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"Lite snyggare, lite mer partyaktiga, lite mer Paradise" : En kritisk diskursanalys av kön och sexualitet i Paradise Hotel / "A bit hotter, a little more party-like, a little more Paradise" : A critical discourse analysis of gender and sexuality in Paradise HotelNygren, Sirinard, Persson, Jenny January 2015 (has links)
The purpose of this thesis is to examine how power structures concerning gender and sexuality emerge through the use of language in the Swedish reality show Paradise Hotel. Of particular interest is the representation of heterosexual relations in the show. Because of its interest in the relationship between power, gender and sexuality, the thesis is based on theories from gender and discourse studies. The specific theories referred to are Michel Foucault’s understanding of power, stereotypes according to Stuart Hall, Yvonne Hirdman’s gender system and contract theory, Judith Butler’s heterosexual matrix and R.W. Connell’s theory of hegemonic masculinity. The empirical data consists of eight episodes of Paradise Hotel from 2014, which has been transcribed and analysed through the use of Norman Furlough’s critical discourse analysis (CDA). The results showed that Paradise Hotel portrays the male and female participants as fundamentally different and therefore they are allowed to behave in different ways. Among other things, it appeared that men have a high sex drive and they expect to get this need satisfied. The women on the other hand are discredited if they have sex with many partners. As a part of the concept of Paradise Hotel is to share rooms with a partner of the opposite sex there are certain expectations of intimacy. The male participants exercise power by claiming their partners as possessions. Neither do they respect the female boundaries regarding their bodies and sexuality. The women also participate in maintaining the patriarchal order in the show. However, some of the female participants oppose to a norm saying women should be sexually passive. For competition purposes they use their bodies and cunning in order to influence the men. Notably, while some of the discourses that emerged in the analysis reflect social power structures, others are reserved to Paradise Hotel since there are rules that only apply to the show.
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Internt pasienthotell, et alternativ til sengepost ved innleggelse i sengepost? / Internal Patienthotel, an alternative to admission in ordinary wardFøreland, Nina January 2009 (has links)
Medisinsk utvikling samt krav til kostnadseffektivitet i Norge har bidratt til et stort fokus på hvordan man kan redusere kostnadene, samtidig som man opprettholder/forbedrer kvaliteten på behandlingstilbudet. Pasienthotell omtales som en god driftsform for økt fleksibilitet og kostnadseffektivitet. Det er et tilbud for pasienter som er oppegående og selvhjulpne pasienter som har behov for innleggelse i sykehus. Pasienthotell har en salutogen tilnærming mens sengeposter tradisjonelt har hatt en patogenesetilnærming. Det er lite forskning på om omgjøring av ordinære senger til pasienthotell er kostnadseffektivt, spesielt når hotellsengen er et alternativ til ordinær sengepost. Hensikten er å studere hvilke pasienter som er innlagt i ordinære sengeposter, men egner seg for internt pasienthotell. Det benyttes tverrsnittsundersøkelse for å samle informasjon. Spørreskjemaet er utarbeidet med fokus på kriterier for å være i pasienthotellet, komplementerende behandling og observasjonsbehov samt medarbeidernes oppfatning om pasienten egner seg for pasienthotell. Kartleggingen er gjennomført ved Sørlandet sykehus, Kristiansand. Alle innlagte pasienter i ordinære sengeposter og pasienthotell er inkludert i kartleggingen. Pasienter i palliativpost, barselpost og observasjonsposten er ekskludert fra undersøkelsen. Kartleggingen ble gjennomført over en to ukers periode høsten 2007, og omfatter 951 pasientregistreringer. Flere pasienter ble registrert flere dager, noe som var hensikten fordi pasientene ble vurdert ut fra funksjonsnivå. Resultatet viser at ca 18 % av pasientene som er innlagt i sengepostene fyller kriteriene for pasienthotell. Fordelingen mellom Medisinsk og Kirurgisk klinikk er lik, men det er variasjoner per enhet. En stor andel av pasientene får komplementerende behandling og det er en overvekt i Kirurgisk klinikk. En stor andel av pasientene som fyller kriteriene har behov for spesielle observasjoner. Undersøkelsen viser en variasjon mellom pasientene som fyller kriteriene og medarbeidernes vurdering av hvilke pasienter som egner seg pasienthotellet. Det er liten variasjon mellom det faktiske resultat og medarbeidernes oppfatning av andel pasienter som fyller kriteriene når det er korrigert for komplementerende behandling og behov for spesielle observasjoner. På bakgrunn av resultatene er det grunnlag for å overføre flere pasienter fra sengepost til Pasienthotell. Det er kostnadseffektivt, og vil trolig ikke svekke kvaliteten. / Medical advances and demands for improved cost-effectiveness in Norway have contributed to a major focus on how to reduce costs while maintaining/improving the quality of treatment. A patient hotel is described as a way of achieving both increased flexibility and cost-effectiveness by offering more or less self-reliant patients an alternative to traditional hospitalization. Treatment in a patient hotel is based on a salutogenetic approach, while traditional hospital wards usually approach treatment pathogenetically. There is little research on whether converting traditional ward beds to the patient hotel model is indeed cost-effective, especially when patient hotel beds are considered an alternative to traditional ward beds. This study sought to determine which patients in traditional wards were suitable for admittance to an internal patient hotel. The study used a cross-sectional survey/questionnaire to collect data and focused on (i) the criteria for admission to a patient hotel, (ii) supplementary treatment, (iii) the patient’s need for special observation, and (iv) the employee’s perception of the patient suitability for the patient hotel. Our survey included 951 patients and was conducted at Sørlandet Sykehus, Kristiansand, Norway, during a two-week period in the autumn of 2007. The survey included all patients admitted to traditional wards and to the patient hotel, except patients in the palliative, maternity, and observation wards. Because we evaluated the patients according to their functional level, we intentionally recorded several patients over a span of several days. We determined that about 18% of patients admitted to traditional wards met the admission criteria for the patient hotel. Patient distribution between the Medical and Surgical Clinic was even, but there were variations per unit. A large proportion of the patients received supplementary treatment, including many from the Surgical Clinic. Many patients who fulfilled the criteria for admission to the patient hotel required special observation. The survey revealed a variation in the employees’ evaluation of which patients were suitable for the patient hotel. However, there was little variation between the actual results and the employees' perception of the proportion of patients who met the criteria when adjusted for supplementary treatment and the need for special observation. Based on the results of the study, it is reasonable to transfer patients from traditional wards to a patient hotel. Furthermore, this option is cost-effective and will not reduce the overall quality of patient care. / <p>ISBN 978-91-85721-77-1</p>
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Köns- och heteronormer i ett digitalt paradis / Gender norms and heteronormativity in a digital paradiseFröse, Ida, Holmquist, Sofia January 2014 (has links)
Syftet med den här uppsatsen är att undersöka på vilka sätt köns- och sexualitetsdiskurser kommer till uttryck i sociala medier i relation till framställningen av kön och sexualitet i tv, och vad det kan bero på. Syftet är även att undersöka vilken betydelse meningsreproduktionen och diskurserna på sociala medier kan ha för användarnas föreställningar om kön och sexualitet. Frågeställningarna är: “Reproduceras köns- och heteronormer under hashtagen #paradisehotelse på Twitter? I så fall, på vilket sätt och vad kan det bero på?” och “Skulle interaktionen med tv-programmet Paradise Hotel via Twitter kunna ha någon betydelse för Twitter-användarnas föreställningar om kön och sexualitet? I så fall, på vilket sätt?”. För att uppnå syftet genomförs netnografi och kritisk diskursanalys av inläggen på hashtagen #paradisehotelse. För att sedan analysera resultatet och besvara studiens frågeställningar, använder vi oss av teori om nya och sociala medier samt kultur- och genusteori. Det material vi utför den netnografiska analysen på kom att bli ungefär 2500 Twitter-inlägg. Materialet avgränsas dock inför den kritiska diskursanalysen. Resultaten visar att skribenterna på #paradisehotelse reproducerar köns- och heteronormer i en stor utsträckning, ofta implicit. Detta sker genom att de manliga Paradise Hotel-deltagarna ges ett större spelrum än de kvinnliga i sitt agerande, utseende och sexuella anspelning, utan att de uppfattas negativt. Köns- och heteronormer kan reproduceras i skribentens försök att själv passa in i dem samt att man förväntas uttrycka sig om givna saker och på ett givet sätt på hashtagen. De få skribenter som uttrycker kritik mot köns- och heteronormer gör detta enbart i relation till tydligt könsstereotypa händelser i Paradise Hotel. Meningsreproduktionen på hashtagen skulle kunna ha en betydelse för föreställningarna hos de Twitter-användare som är passiva i sin mediekonsumtion, vilket resultaten tyder på då majoriteten av skribenterna accepterar och återger, utan reflektion, det normativa innehållet i Paradise Hotel. Konsekvenserna kan vara skeva värderingar kring vad som är “rätt” och normalt kring kön och sexualitet, vilket är normer som skribenterna själva strävar efter att passa in i för att uppfattas normala. / Aim: This research aims to investigate how gender and sexuality discourses are expressed in social media, in connection with how gender and sexualities are presented in tv, and what reasons that could be behind it. The aim is also to research if and how the messages on social media could affect the Twitter users’ ideas of gender and sexuality. The research questions are: “Are gender norms and heteronormativity reproduced on the Twitter hashtag #paradisehotelse? If so, how and what could the reason/s be?” and “Could the interaction with the tv-show Paradise Hotel through Twitter affect the Twitter users’ ideas of gender and sexuality? If so, how?”. Method/Material: The methods that are used in order to achieve the purposes of this study, are netnography and critical discourse analysis. The material consists of approximately 2500 tweets that are produced on #paradisehotelse. To analyse the results and answer the research questions, theories about new and social media, gender and culture are applied to the study. Main results: Gender norms and heteronormativity are reproduced to a large extent on the hashtag, often implicitly. This happens by the Twitter users accepting and celebrating the male Paradise Hotel participators’ manners, sexuality and looks, whereas the females mostly are criticized for these aspects. The reasons behind the reproduction of norms of gender and heterosexuality on the hashtag could be that the writers are trying to represent themselves as normal by pointing out when someone else is diverging from the norms, or that one is expected to express in a certain way and about certain things on the hashtag. The few writers that question the norms only do so in relation to extreme incidents of Paradise Hotel that are obviously characterized by gender and heterosexuality norms. The tweets could affect the ideas of gender and sexuality of the Twitter users that are passive in their media consumption, which the results tell us that most of them are, based on their reproduction of the normative content of Paradise Hotel. The consequences could be narrow perspectives about gender and sexualities – what is considered “right” and normal – which are the norms that the writers themselves are striving to fit into to represent themselves as normal.
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Viagem ao redor do Atlântico : uma leitura comparada de Hotel Atlântico de João Gilberto Noll e Suzana AmaralYu, Jingfang January 2015 (has links)
Ce document vise à analyser le récit de l'écrivain João Gilberto Noll, Hotel Atlâtico (1989), et son adaptation cinématographique (2009) créée par la réalisatrice Suzana Amaral. L'étude comparative tient compte de l'hypothèse que le processus de traduction est, premièrement, une interprétation. Ainsi, la traduction du texte littéraire à travers le langage visuel est, en fait, une lecture critique de la réalisatrice, la quelle présente sa compréhension pour le livre. C'est à partir de ces hypothèses qu'on examinera les deux textes. Pendant l'étude, on approchera les choix faits par Amaral dans son processus de traduction intersémiotique, avec l'hypothèse que la réalisatrice situe la production littéraire de Noll dans son ensemble, en radicalisant les éléments présents dans le texte verbal. De cette manière, elle rompe radicalement avec les conventions de structure filmique traditionnelle, en situant son texte dans la conception de "traduction créative", élaborée par Haroldo de Campos. Ainsi, Suzana Amaral présente son interprétation du livre à travers sa propre création - le film Hotel Atlântico. / O presente trabalho pretende analisar a narrativa Hotel Atlântico (1989), de João Gilberto Noll, e sua adaptação cinematográfica (2009) realizada pela cineasta Suzana Amaral. O estudo comparativo leva em consideração a premissa de que o processo tradutório é primeiramente interpretação. Portanto, a cineasta, ao "transcriar" o texto literário por meio da linguagem visual, o que faz é leitura crítica do texto verbal, apresentando seu entendimento para o livro. É a partir desses pressupostos que serão analisados os dois textos em estudo. Na investigação, serão abordadas as escolhas feitas pela cineasta no seu processo de tradução intersemiótica, tendo a hipótese de que a diretora, ao considerar a produção literária de Noll como um todo, radicaliza os elementos presentes no texto verbal, rompendo radicalmente com as convenções da estrutura fílmica tradicional, inserindo, assim, seu texto no que Haroldo de Campos denomina como "tradução criativa". Dessa maneira, Suzana Amaral nos apresenta sua interpretação do livro através de seu Hotel Atlântico.
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Internacionalização de redes hoteleiras: um referencial analítico a partir das estratégias de entrada no mercado brasileiro / Internationalization of hotel chains: an analytical framework based on the entry strategy into the Brazilian marketColetti, Gabriel Furlan [UNESP] 27 March 2017 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2017-03-27 / O número de estudos que tratam da internacionalização de empresas tem aumentado nos últimos anos. Esse aumento é verificado, em grande medida, devido à adequação das teorias que tratam do tema à dinâmica do setor de serviços, tendo sido elas elaboradas originalmente para explicar o investimento estrangeiro de empresas industriais. Tal fenômeno ocorre em função do crescimento da importância do setor terciário na economia mundial e, principalmente, pela incorporação de diversos serviços em todas as cadeias produtivas da indústria. Essas estruturas de produção acompanham a divisão internacional do trabalho, com etapas específicas distribuídas pelos países segundo suas competências produtivas. Essa distribuição foi possibilitada, entre outros fatores, pela diminuição dos custos de transporte internacional, que levou a um aumento não apenas nos fluxos de comércio mundial, mas também na atividade turística internacional. O turismo, por sua vez, é uma atividade que necessita de diversos serviços, dentre eles os de hotelaria. As grandes empresas que prestam serviços hoteleiros também adotaram a estratégia de expansão internacional nos últimos anos, mas sua dinâmica difere de outras empresas de serviços em função da heterogeneidade do setor terciário. Visto isso, este trabalho tem o intuito de explorar a capacidade explicativa das teorias de internacionalização, bem como a possibilidade de adapta-las à dinâmica real do mercado, considerando as estratégias das redes hoteleiras internacionais no Brasil. Verifica-se que as teorias de internacionalização possuem poder explicativo limitado para a indústria hoteleira. Para responder tais questões, foram levantados dois objetivos: analisar as estratégias de entrada das redes internacionais de hotelaria no Brasil, e, posteriormente, estruturar um referencial analítico que compreenda as peculiaridades do segmento estudado. O trabalho, que utiliza uma abordagem qualitativa dentro de estudo de múltiplos casos, é iniciado com a caracterização e dimensionamento do setor de serviços e do segmento de hotelaria, por meio de revisão bibliográfica e levantamento das atividades. Os dados utilizados nesta pesquisa são levantados junto à Smith Travel Research (STR Global), que correspondem as 15 maiores redes de hotelaria com base em seus números de hotéis no Brasil e em seu tipo de operação/estratégia de entrada, numa amostra total de 1872 hotéis. Para o referencial de teorias e estratégias de internacionalização, é estruturada uma revisão bibliográfica em livros e artigos de periódicos, sintetizando seus pontos principais, tornando possível o esforço de análise qualitativa entre seus fundamentos e os dados levantados. / The number of studies concerning companies' internationalization has increased in the past years. This increase occurs largely due to the adequacy of theories that deal with the subject to the dynamics of the service sector, and these were originally designed to explain the foreign investment of industrial companies. Such phenomenon occurs due to the growth of the importance of the tertiary sector in world economy and, mainly, the incorporation of several services in all the productive chains of the industry. These production structures accompany the international division of labor, with specific stages distributed by countries according to their productive competencies. This distribution was made possible, among other factors, by the decrease in international transportation costs, which led to an increase not only in world trade flows, but also in international tourism activity. Tourism, in turn, is an activity that requires several services, such as hospitality. The large companies that provide hotel services have also adopted the strategy of international expansion in recent years, but their dynamics differs from other service companies due to heterogeneity of the tertiary sector. Thus, this work intends to explore the explanatory capacity of internationalization theories, as well as the possibility of adapting them to the real market dynamics, considering the strategies of international hotel chains in Brazil. It is verified that the internationalization theories have limited explanatory power for the hotel industry. In order to answer such questions, two objectives were raised: to analyze the entry strategies of international hotel chains in Brazil, and, later, to structure an analytical framework that comprehends the peculiarities of the studied segment. The work, which uses a qualitative approach within multiple cases study, is initiated with the characterization and dimensioning of the service sector and the hotel segment through bibliographic review and survey of activities. The data used in this research are collected from Smith Travel Research (STR Global), corresponding to the 15 largest hotel chains based on their hotel numbers and type of operation/entry strategy, with a total sample of 1872 hotels. For the internationalization theories and strategies referential, a literature review is structured based in books and articles, synthesizing its main elements, making possible the effort of qualitative analysis between its fundamentals and the collected data.
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Viagem ao redor do Atlântico : uma leitura comparada de Hotel Atlântico de João Gilberto Noll e Suzana AmaralYu, Jingfang January 2015 (has links)
Ce document vise à analyser le récit de l'écrivain João Gilberto Noll, Hotel Atlâtico (1989), et son adaptation cinématographique (2009) créée par la réalisatrice Suzana Amaral. L'étude comparative tient compte de l'hypothèse que le processus de traduction est, premièrement, une interprétation. Ainsi, la traduction du texte littéraire à travers le langage visuel est, en fait, une lecture critique de la réalisatrice, la quelle présente sa compréhension pour le livre. C'est à partir de ces hypothèses qu'on examinera les deux textes. Pendant l'étude, on approchera les choix faits par Amaral dans son processus de traduction intersémiotique, avec l'hypothèse que la réalisatrice situe la production littéraire de Noll dans son ensemble, en radicalisant les éléments présents dans le texte verbal. De cette manière, elle rompe radicalement avec les conventions de structure filmique traditionnelle, en situant son texte dans la conception de "traduction créative", élaborée par Haroldo de Campos. Ainsi, Suzana Amaral présente son interprétation du livre à travers sa propre création - le film Hotel Atlântico. / O presente trabalho pretende analisar a narrativa Hotel Atlântico (1989), de João Gilberto Noll, e sua adaptação cinematográfica (2009) realizada pela cineasta Suzana Amaral. O estudo comparativo leva em consideração a premissa de que o processo tradutório é primeiramente interpretação. Portanto, a cineasta, ao "transcriar" o texto literário por meio da linguagem visual, o que faz é leitura crítica do texto verbal, apresentando seu entendimento para o livro. É a partir desses pressupostos que serão analisados os dois textos em estudo. Na investigação, serão abordadas as escolhas feitas pela cineasta no seu processo de tradução intersemiótica, tendo a hipótese de que a diretora, ao considerar a produção literária de Noll como um todo, radicaliza os elementos presentes no texto verbal, rompendo radicalmente com as convenções da estrutura fílmica tradicional, inserindo, assim, seu texto no que Haroldo de Campos denomina como "tradução criativa". Dessa maneira, Suzana Amaral nos apresenta sua interpretação do livro através de seu Hotel Atlântico.
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Hotellrum och dess betydelse för varumärketRocafort, Sara, Tahiri, Granit January 2018 (has links)
Abstract Purpose and research question The purpose of the study is to clarify the role and significance of mind marketing in hotel rooms to strengthen the hotel brand. What does sense marketing mean today in hotel rooms? In what way can sense of mind in hotel rooms influence the brand identity? Method The essay is written in a qualitative research method with abductive elements. The empirical material consists of six semistructured interviews with eight respondents. Conclusion The study results show that the hotel room has an influence on the hotel brand. The hotel is an organization with several sectors and, in the experience of the guest, each sector is tasked with sending an emotional message. Sensory marketing is implemented in hotel rooms for an effective method used to convey a message and to create experiences. The hotel industry wants to offer a service that makes the guests happy and create positive memories. It is the clearest method of differentiating from other hotels which has an influence over the brand. Keywords Sensory marketing, Brand, Image, Identity, Service landscape, Hotel, Hotel room
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Viagem ao redor do Atlântico : uma leitura comparada de Hotel Atlântico de João Gilberto Noll e Suzana AmaralYu, Jingfang January 2015 (has links)
Ce document vise à analyser le récit de l'écrivain João Gilberto Noll, Hotel Atlâtico (1989), et son adaptation cinématographique (2009) créée par la réalisatrice Suzana Amaral. L'étude comparative tient compte de l'hypothèse que le processus de traduction est, premièrement, une interprétation. Ainsi, la traduction du texte littéraire à travers le langage visuel est, en fait, une lecture critique de la réalisatrice, la quelle présente sa compréhension pour le livre. C'est à partir de ces hypothèses qu'on examinera les deux textes. Pendant l'étude, on approchera les choix faits par Amaral dans son processus de traduction intersémiotique, avec l'hypothèse que la réalisatrice situe la production littéraire de Noll dans son ensemble, en radicalisant les éléments présents dans le texte verbal. De cette manière, elle rompe radicalement avec les conventions de structure filmique traditionnelle, en situant son texte dans la conception de "traduction créative", élaborée par Haroldo de Campos. Ainsi, Suzana Amaral présente son interprétation du livre à travers sa propre création - le film Hotel Atlântico. / O presente trabalho pretende analisar a narrativa Hotel Atlântico (1989), de João Gilberto Noll, e sua adaptação cinematográfica (2009) realizada pela cineasta Suzana Amaral. O estudo comparativo leva em consideração a premissa de que o processo tradutório é primeiramente interpretação. Portanto, a cineasta, ao "transcriar" o texto literário por meio da linguagem visual, o que faz é leitura crítica do texto verbal, apresentando seu entendimento para o livro. É a partir desses pressupostos que serão analisados os dois textos em estudo. Na investigação, serão abordadas as escolhas feitas pela cineasta no seu processo de tradução intersemiótica, tendo a hipótese de que a diretora, ao considerar a produção literária de Noll como um todo, radicaliza os elementos presentes no texto verbal, rompendo radicalmente com as convenções da estrutura fílmica tradicional, inserindo, assim, seu texto no que Haroldo de Campos denomina como "tradução criativa". Dessa maneira, Suzana Amaral nos apresenta sua interpretação do livro através de seu Hotel Atlântico.
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Relatório de estágio supervisionado no hotel savoy othon travel, Copacabana - RJSilva, Juliana 17 May 2016 (has links)
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TCC Juliana de Azevedo.pdf: 1975517 bytes, checksum: 78023843959b450003492289cc191703 (MD5) / Este trabalho de conclusão de curso visa compreender as atividades exercidas
durante a prática de estágio supervisionado (obrigatório) em recepção, vivenciada
no Hotel Savoy Othon Travel – Copacabana-RJ, da rede de Hotéis Othon, no
período de Agosto de 2013 até Março de 2014. Assim, o autor faz uma breve
apresentação da rede e da estrutura física e organizacional do hotel onde o estágio
ocorreu. Também são caracterizados os conceitos do estágio empregando-os ao
curso e ao estágio em recepção hoteleira. A partir da vivência pessoal do autor,
foram analisados os elementos práticos do estágio, como o manuseio do programa
utilizado pelo hotel e as funções exercidas pelo recepcionista. Após analisar a
estrutura teórica e prática chegou-se a conclusão de que o estágio em recepção,
além de ser a porta de entrada para o profissional hoteleiro (pela grande oferta de
vagas), também é um importante setor que colabora na formação do aluno, uma vez
que a recepção é um dos setores que está em constante contato com os demais
setores. Dessa forma na formação de futuros gestores, a prática na recepção
permite uma visão operacional mais ampla do hotel, como um todo. / This document aims to understand the duties made by the author through the
mandatory supervised practice at reception of Savoy Othon Travel (Copacabana -
RJ) which is a branch of Othon Hotels chain, from August 2013 to March 2014.
Accordingly, the author makes a brief presentation of the hotels chain and the
structure of the hotel where the internship was done, reporting the physical and
hierarchical structures of the hotel. This document approaches to concepts of
internship and how they were employed to the course and to the internship as well.
From personal experience of the author, the practical elements of the internship,
such as the handling of the program used by the hotel and the duties performed by
the receptionist were analyzed. After analyzing the theoretical and practical structure
reached the conclusion that the internship in reception, in addition to being the
gateway to the hotelier professional into the labor market (by the great number of
vacancies), is also an important sector that contributes to formation of the student,
since the reception is one of the sectors that are in constant contact with the other
sectors. Therefore, in the formation of future managers the practice at reception
allows a wider operational view of the hotel as a whole.
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Prognoser för hotellmarknaden i Stockholm / Forecasts Concerning the Hotel Market in StockholmMattsson, Linn, Wass, Martin January 2016 (has links)
Bakgrund: Denna uppsats riktar in sig på hotell i Stockholm och all data som anges gäller för staden som helhet. Inom Hotellbranschen finns det tre vedertagna nyckeltal som kan sägas beskriva hur det går ekonomiskt för ett hotell. Då hotellen till stor del styrs efter dessa tre nyckeltal så är det av stort intresse för varje enskilt hotell att jämföra sina egna värden med marknadens värden på dessa nyckeltal. Om prognoser utförs på dessa nyckeltal borde det vara av stort intresse för varje hotell att ta del av dessa prognoser för att på så vis kunna reglera prissättningen utefter hur marknaden kommer att se ut den närmaste tiden. Syfte: Ta fram modeller som utifrån framtida evenemang och framtida bokningsläge prognostiserar hotellmarknadens Beläggning och Rumsintäkter. Utifrån dessa prognoser beräknas nyckeltalen Beläggning, Snittpris och intäkt per disponibelt rum på dagsnivå ett år fram i tiden, det vill säga för år 2016. Metod: Då datamaterialet består av tidsserier med tillhörande förklarande variabler används en typ av dynamisk regressionsmodell. Dessa modeller är utformade för att hantera tidsseriedata med tillhörande förklarande variabler. Modellen som används kallas för regression med ARMA-fel och syftar till att en multipel regression anpassas och en lämplig ARMA-modell tas fram för att förklara feltermerna. På så vis modelleras även autokorrelationen som annars finns kvar i feltermerna. Resultat: Modellen för Beläggningen består av fyra förklarande variabler och feltermerna antas följa en AR-struktur. Rumsintäkterna prognostiseras med en modell med sju förklarande variabler, även för denna modell antas feltermerna följa en AR-struktur. Det tycks också finnas en säsong i data vilken också modelleras i form av en AR-struktur för de båda modellerna. Prognosen för nyckeltalen ser till största del ut att följa föregående års mönster, och evenemangs-typen Event ger oftast en hög skattning i förhållande till månaden. Evenemangstypen Högtid tycks ge en negativ effekt och Bokningsläget har en positiv effekt för båda modellerna. Slutsats: Modellerna anses välanpassade men det krävs mer bearbetning på de förklarande variablerna där till exempel event bör grupperas in beroende på vad för slags event det är. För att prognostisera rumsintäkter bör en variabel som förklara hotellens prisjusteringar modelleras. / Background: This thesis targets hotels in Stockholm with aggregated data for the city. In the hotel market there’s three key indicators of particular interest and can be said describes how the market goes. Because of how much influence these key indicator have on the hotels it’s in great interest for the hotels to compare themselves with the market values. If these key indicators where forecasted it would perhaps be of great interest for the hotels to buy these forecasts to be able to control the room pricing in advance. Purpose: Develop forecasting models due to future event and bookings with occupancy and room revenue as response variables. The key indicators revenue per available rooms and average price is then calculated through these forecasts for the year 2016. Method: Since data consist of response variables (called output series) where the future values this series depends on past values of this series and a multiple set of related time series and external events (called input series) a dynamic regression called “regression with ARMA errors” where used. The method implies that you suit a multiple regression where the error terms are modelled with an appropriate ARMA model. Results: The model for occupancy consist of four dependent variables and the model for the room revenue contain seven dependent variables. The error terms for these models include an autoregressive model with both seasonal and non-seasonal orders. The forecast for the key indicators seems to follow the same pattern as previous years, where the event type Event more often than not gives a high estimate in relation to the current month. The event type Holiday seems to have a negative impact and bookings has a small positive effect for both models. Conclusions: The models seems to fit data well but the input series needs more processing where the variable event seems to need some subgrouping. To forecast the room revenue is seems like a variable explaining price changes need to be constructed.
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