Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2001. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Academics, analysts and investors have always been intrigued by, and have always sought to identify with certainty, factors that determine investment returns and share price movements. In 1953 Maurice Kendall, following on the work of Louis Bachelier, made the revelation that share price movements followed a random pattern, i.e. they could not be predicted with certainty. Through continual research, two schools of thought emerged - fundamental and technical analysis. The fundamentalists' perspective is that through thorough due diligence analysis of current and historical data, one will be able to identify good investment prospects.The latter stipulates that future price movements can be predicted from previous price movements, i.e. historical patterns replicate themselves over time. The random walk theory suggested by Kendall was followed by the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) as developed and refined by Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965) and Black (1972). The CAPMrecognised risk (beta) as the key explanatory variable of returns. The CAPMremains the backbone of modern financial theory and is the basis against which all new developmentsare measured. Subsequent studies have attempted to find other explanatory variables of return other than beta. Banz (1981) found evidence of a relationship between size and returns later referred to as the size effect. Chen (1981 and 1983) found that after adjusting for risk factors, the size effect did not yield high returns adequately, thus challenging Banz's findings. In 1985, Chan, Chen and Hsieh using macro and micro economic variables found that given more accurate estimates of beta, no sized-based differences in returns could be observed. Reinganumin 1981 found evidence of high earnings-price (EjP) shares yielding abnormally high returns. He further found a strong relationship between size and earnings-to-price (EjP) ratio. Bhandari (1988) suggested that in addition to beta and size, leverage also played an important explanatory role of returns. Related studies by Basu (1977), Chan, Hamao and Lakonishok (1991) and Jegadeesh (1992) found a multi-variable explanation of returns - market equity, beta, EjP ratio, size and other non-market factors. The combination of these factors led to the conclusion that the CAPM model had been misspecified. Fama and French (1992 and 1995) expanded the research and sought to establish the multi-dimensionality of beta. They found, inter alia, that equities with a high book value vis-a-vis their price realised higher returns than their counterparts. They further found profitability to be positively related to size. This led to a new ratio in financial analysis, the price book ratio (PB). The PB ratio has never emerged as a prominent analytical tool in the financial sector and has historically been superseded by the price earnings (PE) ratio. The author therefore seeks to establish the raison d' etre for the status quo by undertaking an empirical study of the JSE Securities Exchange for the period commencing 1989 and ending 1998. Using financial data obtainable from annual financial statements, the author proceeded to calculate PE and PB ratios. Tracing the mathematical derivation of the two ratios and using the Pearson correlation coefficient, trend analysis and the Spearman Rank correlation test, the author found that there exists prima facie evidence to suggest that the PE ratio could be used as a proxy for the PB ratio. This offers a partial explanation of the inconspicuous role of the PB ratio as an explanatory tool. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Akademici, analiste en beleggers stel steeds belang in en strewe om faktore wat beleggingsopbrengste en aandeleprysbewegings bepaal, met sekerheid te identifiseer. In 1953 het Maurice Kendal, gebaseer op die werk van Louis Bachelier, getoon dat aandelepryse 'n ewekansige patroon volg en as gevolg hiervan nie met sekerheid voorspel kan word nie. Navorsing het twee denkrigtings tot gevolg gehad naamlik fundamentele ontleding en tegniese analise. Fundamentele ontleding veronderstel dat winsgewende beleggingsgeleenthede vanuit 'n deeglik oorweegde impak analise van huidige en historiese data gemaak kan word. Tegniese analise stel voor dat toekomstige prysbewegings uit vorige prysbewegings afgelei en voorspel kan word, óf anders gestel, dat patrone hulself oor 'n sekere periode herhaal. Die stogastiese lopie teorie van Kendall is gevolg deur die markpryswaarderingsmodel (MPM) wat deur Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965) en Black (1972) ontwikkel en verfyn is. Die MPM stel risiko (beta) as 'n sentrale veranderlike wat opbrengste voorspel. Die MPM vorm steeds die primêre uitgangspunt van finansiële teorie en die basis waaraan nuwe ontwikkelings gemeet word. Voortspruitend uit die voorafgaande studies, is daar gepoog om verdere veranderlikes anders as beta te ondersoek wat opbrengste voorspel. Banz (1981) toon aan dat daar 'n verhouding bestaan tussen grootte en opbrengste - naamlik die grootte-effek. Chen (1981 en 1983) het die gevolgtrekking gemaak dat die grootte-effek nie genoegsame hoë opbrengste lewer nadat risikofaktore in berekening gebring is nie. Gevolglik is Banz se bevindinge bevraagteken. In 1985 het Chan, Chen en Hsieh deur die gebruik van makro en mikro-ekonomiese veranderlikes bevind dat, gegewe 'n meer akkurate bepaling van beta, geen grootte gebaseerde opbrengste waargeneem kon word nie. Reinganum (1981) bevind dat bewyse bestaan dat aandele met hoë verdienste-prys abnormaal hoë opbrengste getoon het. Sterk verhoudings tussen grootte en die aandeel se prysverdienste verhouding is waargeneem. Bhandari (1988), in verdere navorsing in hierdie verband, stel dat in aanvulling tot die gebruik van die beta-koëffisient en grootte, hefboomwerking ook 'n belangrike bydrae lewer in die bepaling van opbrengste. Verbandhoudende studies deur Basu (1977), Chan, Hamao en Lakonishok (1991) en Jegadeesh (1992) stel dat opbrengste verduidelik kan word aan die hand van verskeie veranderlikes, naamlik markekwiteit, beta, prysverdienste verhouding, grootte en ander nie-markverwante faktore. Die kombinering van hierdie faktore het gelei tot die gevolgtrekking dat die MPM model verkeerd gespesifiseerd was. Fama en French (1992 en 1995) se navorsing poog om die multi-dimensionaliteit van beta te bepaal. Hulle bevind onder andere dat aandele wat 'n hoë boekwaarde teenoor prys, 'n hoër verdienste of opbrengs oplewer as ander aandele. Verder is bevind dat 'n positiewe korrelasie tussen winsgewendheid en grootte bestaan. Dit het gelei tot 'n nuwe verhouding in finansiële analise, naamlik die prys-tot-boek verhouding (PB). Die PB-verhouding het egter nooit in die finansiële sektor gerealiseer as 'n prominente analitiese metode nie en word histories deur die prysverdienste verhouding oorskadu. Die skrywer wil gevolglik die raison d' etre vasstel vir die status quo deur 'n empiriese studie van die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs vir die periode 1989 tot 1998 te onderneem. Deur jaarlikse finansiële state te ontleed, is die prysverdienste en prys-tot-boek verhoudings bereken. Deur 'n wiskundige afleiding van die twee verhoudings te maak, die Pearson korrelasiekoëffisient, tendensanalise en die Spearman rang korrelasiekoëffisienttoets te gebruik, het die skrywer bevind dat daar prima facie getuienis bestaan dat die prysverdienste verhouding ook gebruik kan word as 'n ekwivalent vir die prys-tot-boek verhouding. Dit bied 'n gedeeltelike verklaring van die ontoereikende rol van die prys-tot- boek verhouding as 'n verklarende veranderlike.

Hambrick and Mason (1984)年提出的「高層理論」認為高階管理團隊的人口統計特徵，例如性別、年齡、學歷、工作背景等，能夠反映認知及價值觀等心理特徵，以及團隊內部的溝通和衝突等運作過程；團隊成員不同的人口統計特徵以及這些特徵的作用過程會影響到組織的戰略選擇與績效。隨後越來越多學者著重在研究董事會或高階管理階層的背景、人格特質及心理特質對公司營運績效或盈餘管理的影響。故本研究想要將第三者對經理人之刻板印象，也就是出生日期（星座）作為變數去探討其是否會對公司應計項目盈餘管理及實質盈餘管理有顯著之關係。實證結果發現，經理人出生日期在3月21日至4月19日（牡羊座）、6月22日至7月22日（巨蟹座）、9月23日至10月23日（天秤座）及10月24日11月22日（天蠍座）與公司盈餘管理有顯著之相關性。且經理人之中，牡羊、金牛及射手為前三名所佔比例最高之星座。 / Since the “Upper Echelon Theory” proposed by Hambrick and Mason (1984),more scholars and researchers focus on studying the relationship between backgrounds, characteristics, psychological traits from board members, CEO, top management teams and the performance like earnings management of a company. This study investigates whether the birth date (horoscope) of the managers affects the accruals-based earnings management and real earnings management in a company. Our results indicate that managers born in the interval of 3/21 to 4/19 (Aries), 6/22 to 7/22 (Cancer), 9/23-10/23 (Libra) and 10/24-11/22 (Scorpio) are more likely to conduct manipulation of earnings management.

When a couple moves, the woman is often placed at a disadvantage. Moves are more often motivated by men’s career advancement opportunities, and men tend to gain more economically from moving. In this thesis, these patterns are examined with an eye on the role of sex segregation on the labor market. Results from the four studies indicate that there exist gender differences in couples’ migration patterns in Sweden. These differences cannot be completely explained by occupational sex segregation or by traditional gender ideologies. I. Compared to men, women are more willing to move for the sake of their partner’s employment opportunities. Further, fathers move for the sake of their own career more often than mothers. Gender differences in these patterns are greater among individuals with gender traditional attitudes, but also exist in more egalitarian relationships. II. In a couple, the man’s educational attainment affects couples’ mobility more than the woman’s. This is because highly educated men’s occupations have more career advancement opportunities and larger differences in wages between regions, whereas women’s occupations have higher geographic ubiquity. Both partners’ occupational characteristics have an equal impact on the couple’s mobility. III. When a couple moves, the man benefits more financially than the woman. This differential cannot be wholly explained by occupational differences. Some of the lag in women’s earnings development can be accounted for by childbearing following a move. Occupations’ with greater geographic ubiquity correlate with more positive financial outcomes for both men and women following a move. IV. At the start of co-residence, it is more common that the woman moves to the man than vice versa, and women generally move longer distances than men. Age differentails between partners explain part of these migration differences. Furthermore, men’s migration propensities and distance moved are more affected by labor market ties than women’s. / <p>At the time of the doctoral defense, the following paper was unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 1: Accepted.</p>

När ett bolag redovisar ett resultat som inte är i linje med marknadens förväntningar tenderar bolaget att uppvisa en avvikelseavkastning en period efter att resultatet har publicerats. Denna studie undersöker om bolag som redovisar ett oförväntat resultat jämfört med analytikers förväntningar uppvisar en avvikelseavkastning under en period på 30 respektive 60 handelsdagar efter publiceringen av bolagets kvartalsrapport. Studien undersöker tidsperioden 2004-2010. Dessutom undersöker studien om avvikelseavkastningen perioden efter att resultatet publicerats tenderar att avvika under den finansiella marknadens nedgångsfas 2007- 2008 i jämförelse med 2004-2006 och 2009-2010. För att genomföra undersökningen används en eventstudie. Studiens resultat visar att under perioden 2004-2010 uppvisar endast den decil av bolag som redovisat störst negativt oförväntat resultat en statistiskt säkerställd underavkastning på -1,9 % 30 handelsdagar efter att kvartalsrapporten publicerats. Vidare visar resultatet, vid jämförelse mellan 2007-2008 och perioderna 2004-2006 samt 2009-2010, att differensen i den genomsnittliga kumulativa avvikelseavkastningen under handelsdag 2 till 60 efter att bolagets kvartalsrapport har publicerats skiljer sig för de bolag som uppvisar ett positivt oförväntat resultat.

Assignment (MAcc )--University of Stellenbosch, 2002. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The price-earnings ratio is one of a series of benchmarks developed after the Great Depression, to measure the fair value of shares on a relative basis. It originated from the idea that investors buy the earnings of a company and that the price-earnings ratio provides a consensus indication of the future growth potential of a company. Therefore, the price-earnings ratio is a rating of a company's future profitability. The price-earnings ratio developed, over the years, firstly, into an indicator of the relative risk associated with a company as the market anomalies associated with the ratio were investigated and clarified, and the theoretical background of the ratio integrated with the portfolio theory. It is now clear that the price-earnings ratio can be a useful indicator of the risk associated with an investment and the uncertainty associated with the duration of the growth phase of a company. Secondly, the price-earnings ratio is also a growth and valuation model with a theoretical background that can be linked to popular dividend discount models and the growth opportunities approach to investment valuation. With the use of the price-earnings ratio it is easy to visualise the relative profitability and the total investment required to raise a company's rating of future profitability. This simplicity allows one the opportunity to evaluate the reasonableness and likelihood of the investment reaching its projected potential profit targets. Lastly, as a result of accounting changes and the different accounting rules in force today, the price-earnings ratio also assists in the identification and elimination of the effects of accounting on investment decisions. It is apparent that the price-earnings ratio possesses the capabilities to assist investors significantly with the analysis of investment opportunities. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die prys-verdienste verhouding is een van 'n reeks relatiewe maatstawwe ontwikkel na die Groot Depressie om die redelike waarde van aandele te bepaal. Dit is gebaseer op die idee dat beleggers die winste van 'n maatskappy koop en dat die prys-verdienste verhouding 'n konsensus aanduiding verskaf van die toekomstige groeipotensiaal van 'n maatskappy. As gevolg hiervan is die prys-verdienste verhouding 'n aanduiding van die relatiewe toekomstige winsgewendheid van 'n maatskappy. Die prys-verdienste verhouding het oor die jare ontwikkel, eerstens as 'n aanwyser van die relatiewe risiko verbonde aan 'n maatskappy soos abnormaliteite wat daaraan verwant is ondersoek en verklaar is, en die teorieë onderliggend aan die verhouding ontwikkel het saam met die portefeulje teorie. Dit is nou duidelik dat die prys-verdienste verhouding 'n bruikbare aanduider is van die risiko wat geassosieer word met 'n belegging en die onsekerheid wat gepaard gaan met die duur van die groeifase van 'n maatskappy. Tweedens is die prys-verdienste verhouding ook 'n waardasie- en groeimodel met 'n teoretiese agtergrond wat verband hou met die populêre dividend verdiskonteringsmodelle en die groeigeleenthede-benadering tot waardasie. Met die gebruik van die prys-verdienste verhouding is dit maklik om die relatiewe winsgewendheid en die totale belegging wat benodig word om die waarde van die relatiewe winsgewendheid van 'n maatskappy te verhoog, tevisualiseer. Hierdie eenvoud verskaf die geleentheid om die redelikheid en die waarskynlikheid van 'n belegging om sy voorsiene winsgewendheidsdoelwitte te bereik, te evalueer. Laastens, as 'n resultaat van die rekeningkundige veranderinge, en die verskillende rekeningundige reëls huidiglik van toepassing in die wêreld, help die prys-verdienste verhouding ook met die identifikasie en die eliminasie van rekeningkundige komplikasies op beleggingsbesluite. Dit is duidelik dat die prys-verdienste verhouding die vermoë het om die belegger by te staan met die ontleding van beleggingsgeleenthede.

Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--University of Stellenbosch, 2007. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Verskeie navorsingsprojekte is oor die jare gedoen ten opsigte van die voorspellingsmoontlikhede van kontantvloei en winste, met teenstrydige resultate. Daar is egter weinig navorsing gedoen oor die verhouding wat tussen winste en kontantvloei bestaan. Hierdie navorsingsverslag beoog om ondersoek in te stel na die verhouding tussen kontantvloei en winste, dus om te poog om te bepaal watter een die drywer is, maar ook om te bepaal of die een veranderlike ingespan kan word om vooruitskattings ten opsigte van die ander te kan doen. Aangesien finansiële tydreekse die meeste van die tyd nie-stasionêr is, moet dit in ag geneem word wanneer die kousale verwantskap tussen die twee veranderlikes bepaal word, asook wanneer regressie-analise met die oog op vooruitskatting gedoen word. Daar word egter vermoed dat die aspek van stasionariteit weinig aandag geniet in menige navorsing wat ten opsigte van finansiële tydreekse gedoen word. Die feit dat weinig tydreekse stasionêr is, is bevestig deur te toets vir die bestaan van eenheidswortels in die veranderlikes. Die beste resultate vir stasionariteit is verkry deur die tweede verskille van die veranderlikes te bereken. Daar kon egter nie met sekerheid vasgestel word of winste kontantvloei dryf of andersom nie. Die gevaar van skyn-korrelasie is ook bewys, aangesien 'n groot aantal pare veranderlikes beduidende korrelasies tussen mekaar aandui, maar wanneer hulle stasionariteit en kousaliteit in ag geneem word, is weinig van die pare veranderlikes kousaal verwant aan mekaar. Die toets vir ko-integrasie is ingespan om steun te verleen by die regressie-analise en vooruitskatting van die tydreekse. Die regressie analise van die geko-integreerde tydreekse het in die meeste gevalle 'n hoë R2 en aangepaste R2 gelewer. Die vooruitskattings was egter teleurstellend onakkuraat. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Throughout the years a variety of research projects have been done about the predictive ability of cash flow and earnings, with contradictory results. However, limited research has been done about the relationship between cash flow and earnings. The aim of this research report is to investigate the relationship between cash flow and earnings, thus attempting to determine which one is the driver, but also to investigate the ability of one variable to predict the other. Because financial time series are non-stationary most of the time, this fact has to be taken into account when the causal relationship between the two variables is determined, as well as when regression analysis is done with forecasting in view. It is, however, suspected that the fact of stationarity has been neglected in much of the research that has been done on financial time series. The fact that very few time series are stationary has been established by testing for the existence of unit roots in the variables. The best results for stationarity were obtained by calculating the second differences of the variables. It could not be established beyond doubt whether earnings cause cash flows or vice versa. The danger of spurious correlation has been proved, because a vast number of pairs of variables indicates a significant correlation with one another, but when stationarity and causality are taken into account, only a few pairs of variables are truly significantly correlated to one another. The test for co-integration was used to assist in the regression analysis and forecasting of non-stationary time series. The regression analysis of most of the co-integrated variables resulted in a high R2 and adjusted R2. The forecasted values, however, were disappointingly inaccurate. / cmc2010

This paper examines the relationship between executive compensation – in the form ofvariable pay – and earnings management. Since most research is done on Americancompanies, and Swedish companies are adopting a more Anglo-American compensationstructure, we would like to study this in Sweden. We hypothesize that CEOs with highervariable pay are more likely to engage in earnings management. This study is done onSwedish companies listed on Large- and Mid-Cap. Using data from the companies’ annualreports we find no significant relationship between variable pay and discretionary accrualsusing our regression. / Denna studie undersöker relationen mellan kompensation till ledande befattningshavare –den del av lönen som är rörlig - och manipulering av intäkter. Då större delen av tidigareforskning har fokuserat på amerikanska företag, och svenska företag anammar en mer angloamerikanskstruktur av kompensation, vill vi undersöka detta i Sverige. Vi kommer fram tillen hypotes där vi antar att en VD med högre rörlig lön är mer trolig att manipulera intäkter.Studien är gjord på svenska företag listade på Large och Mid Cap. Genom att använda datafrån företagens årsredovisningar och Datastream hittar vi genom våra regressioner ingasamband mellan rörlig lön och diskretionära periodiseringar.

為提升資訊透明度，國內於2003年開始實施資訊揭露評鑑系統，由過去實證結果發現，系統實施後有助於降低企業盈餘管理行為。第三屆起，評鑑結果分五級揭示並新增自願性揭露較透明名單，期以再強化資訊透明度。因此，本研究乃針對第三屆系統改變及其結果，進一步探討對於企業盈餘管理行為的影響。 　　本研究實證結果發現，第三屆資訊揭露評鑑系統改採分五級揭示評鑑結果，比前兩屆僅揭示較透明者更能降低企業盈餘管理行為。另外，在系統實施後，公司規模較大者，其盈餘管理行為降幅較小公司為多。而在評鑑結果對於盈餘管理行為之鑑別上，以級別來說，前兩級(A+、A級)明顯小於後兩級(B、C級)，但後兩級之間則無差異；以自願性揭露較透明與否來說，較透明者其盈餘管理小於較不透明者。 / In order to improve the transparency of information, Taiwan Securities and Futures Institute (SFI) begins to implement Information Disclosure and Transparency Ranking System (IDTRS) in Taiwan in 2003, since that the past study shows applying IDTRS can reduce earnings management behaviors of the enterprise. In the third time of practice, the result of IDTRS was divided into five grades and released a more transparent list on companies in order to strengthen the transparency of information better. Therefore, this study focuses on the result of IDTRS released in 2006 and discusses the effect of the result to earnings management behaviors. The empirical result of this study shows that the change does reduce earnings management. Besides, this study also shows that, after the change, the earnings management behavior of the large company decreases more than that of the small company. Finally, to determine whether the result of IDTRS can differentiate earnings management behavior of each company, the study shows, from the perspective of the grade, the first two grades (A+, A) are obviously smaller than last two grades (B, C), and it has no difference between the last two grades; from the perspective of voluntary disclosure of transparency, the earnings management of the more transparent company is lower than the that of the less transparent company.

自從Sloan (1996)以後，後續研究關於應計有較低盈餘持續性現象之解釋可分為成長因素和會計扭曲。本研究運用Fairfield et al. (2003)與Richardson et al. (2006)之模型擬針對此兩種解釋提出直接的證據，以探討該現象可否完全由成長因素解釋，且在不同成長機會本質下其解釋能力是否仍相同。實證結果發現在Fairfield et al. (2003)之模型下，若控制當期獲利水準，淨營業資產成長和次期資產報酬率會呈負相關，若進一步將淨營業資產區分為應計和長期淨營業資產成長後，發現兩者皆與次期資產報酬率呈相同的負相關，表示成長因素確實是造成應計有較低盈餘持續性的原因。而在Richardson et al. (2006)之模型下，實證結果發現若控制當期獲利水準，並將總營業應計拆解為代表經濟成長特性的「成長要素」和代表暫時性會計扭曲的「要率要素」後，發現兩者皆和次期淨營業資產報酬率呈負相關，且效率要素之負相關程度顯著的大於成長要素。表示成長因素雖可部分解釋應計之較低盈餘持續性現象，但顯然暫時性會計扭曲才是主要原因。另外，本研究為驗證成長機會對盈餘持續性之影響，再進一步將樣本依成長機會之高低分為三群，測試後發現無論在何種成長機會本質下，效率要素的負相關程度還是大於成長要素。表示即使考量不同成長機會因素後，成長因素解釋應計有較低盈餘持續性的能力還是不足暫時性會計扭曲。

Venture capital funds are active investors in technology-based firms in Taiwan. However, there is very little evidence on the influence of VC funds’ investments in the investee firms. This study examines the relations between venture-backing and two issues, earnings management and value relevance, in the technology-based industry. For the issue of the relationship between venture-backing and earnings management, four hypotheses are derived to test the above connections. Three different proxies of earnings management are employed to conduct this analysis: cross-sectional modified Jones model, performance-matched modified Jones model and unexpected accounts receivable model. Empirical evidence shows that there is a negative association between venture-backing and abnormal accruals. Specifically, age of VC funds, percentage of VC funds’ shareholdings on investee firms, and VC funds invested by the government are negatively related with abnormal accruals in most of analyses. These findings indicate that VC funds in Taiwan provide monitoring functions on financial reporting of their invstee firms. For the issue of value relevance of venture-backing information, five hypotheses are derived to test the above connections. Ohlson (1995) model is used for the examination. Empirical evidence shows that venture-backing information is value relevant in the TSE market, but not in the OTC market. The sufficiency of financial information has an impact on value relevance of venture capital information. Value relevance of venture-backing information in the TSE market increases with VC funds’ investments and VC funds’ government investments, but not with VC funds’ age in most of analyses. These findings indicate that investors treat venture-backing information as value-relevant information only in the TSE market, but not in the OTC market. In addition, several tests are performed to determine the sensitivity of the results to a potential selection bias in the research design. The results of this analysis are mixed. Therefore, this paper cannot rule out selection bias as a potential alternative explanation for the findings.