Le vote pour le mouvement réformateur est-il un vote pour la démocratie ? Dans ce mémoire, nous avons mis à l’épreuve l’hypothèse selon laquelle le caractère plus démocratique des partis associés au mouvement réformateur tend automatiquement à attirer les électeurs plus démocrates. Pour ce faire, nous avons utilisé des données de sondage qui nous ont aidés à dégager les attitudes et les caractéristiques des électeurs et à les mettre en relation avec leur vote. Ainsi, nous avons dressé le portrait de l’électorat iranien et nous en avons mis en évidence les caractéristiques sociodémographiques déterminant le vote. Nos résultats montrent que, conformément à nos hypothèses et à l’interprétation générale qui est faite des élections iraniennes, l’âge et le niveau d’éducation présentent une corrélation avec le choix électoral dans le sens attendu, qui prévoit qu’un électorat plus jeune et plus éduqué vote pour le mouvement réformateur. En revanche, en ce qui concerne le sexe et le degré d’urbanisation, nos résultats vont à l’encontre de nos hypothèses et des suppositions liées au comportement électoral en Iran. Nous démontrons que les femmes sont en réalité plus nombreuses à voter pour le mouvement conservateur et que les choix électoraux des habitants des villes et de ceux des villages ne diffèrent pas. Nous avons également vérifié la relation entre les attitudes et le vote. Nos résultats révèlent que les électeurs ayant une attitude plus positive envers la démocratie, reconnaissant plus de droits aux femmes, moins religieux et économiquement plus libéraux, sont plus nombreux à voter pour le mouvement réformateur. Nous reconnaissons, en conclusion, l’impact des attitudes envers la démocratie sur le choix électoral en Iran ainsi que l’effet d’autres attitudes liées à l’égalité, à la religion et à l’économie. Nous affirmons surtout que ces attitudes départagent aussi bien, sinon mieux, la population iranienne par rapport à ses choix électoraux que les caractéristiques telles que le sexe ou le degré d’urbanisation. / Is voting for the reform movement in Iran tantamount to voting for democracy? It is conceived that the more democratic characteristics of the reformist political parties in Iran; automatically provide them with the support of the more democratically oriented voters. In this thesis, we put this theory to the test. To do so, we use survey data (World Values Survey 2001) to identify voters’ attitudes and attributes in relation to their vote choice. We first depict the Iranian electorate by exploring the sociodemographic determinants of their vote. Only some of our hypothesis based on the general understandings and mainstream analysis of elections in Iran are validated. Age and education seem to have an impact in vote choice. Younger and more educated voters tend to vote in bigger numbers for the reformist movement. Contrary to our assumptions though, women tend to vote more for the conservative movement and urbanism has no effect on the vote. Then, in order to answer the initial question of this research we study the correlation between the respondents’ attitudes and their votes. We demonstrate that a positive attitude toward democracy, according equal rights to women, a lower level of religiosity, and economic liberalism are all positively correlated with a vote in favour of the reformist movement. We therefore illustrate the importance of the attitudes, particularly those toward democracy, in the electoral behaviour of Iranian voters. We also point out the impact of other attitudinal factors concerning equality, religion and economy. Our results tend to indicate that these factors are at least just as useful that factors such as sex or urbanism, into portraying the stratification of the Iranian society with regards to its vote choice.

Šios disertacijos tikslas yra ištirti ir paaiškinti rinkėjų elgsenos kaitumo skirtumus rinkimuose į savivaldybių tarybas tarp Lietuvos savivaldybių. Tiriami visi nuo Lietuvos nepriklausomybės atkūrimo vykę demokratiniai savivaldos rinkimai (iš viso šeši rinkimai nuo 1995 m. iki 2011 m.). Disertacijoje remiamasi visais svarbiausiais teoriniais rinkėjų elgsenos kaitumo aiškinimais: sociostruktūra, ekonominis balsavimas, partinė sistema ir instituciniai-kontekstiniai veiksniai. Kai kurios teorijos yra modifikuojamos tam, kad jas būtų galima naudoti Lietuvos savivaldos rinkimų kontekste. Disertacijoje siūloma partinių sistemų klasifikacija pagal partijų koalicinio elgesio šablonus ilgajame laikotarpyje, įgalinanti atskirti partines sistemas Lietuvos savivaldybių tarybose. Empirinis tyrimas remiasi kiekybiniais (statistiniais metodais): aprašomoji statistika, ryšio matai, neparametriniai populiacijų skirtingumo matai ir tiesinė regresinė analizė. Empirinėje analizėje naudojami trys priklausomi kintamieji, kurie atitinka tris rinkėjų elgsenos kaitumo aspektus: bendras rinkėjų elgsenos kaitumas, išorinis nestabilumas ir savivaldybėje dominuojančios (mero) partijos balsų pokytis. Disertacijoje atrandama kad šie trys rinkėjų elgsenos kaitumo aspektai yra veikiami įvairių veiksnių: kultūrinio heterogeniškumo (didina rinkėjų elgsenos kaitumą), partijų pasiūlos, atitikimo tarp vietos ir nacionalinės partinių sistemų, rinkiminio aktyvumo (įtaka susilpnėja nuo 2002 m.), partinės narystės... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / The aim of this dissertation is to analyze and explain the variance of electoral volatility between the Lithuanian municipalities. All local elections held since the restoration of Lithuania’s independence are analyzed (a total of six elections from 1995–2011). Dissertation is based on all the principal theoretical explanations of electoral volatility: sociostructural theory, economic voting, party system and institutional-contextual factors. Some theories are modified in order for them to be used in the context of Lithuanian local elections. Dissertation also proposes a four-fold party system classification that allows discerning different long-term coalitional patterns in Lithuanian municipal councils. The empirical investigation relies on quantitative (statistical) methods: descriptive statistics, correlation coefficients, non-parametric tests of population comparison and ordinary least squares regression. Three dependent variables (facets of electoral volatility) are used in the empirical analysis: total electoral volatility, extra-systemic volatility and vote share stability of a municipality’s dominant (mayor’s) party. It is found in the dissertation that these three facets of electoral volatility are influenced by various factors: cultural heterogeneity (increases electoral volatility), supply of parties, the correspondence between local and national party systems, electoral turnout (influence weakens since 2002), party membership density (influence not stable)... [to full text]

The aim of this dissertation is to analyze and explain the variance of electoral volatility between the Lithuanian municipalities. All local elections held since the restoration of Lithuania’s independence are analyzed (a total of six elections from 1995–2011). Dissertation is based on all the principal theoretical explanations of electoral volatility: sociostructural theory, economic voting, party system and institutional-contextual factors. Some theories are modified in order for them to be used in the context of Lithuanian local elections. Dissertation also proposes a four-fold party system classification that allows discerning different long-term coalitional patterns in Lithuanian municipal councils. The empirical investigation relies on quantitative (statistical) methods: descriptive statistics, correlation coefficients, non-parametric tests of population comparison and ordinary least squares regression. Three dependent variables (facets of electoral volatility) are used in the empirical analysis: total electoral volatility, extra-systemic volatility and vote share stability of a municipality’s dominant (mayor’s) party. It is found in the dissertation that these three facets of electoral volatility are influenced by various factors: cultural heterogeneity (increases electoral volatility), supply of parties, the correspondence between local and national party systems, electoral turnout (influence weakens since 2002), party membership density (influence not stable)... [to full text] / Šios disertacijos tikslas yra ištirti ir paaiškinti rinkėjų elgsenos kaitumo skirtumus rinkimuose į savivaldybių tarybas tarp Lietuvos savivaldybių. Tiriami visi nuo Lietuvos nepriklausomybės atkūrimo vykę demokratiniai savivaldos rinkimai (iš viso šeši rinkimai nuo 1995 m. iki 2011 m.). Disertacijoje remiamasi visais svarbiausiais teoriniais rinkėjų elgsenos kaitumo aiškinimais: sociostruktūra, ekonominis balsavimas, partinė sistema ir instituciniai-kontekstiniai veiksniai. Kai kurios teorijos yra modifikuojamos tam, kad jas būtų galima naudoti Lietuvos savivaldos rinkimų kontekste. Disertacijoje siūloma partinių sistemų klasifikacija pagal partijų koalicinio elgesio šablonus ilgajame laikotarpyje, įgalinanti atskirti partines sistemas Lietuvos savivaldybių tarybose. Empirinis tyrimas remiasi kiekybiniais (statistiniais metodais): aprašomoji statistika, ryšio matai, neparametriniai populiacijų skirtingumo matai ir tiesinė regresinė analizė. Empirinėje analizėje naudojami trys priklausomi kintamieji, kurie atitinka tris rinkėjų elgsenos kaitumo aspektus: bendras rinkėjų elgsenos kaitumas, išorinis nestabilumas ir savivaldybėje dominuojančios (mero) partijos balsų pokytis. Disertacijoje atrandama kad šie trys rinkėjų elgsenos kaitumo aspektai yra veikiami įvairių veiksnių: kultūrinio heterogeniškumo (didina rinkėjų elgsenos kaitumą), partijų pasiūlos, atitikimo tarp vietos ir nacionalinės partinių sistemų, rinkiminio aktyvumo (įtaka susilpnėja nuo 2002 m.), partinės narystės... [toliau žr. visą tekstą]

Why do some authoritarian states have competitive elections? This study shows that whenever there is a balance of power between candidates, competitiveness will ensue. Electoral fraud is often widespread in autocratic states, but if no single candidate or party is in a position to monopolize electoral support the result will be competitive. The contribution here is to analyze the relative strength of all the actors involved in a parliamentary election and to show that electoral returns reflect the district level balance of power, even in autocracies. Three main sources of candidate-level electoral power are identified: state, market, and society. State affiliated candidates in authoritarian states perform well due to favorable treatment by state institutions. Market actors perform well due to financial resources. These actors arise when market reforms create a class of entrepreneurs that defend their interests by running for public office, often challenging state sanctioned candidates. The strength of candidates using social cleavages, here mainly ‘clan’ and ethnic, is found to be exaggerated in the literature. The study also confirms that competitiveness did not result from an active civil society. Competitive  elections matter because they can severely destabilize the regime, as was the case in Kyrgyzstan in 2005. However, electoral competitiveness that is the result of an intra-elite balance of power should not be confused with democracy. This form of self-interested competitiveness where clientelism is pervasive and accountability mechanisms are weak is an affront to the democratic ideal. For those of us who advocate democracy and genuine political participation competitive authoritarian regimes can be used as an informative cautionary tale. Power matters, and especially so in authoritarian states. Understanding the logic behind competitive authoritarianism helps us revise strategies for lasting democratic reforms.

Esta tesis contribuye a varios campos del conocimiento. Primero, en ella se estudia el efecto ambiguo que la tecnología de Internet tiene en la estructura de costes de transacción en el caso de las ventas al por menor. En segundo lugar, esta tesis estudia empíricamente que factores determinan la adopción de la tecnología de Internet y la telefonía celular a nivel mundial desde 1980. Se demuestra que las diferencias entre países están determinadas en gran medida por el clima de inversión que afecta los incentivos de adoptar tecnologías basadas en activos específicos. Finalmente de desarrolla y pone a prueba una teoría que relaciona los sistemas electorales y las configuraciones de gobierno con la protección de los derechos de propiedad. Se propone un modelo, que establece una relación negativa entre el número de instituciones de toma de decisión consensual y el grado de protección de los derechos de propiedad. / This research contributes to several fields of knowledge. It studies the ambiguous effects that the Internet has on the transaction costs structure in the case of retailing. Next, it presents an empirical study of the determinants of worldwide Internet and cellular phone penetration levels since 1980. It is shown that cross-country differences in the use of information and communication technologies (ICT) are to a considerable extent due to differences in investment climate, which determines the incentives to adopt technologies based on site-specific assets. Finally, this thesis develops and tests a theory regarding the effect that electoral formats and government configurations have on the degree of property rights protection. A formal model is presented, which establishes a negative relationship between the number of institutions of consensual collective decision-making and the degree of property rights protection.

Els governs de coalició poden, per una banda, dividir-se les tasques i funcionar de forma compartimentalitzada, on cada soci decideixi sol les polítiques sota les seves jurisdiccions ministerials. Per contra, també poden optar pel compromís entre els partits i decidir col•lectivament en cada àrea sectorial, amb independència del repartiment de carteres. En el seu primer paper, aquesta tesis ofereix un marc teòric per entendre aquesta variació, amb la intenció d’identificar les condicions sota les quals és més probable un tipus de governança coalicional o altra. El segon paper testa empíricament les implicacions d’aquests arguments sobre la manera com els membres d’una coalició es vigilen mútuament mitjançant l’ús de mecanismes de control. Finalment, en el tercer paper s’ofereix un exercici empíric on s’analitza fins a quin punt els votants jutgen de manera diferent cada un dels socis de govern en funció del tipus de coalició a què s’enfronten. / At an extreme, coalition partners can divide tasks and individually decide policy in their ministerial jurisdictions in a compartmentalized way. At the other extreme, parties sharing office can compromise and collectively set policy in each dimension regardless of portfolio allocation. In its first paper, this dissertation provides a theoretical account of this variation, trying to unravel the conditions under which one type of governance is more likely than the other. The second paper tests empirically the implications of these arguments on the way coalition partners keep tabs on each other through the establishment of control mechanisms. Finally, an empirical exercise is offered in the third paper to study the extent to which voters assess each coalition partner differently depending on the type of coalition they face. Variation in the types of coalition governance, we conclude, is an important factor to take into account in political science research in the field.

This thesis is focused on the nationalization of party systems in Western Europe and combines four different approaches. Despite the literature claiming that political decentralization reduces party system nationalization, the first paper shows that this effect depends on the level of personalism that the electoral system allows. The second article shows a new effect of the nationalization of party systems. This variable is shown to be a crucial element to explain turnout differences across districts within a country. The third article of this thesis is centered on the impact of the electoral system on party system nationalization through a crucial-experimental approach based on electoral reforms in Western Europe. Finally, the last part of the thesis focuses on describing and analyzing the nationalization of political parties in Spain, paying particular attention to differences among national and subnational parties. / Esta tesis doctoral está centrada en la nacionalización de los sistemas de partidos en Europa Occidental desde cuatro perspectivas diferentes. Una hipótesis clásica de la literatura es que la descentralización política reduce la nacionalización. En el primer artículo se muestra que el efecto de esta variable depende de que haya un grado suficiente de personalismo en el sistema electoral. En el segundo artículo se demuestra un nuevo efecto de la nacionalización de los sistemas de partidos; esta variable determina las diferencias en la participación electoral entre distritos dentro de un mismo país. El tercer artículo se aproxima al fenómeno mediante experimentos cruciales centrados en las reformas del sistema electoral en Europa Occidental a fin de estimar su efecto sobre la nacionalización. Finalmente, el último artículo analiza la nacionalización de los partidos en España y sus principales determinantes, distinguiendo particularmente entre partidos de ámbito nacional y subnacional.

Submitted by Ronildo Prado (ronisp@ufscar.br) on 2017-08-22T16:34:39Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DissRML.pdf: 1382576 bytes, checksum: aaf8d9ef28001429ccce35fb1540a274 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Ronildo Prado (ronisp@ufscar.br) on 2017-08-22T16:34:47Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DissRML.pdf: 1382576 bytes, checksum: aaf8d9ef28001429ccce35fb1540a274 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Ronildo Prado (ronisp@ufscar.br) on 2017-08-22T16:34:53Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DissRML.pdf: 1382576 bytes, checksum: aaf8d9ef28001429ccce35fb1540a274 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-08-22T16:35:00Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DissRML.pdf: 1382576 bytes, checksum: aaf8d9ef28001429ccce35fb1540a274 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-09-21 / Não recebi financiamento / The preparation of an election campaign is developed to transmit matters that the mass media want to reach the public discussion. So, it is widely important to the electoral dispute because it is one of the elements responsible for making the approach candidate / voter and hence for the decision of his vote. With high coverage that television currently has in Brazil, it is possible to expose the candidate's message to a large number of voters especially with the Horário Gratuito de Propaganda Eleitoral (HGPE) that allows all candidates an access to a free time on television to broadcast their campaign. The aim of this research is to make a parallel of Dilma Rousseff campaign, the candidate of the Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) for the presidency of the republic of Brazil in 2010 and 2014 elections and to analyze the lines of continuity and break between the campaigns in both elections, taken the differences between political moments lived through the candidate in both years. This analysis will be done through the study HGPE broadcast on television. / A elaboração de uma campanha eleitoral é desenvolvida com o intuito de transmitir assuntos que os mass media desejam que cheguem à discussão do público, dado isso, sua elaboração é de suma importância para a disputa eleitoral, pois é um dos elementos responsáveis por fazer a aproximação candidato/eleitor, e consequentemente para a decisão do voto deste. Com a alta abrangência que a televisão tem atualmente no Brasil, é possível expor as mensagens do candidato a um alto número de eleitores principalmente com o Horário Gratuito de Propaganda Eleitoral (HGPE) que permite que todos os candidatos tenham acesso a um tempo gratuito na televisão para transmitir sua propaganda. O objetivo da desta pesquisa é fazer uma comparação das campanhas de Dilma Rousseff, candidata do Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) à presidência da República do Brasil nas eleições de 2010 e 2014 para analisar as linhas de continuidade e ruptura entre as campanhas dos dois pleitos, tomadas as diferenças entre os momentos políticos passados pela candidata nos dois anos. Essa análise será feita por meio do estudo HGPE transmitido na televisão.

Que traduit la hausse de la participation aux élections présidentielles françaises de 2007 et américaines 2008 ? À partir d’enquêtes électorales française, américaine et canadienne, notre étude met en lumière les changements d’attitudes politiques des citoyens survenus ces dernières années et la pratique croissante d’une participation intermittente et sélective. Ces changements qui résultent de logiques d’individualisation ont permis aux individus de s’extirper de contraintes d’appartenance sociale et de s’affranchir d’allégeances partisanes. Leur jugement se fonde désormais sur une évaluation des critères de l’offre électorale. L’individualisation des valeurs en politique se traduit notamment par une évolution du sens du vote et une hiérarchisation des scrutins. Les électeurs ne se délaissent pas les élections, ils choisissent simplement de participer autrement. Plus instruits, plus autonomes et plus critiques, ces citoyens prescrivent des changements profonds de l’offre. Afin de rallier le plus grand nombre de suffrages, les candidats se voient contraints d’adapter leurs dispositifs stratégiques aux évolutions des comportements politiques des citoyens : structuration des partis, modernisation des campagnes électorales, militantisme à « la carte », nouvelles formes d’engagement politique, usage de l’Internet. Tout est fait pour que le citoyen individualisé trouve dans ces manières de faire la politique les bonnes raisons de voter. / What does the increase of the voter turnout in the 2007 French and the 2008 American presidential election mean? With the French, American and Canadian surveys, we highlight the changes in the political attitude of the citizens occurred in recent years. The voters are now practicing an intermittent and selective voting. This changing political behavior reflects a growing individualization values in politics. They are making their mind up from an assessment of the electoral issues positions, an evolution of the meaning of the vote and, a priorization of elections. Voters are not leaving the polling stations, they are only choosing to participate in different way. More educated, autonomous and critical, the citizens require deep changes in the political evaluations. So, by winning number of votes, candidates have to adapt their strategical plan of actions by including the individualized behavior of the citizens : structuring the political party, modernizing the electoral campaigns, promoting a membership “à la carte”, developing new forms of political engagement, and using the Internet. Everything is done to increase the individualized citizens vote.

Submitted by Maria Medeiros (maria.dilva1@ufcg.edu.br) on 2018-08-01T14:44:30Z No. of bitstreams: 1 CYNTIA CAROLINA BESERRA BRASILEIRO - TESE (PPGCS) 2017.pdf: 1646995 bytes, checksum: 3765626a3a202b6faa820b6f840b57d2 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-01T14:44:30Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 CYNTIA CAROLINA BESERRA BRASILEIRO - TESE (PPGCS) 2017.pdf: 1646995 bytes, checksum: 3765626a3a202b6faa820b6f840b57d2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-08 / Capes / Esta tese tem como objetivo compreender as visões elaboradas pelos eleitores em Campina Grande – PB acerca da Representação Política no regime democrático. A problemática pretende questionar a existência de uma crise de representatividade e o impacto da mesma sobre a concepção e vivência da política. Parte-se do pressuposto de que as práticas eleitorais vivenciadas por ocasião de uma campanha eleitoral acabam por assinalar toda uma disputa estruturada, ritual e simbolicamente, que nos leva a compreender como se objetiva o restabelecimento da crença do eleitor e, consequentemente no fortalecimento da democracia. Buscou-se no processo político a compreensão de como as disputas eleitorais, as campanhas, a construção de imagens são experienciadas pelo eleitor e como eles pensam este processo. Este momento que, por um lado, fundamenta a opinião pública e conquista o eleitor, por outro lado revela-se um ambiente de diferenças e contravenções que arrefece a concepção democrática. Para realização da pesquisa, tomamos como universo os eleitores da cidade de Campina Grande, considerando uma abordagem socioantropologica que nos permitiu adentrar numa nova compreensão entre o eleitor, o candidato, as instituições e regras que o permeiam. Partiu-se de um roteiro semiestruturado que nos possibilitou dialogar com pessoas selecionadas a partir do critério etário, tomando como base aquelas pessoas que nasceram antes de 1985, que acompanharam um período que antecedem o cenário democrático no país e pós-1985 que compreendem uma nova leitura do espetáculo democrático. Realizando dezesseis entrevistas no período de fevereiro a junho do ano de 2016, priorizou-se em nossa análise as eleições majoritárias, mas, os diálogos com os entrevistados extrapolaram esta referência, o que nos fez pensar o processo político, a exemplo da disputa eleitoral, em outros aspectos, já que o próprio eleitor diferencia os pleitos municipais, estaduais e federais. A chegada da democracia revelou-se um conjunto de desafios, não aparece como algo encerrado, aponta-se toda uma construção de como se sustenta uma disputa entre desiguais, denotando nossas fragilidades na enunciação que os eleitores fazem das atitudes políticas que chamam de (anti) democráticas: descrença nos partidos, nas instituições, na condução do processo eleitoral, na desordem que se instaurou no país. Por outro lado, mesmo que as falas apontem para uma descrença, esse processo de ‘abertura’ democrática foi pensado como momento de mudanças e esperança, no desejo de igualdade entre nós, revelam uma ideia de devir, de uma democracia em construção. / This thesis aims to understand the visions elaborated by the voters in Campina Grande - PB about the Political Representation in the democratic regime. The problem seeks to question the existence of a crisis of representativeness and the impact of it on the conception and experience of politics. It is based on the assumption that the electoral practices experienced during an electoral campaign end up in a structured, ritual and symbolic dispute that leads us to understand how to re-establish the voter's belief and, consequently, to strengthen democracy. We sought in the political process the understanding of how electoral disputes, campaigns, the construction of images are experienced by the voter and how they think this process. This moment, which, on the one hand, underpins public opinion and conquers the voter, on the other hand it reveals an environment of differences and contraventions that cools the democratic conception. To carry out the research, we took as a universe the voters of the city of Campina Grande, considering a socio-anthropological approach that allowed us to enter into a new understanding between the voter, the candidate, the institutions and the rules that permeate it. It was based on a semi-structured script that enabled us to dialogue with people selected on the basis of the age criterion, based on those people who were born before 1985, who followed a period that preceded the democratic scenario in the country and post-1985 that comprise a new reading of the democratic spectacle. After conducting sixteen interviews in the period from February to June of the year 2016, the majority elections were prioritized in our analysis, but the dialogues with the interviewees extrapolated this reference, which made us think about the political process, such as the electoral contest, in other aspects, since the voter himself differentiates the municipal, state and federal lawsuits. The arrival of democracy has proved to be a set of challenges, it does not appear as a closed thing, it points out a whole construction of how a dispute between unequals stands, denoting our weaknesses in voters' enunciation of the political attitudes they call) democratic: disbelief in the parties, in the institutions, in the conduct of the electoral process, in the disorder that was established in the country. On the other hand, even if the lines point to disbelief, this process of democratic 'openness' was thought as a moment of change and hope, in the desire for equality between us, reveal an idea of becoming, a democracy under construction.