Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to study the possible existence of day-of-the-week effects and month-of-the-year effects in the Singapore stock market over the period January 1st 1993 to December 31st 2011. The findings are analysed with the intention of developing investment strategies and to investigate if behavioural finance can help to explain the existence of seasonal anomalies.  Background: A number of previous studies have found evidence of seasonal anomalies in global stock markets, and by challenging the core assumptions of market efficiency, such anomalies may make it possible to predict the movement of stock prices at certain periods during the year. Consequently, there may be substantial profit-making opportunities that clever investors can benefit from, raising two important questions: (1) can such anomalies be strategically used to outperform the market and (2) why do such cyclical return patterns exist? Method: Daily closing prices from the Singapore Straits Times Index (STI) are used to compute average daily and monthly returns, which are further analysed through the use of statistical significance analysis and hypothesis testing to identify the possible existence of day-of-the-week effects and month-of-the-year effects in the Singapore stock market.  The results of the statistical investigation are used to develop investment strategies that are designed to take advantage of both positive and negative effects, and the theories of behavioural finance are applied to help explain why seasonalities occur at certain points in time. Conclusions: This study finds evidence of several seasonal anomalies in the Singapore stock market. Both day-of-the-week effects and month-of-the-year effects are present in the STI over the full sample period. Many of these effects can be explained by behavioural finance, and used to develop investment strategies that outperform the market.

Syfte: Syftet med denna uppsats är att undersöka hur utvalda bolags aktieavkastning inom branscherna flyg, fordon samt olja reagerar vid signifikanta oljeprisförändringar. Teoretiskt perspektiv: Den teoretiska referensramen utgörs av den effektiva marknadshypotesen samt Behavioural Finance med undergrenarna prospect theory, herd behaviour och overconfidence. Metod: Studien utgår ifrån ett deduktivt inslag med en kvantitativ studie. Undersökningen utgörs av sex eventstudier som datainsamlingsmetod samt en intervju som applikation på det kvantitativa resultatet. Urvalskriterium består av tio bolag inom respektive bransch med en rangordning utefter högst omsättning samt företag med en koppling till svenskt näringsliv med högst omsättning. Empiri: Empirin presenteras utifrån diagram och tabeller över de utförda eventstudierna. Diagrammen syftar till att redovisa den avvikande avkastningen för respektive bolag. Tabellerna ger en redogörelse över eventuellt samband mellan respektive bransch och oljeprisförändringarna. Slutsats: Flygbolagen uppvisade samband med oljepriset vid fyra utav sex eventen. Fordonsbranschen uppvisade samband vid ett av de sex eventen och oljebranschen vid två utav de studerade eventen. Reaktionen på aktieavkastningen för bolagen med en koppling till svenskt näringsliv var i linje med de övriga internationella bolagen i branschen. Undantag visades för oljebranschen. Resultatet är en indikation på att andra variabler påverkade aktieavkastningen och detta skapar svårigheter för aktieinnehavare att förespå framtida avkastning.

In this study, we address two research questions: 1) Can we identify bear market episodes in Australia in the past 20 years? 2) How do investors’ moods change as stock market conditions enter into a bear phase. To address the first question, we use a pattern recognition algorithm, called the penalised LSE approach. By defining bear markets as those stock market regimes where the average returns are statistically significantly negative or below the risk free rate, we are able to detect two bear market periods in Australia in the past 20 years. These are the November 1987 to February 1988 and the April 2000 to May 2000 periods. To address the second question, we study the change in investors’ attitudes to varieties of systematic risk and the aggregate number and dollar value of shares traded in portfolios as a result of the regime switch from pre-bear to bear period. Out of the 7 categories of risk considered in this study, the transition from pre-bear to bear regime in both sample periods had a significant impact mainly on investors’ attitude toward the size risk factor. Investors systematically became more sensitive to firm size as stock market conditions entered into the 1987⁄1988 bear market. In the later sample period, investors’ reaction to firm size was more selective as it depended on the characteristics of the stocks that made up their portfolios. We also find that the regime switches resulted in lower portfolio trading volumes. Based on these results we infer that the November 1987-February 1988 bear market evoked a general sad mood, while the April 2000-May 2000 bear market stirred up both angry and sad feelings in market participants depending on the composition of stocks in their portfolios.

Intresset för fondsparformen har ökat de senaste åren och med tanke på att åtta av tio svenskar sparar i fonder är det viktigt att undersöka vad det är som påverkar hur en fond presterar utifrån vem som förvaltar fonden.    Syftet med studien är att bidra med ökad kunskap kring vad det är som påverkar en fondförvaltares prestationer. Studien avser först att undersöka den enskilda fondförvaltarens prestation i form av riskjusterad avkastning utifrån de demografiska aspekterna. Därefter undersöks om grupper presterar bättre eller sämre riskjusterad avkastning än enskild individer och slutligen undersökes om gruppers diversitet, utifrån de demografiska aspekterna, påverkar fondens prestation också mätt i riskjusterad avkastning.   Studien utgår från ett positivistiskt synsätt och en forskningsstrategi med en deduktiv ansats. Metodvalet karaktäriseras av ett kvantitativt tillvägagångssätt där empirin grundar sig på icke-indexfonder i Morningstars kategorisering Sverigefonder.   Studiens övergripande slutsatser är att de olika demografiska aspekterna har olika påverkan på den riskjusterade avkastningen. Grupper presterar generellt sämre än enskilda individer och ju mer diversifierad gruppen är desto sämre blir också resultatet. / The interest of saving in funds has risen in recent years. Since eight of ten Swedes have got savings in funds it’s important to investigate what affects the funds’ performance, based on who manages the fund.   The purpose of the study is to contribute with increased knowledge about what affects the performance of fund managers. The focus of the study is firstly on different demographic aspects and how they affect the risk-adjusted returns. Secondly the study examines whether group performances are superior to individuals. Lastly the study also examines whether more diverse groups perform better than less diverse groups.   The study is based on a positivistic approach and a research strategy with a deductive approach. The method selection is characterized by a quantitative approach where data is based on non-index funds in the Morningstar categorization of Sverigefonder.   The overall conclusions of the study is that different demographical aspects have different effects on the risk-adjusted returns. Groups generally perform worse than individuals and the study also concludes that the more diversified the group gets, the worse the results will be.

This thesis merges the fields of Heterogeneous Agent Models (HAMs) and Be- havioural Finance in order to bridge the main deficiencies of both approaches and to examine whether they can complement one another. Our approach suggests an alternative tool for examining HAM price dynamics and brings an original way of dealing with problematic empirical validation. First, we present the original model and discuss various extensions and attempts at empirical estimation. Next, we develop a unique benchmark dataset, covering five par- ticularly turbulent U.S. stock market periods, and reveal an interesting pattern in this data. The main body applies a numerical analysis of the HAM extended with the selected Behavioural Finance findings: herding, overconfidence, and market sentiment. Using Wolfram Mathematica we perform Monte Carlo sim- ulations of a developed algorithm. We show that the selected findings can be well modelled via the HAM and that they extend the original HAM consider- ably. Various HAM modifications lead to significantly different results and HAM is also able to partially replicate price behaviour during turbulent stock market periods. Bibliographic Record Kukačka, J. (2011): Behavioural Breaks in the Heterogeneous Agent Model. Master thesis, Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences,...

BAKGRUNDLäkemedelsindustrin är en starkt växande bransch som historiskt har genererat en hög avkastning på finansmarknaden. Läkemedelsutvecklingen är en lång och komplicerad process vilket skapar osäkerhet kring hur läkemedelsbolagen ska värderas. Osäkerhetsfaktorerna i värderingsprocessen kan leda till att analytiker tar genvägar vilket påverkar den slutgiltiga värderingen. Hur osäkerheten bemöts och vilka faktorer som faktiskt bygger värderingen kan därför vara svår att förstå för investerare. SYFTESyftet med studien är att beskriva och analysera hur värdering av små läkemedelsbolag går till i praktiken. Vidare är syftet att analysera hur analytiker bemöter osäkerhetsfaktorerna i branschen, om vedertagna fundamentala värderingsmetoder och tillvägagångssätt existerar samt i vilken utsträckning dessa är förenliga med befintlig teori. METODDenna kvalitativa uppsats tar sin utgångspunkt i en deduktiv ansats. En fallstudiedesign har använts för att studera små läkemedelsbolag och genom intervjuer med aktieanalytiker har studiens frågeställningar besvarats. SLUTSATSSmå läkemedelsbolag värderas med DCF-modellen där modellen tillämpas på olika sätt av analytikerna. Osäkerheten som råder i branschen innebär att analytiker måste göra flera avvägningar. I praktiken anses många faktorer vara för osäkra eller tidskrävande för att inkluderas i värderingen. Teorin tar inte hänsyn till dessa aspekter vilken menar på att värderingen ska vara så fullständig som möjligt. I praktiken är värderingarna en produkt som ska säljas till investerare vilket försvårar för analytikerna att använda komplexa och matematiska metoder. Detta innebär att analytikerna måste ta hänsyn till den extra tid som ett värderingsbeslut tar i relation till det extra mervärde beslutet ger. / BACKGROUND The Pharmaceutical industry is a fast growing industry which historically have generated a high return on financial markets. Drug development is a long and complicated process which creates uncertainty regarding how pharmaceutical companies should be valued. The uncertainty factors in the valuation process can lead analysts to opt into shortcuts which have effect on the final valuation. How the uncertainty is dealt with and what the valuation actually is based on can be difficult for investors to comprehend. PURPOSEThe purpose of the study is to describe and analyse how valuation of small pharmaceutical companies goes into practice. The purpose is also to highlight how analysts address the uncertainty factors within the industry, if established fundamental valuation methods and approaches exist and to what extent they are consistent with existing theory. METHODThis qualitative study takes its starting point in a deductive approach. A case study design has been used to study small pharmaceutical companies. The research questions have been answered using interviews with equity analysts. CONCLUSIONSmall pharmaceutical companies are valued with the DCF-model. However, there are differences how analysts choose to apply the method. The uncertainty within the industry results in analysts being forced to use approximations. In practice, many factors are considered to unsecure or time consuming to be included in the valuation. The theories regarding valuation of small pharmaceutical companies does not take this problem in consideration and only focuses on reaching an estimate that is as correct as possible. In practice a valuation is a product intended to be sold to investors, this prevents analysts from using complex and mathematical methods. This means that the analysts must take into account the extra time that a valuation decision takes and put it in perspective of the value added to valuation.

WHAT WAS DONE? This study researches the success of several value investment strategies in the stock markets of the United Kingdom and Germany based on nine firm fundamentals that are extracted from listed firms annual financial statements. In this regard, we first examine alternative forecast combination methods in a novel way to utilise fully the financial information at hand. Second, we examine the drivers of investment returns, particularly the role of information uncertainty, for which a new direct measure is developed. Finally, we evaluate the performance of these financial health investment strategies in alternative institutional environments by focusing on the differences between the two markets regarding both their corporate culture and their legal environment. WHY WAS IT DONE? Similar to economics, the discipline of finance is a social science because its observations emanate from economic transactions between humans. Nevertheless, a significant part of the research in this area is undertaken by means that are almost exclusively applied to the natural sciences, such as mathematics or physics. Although the reasons seem manifold, an increased form of scientificity, in conjunction with greater credibility of the research process and results, is deemed to be of primary importance. However, the benchmark for evaluating these research outcomes differs from those used in the natural sciences. From the example of the efficient market hypothesis one can see that alternative research results that cast serious doubt upon efficiency per se are disregarded as aberrations, leading to the assumption that the hypothesis in its entirety is more or less valid. This study assumes that inefficiencies in the stock market do exist for prolonged periods of time and investors are actually able to benefit from them. HOW WAS IT DONE? Secondary financial statement data of listed companies in the United Kingdom and Germany were downloaded from Datastream for the period between 1992 and 2010. A quantitative analysis of the significance of the correlation between groups of firms with similar financial characteristics and their one-year-ahead stock returns was subsequently performed. Various combination methods for differential weighting of individual financial statement items were conducted. The aim was to increase the profitability of the investment strategy. WHAT WAS FOUND? In general, a classification of stocks according to certain internal criteria of financial health is capable of separating future winners from losers and at the same time confirms the results of a previous US study. More specifically, we first show that a wide range of combination methods generate profitable investment strategies whereby especially measures of profitability are the central indicator of a firm s future performance. Secondly, the more complex methods neither consistently nor substantively outperform the simpler methods. Thirdly, information uncertainty does not seem to be the prime driver of the profitability of an investment strategy. Lastly, we show that financial health investment strategies are profitable both in market-oriented, common law settings and in bank-oriented, code law settings.

Bakgrund: Generation Y riskerar få en lägre pension i framtiden än de som går i pensionidag. För att upprätthålla en acceptabel levnadsstandard krävs därför att de själva tar stortansvar för sitt pensionssparande. Det finns dock stor risk att deras finansiella beslutpräglas av beteendefinansiella faktorer och deras nivå av finansiell bildning. Utöver detfattar personer i olika demografiska grupper olika finansiella beslut. Generation Ybeskrivs dessutom som otåliga och har visat sig ha dåliga finansiella vanor. För att enacceptabel levnadsstandard ska kunna uppnås för Generation Y även då de är pensionärerär det därför viktigt att förstå vilka faktorer som kan påverka deras långsiktiga sparande. Syfte: Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka hur beteendefinansiella faktorer,finansiell bildning samt demografiska faktorer samvarierar med svenska Generation Y:slångsiktiga sparande. Metod: Studien genomfördes med en kvantitativ metod där empiri i form av enkätdatabearbetats. En linjär multipel regressionsanalys har genomförts för att undersöka hur debeteendefinansiella faktorerna kortsiktighet, självkontroll och övertro, finansiell bildningsamt demografiska faktorer samvarierar med svenska Generation Y:s långsiktigasparande. Även t-tester har genomförts för att undersöka om skillnader för det långsiktigasparandet samt för de beteendefinansiella faktorerna förekommit för olika grupper. Slutsats: Studien visar att de beteendefinansiella faktorerna kortsiktighet, självkontrolloch övertro, samt den demografiska faktorn sysselsättning hade en statistiskt signifikantsamvariation med Generation Y:s långsiktiga sparande för studiens urval. Det fanns ävenstatistiskt signifikanta skillnader i nivå av kortsiktighet och övertro för olikademografiska grupper. / Background: Generation Y is at risk for a substantially lower public retirement incomparison to today's retirees. Therefore, it is of great importance that Generation Yunderstands the necessity of private savings to be able to maintain a sustainable standardof living throughout their lives. However, Generation Y's financial decisions might beinfluenced by behavioral biases, financial literacy and various demographic factors. Inaddition, Generation Y is described as impatient and have been found to haveunsustainable financial habits. For them to maintain a sustainable standard of livingthroughout their lives, it is therefore of great importance to understand what factors thatcorrelate with their long-term saving behaviour. Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to examine how behavioural biases, financialliteracy and demographic factors correlate with the long-term saving behaviour amongthe Swedish Generation Y. Methodology: To adequately approach this study a quantitative research method hasbeen applied. The data was collected from a survey. A linear multiple regression analysiswas performed to examine the correlation between long-term saving and behaviouralbiases, financial literacy and demographic factors. Furthermore, t-tests were performedto examine the differences in the level of long-term savings and behavioural biases amongsub-groups. Conclusion: The study concludes that the behavioural biases present bias, self-controland overconfidence, and the demographic factor occupation had statistically significantcorrelations with the long-term savings of the Swedish Generation Y with regard to thesample in this study. Furthermore, there were statistically significant differences in thelevel of present bias and overconfidence in different demographic groups.

Bakgrund: Under våren år 2020 drabbades aktiemarknaden av coronapandemins påföljder. På en månad minskade Stockholmsbörsens värde med 30% men var åter tillbaka på rekordnivåer sex månader senare. Ett liknande börsras inträffade under hösten samma år, men då var värdeminskningen mindre och återhämtningen ännu snabbare. Vid varje upp- och nedgång måste den privata investeraren göra viktiga finansiella beslut om att sälja eller att fortsätta tro på portföljen, där eventuella börspsykologiska biases kan bidra till en suboptimal avkastning. Coronapandemin och dess effekt på aktiemarknaden innebar en möjlighet att undersöka hur bias har påverkat privata investerares finansiella beslut under året 2020.   Syfte: Studien har som syfte att undersöka huruvida psykologiska fallgropar påverkat investerare vid marknadsnedgången under våren 2020, samt jämföra med forskning från tidigare kriser i den mån det är möjligt. Vidare ämnar studien att undersöka i vilken utsträckning privata investerares finansiella beslut i mars 2020 influerade besluten under nedgången i oktober under samma år.   Metod: I studien genomförs 8 kvalitativa, semi-strukturerade djupintervjuer med privata investerare. Utifrån detta har en helhetsbild över hur dessa investerare reagerat och blivit påverkade av fallgropar bildats utifrån existerande teori, i mån av att uppfylla studiens syfte.  Slutsats: Studien finner att privata investerare har upplevt en stark påverkan av psykologiska bias under den studerade perioden. Av de undersökta fallgroparna är det primärt överkonfidens och social interaktion som har haft störst påverkan. Kännedomen är generellt låg om beteendefinans vilket visar sig i att respondenterna har svårt att förhålla sig till dessa bias och därvid bemöta dem. Vid de tillfällen som det finns en kännedom om fallgroparna visar det dock en förstärkt möjlighet att minska dess påverkan. Studien identifierar vissa skillnader i respondenternas beteende under våren gentemot hösten 2020, detta är dock i mindre grad. Vidare är det inte möjligt för studien att i större utsträckning konstatera om påverkan av bias på något vis påverkat respondenternas resultat under perioden. / Background: In the spring of 2020, the stock market was struck by the repercussions of the corona pandemic. The Stockholm stock exchange lost 30% of its value over the course of a month, which only required half a year to fully recover from. A similar market crash occurred in the fall of the same year, but had a smaller deflation and a faster recovery. With each fluctuation, the private investor must make important financial decisions to either sell or to hold. This provides space for potential biases that could bring negative effects on the portfolio yield. The corona pandemic and its effect on the stock market provided an opportunity to examine how biases have affected the financial decisions of private investors during 2020. Purpose: The purpose of the study is to examine whether psychological biases have affected private investors during the stock market decline in spring 2020, and compare the results to prior research in past crises. Furthermore, the study intends to examine the extent to which private investors' financial decisions in March 2020 influenced their decisions during the stock market decline in October 2020. Method: The study consists of eight qualitative, semi-structured interviews with private investors. Based on these answers and reflections a conclusive picture is formed out of the existing theories in order to fulfill the purpose of the study. Conclusion: The thesis finds that private investors have experienced a great impact of psychological biases during the studied period. Out of the examined biases, overconfidence and social interaction are those that displayed the largest impact. The awareness of behavioral finance was generally low among the respondents of the study, which resulted in them having a hard time relating to and managing the biases. At times when respondents had awareness of a bias, the possibility of reducing its impact seemed enhanced. The study also identified some differences in respondent behavior during the spring compared to the autumn of 2020, though to a lesser extent. Furthermore, it is not possible to establish that an impact of bias affected the financial results of the respondents in this study.

Studying whether new trading rules provide higher returns than the buy-and-hold strategy is relevant for both finance theory and the asset management field. In this thesis, we examine the profitability of the newly proposed trading strategy based on the concept of price overreaction on eight developed stock indices. In comparison to other studies, we extend a definition of price overreaction with an inclusion of a minimum volatility threshold. Based on the Ordinary Least Squares model, we find that a volatility condition significantly improves the predictability of return reversals after positive price overreaction. For comparison with the buy-and-hold, we use Hansen's Superior Predictive Ability test that corrects the data snooping bias. Despite better annualised returns during in-sample and out-of-sample periods, the results show that the proposed strategy is not superior to the buy-and-hold at any stock index due to heavy reliance on the predictions of the largest declines. Nevertheless, we confirm the effect of decoupling (flight to quality) that can positively affect our strategy, but only when we do not take into account transaction costs. In the end, we summarize behavioural concepts that lie behind our strategy as the overreaction and decoupling are mostly justified with cognitive biases.