En utmaning som finns i urbana miljöer är att få till och nyttja ett nätverk med fungerande returlogistik för att uppnå mål om hållbarhet. Följande arbete undersöker returlogistiken i urbana miljöer, framför allt hur avfallshanteringen ser ut, hur den tas till hänsyn vid planering av stadsutveckling samt vilka förbättringsmöjligheter som finns. Den urbana miljön som valts att undersökas är Malmö stad eftersom den är i en snabb utvecklingsprocess. Arbetet bygger på en litteraturstudie som sedan jämförts mot empiriskt material som samlats in genom intervjuer och plandokument. Variablerna som tagits i beaktning är returlogistik, citylogistik, avfallshantering och stadsplanering för att besvara syftet som framställts. Genom att jämföra teorin mot empirin drogs slutsatsen att det krävs fortsatt utvecklingsarbete men även högre prioritet på att optimera urban logistik och därmed avfallshanteringen. Urban logistiks största utmaning är kampen om kvadratmetrarna eftersom många olika aktörer är aktiva på en kompakt yta. Möjligheter som finns för framtida förbättringar är att ge returlogistiken mer uppmärksamhet och framför allt resurser. / A challenge that exists in urban environments is to create and use a network with functioning reverse logistics to achieve sustainability goals. The following essay looks into reverse logistics in urban environments, especially waste management, how it is taken into consideration when developing urban areas and what improvement opportunities exist. The urban environment chosen to be explored is the city of Malmö because it is in a rapid development process. The essay is based on a literature review which is then compared against empirical material collected through interviews and planning documents. The variables taken into account are reversed logistics, city logistics, waste management and urban planning to answer the purpose presented. By comparing the theories with the empirical material, it was concluded that continued development work is required but also a higher priority to optimize urban logistics and waste management. Urban logistics' biggest challenge is the fight for square meters because of the many different corporations are active on a compact surface. Possibilities that exist for future improvements are to give reverse logistics more attention and, above all, resources.

M.Sc. (Statistics)

由於財務報表舞弊往往足以震撼投資大眾，造成資本市場重大損失，各國監管單位無不盡力降低此事件之爆發，以維護資本市場秩序、保障投資人，是以本研究欲瞭解影響中國大陸上市公司舞弊之因素為何，以及如何建立舞弊預測模型提供財務報表使用者作為參考之用。本文利用2007年至2014年受懲罰之上市公司為研究對象，採Logistic迴歸進行實證分析，結果顯示裁決性收入與Z"-Score對於財務報表舞弊無顯著相關，相反的獨立董事比例、是否具ST壓力、存貨週轉率、應收帳款週轉率、主營業務利潤率與財務報表舞弊具顯著關係，另外利用迴歸結果中顯著變數建立財務報表舞弊模型，發現整體正確率為53.31％。 / Due to the severe impacts caused by fraudulent financial reporting, securities regulatory commissions in most countries put much emphasis on maintaining the order of the capital markets and protecting the investors’ interests. In order to realize the factors of financial statement fraud, especially for China listed companies, and build the detecting model for the financial statements users, I select some listed companies punished by the government during the period 2007-2014 as the samples in this dissertation. Then, I use logistic regression model to test which variables are significant to fraudulent financial reporting, and the results show that the discretionary revenue and Z"-Score do not have impact on it. On the contrary, the percentage of independent directors, pressure from avoiding being “ST”, inventory turnover, accounts receivable turnover, and percentage of income from main operation are significantly relevant to fraudulent financial reporting. Moreover, when including these significant variables in the detecting model, the accuracy of the model can up to 53.31 percent.

過去三、四十年來世界各地發生金融危機的頻率較從前高出許多，探究原因後可以發現，與各國陸續開放金融自由化以及國際金融市場快速成長有極大的關係。除此之外，在各國中，金融危機的發生通常具備一些共同特徵，諸如危機發生時會導致資金外流、匯率大幅貶值、股市重挫、產出減少、進出口減少…等影響。因此，面對這一波次級房貸風暴，本研究也即將檢視美國在總體經濟數據上各方面的表現，希望能利用1970年以來已開發國家和開發中國家歷年來所發生的貨幣、銀行危機下所代表的各種總體經濟數據，經過轉化整理後，透過Logistic迴歸模型建立一個迴歸方程式，以了解金融危機的發生與實質匯率、進出口…等其他解釋變數之間的關聯，並利用此模型探測現階段次級房貸風暴對美國可能引發金融危機的機率值，以探討其合理性。 / We find that the frequencies of the financial crises are higher for the past forty years in the world. It is due to the financial liberalization and international financial markets which grow rapidly. Besides, financial crises usually company with some common characteristics such as capital outflow, the depreciation of the foreign exchange, the shock of the stock market, the decreasing of the production and so on. Therefore, in order to understand this financial crisis of the subprime mortgage, this thesis surveys the economic data of developed countries and developing countries from 1970s and figures out the performances of these countries under balance-of -payments crises or banking crisis. We use the logistic regression model and transform the data to construct a regression model. After understanding the relationship between the explaining variables, we use this model to predict the probability of possible financial crisis in U.S. under the subprime mortgage crisis and then discuss the rationality of those predicted values.

M.Sc. (Statistics)

Approved for public release; distribution in unlimited. / In this thesis we develop a procedure for detecting erroneous payments in the Defense Finance Accounting Service, Internal Review's (DFAS IR) Knowledge Base Of Erroneous Payments (KBOEP), with the use of supervised (Logistic Regression) and unsupervised (Classification and Regression Trees (C & RT)) modeling algorithms. S-Plus software was used to construct a supervised model of vendor payment data using Logistic Regression, along with the Hosmer-Lemeshow Test, for testing the predictive ability of the model. The Clementine Data Mining software was used to construct both supervised and unsupervised model of vendor payment data using Logistic Regression and C & RT algorithms. The Logistic Regression algorithm, in Clementine, generated a model with predictive probabilities, which were compared against the C & RT algorithm. In addition to comparing the predictive probabilities, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were generated for both models to determine which model provided the best results for a Coincidence Matrix's True Positive, True Negative, False Positive and False Negative Fractions. The best modeling technique was C & RT and was given to DFAS IR to assist in reducing the manual record selection process currently being used. A recommended ruleset was provided, along with a detailed explanation of the algorithm selection process. / Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy

Submitted by William Justo Figueiro (williamjf) on 2015-07-10T22:43:09Z No. of bitstreams: 1 42b.pdf: 11938841 bytes, checksum: 548f5c4ae8b13931af52bc417ff2da4f (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-07-10T22:43:09Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 42b.pdf: 11938841 bytes, checksum: 548f5c4ae8b13931af52bc417ff2da4f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012 / Nenhuma / O objetivo desta dissertação de mestrado é estudar um projeto de coprocessamento de resíduos, e desenvolver um meio de torná-lo sustentável economicamente, à luz das teorias sobre logística reversa. Este projeto traz consigo resultados que vão além da área financeira, ao utilizar, da melhor forma, as cadeias logísticas já existentes na região, reduzindo, assim, o seu impacto na natureza. Uma vez que este projeto foi identificado ainda na sua fase de desenvolvimento, o método de pesquisa utilizado foi a pesquisa-ação. Neste tipo de método, usam-se as teorias existentes para planejar as intervenções de campo, ao mesmo tempo que se aproveitam os resultados para gerar avanços teóricos. Os objetivos específicos deste trabalho buscam estudar, primeiramente, as empresas fornecedoras de resíduos, analisando as suas localizações, bem como os tipos de produtos disponibilizados. A partir daí, ver o melhor lugar para instalar a planta produtora de mistura (blend), levando em consideração as restrições ambientais, os custos envolvidos e a oferta de modais de transporte, e por fim, analisar as empresas cimenteiras consumidoras de tal mistura. Os resultados mais importantes estão relacionados à mudança de localização da planta de coprocessamento, ao processo logístico de coleta dos resíduos bem como do produto final e o desenvolvimento de uma embalagem para o seu transporte. As implicações finais são ambientais, financeiras e estratégicas. Este projeto viabiliza o uso de uma parte significativa de resíduos que antes teriam como destino, na melhor das opções, os aterros sanitários da região, e agora passam ser uteis como combustíveis em uma nova cadeia de produção. Já os resultados econômicos atingiram as duas principais empresas estudas. Para a primeira, houve uma redução de 27% no custo logístico dos produtos produzidos. Já para a segunda, 8% no custo de combustível utilizado em fornos. Por fim, as estratégicas garantem, para a unidade de blendagem, um diferencial perante possíveis novos entrantes no mercado. Para garantir tudo isso, esta pesquisa passa pelos conceitos de logística e logística reversa, fazendo um apanhado sobre a produção de cimento e relatando os combustíveis utilizados nestas plantas, com as suas futuras opções de substituição, uma vez que este é um tipo de indústria altamente demandante de energia e calor. Finalmente, o caso analisado é a primeira planta de coprocessamento do Rio Grande do Sul que fará uso de diversos tipos de resíduos na confecção de um combustível alternativo para fornos de clinquer. / This dissertation aims to study a waste co-processing, and develop a way to make it economically sustainable within the logistic and reverse logistics theory. This brings together results that go beyond the financial area, when the logistics chains in the region are used at best in order to reduce the impact on the environment. Once this research project has already been identified in its development phase, the method of research is action-research. In this type of method, they use existing theories to plan interventions in the field, while the results take advantage to generate theorist advancements. The specific aims of this paper target the study, firstly, of the waste suppliers, analyzing their locations as well as the kinds of available products. From this point of view, we can see the best place to install the production blend plant, taking into consideration the environmental restrictions, the costs and the offering of different types of transport, and finally it analyzes the cement consumer companies of such blend. The most important results are related to the changing of the co-processing plant location, the logistic process of waste collection as well as the final product and the development of a kind of suitable wrapping for its transport. The final consequences are environmental, financial and strategic. This project enables the use of a significant portion of waste that would previously have as destination, at best, the region's landfills, and are now being useful as fuels in a new production chain. Since the economic results achieved two major companies studied. For the first, there was a 27% reduction in logistics costs of products produced. As for the second, 8% of the cost of fuel. Finally, the strategic guarantee, for the blending unit, a differential to possible new entrants in the market. So, this study analyses the concepts on logistics and reverse-logistics, making an overview on the cement production and the different kinds of fuel used in these plants, with its future replacement options - once this is a type of industry that demands high amounts of energy and heating. Finally, the case study talks about the first co-processing plant in Rio Grande do Sul, which is going to use several sorts of waste in the manufacturing of an alternative kind of fuel for clinker kilns.

No description available.

台灣的銀行保險於2000年興起，2009年銀行通路初年度保費收入（First Year Premium, FYP）占整體壽險業初年度保費收入的比重達63.15%，首次超越傳統業務員通路，至2012年為止皆維持5成以上，顯示銀行通路對壽險公司的重要性。實務上壽險公司同時會與多家銀行簽訂保險銷售的合作契約，如何確保合作銀行招攬之業務是對公司有益而非反而造成公司虧損，成為壽險公司重要的課題。 　　本研究依據銀行之設立時間、是否由政府持股、是否具金控背景、是否為非商業銀行、資產規模及公司治理結構等特性進行分類，由各類銀行通路招攬之醫療險是否發生短期理賠及短期理賠之總金額判斷其業務品質，並利用logistic迴歸模型及OLS迴歸模型探討合作銀行之特性對銀行保險業務品質之影響。 　　實證結果顯示，1991年以前設立之舊銀行、商業銀行及大資產規模之銀行的短期理賠狀況較少，契約品質較佳。至於銀行是否由政府持股、是否具金控背景及銀行的公司治理結構等因素則對短期理賠並沒有顯著的影響。理賠金額方面，實證結果則顯示所有銀行特性對於理賠金額之影響都是不顯著的，表示被保險人或許會因為投保銀行之特性影響其申請理賠之機率，但不會因銀行之特性影響申請理賠之金額。 / Bancassurance in Taiwan has been developed rapidly since 2000. In 2009, first year premium (FYP) of life insurance from bank channels exceeds FYP from agent channels for the first time. It is clear that bank channels are very important for life insurance companies. Thus, how to maintain the quality of insurance business from every bank channel becomes a big concern for life insurance companies. This study judge the quality of insurance business by observing the conditions of claim of permanent health insurance selling in bank channels, and use logistic regression and OLS regression to analyze the relationship between the characteristics of banks and the quality of bancassurance based on the foundation time of banks, the equity possessions of banks, the assets of banks, the corporate governance structure of banks, and so forth. According to the empirical results, the characteristics of banks affect the probability of short-term claim, but the characteristics of banks do not affect the amount of claim.

在市埸外在環境及法令政策的改變之下，台灣的銀行保險業務自2000年起快速發展，並帶動整體壽險業保費規模的成長。通常壽險公司同時會跟許多家銀行合作推動銀行保險，但與每家合作銀行之合作關係不盡相同，而由於銀行通路對壽險業極為重要，因此壽險公司皆希望所有合作銀行所招攬之保險業務都能有良好的品質，使保險業與銀行業的合作形成雙贏的局面。 　　本研究依據合作銀行之相對談判力、合作銀行與壽險公司間的信賴關係及壽險公司是否持股合作銀行等指標，輔以各銀行通路之醫療險損失情形判斷其業務品質，並藉由logistic迴歸模型及OLS迴歸模型探討銀行保險業務中，合作銀行與壽險公司之間的合作關係對銀行保險業務品質之影響。 　　實證結果顯示，相對談判力小、信任程度高及保險公司有投資股權的合作銀行，其短期理賠的機率較低，而銀行與保險公司間的合作關係對於理賠金額則沒有顯著影響。 / Due to the motivation of macroeconomic environment and the change of regulation, bancasssurance in Taiwan develops quickly these years. In general, life insurance companies sign cooperative contracts with plenty of banks, but the relationship with every bank could be different. All life insurance company wish that the quality of insurance business from every bank channel maintains very well despite the different cooperative relationships. This study evaluate the quality of insurance business by observing the conditions of claim of permanent health insurance selling in bank channels, and use logistic regression and OLS regression to analyze how the relationship between insurance companies and banks affects the quality of bancassurance According to the empirical results, when banks have relatively weaker bargaining power, banks are highly trusted or invested by insurance companies, the quality of bancassurance from the above-mentioned bank channels is better.