Pensionsmyndigheten's (the Swedish Pensions Agency) current calculation of the internal rate of return for 7.7 million premium pension savers is both time and resource consuming. This rate of return mirrors the overall performance of the funded part of the pension system and is analyzed internally, but also reported to the public monthly and yearly based on differently sized data samples. This thesis aims to investigate the possibility of utilizing other approaches in order to improve the performance of these calculations. Further, the study aims to verify the results stemming from said calculations and investigate their robustness. In order to investigate competitive matrix methods, a sample of approaches are compared to the more classical numerical methods. The approaches are compared in different scenarios aimed to mirror real practice. The robustness of the results are then analyzed by a stochastic modeling approach, where a small error term is introduced aimed to mimic possible errors which could arise in data management. It is concluded that a combination of Halley's method and the Jacobi-Davidson algorithm is the most robust and high performing method. The proposed method combines the speed and robustness from numerical and matrix methods, respectively. The result show a performance improvement of 550% in time, while maintaining the accuracy of the current server computations. The analysis of error propagation suggests the output error to be less than 0.12 percentage points in 99 percent of the cases, considering an introduced error term of large proportions. In this extreme case, the modeled expected number of individuals with an error exceeding 1 percentage point is estimated to be 212 out of the whole population. / Pensionsmyndighetens nuvarande beräkning av internräntan för 7,7 miljoner pensionssparare är både tid- och resurskrävande. Denna avkastning ger en översikt av hur väl den fonderade delen av pensionssystemet fungerar. Detta analyseras internt men rapporteras även till allmänheten varje månad samt årligen baserat på olika urval av data. Denna uppsats avser att undersöka möjligheten att använda andra tillvägagångssätt för att förbättra prestanda för denna typ av beräkningar. Vidare syftar studien till att verifiera resultaten som härrör från dessa beräkningar och undersöka deras stabilitet. För att undersöka om det finns konkurrerande matrismetoder jämförs ett urval av tillvägagångssätt med de mer klassiska numeriska metoderna. Metoderna jämförs i flera olika scenarier som syftar till att spegla verklig praxis. Stabiliteten i resultaten analyseras med en stokastisk modellering där en felterm införs för att efterlikna möjliga fel som kan uppstå i datahantering. Man drar slutsatsen att en kombination av Halleys metod och Jacobi-Davidson-algoritmen är den mest robusta och högpresterande metoden. Den föreslagna metoden kombinerar hastigheten från numeriska metoder och tillförlitlighet från matrismetoder. Resultatet visar en prestandaförbättring på 550 % i tid, samtidigt som samma noggrannhet som ses i de befintliga serverberäkningarna bibehålls. Analysen av felutbredning föreslår att felet i 99 procent av fallen är mindre än 0,12 procentenheter i det fall där införd felterm har stora proportioner. I detta extrema fall uppskattas det förväntade antalet individer med ett fel som överstiger 1 procentenhet vara 212 av hela befolkningen.

[ES] La Agenda 2030 para el Desarrollo Sostenible establece una serie de retos ambiciosos para la comunidad mundial denominados Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible (ODS). Entre ellos se encuentran retos específicos como el acceso al agua potable y al saneamiento y una mejor planificación de los recursos hídricos, además de objetivos dirigidos con el fin de combatir las desigualdades y la discriminación, entre los cuales se incluyen los siguientes objetivos generales "no dejar a nadie atrás" y "llegar primero a los más rezagados". Hasta la fecha, se ha demostrado que estos retos son difíciles de cumplir, en parte porque son complejos, pero también debido a la inercia política. Por otra parte, las potabilizadoras son capaces de suministrar agua segura para el consumo humano, sin embargo, es posible que su calidad se vea deteriorada a lo largo de su recorrido por el sistema de distribución antes su llegada al consumidor; si el abastecimiento de agua se ve restringido, las posibilidades de degradación de la calidad física, química y, sobre todo, microbiológica a nivel doméstico se incrementan, por ese motivo, para garantizar la calidad del agua se debe asegurar la integridad física, química y cualitativa del agua. Al aplicar los métodos de análisis de riesgos a los sistemas de agua potable para el consumo humano, se está desarrollando como una importante técnica de gestión preventiva, que ya está ofreciendo resultados muy significativos a la hora de anticiparse a eventuales situaciones de peligro, lo que permite intervenir con rapidez y evitar el impacto de los eventos de origen natural contra las infraestructuras y el agua para el consumo humano. En esta tesis se aborda la problemática de la seguridad del agua destinada al consumidor, identificando los fundamentos de la buena gobernanza y proponiendo un nuevo enfoque para llevar a cabo un análisis del riesgo a lo largo de la cadena del agua, integrando la modelización predictiva y las técnicas de árbol de eventos y de fallos. El estudio ha demostrado la gran capacidad del nuevo enfoque para reproducir escenarios reales y evaluar los niveles de ooquistes después del tratamiento, teniendo en cuenta la heterogeneidad de los aportes resultantes de diferentes niveles de ooquistes contenidos en las aguas superficiales, la eficiencia del tratamiento, los controles del proceso y los aportes de agua. El nuevo planteamiento también puede utilizarse para la evaluación de la exposición de otros agentes patógenos en el agua, y en todas las etapas de la cadena del agua, con el fin de evaluar el impacto real de las desviaciones o los fallos en las condiciones del proceso y los controles de seguridad sobre el riesgo para los consumidores provocado por los agentes patógenos. / [CA] L'Agenda 2030 per al desenvolupament Sostenible estableix una sèrie de reptes ambiciosos per a la comunitat mundial denominat Objectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible (ODS). Aquests inclouen reptes com l'accés a l'aigua, el sanejament segur i una millor gestió de l'aigua, igual que objectius per a afrontar la desigualtat i la discriminació incloent propòsits generals per a "no deixar a ningú arrere" i "arribar primer als més ressagats". Fins hui, s'ha demostrat que aquests reptes són difícils de complir, en part perquè són complexos però també a causa de la inèrcia política. D'altra banda, les plantes de tractament d'aigua potable poden proveir aigua segura per al consum humà, però la seua qualitat es pot alternar durant el pas pel Sistema de Distribució d'Aigua abans d'arribar al consumidor; si el proveïment d'aigua és restringit, la possibilitat de deterioració de la qualitat física, química i principalment microbiològica a nivell intradomiciliària s'incrementa havent-se de protegir la integritat física, hidràulica i de qualitat de l'aigua per a garantir l'assegurament del subministrament de l'aigua potable. L'aplicació dels mètodes d'anàlisi de risc aplicats als serveis d'aigua i sanejament s'està convertint en una estratègia imprescindible en la gestió preventiva, que comença a mostrar resultats importants en l'anticipació oportuna de desastres potencials, facilitant les accions anticipades per a enfrontar les amenaces previsibles per a mitigar els impactes dels esdeveniments naturals en la infraestructura d'aigua i sanejament. En aquesta tesi s'aborda la problemàtica de la seguretat de l'aigua destinada al consumidor, identificant els fonaments de la bona governança i proposant un nou enfocament per a dur a terme una anàlisi de risc al llarg de la cadena de l'aigua, integrant la modelització predictiva i les tècniques d'arbre d'esdeveniments i de fallades. L'estudi ha demostrat la gran capacitat del nou enfocament per a reproduir escenaris reals i avaluar els nivells d'ooquistes després del tractament, tenint en compte l'heterogeneïtat de les aportacions resultants de diferents nivells d'ooquistes continguts en les aigües superficials, l'eficiència del tractament, els controls del procés. L'eficiència de la planta, l'eficiència del tractament, els controls del procés i les aportacions d'aigua. El nou plantejament també pot utilitzar-se per a l'avaluació de l'exposició d'altres agents patògens en l'aigua i en totes les etapes de la cadena de l'aigua, amb la finalitat d'avaluar l'impacte real de les desviacions o les fallades en les condicions del procés i els controls de seguretat sobre el risc per als consumidors provocat per agents patògens. / [EN] The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development sets out a series of ambitious challenges for the global community. These Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) include targets for access to safe water and sanitation and improved water management, as well as goals to tackle inequality and discrimination, including overarching proposals to "leave no one behind" and "reach the most disadvantaged first". To date, these are challenges that have proved difficult to meet, partly because they are complex, but also because of political inertia. On the other hand, drinking water treatment plants can provide safe water for human consumption, but its quality can be altered during its passage through the water distribution system before it reaches the consumer; if the water sup-ply is restricted, the possibility of physical, chemical and mainly microbiological quality detection at the household level increases, and the physical, hydraulic and quality integrity of the water must be protected to ensure the safety of the drinking water supply. The application of risk analysis methods applied to water and sanitation ser-vices is becoming an important preventive management strategy, which is be-ginning to show significant results in the timely anticipation of potential disas-ters, facilitating anticipatory actions to address foreseeable hazards and to mit-igate the impacts of natural events on water and sanitation infrastructure. This thesis addresses the issue of consumer water safety by identifying the fundamentals of good governance and proposing a new approach for conduct-ing risk analysis along the water chain, integrating predictive modelling and event and fault tree techniques. The study has demonstrated the high capacity of the new approach to reproduce real scenarios and to evaluate the levels of oocysts after treatment, taking into account the heterogeneity of the inputs resulting from different levels of oocysts contained in the surface water, the efficiency of the treatment, the process controls and the water in-puts. The new approach can also be used for exposure assessment of other pathogens in water, and at all stages of the water chain, to assess the real im-pact of deviations or failures in process conditions and safety controls on the risk to consumers from pathogens. / Kombo Mpindou, GOM. (2023). Aportación a la implantación del análisis de riesgo en los sistemas de distribución del agua: caso del Cryptosporidium para distintos niveles de desarrollo tecnológico en la potabilizadora [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/193340

The interest in modeling non-maturing deposits has skyrocketed ever since thefinancial crisis 2008. Not only from a regulatory and legislative perspective,but also from an investment and funding perspective.Modeling of non-maturing deposits is a very broad subject. In this thesis someof the topics within the subject are investigated, where the greatest focus inon the modeling of the deposit volumes. The main objective is to providethe bank with an analysis of the majority of the topics that needs to be cov-ered when modeling non-maturing deposits. This includes short-rate model-ing using Vasicek’s model, deposit rate modeling using a regression approachand a method proposed by Jarrow and Van Deventer, volume modeling usingSARIMA, SARIMAX and a general additive model, a static replicating port-folio based on Maes and Timmerman’s to model the behaviour of the depositaccounts and finally a liquidity risk model that was suggested by Kalkbrenerand Willing. All of these models have been applied on three different accounttypes: private transaction accounts, savings accounts and corporate savingsaccounts.The results are that, due to the current market, the static replicating portfoliodoes not achieve the desired results. Furthermore, the best volume model forthe data provided is a SARIMA model, meaning the effect of the exogenousvariables are seemingly already embedded in the lagged volume. Finally, theliquidity risk results are plausible and thus deemed satisfactory. / Intresset för att modellera inlåningsvolymer utan en kontrakterad förfallodaghar ökat markant sedan finanskrisen 2008. Inte bara sett utifrån ett perspek-tiv att uppfylla krav som ställs av tillsynsmyndigheter, men också sett utifrånbankens investerings-och finansieringsperspektiv.Målet med det här arbetet är att förse banken med en analys av majoritetenav de olika områdena som man behöver ta hänsyn till när man ska model-lera inlåningar utan förfallodatum, men med ett fokus på volymmodellering.I den här rapporten modelleras räntor (kortränta och kontoränta), kontovoly-merna, kontobeteendet samt likviditetsrisken. Detta görs med hjälp av Vasicekför korträntan, en regressionsmetod samt en metod som föreslagits av Jarrowoch Van Deventer för kontoräntan, SARIMA, SARIMAX och en generell ad-ditiv regressionsmetod för volymerna, en statisk replikeringsportfölj baseradpå Maes och Timmermans modell för att imitera kontona och slutligen så mo-delleras likviditetsrisken med ett ramverk som föreslagits av Kalkbrener ochWilling. Alla dessa nämnda modeller appliceras, där det är möjligt, på de treolika kontotyperna: privatkonton, sparkonton samt företagssparkonto.Resultatet är att räntemodelleringen samt replikeringsportföljen inte ger ade-kvata resultat på grund av den rådande marknaden. Vidare så ger en SARIMA-modell den bästa prediktionen, vilket gör att slutsatsen är att andra exogenavariabler redan är inneslutna i den fördröjda volymvariabeln. Avslutningsvisså ger likviditetsmodellen tillfredsställande resultat och antas vara rimlig.

Målet med detta projekt har varit att utveckla en monteringsvänlig och kostnadseffektiv ljuddiffuser, en komponent som inte ska påverka ljudnivån och luftflödet för mycket, tillskillnad från den befintliga lösning som idag används i 3nine AB:s oljedimavskiljare. Examensarbetet följer den produktutvecklingsprocess som redogörs i boken Produktutveckling – Konstruktion och design av Karl T. Ulrich och Steven D. Eppinger. Där arbetet har anpassats för tidsramen på 10 veckor och delats upp i fyra faser. Fas1 – Förstudie, Fas 2 – faktainsamling, Fas 3 – Genomförande och Fas 4 – Rapportering. Den lösning som används idag består av fem vikta bitar sträckmetall som har sytts ihop med ståltråd, ljuddiffusern tar lång tid att montera ihop och att montera ned i maskinen. De fem vikta bitarna sträckmetall har vassa kanter efter klippning som försvårar monteringen ytterligare. En ljuddiffuser har en kostnad på 100 kr/st att framställa. För denna lösning togs mätvärden i 3nine AB:s verkstad fram som agerar som referensmätvärden, monteringstid – 333 [s], ljudnivå – 68 [dB], luftflöde – 319 [m ³/h] och DFA – index (mätvärde för monteringsvänlighet) – 5,4 %. Där 100 % ses som optimal monteringsvänlighet och högre DFA-index leder till reducerade kostnader. Då luft strömmar genom maskinen så påverkar detta mätvärdena och möjlig design av ny prototyper, men strömningslära är kunskaper som vi saknar och detta analyser med avseende på detta avgränsades bort. Genom Idéutvecklingsprocesser som Brainstorming, 6-3-5 Brainwritning, Morfologiskmatris, Pughmatris, konceptskisser, Virtuella koncept (3D-CAD) och friformsframställning (3D-utskrivning av prototyp) så togs fem prototyper fram som sedan testades för monteringstid, ljudnivå, luftflöde och DFA-index. Dessa tester resulterade i att det var en prototyp som utmärkte sig med förbättrade resultat jämfört med referensmätvärdena av befintliga ljuddiffusern. Mätvärden för prototypen ”45° väggen”, monteringstid – 16 [s], ljudnivå – 65 [dB], luftflöde – 342 [m ³/h] och DFA – index (mätvärde för monteringsvänlighet) – 93 %. Risk – och FEM-analys genomfördes på prototypen för att identifiera svagheter i konstruktionen, lösningar på dessa rekommenderas i form av små förändringar som t.ex. rundningar vid hörn. Dessa mätvärden redogör att den framtagna lösningen är bättre än dagens lösning och rekommenderas att implementeras och vidareutvecklas av företaget / The aim of this project has been to improve the existing noise diffuser used currently today in the oil-separatingmachines developed by 3nine AB. By reducing noise levels, increasing the air flow, increasing the “ease of assembly” and making it more cost effective. The thesis follows the product development process described in the book “Product Development - Construction and Design” by Karl T. Ulrich and Steven D. Eppinger. The work was adapted for a 10-week timeframe and divided into four phases. Phase 1 - Pre-Study, Phase 2 – Information gathering, Phase 3 - Implementation and Phase 4 - Reporting. The solution used today consists of five folded pieces of stretch metal that have been sewn together with steel wire, the noise diffuser takes a long time to assemble and to fit into the machine. The five folded pieces of stretch metal have sharp edges after cutting, which further complicates the assembly. The production cost for each diffuser is 100 kronor. For the present solution, the measurement values taken at 3nine AB's workshop were set as reference values, assembly time - 333 [s], noise level - 68 [dB], airflow - 319 [m³ / h] and DFA-index (measurement value for ease of assembly) - 5.4%. DFA-index when 100% is seen as the optimal ease of assembly and a higher DFA-index leads to reduced costs. As air flows through the machine, this affects the measured values and possible design of new prototypes, but fluid mechanics is one knowledge we lacked and therefor analysis of this was not possible and delimited. Through Idea Development Processes such as Brainstorming, 6-3-5 Brainwriting, Morphological Matrix, Pugh matrix, Concept Sketches, Virtual Concepts (3D-CAD) and Rapid prototyping (3D-prototype printing), five prototypes were produced, then tested for assembly time, noise level, airflow and DFA -index. These tests resulted in a prototype that featured improved results compared to the reference values of the existing noise diffuser. Measurement values for prototype "45° wall" where assembly time - 16 [s], noise level - 65 [dB], airflow - 342 [m³ / h] and DFA index - 93%. Risk-analysis and FEA was carried out on the same prototype to identify weaknesses in the design. The solutions to these weaknesses are recommended in the form of small design changes such as rounded sharp corners. These measured values state that the solution developed is better than today's solution and is recommended to be implemented and further developed by the company.

Inland recreational fisheries has grown philosophically and scientifically to consider economic and sociopolitical aspects (non-biological) in addition to the biological. However, integrating biological and non-biological aspects of inland fisheries has been challenging. Thus, an opportunity exists to develop approaches and tools which operationalize planning and decision-making processes which include biological and non-biological aspects of a fishery. This dissertation expands the idea that a core set of goals and objectives is shared among and within inland fisheries agencies; that many routine operations of inland fisheries managers can be regimented or standardized; and the novel concept that current information and operations can be used to improve decision making through structured decision making and adaptive management approaches at the agency scale. In CHAPTER II, my results show that the goals of inland fisheries agencies tend to be more similar than different but have expanded and diversified since the 1970s. I suggest that changes in perspectives and communication technology, as well as provisions within nationwide funding mechanisms, have led to goals becoming more homogenous across the USA and more diverse within each bureau. In CHAPTER III, I found that standardized collection and careful curation of data has allowed one inland fisheries bureau to acquire a large fish and fisheries database and that managers use this database to summarize common fish population parameters and indices, craft objectives, and set targets. The regimentation of data management and analysis has helped managers within the inland fisheries bureau to assess fish populations and fisheries efficiently and effectively across waterbodies within their districts and state. In CHAPTER IV, I extend CHAPTERS II and III to show that biological and non-biological management objectives and their associated measurable attributes and management actions can be synthesized into a common set of decision elements. I demonstrate how common decision elements enable managers to easily structure decisions and help to address common problems at the agency scale. Using a subset of common decision elements, I demonstrate how existing agency operations (e.g., monitoring) can be used to expedite learning and improve decision making for a common problem faced by managers in multiple, similar systems.

В 1-й главе рассмотрены теоретические и методические основы разработки и вывода на промышленный рынок нового продукта. Во 2-й главе проведен анализ организации ООО «Фармпласт», анализ рынка нового оборудования, анализ патентного ландшафта, были выявлены ключевые проблемы и возможности при реализации изделия. В 3-й главе представлен инвестиционный проект по разработке и реализации нового оборудования, приведен расчет себестоимости изделия, рассчитаны затраты на реализацию и экономический эффект, определены возможные риски, даны рекомендации по снижению их эффекта. / Chapter 1 discusses the theoretical and methodological foundations of the development and introduction of a new product to the industrial market. In the 2nd chapter, the organization of Farmplast LLC was analyzed, the market analysis of new equipment, the analysis of the patent landscape were identified, key problems and opportunities for the sale of the product were identified. The 3rd chapter presents an investment project for the development and sale of new equipment, gives a calculation of the cost of the product, calculated costs for implementation and economic effect, identified possible risks, made recommendations to reduce their effect.

Denna rapport inleds med övergripande genomgång av dagens gällande regelverk, Eurokod, medförklaring av olika begrepp som är relaterade till ämnet robusthet. Det görs en genomgång av huren byggnadskonstruktör bör beakta robustheten med förslag vid olika dimensioneringssituationerenligt norm. Eftersom normen inte alltid är tydlig, så redovisas en tolkning av normen (inkl. EKS11) i enlighet med fib (2012). Vidare så förtydligas även innebörden av konsekvensklasser, riskanalyser,utformning och dimensionering av förband och dragband enligt norm. I dettaexamensarbete redogörs också för de egenskaper som är viktiga för att bärverk ska kunna motståexceptionella förhållanden. Beräkningsexempel ges, med förslag på utformning och placering avförband för att uppnå en viss robusthet enligt norm. Dagens regelverk är många gångerbristfälliga och oklara. Exempelvis finns ingen dimensioneringsprocedur för hur en tillräckligrobusthet uppnås, vilket nödvändigtvis inte alltid är den minimala robustheten som normen ger.Det framgår heller inte hur bärverken bör utformas för att uppnå robusthet och redundans,speciellt för prefabricerade element-, där tillräcklig robusthet många gånger kan vara svårt elleromöjligt att uppnå. Normens dimensioneringssituationer grundar sig på statiska lastmodeller ochhuruvida dessa ger tillräcklig robusthet eller inte, läggs det ingen fokus på. Robusthetens storlekbaserar sig mer eller mindre på vedertagna schablonmässiga värden. En nackdel med detta äratt förutsättningar i byggnader kan förändras med tiden vilket kan leda till att dagensdimensionering blir otillräcklig. Detta belyser faran med att vara nöjd med dagens förenkladedimensioneringsverktyg, eftersom den bakomliggande fysiken då lätt kommer i skymundan, elleri värsta fall, faller i glömska. Ett exempel på detta är dimensionering av väsentliga bärverk (keyelement)som är avgörande för byggnadens stabilitet eller för att motverka fortskridande rasenligt SS-EN 1991-1-7. Väsentliga bärverk dimensioneras för en statiskt jämnt utbredd last på34 kN/m² som är ett uppskattat värde utifrån en olyckshändelse med en gasexplosion i RonanPoint (Storbritannien). Värdet härstammar ifrån värdet 5 psi (gasol/hushållsgas kan ge ensprängkraft på 2,5 psi) och man kan fundera på om detta värde är lämpligt att använda i Sverige,då nästan inga gasspisar används i bostäder idag. I detta examensarbete beskrivs övergripandebärverkets dynamiska respons. Det är vanligt att byggnadskonstruktörer många gånger intebesitter kunskaper om dynamiska laster, bärverkens dynamiska respons och ibland icke-linjäraanalyser. Exceptionell last som är ett samlingsnamn för flera olyckslaster så som explosion,påkörning (från fordon, tåg, fartyg etc.), brand, häftiga helikopterlandningar etc. I dettaexamensarbete har valts att lägga fokus på okända olyckslaster och en känd, vanligtförekommande olyckslast (påkörningslast). / This report begins with an overall review of the current regulations, Eurocode, and explanations ofvarious concepts related to the topic of robustness. A review of how a building designer shouldconsider the robustness with proposals for different design situations according to the guidelines isalso presented. Since the guidelines are not always clear, an interpretation of its application (incl.EKS 11) in accordance with fib (2012) is given. Furthermore, the meaning of consequence classes,risk analyzes, design of tension ties is clarified. In this thesis it is discussed what properties areimportant for the structures to withstand exceptional loads. Calculation examples and placement oftension ties to achieve a certain robustness are presented. Current regulations are often insufficientand unclear. For example, there is no procedure for how to achieve enough robustness, which isnot always the minimum robustness that the code prescribes. It is also not clear how the structuresshould be designed to achieve robustness and redundancy, especially for prefabricated elements,where enough robustness often can be difficult or impossible to achieve. The current code is basedon static load models, and whether they provide enough robustness are not considered. The robustnessis based on accepted code values. One disadvantage is that conditions in buildings can changeover time, which can cause current design methods to be insufficient. This highlights the danger ofbeing satisfied with current simplified codes and guidelines, since the underlying physics can easilyfall into oblivion. An example of this is the design of key elements that are crucial for the stabilityof buildings or to withstand progressive collapse according to SS-EN 1991-1-7. Key elementsare designed for a statically uniformly distributed load of 34 kN/m², which is an estimatedvalue from an accident, where the value reflects the explosion load from a gas explosion inRonan Point (United Kingdom). The value stands for 5 psi and one can wonder if this value issuitable to use in Sweden, since almost no gas stoves are used anymore in housing today. Thisthesis describes overall the dynamic response of a structure. It is common that building designersoften do not have knowledge of dynamic loads, the dynamic response and sometimes non-linearanalyzes. Exceptional load is a collective name for several accident loads such as explosion,collision (from vehicles, trains, ships etc.), fire, violent helicopter landings etc. In this thesisit is chosen to focus on unknown accident loads and one com-mon, known accident load (impactload.

To refine our knowledge and to adequately test hypotheses concerning theoretical and applied aspects of invasion biology, successful and unsuccessful invaders should be compared. This study investigated insect establishment patterns by comparing the climatic preferences and biological attributes of two groups of polyphagous insect species that are constantly intercepted at New Zealand's border. One group of species is established in New Zealand (n = 15), the other group comprised species that are not established (n = 21). In the present study the two groups were considered to represent successful and unsuccessful invaders. To provide background for interpretation of results of the comparative analysis, global areas that are climatically analogous to sites in New Zealand were identified by an eco-climatic assessment model, CLIMEX, to determine possible sources of insect pest invasion. It was found that south east Australia is one of the regions that are climatically very similar to New Zealand. Furthermore, New Zealand shares 90% of its insect pest species with that region. South east Australia has close trade and tourism links with New Zealand and because of its proximity a new incursion in that analogous climate should alert biosecurity authorities in New Zealand. Other regions in western Europe and the east coast of the United States are also climatically similar and share a high proportion of pest species with New Zealand. Principal component analysis was used to investigate patterns in insect global distributions of the two groups of species in relation to climate. Climate variables were reduced to temperature and moisture based principal components defining four climate regions, that were identified in the present study as, warm/dry, warm/wet, cool/dry and cool/moist. Most of the insect species established in New Zealand had a wide distribution in all four climate regions defined by the principal components and their global distributions overlapped into the cool/moist, temperate climate where all the New Zealand sites belong. The insect species that have not established in New Zealand had narrow distributions within the warm/wet, tropical climates. Discriminant analysis was then used to identify which climate variables best discriminate between species presence/absence at a site in relation to climate. The discriminant analysis classified the presence and absence of most insect species significantly better than chance. Late spring and early summer temperatures correctly classified a high proportion of sites where many insect species were present. Soil moisture and winter rainfall were less effective discriminating the presence of the insect species studied here. Biological attributes were compared between the two groups of species. It was found that the species established in New Zealand had a significantly wider host plant range than species that have not established. The lower developmental threshold temperature was on average, 4°C lower for established species compared with non-established species. These data suggest that species that establish well in New Zealand have a wide host range and can tolerate lower temperatures compared with those that have not established. No firm conclusions could be drawn about the importance of propagule pressure, body size, fecundity or phylogeny for successful establishment because data availability constrained sample sizes and the data were highly variable. The predictive capacity of a new tool that has potential for eco-climatic assessment, the artificial neural network (ANN), was compared with other well used models. Using climate variables as predictors, artificial neural network predictions were compared with binary logistic regression and CLIMEX. Using bootstrapping, artificial neural networks predicted insect presence and absence significantly better than the binary logistic regression model. When model prediction success was assessed by the kappa statistic there were also significant differences in prediction performance between the two groups of study insects. For established species, the models were able to provide predictions that were in moderate agreement with the observed data. For non-established species, model predictions were on average only slightly better than chance. The predictions of CLIMEX and artificial neural networks when given novel data, were difficult to compare because both models have different theoretical bases and different climate databases. However, it is clear that both models have potential to give insights into invasive species distributions. Finally the results of the studies in this thesis were drawn together to provide a framework for a prototype pest risk assessment decision support system. Future research is needed to refine the analyses and models that are the components of this system.

Research in risk awareness has been relatively neglected in the health informatics literature, which tends largely to examine project managers’ perspectives of risk awareness; very few studies explicitly address the perspectives held by senior executives such as directors. Another limitation evident in the current risk literature is that studies are often based on American data and/or they are restricted to American culture. Both factors highlight the need to examine how senior executives (i.e., directors) who oversee or direct eHealth projects in Canada perceive risk awareness. This research explores and discusses the perspectives of risk awareness (i.e., identification, analysis, and prioritization) held by directors and project managers who implement Canadian eHealth projects. Semi-structured interviews with nine directors and project managers uncovered six key distinctions in these two groups’ awareness of risk. First, all project managers valued transparency over anonymity, whereas directors believed that an anonymous reporting system for communicating risks had merit. Secondly, most directors emphasized the importance of evidence-based planning and decision making when balancing risks and opportunities, an aspect none of the project managers voiced. Thirdly, while project managers noted that the level of risk tolerance may evolve from being risk-averse to risk-neutral, directors believed that risk tolerance evolved toward risk-seeking. Directors also noted the importance of employing risk officers, a view that was not shared by project managers. Directors also believed the risk of too little end-user engagement and change management was the most important risk, whereas project managers ranked it as the least important. Finally, when directors and project managers were asked to identify and define the root cause(s) of eHealth risks, directors identified the complexity of health care industry, while project managers attributed it to political pressure and a lack of resources where eHealth projects are concerned. This research proposes that the varied perspectives of risk awareness held by directors and project managers must be considered and integrated to properly align expectations and build partnerships for successful eHealth project outcomes. Understanding risk awareness offers a means to systematically identify and analyze the complex nature of eHealth projects by embracing uncertainties, thereby enabling forward thinking (i.e., staying one step ahead of risks) and the ability to prevent avoidable risks and seize opportunities. / Graduate / 0723 / 0489 / 0454 / randbpark@gmail.com

Atmospheric features, such as tropical cyclones, act as a driving mechanism for many of the major hazards affecting coastal areas around the world. Accurate and efficient quantification of tropical cyclone surge hazard is essential to the development of resilient coastal communities, particularly given continued sea level trend concerns. Recent major tropical cyclones that have impacted the northeastern portion of the United States have resulted in devastating flooding in New York City, the most densely populated city in the US. As a part of national effort to re-evaluate coastal inundation hazards, the Federal Emergency Management Agency used the Joint Probability Method to re-evaluate surge hazard probabilities for Flood Insurance Rate Maps in the New York – New Jersey coastal areas, also termed the New York Bight. As originally developed, this method required many combinations of storm parameters to statistically characterize the local climatology for numerical model simulation. Even though high-performance computing efficiency has vastly improved in recent years, researchers have utilized different “Optimal Sampling” techniques to reduce the number of storm simulations needed in the traditional Joint Probability Method. This manuscript presents results from the simulation of over 350 synthetic tropical cyclones designed to produce significant surge in the New York Bight using the hydrodynamic Advanced Circulation numerical model, bypassing the need for Optimal Sampling schemes. This data set allowed for a careful assessment of joint probability distributions utilized for this area and the impacts of current assumptions used in deriving new flood-risk maps for the New York City area.