A presente dissertação tem como objetivo endereçar a relação existente entre a formulação teórica em estratégia marítima e o surgimento de paradigmas de desenvolvimento de políticas marítimas diversos, quais sejam de Supremacia Marítima e Segurança Marítima. Nesse sentido, o trabalho discorre sobre a evolução do pensamento estratégico marítimo argumentando que esta evolução do pensamento na conceituação, elaboração e refinamento dos elementos que constituem o Poder Marítimo e a Estratégia Marítima, permitiram a multiplicação de abordagens, e o estabelecimento de paradigmas para a implementação de políticas marítimas diferentes, especificas às necessidades e objetivos dos diferentes atores, que por sua vez, remetem às abordagens conceituais e teóricas. Para isto o trabalho percorre e organiza cronologicamente o desenvolvimento do pensamento em Estratégia Marítima desde o final do século XIX, até a atualidade, definido pelo recorte temporal (1890-2013). Em seu segundo momento o trabalho discorre, através da depuração e análise de casos das formulações políticas marítimas desenvolvidas em uma série definida de países em dois recortes temporais, quais sejam, EUA e URSS na Guerra Fria (1945-1980), e EUA, China e Austrália no pós- Guerra Fria (2000-2013), inferir as relações entre a formulação política empírica e suas raízes conceituais. O trabalho conclui que há uma relação direta entre a implementação de políticas marítimas com autores e conceitos específicos da Estratégia Marítima, sendo possível o estabelecimento de Paradigmas múltiplos para a interpretação e orientação da formulação e desenvolvimento de políticas marítimas. / This dissertation aims to address the relationship between the theoretical formulation in maritime strategy and the development of paradigms for different maritime policies, namely Maritime Supremacy and Maritime Security. In this sense, the work discusses the development of maritime strategic thinking arguing that the evolution of thinking in the conceptualization, development and refinement of the elements that constitute the Sea Power and Maritime Strategy, allowed the proliferation of approaches, and the establishment of paradigms for the implementation different maritime policies for specific needs and objectives of the different stakeholders, which in turn, refer to the conceptual and theoretical approaches. To do that, this essay studies and chronologically organizes the development of the maritime strategy thinking since the late nineteenth century to the present, defined by the time frame (1890-2013) . On a second part the paper discusses, through case analysis of maritime policy formulations developed in a defined number of countries in two time frames, namely , the U.S. and USSR during the Cold War (1945-1980) , and the U.S., China and Australia in the post-Cold War scenario (2000-2013), to infer the relationships between empirical policy formulation and its conceptual roots. The paper concludes that there is a direct relationship between the implementation of maritime policies with theoretical authors and specific concepts of Maritime Strategy, been possible to establish multiple paradigms to guide the interpretation and orientation for maritime policies’ formulation and development.

A presente dissertação tem como objetivo endereçar a relação existente entre a formulação teórica em estratégia marítima e o surgimento de paradigmas de desenvolvimento de políticas marítimas diversos, quais sejam de Supremacia Marítima e Segurança Marítima. Nesse sentido, o trabalho discorre sobre a evolução do pensamento estratégico marítimo argumentando que esta evolução do pensamento na conceituação, elaboração e refinamento dos elementos que constituem o Poder Marítimo e a Estratégia Marítima, permitiram a multiplicação de abordagens, e o estabelecimento de paradigmas para a implementação de políticas marítimas diferentes, especificas às necessidades e objetivos dos diferentes atores, que por sua vez, remetem às abordagens conceituais e teóricas. Para isto o trabalho percorre e organiza cronologicamente o desenvolvimento do pensamento em Estratégia Marítima desde o final do século XIX, até a atualidade, definido pelo recorte temporal (1890-2013). Em seu segundo momento o trabalho discorre, através da depuração e análise de casos das formulações políticas marítimas desenvolvidas em uma série definida de países em dois recortes temporais, quais sejam, EUA e URSS na Guerra Fria (1945-1980), e EUA, China e Austrália no pós- Guerra Fria (2000-2013), inferir as relações entre a formulação política empírica e suas raízes conceituais. O trabalho conclui que há uma relação direta entre a implementação de políticas marítimas com autores e conceitos específicos da Estratégia Marítima, sendo possível o estabelecimento de Paradigmas múltiplos para a interpretação e orientação da formulação e desenvolvimento de políticas marítimas. / This dissertation aims to address the relationship between the theoretical formulation in maritime strategy and the development of paradigms for different maritime policies, namely Maritime Supremacy and Maritime Security. In this sense, the work discusses the development of maritime strategic thinking arguing that the evolution of thinking in the conceptualization, development and refinement of the elements that constitute the Sea Power and Maritime Strategy, allowed the proliferation of approaches, and the establishment of paradigms for the implementation different maritime policies for specific needs and objectives of the different stakeholders, which in turn, refer to the conceptual and theoretical approaches. To do that, this essay studies and chronologically organizes the development of the maritime strategy thinking since the late nineteenth century to the present, defined by the time frame (1890-2013) . On a second part the paper discusses, through case analysis of maritime policy formulations developed in a defined number of countries in two time frames, namely , the U.S. and USSR during the Cold War (1945-1980) , and the U.S., China and Australia in the post-Cold War scenario (2000-2013), to infer the relationships between empirical policy formulation and its conceptual roots. The paper concludes that there is a direct relationship between the implementation of maritime policies with theoretical authors and specific concepts of Maritime Strategy, been possible to establish multiple paradigms to guide the interpretation and orientation for maritime policies’ formulation and development.

País de território misto, marcado a um só tempo pela continentalidade e pela maritimidade, o Brasil tem, na análise dos clássicos da teoria geopolítica relacionados ao poder naval, na pessoa de Alfred Mahan e na teoria do poder terrestre, desenvolvida por Halford Mackinder, importantes questões para a discussão de sua visão estratégica contemporânea, num contexto em que há um importante aumento da estatura política e econômica do país no cenário mundial. Neste sentido, a presente Dissertação busca, após a revisão dos conceitos principais dos dois teóricos clássicos citados, identificar aspectos relevantes da evolução recente e das grandes tendências do cenário internacional, bem como do curso do pensamento estratégico brasileiro. Como conclusão, o estudo busca relacionar estes debates aos documentos oficiais recentes publicados na área de Defesa Nacional que esboçam a visão geopolítica e estratégica contemporânea do Brasil. / A country of mixed territory, marked both of a continental extension and by a long cost on the sea, Brazil has, in the analysis of classical geopolitical theory related to sea power in the person of Alfred Mahan and on the theory of land power, developed by Halford Mackinder, important questions for discussion of its contemporary strategic vision, in a context where there is a significant increase in political and economic stature of the country on the world scenery. In this sense, this thesis seeks after a review of the main concepts of the two classical theorists cited, identify relevant aspects of recent developments and major trends on the international scene, as well as the course of the Brazilian strategic thinking. In conclusion, the study seeks to relate these discussions to official documents published in the recent National Defense field, outlining the geopolitical and strategic vision of contemporary Brazil.

This thesis presents an analysis and confrontation of the classical and current strategic naval thinking aimed to discover whether the classical theories of naval power are still relevant for the current strategic thinking of the United States of America and operational conduct of the U.S. Navy. This is done by creating a theoretical analytical framework based on the analysis of the works of two chosen classical naval thinkers Admiral A.T. Mahan and Sir Julian S. Corbett. This theoretical framework is then applied to the analysis of the current American strategic documents: National Security Strategy, National Military Strategy and Naval Strategy. By applying the theoretical framework to the analysis of these documents, the thesis will confirm or disproof the relevance of the classical naval thought to the current one. The thesis further continues to apply the theoretical framework to the part of the thesis, which analyses the Pacific Fleet of the United States and their area of responsibility in order to identify the strategic challenges that the Pacific Fleet encounters in its area of responsibility. Further analysis is focused on identifying and evaluating the reactions of the Pacific Fleet to the identified challenges.

No description available.

自2009年美國提出重返亞洲(Pivot to Asia)的主張後，其對於東亞地區的注意力明顯提高，對區域間的盟友如菲律賓、日本，也加強了各式援助與安全保證。與此同時，隨著中國自改革開放後實力提升，對於向外發展的需求也日益提升。在此過程中，海權的發展，對其而言至關重要，然而中國所面對的是對其發展抱持疑慮的周邊環境。儘管中國強調和平發展原則，然他國仍對其擴展影響力感到不安，其中美國亦將中國認為是潛在的挑戰者，故而採取支持周邊國家的方式限制中國，使中國在近年的海上爭議中與他國呈現僵持的局面。 本研究主要以Robert Jervis 的認知理論為研究途徑，探討中美在互動中是否產生特定的機制，及對於中國海權發展影響。本研究發現，由認知的角度切入，中美兩國在互動過程中，確有機制存在，而主要起始點為兩國對於中國身分認知是否相符，若是肯定的答案，則兩國對於中國海權的認知將產生理性相符的結果。然而當兩國認知存在差距時，將會導向以非理性相符的態度看待中國海權，中國認為其是良性發展，但現實中卻是造成他國不安；美國認為限制中國符合自身利益，忽略中國和平發展的意圖，形成兩國皆將主觀認知加之於客觀不相容的現實的情況。當兩者的非理性相符認知碰撞的情況下，以本研究的釣魚台爭端為例，將使中國在向外海權發展中，尤其是對海洋領土的主張受到阻礙。 / Since the claiming of “Pivot to Asia”, the U.S. enhanced its support and security insurance toward alliance in East Asia as well. Meanwhile, with the growing of its strength, China’s demand of reaching outward also keeps rising. During this process, the developing of sea power plays an important role. However, the environment which China facing is not as supportive as it expected. Despite its emphasis on peaceful development, there is still anxiety in other countries, especially the U.S. which considers China as possible challenger, thus supporting countries in order to restrict China, leading to stalemate in recent dispute on sea issue. Using theory of perception of Robert Jervis as main approach, in order to investigate the mechanism between Sino-U.S. interaction, also its influence on China’s sea power . We find out that there truly is mechanism during the process , and the main point is difference of cognition on China’s identity. If the cognition of the two countries are corresponded, the result of perception on China’s sea power rational cognitive consistency. When perception gap occurs, it will lead to the result of irrational cognitive consistency, which China considers its development as benign, causing the feeling of threatening in reality. In the other hand, the U.S. believes that setting restraint on China brings benefits, thus ignoring China’s true intention, which form the situation of adding subjective perception on contradictive reality. As the Diaoyu Island dispute in the thesis, China’s sea power meets obstacle when the irrational cognitive consistency collapsed.

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / This thesis examines a 2015 Marine Expeditionary Brigade scheme of maneuver as the baseline scenario for a commercial logistics support software program called SEAWAY. Modifications to this scenario are conducted using a designed experiment in order to explore how the plan characteristics relate to eleven specified input factors. Multiple regression analysis is used to fit models to the resulting data for three different measures of performance: Total Aircraft Sorties, Total Aircraft Sortie Time and Total Aircraft Tons. The results suggest the plan performance is predicted well by a small subset of the factors and their interactions. One implication of this work is a better understanding of which factors are key determinants of the plan characteristics for variations on this specific base scenario. By using these fitted models, the number of SEAWAY runs needed to identify acceptable plans should decrease dramatically. The approach in this thesis provides a blueprint for similar analyses of other scenarios by demonstrating how information gained from models fit during an exploration phase might allow the logistician to quickly determine factor settings that yield an acceptable plan once details of an operation become available. Finally, working with the SEAWAY developers provided them with some new insights. / Lieutenant Commandeer, United States Navy

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / Current network administrators use network management software to monitor and control elements within a network. This is largely a manual process since managers must interrogate devices individually and evaluate performance statistics manually. The systems provide multiple views on network data but lack capabilities that allow operators to visualize network performance. Since personnel are required to identify problems, interpret potential solutions, and decide on appropriate corrective measures without automatic assistance, maintaining and solving problems for a network can be time-consuming and complex significantly reducing network efficiency. Since FORCENET is a heterogeneous concept that combines various C4I networks, sensors, weapon systems, and platforms, a new model must be developed for network operations. This paper researches an improved model for fleet network operations management for distributed sea-based forces using existing technologies. Combining a collaborative tool, Decision Support System (DSS), and Augmented Reality (AR) imagery transforms Naval information network management from a "minimum threshold" to an "operations fusion" perspective. Little is known about AR technologies, but the potential exists for virtual network operations centers that can remotely direct networks for sea and shore assets through collaborative efforts. The product of this paper will serve as a baseline for network operations in the network centric environment. / Lieutenant, United States Naval Reserve

進入全球化的21世紀，對於海上安全議題，個別國家已經無法獨自處理。海上安全議題所牽涉的範圍相當廣泛，尤其是必須面對傳統的與非傳統安全所交織而成的威脅，而這些威脅將對國家安全產生重大影響，因為海洋環境的安全，關係到世界各國的生存發展，如果海洋受到威脅，將對世界政治與經濟安全產生強烈衝擊，並嚴重危害人類社會秩序與穩定。 自1982年聯合國《海洋法公約》公布後，各沿海國家紛紛競逐海洋領土，引發區域內利益衝突，我國為一海洋國家，生存發展必須仰賴海上，當然也受到衝擊，舉凡海洋領土、海上交通、貿易、能源礦藏、漁業資源保育、環境保護等事項，均受到各國海權擴張的影響，囿於我國政治地位及地理環境的特殊性，周邊國家均不願正視我國的存在事實，加上專屬經濟海域與各國嚴重重疊因素，至今無法循正常外交管道協議劃界，進而衍生 “海洋領土爭議”、“漁權爭端”、“海域資源開發與探勘”及“海上犯罪”等影響我國家安全之問題。 目前各國在處理海洋爭端時，用和平與對話的方式是當今現代國家最高指導原則，但其核心仍然離不開海洋控制，所以發展強大的海上武裝力量仍將是實現海權必要步驟和標誌。但是，若動用海軍來處理海上非軍事面向的衝突時，將可能引發戰爭。因此，若要維護國家海權伸張以及降低軍事衝突的可能性，擁有一支足以擔負起海上安全任務、確保國家利益卻又不帶軍事色彩的海域執法機關是不可或缺的，惟有建構強大海上執法實力，我國海上安全與海洋權益才能獲得確保。本論文從中共、韓國、日本、菲律賓與越南等周邊國家，比較我國與各國在海洋事務之推展及海上執法機關能量之現況，發掘問題、分析檢討不足之處，進而提出符合我國國家安全與區域海上安全的對策。 / Maritime security is beyond the ability of each individual country in an era of globalization in 21st century as it involves extensive scope of topics especially for traditional and non-traditional threats they need to face, in which these threats will cause major impact on the national safety as the safety of marine environment is associated with survival and development of various countries in the world, there will be strong impact on the global politics, economy and safety and will severely endanger social order and stability of human beings once the ocean is being threatened. Since “Oceans and Law of the Sea”was announced by the United Nations in 1982, the various coastal countries have been competing for the marine territory and caused conflict of interests within the region, Taiwan is a marine country which relies on the sea for its survival and development and will by all means be affected. Those which are associated with marine territory, marine traffic, trade, energy & mineral resources, fishery resources care, environmental protection matters will be all affected by sea power expansion of various countries. Due to the particularity of our political status and geography, the peripheral countries all ignore the existence of Taiwan, and also, the territorial sea of Taiwan is overlapping with various countries, have led to unavailability of marking off the territory through normal diplomatic channels and further caused “sovereignty of marine territory dispute”, “fishing right dispute”, “resource development & investigation of territorial sea” and “cross-border” crime at sea and other issues that will affect our national security. Currently, the various countries follow principles of peace and conversation when dealing with maritime disputes and mainly stay with maritime control; therefore, developing strong marine force is necessary step to take and a symbol to realize sea power. However, it may cause war if using the navy to handle the non-military conflict at sea, therefore, it is indispensable to have a maritime law enforcement authority that is capability of taking the responsibility of maritime security, ensuring national interest without military influence if you’d like to protect the expansion of sea power of a nation and minimize the military conflict. Only having strong capability in maritime law enforcement will ensure maritime security and marine benefits of Taiwan, in which this paper proceeds comparisons of PRC, Korea, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam and other peripheral countries with Taiwan in terms of promotion of marine affairs and current situation of marine law enforcement authorities so as to discover problems, analyze shortcomings, and to further propose countermeasures that comply with our national security and regional maritime security.

冷戰結束之後，亞太地區的情勢因蘇聯內部共黨勢力的瓦解，而美國也因內部經濟問題無法負擔龐大的軍事費用而逐漸退出亞太，造成亞太地區的權力真空。這段期間內，中共已從1979年後的改革開放中取得綜合國力的提升，使中共得以在亞太地區竄起，逐漸發展成為區域強權，到現在被視為是美國潛在對手的世界強權。 中共之所以能取得今天的地位，主要靠的就是經濟的持續成長，然成長的動力乃來自於對能源之需求。目前中共為僅次於美國的全球第二大石油消費國，不過，這背後卻是高度依賴進口石油，其中80 %是經印度洋、麻六甲海峽及南海運抵大陸。從安全及經濟戰略的角度切入，中共沒有不掌握南海控制權的理由。這也道出後冷戰時期國家戰略的轉變，逐漸從陸地轉為重視海上的主權與安全，由此，中共在南海戰略布局，建立海軍基地，正是為了維護在南海的利益。 　　然而這樣的利益卻因為南海議題至終仍僵持不下，影響中共在南海戰略的目標與規畫，例如1982年的海洋公約法各自宣布經濟海域之範圍，使得各國主權的行使上具有相互重疊的部分，加上南海區域所蘊含著可觀的石油資源和航線價值，導致各個當事國皆不願放棄其主權的擁有。更不用說是境外勢力的介入，都使得南海問題變得更加複雜，進而改變中共在南海的戰略。 　　由此，本文將從這個錯綜複雜的問題中，先探討南海爭議的源頭與脈絡，有助於了解中共制定南海政策的背景。其次再從政治、經濟以及軍事方面來分析中共在南海的意圖和戰略，包括了在海南設立海軍基地、加速發展潛艦和航母等，研究中共海軍建軍的進程與南海戰略之關係。最後，再評估中共的南海戰略對區域安全所造成的衝擊，以及如何影響周邊國家和區外國家的行為。 / After the Cold War, there is no strong power in the Asia Pacific region as a result of the collapse of the communist Soviet Union while the United States (U.S.) had the economic problem which also made it to withdraw forces from that region. During this timeframe, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has improved its overall national power by reforms and transformations since 1979 which gave it opportunity to raise and become regional superpower and is being recognized as a potential global superpower and adversary to the U.S. 　　PRC gained today’s position mainly through its continued economic growth and its growing momentum is constructed upon the energy requirement. Currently, PRC is the second largest oil consumer besides the U.S. and is heavily dependent upon the imports in which 80 percent come from the Indian Ocean, Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea. From the security and economics point of view, there is no reason PRC should give up the control of the South China Sea which explains its national strategy has shifted from continent thinking to focusing on the maritime sovereignty and security. Thus, PRC’s strategy in South China Sea and the construction of naval bases are to protect its interest in that area. 　　However, the territorial disputes of the South China Sea have influenced PRC’s strategic goal and planning. For instance, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea in 1982 has the clause to announce economic zone which would overlap with neighboring countries. Furthermore, the potential undiscovered oil underneath the South China Sea and the critical sea lanes made relevant nations unwilling to give up their claims, not to say the involvement of foreign powers. All these have made the South China Sea a complicated issue which also affected PRC to change its South China Sea strategy. 　　Thereby, this paper will examine the origin of this complicated South China Sea issue which will help readers to understand the background of the forming of PRC’s South China Sea policy. Next, we will analyze PRC’s intent and strategy from political, economical and military aspects, including its set up of naval bases in that area and the speedup of the development of aircraft carrier and submarine, and also the relationship between PLA Navy’s buildup and the South China Sea. Finally, we will analyze the security impact to that area by PRC’s South China Sea strategy and how it affects peripheral nations’ behavior and nations outside that area.