The growth of private equity, as well as consolidation trends across other industries, have produced a strong and vibrant mergers and acquisitions market. A challenge during these acquisitions is information asymmetry, which makes agreeing on the transaction price a challenge. An increasingly popular instrument to get around this problem is to use earnout contracts, which puts the difference between what the buyer is willing to pay and what the seller is willing to accept as contingent on future performance of the company. This thesis focuses on testing four different models for estimating the expected pay-out of earnout contracts. The investigated models were geometric Brownian motion, autoregressive integrated moving average, artificial neural network and a hybrid model to forecast the underlying metrics which were used with Monte Carlo methods to compute the expected pay-out of the earnout contract. Furthermore, a bankruptcy adjusted and a model using implied market volatility were evaluated. The results were that the hybrid model showed the most promising predictions when estimating the expected pay-out. The bankruptcy adjustment was not successful since the model failed to reach sufficient accuracy. Using implied market volatility showed inconclusive results. / Tillväxten för riskkapital-industrin och konsolideringstrender inom andra industrier har resulterat i en aktiv marknad för bolagsförvärv. En tydlig utmaning under ett förvärv är informationsasymmetri, vilket gör det svårt att komma överens om bolagets värdering. En alltmer vanlig metod för att lösa detta problem är att använda en tilläggsköpeskilling. Ett sådant kontrakt placerar skillnaden mellan vad köparen är villig att betala och vad säljaren är villig att acceptera som en option baserad på bolagets framtida prestation. Detta examensarbete fokuserade på att testa fyra olika modeller för att skatta den framtida utbetalningen från tilläggsköpeskillingar. De utvärderade modellerna var baserade på geometrisk brownsk rörelse, autoregressive integrated moving average, artificiellt neuralt nätverk och en hybridmodell vilka användes för att generera prediktioner för optionernas underliggande mått. Dessa användes sedan för att med hjälp av Monte Carlo simulering skatta den förväntade utbetalningen från tilläggsköpeskillingen. Utöver detta testades en modell med justering av konkursrisk samt en modell baserad på implicerad volatilitet från börsnoterade optioner. Resultaten visade att hybridmodellen gav bäst prediktioner av den förväntade utbetalningen. Den konkursjusterade modellen påvisade inga signifikanta resultat då den ej nådde tillräckligt hög prediktionsförmåga. Användningen av implicerad marknadsvolatilitet gav ingen tydlig och statistiskt signifikant förbättring.

Finding the optimal capital structure has been a relevant subject for many decades. Therehas for a long time been a discrepancy between observed leverage ratio and those proposedby theory, with many different theories suggested and developed throughout time. One ofthose theories is the Contingent Claims Analysis (CCA). Based initially on Black & Scholes’option-pricing theory and formulas, and pioneered by Merton, the CCA-methodology hasthroughout the years been developed further and moved from pricing liabilities todetermining capital structures. The research and development on CCA-models have for thepast years mostly been on a theoretical level and less about its practical applicability. Thosefew applications that have been made were based on the U.S. market and companies.Ju and Ou-Yang developed one of the most recent CCA-methodologies in 2006,abbreviated as the JOY-model in this study. What distinguishes this model is its ability toshow the non-monotone relation of debt maturity and debt face amount through the morecomplex tradeoffs between tax benefits, bankruptcy costs and transactions cost. With a fewchanges made to it, and with almost all data from the Swedish market and companies, theJOY-model yields higher leverage ratios than what the 5 analyzed companies have today.The optimal leverage ratio, defined as debt value/firm value ranges from 10 – 40% and theoptimal debt maturity period is at 4 – 6 years. Out of all the model parameters, the long-runmean of the stochastic risk-free interest rate has the biggest impact on the final results. TheJOY-model and CCA in general are complex and resource intense models that need certainimprovements. Nonetheless, its overall potential is still promising.

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This thesis uses the case study of the Fallas festival in the city of Valencia (Spain), to assess the value of intangible cultural heritage. Within this framework the thesis explores a number of different issues: for example how social agents frame different qualities and benefits of cultural heritage in order to describe the value and claims for funding the arts. It finds that value assessment for claiming funds presents many challenges such as: identifying the values of the heritage in question; describing them; and ranking them according to their contribution to the public welfare. It examines the methodological techniques for assessing heritage values and goes on to discuss a number of tools that are, or could be, used for assessment. The thesis also explores how public bodies legitimise cultural funding. It examines the role of non-government arts organisations in supporting the arts. It proposes the analysis of donor decisions through a multi-attribute technique where donors state their importance to donor situations under specific conditions or attributes. Finally, it describes how the stakeholder approach can be applied for searching new ways of funding festivals. It also considers how intangible cultural heritage goods can be assessed within the process of cost-benefit evaluation. It also analyses how public bodies, as the principal supporters of culture, deal with the problem of valuing intangibles on social investments. The study uses the Fallas festival to test the research hypothesis. It uses a number of economic and statistical techniques to evaluate the Fallas Festival, these include Contingent Valuation, Choice Experiment and Descriptive and Multiatribute Statistics. The statistical techniques reveal that historical benefits are intrinsically valuable in the Fallas festival. The historical value that the members of the neighbourhood associations place on the Fallas festival justify that local social agents should support this festival. / Sánchez Royo, B. (2011). AN APPROACH TOWARDS HOLISTIC ASSESSMENT OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/12269

Die vorliegende Dissertation beinhaltet drei Studien, welche die kognitiven und neuronalen Grundlagen der Kontrollregulation – ausgelöst durch vorherige Konflikte, konfliktankündigende Hinweise sowie Arousal – untersuchen. Jede Studie basierte auf Interferenzaufgaben mit Durchgängen, die Reaktionskonflikt auslösten (inkompatibel) oder nicht (kompatibel). Studie 1 untersuchte, ob Abfolge abhängigen Verhaltensanpassungen äquivalent sind mit erwartungsbasierten Kontrollprozessen, die durch Hinweise auf die Kompatibilität der nächsten Aufgabe ausgelöst werden. Behaviorale und elektroenzephalographische (EEG) Maße belegten, dass diese Prozesse dissoziieren. Die kontingente negative Variation (CNV), eine EEG Komponente, die Aufgabenantizipation indiziert, zeigte, dass von der Abfolge anhängige Kontrollanpassungen bereits zwischen den Durchgängen agieren. Studie 2 fokussierte auf Prozesse und neuronale Substrate der Kontrollantizipation durch Hinweise. Kompatibilitätshinweise begünstigten effektiv die Leistung, vergrößerten die CNV vor dem nächsten Durchgang und reduzierten konfliktbezogene Konfliktverarbeitung, wie sie durch die N2 Komponente indiziert wird. Im Gegensatz zur Kontrollbedingung gab es keine Anzeichen von Reaktionskonflikt, was auf präemptive Strategien hinweist (d.h. a priori Konfliktverhinderung durch Umschreibung von Bedingungs-Handlungs-Regeln). Funktionelle Bildgebung bestätigte dies, da sie Beteiligung neuronaler Netzwerke zeigte, die eher mit Regelelaboration und –aufrechterhaltung einhergehen als mit Konfliktüberwachung und –lösung. Studie 3 untersuchte das Verhältnis von Handlungskontrolle und Arousalniveau. Toninduziertes Arousal verbesserte Leistung in inkompatiblen und kompatiblen Durchgängen, wobei letztere stärker begünstigt wurden. N1 und N2 im EEG wiesen darauf hin, dass die Effekte auf bessere frühe perzeptuelle Diskriminierung und Aufmerksamkeitszuteilung zurückgehen. / The present dissertation contains three studies that investigated the cognitive and neuronal basis underlying action control regulation prompted by prior conflicts, cues predicting conflict, as well as the state of arousal. These studies were based on inference paradigms involving trials that either induced response conflict (incompatible trials) or did not (compatible trials). Study 1 examined whether behavioral adjustments due to the trial sequence are equivalent to expectancy-based adjustments triggered by cues predicting compatibility. Behavioral and electroencephalographic (EEG) measures showed dissociation of these processes. The contingent negative variation (CNV), a pre-target EEG component indexing task anticipation, further indicated that sequence-related control adjustments already act in the intertrial interval. Study 2 focused on processes and neural substrates underlying cue-based anticipatory control. Cues predicting compatibility effectively benefitted behavioral performance, enhanced the pre-target CNV, and reduced post-target conflict-related processing, as indicated by the N2 component. In contrast to the control condition, indicators of response conflict were absent, a result pointing to conflict preemption strategies (a priori avoidance of conflict via transformation of condition-action rules). Functional neuroimaging fostered this conclusion by showing the involvement of neuronal networks associated with rule elaboration and maintenance rather than with conflict monitoring or resolution. Study 3 investigated the interrelation of action control and the state of arousal. Tone-induced arousal improved performance in both incompatible and compatible trials, whereas the latter ones were relatively more accelerated. N1 and N2 in EEG indicated that these effects are due to enhanced early perceptual discrimination and attentional allocation.

L’aléa, véritable « cœur » du contrat d’assurance, ne finit pas de susciter les interrogations lorsqu’il s’agit de préciser plus techniquement son rôle, tout comme sa raison d’être. En première ligne se situe naturellement le débat relatif à la qualification des formes contemporaines d’assurance vie : ce dernier, haut lieu de controverse doctrinale depuis des années, ne s’est toujours pas apaisé malgré l’impressionnant nombre d’études consacrées au sujet. En parallèle, le thème de l’aléa dans les contrats fait également l’objet d’un vif regain d’intérêt, s’invitant dans les colloques et les ouvrages les plus récents. Plus que jamais, les notions de contrat d’assurance et de contrat aléatoire se retrouvent donc au cœur de la polémique. Et cette dernière peut aller bon train, tant le débat reste enfermé dans cette idée courante qu’un contrat est un acte nécessairement créateur d’obligations. Ainsi, l’on s’attache bien souvent à mettre en évidence le déséquilibre des obligations des parties (caractéristique des contrats aléatoires) avant de s’interroger sur son existence dans le contrat d’assurance. Mais cette approche obligationnelle de la structure contractuelle est-elle véritablement pertinente ? Ne devrait-on pas, au contraire, concevoir plus largement les effets de l’acte juridique, et consacrer juridiquement une idée somme toute assez commune dans le langage courant des praticiens : celle d’un transfert de risque ? A l’approche obligationnelle classique, exclusivement focalisée sur l’analyse des prestations des parties (paiement de la prime par le souscripteur ; règlement du sinistre voire couverture du risque par l’assureur), se substituerait ainsi une approche réelle, davantage axée sur le transfert de risque opéré entre les parties. Cette approche réelle, à bien des égards séduisante par rapport à l’approche obligationnelle, permettrait ainsi de porter – entre autres – un regard différent sur la problématique inhérente aux formes contemporaines d’assurance vie. / Hazard is well known for being at the heart of the insurance contract. Nonetheless, it does not stop raising questions about its precise role and raison d’être. Firstly, the debate deals with the qualification of contemporary forms of life insurance; Mecca of doctrinal controversy for years, it still remains topical in spite of the impressive number of studies. Meanwhile, contingency is of intense interest in civil contract law, as well as subject to recent seminars and latest books. More than ever, the notions of insurance contract and of aleatory contract appear as being the “core” issues of a controversy which keeps going well, because the debate may be limited by the idea that a contract is necessarily an act that creates obligations. Thus, the imbalance between the parties’ obligations - characteristic of aleatory contracts – is often highlighted before questioning its existence in the insurance contract. However, it may be wondered as whether to know if such an “obligational” approach of the contract is truly relevant. On the contrary, shouldn’t we consider the effects of the contract through a wider point of view, in order to admit – legally – a quite common idea in everyday language: the transfer of risk? Unlike the obligational approach which is solely focused on the performances of both parties (premium paid by the taker; compensation paid out of the claim or even risk covered by the insurer), that “real” approach would be more focused on the risk that is transferred between the contracting parties. Such a real approach, which seems to be highly more attractive than the obligational one, would offer - among others - a different perspective within the debate that is inherent to the contemporary forms of life insurance.

The purpose of the study was to investigate what the personnel considers about transactional and transformational leadership regarding the leader's use of contingent reward, management by exception, charisma/inspirational leadership, intellectual stimulation and individualized consideration leadership. For this qualitative study, a semi- structured interview guide was used to investigate six employee perceptions of the leadership styles on a company in central Sweden. The result was analyzed by deductive thematic methodology to identify keywords linked to respective theme and subcategory based on the Bass Factor Model (1985) (Avolio, Bass & Jung, 1999) division of leadership. The result presents the personnel’s perspective and adds to the knowledge of the employees view on meaning and implication of leadership. The result gives a picture of both transactional and transformational leadership as oriented to satisfying the needs of the employees in a workplace. The findings can give the organization greater understanding of how leadership can be applied to the workplace according to employee interests. / Syftet med studien var att undersöka vad personalen anser om transaktionellt och transformativt ledarskap avseende ledarens användande av villkorad belöning, leda genom avvikelser, karismatiskt/inspirerande, intellektualiserande och individualiserande ledarskap. För denna kvalitativa studie användes en semistrukturerad intervjuguide för att undersöka sex medarbetares uppfattningar av ledarskapsstilarna på ett företag i mellersta Sverige. Materialet analyserades genom deduktiv tematisk metod för att identifiera nyckelord kopplade till respektive tema och underkategori baserade på Bass faktormodell (1985) (Avolio, Bass & Jung, 1999). Resultatet presenterar personalens perspektiv på ledarskap och bidrar med kunskap om hur medarbetarna ser på betydelsen och tillämpningen av ledarskap. Det framkom en bild av både transaktionellt och transformativt ledararskap som inriktat på att tillfredsställa medarbetares behov i arbetslivet. Resultatet kan ge organisationen ökad förståelse för hur ledarskap kan tillämpas på arbetsplatsen enligt medarbetarnas intressen.