台灣自1994年起由文建會推動社區營造，有別於中央主導的方式，，試圖以「在地行動」、「由下而上」的核心概念，讓社區發展以在地居民需求為導向，自發性地營造出各具特色的社區。但社造是涉及許多共用資源管理的複雜議題，早期臺灣地區居民缺乏社造經驗，參與公共事務的意願不高，加上未有一套完整的模式進行輔導，導致二十年來實際成功之案例並不多見。近年來隨著公眾議題發燒，臺灣民眾自主意識提升、開始重視公共事務，正是積極發展社造之際。但環顧國內社區對於共用資源的管理，能在期盼有一套良好的制度或模式得以依循。 本研究案例木柵二期重劃區，其自主組織「木柵二期重劃區促進發展協進會」透過社會生態系統(Social-Ecological System；以下簡稱SES)的應用，有效將自主治理理論(Self-governance Theory)運用於社造，用以解決共用資源的問題，甚至曾受邀請至世界衛生組織(WHO)，分享成功經驗。但本研究發現，將自主治理理論應用於社造之研究竟付之闕如，更沒有一套可供社造工作者參考的模型。故本研究試圖以木柵二期重劃區為案例，建立一套社造自主治理之量化模型。 本研究整理自主治理領域的相關文獻後發現，自主治理的研究雖以質化研究為主，但隨著SES的演進與簡化，是有建立量化模型之可能性。故本研究先對本案例「木柵二期重劃區」進行深度訪談及問卷調查，匯整其成功自主治理之社造沿革、社造過程、社造結果的要素，並將其與SES各種核心子系統進行對應，發現有其適用性。據此，再參考2014年的架構，提出資源體系、資源單體、治理體系、參與者四個構面皆顯著影響作用情境之假設，建立本案例之社造社會生態系統模型，於2014年11月對區內20歲以上居民發放問卷。 因素分析的結果顯示，模型整體的建構效度良好；但核心子系統需修正為三個(因本案例之資源體系與資源單體的重疊性較高，故歸納為資源體系稱之)。其次，迴歸分析驗證之結果亦顯示本案例所提出之資源體系、參與者顯著影響作用情境，此兩個假設獲得支持；另外由於當初將治理體系的設定為地方政府，將自主治理組織木柵二期重劃區促進發展協進會歸納為參與者，導致結果顯示治理體系不會顯著影響作用情境。 故本研究的結果顯示，透過SES模型將自主治理理論導入社造是一條可行的方式，然社造的議題涉及層面與考量因素甚廣，且於世界各地亦有許多官方、民間的組織仍不斷的實作以及推廣。唯本研究僅以自主治理理論是否可導入社造為角度切入，與當前主流理論不盡相同，須就其優缺點、以及對現象的解釋力進行比較，然受限於本研究之時間、人力、成本，仍待後續研究者的協助。 研究者本身為協進會理事長，經由近十年之實務操作經驗，並透過本研究之驗證，深知社造之特徵實與自主治理理論概念相近、本研究所建立之社造SES模型，亦有良好的建構效度。故期望能將此實證建構之模型推廣到更多地區，建立社造成功的模式、營造更多桃花源般的社區，使人安住休息，並希望人類從此幸福、和諧、安康。 / Ever since 1994, the Council for Cultural Affairs (CCA) in Taiwan has pro-moted a placemaking movement totally different from the programs previously offered. With the core concepts of “local activities” and “bottom-up” in mind, the movement aims to help develop the communities around the island that could meet the demands of the local residents and automatically display their unique-ness. In the early days, however, the residents in Taiwan did not seem to get very actively involved in public affairs and have access to a good model to follow. Successful cases were rare in the past two decades. In the recent years, public issues have been under heated discussion and autonomous consciousness, raised among the general public. The time has come to develop the placemaking. Considering the management of common-pool resources involved with placemaking and the people’s total lack of the experience, a good system or model is needed to follow. However, the problems faced with the management of common-pool resources, home or abroad, have not been solved, either through the free market or the government centralization, until 1990 when Ostrom proposed his self-governance theory. But no research has been found on the application of self-governance theory to placemaking so far. Taking this into account, this research is intended to apply self-governance theory to the placemaking in “the second phase of re-planning the Mu-zha District” as an example. Through depth interviews and questionnaire survey, this study tries to know how residents themselves have worked on their placemaking, what are the key factors for their success, and, further, have a good grip of how their self-governance organization—The Community Development Association of the Second Phase of Re-planning the Mu-zha District —has applied self-governance theory to the placemaking so successfully. To illustrate, first, through depth interviews with experts, scholars, and local opinion leaders, this researcher collected the data on the evolution of placemaking in the second phase of re-planning the Mu-zha District, its process and outcomes, finding that “community resources in place” and “leaders with strong leadership” are the key factors for residents’ high satisfaction. Then, in the qualitative study, this researcher compared each of the counterparts both in self-governance system and social-ecological system (SES), finding that the self-governance theory has its applicability. Next, to establish a SES framework suited for this study, this researcher adapted the SES set by McGinnis and Ostrom in 2014 and proposed the resource system, the resource unit, the governance system and participants for factor anal-ysis. In November, 2014, questionnaires were handed out to the district residents aged 20 and over. Through factor analysis, it is found that the construct validity of the so-cial-ecological system for this study is good. Since there is a considerable overlap between the resources system in this study and the resources unit, we called them the resources system. The regression analysis also concludes that the resources system and participants proposed in this study are gaining support. Because the hypothesis of governance system in this research is local government, the inhab-itant trusts the Development Association; therefore the governance system cannot obviously affect the focal action situation. With one decade’s practical experience in the placemaking and through the verification of this study, this researcher, also the chairman of Community De-velopment Association realizes that the features of placemaking are quite close to the concept of self-governance theory. And the construct validity of the estab-lished SES in this study also proves to be good.It is therefore highly expected that the model of placemaking proposed in this study could be promoted to more re-gions around the whole world in the hope of building more wonderful communi-ties, where people could live peacefully and happily.

This dissertation examines sensation in twentieth-century narratives of London and argues that vulnerability is a constitutive experience of the post-imperial city. Sensations of vulnerability in London arise because of the built environment of the city: its status as an imperial center and a global capital create important intersections of local, national, and global concerns which render the city itself vulnerable. I chart the trajectory of vulnerability as an affective history of London that is documented in cultural texts ranging from fiction and film to political debates and legal materials. Since the sensational experiences of the present partly arise from the materials of the past embedded in the landscape, affective histories create new ways of understanding history as a spatial experience. The narrated sensations of the city make vulnerability legible as a persistent feature of twentieth-century London life. I begin with a modernist, imperial London, in Virginia Woolf's Mrs. Dalloway and in Parliamentary debates from the same year (1925). Ambivalence about London's dual status as a local site and as a national and international capital is a response to London's vulnerable position at the end of the Great War. Next, I turn to World War Two London and Elizabeth Bowen's The Heat of the Day. I discuss intimacy as an important national feature in narratives of London during the crisis of this war. National narratives about intimacy constructed by Winston Churchill and heard on BBC radio respond directly to London's defensive vulnerability. My third chapter concerns Margaret Thatcher's 1980s London and the crucial role autonomy plays in constructing London as an invulnerable, international financial and civic capital. Alan Hollinghurst's The Swimming-Pool Library documents Londoners' attempts to make sense of their autonomy in a postimperial capital. My final chapter examines sensations of social and political belonging in contemporary London through reading Stephen Frears's Dirty Pretty Things alongside legal documents about immigration. I contend that reading cultural texts affectively creates counter-histories of the city that accommodate a deeper range of experiences than do traditional histories and offers to literary studies a new way of understanding the relationship between official and unofficial histories. / text

本文延伸Hull and White (2010)之跨池因子繫聯結構模型中違約相關性之描述，藉由納入Normal Inverse Gaussian分配並允許其帶有狀態轉換之特性，我們探究信用結構式商品清償順位結構中，影響次順位信用保護層(subordination level)之因素。我們以房屋抵押擔保貸款債權憑證(MBS CDO)為例，分析資產違約相關性、資產池微粒化程度、跨池違約相關性等結構性變數如何影響分券評等之合理性及風險特徵。本文的研究結果呼應Azzalini and Capitanio(2003)中所提及採用Gaussian因子繫聯結構模型之於評價信用結構商品的缺失。我們發現增進信用資產池損失分配的之厚尾性描述，得以改善高估或低估分券信用價差的情況。 / By incorporating the Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution and allowing for regime shifts in the correlation structure of the multi-pool factor copula of Hull and White (2010), in this thesis we explorer the factors constituenting the subordination levels of credit-structured products. Using MBS CDOs as an example, we examine how model-embedded variables, such as default correlation, reference-portfolio granularity, and cross-pool correlation, affect the risk profiles of MBS CDO tranches. Our numerical results echo the findings of Azzalini and Capitanio(2003) in that correlation structure obtained under the Gaussian factor copula model may be inadequate in capturing the fact-tailed characteristic of the reference-pool loss distribution, thus can result in over/under-estimation of CDO tranche spreads.

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A system of systems (SoS) framework is proposed for policy design that takes into account the value systems of multiple participants, harnesses the complexity of strategic interactions among participants, and confronts the risks and uncertainties present in participants’ decision making. SoS thinking provides an integrative and adaptive mindset, which is needed to tackle policy challenges characterized by conflict, complexity, and uncertainty. With the aim of putting SoS thinking into practice, operational methods and tools are presented herein. Specifically, SoS engineering methodologies to create value system models, agent-based models of competitive and cooperative behaviour under conflict, and risk management models are developed and integrated into the framework. The proposed structure, methods and tools can be utilized to organize policy design discourse. Communication among participants involved in the policy discussion is structured around SoS models, which are used to integrate multiple perspectives of a system and to test the effectiveness of policies in achieving desirable outcomes under varying conditions. In order to demonstrate the proposed methods and tools that have been developed to enliven policy design discourse, a theoretical common-pool resources dilemma is utilized. The generic application illustrates the methodology of constructing ordinal preferences from values. Also, it is used to validate the agent-based modeling and simulation platform as a tool to investigate strategic interactions among participants and harness the potential to influence and enable participants to achieve desirable outcomes. A real-world common pool resources dilemma in the provisioning and security considerations of the Straits of Malacca and Singapore is examined and employed as a case study for applying strategic conflict models in risk management. Overall, this thesis advances the theory and application of SoS engineering and focuses on understanding value systems, handling complexity in terms of conflict dynamics, and finally, enhancing risk management.

La thérapie de resynchronisation cardiaque (CRT) est un traitement qui diminue la mortalité et améliore la qualité de vie des patients atteints d’insuffisance cardiaque et présentant un dyssynchronisme de la contraction ventriculaire gauche. Malgré le succès de cette thérapie, plus de 30% des patients ne présentent pas l’amélioration désirée. Plusieurs études portant sur le synchronisme électrique ou mécanique de la contraction ont été effectuées mais peu d’entres elles se sont attardées sur le couplage électromécanique à l'échelle macroscopique. Ce projet a comme objectif d’observer le comportement électromécanique des ventricules canins en présence d’un resynchronisateur cardiaque. Un logiciel a été développé pour permettre l’analyse des informations provenant de la cartographie endocardique sans contact et de la ventriculographie isotopique tomographique chez 12 sujets canins insuffisants. Pour observer la réponse mécanique suite à l’activation électrique, nous avons premièrement recalé les surfaces issues des 2 modalités. Ensuite, nous avons défini les limites du cycle cardiaque, analysé les signaux électriques et les courbes de déplacement de la paroi endocardique. Le début de la contraction est défini par un déplacement radial de 10% vers le centre du ventricule. Les résultats démontrent que la durée d’activation du ventricule gauche et la largeur du QRS augmentent en présence d’une stimulation externe et que les délais électromécaniques sont indépendants dans les modes de stimulation étudiés (sinusal, LVbasal, RVapex ou BIV) avec une moyenne de 84,56±7,19 ms. Finalement, nous avons noté que la stimulation basolatérale procure une fonction cardiaque optimale malgré une durée prolongée du QRS. / Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy (CRT) is known to decrease mortality rate and improve the quality of life for patients suffering from heart failure with left ventricular contraction dyssynchrony. However, it has been shown that 30% of patients do not respond to this therapy. Many studies have investigated the electrical or mechanical synchronism of contraction but few have studied the activation contraction coupling on a macroscopic level. The objective of this study is to observe the left ventricle’s electromechanical behaviour under biventricular stimulation. A software has been developed to analyse the data coming from non-contact mapping and blood pool SPECT for 12 dogs with heart failure. In order to observe the mechanical response following an electrical activation, we have registered 3D surfaces generated by the 2 modalities. Afterward, we defined the cardiac cycle limits, and we analyzed electrical signals as well as endocardial wall displacement curves where the onset of contraction was defined as a 10% inward radial displacement. Results show that both duration of left ventricular activation and QRS increase with pacing and that electromechanical delays are independent of stimulation mode (mean value 84,56 ± 7,19 ms). Finally, we observed that basolateral stimulation shows the best improvement for left ventricular function while presenting a long QRS duration.

Social comparison influences well-being, especially during psychological threat. Social comparison outcomes have been theorized to depend on motivation, frequency, contrast versus identification, with a better- versus worse-off other. To reduce this complexity in the theory, 94 senior-housing residents were interviewed and cluster analysis was conducted. Four clusters emerged. Half the interviewees formed a cluster using only adaptive social comparison methods. Adaptives were contrasted with a cluster of indiscriminate comparers, a cluster striving for improvement, and a cluster of participants disagreeing with most questions. Clusters differed especially in patterns of downward identification, upward and downward contrast. Self-evaluation and uncertainty-reduction also differed between clusters; self-enhancement and self-improvement motivations did not. Cluster membership had no direct effect on well-being, but moderation analysis demonstrated threat-buffering of high neuroticism in the adaptive cluster. The benefits were not due to self-esteem or educational level. By separating individuals rather than behaviors, cluster analysis provides a fresh perspective.

本文旨在探討灌溉水資源系統中的「水圳」，在歷史的發展脈絡下如何成為農村不可或缺的依賴性治理制度。而都市化與工業發展興起後，水圳面臨了設施改造與治理困境，其制度本身所產生之變革以及新興治理機制對原有組織之影響。 本文透過美濃獅子頭水圳為個案研究，運用伊利諾‧歐斯壯(E.Ostrom)之「共用資源永續發展治理八大原則」為水圳資源有效治理之理論背景，檢視早期美濃獅子頭水圳的集體行動組織（地方水利會-農民），如何成功地在自主治理的機制中運作，並探討在現代化發展過程中宏觀的外在結構環境，包含農業轉型、停徵會費、派系競爭、水患問題等變化，對既有的共用資源制度產生的衝擊與弱化。以及民主化後由愛鄉協進會透過反水庫社會運動帶動社區總體營造對於水圳治理的創新模式。本文認為早期獅子頭水圳在資源邊界、集體選擇、對組織權最低限度認可與多中心治理等面向建立起維持永續發展之基礎。制度本身雖遭受外在環境變遷而呈現鬆散，但由於觀光休閒農業的推廣，吸引農村漂鳥回流，對灌溉水資源的參與治理渴望達到穩定的力量。並且，透過給予掌水工與水利小組的正式與非正式制度性誘因，可以有效調節灌溉用水並做為提供移轉調撥其他產業用水的基礎。最後，在地方性非營利組織「愛鄉協進會」進入水圳系統的治理後，挑戰由半官僚水利會所掌控的政治經濟功能掛帥水圳系統，更融入生態、文化、公民參與等不同的元素形成一共同治理新模式，除了延續後農業時代水圳的灌溉功能之外，也強化其制度韌性。藉由這些發現，本文進而提出實務與理論的研究建議，以做為後農業時代水資源灌溉系統的永續發展之借鏡。 / The subject of this essay is to explore the reason why an irrigation canal, in the process of historical development, became an indispensable governance institution in the villages. Also, in the advent of urbanization and industrialization, the irrigation canal faces a situation of the renovation of facility as well as the predicament of governance, in which the institution itself changes and newly governance system influences the original organizations. This study takes Shihtou Irrigation Canal in Meinung as the object. Using Elino Ostrom’s eight design principles of stable local common pool resource (CPR) management to review the successful self-governance mechanisms in operation performed by the early local collective action organization (mainly made by Taiwan Joint Irrigation Association and farmers). Also the paper explains the impacts of macro-environment, including the agricultural transformation, stop collecting fees, factional competition and flooding, on the existing system of CPR. And an innovational governance participated by a Meinung People's Association, a grass-roots organization from anti-reservoir activities to comprehensive community development in the era of post-democratization. Results of this study showed as follows: Firstly, early Shihtou irrigation canal maintain the basis for establishing sustainable development as result of clearly defined boundaries, collective-choice arrangement, minimal recognition of rights to organize, and nested enterprises. Besides, although it was weaken by the later change of external structure, the development of leisure agriculture attracted recurrent youth for agriculture, who was desired for reviving the power of appropriation in canal self-governance. Meanwhile, the institutional design of water-inspectors and water conservancy group arranged through formal and informal incentives can effectively regulate the right of water for irrigation and serve as providing the basis for the allocation of water for other industries. Finally, a local non-profit organization Meinung People's Association challenges the governance system originally controlled by a half-bureaucratic management of local Farm Irrigation Association. Compared with the mainly political and economic functions of water governance by the latter, the former emphasize the different elements of ecological, cultural, and civic participation. This formation of New model of shared governance in canal not only continue its irrigational function in post-agriculture, but also strengthen its institutional tenacity..With these findings, the paper puts forward practical and theoretical study suggests in order to learn as a sustainable development of water resources in the era of post-agricultural irrigation systems.

Comprendre les mécanismes moteurs et pouvoir anticiper l'impact environnemental du phénomène El Niño Oscillation Australe (ENOA) constituent des enjeux scientifiques et sociétaux de première importance, notamment pour les Pays Emergents. Dans cette thèse, nous avons documenté et contrasté la signature de différents types d'ENOA - dits canoniques et Modoki - pour plusieurs variables climatiques essentielles (température et salinité de surface, niveau de la mer, courant de surface, précipitation, vent de surface, ...), analysé la pertinence de la théorie dite de recharge / décharge, une des quatre théories majeures d'ENOA, à rendre compte ou non de la nature quasi oscillatoire de ces différents types et quantifié l'impact potentiel des modifications des caractéristiques majeures d'ENOA sur notre interprétation des tendances climatiques à 'long' terme pour ces variables climatiques essentielles.

Social comparison influences well-being, especially during psychological threat. Social comparison outcomes have been theorized to depend on motivation, frequency, contrast versus identification, with a better- versus worse-off other. To reduce this complexity in the theory, 94 senior-housing residents were interviewed and cluster analysis was conducted. Four clusters emerged. Half the interviewees formed a cluster using only adaptive social comparison methods. Adaptives were contrasted with a cluster of indiscriminate comparers, a cluster striving for improvement, and a cluster of participants disagreeing with most questions. Clusters differed especially in patterns of downward identification, upward and downward contrast. Self-evaluation and uncertainty-reduction also differed between clusters; self-enhancement and self-improvement motivations did not. Cluster membership had no direct effect on well-being, but moderation analysis demonstrated threat-buffering of high neuroticism in the adaptive cluster. The benefits were not due to self-esteem or educational level. By separating individuals rather than behaviors, cluster analysis provides a fresh perspective.