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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
161

Fatores críticos sobre manifestações de interesse em Parcerias Público-Privadas e as propriedades da visão do produto / Critical success factors of unsolicited proposal in Public-Private Partnerships and product vision properties

Tiago Vieira Caproni 08 March 2018 (has links)
Os Procedimentos de Manifestação de Interesse (PMI) e Propostas Não Solicitadas (PNS) são mecanismos para a viabilização de projetos de Parcerias Público-Privadas (PPP/PFIs). Contudo, a ausência de critérios claros para avaliação e priorização de parceiros, de forma transparente e técnica, leva à seleção adversa de propostas, contribuindo para o insucesso dos projetos. O principal instrumento utilizado na avaliação PPP/PFIs é uma análise quantitativa baseada no Value For Money (VfM). O propósito deste trabalho foi investigar os problemas relacionados com os processos de avaliação das propostas dos PMI submetidas aos órgãos demandantes dos serviços. Iniciou-se com a análise do Fatores Críticos para o Sucesso (FCSs) das PPP/PFIs, dos PMI e PNS, identificadas na literatura. Os Fatores Críticos foram apresentados a um conjunto de 78 especialistas que responderam também sobre a processo de análise das propostas. No questionário os autores foram confrontados também com as propriedades da visão. O resultado indica que a análise com o VfM seria incompleta e insuficiente para capturar a complexidade do escopo destes projetos. A pesquisa possibilitou ainda organizar os fatores críticos em 7 dimensões a serem consideradas na avaliação destes projetos. Essas dimensões podem ser utilizadas para a criação de instrumentos de avaliação e um exemplo foi proposto, um indicador nomeado de índice \"T\", avaliado por um grupo de 12 especialistas em projetos de PPP/PFIs. A pesquisa contribui, portanto, para apoiar a criação de instrumentos de avaliação de PPP/PFIs que considerem uma análise mais ampla, considerando aspectos qualitativos e quantitativos. / Unsolicited Proposals (UNPs) are one of the main mechanisms for verifying the feasibility of Public-Private Partnerships (PPP/PFIs/PFIs) projects. However, the lack of clear criteria to evaluate and to prioritize the partner, in a transparent and technical way, has led to adverse selection of proposals increasing the level of failure of these projects. The main instrument used in the PPP/PFIs evaluation is a quantitative analysis based on Value for Money. The purpose of this research was to investigate the problems related with the processes of evaluation of the Unsolicited Proposals (UNPs) that are submitted to the respective government offices. The study compiles the analysis of Critical Success Factors (CSFs) for Public-Private Partnerships (PPP/PFI) and the Unsolicited Proposals (UNPs), identified in the literature, and synthetized by the evaluation of a group of 78 specialists, resulting in the organization of 7 (seven) dimensions to be considered in the evaluation of these projects. This study also demonstrated that, according to these experts, the analysis with VfM would be incomplete and insufficient to capture the complexity of the scope of these projects. As an alternative a set of 7 (seven) indicators where created related to each dimension and a general index that synthetize the performance in the dimensions, considering qualitative and quantitative aspects. The index was labeled as \"T\" index and evaluated by a group of 12 (twelve) experts on PPP/PFI projects. The results from the analyses indicate that the index allows a linear comparative analysis between the proposals received by the public entity requesting the Public- Private Partnership (PPP/PFI) services. The model of indicators decreases the subjectivity of the choices made by public managers, resulting in greater transparency for the process of proposal qualification and security to the market.
162

Processus formalisé et systémique de management des risques par des projets de construction complexes et stratégiques / Formalized and systematic risk management process for complex and strategic construction projects

Tepeli, Esra 07 July 2014 (has links)
Le management des risques de projet est une préoccupation croissante dans le domaine de la construction. Il ne se limite pas seulement à l’analyse des risques techniques, mais couvre aussi les risques financiers, économiques, organisationnels, réglementaire, contractuel, et d’autres types de risques cruciaux pour des projets de construction complexes et stratégiques. Le management des risques nécessite l’identification, l’analyse, le suivi des risques et des opportunités pendant tout le cycle de vie du projet. Le processus formalisé et systémique de management des risques pour des projets de construction complexes et stratégiques permet d’identifier et d’analyser les risques attachés d’une part à la décomposition chronologique du projet (phases, sous-phases, tâches), à la décomposition organisationnelle du projet (aux acteurs projet), aux ressources, aux contrats, aux facteurs externes et d’autre part aux relations entre ces éléments. Le processus formalisé et systémique s’adapte au caractère dynamique et évolutif du projet, au type de contrat et au type de projet, au niveau de détail souhaité et à la vision de l’acteur qui fait le management des risques. L’ensemble de la démarche est fortement nourri de l’expérience tirée de projets réels au sein de l’entreprise partenaire. Un outil de gestion des risques est mis en place pour mettre en pratique la démarche théorique et pour tester la méthodologie proposée sur plusieurs études de cas des projets Partenariat Public Privé (PPP) et Conception-Construction-Maintenance. / Project risk management is a growing concern in the field of construction. It is not limited to technical risks, but also covers financial risks, economic, organizational or contractual and any type of risks crucial for complex and strategic construction projects. Risk management process involves the identification, analysis, monitoring of risks and opportunities throughout the project life cycle. The formalized and systematic risk management process first identifies and analyzes the risks associated with the chronological decomposition of the project (phases, sub-phases, tasks), with the organizational structure of the project (project actors), with resources, contracts, external factors and material or immaterial flows between these elements. The formalized and systematic approach adapts to the dynamic and evolving nature of the project, to the type of contract and the type of project, to the level of detail and the vision of the stakeholder who manages risks. The whole process is highly fed by real projects study cases. A tool for risk management is developed to put into practice the theoretical approach and to test the process in the case studies of Public Private Partnership (PPP) and Design-Build-Maintenance projects.
163

[en] OPPORTUNISTIC BEHAVIOR AND RENEGOTIATION IN PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS: AN INCENTIVE MECHANISM APPROACH / [pt] COMPORTAMENTO OPORTUNISTA E RENEGOCIAÇÃO EM PARCERIAS PÚBLICO-PRIVADAS: UMA ABORDAGEM POR MECANISMOS DE INCENTIVOS

JULIO CEZAR RUSSO PINTO DA SILVA 05 February 2018 (has links)
[pt] A estrutura de contratos de Parcerias Público-Privadas (PPP) tem como característica o compartilhamento de riscos do projeto entre o governo e investidor. PPPs têm longo prazo de maturação, volumes elevados de investimentos iniciais e incerteza quanto às receitas. O comportamento futuro de agentes públicos e privados pode transmitir um risco adicional, tornando projetos pouco atrativos quando informações relevantes não ficam evidentes em um contrato. A teoria dos jogos tem sido um instrumento amplamente utilizado para trazer soluções analíticas quando o problema de assimetria de informação está presente. Portanto, este trabalho utiliza os conceitos de teóricos de mecanismos compatíveis com incentivos para PPPs objetivando: (i) aprimoramento de falhas contratuais ex-post via condições ex-ante ; (ii) aprimorar um modelo de jogo de renegociação de PPPs, mostrando como o comportamento oportunista pode ser evitado. Analisa-se o processo de concessão do Complexo Maracanã, como caso ilustrativo via uso de proposições, lemas e teoremas, mostrando que o edital do Governo do Estado do Rio de Janeiro é sub-ótimo do ponto de vista da Teoria de Desenho de Mecanismos. / [en] The Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) contract structure is characterized by the sharing of project risks between the government and the investor. PPPs have long maturation maturities, high initial investment volumes and revenue uncertainty. The future behavior of public and private agents may carry an additional risk, making projects unattractive when relevant information is not evident in a contract. Game theory has been a widely used instrument to provide analytical solutions when the problem of information asymmetry is present. Therefore, this thesis uses the concepts of mechanism theorists compatible with incentives for PPPs, aiming: (i) improvement of ex-ante and ex-post contractual failures; (ii) to improve a PPP renegotiation game model, showing how opportunistic behavior can be avoided. It analyzes the concession process of the Maracanã Complex as illustrative case via use of propositions, lemmas and theorems, showing that the State Government s announcement of Rio de Janeiro is sub-optimal from the point of view of the mechanisms of Design Theory.
164

Gestão de contratos de parcerias de investimento: lições e aprendizados a partir do estudo de caso da PPP da Linha 4

Grandizoli, Thaís Rey 22 August 2018 (has links)
Submitted by Thaís Rey Grandizoli (thais.rey@gmail.com) on 2018-10-05T15:09:27Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Trabalho de Conclusão (Versao para Depósito Final) (Thais Rey Grandizoli).pdf: 1409577 bytes, checksum: 6e29d3c69a1070cb0c09e7bdfb117502 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Thais Oliveira (thais.oliveira@fgv.br) on 2018-10-10T19:10:05Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Trabalho de Conclusão (Versao para Depósito Final) (Thais Rey Grandizoli).pdf: 1409577 bytes, checksum: 6e29d3c69a1070cb0c09e7bdfb117502 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzane Guimarães (suzane.guimaraes@fgv.br) on 2018-10-11T12:46:25Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Trabalho de Conclusão (Versao para Depósito Final) (Thais Rey Grandizoli).pdf: 1409577 bytes, checksum: 6e29d3c69a1070cb0c09e7bdfb117502 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-10-11T12:46:25Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Trabalho de Conclusão (Versao para Depósito Final) (Thais Rey Grandizoli).pdf: 1409577 bytes, checksum: 6e29d3c69a1070cb0c09e7bdfb117502 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-08-22 / A presente dissertação de mestrado tem por objetivo abordar o tema da gestão de contratos de parcerias de investimento – concessões e parcerias público-privadas –, especificamente para retratar o ambiente atual envolvendo o gerenciamento desses contratos pela administração pública. Para evitar inferências genéticas e oriundas de percepções decorrentes da experiência prática, própria de quem atua no setor, optei por adotar o método de estudo de caso para identificar se essas percepções se comprovariam a partir de uma pesquisa empírica. Para tanto, elegi a PPP da Linha 4, cuja análise dos processos de gestão instaurados ao longo da execução desse contrato revelou questões interessantes e muito úteis para traçar um diagnóstico do tema e, a partir disso, contribuir – assim se espera – para reflexões visando à melhoria do ambiente de execução de negócios entre o setor público e o setor privado, cujas percepções de risco são especialmente mais sensíveis quando se trata da celebração de parcerias de investimento. / The purpose of this Master's thesis is to discuss the management of long-term investment contracts – concessions and public-private partnerships – specifically to evidence the current environment involving the management of these contracts by the Public Administration. To avoid genetic inferences, it was decided to adopt the case study method to identify relevant questions on the subject. For this purpose, the PPP of Line 4 was chosen, which empirical analysis of the administrative procedures established during the execution of this contract showed interesting and very useful questions to draw a diagnosis of this work`s subject and also contribute to reflections aimed at improving the business environment between the public and the private sector, where perceptions of risk are especially more sensitive when compared to other public businesses cases.
165

A proposta de educação do MST e o PPP do CEIAS: uma análise descritiva de suas convergências e divergências (1996-2012) / The MST education proposal and the CEIAS PPP: a descriptive analysis of its convergences and divergences (1996 - 2012)

Ferreira Sobrinho, José 17 December 2014 (has links)
Submitted by Neusa Fagundes (neusa.fagundes@unioeste.br) on 2018-04-02T17:52:03Z No. of bitstreams: 2 José_Ferreira Sobrinho2014.pdf: 1689477 bytes, checksum: 20c82ff4c08f93a07389010985c2c8e3 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-04-02T17:52:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 José_Ferreira Sobrinho2014.pdf: 1689477 bytes, checksum: 20c82ff4c08f93a07389010985c2c8e3 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-12-17 / To contextualize the topic and research problem, in the Brazilian context, we emphasize the quantity and complexity of connections that allow us to understand the field of education as a concrete phenomenon (synthesis of many determinations). Therefore, within this larger context, we present a space-time frame for explicitarmos the field context in Paraná from the late 1990s and inserting the Rural Education as a theoretical element and study of our research object. Based on the above, the research problem in question is to analyze how the Proposal of the State Sector of the MST Education materializes or not in the State College Field Ireno Alves dos Santos (1999-2012), Rio Bonito do Iguaçu, State Paraná. Therefore, the steps in the way of research as instruments to achieve the proposed specific objectives are defined as follows: identify how it is organized and how it works pedagogically the school researched field; to compare the resolutions of the State Sector of the MST Education front of the Pedagogical Political Project of the State College Field Ireno Alves dos Santos; and analyze which design education guides each of these pedagogical practices. Thus, we first analyze based on literature the agrarian question in Brazil, to then look at the context of the field in Paraná from the late 1990s and understand how the MST is inserted in this context as wielding flags the struggle for Agrarian Reform and Education - understanding that in practice both are inseparable. From here we will also review based on field research how this scenario of struggle gives way to training camp history "Hole" to the margins of that in years gone 90 (1996) was still called PR, currently BR 158 (federal highway). There begins a long process of struggle and resistance culminating in the occupation of one of the largest estates in southern Brazil and the creation of Ireno settlement Alves dos Santos, in which a state college field, namesake, located in Arapongas community is the site of our research. / Para contextualizar o tema e problema da pesquisa, no cenário brasileiro, enfatizamos a quantidade e a complexidade dos nexos que permitem compreender a Educação do Campo como um fenômeno concreto (síntese de muitas determinações). Portanto, dentro desse contexto maior, apresentamos um recorte espaço-temporal para explicitarmos o contexto do campo no Paraná a partir do final dos anos 1990 e inserirmos a Educação do Campo como elemento teórico e objeto de estudo de nossa pesquisa. Com base no exposto, o problema de pesquisa em questão visa analisar como a Proposta do Setor Estadual de Educação do MST se materializa ou não no Colégio Estadual do Campo Ireno Alves dos Santos (1999 a 2012), município de Rio Bonito do Iguaçu, Estado do Paraná. Por conseguinte, os passos no caminho da pesquisa como instrumentos para alcançar os objetivos específicos propostos, estão assim definidos: identificar como se organiza e como funciona pedagogicamente a escola do campo pesquisada; comparar as resoluções do Setor Estadual de Educação do MST frente ao Projeto Político Pedagógico do Colégio Estadual do Campo Ireno Alves dos Santos; e analisar qual concepção de educação orienta cada uma dessas práticas pedagógicas. Desse modo, vamos analisar primeiramente com base na pesquisa bibliográfica a questão agrária no Brasil, para em seguida analisarmos o contexto do campo no Paraná a partir do final dos anos 1990 e compreendermos como o MST se insere neste contexto empunhando como bandeira a luta por Reforma Agrária e Educação – por entender que na prática ambas não se separam. A partir daqui vamos analisar também com base na pesquisa de campo como é que este cenário de luta dá lugar à formação do histórico acampamento do “Buraco” às margens da rodovia que nos idos anos 90 (1996) ainda era denominada PR, atualmente BR 158 (rodovia federal). Ali tem início um longo processo de luta e resistência que culmina na ocupação de um dos maiores latifúndios do Sul do Brasil e na criação do assentamento Ireno Alves dos Santos, no qual, um colégio estadual do campo, homônimo, situado na comunidade Arapongas, é o local de nossa pesquisa.
166

[pt] AVALIAÇÃO DO PROJETO DE INFRAESTRUTURA DO BRT NO ESTADO DO RIO DE JANEIRO / [en] EVALUATION OF THE BRT INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECT IN THE STATE OF RIO DE JANEIRO

GABRIELA GONZALEZ ESPINOSA 21 June 2022 (has links)
[pt] O Brasil, país pioneiro na implantação do BRT, possui alguns corredores com prioridade para serviços de transporte coletivo por ônibus. O sistema BRT no Rio de Janeiro começou a ser desenvolvido há tempos, mas ficou parado por fatores externos até princípio do ano 2021. A partir dessa data, o seu desenvolvimento foi retomado com uma perspectiva diferente para não cometer os mesmos erros do passado. O novo modelo pretende eliminar o risco de demanda, assim como fazer a separação entre fornecimento e operação dos equipamentos, permitindo a participação de atores especializados. Portanto, neste trabalho pretende determinar a viabilidade do novo modelo implementado do sistema BRT pela perspectiva financeira. Foi feito uma pesquisa geral sobre os principais incentivos governamentais, as características dos BRT e o conhecimento acumulado em diferentes países para a avaliação do modelo de negócio e contrato desenvolvido pela Prefeitura. Além disso foram analisados os fluxos de caixa através dos principais indicadores financeiros. Os resultados mostram que do ponto de vista financeiro o projeto é rentável e lucrativo. O novo modelo permite também uma melhoria na eficiência do sistema de transporte público na cidade e o aumento da satisfação do usuário. A principal contribuição do trabalho é o estudo qualitativo brindando uma comparação entre as diferentes experiências internacionais neste âmbito para conhecer os aspectos favoráveis que se possam ajustar a realidade brasileira da cidade do Rio de Janeiro. / [en] Brazil is a pioneer in the implementation of BRT and has some corridors with priority for public transport services by bus. The BRT system in Rio de Janeiro began to be developed many years ago but was put on hold due to external factors until early 2021, when its development was resumed with a different perspective so as not to make the same mistakes as in the past. The new model intends to eliminate demand risk, as well as implement the separation between supply and operation of the equipment, allowing the inclusion of specialized actors. Therefore, this work intends to determine the feasibility of the new implemented model of the BRT system from a financial perspective. A general survey was carried out on the main government incentives, the characteristics of BRT and the knowledge accumulated in different countries for the evaluation of the business model and contract developed. In addition, cash flow analysis was done using the main financial indicators. The results indicate that from a financial perspective the project is profitable and profitable for the investment. The new model also allows for an improvement in the efficiency of the public transport system in the city and an increase in user satisfaction. The main contribution of the work is the qualitative study providing a comparison between the different international experiences in this field to know the favorable aspects that can adjust to the Brazilian reality of the city of Rio de Janeiro.
167

Essays on an ASEAN Optimal Currency Area

Whittaker Huff, Kathryn J 17 December 2011 (has links)
Many regions of the world would like to replicate the financial and monetary integration of the European Monetary Union (EMU). Member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have shown an interest in such an arrangement. ASEAN is a political, cultural, and economic association that includes Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Many of these nations are experiencing rapid economic development while others are still relatively poor and under developed. As such, they appear to be an unlikely group for currency unification. Older studies suggest that multiple currency union groupings may be possible in the short run that could be unified into a whole at an unspecified time in the future. The issue has been studied for some time and appeared defunct with the onset of the Asian Financial Crisis. More than a decade has passed and another more global financial crisis has ensued leaving many Asian countries in better shape than their highly developed trading partners in the west. This leads to the need for further examination of the possible unification of some or all ASEAN members into a Regional Currency Arrangement. This dissertation evaluates the readiness of the ASEAN nations for monetary union using data from the post Asian Financial Crisis period. Results of a formal G-PPP test show the area is an optimum currency area. Analysis of other criteria shows incredible diversity across the countries in the region that would make unification a challenge. Coordination of monetary policy would be most difficult given the variety of inflation rates and differences in depth of financial system development as explored in chapter 2. Trade has increased in the region leading to better linkages among economies but the data shows that reaching full integration of all countries by the 2020 deadline without disruptions in some economies may still be difficult.
168

Nonlinear Time Series Models with Applications in Macroeconomics and Finance / Modèles de séries temporelles non linéaires avec des applications en Macroéconomie et Finance

Zeng, Songlin 16 October 2013 (has links)
Les trois chapitres suivants examinent: 1) si les taux de change réels d'Asie du Sud-Est sont nonlinéaire, 2) l'inférence bayésienne sur le modèle de série temporelle nonlinéaire avec des applications sur le taux de change réel,et 3) la cyclicité et effet de rebond dans le marché boursier.Depuis la fin des années nonante, les analyses théorique et empirique consacrée au taux de change réel suggèrent que la dynamique pourrait être bien estimés par les modèles non linéaires. Le premier chapitre examine cette possibilité utilisant les données mensuelles de l'ASEAN-5, et il s'étend la recherche existante dans deux directions. Tout d'abord, nous utilisons récemment mis au point des tests de racine unitaire ce qui permettra d'assouplir les modèles non linéaires stationnaires dans le cadre du d'autre alternative que l'couramment utilisés à SETAR ou ESTAR modèle. Deuxièmement, bien que différents modèles nonlinéaires survivre aux tests de mis-spécification, une expérience Monte Carlo à partir de généralisées fonctions de réponse impulsionnelle est utilisé pour comparer leur pertinence relative. Nos résultats i) soutenir l'hypothèse de retour nonlinéaire à la moyenne , et donc la parité de pouvoir d'achat, dans la moitié des cas et ii) indiquent MRLSTAR et ESTAR comme les plus probables processus générant des taux de change réels.Le deuxième chapitre analyse ACR modèle. Nous proposons une approche bayésienne complète d'inférence et une attention particulière est portée sur les paramètres des variables de seuil. Nous discutons le choix des distributions a priori et proposer une chaîne de Markov algorithme de Monte Carlo pour estimer les paramètres et les variables latentes. Une étude de simulation et de l'application à des données taux de change réelles illustrer l'analyse.Le troisième chapitre explore que les différentes formes de recouvrements dans les marchés financiers peuvent présenter dans un modèle de Markov Switching. Elle s'appuie sur les effets de rebond d'abord analysé par Kim, Morley et Piger [2005] dans le cycle des affaires et généralisé par Bec, Bouabdallah et Ferrara [2011] pour permettre une plus souple de type rebond.Nos résultats i) montrer que l'effet de rebond est statistiquement significative et importante dans tous les cas, mais l'Allemagne où la preuve est moins claire et ii) l'impact négatif permanent de marchés baissiers sur l'indice est notablement réduite lorsque le rebond est explicitement pris en compte. / The following three chapters investigate: 1) whether Southeast Asian real exchange rates are nonlinear mean reverting, 2) bayesian inference on nonlinear time series model with applications in real exchange rate, and 3)cyclicality and bounce-back effect in stock market. Since the late nineties, both theoretical and empirical analyses devoted to the real exchange rate suggest that their dynamics might be well approximated by nonlinear models. This paper examines this possibility for post-1970 monthly ASEAN-5 data, extending the existing research in two directions. First, we use recently developed unit root tests which allow for more flexible nonlinear stationary models under the alternative than the commonly used Self-Exciting Threshold or Exponential Smooth Transition AutoRegressions. Second, while different nonlinear models survive the mis-specification tests, a Monte Carlo experiment from generalized impulse response functions is used to compare their relative relevance. Our results support the nonlinear mean-reverting hypothesis, and hence the Purchasing Power Parity, in half the cases and point to the Multiple Regime-Logistic Smooth Transition and the Self-Exciting Threshold AutoRegressive models as the most likely data generating processes of these real exchange rates.Various nonlinear threshold models are employed to mimic the real exchange rate dynamics. A natural question arises: Which model does the best job of modeling the real exchange rate process? It is difficult and not straightforward to formally compare the nonlinear models within classic approach. In the second chapter, we propose to use Bayesian approach to address this issue. The second part of my dissertation actually uses a Bayesian method to estimate some nonlinear time series models, the ACR model, SETAR model, and MAR model. We propose a full Bayesian inference approach and particular attention is paid to the parameters of the threshold variables. We discuss the choice of the prior distributions and propose a Markov-chain Monte Carlo algorithm for estimating both the parameters and the latent variables. A simulation study and the application to real exchange rate data illustrate the analysis. Our empirical results of the second chapter show that i) Bayesian estimations closely match those of the Maximum likelihood for French real exchange rate vis-a-vis Deutsche Mark; ii)the speed of real exchange rate's adjustment to equilibrium level is overestimated if heterogeneous variances in two regimes is not taken into account; iii) ACR model is preferred to other nonlinear threshold models, SETAR and MAR; iv) within ACR class models, the suitable transition function form is selected based on Bayes factor.This paper proposes an empirical study of the shape of recoveries in financial markets from a bounce-back augmented Markov Switching model. It relies on models first applied by Kim, Morley et Piger [2005] to the business cycle analysis. These models are estimated for monthly stock market returns data of five developed countries for the post-1970 period. Focusing on a potential bounce-back effect in financial markets, its presence and shape are formally tested. Our results show that i) the bounce-back effect is statistically significant and large in all countries, but Germany where evidence is less clear-cut and ii) the negative permanent impact of bear markets on the stock price index is notably reduced when the rebound is explicitly taken into account.
169

Munksund 5 : En rättsutredning gällande miljöbalkens efterbehandlingsansvar vid en miljöförorening

Johansson, Malin January 2019 (has links)
Munksund 5 är namnet på en timmerbogseringsbåt som sedan år 1964 ligger under vattenytan i Piteälven. Båten sägs ha förlist med upp emot 6 000 liter tjockolja kvar i tankarna. Det finns idag ingen registrerad ägare till båten. Sommaren 2018 observerades en stor oljefläck i närheten av båtens position. Det bekräftar en miljöförorening men det är fortfarande inte fastställt att oljan kom från Munksund 5. Syftet med denna uppsats har varit att undersöka hur miljöbalken reglerar efterbehandlingsansvaret vid en miljöförorening. Frågeställningarna som väglett arbetet är vad principen om att förorenaren betalar innebär samt vem som kan anses ha avhjälpandeansvaret efter Munksund 5. För att uppfylla syftet med uppsatsen har den rättsdogmatiska metoden använts. Utgångspunkten för metoden är att studera de allmänt accepterade rättskällorna. Av resultatet framgår att det är avgörande om Munksund 5 är att anse som en fristående delverksamhet eller som en integrerad verksamhet med sågverket, för att ansvar ska kunna riktas mot den tidigare verksamhetsutövaren. Det allmänna kommer att få stå för hela, eller stor del, av kostanden för de eventuella efterbehandlingsåtgärderna.
170

Aspectos orçamentários das parcerias público-privadas

Sant'Anna, Lucas de Moraes Cassiano 17 March 2016 (has links)
Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:24:23Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Lucas de Moraes Cassiano Sant anna.pdf: 1056425 bytes, checksum: 994c7ac33a87a4ed9b784bde69addded (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-03-17 / The scarcity of public resources requires the use of ingenious and complex contractual arrangements by the Public Administration to provide at the same time investments in the country s infrastructure and high quality public services. Public-Private Partnerships arise, as well as a way to make the necessary investments without compromising the public budget immediately, as they allow the dilution of the payment for the infrastructure and services provided over up to 35 years. The assumption of obligations by the Public Administration has, however, impacts on the budget, since it binds many other agents to the consideration of payment assumed in chronologically earlier time. Moreover, the assumption of the payment of consideration could mean the same as take on debt, increasing the debts of Public Sector. These aspects will be analyzed throughout this work. The path to that answer begins in the analysis of the historical context of the creation of the PPP model. As a second step, we treat the organization of the public budget in Brazil and define basic concepts of financial law, such as public debt. Within this context, we identified the treatment of expenditure on PPPs, in accordance with the National Treasury. Then we analyze the essential characteristics of PPP contracts and differentiate it from loans natural public debt generators. Then, we dedicate to addressing the issue of Ordinance 614, of the National Treasury. This is the valid and legitimate instrument to establish the parameters for the accounting of PPPs as debt, in very specific cases. Ordinance STN 614 is an accounting tool, but it has great links with legal concepts that must be properly handled by the legal profession, especially when it comes to allocation of risks of PPP contracts. The way the risks of construction, availability and demand have been allocated will determine eventually the accounting of expenses a given PPP as public debt. Finally, we conclude that PPPs are indeed important contractual arrangements and the rules of budgetary control force point the way to the Public Administration to use the institute to the fullest and avoid deviations that could lead to excessive public debt and the lack of control of public expenditures / A escassez de recursos estatais exige a utilização de arranjos contratuais engenhosos e complexos para que a Administração Pública possa, ao mesmo tempo, continuar prestando serviços essenciais aos administrados e realizar investimentos na infraestrutura do país. As Parcerias Público-Privadas surgem, assim, como uma forma de se realizar os investimentos necessários sem comprometer o orçamento público de maneira imediata, já que permitem diluir o pagamento pela infraestrutura e serviços prestados ao longo de até 35 anos. Essa assunção de obrigação pela Administração Pública tem, no entanto, impactos no orçamento, já que vincula muitos outros mandatários ao pagamento de contraprestação assumida em momento cronologicamente anterior. Ademais, a assunção do pagamento dessas contraprestações poderia significar o mesmo que assumir uma dívida, aumentando-se, assim, o endividamento do ente. Essas são as análises feitas ao longo deste trabalho. O caminho para essa resposta começa pela identificação do contexto histórico de criação desse modelo. Como segundo passo, tratamos da organização do orçamento público no Brasil e de definir conceitos básicos de direito financeiro, como dívida pública. Já nesse contexto, identificamos o tratamento das despesas com PPPs dado pela Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional. A seguir, falamos sobre as características essenciais dos contratos de PPP e as diferenciamos das operações de crédito, geradoras de dívida pública. Na sequência, nos dedicamos ao tema da Portaria 614, da Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional. Esse é o instrumento vigente e legítimo a estabelecer os parâmetros para a contabilização das PPPs como endividamento, em casos muito específicos. A Portaria STN 614 é um instrumento contábil, mas que tem grande interligação com conceitos jurídicos que devem ser propriamente manejados por profissionais do direito, sobretudo quando se trata de alocação dos riscos dos contratos de PPPs, os quais são minutados por esses profissionais. É a forma como os riscos de construção, disponibilidade e demanda foram alocados que determinará, eventualmente, a contabilização das despesas com determinada PPP como dívida pública. Por fim, concluímos que as PPPs são, de fato, instrumentos contratuais importantes e que as regras de controle orçamentário vigentes indicam o caminho para a Administração Pública se utilizar do instituto na plenitude, bem como evitar desvios que poderiam levar ao endividamento público exagerado e ao descontrole das despesas públicas

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