Thesis (MA (Political Science))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Political risk analysis is considered one of the essential ingredients in decision making processes when investing abroad. The Iranian Revolution and the oil crisis in the 1970s accentuated this need as investors increasingly felt the need for a proper assessment of the risks involved in establishing a business in other countries. Negative images of African countries combined with conventional risk models which are not able to accurately assess the political risk realities of post-conflict African countries, may be one of the reasons for why African countries struggle to attract a substantial amount of FDI. This study suggests that alternative risk models which are more African-orientated may aid in improving this situation. This study has analysed the political risk of Sierra Leone using a conventional risk model, and an African-orientated political risk model. The aim of this study was to assess whether conventional political risk models need to be adjusted to be able to more accurately assess the political risk of post-conflict African countries. The main research question guiding this study was:  Are conventional risk models able to objectively rate the political risk of post-conflict countries in Africa? The conclusion of this research was that African-orientated political risk models are able to more accurately assess the political risk of a post-conflict African country such as Sierra Leone. This is mainly due to the soft variables used in a political risk model and also the relationship between the variables included in the models. The African-orientated political risk model needs to be analysed further, but this research has made clear the need for a reevaluation of existing political risk models to be better equipped when analysing post-conflict African countries. This will not only benefit African post-conflict countries in improving their risk ratings, but also provide foreign investors with a more accurate identification of the potential political risks facing an investment in post-conflict African countries. It was acknowledged in this study that the political risk analyses of Sierra Leone were not conducted by someone who has inside information of the political risk models used which is a limitation iii for the results of this study. It is, however, possible to detect potential weaknesses with each political risk model and possible areas of improvements. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Politieke Risiko Analise word as een van die belangrikste bestandele in die besluitnemingsproses geag wanneer daar oorsee belê word. Die Iranese Rewolusie en die Olie krisis in die 1970’s het hierdie nood beklemtoon, aangesien beleggers toenemend die belang van deurdagte assesering van die risikos in verband met die oprigting en instandhouding van besighede in ander lande erken het. Negatiewe opvattings van Afrika lande, tesame met konventionele risiko modelle wat nie geskik is on akkurate asseserings van politike risiko realiteite op te lewer, is dalk van die redes waarom Afrika lande sukkel om groot Direkte Buitelandse Beleggings te lok. Hierdie studie stel voor dat alternatiewe risiko modelle wat meer Afrika-gesind van aard is die situasie kan help oorbrug. Hierdie studie het die politieke risiko situasie van die Sierra Leone analiseer aangaande‘n konvensionele riskio model en met behulp van’n Afrika-georienteerde politieke risiko model. Die studie het gepoog om te assesseer of die konvensionele modelle van politieke risiko gewysig moet word om in staat te wees om meer akkuraat te oordeel in verband met politieke risiko in post-konflik Afrika lande. Die hoof navorsingsvraag wat die studie gedryf het is die volgende: Is die konvensionele risiko modelle in staat om objektief te werk te gaan om die politieke risiko van post-konflik lande in Afrika te meet? Die gevolgtrekking van hierdie navorsing is dat die Afrika-georienteerde politieke risiko modelle meer gepas is om die politike risiko van post-konflik lande soos Sierra Leone te meet. Dit is hoofsaaklik die geval weens die sagte veranderlikes wat gebruik word in’n politieke risiko model asook die verband tussen die veranderlikes wat in die model ingesluit word. Die Afrika-georienteerde politieke risiko model moet verder uitgebrei word, alhoewel hierdie navorsing dit duidelik maak dat die belang bestaan vir‘n herevaluering van die bestaande politieke risiko modelle om beter toegerus te wees om analise van post-konflik Afrika lande uit te voer. Dit word erken dat hierdie studie van die politieke risiko van Sierra Leone nie uitgevoer was deur iemand wat‘n intieme kennis van politieke risiko modelle het nie. Dit is uiteindelik wel moontlik on potensiele swak plekke in die mondering van elke politieke risiko model uit te sonder, en moontlike areas van verbetering voor te stel.

The aim of this work is to develop a universal procedure introducing the concept of IT Governance using COBIT methodology to a small business environment. This thesis understands COBIT as a tool with which is possible to create a new business strategy for a firm and which will provide more competitive force for the firm in the competitive fight. The main contribution of this thesis is a theoretical research, which resulted in the proposal as how should a small company (which close-up characteristic is described in more detail in the work) proceed in a case that it decides to efficiently manage, manage and control the business IS / IT. This theoretical approach is then tested as a case study on a real small enterprise.

[pt] A Manutenção e Inspeção Baseada em Risco (IBR) compreende a utilização de ferramentas de cálculo de engenharia como análise estrutural por elementos finitos, análise de corrosão e fadiga, análise de risco e confiabilidade estrutural, de forma integrada, a fim de elaborar os planos de inspeção de maneira racional otimizada. No caso de inspeção de balsas para serviço offshore, particularmente da estrutura do convés principal da balsa, técnicas de análise de risco podem ser aplicadas para que se possam determinar os intervalos de inspeção de cada elemento da estrutura. Como resultado final, tem-se um plano de inspeção otimizado e aplicado à realidade estrutural da unidade. A presente dissertação tem por objetivo propor um método de predição baseado em IBR para aperfeiçoamento de processos de tomada de decisão referentes à manutenção de balsas para serviço offshore de uma grande empresa brasileira do setor de petróleo e gás natural. Apresenta-se um estudo de caso focalizando uma aplicação do método de predição em uma das balsas de serviço offshore da empresa – a Balsa de Serviço 3 (BS-3). Os resultados do estudo de caso permitem afirmar que a adoção de ferramentas de inspeção baseada em risco podem aumentar o TLV (Tempo Limite de Vida) das balsas de serviço offshore. Como consequência, os benefícios potenciais são: redução das incertezas associadas; identificação de avarias devido à deterioração estrutural; redução de custos de manutenção; e, principalmente, diminuição do tempo da paralisação das balsas de serviço. / [en] Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) involves the use of engineering calculation tools such as finite element structural analysis, corrosion and fatigue analysis, risk analysis and structural reliability in an integrated framework, in order to develop inspection plans in a rational and optimized manner. RBI attempts to map the structure degradation curve, in deterministic or probabilistic way. Once defined the degradation curve for the different areas of the structure, risk analysis techniques are applied to determine inspection intervals concerning each element of the structure. As final result, it is possible to obtain an optimized inspection plan applied to the structural reality of the unit. The objective of this dissertation is to propose a prediction method, based on RBI, to improve the decision-making process focusing on maintenance of offshore service barges of a large oil and gas company in Brazil. It presents a case study concerning an application of this prediction method in one of the offshore service barges of this company – Offshore Service Barge 3 (BS-3). The results show that the adoption of preventive inspections can enlarge the TLV (Time Limit of Life) of this type of unit. As a consequence, the potential benefits are: reduction of uncertainties; identification of faults due to structural deterioration; maintenance costs reduction; and, decreasing of time breakdowns concerning barge services.

Bases científicas para o entendimento dos efeitos da poluição atmosférica sobre a saúde humana são ainda necessárias em todo o mundo, considerando que os dados locais devem ser utilizados como parâmetro para tomada de decisão e controle da poluição do ar. Países em desenvolvimento carecem de tecnologia para detecção e mensuração dos níveis de poluição do ar, o que dificulta a atualização de legislação sobre padrões da qualidade do ar para o controle das fontes emissoras. Diversas abordagens metodológicas tem sido sugeridas por agências internacionais, no entanto para o contexto local faz-se necessário adaptações que resulte em métodos replicáveis pelas agências brasileiras. No Brasil, o Ministério da Saúde, através da Vigilância em Saúde Ambiental, estimula o desenvolvimento de metodologias que possam viabilizar a implementação do programa de vigilância em saúde relacionada à qualidade do ar. O objetivo deste estudo foi aplicar a metodologia de análise de riscos para avaliar a qualidade do ar na cidade de Salvador e o impacto sobre a saúde, na perspectiva de implantação de ações da Vigilância em Saúde Ambiental. Este estudo se caracteriza como ciência no contexto da ação. Foram realizados dois estudos para aplicação da metodologia proposta. No primeiro estudo, em fase de identificação do perigo, os poluentes foram caracterizados em termos de sua composição química, utilizando a técnica de biomonitoramento como ferramenta alternativa para acessar as partículas presentes na atmosfera urbana. Para a detecção de metais no material particulado foram utilizadas técnicas analíticas de espectrofotometria de absorção atômica e para a análise morfológica destas partículas foram utilizadas técnicas de microscopia eletrônica de varredura convencional e micro análises de raios-x. A composição química do material particulado foi estudada para entendimento das emissões locais. No segundo estudo, além da identificação do contaminante e caracterização do risco foi também avaliado a exposição à saúde humana. Estratégias de comunicação de riscos foram utilizadas para o envolvimento de partes interessadas. Os resultados de contaminação atmosférica observados nesta tese sugerem que as ferramentas aplicadas no contexto da análise de riscos, em suas diversas etapas, são viáveis, apresentando evidências científicas aos tomadores de decisão, e assim contribuindo com novas tecnologias para o SUS, especialmente na implementação de programa em vigilância da saúde relacionada à qualidade do ar / Scientific bases for understanding the effects of atmospheric pollution on human health are still necessary in all parts of the world, considering that local data should be used as a parameter for decision-making and the control of air pollution. Developing countries lack the technology to detect and measure levels of air pollution, making it difficult to update legislation on air quality standards for the control of emission sources. Several methodological approaches have been suggested by international agencies, however for the local context it is necessary to make adjustments that will result in replicable methods across Brazilian agencies. In Brazil, the Ministry of Health, through the Environmental Health Surveillance, stimulates the development of methodologies that can facilitate the implementation of a health surveillance program related to air quality. The objective of this study was to apply risk analysis methods to evaluate the air quality of the city of Salvador and its impact on health, from the perspective of the Environmental Health Surveillance\'s regulatory actions. This study is characterized by science and decision. Two studies were conducted that applied the proposed methods. In the first study, during the hazard identification phase, pollutants were characterized in terms of their chemical composition using a biomonitoring technique as an alternative tool to access the particles present in the urban atmosphere. The analytic techniques of atomic absorption spectrophotometry were used for the detection of metals in the particulate matter, and for the morphologic analysis of these particles, conventional scanning electron microscopy and X-ray microanalysis techniques were used. The chemical composition of the particulate matter was then studied to understand local emissions. In the second study, in addition to contaminant identification and risk characterization, human health exposure was also evaluated. Risk communication strategies were used for the involvement of stakeholders. The observed results of atmospheric contamination in this thesis suggest that the applied tools within the context of risk analysis, in its diverse stages, are viable and present scientific evidence to decision-making, thus contributing new technologies for National Health System, particularly the implementation of a health surveillance program related to air quality

Bases científicas para o entendimento dos efeitos da poluição atmosférica sobre a saúde humana são ainda necessárias em todo o mundo, considerando que os dados locais devem ser utilizados como parâmetro para tomada de decisão e controle da poluição do ar. Países em desenvolvimento carecem de tecnologia para detecção e mensuração dos níveis de poluição do ar, o que dificulta a atualização de legislação sobre padrões da qualidade do ar para o controle das fontes emissoras. Diversas abordagens metodológicas tem sido sugeridas por agências internacionais, no entanto para o contexto local faz-se necessário adaptações que resulte em métodos replicáveis pelas agências brasileiras. No Brasil, o Ministério da Saúde, através da Vigilância em Saúde Ambiental, estimula o desenvolvimento de metodologias que possam viabilizar a implementação do programa de vigilância em saúde relacionada à qualidade do ar. O objetivo deste estudo foi aplicar a metodologia de análise de riscos para avaliar a qualidade do ar na cidade de Salvador e o impacto sobre a saúde, na perspectiva de implantação de ações da Vigilância em Saúde Ambiental. Este estudo se caracteriza como ciência no contexto da ação. Foram realizados dois estudos para aplicação da metodologia proposta. No primeiro estudo, em fase de identificação do perigo, os poluentes foram caracterizados em termos de sua composição química, utilizando a técnica de biomonitoramento como ferramenta alternativa para acessar as partículas presentes na atmosfera urbana. Para a detecção de metais no material particulado foram utilizadas técnicas analíticas de espectrofotometria de absorção atômica e para a análise morfológica destas partículas foram utilizadas técnicas de microscopia eletrônica de varredura convencional e micro análises de raios-x. A composição química do material particulado foi estudada para entendimento das emissões locais. No segundo estudo, além da identificação do contaminante e caracterização do risco foi também avaliado a exposição à saúde humana. Estratégias de comunicação de riscos foram utilizadas para o envolvimento de partes interessadas. Os resultados de contaminação atmosférica observados nesta tese sugerem que as ferramentas aplicadas no contexto da análise de riscos, em suas diversas etapas, são viáveis, apresentando evidências científicas aos tomadores de decisão, e assim contribuindo com novas tecnologias para o SUS, especialmente na implementação de programa em vigilância da saúde relacionada à qualidade do ar / Scientific bases for understanding the effects of atmospheric pollution on human health are still necessary in all parts of the world, considering that local data should be used as a parameter for decision-making and the control of air pollution. Developing countries lack the technology to detect and measure levels of air pollution, making it difficult to update legislation on air quality standards for the control of emission sources. Several methodological approaches have been suggested by international agencies, however for the local context it is necessary to make adjustments that will result in replicable methods across Brazilian agencies. In Brazil, the Ministry of Health, through the Environmental Health Surveillance, stimulates the development of methodologies that can facilitate the implementation of a health surveillance program related to air quality. The objective of this study was to apply risk analysis methods to evaluate the air quality of the city of Salvador and its impact on health, from the perspective of the Environmental Health Surveillance\'s regulatory actions. This study is characterized by science and decision. Two studies were conducted that applied the proposed methods. In the first study, during the hazard identification phase, pollutants were characterized in terms of their chemical composition using a biomonitoring technique as an alternative tool to access the particles present in the urban atmosphere. The analytic techniques of atomic absorption spectrophotometry were used for the detection of metals in the particulate matter, and for the morphologic analysis of these particles, conventional scanning electron microscopy and X-ray microanalysis techniques were used. The chemical composition of the particulate matter was then studied to understand local emissions. In the second study, in addition to contaminant identification and risk characterization, human health exposure was also evaluated. Risk communication strategies were used for the involvement of stakeholders. The observed results of atmospheric contamination in this thesis suggest that the applied tools within the context of risk analysis, in its diverse stages, are viable and present scientific evidence to decision-making, thus contributing new technologies for National Health System, particularly the implementation of a health surveillance program related to air quality

The primary objective of this research is to formulate a methodology of assessing the maximum impact loading condition that will incur onto an aircraft’s landing gear system via Finite Element Analysis (FEA) and appropriately determining its corresponding structural and impact responses to minimize potential design failures during hard landing (abnormal impact) and shock absorption testing. Both static and dynamic loading condition were closely analyzed, compared, and derived through the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) airworthiness regulations and empirical testing data. In this research, a nonlinear transient dynamic analysis is developed and established via NASTRAN advanced nonlinear finite element model (FEM) to simulate the worst-case loading condition. Under the appropriate loading analysis, the eye-bar and contact patch region theory were then utilized to simulate the tire and nose wheel interface more accurately. The open geometry of the nose landing gear was also optimized to minimize the effect of stress concentration. The result of this research is conformed to the FAA’s regulations and bound to have an impact on the design and development of small and large aircraft’s landing gear for both near and distant future.

Preventing cyberterrorism is becoming a necessity for individuals, organizations, and governments. However, current policies focus on technical and managerial aspects without asking for experts and non-experts values and preferences for preventing cyberterrorism. This study employs value focused thinking and public value forum to bare strategic measures and alternatives for complex policy decisions for preventing cyberterrorism. The strategic measures and alternatives are per socio-technical process.

Allocating production volumes across a portfolio of producing assets is a complex optimization problem. Each producing asset possesses different technical attributes (e.g. crude type), facility constraints, and costs. In addition, there are corporate objectives and constraints (e.g. contract delivery requirements). While complex, such a problem can be specified and solved using conventional deterministic optimization methods. However, there is often uncertainty in many of the inputs, and in these cases the appropriate approach is neither obvious nor straightforward. One of the major uncertainties in the oil and gas industry is the commodity price assumption(s). This paper investigates this problem in three major sections: (1) We specify an integrated stochastic optimization model that solves for the optimal production allocation for a portfolio of producing assets when there is uncertainty in commodity prices, (2) We then compare the solutions that result when different price models are used, and (3) We perform a value of information analysis to estimate the value of more accurate price models. The results show that the optimum production allocation is a function of the price model assumptions. However, the differences between models are minor, and thus the value of choosing the “correct” price model, or similarly of estimating a more accurate model, is small. This work falls in the emerging research area of decision-oriented assessments of information value. / text

Introgression of genes from crops into ruderal populations is a multi-step process requiring sympatry, synchronous flowering, chromosomal compatibility, successful pollination and development of the zygote, germination, establishment and reproduction of hybrid progeny. The goal of this thesis was to generate data on as many steps in this process as possible and integrate them into a predictive statistical model to estimate the likelihood of successful introgression under a range of scenarios. Rape (Brassica napus) and wild turnip (B. rapa var. oleifera) were used as a model system. A homozygous dominant mutation in the rape genome conferring herbicide resistance provided a convenient marker for the study of introgression. Potential differences between wild turnip populations from a wide range of geographic locations in New Zealand were examined. Hand pollination established the genetic compatibility of rape and wild turnip and a high potential for gene introgression from rape to wild turnip. Interspecific hybrids were easily generated using wild turnip as the maternal plant, with some minor differences between wild turnip populations. The frequency of successful hybridisation between the two species was higher on the lower raceme. However, the upper raceme produced more dormant interspecific hybrid seed. Field trials, designed to imitate rare rape crop escapes into the ruderal environment, examined the ability of rare rape plants to pollinate wild turnip plants over four summers. At a ratio of 1 rape plant for every 400 wild turnip plants, the incidence of interspecific hybridisation was consistently low (<0.1 to 2.1 % of total seed on wild turnip plants). There was a significant year effect with the first season producing significantly more seed and a greater frequency of interspecific hybrid progeny than the other years. The frequency of interspecific hybrid progeny increases when the ratio of rape: wild turnip plant numbers increases. The relative importance of anemophily and entomophily in the production of interspecific hybrids was examined. Wild turnip plants produced twice as many seeds with bee pollination relative to wind pollination. However, the frequency of interspecific hybrids under wind pollination was nearly twice that for bee pollination. Light reflectance patterns under UV light revealed a marked difference between wild turnip and rape flowers compared to near identical appearance under visible light. The data indicates that bees are able to distinguish between rape and wild turnip flowers and exhibit floral constancy when foraging among populations with these two species. Hybrid survival in the seed bank, germination and seedling establishment in the field are important components of fitness. Seed banks established in the soil after the field trials described above germinated in subsequent spring seasons. The predominantly brassica weed populations were screened for herbicide resistance and the numbers of interspecific hybrids germinating compared to the original frequency in the field trial results. Frequency of interspecific hybrids was reduced in the populations compared to the original seed deposit. Seed with a known frequency of interspecific hybrid seed was sown in a separate trial, and the frequency of interspecific hybrids compared at 0, 4, 6, and 8 weeks after sowing. Poor germination resulted limited competition between seedlings, however the frequency of interspecific hybrids declined over time indicating low plant fitness. There were no significant population effects on any parameters tested. Interspecific hybrids grown in a glasshouse were backcrossed to the parental species and selfed within the plant and within populations. Pollen from the interspecific hybrids was found to have markedly reduced fertility. Interspecific hybrid plants had low female fertility, with the majority (88%) of the pollinated flowers aborting the siliques. Of the remaining siliques, most (98%) had only one to three seeds per silique. Inheritance of the herbicide resistance gene was regular in backcrosses but highly skewed following self pollination with an excess of herbicide-sensitive progeny. Production of a stochastic predictive model integrated the information acquired over the practical work phase of this thesis and utilised the capabilities of @risk, a new application of a risk analysis tool. The three outputs examined were the number of flowering plants resulting from backcrosses to rape and wild turnip and self pollination of the interspecific hybrid progeny. Five scenarios were modelled and all demonstrated the high likelihood of introgression failure in this system. In all scenarios, >75% of simulations resulted in no interspecific hybrid progeny surviving to flowering in the third generation. In all scenarios, and for all three outputs, the seed set on the interspecific hybrids of the second generation was the major factor that limited the number interspecific hybrid progeny surviving to flowering in the third generation.

Thesis (Master of Strategic Studies) -- Army War College, 2006. / Title from title screen (viewed , 2008). "March 8, 2006". "ADA448999"--URL.. Includes bibliographical references. Also issued in paper format.