critical determinants and relevant repercussions connecting to the credit crisis, proposing detailed suggestions and solutions to the issue involving in credit debt. The main finding of this empirical study indicates that after 1997 Asia financial crisis, financial institutions of South Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan radically decreased their lending to corporate sector, and they instead turned their sights on household loan. Due to the shift of Customer consumption habit and unlimited expansion in credit card market, some banks and financial institutions fail to perform the evaluation of risk management. Consequently, excess supply of credit would result in bad loan, thus many people were pushed to the edge of personal insolvency. Although the governments of these countries have taken some necessary steps to curb the overheating credit market, the risks of a credit bust still linger. According to the research findings, we have the following suggestions. First, the financial supervisory commission should regulate the fundamental guidelines of all financial institutes, performing its authority by requesting all banks to reveal relevant information and by diagnosing all banks to prevent problem. Second, these institutions should take the outcome of the credit rating system into account, basing their evaluations accordingly on the strategy of discrimination in interest rate and on relevant egulations. Third, we suggest that consumers should learn adequate consumption behavior, and that individuals should develop positive attitude in financial management.

銀行消費金融壓力測試-以信用卡產品為個案研究 / Stress Testing in Consumer Banking- Case Study of Credit Card Portfolio Financial institutions have grown increasingly complex and diverse in recent years. Hence, financial institutions emphasize more on strengthening their risk management mechanism. The completeness of risk management techniques are regard as the competitive advantages of the institution. One set of risk management techniques that has attracted a great deal of attention is “stress testing”. Many banks paid a heavy price during the Asian Economic crisis of 1997-98. Prior to the crisis, banks assessed customers’ credit worthiness using their traditional expertise in individual risk assessment. However, this assessment was applicable only to normal business conditions. As long as the exceptional stress event occurred, the entire customers credit-worthy changed, resulting in extreme losses. This illustrates the importance of banks have a sound credit stress testing program. In this thesis, author takes one commercial bank’s credit card portfolio as an example by applying the stress testing framework introduced in literature. In this stress testing process, the author set up two hypothetical scenarios – worse case and meltdown case - to compare with the base scenario and demonstrate the result of each scenario with the impact of loss, capital adequacy ratio and coverage ratio. In the stress testing result, the bank will generate additional NT$498.9 millions of credit loss in worse case and NT$1859.4 millions of credit loss in meltdown case. The bank can still stay safe in terms of capital adequacy. However, the coverage ratio is insufficient. It is suggested to take remedial actions to increase the provision directly or lower the NPL amount by tightening credit card policies such as stop granting credit limit to customers whose outstanding debt increased recently or lower customers’ credit limit or freeze cash advance transactions to prevent from further losses. Suggestions for banks which adopt stress testing are: (1) Conduct further portfolio segmentation base upon the portfolio characteristics; (2) Conduct stress testing process on a timely basis; (3) Senior management’s involvement in stress testing process is essential; (4) Document all the rationales; (5) Adjust stress testing based upon the purposes or risk types; (6) The effectiveness and robustness of stress tests should be assessed regularly.

以往銀行推動消費金融業務的商業模式，以行員對客戶採行一對一銷售的Retail Model為主，透過直接服務的方式有效傳遞資訊，並能深耕客戶維護良好關係。然而，針對消費金融業務具有案件多、金額小之特性，除了上述Retail Model外，藉由尋求合作夥伴的配合，發展一對多的服務方式，以Wholesale Model快速達到規模經濟，成為拓展業務的另一項選擇。以車輛貸款為例，銀行與車輛經銷體系或其他金融服務業者進行業務合作，藉著通路型態的改變，以B2B2C的方式間接觸客戶，並將產品、服務與作業程序標準化，以降低營運與時間成本，創造彼此合作的最佳效益，為對Wholesale Model最好的詮釋。由於Retail Model與Wholesale Model各有其運作上的優勢及考量，各銀行依其業務策略、關鍵資源與競爭優勢選擇運用適合自身發展的模式。 本研究以個案公司之消費金融業務在拓展產品線與增加銷售通路，以創造利潤最大化及擴大客戶規模的策略目標下，評估將採取傳統Retail Model或增加Wholesale Model重返車輛貸款市場為題，探討企業以後進者的角色切入成熟產品與穩定市場時的考量與思維，以及如何突破現有框架，發展符合個案公司發揮關鍵資源，展現企業能耐的商業模式。本研究並分析個案公司的特色與優勢，對應外部分工差異、貸款案件控管、受託機構風險、成本效益與市場定位等面向，對於選擇營運模式決策的影響。本研究發現，當個案公司加入車輛貸款市場的競爭時，除了確實掌握市場脈動外，運用利基在諸多價值活動的規劃上創造新的市場區隔，尋求商業機會，以創新的商業模式因應發展策略與核心目標。

近年由於消費型態改變，加上金融技術進步、消費貸款相關法令鬆綁與政府政策刺激消費，以消費者為導向之金融商品漸趨多元化，導致消費金融在全球蓬勃發展；而直接金融興起，使得銀行在企業融資活動中地位重要性不如從前，來自企業金融的收入也隨之受到影響，種種因素加深銀行轉向推展消費金融業務，尋求新的收入來源。台灣自1990中期後，消費金融從金融體系的邊緣性業務逐漸躍升居主要業務，以民國93年資料顯示，消費金融貸款已成為銀行第一大貸款業務。有鑑於無人針對消費金融各項主要業務對銀行績效之影響做一綜合性探討，本研究將先針對國內消費金融發展做一說明、探討，再使用Panel 模型針對主要消費金融業務對銀行績效影響做一探討。 研究發現如下: 一、國內消費金融規模逐漸擴大，以信用卡、現金卡放款、其他消費性 貸款業務成長最快，整體消費金融朝向無擔保信貸發展，傳統有擔保 之業務比重不若以往。 二、民營銀行在消費金融績效優於公營銀行，尤其是金控底下之子銀行， 由於具有通路與規模之利，在推展消金時成效較好。 三、研究期間，消費金融業務對銀行績效確實優於企業金融業務，其中以 房貸對於銀行整體績效貢獻可以同時兼顧收入與風險面，對於整體銀 行逾放比呈現負向顯著關係，收入面則呈現正向挹注效果；而現金卡 放款與信用卡循環信用對銀行收入呈現顯著正向挹注效果，兩項業 務之利率達到15%以上，卻也同時具有增加銀行逾放比效果，此現象 符合高風險高報酬；車貸方面則因積極運作銀行屬於少數，雖然仍與 銀行收入呈現正向關係，但此關聯性不是很鮮明。

授信業務為銀行主要業務之一，亦為銀行收益的主要來源，授信品質之優劣影響銀行經營之健全甚鉅，因此在金融危機中，許多銀行已調整其授信內容，對企業放款權值大幅降低，增加消費性貸款的比重，避免授信風險過度集中。消費性貸款具有金額小，核貸案件多且速度快等特性，再加上授信對象也就是借款者個人之還款來源，不若企業放款戶有較多可供取得的資訊佐證參考，亦具相當之潛在風險，因此良好的授信管理格外重要。 自從開放民營銀行後，近年國內銀行業之消費性放款業務的蓬勃發展與金融產品的創新，主要是部份國內新銀行及外商銀行積極投入市場所致，其中許多金融商品及金融財務工程技術係引進國外或全然創新，就國內多數銀行而言相當陌生，以往我國金融業由於國營者多，尤以老行庫的影響最為顯著，因此當各銀行為搶佔此一市場時，往往僅就商品的表象模仿，並未就商品本身的潛在風險仔細評估，更重要的是未建立合適的風險管理機制，若控管失策將如同企業授信一般，逾期放款與日俱增，嚴重侵蝕銀行獲利。 自亞洲金融風暴後，新政府力主大改革情況下，開始視風險管理為首務，因此它在金融業務上所扮演角色也甚重要。經營消費性貸款的目的，就是在合理的可接受的風險程度下，追求最大利潤，有鑑於此，本研究著眼於消費金融授信管理的流程探討，並針對新銀行消費性貸款授信管理制度的現況與執行面的落實與否加以分析，藉以找出適當的解決之道，為銀行之經營提升績效。

本研究旨在探討銀行消費金融業務績效獎勵制度中，升遷制度及獎金制度對於業務人員績效表現的影響，同時探討業務人員個人背景對於績效表現的差異性。研究方法以個案分析法，藉由個案銀行業務人員實際的業績資料分析，深入了解各項激勵制度的設計對於業務人員績效表現的影響，以及各類不同背景的人員在績效表現上的差異。本研究的主要發現如下： 1.藉由升遷制度的設計，可以有效激勵業務人員發揮更高的工作績效。 2.獎金制度的設計，對於業務人員績效表現的影響： (1)調降獎勵門檻，對於激勵業務人員績效提升的效果不佳；而縮減獎勵總額，獎金的激勵效果降低，業務人員的績效表現變差。 (2)利用定額目標獎勵的方式，讓業務人員容易感受到領取獎金的價值，激勵業績達成的效果明顯。 (3)獎金率調降，業務人員認為投入－產出比率與過去不相等產生失望，績效表現下滑；給付頻率較長的遞延性獎金，無法有效提升業務人員的業績產出。 (4)手續費收入獎金的設計，可以增加業務人員向客戶爭取洽收手續費的誘因，以爭取獎金。 3.不同個人背景在績效表現上的差異：(1)男性業務人員的平均業績達成高於女性業務人員，(2)年齡在26至30歲的業務人員業績達成表現較佳，(3)未婚業務人員業績表現優於已婚的業務人員，(4)學歷愈高在業績的表現上有愈好的趨勢，(5)無工作經驗及曾任職銀行的業務人員業績表現較佳，二度就業的業務人員則相對表現較差。 / The primary purpose of this study is to explore how the work performance of consumer banking sales is affected by promotion programs, bonus programs, personal background and work experiences. A case study approach is applied to study the work performance of salespersons in a large-scale bank. The empirical results of this study are stated as follows： 1.Promotion programs can motivate salespersons to create higher performance. 2.Details of the influence of bonus programs includes: (1) lowering the threshold of paying bonus can hardly motivate salespersons to improve outputs. Reducing the amount of incentive can deteriorate the capacity of a salesperson, (2) the fixed amount of bonus for certain target makes salespersons feel the value of incentive easily, so that they can reach a higher level of performance, (3) the decline in bonus rate can reduce the performance of salespersons because of unequal input-output ratio. On the other hand, deferred payments of bonus can not motivate salespersons to increase outputs. (4) Fee income bonus can boost incentives for salespersons to charge more fees for customers. 3.The salesperson’s performance can be affected by personal background: (1) performance of male salespersons is superior to that of female ones, (2) the 26 to 30 year old salespersons reach higher level of performance, (3) unmarried salespersons perform better than married ones, (4) salespersons with higher education degrees tent to deliver higher performance, (5) salespersons without work experiences and the ones who have served in other banks perform better. However, salesperson of re-employment perform relatively poor.

過去幾年，國內銀行消費金融的競爭，使得整個社會開始一起承擔後果！辦理信用卡消費，或與銀行進行小額借貸的動作是一種現代人的理財基本常識與服務，但各家銀行由於看到幾家大型銀行發出的信用卡、現金卡獲利可觀，因此大舉以各種行銷手法(辦卡開卡贈禮、以卡辦卡、餘額代償、低利促銷..等)，搶食信用卡及無擔保消費金融市場。使得銀行彼此之間市場紀律蕩然無存，導致高風險客戶舉債金額快速擴大，最後苦嚐惡果，債權難以回收成為呆帳。債務收回困難下，卻將債權切割出售或委外，使部份銀行或資產管理公司發生不當手段進行催債，終使卡債、卡奴引爆出政治、經濟及社會問題，消費金融系統性授信用風險儼然發生。 台灣金融史上從未經歷過消費金融之經營危機，本研究以臺灣銀行業經營消費金融授信管理為範疇，研究目的呈現兩大重點。第一部份研究為什麼突然間消費金融信用風險在台灣金融市場爆發，就連表現績優之模範銀行無一倖免而受傷累累；第二部分則透過檢視消費金融無擔保之授信控管政策、組織及管理問題提出創新做法與實證研究，供銀行經營者有不同風險控管之思考，避免系統性信用風險發生。

隨著日益都市化生活的演進中，便利商店已和我們的生活息息相關且成為不可或缺的消費場所。以目前台灣地區六千餘家的便利商店中，大約裝設了超過三千台自動提款機(ATM)。其中光是中國信託商業銀行和統一超商7-11聯盟，就已經在其便利商店裝設超過二千台ATM。但是這些機器所提供給消費者的功能，似乎和一般裝設在銀行分行端的ATM沒有太大的差別，客戶也感受不到任何差異化的服務，明顯的表現就是機器的使用率偏低。若是長期以往，勢必無法引起消費者的青睞，甚至沉重的營運成本也將造成金融機構的財務負擔。 以日本為例，其為全世界每百萬人口ATM機器數量最高者，也是全球ATM裝設數量第二大的國家。自1999年開始，日本在零售通路ATM上，小自內容供應 (Content Provide)，大到異業結盟 (Joint Venture) 等，都有關鍵性的創新經營和策略模式。在內容供應上，日本銀行業者與內容供應商 (Content Providers) 合作，在ATM上提供民生消費及流行資訊等零售市場小額售價服務，真正做到於超商據點中提供消費者零售金融 (Retail Banking) 的服務；而在經營策略上，為了降低營運成本負擔及提高資產使用效率原則，其金融機構逐漸發展出異業結盟和專業委外的經營型態 (Business Model) 的概念，捨棄以往自行擁有 (Exclusive Ownership) 轉而成為向專業ATM經營公司租賃， 一則增加資產使用率、降低營運成本 ，另一方面藉由專業資訊管理機制所發展出來科技整合，加強金融服務和零售通路的優勢結合，增加客戶使用的方便性，也進一步擴大對消費者的服務範圍，達到雙贏的結果。 本篇研究以日本超商ATM現況為對象，並參考其發展模式，加入台灣經營環境及消費習慣，提出經營策略方案，讓國內銀行業者從財務和科技發展角度看ATM在零售市場通路的佈局。

摘 要 　　國內銀行傳統上最擅長及投注最多資源之領域即是企業金融業務，然經驗顯示此處亦為金融業者蒙受最多損失之處，甚至導致中興銀行及高雄企銀退出市場，大型行庫兩、三年前，每年打銷呆帳之金額係以新台幣數十億元、甚至上百億元計。其後消金業務盛行，信用卡循環信用業務之興起尤為引人注目，而現金卡亦在萬泰銀行的「George & Mary」之強勢促銷下製造出另一波高峰。然由於風險控管之鬆散，在卡債呆帳暗潮隱然成型，外資券商開始對現金卡業務暴衝至前幾名之銀行投以質疑的眼光之際，部份銀行也在此刻宣布停掉現金卡之業務。「財富管理」便是在銀行亟思轉向提高以手續費收入為基礎之殷殷期盼下，在國內銀行的業務領域中逐漸萌芽、茁壯。 在短短兩三年間，財富管理業務從在銀行營業廳一隅的小規模經營，到現在引領國人開啟投資理財之風潮，其方興未艾之勢頗值吾人加以探討。其成因包括人口老化問題衍生之退休規劃需求，因經濟活動之暢旺，造成富裕人口及富裕家庭數目之提昇，因微利時代的來臨等，皆實質地催化民眾對於理財之迫切需求，而「財富管理」即順應這種經濟金融環境之變遷，此其時地走入人群，成為眾所矚目之焦點，也成為這一年來銀行短兵相接之處。 　　其次，國際金融法規之變動，尤其是新巴塞爾資本協定(The Basel Capital Accord II)即將在2006年底實施，導致銀行在經營策略上不得不思考導入既能獲利，又屬低度資本需求業務之必要性，更何況銀行本身本應多元化其業務收入來源，以分散業務經營之風險。本文即從這些角度，探討財富管理業務之確具經營價值。 　　然財富管理業務之經營，終究有其須注意之風險，一為「策略風險」，一為「作業風險」。雖「策略風險」難以量化，也未普遍為業者所重視，然有謂「錯誤的決策，比貪污更可怕」，姑不論此言之對錯，但錯誤之決策會造成績效之不彰及資源之浪費，確屬不爭之事實。故本文專章論述經營策略，期所提出之分析與探討有助於業者經營時之省思。另有關「作業風險」，亦是日常之業務經營中稍有不慎即有可能對銀行造成重大損失、甚至被迫退出市場之風險。霸菱銀行殷鑑不遠，甚至以國際知名之花旗集團，其日本之私人銀行亦因涉未注意洗錢防制及資訊揭露等作業風險問題，而被勒令關閉。故內部稽核及內部控制等基本功之具體落實，確有其必要。本文就作業風險部份亦專章論述，從主管機關之相關規範，到國外相關機構之規範及做法，作業風險案例介紹，相關作業風險之管理等，皆做一分析與探討，期從所提出之案例，讓銀行業者於從事財富管理業務時，非僅注意手續費收入之多寡，或僅專注於市場佔有率之提升，而是實質注意到伴隨手續費收入而來之風險；盼所提出之風險分析，讓業者因瞭解風險之無所不在，而正視其重要性與迫切性，期將財富管理業務之作業風險減至最低。 / Abstract Just not long ago, domestic banks in Taiwan, with little differentiations, claimed their expertise in corporate finance and have allocated simultaneously most of their resources in this business. Ironically, however, corporate finance was also the area where the banking industry suffered the most. The problematic exiting of Chung Shing Bank and Kaohsiung Business Bank were obviously costly examples. Actually, almost all major banks were writing off their bad loans every year in billion of New Taiwan dollars for the past few years. Banking institutions tried to develop alternative business models by engaging in consumer banking, and some has indeed found its success. One of the stars that owned the spotlight was the revolving interest income from credit cards. Later, with the aggressive and successful marketing campaign of so-called “George & Mary” Cash Card by Cosmos Bank, the importance of consumer banking was pushed to its plateau. Nonetheless, loose risk management caused the bad debts of credit/cash cards to mount up and become potentially a serious problem. Foreign securities firms have already indicated their reservation of those top cash card business banks. A few banks have even suspended their cash card business. In light of the challenging environment facing corporate and consumer banking, banking institutions gradually turned to “Wealth Management” and holds high expectation that it will become a means to enhance their fee income. Indeed, wealth management has, in a matter of two to three years, started from a neglected corner of a bank’s business lobby developed progressively as a business trend leading how Taiwanese invest their wealth. The rapid pace of development in wealth management business certainly warrants our closer examination of various major issues relate to this phenomenon. To begin with the backgrounds, the aging of population has derived the need for retirement planning. The economic success of Taiwan over the years has contributed to the growth of numbers of wealthy families. The low interest rate environment has directed people to manage their wealth more actively. It was against this background that wealth management made its debut in the financial market, and caught the attention of the market, and became the central focus of the banking battleground. Additionally, recent changes in banking regulations, particularly, the introduction and planned implementation of Basel Capital Accord II, also pressured banking institutions to adjust their business strategy. Under Basel II, a bank will be required of more capital when engaging in corporate or consumer banking to cover credit risks. In contrast, wealth management needs to cover only operational risks. Not to mention that it also helps to diversify a bank’s source of income and risks portfolio. In terms of risks relate to wealth management, there are basically strategic risks and operational risks. Strategic risk may be difficult to quantity and certainly was not paid enough attention than it deserves. As people often said, “an erroneous strategic decision is worse than embezzlement”. Wrong decision often caused underperformance and waste of resources. This thesis, accordingly, attempts to analyze business strategies as it relates to a bank’s engagement in wealth management business. Furthermore, operational risk is also an area which could cause significant damages to a banking institution. In its worst case, operational risks might even cause the collapse of a bank. Baring’s scandal doesn’t seem to have happened that long ago. Even Citicorp private banking was sanctioned by the Japanese authority for failed to comply with the money laundry and disclosure requirements. It is therefore, essential that banks pay enough attention to its internal control and audit. This paper will also discuss operational risks issues, including relevant regulations, the practices in other major jurisdictions, case studies, and management of operational risks. The desire of the author is to alert the banking institutions that when engaging in wealth management, neither fee income nor market share should be their only focus. The effectiveness to control operational risks to its minimum is equally if not more important for a bank wishing to achieve success in wealth management business.

目前國內銀行針對無擔保消費金融業務，不再僅是重視放款量，控制申請人的信用風險、提高授信品質，更是不能等閒以對的重點。如何建構信用評分機制，降低呆帳率和授信逾放比，以減少銀行損失、增加實質獲利，已成為國內銀行共同關切與努力的課題。本研究擬藉由對無擔保消費金融商品之研究，瞭解該類借款人之信用風險，透過建置信用評分模型，做為銀行決策之參考。 國內銀行在審核無擔保消費金融貸款時，因貸款件數多，大都使用信用風險評分模型評估借款人風險。但實務上常發生借款人無JCIC資料，可評估其違約風險。目前可查到的建立信用風險模型研究中並沒有針對無JCIC資料借款人之研究。如何強化信用風險模型對於此客群之評估為本研究的目的。最後，本研究亦提出了一些重要的未來研究建議，以供後續的研究作為參考。