本論文探討公司負債到期結構的實證決定因素。本研究首先選取台灣一般製造業104家樣本，使用複迴歸進行分析，結果顯示此104家樣本公司市價對帳面價值比與實質稅率的係數估計值為負，證明高成長和高預期代理成本的公司，擁有長於三年到期結構負債的比率顯著的較低，驗證資訊不對稱程度較高的企業較不偏好長期負債的假說，並與理論的預測相同。對於負債到期結構之其他三項決定因素，即資產年限、變異性、與超額盈餘而言，結果和假說理論及國外實證研究結果不合，無法驗證資產與負債年限相配之假說，同時以負債到期結構與超額盈餘傳遞訊息假說之理論亦無法成立。由於此六項決定因素皆不具統計顯著性，故而再選取電子業31家樣本進行實證研究。此上市公司電子業31家的實證結果支持代理成本與負債到期結構之間具有負相關的假說，以及企業會配合公司資產年限和負債到期結構的相配假說；然而，實證結果無法驗證此31家電子產業的負債到期結構與企業規模呈現正相關，也無法驗證負債到期結構和公司價值的變異性、超額報酬具有負相關的假說。此外，研究結果並不支持稅負會影響負債到期結構的說法，以及企業會利用負債到期結構發佈訊息的假設。 / This paper investigates the empirical determinants of corporate debt maturity structure by exploring the possible relations between the firm’s debt maturity structure and six firm-specific characteristics of agency-related costs, size, signaling, asset maturity, taxes and variability. This is done by testing the theoretical model of debt maturity structure first using a cross-sectional data set of 104 non-financial Taiwan firms, and then using a data set of 31 Taiwan electronic firms. The results of the test on the 104 non-financial Taiwan firms shows that agency-costs, asset-maturity and taxes exert negative impacts on debt maturity, while size, variability and abcdrmal profit have positive impacts on debt maturity. However, none of these determinants are significant on the debt maturity structure decisions. As for the 31 Taiwan electronic firms, the evidence lends considerable support to the prediction that the impact of agency-costs on debt maturity is negative. The findings also provide support for the notion that these firms match the maturity of their debt to that of their assets. Though firm size is positively associated with debt maturity, it is not a significant determinant. The empirical analysis provides no evidence that taxes and volatility of firm value affect debt maturity structure. Finally, the empirical results are not supportive of the signaling hypothesis that Taiwan electronic firms use their debt maturity structure to signal information to the market.

L’objectif de cette thèse est d’étudier le rôle des actionnaires contrôleurs dans la prise de décisions financières des entreprises. En particulier, elle met l’accent sur l’effet de la présence et du pouvoir de vote des actionnaires contrôleurs multiples (ACM) sur la prise de risque de l’entreprise, la maturité de la dette et le choix de la source d’endettement. La thèse est composée de trois essais sur le rôle que peuvent jouer les ACM en termes de gouvernance d’entreprise.Le premier essai, intitulé étudie le rôle des ACM dans la prise de risque au sein de l’entreprise. L’utilisation d’un échantillon d’entreprises familiales françaises cotées en bourse sur la période 2003‒2012 montre que la présence, le nombre et le pouvoir de vote des ACM sont associés à une prise de risque plus élevée. Les résultats suggèrent que les ACM contribuent à limiter la propension des propriétaires familiaux à entreprendre des investissements à faible risque. Cet effet est beaucoup plus fort dans les entreprises où les conflits d’agence sont plus susceptibles d’exister. Les résultats mettent en évidence l’importance du rôle de gouvernance joué par les ACM et peuvent améliorer notre compréhension de l’effet de ces actionnaires sur la performance des entreprises familiales.Le deuxième essai, examine le rôle que peuvent jouer les ACM dans la détermination de la maturité de la dette de leurs entreprises. La littérature en gouvernance d’entreprise a montré que les actionnaires contrôleurs peuvent détourner à leurs profits les ressources de leurs entreprises au détriment des autres actionnaires. Un tel comportement conduit ces actionnaires dominants à préférer l’endettement à long terme pour réduire la fréquence du contrôle effectué par les créanciers, ce qui peut créer des conflits entre l’actionnaire dominant et les actionnaires minoritaires portant sur la structure de la maturité de la dette. Dans ce chapitre, nous examinons si la présence des ACM contribue à atténuer ces conflits. À partir de données collectées sur des entreprises françaises cotées en bourse et observées sur la période 1998‒2013, nous trouvons que les entreprises avec des ACM ont tendance à se financer par des dettes à court terme. Ce résultat suggère que la présence des ACM réduit l’extraction de bénéfices privés par l’actionnaire contrôleur, ce qui permet d’enrayer sa tendance à préférer l’endettement à long terme.Le troisième essai, intitulé examine l’effet de la présence et du pouvoir de vote des ACM sur le choix de la source de la dette. Nous utilisons un échantillon de 6 238 observations couvrant 654 entreprises françaises cotées sur la période 1998‒2013. Nous constatons que la présence des ACM et leur pouvoir de vote augmentent le recours à la dette bancaire. De plus, nous trouvons que l’effet des ACM sur le choix de la dette est plus important lorsque les problèmes d’agence entre l’actionnaire dominant et les actionnaires minoritaires sont plus sévères. Dans l’ensemble, nos résultats suggèrent que les ACM réduisent l’opportunisme de l’actionnaire majoritaire qui cherche à se prémunir contre la surveillance bancaire, conduisant à plus de dépendance à l’égard de la dette bancaire. / The present dissertation is a collection of three essays. The first one investigates the role of multiple large shareholders (MLS) in corporate risk-taking. Using a sample of publicly listed French family firms over the period 2003‒2012, we show that the presence, number and voting power of MLS, beyond the controlling owner, are associated with higher risk-taking. Our results suggest that MLS help restrain the propensity of family owners to undertake low-risk investments. This effect is much stronger in firms that are more susceptible to agency conflicts. The results highlight the important governance role played by MLS in family firms and may explain why MLS are associated with higher firm performance.The second essay studies the relation between MLS, beyond the controlling owner, and corporate debt maturity. We employ a large data set of French publicly traded firms during the period 1998–2013 and we find strong evidence that firms with MLS exhibit shorter debt maturity. This result indicates that MLS curb the extraction of private benefits by the controlling owner and reduce her preference for less monitoring through the use of longer maturity debt. The findings are robust to a number of checks, including addressing endogeneity concerns and using alternative sample compositions and alternative regression frameworks.The third essay examines the effect of MLS on the choice of debt source. Using a sample of 6,238 firm–year observations covering 654 French listed firms from 1998 to 2013, we show that reliance on bank debt financing increases with the presence of MLS and with their contestability of the controlling owner’s power. Moreover, we find that the effect of MLS on debt choice is more pronounced when agency problems between controlling and minority shareholders are more severe. Taken together, our results suggest that the presence of MLS reduces the incentive of the controlling owner to avoid scrutiny and to insulate herself from bank monitoring, leading to more reliance on bank debt.

Submitted by Letícia Gera Gouvêa de Albuquerque (leticiagera@yahoo.com.br) on 2015-06-24T00:36:48Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTACAO FINAL.pdf: 342885 bytes, checksum: cb87377d99619766da03af5a43c885d8 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Pamela Beltran Tonsa (pamela.tonsa@fgv.br) on 2015-06-24T14:11:49Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTACAO FINAL.pdf: 342885 bytes, checksum: cb87377d99619766da03af5a43c885d8 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-06-24T15:34:31Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTACAO FINAL.pdf: 342885 bytes, checksum: cb87377d99619766da03af5a43c885d8 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-05-15 / This study provides an empirical investigation of the determinants of long-term debt maturity in Brazil. We built a unique database that includes privately placed debt and public debt for 308 publicly traded, non-financial Brazilian companies, from 2009 to 2013. We perform GMM panel analyses using as dependent variables the amount of long-term debt payable in more than one, three, and five years for total debt, BNDES (Brazilian Development Bank) debt and corporate bonds. The results show that the BNDES finances less risky firms, i.e., those that are larger, older, more tangible and more transparent. We also find support for information asymmetry theories, as companies with higher transparency levels have similar leverage levels relative to others but higher proportions of long-term debt in their capital structures. Regarding debt levels, we find that more levered companies are larger, less profitable, more tangible and have fewer growth opportunities. To our knowledge, this is the first paper to address the determinants of long-term debt maturity in Brazil that uses various specifications of long-term debt and that examines different types of debt. / Este trabalho investiga empiricamente os determinantes de prazo de dívida no Brasil. Nós construímos uma base de dados que inclui dívida privada e pública de 308 empresas brasileiras não-financeiras listadas em bolsa, de 2009 a 2013. Utilizamos uma análise GMM utilizando como variáveis explicativas os montantes de dívida de longo prazo a pagar em mais de um, três e cinco anos, para dívida total, dívida BNDES (Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social) e debêntures. Os resultados indicam que o BNDES financia firmas menos arriscadas, ou seja, maiores, mais antigas, mais tangíveis e mais transparentes. Também encontramos suporte para teorias de assimetria de informação, dado que firmas com maiores níveis de transparência apresentam níveis similares de alavancagem ao de firmas em outros segmentos, porém uma proporção maior de dívida de longo prazo em suas estruturas de capital. Quanto aos níveis de dívida, observamos que firmas mais alavancadas são maiores, menos lucrativas, mais tangíveis e possuem menos oportunidades de crescimento. Acreditamos que este é o primeiro trabalho a abordar determinantes de endividamento de longo prazo com diversas medidas de longo prazo e com diferentes tipos de dívida.

Submitted by Gustavo Gil Monteiro (gustavo_gilmonteiro@hotmail.com) on 2017-02-15T01:09:36Z No. of bitstreams: 1 February 13th 2017 - Impacto da atuação do BNDES nos investimentos reais de companhias abertas durante a crise de 2008_final.pdf: 886773 bytes, checksum: 3ab2193e48cdf92e89fddb15be10d0d1 (MD5) / Rejected by Pamela Beltran Tonsa (pamela.tonsa@fgv.br), reason: Bom dia Gustavo, Para que possamos aprovar seu trabalho são necessários alguns ajustes conforme norma ABNT/APA. O seu titulo deve estar em letra maiúscula. Capa - Contra Capa - Ficha catalográfica - Folha de aprovação - AGRADECIMENTOS (A PALAVRA "AGRADECIMENTO" DEVE SER MAIÚSCULO/NEGRITO E CENTRALIZADO ) - RESUMO (A PALAVRA "RESUMO" DEVE SER MAIÚSCULO/NEGRITO E CENTRALIZADO) - ABSTRACT ( A PALAVRA "ABSTRACT" DEVE SER MAIUSCULO/NEGRITO E CENTRALIZADO ) em língua estrangeira . Após os ajustes você deve submete-lo novamente para analise e aprovação. Qualquer duvida estamos a disposição, Att. Pâmela Tonsa on 2017-02-15T10:20:37Z (GMT) / Submitted by Gustavo Gil Monteiro (gustavo_gilmonteiro@hotmail.com) on 2017-02-15T15:36:20Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Impacto da atuação do BNDES nos investimentos reais de companhias abertas durante a crise de 2008_final.pdf: 887001 bytes, checksum: 2f6c27a717986576be152d9f84209045 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Pamela Beltran Tonsa (pamela.tonsa@fgv.br) on 2017-02-15T15:45:57Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Impacto da atuação do BNDES nos investimentos reais de companhias abertas durante a crise de 2008_final.pdf: 887001 bytes, checksum: 2f6c27a717986576be152d9f84209045 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-02-15T16:36:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Impacto da atuação do BNDES nos investimentos reais de companhias abertas durante a crise de 2008_final.pdf: 887001 bytes, checksum: 2f6c27a717986576be152d9f84209045 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-01-19 / Este trabalho utiliza o contexto de incertezas da crise de crédito de 2008 para avaliar como o crédito direto do governo ajuda a mitigar os efeitos da restrição financeira. Usando uma amostra de companhias brasileiras abertas em 2008, evidenciamos que a atuação do BNDES minimiza o efeito negativo da estrutura de maturidade de dívida nos investimentos. Para isso, foi utilizado o método tradicional das diferenças-em-diferenças, e os resultados indicam que firmas com grande quantidade de dívida a vencer com acesso ao BNDES no pós-crise não reduziram investimentos. Firmas que receberam o benefício antes da crise e no pós-crise aumentaram seus investimentos em 3,5 pontos percentuais, em comparação a firmas com semelhante quantidade de dívida a vencer no mesmo período, porém que não receberam crédito direto via BNDES. / This study uses the context of uncertainties in the realm of the 2008 Brazil financial crisis to address whether government-directed credit helps mitigate firms’ financial constraints. Using a sample of Brazilian publicly traded firms, we find that BNDES incentives activity minimizes the negative effect of the debt maturity structure on investments. We employ the traditional difference-in-difference approach and our results indicate that firms with large quantity of debt maturing shortly after the 2008 crisis peak and that have received BNDES subsidized funding on the post-crisis period have not reduced investments and firms that have benefited from BNDES subsidized funding not only on the post-crisis period but, in addition, before the occurrence of such financial crisis, were able to increase, in average, investments by 3.5 percentage points compared to firms with similar amount of debt maturing structure but with no access to BNDES incentives.

Cette thèse se compose de trois chapitres distincts. Dans le premier chapitre, nous examinons si les facteurs explicatifs de la maturité de la dette précédemment identifiés dans la littérature ont des impacts qui varient en fonction du niveau de maturité de la dette en mettant l'accent sur les cas extrêmes. Nous constatons que les effets des déterminants classiques varient sensiblement en fonction de la distribution de la maturité de la dette. Ces effets sont beaucoup plus faibles pour les percentiles les plus bas et les plus élevés. Cela indique que le risque de refinancement est beaucoup plus contraignant à très court terme et beaucoup moins à très long terme. En revanche, le fait d'avoir accès ou non au financement public accentue ce phénomène d'hétérogénéité de l'impact des déterminants en fonction du niveau de maturité de la dette. Ce dernier point peut s'expliquer par le fait que le risque de refinancement est beaucoup plus important pour les entreprises n'ayant pas accès au financement public. En résumé, nos résultats confirment notre intuition concernant les impacts hétérogènes des déterminants de la maturité de la dette en fonction du niveau de maturité de la dette et en particulier dans les cas extrêmes. Dans le deuxième chapitre, nous examinons les choix de la maturité de la dette des entreprises dans une perspective dynamique. Premièrement, nos résultats mettent en évidence des effets moutonniers. Aussi bien en termes de niveaux de la maturité de la dette qu'en termes de modifications de la maturité de la dette, les entreprises reproduisent le comportement des entreprises du même secteur. Ce comportement moutonnier explique beaucoup plus les variations de la maturité des dettes que les caractéristiques propres des entreprises. Après avoir éliminé l'impact des variations de la structure par terme des taux d'intérêt, ce comportement moutonnier en réponse aux modifications de la maturité de la dette des entreprises du même secteur est encore plus conséquent. Deuxièmement, nous constatons une persistance de niveaux de maturité de la dette dans le temps, notamment pour les entreprises ayant des maturités de la dette très faibles. Le troisième chapitre analyse l'impact du « market timing » sur la maturité de la dette. Nous affirmons que les grandes entreprises affichant des fondamentaux solides ont tendance à émettre des dettes à long terme plutôt qu'à court terme en cas de surévaluation temporaire des titres de ces entreprises. En particulier, pour ce type d'entreprises, l'effet du timing domine celui du comportement moutonnier pendant les périodes de refinancement important. Pour les petites entreprises dont les fondamentaux sont faibles, l'effet du « market timing » est faible, tandis que celui du comportement moutonnier est conséquent. / This dissertation is made of three distinct chapters. The first chapter investigates whether the effects of the previously identified factors vary along the debt maturity spectrum. Special emphasis is place on the extremely cases. Notably, we find that the effects of the conventional determinants vary substantially across the debt maturity distribution. Effect attenuation is observed at the lower and the higher debt maturity percentiles. The mechanism lies in the binding refinancing risk in the short extremes and the lessened refinancing risk in the long extremes. By contrast, the fact that a firm has access to public credit or not accentuates to a larger degree the heterogeneity in the observed effects of the included factors across the debt maturity distribution. This result can be explained by the argument that the refinancing risk is even more binding for firms without access to public credit. Altogether, our findings confirm our intuition concerning the heterogeneous effects of the conventional factors exerted along the debt maturity spectrum, especially for the extreme cases. In the second chapter, we examine debt maturity choices of firms from a dynamic perspective. Our results draw clear implications for a herding effect. Firms herd towards the levels as well as the changes of industry peers' debt maturities. Remarkably, this herding effect explains a much larger proportion of variation in debt maturity adjustment than firms' own characteristics. After eliminating the impact of changes in the yield curve, changes in peer firms' debt maturity policies drives debt maturity dynamics to a larger extent. Meanwhile, we find that debt maturity is persistent over time and that the persistence is primarily attributed to firms with short debt maturities. The third chapter analyzes the impact of market timing. We document that big firms with strong fundamentals attempt to “time” the issuance of long-term debts subsequent to temporary market mispricing. Particularly, for this type of firms, the effect of market timing dominates over that of herding during the periods firms raise large amounts of debts. For small firms with weak fundamentals, the effect of market timing is insignificant whereas the herding evidence is prominent.

Titel: Finns det ett samband mellan CSR och lånens löptid? - En kvantitativ studie på 300 publika bolag mellan 2008 - 2016 Nivå: Examensarbete på Grundnivå (kandidatexamen) i ämnet företagsekonomi Författare: Matilda Tapper och Linda Tufvesson Handledare: Jan Svanberg Datum: 2018 – Maj Syfte: Företagens sociala ansvarstagande blir en allt viktigare fråga, inte minst för intressenter och långivare vid bedömning av företagsrisken och kreditrisken. Många forskare har studerat hur CSR påverkar ett företags kapitalstruktur och vi vet därför att CSR påverkar företagens möjlighet att ta kortfristiga lån eftersom socialt ansvarstagande företag har en lägre finansiell risk. Syftet med den här studien är därför att undersöka om CSR påverkar ett företags val mellan lång- och kortfristigalån. Metod: Studien utgår från en positivistisk forskningsfilosofi och har en hypotetisk-deduktiv ansats. Studien har en kvantitativ strategi och tidsperspektivet består av en longitudinell design som genomförts med sekundärdata från Thomson Reuters databas Datastream med data för åren 2008 - 2016. Urvalet består av 300 publika europeiska bolag för vilka data har analyserats med multipla regressionsanalyser i statistikprogrammet IBM SPSS. Resultat & Slutsats: Resultatet indikerar på att det inte föreligger något samband mellan total CSR och lånens löptid, vilket troligtvis drivs av att miljödimensionen antar ett negativt samband som är lika starkt som företagsstyrningsdimensionens positiva samband. Studiens resultat visar inte heller på något samband mellan den sociala dimensionen och lånens löptid. Slutsatsen är därför att inget samband föreligger mellan total CSR och lånens löptid. CSR-aktiviteter inom miljödimensionen anses vara det som främst ligger i intressenternas intressen. Förslag till fortsatt forskning: Då det i studien visat sig att sambanden skiljer sig åt mellan de olika dimensionerna bör framtida forskning se till varje enskild dimension och se mer till de kategorier och indikationer som underbygger dessa dimensioner. Vi föreslår även att en liknande studie genomförs, med en löptid på tre år istället för ett år som definition på långfristiga skulder, för att ge underlag för jämförelser mellan Europa och USA. Uppsatsens bidrag: Studien bidrar till att fylla det forskningsgap som finns för europeiska bolag gällande sambandet mellan CSR och lånens löptid samt till att undersöka sambandet mellan varje enskild dimension och lånens löptid.Studien bidrar också till teorin gällande att användningen av eget kapital inte bara påverkas av sociala aktiviteter, utan även av total CSR. Det praktiska bidraget är i form av bevis på att företag kan påverka kostnaden för eget kapital genom CSR och därmed ett företags ekonomi som helhet. / Title: Is there a relationship between CSR and debt maturity? - A quantitative study of 300 public European companies between 2008 - 2016 Level: Student thesis, final assignment for Bachelor Degree in Business Administration Author: Matilda Tapper and Linda Tufvesson Supervisor: Jan Svanberg Date: 2018 – May Aim: Corporate social responsibility becomes an increasingly important issue, not least for stakeholders and lenders in assessing corporate risk and credit risk. Many researchers have studied how CSR affects the capital structure of a company and we know that CSR affects companies' ability use short-term debt because socially responsible companies have a lower financial risk. The aim of this study is therefore to investigate whether CSR affects a company's choice between long-term and short-term debt. Method: The study assumes a positivistic research philosophy and has a hypothetical- deductible approach. The study has a quantitative strategy and the time perspective consists of a longitudinal design, implemented with secondary data from Thomson Reuters database Datastream with data from the years 2008 - 2016.The sample consists of 300 public European companies for which data were analyzed by multiple regression analyzes in the IBM SPSS statistics program. Result & Conclusion: The results indicates that there is no correlation between total CSR and debt maturity, which is probably driven by the environmental dimension assuming a negative relationship that is as strong as the positive relationship with the corporate governance dimension. The result of the study also shows no correlation between the social dimension and debt maturity. The conclusion is therefore that there is no correlation between total CSR and debt maturity. CSR-activities within the environmental dimension are considered to be the main interests of stakeholders. Suggestions for future research: As the study showed that the relationships differ between the different dimensions, future research should address each individual dimension and look more at the categories and indications that support these dimensions. We also suggest that a similar study may be conducted, with a debt maturity of three years instead of one year as the definition of long-term debts, to provide basis for comparisons between Europe and the United States. Contribution of the thesis: The study contributes to filling the gap of research that exists for European companies regarding the relationship between CSR and debt maturity, as well as investigating the relationship between each individual dimension and debt maturity. The study also contributes to the theory that the use of equity is not only influenced by social activities but also by total CSR. Also, a practical contribution in the form of evidence that companies can influence the cost of equity through CSR and thus a company´s economy as a whole.

The financial crisis of 2007-2009 led to a large increase in the government debt of all advanced economies. In the United States, the debt burden reached levels not seen since the Second World War. In Europe, high fiscal stress evolved into a sovereign debt crisis. My thesis focuses on debt dynamics in advanced economies and the design of policies that can stabilize their fiscal burden. In the first chapter, I provide new evidence and theory on US debt dynamics and their relation with long-term growth forecasts. In the second chapter, I document a novel dataset on the maturity structure of sovereign debt of Euro Area (EA) countries and study the effect of the maturity composition on debt dynamics. Finally, in the third chapter, I analyze empirically the role of debt management in stabilizing the fiscal burden of countries in the EA.<p><p>Chapter 1: Sovereign Debt in the US and Growth Expectations<p><p>This chapter studies the effect of changes in expectations of long-term GDP growth on US government debt and deficits. Long-term growth expectations are an essential determinant of expected future revenue growth and fiscal solvency. I present evidence that US government debt and deficits are positively correlated with long-term GDP (and revenue) growth forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office between 1984 and 2012. This is robust to controlling for current growth and to using à-la-Kalman estimated forecasts for a longer time span. This stylized fact is novel in the macroeconomics literature and I develop a new model of government behavior that explains it.<p>My model features endogenous (forward-looking) purchasing behavior for the government. This distinguishes my model from standard macro theories that assume exogenous government purchases, or ad-hoc backward looking policy rules for government purchases. It builds on the recent ‘long-run risks’ literature by assuming shocks to the trend growth rate of total factor productivity. The model matches the observed positive correlation between fiscal deficits and the trend growth rate, based on the government’s desire to smooth public consumption over periods of higher (or lower) long-run productivity growth. <p><p>Chapter 2: Government Debt Maturity and Debt Dynamics in EA Countries<p><p>This chapter presents a new comprehensive database on sovereign debt stocks and yields, at all maturities, for six EA countries: Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy and Spain between 1991 and 2013. I constructed this database by combining information from different sources (treasuries, national central banks and statistical offices), on a security-by-security basis. A recent literature has shown the importance of debt maturity management in the US - e.g. Hall and Sargent (2011) - however, due to lack of data, this key issue remained unstudied for the EA. Thus, I use my database to study the effect of debt maturity management on the evolution of government debt in EA countries. <p>My main finding is that debt maturity also had an important effect in debt dynamics of the EA. The debt maturity structure affects debt dynamics because longer maturity shields the government budget from changes in interest rates. In general, interest rates in the EA have fallen since 1991 while treasuries in the region extended debt maturity. Thus, an increasing number of long-term bondholders experienced large capital gains. Counterfactual simulations show the impact of a different maturity structure on the evolution of debt and suggest that extending debt maturity in 2014 and 2015 would result in lower debt ratios by 2022. I also estimate the debt-to-GDP erosion induced by higher current and future inflation and find that inflation would lower the fiscal burden in EA countries much more than in the US.<p><p>Chapter 3: Quantifying the Role of Debt Management for Fiscal Self-Insurance in the EA<p><p>The last chapter provides evidence of debt management being an effective tool for protecting the government budget from fiscal spending shocks in the EA. In particular, I document that sovereign bonds of EA countries had a significantly lower real return in response to government spending shocks between 1991 and 2013. Importantly, longer bond maturity generally implied a larger drop in returns. This is in line with theories claiming that long-term debt provides fiscal self-insurance. However, my finding suggests that medium-term debt is more effective in hedging against spending shocks. <p>I identify government spending shocks in a Structural VAR model estimated with both aggregated quarterly fiscal data for the EA and stacked data from individual countries. I also use a simple FAVAR model to distinguish between common and idiosyncratic (country-specific) shocks and document that the former risk was hedged more effectively. The introduction of the Euro reduced the absorption of idiosyncratic shocks (relative to common shocks) by bond returns. However, the European debt crisis brought the degree of fiscal self-insurance against country-specific shocks back to pre-Euro levels. Finally, debt maturity seems to play a minor role in the absorption of country-specific shocks by the return on sovereign bonds. <p> / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Finding the optimal capital structure has been a relevant subject for many decades. Therehas for a long time been a discrepancy between observed leverage ratio and those proposedby theory, with many different theories suggested and developed throughout time. One ofthose theories is the Contingent Claims Analysis (CCA). Based initially on Black &amp; Scholes’option-pricing theory and formulas, and pioneered by Merton, the CCA-methodology hasthroughout the years been developed further and moved from pricing liabilities todetermining capital structures. The research and development on CCA-models have for thepast years mostly been on a theoretical level and less about its practical applicability. Thosefew applications that have been made were based on the U.S. market and companies.Ju and Ou-Yang developed one of the most recent CCA-methodologies in 2006,abbreviated as the JOY-model in this study. What distinguishes this model is its ability toshow the non-monotone relation of debt maturity and debt face amount through the morecomplex tradeoffs between tax benefits, bankruptcy costs and transactions cost. With a fewchanges made to it, and with almost all data from the Swedish market and companies, theJOY-model yields higher leverage ratios than what the 5 analyzed companies have today.The optimal leverage ratio, defined as debt value/firm value ranges from 10 – 40% and theoptimal debt maturity period is at 4 – 6 years. Out of all the model parameters, the long-runmean of the stochastic risk-free interest rate has the biggest impact on the final results. TheJOY-model and CCA in general are complex and resource intense models that need certainimprovements. Nonetheless, its overall potential is still promising.

Submitted by Melanie Siqueira (melmcs@gmail.com) on 2013-10-10T03:24:10Z No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertação MMCS.pdf: 590881 bytes, checksum: f418818e0850470b8e16d0ba721a7967 (MD5) / Rejected by Vitor Souza (vitor.souza@fgv.br), reason: A 1ª pagina do PDF não está dentro dos padrões da ABNT. Enviarei um e-mail com o modelo a seguido. on 2013-10-10T13:00:02Z (GMT) / Submitted by Melanie Siqueira (melmcs@gmail.com) on 2013-10-10T16:35:56Z No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertação MMCS.pdf: 676064 bytes, checksum: e2b2739e4cb825d01a0937fbe031842c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vitor Souza (vitor.souza@fgv.br) on 2013-12-13T14:16:55Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertação MMCS.pdf: 676064 bytes, checksum: e2b2739e4cb825d01a0937fbe031842c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-12-16T15:58:49Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertação MMCS.pdf: 676064 bytes, checksum: e2b2739e4cb825d01a0937fbe031842c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-10-04 / Este trabalho investiga como os controles de capitais praticados no Brasil através da imposição do Imposto sobre Operações Financeiras (IOF) sobre empréstimos externos em 2011 e 2012 afetaram decisões em âmbito financeiro empresarial. As principais questões abordadas são: As empresas brasileiras com financiamento de curto prazo em moeda estrangeira investiram menos após a imposição do IOF sobre empréstimo externo? Elas alongaram suas dívidas em moeda estrangeira, ou seja, mudaram a composição, mas não o total de dívida? Elas reduziram a dívida externa total, aumentando a dívida doméstica? Para responder a essas perguntas, foi adotado o método de diferenças-em-diferenças. Os resultados encontrados sustentam que as empresas brasileiras que tinham passivos externos de curto prazo antes da adoção do IOF não diminuíram seus investimentos significativamente mais do que as empresas que não foram diretamente afetadas por tal medida de controle, nem alteraram mais a proporção de endividamento externo sobre dívida total. Não obstante, os resultados apontam para um maior alongamento das dívidas em moeda estrangeira. / This work investigates how capital controls practiced in Brazil through the imposition of Tax on Financial Transactions (IOF) on foreign loans in 2011 and 2012 affected financial decisions in business. The main issues addressed are: Did Brazilian companies with short-term financing in foreign currency invest less after the imposition of the IOF on foreign loan? Did they lengthen their debt in foreign currency, ie, did the composition change, but not the total debt? Did they reduce total external debt, increasing domestic debt? To answer these questions, we adopted the method of difference-in-differences. The results support that Brazilian companies that had short-term external liabilities before the adoption of the IOF did not decrease their investment significantly more than firms that were not directly affected by such a measure of control, nor did they change the proportion of external debt on total debt. Nevertheless, the results point to a stretch of debt maturity on foreign currency.

La gestion du risque est un sujet primordial au niveau d’une entreprise et au niveau de l’Etat. Cette thèse investigue ce thème au travers de trois essais empiriques. Le premier essai s’intéresse à la gestion du risque de change par les entreprises. Les résultats montrent que les Fusions & Acquisitions transfrontalières offrent une couverture opérationnelle contre le risque de change. De plus, cette technique de couverture crée de la valeur pour les actionnaires. La baisse de l’exposition au risque de change (en valeur absolue) est positivement associée avec les rentabilités anormales cumulées (CAR) pour les acquéreurs. Le deuxième et le troisième essai se concentrent sur la gestion du risque au niveau de l’État - le plan de sauvetage (dit « plan Paulson ») pendant la crise financière récente aux États-Unis. Le deuxième essai confirme dans un premier temps l’effet positif du plan sur les CAR et la réduction des probabilités de défaut pour les banques participantes autour de son annonce initiale. Pourtant, l’effet du plan n’est pas neutre au sein des banques : les grands joueurs ont été les gagnants. Le dernier essai analyse les effets de bord du plan Paulson sur les pratiques d’octroi de prêts. Nos résultats révèlent qu’il y a un effet de bord positif et significatif de l’intervention gouvernementale sur la maturité des prêts syndiqués pendant la période postérieure à la crise, de 2010 à 2012. Néanmoins, cet impact positif n’apparaît pas pour la taille des prêts syndiqués. En somme, cette thèse empirique met en lumière d’une part les moyens efficaces d’une gestion du risque de change pour les entreprises, comme par exemple la couverture opérationnelle, et ses implications positives pour les actionnaires des acquéreurs, et d’autre part les résultats attendus d’une intervention de l’Etat, comme celle du plan Paulson, les effets de bord et les effets hétérogènes entre les établissements financiers. / The risk management is a crucially important topic at firm and country level. This thesis investigates this subject across three empirical essays. The first essay is interested in firm’s currency risk management. The results show that the cross-border Mergers & Acquisitions offer an operational hedging to the currency risk. Moreover, this hedging creates value for acquirers’ shareholders. The decrease in currency risk exposure (in absolute value) is positively associated with acquirers’ cumulative abnormal returns (CAR). The second and the third essay concentrate on the risk management at country level - the bailout plan (the Paulson plan) during the recent financial crisis in United States. The second essay in a first step confirms the positive effect of the plan on bank participants’ CAR and on the decrease of default probability around the plan’s initial announcement. Nevertheless, the effect of the plan is not neutral among banks and big players were the winners. The last essay analyzes the Paulson plan’s spillover effect on the loan supply. Our results reveal that there is a positive and significant spillover effect of the government intervention on syndicated loans’ maturities during the post-crisis period from 2010 to 2012. However, this positive impact is not found for the size of syndicated loans. In sum, this empirical thesis from one side sheds light on the efficient ways of firm’s currency risk management, such as the operational hedging, and its positive effect for acquirers’ shareholders; from another side for the country-level government intervention, it highlights the Paulson plan’s spillover effect on syndicated loans and the heterogeneous impact among financial institutions.