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Previsão de séries temporais epidemiológicas usando autômatos celulares e algoritmos genéticosGerardi, Davi de Oliveira 02 August 2010 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2010-08-02 / SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) and SIR (susceptible-infectedremoved) epidemiological models based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) are used in order to simulate the temporal evolution of the number of people infected by dengue in the city of Rio de Janeiro in 2007, and to predict the cases of infection in 2008. In the PCA, three different sizes of lattices and two kinds of neighborhoods are utilized, and each time step of simulation is equivalent to one week of real time. A genetic algorithm (GA) is employed to identify the probabilities of the state transition S→I, in order to reproduce the historical series of 2007 related to this disease propagation. These probabilities depend on the number of infected neighbors. Time-varying and constant
probabilities are taken into account. These models based on PCA and GA were able of satisfactorily fitting the data from 2007 and making a good prediction for 2008 (mainly about the total number of cases registered during 2008). / Usam-se modelos epidemiológicos SIS (suscetível-infectado-suscetível) e SIR (suscetível-infectado-removido) baseados em autômato celular probabilista (ACP) a fim de simular a evolução temporal do número de pessoas infectadas por dengue, na cidade do Rio de Janeiro em 2007, e de prever os casos de infecção em 2008. No ACP, utilizam-se reticulados de três tamanhos diferentes e dois tipos de vizinhanças, e cada passo de tempo da simulação equivale a uma semana de tempo real. Emprega-se um algoritmo genético (AG) para identificar os valores das probabilidades da transição de estados S→I, de modo a reproduzir a série histórica de 2007 relacionada à propagação dessa doença. Essas probabilidades dependem do número de vizinhos infectados. Probabilidades variantes e invariantes no tempo são consideradas. Esses modelos baseados em ACP e AG foram capazes de fazer um ajuste satisfatório dos dados de 2007 e de fornecerem uma boa previsão para 2008, (principalmente no que diz respeito ao número total de casos registrados em 2008).
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Argentine: de la révolte vers un nouveau cycle de gouvernance :l'expérience du mouvement des entreprises récupérées par les travailleursHirtz, Natalia Vanesa 17 September 2014 (has links)
Un nouveau mouvement social est né en Argentine en 2001, dans un contexte de crise socio-économique sans précédent dans l’histoire du pays :le mouvement des entreprises récupérées par les travailleurs. <p>La récupération des entreprises s’est développée comme une alternative à leur fermeture :les travailleurs occupent l’entreprise et relancent la production et la vente de produits. Ce mouvement surgit dans un moment historique de luttes sociales où le rapport de forces est favorable aux travailleurs, permettant le développement de pratiques en dehors du cadre déterminé par la loi. Or, la production et la commercialisation des produits ne sont pas durables sans l’obtention d’une autorisation légale. Les travailleurs s’organiseront et développeront diverses stratégies pour leur reconnaissance juridique et politique. <p>En dépit de l’abondante production scientifique concernant les entreprises récupérées, beaucoup d’éléments restent à examiner. La plupart des recherches se sont centrées sur deux questions majeures :l’analyse des résultats de la lutte des travailleurs, c’est-à-dire les pratiques sociales et économiques développées dans le processus productif ;et l’étude sur les stratégies politiques, souvent réduites aux actions juridiques, entamées par les travailleurs afin de récupérer l’entreprise. Mais force est de constater qu’il n’existe pas de recherches spécifiques sur le processus de lutte, de formation et de dissolution des organisations des entreprises récupérées. Dans ce sens, le mouvement des entreprises récupérées est souvent présenté comme étant un mouvement uniforme. Certes, des recherches s’intéressent aux rapports sociaux et politiques contenus dans le processus de lutte des travailleurs, mais il s’agit d’études de cas centrées sur l’analyse de certaines entreprises récupérées. L’ambition de la présente thèse est de pallier l’absence d’étude sur le processus de formation et développement du mouvement des entreprises récupérées. Elle cherche à relier l’expérience des travailleurs et celle du mouvement. Ces expériences se déroulent dans un moment historique essentiel d’institutionnalisation des organisations sociales nées durant un cycle de révolte. Notre étude cherche à déceler le processus par lequel certaines organisations du mouvement des entreprises récupérées ont participé à ces transformations (tandis que d’autres furent exclues des négociations) ainsi que l’impact de cette ouverture politique sur le mouvement des entreprises récupérées. Pour cela, nous analysons les influences réciproques sur la construction de ce mouvement :les formes de gestion, d’organisation et les relations de travail au sein des entreprises récupérées ;les trajectoires de lutte et les diverses organisations qui en résultent, en relation permanente avec l’évolution des réalités économiques, politiques et sociales spécifiques à chaque période envisagée. À cette fin, nous avons procédé à une étude extensive et intensive. L’intérêt de combiner ces approches répond à l’objectif général de cerner les rapports complexes et dynamiques qui lient ces deux niveaux d’analyse dans le processus de construction d’un acteur social. Étant donné que les analyses extensives existant avant 2010, étaient insuffisantes pour répondre à bon nombre des questions posées par cette thèse, nous avons élaboré notre propre analyse statistique. Cette démarche nous permet d’appréhender le phénomène dans son ampleur, mais elle n’est pas pertinente pour comprendre en profondeur les pratiques concrètes des travailleurs et de leurs organisations. En revanche, l’analyse qualitative, dépourvue d’une approche extensive, risque de nous enfermer sur l’étude des situations particulières sans comprendre le processus global. Ces deux démarches sont donc complémentaires. Dans ce sens, nous avons interviewé des dirigeants des diverses organisations des entreprises récupérées, des avocats et enfin des travailleurs de six entreprises récupérées. Dans trois d’entre elles, nous avons réalisé une enquête de terrain. Ces entreprises récupérées sont Brukman, Zanón et la Clinique Junín. <p> / Doctorat en sciences sociales, Orientation sociologie / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
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Temporal delay discounting in acutely ill and weight-recovered patients with anorexia nervosaRitschel, F., King, J. A., Geisler, D., Flohr, L., Neidel, F., Boehm, I., Seidel, M., Zwipp, J., Ripke, S., Smolka, M. N., Roessner, V., Ehrlich, S. 11 June 2020 (has links)
Background. Patients with anorexia nervosa (AN) are characterized by a very low body weight but readily give up immediate rewards (food) for long-term goals (slim figure), which might indicate an unusual level of self-control. This everyday clinical observation may be quantifiable in the framework of the anticipation-discounting dilemma. Method. Using a cross-sectional design, this study compared the capacity to delay reward in 34 patients suffering from acute AN (acAN), 33 weight-recovered AN patients (recAN) and 54 healthy controls. We also used a longitudinal study to reassess 21 acAN patients after short-term weight restoration. A validated intertemporal choice task and a hyperbolic model were used to estimate temporal discounting rates. Results. Confirming the validity of the task used, decreased delay discounting was associated with age and low selfreported impulsivity. However, no group differences in key measures of temporal discounting of monetary rewards were found. Conclusions. Increased cognitive control, which has been suggested as a key characteristic of AN, does not seem to extend the capacity to wait for delayed monetary rewards. Differences between our study and the only previous study reporting decreased delay discounting in adult AN patients may be explained by the different age range and chronicity of acute patients, but the fact that weight recovery was not associated with changes in discount rates suggests that discounting behavior is not a trait marker in AN. Future studies using paradigms with disorder-specific stimuli may help to clarify the role of delay discounting in AN.
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Argentina’s Worker-Recovered Factories : strategies and survivalEl-Najjar, Ziad 08 1900 (has links)
No description available.
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Optimal Control of Information Epidemics in Homogeneously And Heterogeneously Mixed PopulationsKandhway, Kundan January 2016 (has links) (PDF)
Social networks play an important role in disseminating a piece of information in a population. Companies advertising a newly launched product, movie promotion, political campaigns, social awareness campaigns by governments, charity campaigns by NGOs and crowd funding campaigns by entrepreneurs are a few examples where an entity is interested in disseminating a piece of information in a target population, possibly under resource constraints.
In this thesis we model information diffusion in a population using various epidemic models and study optimal campaigning strategies to maximize the reach of information. In the different problems considered in this thesis, information epidemics are modeled as the Susceptible-Infected, Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered and Maki Thompson epidemic processes; however, we modify the models to incorporate the intervention made by the campaigner to enhance information propagation. Direct recruitment of individuals as spreaders and providing word-of-mouth incentives to the spreaders are considered as two intervention strategies (controls) to enhance the speed of information propagation. These controls can be implemented by placing advertisements in the mass media, announcing referral/cash back rewards for introducing friends to a product or service being advertised etc.
In the different problems considered in this thesis, social contacts are modeled with varying levels of complexity---population is homogeneously mixed or follows heterogeneous mixing. The solutions to the problems which consider homogeneous mixing of individuals identify the most important periods in the campaign duration which should be allocated more resources to maximize the reach of the message, depending on the system parameters of the epidemic model (e.g., epidemics with high and low virulence). When a heterogeneous model is considered, apart from this, the solution identifies the important classes of individuals which should be allocated more resources depending upon the network considered (e.g. Erdos-Renyi, scale-free) and model parameters. These classes may be carved out based on various centrality measures in the network. If multiple strategies are available for campaigning, the solution also identifies the relative importance of the strategies depending on the network type.
We study variants of the optimal campaigning problem where we optimize different objective functions. For some of the formulated problems, we discuss the existence and uniqueness of the solution. Sometimes our formulations call for novel techniques to prove the existence of a solution.
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Action in Chronic Fatigue Syndrome: an Enactive Psycho-phenomenological and Semiotic Analysis of Thirty New Zealand Women's Experiences of Suffering and RecoveryHart, M J Alexandra January 2010 (has links)
This research into Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (CFS) presents the results of 60 first-person psycho-phenomenological interviews with 30 New Zealand women. The participants were recruited from the Canterbury and Wellington regions, 10 had recovered. Taking a non-dual, non-reductive embodied approach, the phenomenological data was analysed semiotically, using a graph-theoretical cluster analysis to elucidate the large number of resulting categories, and interpreted through the enactive approach to cognitive science.
The initial result of the analysis is a comprehensive exploration of the experience of CFS which develops subject-specific categories of experience and explores the relation of the illness to universal categories of experience, including self, ‘energy’, action, and being-able-to-do.
Transformations of the self surrounding being-able-to-do and not-being-able-to-do were shown to elucidate the illness process.
It is proposed that the concept ‘energy’ in the participants’ discourse is equivalent to the Mahayana Buddhist concept of ‘contact’. This characterises CFS as a breakdown of contact. Narrative content from the recovered interviewees reflects a reestablishment of contact.
The hypothesis that CFS is a disorder of action is investigated in detail.
A general model for the phenomenology and functional architecture of action is proposed. This model is a recursive loop involving felt meaning, contact, action, and perception and appears to be phenomenologically supported.
It is proposed that the CFS illness process is a dynamical decompensation of the subject’s action loop caused by a breakdown in the process of contact.
On this basis, a new interpretation of neurological findings in relation to CFS becomes possible. A neurological phenomenon that correlates with the illness and involves a brain region that has a similar structure to the action model’s recursive loop is identified in previous research results and compared with the action model and the results of this research. This correspondence may identify the brain regions involved in the illness process, which may provide an objective diagnostic test for the condition and approaches to treatment.
The implications of this model for cognitive science and CFS should be investigated through neurophenomenological research since the model stands to shed considerable light on the nature of consciousness, contact and agency.
Phenomenologically based treatments are proposed, along with suggestions for future research on CFS. The research may clarify the diagnostic criteria for CFS and guide management and treatment programmes, particularly multidimensional and interdisciplinary approaches.
Category theory is proposed as a foundation for a mathematisation of phenomenology.
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