Les systèmes d’échange de quotas d’émission (SEQEs) sont un instrument de régulation environnementale important et ont un rôle clef à jouer dans la réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre pour l’atténuation du changement climatique. Cette thèse a une double orientation : les liaisons spatiales entre SEQEs d'une part et les échanges inter-temporels au sein d’un SEQE d'autre part.Les liaisons entre SEQEs peuvent aider à établir un futur cadre de politique climatique mondiale coût-efficient. Cependant, ces liaisons sont difficiles à mettre en place et à ce jour, peu nombreuses. Dans un premier temps, à l’aide d’un modèle simple et unifié et en se basant sur des expériences réelles de SEQEs, nous comparons différentes restrictions à l’échange comme éléments facilitants une transition vers le libre échange de quotas. Dans un deuxième temps, nous construisons un modèle qui décrit et caractérise analytiquement les effets et gains associés à des liaisons multilatérales sous incertitude. Ensuite, le modèle est calibré sur émissions historiques de différentes juridictions pour illustrer les déterminants des préférences de liaison.Les SEQEs sont sujets à de l’incertitude réglementaire, ce qui peut affaiblir leurs efficience coût dynamique et signal prix de long terme. La prévalence d’une telle incertitude peut être assimilée à une situation d’ambiguïté. Nous analysons alors les décisions inter-temporelles d’entités couvertes par un SEQE et averses à l’ambiguïté puis caractérisons les distorsions induites sur le fonctionnement du système. Nous discutons enfin de l’éclairage apportés par ces résultats en rapport aux observations faites dans les SEQEs existants. / Emissions Trading Systems (ETSs) are an important instsrument in regulating pollution and have a key role to play in reducing greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate climate change. This dissertation has a twin focus: spatial linkages between ETSs at a point in time and intertemporal trading within an ETS.Linkages between ETSs are crucial for cost-effectiveness of the future climate policy architecture. Complete linkages, however, are difficult to agree and to date, few and far between. Here, our contribution is twofold. First, using a simple and unified model and drawing on experiences with real-world ETSs, we compare alternative trade restrictions on bilateral linkages in facilitating the transition to an unrestricted link. Second, we provide a general model to describe and analytically characterize the effects and gains from multilateral linkages under uncertainty. The model is then calibrated to historical emissions of real-world jurisdictions to illustrate the determinants of linkage preferences.ETSs are subject to regulatory uncertainty, which can disrupt dynamic cost-effectiveness and undermine their long-term price signal. The prevalence of regulatory uncertainty can be assimilated to a situation of ambiguity. Here, our contribution is to analyze regulated entities’ intertemporal decisions under ambiguity aversion, characterize the induced distortions in market functioning, and discuss how these can help explain observations from existing ETSs.

No description available.

The initiative by the EU to combat global warming through the introduction of a cap-and-trade system for greenhouse gas emissions in 2005, known as the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), resulted in the inception of a new financial market. The right to emit one tonne of CO2-equivalents, as well as derivatives on this right, have become commodities, traded both through exchanges and over the counter. A relevant question thus becomes how a market maker trading these derivatives should hedge their exposures. This thesis examines how stochastic optimisation can be used to hedge a portfolio of futures, forwards, and emissions rights in the EU ETS, while taking into account market microstructre effects such as transaction costs. This is done through the implementation of a Stochastic Programming (SP) model that weights portfolio risk against transaction costs,where the entire term structure of futures is Monte Carlo-simulated. The term structure of the futures is analysed by decomposing futures prices into the spot price, the term structure of the risk free interest rate, and the term structure of the convenience yield, as was first done by Working (1948). These are estimated using the non-parametric optimisation framework of Blomvall (2017), where EUROIS contracts and ICE EUA futures are used as benchmark instruments. It was found that the method results in smooth yield curves with small repricing errors, thanks to suitable parameter calibration through 3-fold Cross Validation for both curves. From day-to-day changes in the resulting curves, three systematic risk factors for each curve, that capture more than 98% of the variance during the analysed period from October 2012 to March 2018, were found with PCA. These factors were then fitted to univariate GARCH-models, and normal mixture copulas. This model allows for the hedging problem to be solved with SP. For the out-of-sample period from March 2018 to April 2022, the results show promise, as the portfolios hedged with SP are considerably less volatile than both a statically hedged and an unhedged portfolio. Furthermore, for some values of the parameter weighting risk and costs, these portfolios yield mean variance efficiency.

Flying can constitute as much as a third of an academic institution’s total emissions and there’s a growing concern among researchers around their academic travel contributing to global warming. This paper is part of KTH FLIGHT, a research project for decreased CO2-emissions in flight-intensive organizations through creation and testing of practical tools. It is a Research through Design work that provides new knowledge about a previously largely unexplored implementation area of emission trading systems like Cap and Trade. These have previously helped reduce emissions at lower costs than tax based systems in various settings but little research exists in terms of design and important factors for a university to promote more sustainable travel patterns. This paper reveals challenges and opportunities regarding implementation and shows current feasibility in implementing in a Swedish university (KTH), and provides suggestions for choosing suitable users and direction of future research. / Flygresor kan utgöra upp till en tredjedel av en akademisk institutions totala utsläpp och det finns en växande oro bland forskare kring att deras resande bidrar till den globala uppvärmningen. Denna rapport är en del av KTH FLIGHT, ett forskningsprojekt med syfte att minska CO2 -utsläpp i flygintensiva organisationer genom att skapa och testa praktiska verktyg. Detta är ett Research through Design-arbete som bidrar med ny kunskap om ett tidigare till stor del outforskat område för implementeringar av utsläppshandelssystem såsom Cap and Trade. Dessa har i olika sammanhang tidigare bidragit till minskade utsläpp med lägre kostnader än skattebaserade system. Men i dagsläget finns det lite forskning gällande dess design och viktiga faktorer för att främja mer hållbara resvanor på ett universitet. Denna uppsats visar på utmaningar och möjligheter vid en implementering och visar aktuell genomförbarhet i ett svenskt universitet (KTH), samt ger förslag på val av lämpliga användare samt inriktning för framtida forskning.

This thesis analyzes how the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) evolved in response to the European Green Deal, with a particular focus on climate justice. In previous trading periods, the ETS faced extensive criticism from researchers and international environmental organizations, who argued that the system exacerbated social and economic inequalities. However, as part of the Green Deal, the ETS underwent reforms with stricter regulations, clearer targets, and the inclusion of more sectors. The aim of this thesis is to analyze these changes and assess whether the system could now be considered just. The analysis is conducted using a critical approach and an ideal-type analysis, evaluating the ETS according to two justice-based criteria: effectiveness and the equitable distribution of climate change responsibilities. The results indicates that the current form of the emission trading system fails to meet the standards of fairness on both criteria.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2002. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: One of the most topical and widely discussed factors which could lead to the ultimate end of life on earth is global warming and its devastating effects. Several current trends clearly demonstrate that global warming is directly impacting on rising sea levels, the melting of icecaps and other significant worldwide climatic changes. These climatic changes will have a profound effect on the economy of the world as well as having health and social consequences for humans on earth. It has also become evident that mankind has played a significant role in causing global warming through its excessive burning of fossil fuels and its deforestation activities. Mainstream economists have increasingly realised that the prime cause of environmental problems is the absence of markets and more specifically, the absence of private ownership, which provide the foundation for markets. This occurrence has also been described in the literature as the tragedy of the commons. Mankind has come to a point in its history whereby it is in great danger of causing its own annihilation through the destruction of its natural environment. As a result of this, world leaders and many industrialists have realised that it is essential that the world must do something to preserve the natural environment. This was the rationale behind the Kyoto Protocol. In Kyoto 38 industrial states undertook to reduce their total emissions of six important greenhouse gases by at least 5 percent by the period 2012 at the latest. It was agreed in Kyoto that the system to be used to curb global warming should be based on free market principles that would focus on limiting the tragedy of the commons. On this basis it was agreed that the international trade in greenhouse gas emission allowances might fulfil an important role in providing countries and companies with the capabilities to achieve part of their reduction obligations. The Kyoto mechanism was therefore designed on the basis of emissions trading, but also had an equity objective with respect to developing countries. Supporters of the trading scheme are of the opinion that this market will guarantee that certain emission targets are met. In principle, the international trade in emission credits offers several advantages in terms of a flexible and cost-efficient realisation of the reduction obligations undertaken at Kyoto. Supporters of emissions trading are also of the opinion that trading in these gases also has economic and technological benefits. The answer to global warming might be as simple as buy low, sell high conventions. Now greenhouse-gas emissions are becoming a commodity that can be bought and sold on a worldwide scale, just like gold or soybeans. It is expected that the trading in greenhouse-gas emission rights will ultimately constitute the largest commodities market in the world. An international market for greenhouse gas emission allowances is already developing. However, rules governing such transactions are not fully worked out yet. The 178-nation Kyoto Protocol on global warming may provide a start, despite the US's refusal to support the treaty. It will be the aim of this thesis to provide understanding in terms of the functioning of emissions trading schemes and therefore the Kyoto mechanism as a solution to this problem of global warming. It will also be an important objective of this thesis to provide insight into the issues applicable to climatic change and the Kyoto mechanism. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Atmosfeerverwarming is wêreldwyd een van die mees bespreekte kwessies. Die nadelige effek van atmosfeerverwarming as gevolg van die toenemende kweekhuiseffek, het die potensiaal om tot die uiteindelike uitwissing van lewe op aarde te lei. Verskeie tendense dui daarop dat atmosfeerverwarming 'n direkte impak op stygende seevlakke, die ontvriesing van die pakys by die pole en ander noemenswaardige klimaatsversteuringe het. Indien iets drasties nie gedoen word om atmosfeer verhitting te keer nie, sal klimaatsversteuringe 'n geweldig nadelige effek op die wêreld ekonomie te weeg bring, asook 'n nadelige effek op gesondheids- en sosiale toestande tot gevolg hê. Dit het duidelik geword dat die aktiwiteite van die mensdom, hoofsaaklik verbranding van fossielbrandstowwe en ontbossing, te blameer is vir atmosfeerverwarming. Ekonome wêreldwyd het toenemend besef dat die hoofrede vir omgewingsprobleme, soos atmosfeerverwarming, toegeskryf kan word aan die afwesigheid van markte en meer spesifiek die afwesigheid van privaatbesit, wat in effek die basis van die vrye mark vorm. Hierdie gebeurtenis word in die ekonomiese literatuur beskryf as die "tragedie van die gemene goedere" . Wêreldpolitici en industriële leiers het besef dat die mens by 'n punt in sy geskiedenis gekom het waar hy moontlik sy eie uitwissing kan bewerkstellig en dat iets drasties gedoen moet word om die natuurlike omgewing te beskerm om sodoende volhoubare ekonomiese groei te verseker. Hierdie besef het gelei tot die totstandkoming van die Kyoto Protokol waar 38 nywerheidslande ooreengekom het om voor die jaar 2012 hul totale nasionale emissies van die ses belangrikste kweekhuisgasse met ten minste 5 persent tot onder hul 1990 emissievlakke te verminder. Daar was in Kyoto ooreengekom dat die stelsel wat gebruik moet word om die Kyoto doelwitte te bereik sterk vryemark eienskappe moet besit asook meganismes om regverdigheid en gelykheid tussen lande in terme van kweekhuisgasbeperkings te verseker. Die Kyoto meganismes is ontwerp met sterk vryemark eienskappe, wat basies 'n stelsel is waarvolgens lugbesoedelingsregte verhandel kan word. Hierdie verhandeling van besoedelingsregte kan toegepas word om kweekhuis gasse te verminder. Die Kyoto meganismes en dus lugbesoedelingsverhandeling verskaf buigbaarheid aan besighede en lande om hul onderskeie besoedelingsbeperkingsdoelwitte op die mees koste effektiewe manier te bereik. Die antwoord op atmosfeer verwarming kan dalk so eenvoudig wees soos koop laag en verkoop hoog. Kweekhuisgasse is besig om net soos graan of goud 'n kommoditeit te raak. Daar word verwag dat die verhandeling in kweekhuis gas besoedelingsregte uiteindelik sal groei tot die grootste kommoditeitsmark ter wêreld. Ondersteuners van die Kyoto meganismes is van mening dat kweekhuisgas verhandeling ook ekonomiese en tegnologiese voordele inhou. Dit is 'n oogmerk van die Kyoto meganismes om die verskuiwing van tegnologie tussen ontwikkelde en ontwikkelende lande asook volhoubare groei te verseker. 'n Grysmark vir kweekhuisgas regte is reeds internasionaal, voor die beplande instelling van die Kyoto meganismes, aan die ontwikkel. Die reëls en regulasies vir die Kyoto meganismes is nog nie gefinaliseer nie. Dit en die onwilligheid van die VSA om die Protokol te onderteken, belemmer die vroegtydige implementering van die Kyoto meganismes en die effektiwiteit van die stelsel. Dit is die doelwit van die werkstuk om die leser bekend te maak met die funksionering van emissieverhandeling as 'n vryemark stelsel om omgewingsprobleme soos atmosfeerverwarming te verminder. Die werkstuk beoog ook om die kwessies betrokke by klimaatsverandering en die Kyoto meganismes aan die leser te verduidelik.

The estimation of afforestation reservation prices for small landowners in New Zealand has not been the subject of much research despite its importance in predicting future land use. Reservation prices for planting represent the minimum payment a landowner must receive before converting land from agriculture to forest. A survey of 728 landowners from every region of New Zealand who own between 20 and 200 hectares of forest as well as other unplanted land used for agriculture were surveyed about forestland, forest land owner demographics, ownership objectives, silviculture and reservation prices. In this study, reservation price strategies were investigated by offering hypothetical annual and one-time payments for converting land from agriculture to forestry. From this survey, the average one-time payment a landowner would be willing to accept to convert a hectare of land from agriculture to forestry was $3,554 and the average annual payment to convert a hectare of land was $360. The key factors influencing the reservation price were; whether or not the landowner lived on the property, if one of the ownership objectives was income from carbon, the primary agricultural enterprise and total household income. An implied discount rate was calculated for each landowner and excluding those who would not accept any payment the average after-tax discount rate was 9.7%. Small landowners indicated that their primary reason for owning plantation forest was income from timber with very few landowners using their forest land for recreation. The median farm size was 400 hectares and the median forest plantation was 37 hectares. Planting of radiata pine peaked in 1994 and 1995 with more radiata pine planted in 1994 than in all the years from 2000-2009. Most landowners are performing some type of silviculture in their forests. Ninety percent of landowners are pruning in the current rotation while only 61% plan to prune in the future. Only 26% of landowners have engaged in any commercial harvesting in the past ten years but as their current rotation matures 71% plan to replant on the same site. A majority of respondents thought the situation for forest landowners was getting better. Understanding the reservation price strategies of landowners is important for predicting future land use patterns and recognizing how close landowners are to converting land. The ownership objectives of landowners and the replanting decisions they make are critical for future timber supply. The results of this study can assist in the development of forest establishment incentive programmes. Better information about landowner characteristics will result in enhanced decision-making for the timber industry and the government in New Zealand.

Ce mémoire décrit et analyse différents types de systèmes d'échange de droits d'émission utilisés dans le cadre de politiques de gestion de la pollution atmosphérique. L'objectif premier est de répertorier des enjeux juridiques étant liés à l'efficacité de ces systèmes. Dans un premier temps, nous nous attardons à la structure et aux mécanismes internes des systèmes d'échange de droits d'émission. Tout d'abord, nous soulignons le fondement théorique de ce type de système. Nous évaluons par la suite la structure et certains litiges liés au système d'échange américain dans le cadre des émissions de dioxyde de soufre. Dans un deuxième temps, nous continuons la description de systèmes en nous attardant plus spécifiquement aux interactions entre les systèmes d'échange de droits d'émission et les autres politiques et règlementations environnementales (incluant d'autres systèmes d'échange d'émission) visant la même problématique environnementale. / The present essay describes and analyses different types of emissions trading schemes as an instrument in air quality and environmental policy. The objective is to index legal stakes or risks relating to the efficiency of emissions trading schemes. ln the first part, we evaluate the structure and the design of emissions trading schemes. The knowledge of the economic theory transcending those schemes is necessary to understand ail the structural mechanisms. After this evaluation, this essay proposes an analysis of the U.S. sulphur dioxide program based on the U.S. Clean Air Act and sorne of the litigations that occurred in the application of the said program. ln part two, we are describing the structure and the design of emissions trading schemes with the specific goal of underlining the interactions between different types of environmental policies or regulations and emissions trading schemes when they are ail used for the same environmental problem.

La prima parte della Tesi si occupa dello studio delle strategie di investimento ottime nel settore energetico e in ricerca e sviluppo, nell'ambito di politiche di stabilizzazione dei gas serra nell'atmosfera. La seconda parte tratta invece metodi per la quantificazione degli impatti economici dei cambiamenti climatici sul settore agricolo, considerando tutte le possibilità di adattamento. / The first part of the Thesis discusses optimal investment strategies in the energy sector and in R&D for knowledge advancements to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of GHG. The second part deals instead with the measurement of impacts of climate change on agriculture considering all possible adaptation options.

Ce mémoire décrit et analyse différents types de systèmes d'échange de droits d'émission utilisés dans le cadre de politiques de gestion de la pollution atmosphérique. L'objectif premier est de répertorier des enjeux juridiques étant liés à l'efficacité de ces systèmes. Dans un premier temps, nous nous attardons à la structure et aux mécanismes internes des systèmes d'échange de droits d'émission. Tout d'abord, nous soulignons le fondement théorique de ce type de système. Nous évaluons par la suite la structure et certains litiges liés au système d'échange américain dans le cadre des émissions de dioxyde de soufre. Dans un deuxième temps, nous continuons la description de systèmes en nous attardant plus spécifiquement aux interactions entre les systèmes d'échange de droits d'émission et les autres politiques et règlementations environnementales (incluant d'autres systèmes d'échange d'émission) visant la même problématique environnementale. / The present essay describes and analyses different types of emissions trading schemes as an instrument in air quality and environmental policy. The objective is to index legal stakes or risks relating to the efficiency of emissions trading schemes. ln the first part, we evaluate the structure and the design of emissions trading schemes. The knowledge of the economic theory transcending those schemes is necessary to understand ail the structural mechanisms. After this evaluation, this essay proposes an analysis of the U.S. sulphur dioxide program based on the U.S. Clean Air Act and sorne of the litigations that occurred in the application of the said program. ln part two, we are describing the structure and the design of emissions trading schemes with the specific goal of underlining the interactions between different types of environmental policies or regulations and emissions trading schemes when they are ail used for the same environmental problem. / "Mémoire présenté à la Faculté des études supérieures en vue de l'obtention du grade de Maîtrise en droit (LL.M.) option recherche". Ce mémoire a été accepté à l'unanimité et classé parmi les 15% des mémoires de la discipline. Commentaires du jury ; "Le jury souligne la difficulté du sujet et l'importance des enjeux économiques, politiques et juridiques. Le candidat a bien déblayé le sujet et a su structurer son analyse de manière intéressante".