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The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers
to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is
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Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
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World oil supply and unconventional resources : Bottom-up perspectives on tight oil productionWachtmeister, Henrik January 2018 (has links)
Oil is the world’s largest primary energy source. It dominates the transportation sector which underpins the world economy. Yet, oil is a nonrenewable resource, destined not to last forever. In the mid-2000s global conventional oil production stagnated, leading to rising oil prices and fears of permanent oil scarcity. These fears, together with the high prices, receded with the unforeseen emergence of a new supply source: tight oil. This licentiate thesis investigates unconventional tight oil production and its impacts on world oil supply in terms of resource availability and oil market dynamics, and in turn briefly discusses some possible wider economic, political and environmental implications of these impacts. The thesis is based on three papers. The first investigates the usefulness of bottom-up modelling by a retrospective study of past oil projections. The second looks at how unconventional tight oil production can be modelled on the well level using decline curve analysis. The third derives typical production parameters for conventional offshore oil fields, a growing segment of conventional production and a useful comparison to tight oil. The results show that tight oil production has increased resource availability significantly, as well as introduced a fast responding marginal supply source operating on market principles rather than political ones. The emergence of tight oil production has altered OPEC’s strategic options and led to a period of lower and less volatile oil prices. However, this condition of world oil supply can only last as long as the unconventional resource base allows, and, at the same time, total fossil fuel consumption will have to fall to limit climate change. It is concluded that this breathing space with lower oil prices could be used as an opportunity to develop and implement policy for an efficient managed decline of global oil use in order to achieve the dual goals of increased human economic welfare and limited climate change, and in the process preempt any future oil supply shortage. Unconventional tight oil production can both help and hinder in this endeavor. Accurate models and analyses of oil production dynamics and impacts are therefore crucial when maneuvering towards this preferred future.
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[en] MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING MODEL FOR STRATEGIC PLANNING OF THE OIL SUPPLY CHAIN UNDER UNCERTAINTY / [pt] MODELO DE PROGRAMAÇÃO MATEMÁTICA ESTOCÁSTICA PARA O PLANEJAMENTO ESTRATÉGICO DA CADEIA DE PETRÓLEO SOB INCERTEZAJULIEN PIERRE CASTELLO BRANCO 25 February 2019 (has links)
[pt] O presente trabalho tem como foco o estudo do Sistema Petrobras, no que
tange o planejamento estratégico dos investimentos da Companhia, sob a ótica
da cadeia integrada do petróleo. A partir de um dos modelos matemáticos mais
utilizados (e há mais tempo) na empresa, diversas decisões estratégicas de suma
importância são suportadas, de modo a maximizar seu resultado operacional ao
longo de um horizonte de tempo da ordem de 10 (dez) anos. Com embasamento
na literatura atual, evoluções são propostas e testadas no modelo matemático.
Primeiramente são introduzidas técnicas de programação estocástica em dois
estágios, onde as decisões de investimento são representadas por variáveis de
primeiro estágio; e a operação de todo o sistema – desde o refino até a
comercialização do petróleo e derivados, passando por toda a questão logística –
passa a fazer parte do segundo estágio, após a realização / revelação dos
parâmetros estocásticos. Em um segundo passo, técnicas de decomposição são
aplicadas para contornar eventuais limitações geradas pelo grande porte atingido
pelo modelo, que cresce proporcionalmente ao número de cenários envolvidos
na otimização. Os resultados mostram que o modelo estocástico começa a
esbarrar nestas limitações a partir da resolução de problemas com mais de 30
cenários. Por outro lado, apesar do tempo computacional consideravelmente
maior, o modelo decomposto chegou a resolver até 80 cenários, nos testes
realizados. / [en] This work focuses on the study of Petrobras, regarding the strategic
planning of the Company s investments, from an integrated oil supply chain
perspective. From one of the most widely used mathematical models in the
Company, several strategic decisions of great importance are supported, so as to
maximize its operating result over a time horizon of approximately 10 (ten)
years. Based in current literature, developments are proposed and tested in the
mathematical model. First, two-stage stochastic programming techniques are
introduced, where investment decisions are represented by first-stage variables;
and system s operation – from oil refining and sales to the entire logistics issue –
by second-stage variables, after realization of the stochastic parameters. In a
second step, decomposition techniques are applied to circumvent any large scale
limitations. The results show that the stochastic model starts to reach these
limitations in problems with 30 scenarios or more. On the other hand, despite the
considerably greater computational time, the decomposed model was able to
solve up to 80-scenarios problems, during the tests.
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The Impact of IEA Reports on Oil-Related Markets陳俊源, Chen, Jiun-Yuan Unknown Date (has links)
國際能源機構(IEA)每個月的石油報告已經變成預測世界石油供給與需求一個很重要的資源。因此，我們蒐集從1990年10月到2005年12月中國際能源機構所發佈的179次宣告，利用事件研究法來衡量國際能源機構對石油相關市場的影響性。
實證結果顯示，國際能源機構的石油報告的確對石油相關市場傳達重要的資訊；而國際能源機構報告的影響效果似乎會隨著國家的不同而有所不同；在當中，石油的生產和消費量多寡、石油的密集度和油價中稅占的比例都扮演重要的角色；此外，在國際能源機構的報告中，關於預測石油需求變化這方面似乎特別被大家所重視。 / This study examines the impact of International Energy Agency's Oil Market Reports on oil-related prices. The IEA reports, published monthly in Paris, have become the primary source of world oil supply and demand forecasts. We collect 179 announcements that released by IEA over the period October 1990 to December 2005. We analyze the effects of these reports on three oil-related markets, IPE Brent Crude futures, oil industry indices and stock prices of oil companies in six countries. Moreover, we separate the effects of IEA’s forecast changes on oil supply from non-OPEC countries and oil demand from North America and China in IEA’s report.
The results confirm that IEA’s reports carry important information source for oil-related markets because more than one half of our sample companies have abnormal returns around the announcement date of IEA’s reports, and we explore these prices respond negatively to the release of IEA’s reports. We also find that the actively traded IPE Brent Crude futures contracts are affected by IEA’s reports, particularly for the change of demand in North America. Forecast changes in IEA’s reports regarding supply in non-OPEC countries, demand in North America and China show that most countries are affected by the changes in these reports. The evidences also show that British and Norwegian oil stock markets react more strongly to the change of oil demand in North America and China. Moreover, we find that participants in the oil market put more emphasis on demand changes reported by IEA, especially for China demand. And we provides empirical evidence that these companies are concerned more about the related releases of decreased demand in North America and increased demand in China. Finally, cross-sectional analysis of cumulative abnormal returns suggests that the reaction of American and Norwegian companies to IEA’s announcements is stronger than other countries, and the change of demand in North America and China and the size variable for individual company contribute to the changes of abnormal returns around IEA’s reports.
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Kurz- und langfristige Angebotskurven für Rohöl und die Konsequenzen für den MarktSchlothmann, Daniel 20 April 2016 (has links) (PDF)
In dieser Arbeit wurden Angebotskurven für 22 bedeutende Ölförderländer ermittelt und anschließend zu globalen Angebotskurven aggregiert. Gemäß den ermittelten Angebotskurven sind nahezu alle gegenwärtig in der Förderphase befindlichen Ölprojekte in den Untersuchungsländern auch beim aktuellen Ölpreis von 35 bis 40 US-$ je Barrel unter Berücksichtigung der kurzfristigen Grenzkosten rentabel. Sollte der Ölpreis jedoch in den kommenden Jahren auf diesem Niveau verharren, wird es bis zum Jahr 2024 zu einem Angebotsengpass auf dem globalen Ölmarkt kommen, da zur Deckung der zukünftigen Nachfrage die Erschließung kostenintensiver, unkonventioneller Lagerstätten und von Lagerstätten in tiefen und sehr tiefen Gewässern notwendig ist. Damit es bis zum Jahr 2024 nicht zu einem solchen Angebotsengpass kommt, ist gemäß des ermittelten langfristigen Marktgleichgewichts ein Ölpreis von mindestens 80 (2014er) US-$ je Barrel notwendig.
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Kurz- und langfristige Angebotskurven für Rohöl und die Konsequenzen für den MarktSchlothmann, Daniel 08 March 2016 (has links)
In dieser Arbeit wurden Angebotskurven für 22 bedeutende Ölförderländer ermittelt und anschließend zu globalen Angebotskurven aggregiert. Gemäß den ermittelten Angebotskurven sind nahezu alle gegenwärtig in der Förderphase befindlichen Ölprojekte in den Untersuchungsländern auch beim aktuellen Ölpreis von 35 bis 40 US-$ je Barrel unter Berücksichtigung der kurzfristigen Grenzkosten rentabel. Sollte der Ölpreis jedoch in den kommenden Jahren auf diesem Niveau verharren, wird es bis zum Jahr 2024 zu einem Angebotsengpass auf dem globalen Ölmarkt kommen, da zur Deckung der zukünftigen Nachfrage die Erschließung kostenintensiver, unkonventioneller Lagerstätten und von Lagerstätten in tiefen und sehr tiefen Gewässern notwendig ist. Damit es bis zum Jahr 2024 nicht zu einem solchen Angebotsengpass kommt, ist gemäß des ermittelten langfristigen Marktgleichgewichts ein Ölpreis von mindestens 80 (2014er) US-$ je Barrel notwendig.:1. Einleitung
2. Rohöl - Eine naturwissenschaftliche Einführung
3. Charakteristika von Rohölprojekten
4. Historie der Ölindustrie
5. Ökonomik von Rohölprojekten
6. Fallstudien zu den bedeutendsten Förderländern
7. Ermittlung regionaler und globaler Angebotskurven
8. Zusammenfassung
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