Background: This study investigates the role of gut feelings in early-stage venture investments, particularly in environments characterized by high uncertainty. By examining how both inexperienced and experienced investors utilize intuition, the research aims to uncover the cognitive and emotional foundations that influence investment decisions. Purpose: The research aims to understand how gut feelings impact investment decisions across different levels of investor experience. It compares the strategies of seasoned investors with those of novices, providing insights into how intuition and analytical reasoning are integrated. The objective is to offer practical guidance for investors on effectively combining gut feelings with analytical methods to navigate uncertain investment landscapes. Method: A multi-method qualitative approach was employed, combining semi-structured interviews and think-aloud protocols to capture real-time decision-making processes. Data were gathered from 11 investors, resulting in 14 hours of verbal protocols, which were subsequently analyzed using protocol analysis. A hypothetical investment scenario involving a fictional company, EcoPower Innovations, was used to elicit detailed responses from participants. Conclusion: The study finds significant differences in how gut feelings influence investment decisions based on the level of investor experience. Experienced investors skillfully blend intuition with data analysis, leveraging their expertise to manage uncertainty more effectively. In contrast, inexperienced investors tend to rely more on emotional impulses, demonstrating less integration of intuitive judgment with analytical reasoning. These findings highlight the importance of investor education in promoting the balanced use of gut feelings and analytical techniques, thereby improving decision-making in uncertain environments. Additionally, the research offers valuable insights for entrepreneurs on tailoring their approaches to potential investors based on their level of experience and expertise.

In this paper, market participants’ tendency to form investor herds in the stocks listed on Nasdaq First North Growth Market of Sweden is examined for the period from 2018 to 2023. The models used in this study to detect herd behavior in stocks consist of two measures of dispersions, Cross-Sectional Standard Deviation of returns (CSSD) and Cross-Sectional Absolute Deviation of returns (CSAD), which were proposed by Christie and Huang (1995) and Chang, et al. (2000), respectively. An equally-weighted index consisting of all of the stocks that have traded on this market during the period is created and a quantitative analysis is conducted. Evidence showed absence of herd behavior when using both models, as well as when accounting for robustness tests consisting of small, mid-and large cap portfolios. Our results also support the prediction of rational asset pricing models, which suggest that stock return dispersions around the market returns increase during periods of market stress.

It is generally acknowledged that the share price of listed companies is not usually a true reflection of the value imbedded in the said companies. The main purpose of this study is to explore the correlation between selected performance measurement tools, namely Return on Equity (ROE) and Economic Value Added (EVA®), and the share price of companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. The study is a quantitative one as it uses data extracted from McGregor BFA database to investigate the relationship between the variables studied. Correlation and linear regression analyses were used in determining such relationships. This study found that there is a synergy in using ROE and EVA® as performance measurement tools and that their interaction explains 8.06% of the movement in the share price of listed companies, all things being equal. Hence it is recommended to identify and study possible synergies between other performance measurement tools. / Management Accounting / M. Phil. (Accounting Sciences)

In South Africa, less than 10% of individuals are financially independent after retirement, with an increasing number becoming dependent on social grants from government – hence the importance of analysing the asset composition of high net worth individuals who have achieved financial independence. To achieve the aim of this study, it was first necessary to define net worth and to develop a theoretical framework of the assets and liabilities included in the measurement of an individual’s net worth and how these assets and liabilities should be valued. A definition of high net worth individuals was then formulated. Secondly, the factors influencing the asset composition of high net worth individuals, as well as selected demographic factors that influence net worth, were investigated. Finally, following a quantitative approach, data collected from the liquidation and distribution accounts of deceased individuals were analysed according to the developed framework. The results of this study suggest that are indeed differences in the contribution of the different asset types when measured using the mean, relative contribution and importance of the asset class in comparison with total assets. Further analysis revealed that the richest individuals included in the survey invested more in shares than the other groups for whom immovable property was the primary asset. Based on the analysis of selected demographic factors, the findings indicated that for many of the dependent variables, the asset used most by respondents in that group was not the same asset that made the highest contribution to the net worth of the individuals in the group. / Business Management / M. Com. (Accounting)

本研究探討長期投資人之最適資產配置問題，並著重於通貨膨脹風險之分析。第一部份討論確定提撥退休金制度下，機構投資人或高所得自然人如何擬定投資策略規避通貨膨脹風險，達到極大化期末財富效用期望值。此研究擴展Battocchio與Menoncin (2004)所建構資產模型，不僅探討市場風險，亦考量通貨膨脹不確定性與基金費用誘因、下方風險保護兩機制，研究對資產配置行為之影響，並依動態規劃方法求得投資策略公式解。第二部份則強調下方風險之重要性，檢視在最低保證收益下，長期投資人跨期資產配置之財富管理議題，並回顧Deelstra et al.(2003)之模型架構，依平賭方法求得投資策略公式解，研究結果顯示基金投資策略可表示為最適CRRA(γ,T)型態共同基金與最低收益避險之組合。另一方面，如何估計通貨膨脹風險亦為本文強調之重點。Campbell和Viceira (2001)首次納入通貨膨脹風險並探討跨期投資議題，結論市場缺乏通貨膨脹連動投資標的時，投資人將減碼長期債持有比例。Brennan和Xia (2002)假設通貨膨脹率服從Ornstein-Uhlenbeck過程，結論投資人之避險需求隨持有債券到期日與投資期限改變。但以上結論未將通貨膨脹學習機制納入模型，因此，在第三部份提出依學習機制修正之投資策略可顯著增加財富效用，並分析在不同參數設定下，學習機制對於期末財富效用之影響。 / In this study, we study three essays of asset allocation problem for long term investors, which means that in this discourse we emphasis the importance of inflation risk. In the first topic, we derive the dynamic optimal investment strategy of the defined contribution pension schemes which include two mechanisms of partial floor protection and incentive fees and their benchmarks. We find investors should hold high proportion of stock index fund to hedge the inflation risk; moreover, the ratio of incentive fees to the setting of benchmark will change the optimal investment trend of underlying assets. In the second topic, we introduce the optimal investment portfolio with minimum guarantees and show that the fund manager should adjust the optimal weights of underlying assets with the ratio of the guarantee fund's value to the value of fund. Finally, this work focuses on how to precisely predict the dynamics of inflation rate. We apply learning method to adjust the prediction of inflation process and we use numerical analysis to study the effect of learning mechanism under different parameter setting.

"Mémoire présenté à la Faculté des études supérieures en vue de l'obtention du grade de LL.M. Droit Dans le cadre du programme de Maîtrise en droit(LL.M.) 2-325-1-0 en option recherche et droit des affaires" / Avec le début du processus de négociation entourant la création d'une éventuelle Zone de libre-échange des Amériques, il est permis de se demander si l'entente, prévue pour 2005, aura un impact significatif sur l'évolution des normes réglementant les investissements directs étrangers (IDE). À cet égard, à l'échelle internationale, l'évolution des normes sur les IDE est caractérisée par deux grandes phases. Une première phase concerne l'évolution des règles et principes destinés respectivement à sécuriser et garantir les investissements internationaux. Cette phase pourrait et sera probablement consolidée juridiquement avec la conclusion prochaine de la ZLÉA. Conséquence de l'effacement progressif des doctrines politiques réfractaires ou dissuasives à l'IDE, particulièrement vrai depuis la fin de la guerre froide, ces principes sont largement connus des juristes: traitement national, traitement juste et équitable, traitement de la nation la plus favorisée, règles en matière d'expropriation et de nationalisation, etc. La seconde phase concerne, elle, les règles destinées à libéraliser le cadre juridique entourant les opérations d'investissements. i.e. les règles visant notamment à assurer une libre admission des IDE sur le territoire de l'État hôte de l'investissement et une plus grande liberté de gestion en faveur de l'investisseur étranger. Cela dit, contrairement aux règles destinées à sécuriser les IDE, il n'y a pas de consensus politique suffisamment important dans les Amériques, enfin selon nous, pour voir ces principes se cristalliser de manière extensive dans un accord pan-américain. Le présent mémoire examinera les règles juridiques appartenant à ces deux phases d'évolution. Celles-ci feront plus précisément l'objet du second chapitre de notre mémoire. Le premier chapitre, quant à lui, portera sur l'évolution et la réaction de "la société internationale face à ce phénomène de multinationalisation des entreprises, pour ensuite porter sur l'évolution conceptuelle des notions d'investissements et d'investisseurs internationaux. En sus des trois versions de l'avant-projet de chapitre sur les investissements rendues publiques sur le site officiel de la ZLÉA, les ententes bilatérales et sous-régionales occuperont aussi une place privilégiée dans nos analyses. Alors qu'historiquement les premières 1n11:latlves d'intégration économique (en Amérique latine et centrale principalement) étaient marquées par l'idéologie du développement et celle du Nouvel ordre économique international (NOEI), la ZLÉA, comme processus d'intégration, est guidée elle au premier chef par l'idéologie libérale, sinon ultralibérale. Dans les Amériques, compte tenu des différences tangibles de développement des économies nationales des 34 États invités à négocier, le consensus de Washington, présent en 1994, semble s'effriter et annonce la conclusion prochaine d'une entente minimaliste. Cela affecterait dans une même proportion la question des IDE auquel cas il faudra admettre que la ZLÉA ne révolutionnera pas le cadre juridique dans lequel se font les opérations d'investissement. / With the beginning of the negotiating process that should be leading to the establishment of the Free Trade Area of the Americas for 2005, it's interesting to take a look at the possible evolution of the roles and principles related to Foreign Direct investments regulation in the Americas. On the international level, there's two basics categories of norms. The ftrst one, are essentiaily design to protect and guarantee the investor and his investment. The eventual conclusion of FTAA could consolidate, at the hemisphere level, such category of roles and principles. Consequently to the end of cold war and the alignment of many country, but also many developing countries, in regard of the liberalism doctrine, the nature of these roles and principles are weil know by lawyers and professors in north-America: national treatment, fair and equitable treatment, most-favoured-nation treatment, roles concerning expropriation and nationalization, etc.. The second one, concern the roles and principles design to liberated the copusjuns afferent to FDI : for example, the roles and principles concerning transfer clause or performances requirements. That said, contrary to the ftrst category, there's no consensus over theses roles and principles. The absence of such consensus will probably influence the content of the agreement in a way that will be unsatisfted either for export-developing countries, such as the Canada and the United States, or developing countries. The present paper will examine roles and principles design for both protection and liberalization of FDI regulations. Indeed, the second chapter will entirely be treating of these matters. The ftrst chapter will instead be treating about the "transnationalization" of the private ftrm and the reaction of the international community regarding this phenomenon. The first chapter of our paper will also be the occasion to look at the conceptual evolution of both notions of "investor" and "investment" in regards of the FDI regime developed in the FTAA draft. On that matter, a special attention will be accorded to the FTTA process but also to bilateral and regional agreements signed over the last 15 years between members of the FTAA negotiating process. Historicaily and ideologicaily, the FTAA is link with the recent NAFTA process. There is no doubt about it. The integration process in the Americas is far from been recent in Latin America, with the difference that this last process was mostly inspired by the ideology of "development" and the project of NIEO. The FTAA process, on the other hand, is clearly guide by the liberalism ideology which not always take into account the particularize needs of developing countries. When the FTAA process begin, there was a consensus, among leaders, over the idea that free-trade, as weil as liberal FDI regulations, will beneftt to developing countries and ftt their economic and social aspirations. Since then, this consensus, the so-called "Washington consensus", has been lost and that will, necessarily, have some effects on the evolution of the roles and principles related to FDI regulation in the Americas.

Les imperfections des marchés financiers et l'incomplétude des contrats financiers compliquent la conclusion d'ententes entre les firmes et les parties prenantes. Plusieurs solutions sont proposées pour réduire ces problèmes et faciliter la conclusion des contrats financiers. Les contrats étant enveloppés par un cadre institutionnel, ils en sont imprégnés et affectés. Les institutions sont donc une des solutions aux imperfections des marchés et à l'incomplétude des contrats. Les résultats de notre étude le prouvent clairement. Cette étude montre que le niveau de développement et la structure du système financier (en particulier la part relative des financements bancaires et de marché), les conditions de régulation du système bancaire (les formes et l’étendue de la supervision) et certaines caractéristiques des systèmes juridiques (la protection des créditeurs), ont un effet significatif sur les contraintes d'investissement. Il apparaît que la bonne qualité des institutions facilite l'accès aux financements et qu'elle renforce les garanties exigées pour l'octroi de la dette. De fait, la piètre qualité des institutions d’un pays constitue une entrave à l'accès au financement par le secteur privé. / The imperfections of financial markets and the incompleteness of financial contracts cause commitments between firms and stakeholders to become more complex. Several solutions are suggested in order to reduce such problems and to facilitate the conclusion of financial contracts. Contracts evolve within an institutional structure, an environment by which they are conditioned. Institutions are one of many solutions to market imperfections and to contract incompleteness. Results bring out relevant effects of the financial system’s development and structure (particularly the amount of banking over market financing), banking regulation (the supervisory methods and their extent) and some characteristics of the legal systems (such as creditor protection) on investment constraints. It appears that sound and healthy institutions facilitate access to funding and strengthen the collateral required to secure bank financing. Consequently, poor quality of a country’s institutions hinders access to financing by the private sector.

Corporate governance practice differs regionally and nationally, depending on how each legal environment protects minority investors, capital markets and company ownership structure. Governance can also change spectacularly in regions or countries with comparatively high levels of institutional investment. The notion of institutional investors' activism is increasingly important in developed markets as the ideal corporate governance mechanism to monitor corporate managers and overcome agency problems arising from dispersed corporate ownership in modern companies. These institutions can work together on an improved corporate governance framework more effectively than individual investors, monitoring corporate controllers of listed companies in emerging and developing markets, using their influence more vigorously and in ways more fitting to a concentrated ownership environment such as that in Saudi Arabia. Consequently, the role of institutional investors in emerging and developing markets will depend strongly on institutional investors' activism and the arrangements determined and undertaken by the corporate governance regulatory framework in these markets. In considering the influential role of institutional investors to improve corporate governance practice, a high level of minority shareholder protection thus remains an indicator of good corporate governance and regulatory pressure of rights and incentives, which are necessary to empower non-controlling shareholders in these concentrated ownership markets to exert a strong activist influence in monitoring corporate activities, thus improving the corporate governance practices of investee companies. In this context, this thesis contends that in Saudi Arabia in particular, shareholder involvement in corporate governance is inadequate, as a result of a variety of economic and regulatory obstacles. It goes on to identify what improvements are necessary and where, to ensure a sound framework for effective institutional investor activism and to improve the level of minority shareholder protection. It also cautions Saudi legislators against erecting hurdles to the future engagement of Saudi and foreign institutional investors in monitoring corporate activities which may affect the conditions for access, allocation and monitoring of equity, which is so important for value creation and sustainable economic growth. The main benefit to be derived from this research is that it facilitates a fuller understanding of the Saudi approach to corporate governance, the corporate ownership environment and trends in the capital market. The analysis also deepens knowledge of corporate governance regimes, including the role of institutional investors, and of their characteristics and investment behaviours. In short, it considers whether institutional investors are willing or have been encouraged to use their power to engage in the companies in which they invest and whether they are qualified to solve the agency problem.

Market Liquidity, Active Investment, and Markets for Information. This paper studies a financial market in which investors choose among investment strategies that exploit information about different fundamentals. On the one hand, the presence of other informed investors generates illiquidity. On the other hand, investors who use different strategies can serve as quasi-noise traders for each other, thereby also supplying each other with liquidity. Thus, investment strategies can be substitutes or complements. Such externalities in information acquisition have effects on investor herding, comovement in prices and liquidity across assets, trade volume, and the informational role of prices. They further affect the relationship between financial markets and information markets. Information market competition fosters investor diversity, whereas monopoly power promotes investor herding. Also, in order to benefit from quasi-noise trading, a financial institution may engage in both proprietary trading and information sales. Security-Voting Structure and Bidder Screening. This paper shows that non-voting shares can promote takeovers. When the bidder has private information, shareholders may refuse to tender because they suspect to sell at an ex-post unfavourable price. The ensuing friction in the sale of cash flow rights can prevent an efficient sale of control. Separating cash flow and voting rights mitigates this externality, thereby facilitating takeovers. In fact, the fraction of non-voting shares can be used to discriminate between efficient and inefficient bidders. The optimal fraction decreases with managerial ability, implying an inverse relationship between firm value and non-voting shares. As non-voting shares increase control contestability, share reunification programs entrench managers of widely held firms, whereas dual-class recapitalizations can increase shareholder wealth. Signaling in Tender Offer Games. This paper examines whether a bidder can use the terms of the tender offer to signal the post-takeover security benefits to the shareholders of a widely held target firm. As atomistic shareholders extract all the gains in security benefits, signaling equilibria are subject to a constraint that is absent from bilateral trade models. The buyer (bidder) must enjoy gains from trade that are excluded from bargaining (private benefits), but can nonetheless be relinquished and enable shareholders to draw inference about the security benefits. Restricted bids and cash-equity offers do not satisfy these requirements. Dilution, debt financing, probabilistic takeover outcomes and toeholds are all viable signals because they make bidder gains depend on the security benefits in a predictable manner. In all the signaling equilibria, lower-valued types must forgo a larger fraction of their private benefits and these signaling costs prevent some takeovers. When the bidder has additional private information about the private benefits as in the case of two-dimensional bidder types, fully revealing equilibria cease to exist. This does not hold once bidders can offer not only cash or equity but also (more) elaborate contingent claims. Offers which include options avoid inefficiencies and implement the symmetric information outcome. Goldrush Dynamics of Private Equity. This paper presents a simple dynamic model of entry and exit in a private equity market with heterogeneous private equity firms, a depletable stock of target companies, and rational learning about investment profitability. The predictions of the model match a number of stylized facts: Aggregate fund activity follows waves with endogenous transitions from boom to bust. Supply and demand in the private equity market are inelastic, and the supply comoves with investment valuations. High industry performance precedes high entry, which in turn precedes low industry performance. There are persistent differences in fund performance across private equity firms, first-time funds underperform the industry, and first-time funds raised in booms are unlikely to be succeeded by a follow-on fund. Fund performance and fund size are positively correlated across firms, but negatively correlated across consecutive funds of a private equity firm. Finally, booms can make ”too much capital chase too few deals.” Reputable Friends as Watchdogs: Social Ties and Governance. To examine how governance is affected when a designated supervisor befriends the person to be supervised, this paper embeds a delegated monitoring problem in a social structure: the supervisor and the agent are friends, and the supervisor desires to be socially recognized for having integrity. Strengthening the friendship weakens the supervisor’s monitoring incentives, forging an alliance against the principal (bonding). But the agent also grows more reluctant to put the supervisor’s perceived integrity at risk, thus becoming more aligned with the principal (bridging). If the supervisor’s desire for social recognition is strong, the principal’s preferences regarding the supervisor-agent friendship are bipolar. Weak friendship makes the supervisor monitor intensively to save face. Strong friendship leads the supervisor to abandon monitoring but the agent to behave well in order to protect the supervisor from losing face. The strength of friendship necessary for the latter outcome decreases in the supervisor’s desire for esteem; that is, image concerns leverage the bridging effect of friendship. This suggests that overlapping personal and professional ties can enhance delegated governance in cultures or contexts where social recognition is important, and provides a novel perspective on issues related to crony capitalism, corporate governance, and organizational culture. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2009 Sammanfattning jämte 5 uppsatser

近來非傳統(Non-banks)金融機構(非銀行機構)，不論在聯合貸款市場或是在一般貸款市場所參與的程度愈來愈多，所承作的借款金額也逐年增加。這樣的趨勢尤其以歐美市場更為明顯。而一般文獻對於非銀行機構在聯合貸款市場與傳統金融機構在貸款條件差異的相關研究較少，因此本文研究非銀行機構利用1995至2007年美國企業在聯合貸款市場的資料，透過結合「Thomson Reuters LPC’s Dealscan」以及「Compustat」資料庫，分析包括融資公司(Finance Company)、投資銀行(Investment Bank)、保險公司(Insurance Company)、機構投資者(Institutional Investors) 的聯貸條件，實證結果發現非銀行機構參與的聯貸案件，通常都會要求較高的借款利率，其中又以保險公司所要求的借款利率為最高，可見非銀行機構是屬於追求較高風險的中介機構，但是本文也發現非銀行機構卻也會承作貸款期間較長的契約。 本文同時探討2000年美國通過金融服務業現代化法案是否對於非銀行機構造成影響，實證結果發現母公司為金融控股公司的非銀行機構在通過金融服務業現代化法案後，會放款給較高風險的公司，說明了在允許跨業經營下，隸屬金控的非銀行機構子公司承做風險較高的貸款業務非銀行機構。 / Non-bank institutions have participated in the commercial lending market and syndication market in recent years, especially in the U.S market. However, the literature addressing this issue is sparse. This paper aims to analyze the effects of participation by Non-bank lenders in the syndicated loan markets.We examine the loan contracts which started from 1995 to 2007, and use 「Thomson Reuters LPC’s Dealscan」and 「Compustat」datasets to analyze the lending behavior of Non-banks. Empirical results show that when the Non-banks participate in the loan market, they tend to charge higher credit spreads. However, when Non-banks participate in the facility, they also provide longer-maturity loans. Furthermore, this research also examines the effect of Financial Services Modernization Act‘s influence on lending behavior. The results show that after the Act was put into force, non-banks that are associated with Financial Holding Company tend to be more risk-taking. We find that Financial Holding Company would transfer the more risky operation into non-bank subsidiaries after they are allowed to cross sell their products.