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Contributions to Multi-Armed Bandits : Risk-Awareness and Sub-Sampling for Linear Contextual Bandits / Contributions aux bandits manchots : gestion du risque et sous-échantillonnage pour les bandits contextuels linéairesGalichet, Nicolas 28 September 2015 (has links)
Cette thèse s'inscrit dans le domaine de la prise de décision séquentielle en environnement inconnu, et plus particulièrement dans le cadre des bandits manchots (multi-armed bandits, MAB), défini par Robbins et Lai dans les années 50. Depuis les années 2000, ce cadre a fait l'objet de nombreuses recherches théoriques et algorithmiques centrées sur le compromis entre l'exploration et l'exploitation : L'exploitation consiste à répéter le plus souvent possible les choix qui se sont avérés les meilleurs jusqu'à présent. L'exploration consiste à essayer des choix qui ont rarement été essayés, pour vérifier qu'on a bien identifié les meilleurs choix. Les applications des approches MAB vont du choix des traitements médicaux à la recommandation dans le contexte du commerce électronique, en passant par la recherche de politiques optimales de l'énergie. Les contributions présentées dans ce manuscrit s'intéressent au compromis exploration vs exploitation sous deux angles spécifiques. Le premier concerne la prise en compte du risque. Toute exploration dans un contexte inconnu peut en effet aboutir à des conséquences indésirables ; par exemple l'exploration des comportements d'un robot peut aboutir à des dommages pour le robot ou pour son environnement. Dans ce contexte, l'objectif est d'obtenir un compromis entre exploration, exploitation, et prise de risque (EER). Plusieurs algorithmes originaux sont proposés dans le cadre du compromis EER. Sous des hypothèses fortes, l'algorithme MIN offre des garanties de regret logarithmique, à l'état de l'art ; il offre également une grande robustesse, contrastant avec la forte sensibilité aux valeurs des hyper-paramètres de e.g. (Auer et al. 2002). L'algorithme MARAB s'intéresse à un critère inspiré de la littérature économique(Conditional Value at Risk), et montre d'excellentes performances empiriques comparées à (Sani et al. 2012), mais sans garanties théoriques. Enfin, l'algorithme MARABOUT modifie l'estimation du critère CVaR pour obtenir des garanties théoriques, tout en obtenant un bon comportement empirique. Le second axe de recherche concerne le bandit contextuel, où l'on dispose d'informations additionnelles relatives au contexte de la décision ; par exemple, les variables d'état du patient dans un contexte médical ou de l'utilisateur dans un contexte de recommandation. L'étude se focalise sur le choix entre bras qu'on a tirés précédemment un nombre de fois différent. Le choix repose en général sur la notion d'optimisme, comparant les bornes supérieures des intervalles de confiance associés aux bras considérés. Une autre approche appelée BESA, reposant sur le sous-échantillonnage des valeurs tirées pour les bras les plus visités, et permettant ainsi de se ramener au cas où tous les bras ont été tirés un même nombre de fois, a été proposée par (Baransi et al. 2014). / This thesis focuses on sequential decision making in unknown environment, and more particularly on the Multi-Armed Bandit (MAB) setting, defined by Lai and Robbins in the 50s. During the last decade, many theoretical and algorithmic studies have been aimed at cthe exploration vs exploitation tradeoff at the core of MABs, where Exploitation is biased toward the best options visited so far while Exploration is biased toward options rarely visited, to enforce the discovery of the the true best choices. MAB applications range from medicine (the elicitation of the best prescriptions) to e-commerce (recommendations, advertisements) and optimal policies (e.g., in the energy domain). The contributions presented in this dissertation tackle the exploration vs exploitation dilemma under two angles. The first contribution is centered on risk avoidance. Exploration in unknown environments often has adverse effects: for instance exploratory trajectories of a robot can entail physical damages for the robot or its environment. We thus define the exploration vs exploitation vs safety (EES) tradeoff, and propose three new algorithms addressing the EES dilemma. Firstly and under strong assumptions, the MIN algorithm provides a robust behavior with guarantees of logarithmic regret, matching the state of the art with a high robustness w.r.t. hyper-parameter setting (as opposed to, e.g. UCB (Auer 2002)). Secondly, the MARAB algorithm aims at optimizing the cumulative 'Conditional Value at Risk' (CVar) rewards, originated from the economics domain, with excellent empirical performances compared to (Sani et al. 2012), though without any theoretical guarantees. Finally, the MARABOUT algorithm modifies the CVar estimation and yields both theoretical guarantees and a good empirical behavior. The second contribution concerns the contextual bandit setting, where additional informations are provided to support the decision making, such as the user details in the ontent recommendation domain, or the patient history in the medical domain. The study focuses on how to make a choice between two arms with different numbers of samples. Traditionally, a confidence region is derived for each arm based on the associated samples, and the 'Optimism in front of the unknown' principle implements the choice of the arm with maximal upper confidence bound. An alternative, pioneered by (Baransi et al. 2014), and called BESA, proceeds instead by subsampling without replacement the larger sample set. In this framework, we designed a contextual bandit algorithm based on sub-sampling without replacement, relaxing the (unrealistic) assumption that all arm reward distributions rely on the same parameter. The CL-BESA algorithm yields both theoretical guarantees of logarithmic regret and good empirical behavior.
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Om jag hjälper andra, kan jag hjälpa mig själv? : En kvalitativ studie om finansiella rådgivares privata investeringsbeslut och sparande under 2022 / If I can help others, can I help myself? : A qualitative study about financial advisors' private investment decisions and savings during 2022Fagerström, Milla, Kempe, Hanna January 2023 (has links)
Bakgrund: År 2022 kantades av Rysslands invasion av Ukraina, börsnedgång, stigande inflation och styrräntor. Det bidrog till att allt fler sökte hjälp av finansiella rådgivare för att utifrån livssituationen få hjälp med att nå sina sparmål och maximera sin avkastning. I tidigare forskning råder det delade meningar kring om den finansiella rådgivaren faktiskt bidrar till positiva ekonomiska utfall hos kunden. Å andra sidan får den finansiella rådgivaren, åtminstone privat, kunskap till sig via sitt arbete som torde leda till en hög finansiell bildning. Huruvida det faktiskt bidrar till positiva ekonomiska utfall i den finansiella rådgivarens egna investeringsbeslut och sparande under 2022 leder således till frågan, om de kan hjälpa andra, kan de även hjälpa sig själva? Syfte: Studien syftar till att skapa en förståelse för hur finansiella rådgivares privata sparande och investeringsbeslut samvarierar med olika faktorer såsom livssituation, psykologiska bias och erfarenheter under 2022. Vidare ämnar studien utforska hur finansiella rådgivare ställer sig till ytterligare utbildning inom beteendeekonomi och huruvida de tror att det kan bidra till bättre finansiellt beslutsfattande. Metod: En kvalitativ metod har använts för att uppfylla studiens syfte. Tio finansiella rådgivare intervjuades genom semistrukturerade djupintervjuer. Slutsats: Studien finner att placering i livscykeln, psykologiska bias samt erfarenhet samvarierar med den finansiella rådgivarens privata investeringsbeslut och sparande under 2022. Placeringen i livscykeln samvarierar främst med riskaversionen, därutöver har de finansiella rådgivarna inte kunnat motstå fall av samtliga undersökta bias i studien. Erfarenheten samvarierar med en minskad benägenhet att falla offer för vissa psykologiska bias, förutom överkonfidens, där effekten snarare är den motsatta. Vidare anser de finansiella rådgivarna att ytterligare utbildning inom beteendeekonomi inte skulle vara värdeskapande för deras privata investeringsbeslut, samtidigt som de anser sig ha behov av det i sitt arbete. / Background: The year 2022 was characterized by the invasion of Ukraine, the downturn of the stock market, rising inflation and increases in the benchmark interest rate. This led to the increasing search for financial advisors who, using life circumstances, could assist the individual in reaching personal saving goals and maximizing returns on investments. In prior research, there are divided opinions about whether financial advisors contribute to positive financial outcomes for the client. The financial advisors, at least privately, gain knowledge through their work which should lead to a high level of financial literacy. Whether it contributes to positive financial outcomes in the financial advisor's own investment decisions and savings in 2022 thus leads to the question, if they can help others, can they also help themselves? Aim: The study aims to create an understanding of how financial advisers' private investments decisions and savings in 2022 have been affected by various factors such as life situation, psychological bias, and experiences. Furthermore, the study intends to explore financial advisers' perception of how further education in behavioral economics could have contributed to better financial decision-making. Method: A qualitative method has been used to fulfill the purpose of the study. Ten financial advisors were interviewed through semi-structured in-depth interviews. Conclusion: The study finds that placement in the life cycle, psychological bias, and experience had an impact on financial advisors’ private investment decisions and savings during 2022. The placement in the lifecycle primarily influences the risk aversion, while the financial advisors have not been able to withstand cases of all investigated biases in the study. Experience has contributed to mitigating the impact of psychological biases to some extent while also creating overconfidence. The financial advisors believe that additional education in behavioral economics would not add value to their private investment decisions, while they consider themselves to need it in their work.
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Generation Z:s investeringsbeteende i ingången av en lågkonjunktur : En kvantitativ studie om börspsykologiska faktorers påverkan på generation Z:s investeringsbeslut / Generation Z’s investment behavior at the onset of a recession : A quantitative study on the influence of psychological factors ongeneration Z’s investment decisionBoström, Hanna, Dahlström, Samuel January 2023 (has links)
Bakgrund: Efter många år av högkonjunktur är den svenska ekonomin prognostiserad att föras in i en lågkonjunktur under 2023. Hög inflation hanteras med stigande räntor vilket påverkar investerare på flera sätt, men det finns också en rad börspsykologiska faktorer som kan ha en inverkan på investerare och deras beslut. En åldersgrupp som aldrig investerat under en lågkonjunktur är generation Z. Det är därför intressant att undersöka hur börspsykologiska faktorer påverkar generation Z:s investeringsbeslut under ingången av en lågkonjunktur. Syfte: Syftet med arbetet är därför att undersöka och åskådliggöra vilka börspsykologiska faktorer som har en påverkan på generation Z:s beslutsfattande i ingången av en lågkonjunktur. Metod: Studien har antagit en kvantitativ insamlingsmetod med en deduktiv ansats, detta genom en genomgripande litteraturstudie följt av en enkätundersökning. Analysen har antagit ett deskriptivt förhållningssätt men har också bestått av enkel linjär regression. Slutsats: Resultatet av undersökningen visar att det finns tendenser av samtliga börspsykologiska biaser i generation Z. Av regressionsanalysen att döma går det dock endast att utläsa signifikanta samband mellan biaserna overconfidence, herding behaviour och anchoring bias mot generation Z:s investeringsbeslut under ingången av en lågkonjunktur.
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通貨膨脹學習效果之動態投資組合 / Dynamic Portfolio Selection incorporating Inflation Risk Learning Adjustments曾毓英, Tzeng, Yu-Ying Unknown Date (has links)
本研究探討長期投資人在面臨通貨膨脹風險時的最適投資決策。就長期投資者而言,諸如退休金規劃者等,通貨膨脹是無可避免卻又不易被數量化之風險,因為各國僅公布與之相關的消費者物價指數而沒有公布真實通貨膨脹數值,因此我們延伸Campbell和Viceira(2001)及Brennan和Xia(2002)的模型假設,以消費者物價指數的資訊來校正原先假定符合Vasicek模型之通貨膨脹動態過程。本研究之理論背景為:利用貝式過濾方法(Baysian Filtering Method),將含有雜訊之消費者物價指數,透過後驗分配得出通貨膨脹動態過程。利用帄賭過程(Martingale Method)求解資產之公帄價格。再引進定值相對風險趨避(Constant Relative Risk Aversion,CRRA)的效用函數,求出最適投資組合下之期末累積財富、各期資產配置以及效用值。 / 本研究歸納數值結果如下:
一、投資期間越長,通貨膨脹學習效果越顯著。投資期間達25年以上時,有學習效果之累積財富為無學習效果時兩倍以上,25年為2.36倍;30年為2.18倍。此外,學習效果對投資人效用改善率於長期投資時也較顯著,投資10年效用改善率為35%,而投資30年則高達1289%,呈非線性成長。以上結果顯示:資產在市場上累積越久,受到通膨影響越明顯,更需要以學習方式動態調整資產配置進行通貨膨脹風險管理。 / 二、風險較趨避之投資人,CRRA參數值越大;於最適投資組合下之期末財富較少,因為風險較趨避投資人偏好低波動度資產組合。風險容忍度低之投資人較需要通貨膨脹之學習,否則效用減損過高,例如CRRA參數為1.5之投資人30年後效用減損65%,CRRA參數為4之投資人效用減損達96.5%。以上數據顯示:風險趨避投資人對風險關注程度較高,考慮學習效果時,較能根據目前通貨膨脹調整資產配置。 / This study examines the optimal portfolio selection incorporating inflation risk learning adjustments for a long-term investor. For long-term investors, it is inevitable to face the uncertainty of inflation. On the other hand, quantifying inflation risk needs more effort since the government announced the information on Consumer Price Index (CPI) rather than the real inflation rates. / In order to measure the inflation rate in planning the long-term investment strategies, we extend the works in Campbell and Viceira (2001) and Brennan and Xia (2002) to construct a stochastic process of the inflation rate. The prior distribution of inflation rate process, which is not directly observable, is assumed to follow the diffusion process. Based on the information of CPI, we then employ the optimal linear filtering equations to estimate the posterior distribution of the inflation rate process. Through these mechanisms, the inflation rate process is closer to reality by learning from CPI. We also construct the optimal portfolio strategy through a Martingale formulation based on the wealth constraints. The optimal portfolio strategies are given in closed-form solutions. / Furthermore, the importance of learning about inflation risk is summarized through the numerical results.
(1) When the investment interval is longer, the learning effect becomes more significant. If the investment horizon is longer than 25 years, the wealth accumulation under learning will be twice more than that without learning effect, e.g., the wealth accumulation is approximately 2.36, 2.18 folds at the end of 25, 30 years. Utility increase under learning also become larger for long-term investor, e.g., the utility values will improve 35% after considering learning ability on inflation from 10-year interval, improve 1289% from 30 years. / (2)When the CRRA parameter increases, the investor have lower risk tolerance; and their wealth accumulation become less due to the lower volatility portfolio. A conservative investor requires more learning ability given the inflation, otherwise their utility value will be reduced, e.g., the utility values will be reduced 35% when CRRA=1.5 after 30 years’ investment, 96,5% when CRRA=4.
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估價師部分調整行為之研究-以不動產證券化重估價為例 / Appraiser partial adjustment behavior: evidence from T-REITs reappraisals賴靖雯 Unknown Date (has links)
估價平滑相關研究大多採取Quan and Quigley(1991)提出的理性行為解釋估價師的部分調整行為。然而財務行為學認為行為人通常具有非理性的行為,因此本研究以保守性心理偏誤解釋部分調整行為,探討非理性心理對於估價師之影響。為了捕捉估價師個體的行為資訊,本研究以台灣不動產投資信託的重估價結果作為研究資料,檢視估價師對市場新資訊和過去估值的處理行為。本研究首先應用部分調整模型進行實證分析,結果發現台灣估價師確實具有部分調整行為,相對較低估市場價值資訊的權重,而此類保守性偏誤即為總體估價平滑效果的展現。此外進一步以Tobit Model進行市場價值資訊權重的影響因素分析,結果發現市場資訊的權重會受到心理效果而改變,當估價方法價值差異率越大時,估價師會降低市場資訊的權重,展現了對模糊事件的趨避傾向。捷思法可以幫助估價師提升效率,但過度依賴捷思法亦有可能引發錯誤和偏差;本研究發現模糊趨避效果顯示估價師更重視市場資訊的可信度,似較符合估價證據之要求,故非理性心理偏誤對估價師言非全為負面影響。 / Previous appraisal smoothing studies were based on the appraiser rational behavior assumptions which developed by Quan and Quigley (1991) and found that appraisers do insufficiently react to market fluctuate. However, this paper starts with behavioral finance theory to investigate the partial adjustment behavior of Taiwan appraisers, using the reappraisals of Taiwan Real Estate Investment Trust (T-REITs) to show each appraiser’s behavioral intention at disaggregate level which could be diversified away at aggregate level. This study tests the partial adjustment model to observe the weights of new market information and previous estimates of the same property reappraisal. The results show that Taiwan appraisers more rely on the previous estimates, namely the conservatism bias, which will induce the appraisal smoothing at aggregate level. Further, the Tobit Model is employed to test the influence factors of appraisers’ weight on new market information, and the results show weights on new market information will be affected by appraisers’ heuristics. There is a negative effect to weights on new market information which stands for the ambiguity aversion of appraisers. It shows appraiser do concern about the reliability of market evidence which is much accord with the appraisal normative model.
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Survivability enhancement in a combat environmentSeow, Yoke Wei. 12 1900 (has links)
Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / The objective of this thesis is to provide an aircraft with an optimal route to its destination that avoids encroaching into surface-to-air weapons killing envelopes in real time. The optimal route computed will be updated dynamically, depending on the location of the vehicle and the location of the Surface to Air Missile (SAM) sites. The problem was solved using heuristic algorithms instead of the conventional Dijkstra's & Bellman Ford algorithms, which are computationally expensive. Data fusion techniques such as spatial correlation and triangulation algorithms are presented in detail. Such techniques are important for situational awareness in a real time combat environment. Important information provided by onboard sensors are merged with the preplanned data to provide the operator with a better integrated picture of the combat environment. / Civilian, Singapore Ministry of Defense
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Occupational choices and their outcomes in African labour marketsFalco, Paolo January 2011 (has links)
This thesis is an investigation into the microeconomic mechanisms that govern some of the occupational choices faced by workers in Sub-Saharan Africa, and into the monetary and non-monetary returns to their decisions. Chapter 1 begins by exploring the decision process that leads workers to allocate themselves to different occupations within the economy. In particular, I investigate the role of risk-aversion in the allocation of workers between formal and informal jobs in Ghana, hence attempting to explain a fundamental dimension of duality through an investigation into workers' preferences. In my model of sectoral allocation risk-averse workers can opt between entering the free-entry informal sector and queuing for formal occupations. Conditional on identifying the riskier option, the model yields testable implications on the relationship between risk-aversion and workers' allocation. My testing strategy proceeds in two steps. First, using the first three waves of the Ghana Household Urban Panel Survey (GHUPS) dataset, I estimate expected income uncertainty and find it considerably higher in the informal sector than in formal employment. Second, using experimental data to elicit risk-attitudes I estimate the effect of risk-aversion on occupational choices and I find that, in line with the first result, more risk-averse workers are more likely to queue for formal jobs and less likely to be in the informal sector. The conclusion of the first chapter is that attitudes to risk should feature more prominently in models of sector allocation and in the design of labour market policies, in particular when those policies aim to impact workers' vulnerability to risk and uncertainty. Chapter 2 focuses on the largest occupational category in the Developing world, self-employed workers with small productive activities, and it tries to estimate the returns to different productive assets, namely physical capital, labour and human capital. These are the workers that form most of the informal sector analysed in chapter 1, which allows me to draw a direct link with the analysis so far. The chapter begins by specifying a model for the income-generating process grounded in the literature on firms' production and hence abridging the gap between the analysis of individual earnings and the study of firms' value added. Identification in the empirics is achieved by means of panel estimators that are suitable to address the endogeneity of input choices, which derives from both time-varying and time-invariant unobservable heterogeneity. The use of these estimators is made feasible by the length of the Ghanaian Household Urban Panel Survey dataset at CSAE. I also explore issues of endogeneity in the selection of different technologies, defined by their relative capital and labour intensity. Finally, I analyse the shape of returns to capital, with the aim to detect potential non-convexities in technology. The results show that capital and work-experience play the strongest role in income-generation, while the shares of value added attributed to labour and to formal schooling are low. Marginal returns to investment are high at low capital levels and they decrease very rapidly, pointing against the existence of non-convexities due to minimum scale requirements, but implying that real income gains resulting form micro-investment are modest. Chapter 3 returns to the issue of earnings uncertainty and risk-aversion explored in Chapter 1, but it now takes the allocation choice as given and explores the direct welfare implications of income uncertainty for worker's well-being. Namely, the chapter explores the relationship between income and welfare, with a particular attention on the link between income vulnerability and happiness. Using unique longitudinal data on life-satisfaction and labour market outcomes, I estimate an individual measure of vulnerability (defined as the probability of falling below a low-income threshold) and investigate its effect on well-being. After controlling for unobservable individual fixed effects, work-satisfaction, relative income and other relevant worker characteristics, I find a sizable impact of vulnerability, over and above the income effect. When I explore the mechanisms behind my results, I find that aspiration adaptation to current income may result in a transitory income effect. Moreover, using my direct measure of attitudes to risk from field-experiments (already used in chapter 1), I can test directly the hypothesis that more risk-averse agents suffer more heavily from a given increase in income vulnerability. Overall, my findings support policy interventions that aim to reduce vulnerability, as I expect such policies to have a 'direct' impact on agents' happiness given the prevailing attitudes to risk and uncertainty in the population. Finally, from the point of view of overall social welfare, my results suggest that non-Rawlsian growth models, whereby 'someone may be left behind', may fail to enhance general welfare, for high enough levels of risk-aversion in the population, if the risk of falling behind is sufficiently widespread.
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Záhada prémie vlastního kapitálu: přehled literatury a česká data / Equity Premium Puzzle: Literature Review and the Czech DataHrachovec, Miloš January 2013 (has links)
This thesis focuses on the equity premium puzzle, risk-free rate puzzle and possible solutions of these two quantitative conundrums. Original formulation of both puzzles is introduced and comprehensive literature survey is presented to show the developments regarding this topic. These include risk-based explanations, non-risk based explanations and behavioral finance perspective. Main contribution of this study dwells in estimation of these two puzzles for the Czech Republic. Using consumption-based asset pricing model with time separable preferences, presence of the two puzzles is estimated employing annual Czech data from 1995 to 2011. The equity premium puzzle is not present in the Czech Republic, as the coefficient of risk aversion 5.57 . On the other hand, the risk-free rate puzzle is as severe as in developed economies. Furthermore, the individual time preference parameter is estimated to be larger than one - a counterintuitive result suggesting consumers prefer unit of consumption tomorrow to unit of consumption today. Robustness of the results is confirmed when different proxy for a risk-free rate is used. Results do not change significantly and the risk-free rate puzzle persists. Direction for future research of the financial market puzzles in the Czech Republic is suggested.
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Dilema do prisioneiro contínuo com agentes racionais e classificadores de cooperação / Continuous prisoners dilemma with rational agents and cooperation classifiers.Pereira, Marcelo Alves 23 November 2012 (has links)
O dilema do prisioneiro (DP) é um dos principais jogos da teoria dos jogos. No dilema do prisioneiro discreto (DPD), dois prisioneiros têm as opções de cooperar ou desertar. Um jogador cooperador não delata seu comparsa, já um desertor delata. Se um cooperar e o outro desertar, o cooperador fica preso por cinco anos e o desertor fica livre. Se ambos cooperarem, ficam presos por um ano e, se ambos desertarem, ficam presos por três anos. Quando o DP é repetido, a cooperação pode emergir entre agentes egoístas. Realizamos um estudo analítico para o DPD, que produziu uma formulação da evolução do nível médio de cooperação e da tentação crítica (valor de tentação que causa mudança abrupta do nível de cooperação). No dilema do prisioneiro contínuo (DPC), cada jogador apresenta um nível de cooperação que define o grau de cooperação. Utilizamos o DPC para estudar o efeito da personalidade dos jogadores sobre a emergência da cooperação. Para isso, propusemos novas estratégias: uma baseada na personalidade dos jogadores e outras duas baseadas na comparação entre o ganho obtido e a aspiração do jogador. Todas as estratégias apresentavam algum mecanismo de cópia do estado do vizinho com maior ganho na vizinhança, mecanismo este, herdado da estratégia darwiniana. Os resultados mostraram que o DPC aumenta o nível médio de cooperação do sistema, quando comparado ao DPD. No entanto, as diferentes estratégias não aumentaram a cooperação comparado à cooperação obtida com a estratégia darwiniana. Então propusemos o uso do coeficiente de agrupamentos, coeficiente de Gini e entropias de Shannon, Tsallis e Kullback-Leibler para classificar os sistemas, em que os agentes jogam o DPD com a estratégia darwiniana, quanto ao nível de cooperação. Como analisamos valores de médias configuracionais, tais classificadores não foram eficientes ao classificar os sistemas. Isso é consequência da existência de distribuições de extremos nos resultados que compõem as médias. As distribuições de extremos suscitaram uma discussão acerca da definição do regime de cooperação no dilema do prisioneiro. Discutimos também as consequências de utilizar apenas valores médios nos resultados ignorando seus desvios e as distribuições. / Prisoner\'s dilemma (PD) is one of the main games of game theory. In discrete prisoner\'s dilemma (DPD), two prisoners have the options to cooperate or to defect. A cooperator player does not defect his accomplice, while a defector does. If one player cooperates and the other defects, the cooperator gets jailed for five years and the defector goes free. If both cooperate, they get jailed during one year and if both defect, they get jailed during three years. When this game is repeated, cooperation may emerge among selfish individuals. We perform an analytical study for the DPD, that produced a formulation for the evolution of the mean cooperation level and for the critical temptation values (temptation values that promote abrupt modifications in the cooperation level). In continuous prisoner\'s dilemma (CPD), each player has a level of cooperation that defines his/her degree of cooperation. We used the CPD to study the effect of the players\' personality on the emergence of cooperation. For this, we propose new strategies: one based on the players\' personality and two others based on the comparison between the player\'s obtained payoff and the desire one. All strategies present some mechanism that copies the state of the neighbor with the highest payoff in the neighborhood, mechanism inherited from the Darwinian strategy. The results showed that the CPD increases the average cooperation level of the system when compared to DPD. However, different strategies do not increased the cooperation compared to cooperation obtained with the Darwinian strategy. So, we propose the use of cluster coefficient, Gini coefficient and entropy of Shannon, Tsallis and Kullback-Leibler as classifiers to classify systems, in which the individuals play DPD with Darwinian strategy, by the cooperation level. As configurational averages were analyzed, such classifiers were not efficient in classifying the systems. This is due to the existence of distributions with extreme values of the results that compose the means. Distributions with extremes values emerged a discussion about the definition of the cooperation state in the prisoner\'s dilemma. We also discussed the consequences of using only average results in the analysis ignoring their deviations and distributions.
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Evidências da influência dos tipos psicológicos no comportamento dos tomadores de decisões financeiras / Evidence of the influence of psychological types of behavior financial decision makersAlberto, Gabriel Santos 24 September 2014 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2014-09-24 / The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between the theory of psychological types and the decision-making, focusing on behavioral biases, anchoring, overconfidence, representativeness, mental accounting and loss aversion. A questionnaire was developed and 319 valid responses were obtained. We used descriptive statistics, parametric and nonparametric tests, and structural equation modeling, using IBM SPSS Statistics and AMOS. The results show that decision-making is influenced by the dimension extraversion-introversion, sensation-intuition, thinking-feeling, judgment-perception, gender, education, income and age. The extraversion-introversion dimension influence on the anchoring and loss aversion bias, sensation-intuition on the representativeness bias; thinking-feeling on the overconfidence, representativeness and loss aversion bias; judgment-perception on the overconfidence, representativeness, mental accounting and loss aversion bias; gender on the anchoring, overconfidence, representativeness, mental accounting and loss aversion bias; education on the overconfidence, representativeness and loss aversion bias; income on the anchoring, overconfidence, representativeness, mental accounting and loss aversion bias, and age on the anchoring, overconfidence, representativeness and mental accounting bias. This work contributes adding new evidence that behavior of decision makers is influenced by psychological types and therefore bias is possible to be mitigated / O objetivo do trabalho foi verificar a relação entre a teoria dos tipos psicológicos e as decisões dos indivíduos, sob a luz dos vieses comportamentais, ancoragem, excesso de confiança, representatividade, contabilidade mental e aversão a perdas. Foi elaborado um questionário e foram obtidas 319 respostas válidas. Utilizou-se de análises descritivas, teste paramétrico, não paramétrico e modelagem de equações estruturais, utilizando o IBM SPSS Statistics e o AMOS. Os resultados mostram que as tomadas de decisões são influenciadas pela dimensão extroversão-introversão, sensação-intuição, pensamento-sentimento, julgamento-percepção, gênero, escolaridade, renda e idade. A dimensão extroversão-introversão influencia no viés ancoragem e aversão a perdas; a sensação-intuição no viés representatividade, o pensamento-sentimento no viés excesso de confiança, representatividade e aversão a perdas; o julgamento-percepção no viés excesso de confiança, representatividade, contabilidade mental e aversão a perdas; o gênero no viés ancoragem, excesso de confiança, representatividade, contabilidade mental e aversão a perdas; a escolaridade com o viés excesso de confiança, representatividade e aversão a perdas; a renda com o viés ancoragem, excesso de confiança, representatividade, contabilidade mental e aversão a perdas, e a idade com o viés ancoragem, excesso de confiança, representatividade e contabilidade mental. O presente trabalho contribui agregando novas evidências da influência dos tipos psicológicos no comportamento dos tomadores de decisão, que certos tipos psicológicos estão mais propensos a certos vieses comportamentais, e, assim sendo, há possibilidade de mitigar os vieses, seja na esfera corporativa ou governamental
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