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Spatial modelling of sustainable wind power developmentAndersson, Martin January 2021 (has links)
Measures to mitigate climate change has never been a more pressing matter thanit is today and the global debate over energy security, environmental decline andlimited resources is heated, which motivates decision makers and leaders to searchfor alternative energy sources, renewable sources. The Swedish government has seta goal to make its entire domestic electricity production 100 % renewable and phaseout energy production based on fossil fuels entirely by year 2040, where wind powerwill contribute largely to that goal. This study aimed to generally analyse where itwas suitable and not suitable to establish wind turbines with respect to ecological,social and economical values to achieve sustainable development.To do this, a multi-criteria analysis was conducted based on the analytical hierarchyprocess method with the extension of combining it with fuzzy triangular numbersand then comparing the two methods. Ecological values were set as protected areasand not suitable for wind turbine placement. Relevance of social and economicalvalues in relation to each other were differentiated by asking five experts in the fieldof wind power as renewable energy to perform a pairwise comparison between eightdifferent factors. This resulted in relative weights illustrating the importance ofeach factor. These weights were then brought into a GIS environment where theywere modelled for suitability along with areas subjected to formal protection andother land use acting as constraints in Ragunda municipality and Västernorrlandcounty. Different scenarios were modelled that did or did not include areas forreindeer husbandry as a constraint. The final suitability maps were then comparedto existing wind turbines as well as areas of national interest for wind power inSweden.Results showed that good wind conditions was the most prominent factor to consider when siting wind turbines. No significant difference was observed when fuzzyanalytical hierarchy process was used instead of the classic analytical hierarchy process when modelling suitable wind turbine placement in a GIS environment. Ananalytical methodology combined with multi-criteria analysis applied in this studyshow that potential suitable areas that has not yet been exploited by wind powerexists both in Ragunda and Västernorrland that takes into account ecological, socialand economic criteria to support sustainable development. / Åtgärder för att förhindra klimatförändring har aldrig varit en mer angelägen frågaän den är idag och den globala debatten om energisäkerhet, miljöförstöring och begränsade resurser har väckt intresset hos många världen runt att påverka beslutsfattareoch ledare att titta på alternativa energikällor, förnybara källor. Svenska regeringenhar som mål att göra hela sin inhemska elproduktion till 100 % återförnybar ochfasa ut energiproduktion baserad på fossila bränslen helt till år 2040, där vindkrafttill stor del kommer att bidra till det målet. Denna studie syftade till att översiktligtanalysera var vindkraft är lämplig och inte lämplig att lokalisera med avseende påekologiska, sociala och ekonomiska värden för hållbar utveckling.För att göra detta genomfördes en multikriterieanalys baserad på metoden ’analytical hierarchy process’ med förlängningen av att kombinera den med ’fuzzy triangularnumbers’. Ekologiska värden sattes som skyddade områden ej lämpliga för etableringav vindkraft. Relevans av ekonomiska och sociala värden i förhållande till varandradifferentierades genom att tillfråga fem sakkuniga yrkesutövare inom vindkraftsområdet att göra en parvis jämförelse mellan åtta olika faktorer. Denna jämförelseresulterade i relativa viktningar som illustrerar vikten av varje faktor. Dessa vikter fördes sedan in i en GIS-miljö där de modellerades för lämplighet tillsammansmed områden som har formellt skydd och annan markanvändning vilket fungeradesom begränsade områden i Ragunda kommun och Västernorrlands län. Olika scenarier modellerades som inkluderade eller inte inkluderade områden för renskötselsom ett begränsningsområde. De slutliga lämplighetskartorna jämfördes sedan medbefintliga vindkraftverk samt områden av riksintresse för vindkraft i Sverige.Resultaten visade att goda vindförhållanden var den mest framträdande faktorn attta hänsyn till vid placering av vindkraftverk. Ingen större skillnad observerades nären ’fuzzy analytical hierarchy process’ användes istället för den klassiska ’analyticalhierarchy process’ när lämplig lokalisering av vindkraftverk modellerades i en GISmiljö. En analytisk metodik med hjälp av multikriterieanalys som applicerades i denhär studien visar på potentiellt lämpliga områden som ännu inte har utnyttjats avvindkraft finns både i Ragunda och Västernorrland som tar hänsyn till ekologiska,sociala och ekonomiska kriterier för att stödja hållbar utveckling. / Vindval
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Quantitative Methods of Statistical ArbitrageBoming Ning (18414465) 22 April 2024 (has links)
<p dir="ltr">Statistical arbitrage is a prevalent trading strategy which takes advantage of mean reverse property of spreads constructed from pairs or portfolios of assets. Utilizing statistical models and algorithms, statistical arbitrage exploits and capitalizes on the pricing inefficiencies between securities or within asset portfolios. </p><p dir="ltr">In chapter 2, We propose a framework for constructing diversified portfolios with multiple pairs trading strategies. In our approach, several pairs of co-moving assets are traded simultaneously, and capital is dynamically allocated among different pairs based on the statistical characteristics of the historical spreads. This allows us to further consider various portfolio designs and rebalancing strategies. Working with empirical data, our experiments suggest the significant benefits of diversification within our proposed framework.</p><p dir="ltr">In chapter 3, we explore an optimal timing strategy for the trading of price spreads exhibiting mean-reverting characteristics. A sequential optimal stopping framework is formulated to analyze the optimal timings for both entering and subsequently liquidating positions, all while considering the impact of transaction costs. Then we leverages a refined signature optimal stopping method to resolve this sequential optimal stopping problem, thereby unveiling the precise entry and exit timings that maximize gains. Our framework operates without any predefined assumptions regarding the dynamics of the underlying mean-reverting spreads, offering adaptability to diverse scenarios. Numerical results are provided to demonstrate its superior performance when comparing with conventional mean reversion trading rules.</p><p dir="ltr">In chapter 4, we introduce an innovative model-free and reinforcement learning based framework for statistical arbitrage. For the construction of mean reversion spreads, we establish an empirical reversion time metric and optimize asset coefficients by minimizing this empirical mean reversion time. In the trading phase, we employ a reinforcement learning framework to identify the optimal mean reversion strategy. Diverging from traditional mean reversion strategies that primarily focus on price deviations from a long-term mean, our methodology creatively constructs the state space to encapsulate the recent trends in price movements. Additionally, the reward function is carefully tailored to reflect the unique characteristics of mean reversion trading.</p>
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Untersuchungen zur einzelbaumverursachten kleinräumigen Variabilität und regenhöhenbasierten Dynamik des Bestandesniederschlages am Beispiel zweier Buchen-Fichten-Mischbestände / Study on the single-tree related small-scale variability and quantity-dependent dynamics of net forest precipitation using the example of two mixed beech-spruce standsFrischbier, Nico 03 September 2012 (has links) (PDF)
Trifft herabfallender Regen auf Waldflächen, so wird dieser Niederschlag umverteilt zu Interzeption, Stammabfluss, durchfallenden und abtropfenden Niederschlag. Besonders hohe Stammablaufmengen im Kronenzentrum und markante Abtropfstellen am Kronenrand einzelner Baumarten lassen sich zudem nur erklären, wenn am jeweiligen Messplatz unter Baumkronen eine weitere Niederschlagskomponente zugelassen wird, mit der laterale Wasserbewegungen innerhalb der expliziten Einzelbaumkrone beschrieben und bilanziert werden (lateraler [Zu- oder Ab-]Fluss).
Ziel dieser Arbeit war es deshalb, der niederschlagsabhängigen und kleinräumigen Dynamik dieser Umverteilung im Wald am Beispiel der Baumarten Buche (Fagus sylvatica L.) und Fichte (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) durch Aufnahmen und Auswertungen in zwei Mischbeständen beider Baumarten nachzugehen. Wiederholende Niederschlagsaufzeichnungen einzelner Regenereignisse wurden hierzu in Relation zur jeweiligen Freilandniederschlagsmenge, zur Art der Messplatzüberschirmung im Kronendach und zur Distanz des Messplatzes zum ihn dominierenden Baum varianz- und regressionsanalytisch untersucht und um Ergebnisse aus Stammablaufanalysen und Streumodellen ergänzt.
Auf dieser Basis konnten Kausalmodelle zur Schätzung des Unterkronenniederschlages mit hoher Güte hergeleitet werden, die im Detail ein baumartspezifisches räumliches Verhalten der einzelnen Niederschlagskomponenten beim Passieren der Baumkrone belegen. Neben den Besonderheiten, die sich bei Messungen in Bestandeslücken einstellen, ergeben sich so z.B. in der Vegetationsperiode je nach Messplatzposition und Freilandniederschlagsmenge Unterschiede im Niederschlag unter beiden Baumartenkronen von bis zu 35 % des Freilandniederschlages je Einzelereignis und zwar stets zugunsten der Buchenüberschirmung. Am Stammfuss von Buchen kann darüber hinaus zusätzliches Wasser durch den Stammabfluss eingetragen werden. Hierfür notwenige Wassermengen können plausibel aus dem nachgewiesenen lateralen Wasserabfluss im inneren Kronendrittel von Buchen gedeckt werden. Über ein räumlich konkretes Interzeptionsmodell, kombiniert mit Blattflächenschätzungen für Einzelbäume konkreter Dimension, konnte ein räumliches LAI-Modell für Buchen abgeleitet werden, dass höchste LAI-Werte im Kronenzentrum annimmt.
Da der Bestandesniederschlag hinsichtlich Niederschlagsmenge, Bestockung, Belaubungszustand und zum räumlich konkreten Messplatz unter der einzelnen Baumkrone veränderlich ist, wird die gewissenhaftere Berücksichtigung dieser Einflussvariablen angeregt und der bisher häufig praktizierten pauschalen Aufteilung des Niederschlages in einzelne Niederschlagskomponenten auf Basis von Flächen- und Messphasendurchschnittswerten widersprochen. / Forests redistribute the precipitation falling on their canopy into interception, stemflow, drip or direct throughfall. Extremely high amounts of stemflow in the centre of the crown and distinct drip points along the crown edge of certain tree species can only be explained by admitting an additional precipitation component at these measurement locations that describes and captures the lateral movement of water within the individual tree crown (lateral in- or outflow).
The aim of this study was therefore to analyse these precipitation-dependent, small-scale dynamics of precipitation redistribution in forests using field-measurements from two mixed stands of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.). Periodic measurements of individual precipitation events were examined in relation to the respective gross precipitation, the type of canopy above a plot and the distance of a plot to its dominant sheltering canopy tree using variance and regression analysis, and complemented with stemflow analyses and litterfall models.
Using this dataset, causal models for the high-precision estimation of throughfall were derived, showing tree species-specific pathways of the individual precipitation components through the tree crown. Apart from the particularities of measurements in canopy gaps, differences in throughfall between spruce and beech during the vegetation period amount to up to 35 % of gross precipitation per event, in favour of the beech canopy and depending on plot location. At the stem base of beech trees additional water can reach the forest floor via stemflow. The amount of water required to generate this stemflow can plausibly be explained by means of the verified lateral water flow in the inner third of beech crowns. Using a spatially explicit interception model combined with LAI estimates for specific individual trees, a spatial LAI model was developed for beech, showing maximal LAI values in the crown centre.
As the net forest precipitation is sensitive with respect to precipitation amount, stand type, foliage status and the spatially explicit plot location below an individual tree crown, this study recommends the consideration of these influential factors and contradicts the commonly practiced blanket partitioning of precipitation into individual components based on spatial and temporal averages.
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Home, Job and Space : Mapping and Modeling the Labor MarketÖsth, John January 2007 (has links)
How does space affect individuals’ outcome on the labor market? And how do we measure it? Beyond the notion of the labor market as a system of supply and demand, lays a society of individuals and workplaces, whose relationships are undeniably complex. This thesis aims to shed some new light on how to investigate and analyze the complex labor market relationships from a spatial perspective. In this thesis, five self-contained articles describe the spatial relationship between individuals and workplaces. In the first article, the official delineation of local labor market areas is tested against the delineation of labor markets for different subgroups. Differences in the regionalization are discussed from the subgroups’ and municipals’ perspective. In the second article, two sources of bias in the computation of local labor market areas, and suggestions how to reduce them, are presented. In the third article the spatial mismatch hypothesis is tested and confirmed on a refugee population in Sweden. In articles four and five, a new model for the estimation of job accessibility is introduced and evaluated. The model, ELMO, is created to answer to the need for a new accessibility measure to be used in spatial mismatch related research. The usability of the model is validated through empirical tests, were the ELMO-model excels in comparison to the accessibility models it is tested against.
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Data-driven prediction of saltmarsh morphodynamicsEvans, Ben Richard January 2018 (has links)
Saltmarshes provide a diverse range of ecosystem services and are protected under a number of international designations. Nevertheless they are generally declining in extent in the United Kingdom and North West Europe. The drivers of this decline are complex and poorly understood. When considering mitigation and management for future ecosystem service provision it will be important to understand why, where, and to what extent decline is likely to occur. Few studies have attempted to forecast saltmarsh morphodynamics at a system level over decadal time scales. There is no synthesis of existing knowledge available for specific site predictions nor is there a formalised framework for individual site assessment and management. This project evaluates the extent to which machine learning model approaches (boosted regression trees, neural networks and Bayesian networks) can facilitate synthesis of information and prediction of decadal-scale morphological tendencies of saltmarshes. Importantly, data-driven predictions are independent of the assumptions underlying physically-based models, and therefore offer an additional opportunity to crossvalidate between two paradigms. Marsh margins and interiors are both considered but are treated separately since they are regarded as being sensitive to different process suites. The study therefore identifies factors likely to control morphological trajectories and develops geospatial methodologies to derive proxy measures relating to controls or processes. These metrics are developed at a high spatial density in the order of tens of metres allowing for the resolution of fine-scale behavioural differences. Conventional statistical approaches, as have been previously adopted, are applied to the dataset to assess consistency with previous findings, with some agreement being found. The data are subsequently used to train and compare three types of machine learning model. Boosted regression trees outperform the other two methods in this context. The resulting models are able to explain more than 95% of the variance in marginal changes and 91% for internal dynamics. Models are selected based on validation performance and are then queried with realistic future scenarios which represent altered input conditions that may arise as a consequence of future environmental change. Responses to these scenarios are evaluated, suggesting system sensitivity to all scenarios tested and offering a high degree of spatial detail in responses. While mechanistic interpretation of some responses is challenging, process-based justifications are offered for many of the observed behaviours, providing confidence that the results are realistic. The work demonstrates a potentially powerful alternative (and complement) to current morphodynamic models that can be applied over large areas with relative ease, compared to numerical implementations. Powerful analyses with broad scope are now available to the field of coastal geomorphology through the combination of spatial data streams and machine learning. Such methods are shown to be of great potential value in support of applied management and monitoring interventions.
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Untersuchungen zur einzelbaumverursachten kleinräumigen Variabilität und regenhöhenbasierten Dynamik des Bestandesniederschlages am Beispiel zweier Buchen-Fichten-MischbeständeFrischbier, Nico 19 March 2012 (has links)
Trifft herabfallender Regen auf Waldflächen, so wird dieser Niederschlag umverteilt zu Interzeption, Stammabfluss, durchfallenden und abtropfenden Niederschlag. Besonders hohe Stammablaufmengen im Kronenzentrum und markante Abtropfstellen am Kronenrand einzelner Baumarten lassen sich zudem nur erklären, wenn am jeweiligen Messplatz unter Baumkronen eine weitere Niederschlagskomponente zugelassen wird, mit der laterale Wasserbewegungen innerhalb der expliziten Einzelbaumkrone beschrieben und bilanziert werden (lateraler [Zu- oder Ab-]Fluss).
Ziel dieser Arbeit war es deshalb, der niederschlagsabhängigen und kleinräumigen Dynamik dieser Umverteilung im Wald am Beispiel der Baumarten Buche (Fagus sylvatica L.) und Fichte (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) durch Aufnahmen und Auswertungen in zwei Mischbeständen beider Baumarten nachzugehen. Wiederholende Niederschlagsaufzeichnungen einzelner Regenereignisse wurden hierzu in Relation zur jeweiligen Freilandniederschlagsmenge, zur Art der Messplatzüberschirmung im Kronendach und zur Distanz des Messplatzes zum ihn dominierenden Baum varianz- und regressionsanalytisch untersucht und um Ergebnisse aus Stammablaufanalysen und Streumodellen ergänzt.
Auf dieser Basis konnten Kausalmodelle zur Schätzung des Unterkronenniederschlages mit hoher Güte hergeleitet werden, die im Detail ein baumartspezifisches räumliches Verhalten der einzelnen Niederschlagskomponenten beim Passieren der Baumkrone belegen. Neben den Besonderheiten, die sich bei Messungen in Bestandeslücken einstellen, ergeben sich so z.B. in der Vegetationsperiode je nach Messplatzposition und Freilandniederschlagsmenge Unterschiede im Niederschlag unter beiden Baumartenkronen von bis zu 35 % des Freilandniederschlages je Einzelereignis und zwar stets zugunsten der Buchenüberschirmung. Am Stammfuss von Buchen kann darüber hinaus zusätzliches Wasser durch den Stammabfluss eingetragen werden. Hierfür notwenige Wassermengen können plausibel aus dem nachgewiesenen lateralen Wasserabfluss im inneren Kronendrittel von Buchen gedeckt werden. Über ein räumlich konkretes Interzeptionsmodell, kombiniert mit Blattflächenschätzungen für Einzelbäume konkreter Dimension, konnte ein räumliches LAI-Modell für Buchen abgeleitet werden, dass höchste LAI-Werte im Kronenzentrum annimmt.
Da der Bestandesniederschlag hinsichtlich Niederschlagsmenge, Bestockung, Belaubungszustand und zum räumlich konkreten Messplatz unter der einzelnen Baumkrone veränderlich ist, wird die gewissenhaftere Berücksichtigung dieser Einflussvariablen angeregt und der bisher häufig praktizierten pauschalen Aufteilung des Niederschlages in einzelne Niederschlagskomponenten auf Basis von Flächen- und Messphasendurchschnittswerten widersprochen. / Forests redistribute the precipitation falling on their canopy into interception, stemflow, drip or direct throughfall. Extremely high amounts of stemflow in the centre of the crown and distinct drip points along the crown edge of certain tree species can only be explained by admitting an additional precipitation component at these measurement locations that describes and captures the lateral movement of water within the individual tree crown (lateral in- or outflow).
The aim of this study was therefore to analyse these precipitation-dependent, small-scale dynamics of precipitation redistribution in forests using field-measurements from two mixed stands of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.). Periodic measurements of individual precipitation events were examined in relation to the respective gross precipitation, the type of canopy above a plot and the distance of a plot to its dominant sheltering canopy tree using variance and regression analysis, and complemented with stemflow analyses and litterfall models.
Using this dataset, causal models for the high-precision estimation of throughfall were derived, showing tree species-specific pathways of the individual precipitation components through the tree crown. Apart from the particularities of measurements in canopy gaps, differences in throughfall between spruce and beech during the vegetation period amount to up to 35 % of gross precipitation per event, in favour of the beech canopy and depending on plot location. At the stem base of beech trees additional water can reach the forest floor via stemflow. The amount of water required to generate this stemflow can plausibly be explained by means of the verified lateral water flow in the inner third of beech crowns. Using a spatially explicit interception model combined with LAI estimates for specific individual trees, a spatial LAI model was developed for beech, showing maximal LAI values in the crown centre.
As the net forest precipitation is sensitive with respect to precipitation amount, stand type, foliage status and the spatially explicit plot location below an individual tree crown, this study recommends the consideration of these influential factors and contradicts the commonly practiced blanket partitioning of precipitation into individual components based on spatial and temporal averages.
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Understanding spatial patterns of land-system change in EuropeLevers, Christian 27 April 2016 (has links)
Die Nutzung von terrestrischen Ökosystemen zur Befriedigung der Grundbedürfnisse der Menschheit hat tiefgreifende Auswirkungen auf das Erdsystem und führte zur Ausprägung von anthropogen dominierten Landsystemen. Diese sind von hoher Komplexität, da sie aus einer Vielzahl von unterschiedlichsten Einflussfaktoren angetriebenen Landnutzungsveränderungen hervorgegangen sind. Aktuelle Forderungen nach einer nachhaltigen zukünftigen Landnutzung erfordern ein fundiertes und integratives Verständnis dieser Komplexität. Das Hauptziel dieser Arbeit ist es, ein besseres Verständnis der raum-zeitlichen Muster und Determinanten des Landsystemwandels, insbesondere der Landnutzungsintensität, in Europa zwischen 1990 und 2010 zu erlangen. Europa ist ein interessantes Studiengebiet, da es jüngst starke Landnutzungsveränderungen erlebte und seine Heterogenität zu einer Vielfalt von Landsystemen und Landsystemveränderungen führte. Das Ziel der Arbeit wurde durch (i) die Kartierung von Intensitätsmustern und deren Veränderungen in Forst- und Agrarsystemen sowie der Ermittlung der dafür einflussreichsten räumlichen Determinanten und (ii) die Kartierung und Charakterisierung archetypischer Muster und Entwicklungsverläufe von Landsystemen untersucht. Die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit zeigten einen deutlichen Ost-West-Unterschied in Landsystemmustern und -veränderungen in Europa, mit intensiv genutzten und intensivierenden Regionen vor allem in Westeuropa. Dennoch wurde Europa vor allem durch relativ stabile Landsystemmuster gekennzeichnet und (De-)Intensivierungstrends waren nur von untergeordneter Bedeutung. Intensitätsmuster und -veränderungen waren stark an Standortbedingungen gebunden, vor allem an edaphische, klimatische, und länderspezifische Besonderheiten. Diese Arbeit erweitert das Verständnis des Landsystemwandels in Europa und kann zur Entwicklung wissenschaftlicher und politikbezogener Maßnahmen sowie zur Erreichung einer nachhaltigeren Landnutzung in Europa beitragen. / The utilisation of terrestrial ecosystems to satisfy the basic needs of humankind has profound impacts on the Earth System and led to the development of human-dominated land systems. These are substantially complex as they evolved from a multitude of land-change pathways driven by a variety of influential factors. Current calls for a more sustainable future land-use require a sound and integrative understanding of this complexity. The main goal of this thesis is to better understand the spatio-temporal patterns and the determinants of land-system change in Europe between 1990 and 2010, especially with regard to land-use intensity. Europe serves as an interesting study region as it recently experienced a period of marked land-use change, and since its large environmental, political, and socio-economic heterogeneity resulted in a diversity of land systems and land-change pathways. Land-system changes in Europe were examined by (i) mapping patterns and changes in forestry and agricultural intensity and identifying the most influential spatial determinants related to these changes, and (ii) mapping and characterising archetypical patterns and trajectories of land systems considering both land-use extent and intensity indicators. Results revealed a distinct east-west divide in Europe’s land-system patterns and change trajectories, with intensively used and intensifying regions particularly located in Western Europe. However, Europe was mainly characterised by relatively stable land-systems patterns with (de-) intensification trends being only of minor importance. Land-use intensity levels and changes were strongly related to site conditions, especially with regard to soil and climate, as well as to country-specific characteristics. By fostering the understanding of land-system change, this thesis has the potential to contribute to scientific and policy-related actions that address current efforts to guide future land systems in Europe to a more sustainable use.
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Land-use Change in the Central Highlands of Vietnam / A spatial econometric model combining satellite imagery and village survey data / Landnutzungsveränderungen im Zentralen Hochland Vietnams / Ein räumliches ökonometrisches Modell unter Verwendung von Satellitendaten und einer DorfumfrageMüller, Daniel 22 May 2003 (has links)
No description available.
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Spatial Modelling of Gastroenteritis Prevalence Following the February 22, 2011 Earthquake and Identification of Successful Factors Preventing Outbreaks at Emergency CentresChandratilake (nee Weerasekara), Sonali Evanjali January 2013 (has links)
The potential for a gastroenteritis outbreak in a post-earthquake environment may increase because of compromised infrastructure services, contaminated liquefaction (lateral spreading and surface ejecta), and the presence of gastroenteritis agents in the drinking water network. A population in a post-earthquake environment might be seriously affected by gastroenteritis because it has a short incubation period (about 10 hours).
The potential for a gastroenteritis outbreak in a post-earthquake environment may increase because of compromised infrastructure services, contaminated liquefaction (lateral spreading and surface ejecta), and the presence of gastroenteritis agents in the drinking water network. A population in a post-earthquake environment might be seriously affected by gastroenteritis because it has a short incubation period (about 10 hours).
The aim of this multidisciplinary research was to retrospectively analyse the gastroenteritis prevalence following the February 22, 2011 earthquake in Christchurch. The first focus was to assess whether earthquake-induced infrastructure damage, liquefaction, and gastroenteritis agents spatially explained the recorded gastroenteritis cases over the period of 35 days following the February 22, 2011 earthquake in Christchurch. The gastroenteritis agents considered in this study were Escherichia coli found in the drinking water supply (MPN/100mL) and Non-Compliant Free Associated Chlorine (FAC-NC) (less than <0.02mg/L). The second focus was the protocols that averted a gastroenteritis outbreak at three Emergency Centres (ECs): Burnside High School Emergency Centre (BEC); Cowles Stadium Emergency Centre (CEC); and Linwood High School Emergency Centre (LEC).
Using a mixed-method approach, gastroenteritis point prevalence and the considered factors were quantitatively analysed. The qualitative analysis involved interviewing 30 EC staff members. The data was evaluated by adopting the Grounded Theory (GT) approach.
Spatial analysis of considered factors showed that highly damaged CAUs were statistically clustered as demonstrated by Moran’s I statistic and hot spot analysis. Further modelling showed that gastroenteritis point prevalence clustering could not be fully explained by infrastructure damage alone, and other factors influenced the recorded gastroenteritis point prevalence. However, the results of this research suggest that there was a tenuous, indirect relationship between recorded gastroenteritis point prevalence and the considered factors: earthquake-induced infrastructure damage, liquefaction and FAC-NC.
Two ECs were opened as part of the post-earthquake response in areas with severe infrastructure damage and liquefaction (BEC and CEC). The third EC (CEC) provided important lessons that were learnt from the previous September 4, 2010 earthquake, and implemented after the February 22, 2011 earthquake. Two types of interwoven themes identified: direct and indirect. The direct themes were preventive protocols and indirect themes included type of EC building (school or a sports stadium), and EC staff. The main limitations of the research were Modifiable Areal Units (MAUP), data detection, and memory loss.
This research provides a practical method that can be adapted to assess gastroenteritis risk in a post-earthquake environment. Thus, this mixed method approach can be used in other disaster contexts to study gastroenteritis prevalence, and can serve as an appendage to the existing framework for assessing infectious diseases. Furthermore, the lessons learnt from qualitative analysis can inform the current infectious disease management plans, designed for a post-disaster response in New Zealand and internationally
Using a mixed-method approach, gastroenteritis point prevalence and the considered factors were quantitatively analysed. A damage profile was created by amalgamating different types of damage for the considered factors for each Census Area Unit (CAU) in Christchurch. The damage profile enabled the application of a variety of statistical methods which included Moran’s I , Hot Spot (HS) analysis, Spearman’s Rho, and Besag–York–Mollié Model using a range of software. The qualitative analysis involved interviewing 30 EC staff members. The data was evaluated by adopting the Grounded Theory (GT) approach.
Spatial analysis of considered factors showed that highly damaged CAUs were statistically clustered as demonstrated by Moran’s I statistic and hot spot analysis. Further modelling showed that gastroenteritis point prevalence clustering could not be fully explained by infrastructure damage alone, and other factors influenced the recorded gastroenteritis point prevalence. However, the results of this research suggest that there was a tenuous, indirect relationship between recorded gastroenteritis point prevalence and the considered factors: earthquake-induced infrastructure damage, liquefaction and FAC-NC.
Two ECs were opened as part of the post-earthquake response in areas with severe infrastructure damage and liquefaction (BEC and CEC). The third EC (CEC) provided important lessons that were learnt from the previous September 4, 2010 earthquake, and implemented after the February 22, 2011 earthquake. The ECs were selected to represent the Christchurch area, and were situated where potential for gastroenteritis was high. BEC represented the western side of Christchurch; whilst, CEC and LEC represented the eastern side, where the potential for gastroenteritis was high according to the outputs of the quantitative spatial modelling. Qualitative analysis from the interviews at the ECs revealed that evacuees were arriving at the ECs with gastroenteritis-like symptoms. Participants believed that those symptoms did not originate at the ECs. Two types of interwoven themes identified: direct and indirect. The direct themes were preventive protocols that included prolific use of hand sanitisers; surveillance; and the services offered. Indirect themes included the EC layout, type of EC building (school or a sports stadium), and EC staff. Indirect themes governed the quality and sustainability of the direct themes implemented, which in turn averted gastroenteritis outbreaks at the ECs. The main limitations of the research were Modifiable Areal Units (MAUP), data detection, and memory loss.
It was concluded that gastroenteritis point prevalence following the February 22, 2011 earthquake could not be solely explained by earthquake-induced infrastructure damage, liquefaction, and gastroenteritis causative agents alone. However, this research provides a practical method that can be adapted to assess gastroenteritis risk in a post-earthquake environment. Creating a damage profile for each CAU and using spatial data analysis can isolate vulnerable areas, and qualitative data analysis provides localised information. Thus, this mixed method approach can be used in other disaster contexts to study gastroenteritis prevalence, and can serve as an appendage to the existing framework for assessing infectious diseases. Furthermore, the lessons learnt from qualitative analysis can inform the current infectious disease management plans, designed for a post-disaster response in New Zealand and internationally.
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